Nuclear India Dr.Arunachalam (Barc)

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Nuclear India Dr.Arunachalam (Barc)

  1. 1. Why Nuclear Electricity for India? V S Arunachalam Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, Bangalore, INDIA & Department of Engineering & Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, USA
  2. 2. Growth of India’s Power Sector 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 InstalledGenerationCapacity(GW) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year PerCapitaConsumption(kWh) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 NumberofVillagesElectrified (Projected) • Serious Growth after 60’s • Generation 6th largest in world • Per capita consumption low • Close to 95% villages electrified Ministry of Power, Government of India
  3. 3. The Status Coal 67166 Gas 11840 Diesel 1196 Hydro 30135 Nuclear 2720 Wind 2488 • Installed Capacity > 120 GW • Gross Generation: 620 billion kWh • Per Capita Consumption ~ 600 kWh • Coal dominant energy source (58%) Ministry of Power, Government of India
  4. 4. India’s Future Growth • India needs sustained economic growth > 8% to radically improve its HDI • Growth in last few years ~ 5%- 7% • Growth hampered by infrastructure: electric power – Peak shortfall – Average shortfall – High T&D Losses: – Unscheduled black-outs, especially in rural areas – Supply to agriculture sector not metered and almost free Source: Groningen Growth and Development Center Total Economy Database, http://www.ggdc.net/.
  5. 5. Growth Areas • Present growth is skills or resource driven (exports: software, gems and jewels, garment manufacture) • Future Growth will have to be on value addition & engineering • Rural sector to play a major role (agricultural and dairy produce; minimizing wastage and improving efficiency) • Infrastructure building (roads, buildings, railroads etc.,) • Manufacturing The elasticity has to be greater than 1 for powering future growth
  6. 6. Elasticity and Electric Power Needs • Target economic growth ~ 8% • Elasticity of electricity with GDP stabilizing at ~ 1.2 • Implications for future electric power requirements by 2015: – Capacity addition – Investments – Fuel mix – Pricing and Policies – T&D reforms 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1951- 56 1956- 61 1961- 66 1969- 74 1974- 78 1980- 85 1985- 90 1992- 97 ElasticityofGenerationvsGDP Review of State Electricity Boards
  7. 7. Electric Power Requirements Generation(billionkWh) Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Key GDP Growth Rate 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1 Required for 8% economic growth by 2015: Installed Capacity 250 GW Generation 1500 billion kWh Per Capita Consumption 1000 kWh CapacityNeeded(GW) Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 Key GDP Growth Rate 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1
  8. 8. The Task Ahead • Need to add 135 GW in ten years – 13,500 MW required per annum – ~ One power plant per month – China adds one per week !! – Maximum added till now is 4,600 MW (One in four months) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 AnnualCapacityAddition(MW) Annual added capacity Total Capacity addition required
  9. 9. Fuel Supply: Options for Future • Coal – Conventional – Gasification • Natural Gas • Hydro • Nuclear – PHWR + FB + AHWR – PLWR • Wind – On-shore – Off-shore • Biomass • Solar – Photo voltaic – Concentrating Solar Power Fuel Present In 2015 Coal 67,166 MW ? Gas 11,840 MW ? Hydro 30,135 MW ? Nuclear 2,720 MW ? Wind 2,488 MW ? Biomass 1,000 MW ? Solar - ? TOTAL 115,035 MW 250,000 MW
  10. 10. King Coal ! • Reserves – Proven 91 billion Tons – Indicated 116 billion Tons – Inferred 37 billion Tons – TOTAL 245 billion Tons • Coal reserves: > 250 years at present levels of consumption • Concentrated in Eastern India Madhya Pradesh 7% Others 13% Jharkhand 29% Chattisgarh 16% West Bengal 11% Orissa 24%
  11. 11. Indian Coal Quality • High ash: 25%-45% • Low sulfur < 0.5% • Low energy content • CO2 emissions > 1 kg per kWh • Issues with coal: – Ash disposal: annual ash generation > 90 million tons – CO2 emissions Heating Value (BTU/lb) Ash Content (%) Sulfur (%) Illinois # 6 10,900 11.00 3.25 Wyodak 11,960 5.97 0.40 WPC Utah 11,240 5.32 0.61 Indian Coal 6,500 25-45 <0.5
  12. 12. Coal: Future Scenarios • Projections of coal demand (2015): – High growth : 580 MT – BAU scenario : 380 MT – Domestic production will not be enough. Imports needed • Issues: – Ash generation > 200 million Tons – CO2 emissions > 850 Million Tons – Particulate and NOx emissions (presently not regulated) – Coal transportation bottleneck: Rail transportation stagnation 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CoalRequirementinPowerSector(MillionTons) Coal Transport by Railways Business as Usual Accelerated growth scenario
  13. 13. India’s CO2 Emissions • India’s fossil based CO2 emissions in 2003: – Coal 666 MMT – Petroleum 305 MMT – Natural Gas 53 MMT • India’s CO2 emissions rapidly growing – Trebled during 1981-2001 • India and China presently not subject to mandatory cuts in CO2 – However future may not be so 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 ShareofGlobalCO2Emissions(%) US Western Europe China India EIA, US Department of Energy India China Total 1980 1.64% 7.83% 9.47% 2003 5.60% 19.34% 24.93% Share of global emissions
  14. 14. Options with Coal • Coal’s dominance will undoubtedly continue. – Availability – Cheap • The question is: How much do we want to add with coal given the constraints of quality, transportation, carbon emissions and environmental issues. Installed Capacity of Coal (GW) Coal Required (Million MT) CO2 Emissions (Million MT) Upper Case Coal still contributes 60% of capacity ~ 150 GW 580 MMT 850 MMT Lower Case Aggressive deployment of nuclear and natural gas technologies ~ 120 GW 470 MMT 690 MMT Coal scenarios for high economic growth ~ 8%
  15. 15. Hydro-Electricity • Inferred potential > 120 GW • Installed capacity 30 GW • Most big projects are in North- Eastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttaranchal and J&K • Problems of rehabilitation and resettlement with large projects • Environmental issues • Water sharing agreements with neighbors National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India
  16. 16. Hydro-Electric Potential State Capacity (MW) Dulhasti J&K 390 Dhauliganga Stage - I * Uttaranchal 140 Teesta Stage V Sikkim 510 Loktak Downstream Manipur 90 Parbati-II Himachal Pradesh 800 Sewa-II J&K 120 Subansiri Lower Arunachal Pradesh 2000 Teesta Lower Dam-III West Bengal 132 Omkareshwar Madhya Pradesh 520 TOTAL 4702 Details of projects under construction Projects awaiting clearance and government approval 2,570 MW Projects at DPR and infrastructure development stage 11,620 MW Projects under survey and investigation 11,000 MW Ongoing and Planned Projects Possible to add 10,000 MW by 2015
  17. 17. Natural Gas • Fastest growing primary fuel, worldwide • Indian statistics (2004-05): Consumption: > 31 BCM/year Primary uses: Power 41% Fertilizer 32% Sponge Iron 4% Other 23% Growing needs for transportation (and some cooking) Latent demand estimated as high as 80 BCM (depends on price, of course)
  18. 18. Natural Gas Pipelines Indore - onwards to India TAPS TAPS (across water) CENTGAS - to Pakistan Indore Baroda 333333333 KarachiGwadar 222222222 444444444 Gas supplyConsumption center New Delhi Multan 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 111111111 Pakistan Afghanistan Iran Turkmenistan Qatar India Oman Gas Authority of India Limited India’s Gas Pipelines Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999)
  19. 19. Imports of Gas • LNG growing (5+ million tons/annum), but prices remain high – 1 ton LNG can power ~ 1 GW of power – 1 BCM gas ~ .8 GW of power thus, 20 BCM ~ 16,000 MW of gas power • Initial imports won’t necessarily add to elec. capacity – Will substitute naphtha in power plants and find other uses as well • More than half the fertilizer feedstock is gas • Industry has already claimed the bulk of current LNG supplies
  20. 20. Biomass • India predominantly agricultural country. • Annual production of agro-forest and processing residues: 350 million tons • Power generation potential > 22,000 MW • Advantages: – Decentralized generation: close to rural load centers. – Technology reasonably well developed – Environmentally friendly: No net CO2 emissions Feedstock Examples Potential Installed Agro-forest residues Wood chips, mulberry, coconut shells 17,000 MW 50 MW Processing residues Rice husk, sugarcane bagasse 5,000 MW 1000 MW
  21. 21. Biomass Conversion Technologies • Gasifier-reciprocating engine – Power plants of 5 kW – 100 kW possible – Diesel engine needs ~ 15%-20% for ignition • Cost of electricity is high – Gas engine can operate on 100% syngas – Overall efficiency ~ 20% – Largest gasifier 100 kW • Fluidized bed combustion boilers – Rice husk and bagasse – 25%-30% – Power plants of 5 MW – 35 MW operating in various sugar mills – Producing electricity is sweeter than sugar !! 50 kW biomass gasifier power plant in Karnataka
  22. 22. Biomass for Decentralized Rural Power • Electric power requirement of typical Indian village < 100 kW – ~ 75% is irrigation pumps – Presently these get virtually free, un-metered grid supply of poor quality, few hours a day • Locally available biomass can sustain a plant of 25 kW-100 kW – Gasifier-reciprocating engine technology is fairly robust • Cost of generation reasonable – $ 0.06-0.07 per kWh • BUT, still widespread dissemination not visible: – Economics unviable due to low PLF – People not willing to pay when state gives free ! – Loss of organic fertilizer on land • Good potential from bagasse and husk: – Can expect to add 3000 MW by 2015.
  23. 23. Wind Energy • Gross potential : 45,000 MW (assuming 1% land availability in potential areas) • Technical potential : 13,000 MW (assuming 20% grid penetration in potential areas) • Rapid growth in installed capacity from 1990s • India ranks 5th in the world – Present installed capacity ~ 3000 MW • Site selection issues: – More from fiscal benefits than from power – Many plants not operating – Low average load factor~13% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Germany Spain US Denmark India Italy Netherlands UK Japan China InstalledCapacity(MW) Global Wind Energy Council World Wind Installed Capacity (2005)
  24. 24. Wind Speed Maps of Selected Countries Denmark In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2) in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2) and US US
  25. 25. Off-shore Wind in Europe • Europe and US have taken up several off-shore projects. • Wind speeds higher • Distance from shore in some cases ~ 30 – 40 km ! Country Capacity Depth (m) Distance from Shore (km) Remarks Denmark 160 MW 6 – 12 m 14 – 20 km Completed UK 60 MW 4 – 8 m 2.3 km Completed Denmark 23 MW 20 m 3.5 km Completed Denmark 5 MW 3 – 5 m 6 km Completed Sweden 10 MW 6 – 10 m 5 km Completed Germany 1040 MW 30 m 43 – 50 km Planned Netherlands 120 MW 20 – 24 m 23 km Planned Germany 240 MW 20 m 34 km Planned Ireland 520 MW 2 – 5 m 10 km Partly complete
  26. 26. India: Off Shore Wind Scenario 0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0 1 8 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 4 0 0 D is t a n c e ( K m ) 0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0 1 8 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 4 0 0 D is t a n c e ( K m ) 0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0 1 8 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 4 0 0 Distance(Km) 0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0 1 8 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 4 0 0 Distance(Km) B a t h y m e t r y o f In d ia n S e a s D e p t h ( m e t r e s )
  27. 27. Nuclear Power: The Present Status 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1969 1973 1981 1984 1986 1991 1992 1993 1995 2000 2005 2006 2015 InstalledCapacity(MW) Planned Presently installed
  28. 28. Indian Nuclear Program: The Present Status • 12 PHWR & 2 BWR now under operation • 4 PHWR and 2 LWR under commission • 2950 MW generation & 3000 MW under commission • Successful experiments with Fast Breeder Test Reactor (FBTR) • Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) for 500MWe under construction • Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) using (Pu-Th) O2 MOX for 300MWe: advanced stage of design approval; construction soon to begin.
  29. 29. Indian Nuclear Program: The Constraints • Uranium ore reserves for only 10,000MWe for 40 years • Non-signatory to NPT: no access to global technologies, materials or services • Slow growth of nuclear electric power: ~1000 MWe annually • Major dependence on Pu and U233 MOX for fuel • Complex fuel technologies. Total capacity limited
  30. 30. Why Cooperate? • India needs electric power now, more than ever, for human development and growth • It must generate power from all energy sources • Excessive and continued dependence on coal contributes to environmental degradation & global warming • Limitations of renewable energy sources
  31. 31. Why Cooperate? • Politics of Non-Proliferation: Power & Responsibility • R&D: cooperation and Collaboration • Bilateral trade & economic issues • Sharing global energy resources • Environmental concerns • Shared vision: secular, democratic & caring society
  32. 32. Why Cooperate? Climate change is a greater threat to humanity than terrorism, and no less urgent. ---David King, Science Advisor to Prime Minister of UK
  33. 33. An Action Plan Until Nuclear Fusion and Hydrogen technologies mature • Minimizing wastage; energy conservation; Development of Energy Plan • Installation of nuclear power ( 34GW in 10 years) • Investments in R&D to make renewable technologies efficient, sustainable &affordable
  34. 34. An Action Plan • Strict enforcement of export controls of technologies, equipment and services • Nuclear power reactors under international safeguards • Collaboration in developing technologies for utilizing MOX fuels for electric power generation • Participation in Gen. 4 R&D initiatives
  35. 35. Indian Energy Scenarios: 2015 Coal 60.44% Gas 14.49% Diesel 0.48% Nuclear 5.06% Hydro 15.96% Solar thermal 0.40% Biomass 1.19% Wind 1.99% Gas 14.49% Diesel 0.48% Nuclear 14.60% Hydro 15.96% Solar thermal 0.40% Biomass 1.19% Wind 1.99% Coal 50.90% Same Fuel Mix as now Aggressive Nuclear Capacity Addition • Reduction in annual coal consumption ~ 100 Million Tons • Reduction in annual CO2 Emissions > 170 Million Tons • ~ Total present CO2 emissions of Netherlands !
  36. 36. Primary energy consumption per capita
  37. 37. What If…. India & China Were “Developed”by 2013? • Expected Carbon Emission: 14,400 Million Tons (2.5 times present global emissions !!) • CO2 concentration > 400 ppm • Temperature rise > 0.5 C 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 OECD India China Others 2002 2013 Global Carbon Emissions (Million Tons per Year) US > 14,000 India 600 China 1300 Present Electricity Per Capita (kWh) Target: 14,000 kWh by 2013 (Calculations Based on Data in Climate Change 2001, IPCC)
  38. 38. What If India & China Guzzle Oil? 0 40 80 120 160 India China US Other OECD Others MillionBarrelsperDay 2003 2013 Global Oil Consumption (Million Barrels per Day) US > 750 India 4 China 8 Present Number of Cars per 1000 • World Oil Consumption: 387 Million Barrels a Day • At Present 77 Million Barrels a Day • Oil reserves deplete in 8 years !! • At Present 42 years Target: 250 Cars per 1000
  39. 39. I saw God In the smile of the poor Mahatma Gandhi
  40. 40. The cost of Power 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Plant Capacity (kW) CostofGeneration (RsperkWh) Utility's Cost of Supply Residential Tariff Irrigation Tariff

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