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Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation in Myanmar

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The Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), together with the Ministry of Electricity and Energy of the Union of Myanmar, launched Myanmar National Energy Statistics 2019 in Nay Pyi Taw on 11 March 2019.
in his presentation, Mr Shigeru Kimura, ERIA’s Special Adviser to the President on Energy Affairs, discussed the basic concept of energy balance tables, analysis of the energy demand supply situation in Myanmar, as well as the key findings and policy implications of the study.

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Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation in Myanmar

  1. 1. Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation in Myanmar Special Adviser to the President on Energy Affairs Mr. Shigeru Kimura Launching Ceremony and Workshop on 1st Myanmar Energy Statistics 11th March 2019 Park Royal Hotel, NayPyiTaw, Myanmar
  2. 2. Contents • Basic Concept of Energy Balance Tables • Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation in Myanmar • Key Findings and Policy Implications • Conclusion
  3. 3. Energy Balance Table • Primary Energy Statistics – Coal: Production, import/export and consumption data (ton) – Crude oil: Production, export and refining (ton) – Petroleum products: Import, refining and sales data (ton) – Gas: Production, export and consumption (m3) – Electricity: Supply to demand data (watt hour) – Renewable: Supply to demand data (ton, cubic ton, watt hour) • Demerits of Primary Energy Statistics – Different unit does not allow us to compare volume of each energy – Different unit does not allow us to calculate total energy consumption at country level • Need of Secondary Energy Statistics such as Energy Balance Table
  4. 4. Energy Balance Table • Energy Balance Table (EBT) – Unit is thermal quantity • Calorie, joule, BTU (British thermal unit) • Toe (ton oil equivalent), Tce (ton coal equivalent) TJ Gcal Mtoe MBtu TJ 1 2.388x102 2.388x10-5 9.478x102 Gcal 4.187x10-3 1 1.000x10-7 3.968 Mtoe 4.187x104 1.000x107 1 3.986x107 MBtu 1.055x10-3 2.520x10-1 2.520x10-8 1 General Conversion Factors for Energy Source: IEA
  5. 5. Energy Balance Table • Energy Balance Table (EBT) – Thermal conversion factor (NCV) • Coal: thermal conversion factors depend on kinds of coal (low rank to high rank) – Ex: Sub-bituminous 0.4513 toe/ton, lignite 0.2842 toe/ton • Crude oil: 1.0101 toe/ton • Petroleum products: Gasoline 1.0579 toe/ton, diesel 1.0268 toe/ton • Gas:0.9600 toe/1000 c3 • Electricity: 0.086 toe/MWh • Renewable (biomass): Firewood 0.3725 toe/ton, charcoal 0.7045 toe/ton – 1 toe = 107 kcal = 41.868 G-joules
  6. 6. Energy Balance Tables 6 1) Heat Value: Net calorific value  Gross calorific value (GCV) vs net calorific value (NCV)  Difference between NCV and GCV: 5% for coal & oil and 10% for gas 2) Thermal Efficiency of Primary Electricity  Hydro power: 100%  Nuclear power: 33%  Geothermal power:10%  Solar, Wind, Tide power: 100% 3) Bunker oil  International marine bunker  Domestic vessels and international vessels  Fuel consumption by domestic vessels is accounted for Myanmar energy balance table as final consumption  International aviation bunker  Domestic flights and international flights  Fuel consumption by domestic flights is accounted for Myanmar energy balance table as final consumption
  7. 7. Energy Balance Table • EBT Production Flow Primary Energy Statistic: Coal, Petroleum Products, Electricity, Biomass OGPD: Hub to collect all energy data from other agencies and offices Energy Balance Tables Standard Methodology Thermal Conversion Factors
  8. 8. Energy Balance Table • Structure – Flows • Primary energy supply sector – Indigenous production (+) – Import (+) /export (-) – International marine/aviation bunkers (-) – Stock change (+): defined as opening – closing – Total primary energy supply • Transformation/Energy sector – Refinery: Input crude oil (-) and output petroleum products (+) – Power generation: Input fuel (-) and output electricity (+) • Final consumption sector (activity basis) – Industry: production activities (manufacturing, mining and construction) – Transport: moving activities (road, rail, air and inland waterways) – Others: commercial (building), residential, agriculture, forestry, fishery, etc – Total final energy consumption • Non-energy use – Fuel consumption but not combustion such as lubricant and feedstocks
  9. 9. Energy Balance Table • Structure – Products • Coal & coal products • Crude oil and NGL • Petroleum products • Gas • Hydro, nuclear and geothermal • Solar, wind, tide and biomass • Electricity • Heat • Total – Classification of products • Primary energy – Coal, crude oil & NGL, gas, hydro, nuclear, geothermal, renewable energy • Secondary energy – Coal products, petroleum products, electricity, heat
  10. 10. 10 Myanmar Energy Balance Table in 2016 (Unit: ktoe) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Coal Coal ProductsCrude Oil & NGLPetroleum ProductsGas Hydro Nuclear Geothermal, Solar etc.Others Electricity Heat Total 1. Indigenous Production 209 607 11 16,466 1,043 1 9,069 27,406 2. Imports 208 3,966 4,174 3. Exports -4 -146 -173 -12,834 -205 -13,361 4. International Marine Bunkers -1 -1 13.1 International Aviation Bunkers -89 -89 5. Stock Changes 0 357 -1 355 6. Total Primary Energy Supply 414 461 4,070 3,631 1,043 1 9,069 -205 18,484 7. Transfers 8. Total Transformation Sector -7 2 -418 400 -2,747 -1,043 -1 -141 1,742 -2,213 8.1 Main Activity Producer -5 -19 -2,730 -1,043 -1 1,742 -2,056 8.2 Autoproducers 8.3 Gas Processing -17 -17 8.4 Refineries -418 419 0 8.5 Coal Transformation -2 2 0 8.6 Petrochemical Industry 8.7 Biofuel Processing 8.8 Charcoal Processing -141 -141 8.9 Other Transformation 9. Loss & Own Use -5 -431 -216 -652 10. Discrepancy 0 -43 -261 -23 0 -327
  11. 11. 11 Myanmar Energy Balance Table in 2016 (Unit: ktoe) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Coal Coal ProductsCrude Oil & NGLPetroleum ProductsGas Hydro Nuclear Geothermal, Solar etc.Others Electricity Heat Total 11. Total Final Energy Consumptions 407 2 4,204 430 8,928 1,321 15,292 12. Industry Sector 407 2,037 265 2,633 400 5,743 12.1 Iron and Steel 37 7 44 12.2 Chemical (incl. Petro-Chemical) 117 117 12.3 Non Ferrous Metals 2 2 12.4 Non Metallic Mineral Products 123 119 242 12.5 Transportation Equipment 0 0 12.6 Machinery 5 5 12.7 Mining and Quarrying 12.8 Food, Beverages and Tobacco 6 6 12.9 Pulp, Paper and Printing 0 0 12.10 Wood and Wood Products 12.11 Construction 215 215 12.12 Textiles and Leather 8 8 12.13 Other Industry 247 1,823 2 2,633 400 5,104 13. Transport Sector 2,065 164 2,230 13.2 Domestic Air Transport 128 128 13.3 Road 1,902 164 2,066 13.4 Rail 36 36 13.5 Inland Waterways 13.6 Pipeline Transport 13.7 Other Transport 14. Other Sector 2 102 0 6,294 921 7,320 14.1 Residential & Commercial 2 70 0 6,294 911 7,278 14.1.1 Commerce and Public Services 34 0 2,633 260 2,928 14.1.2 Residential 2 35 3,661 651 4,350 14.2 Agriculture 14.3 Fishing 14.4 Others 32 10 42 15. of which Non-Energy Use 424 105 529 16 Electricity Output in GWh 10 61 8,052 12,125 0 9 0 20,258
  12. 12. Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation • Final Energy Consumption Total final energy consumption increased 3.2% P.A. from 2000 to 2016. Coal marked highest growth rate at 12.8% in the same period, followed by electricity (10.2%), petroleum products (6.2%) and biomass (1.7%). Consequently biomass share surely declined from 75% to 58%. On the other hand, electricity share increased from 3% to 9%. Petroleum products kept 2nd largest share of TFEC and it share increased from 17% in 2000 to 27% in 2016. 9,184 8,837 9,356 9,601 9,602 9,767 10,464 10,870 10,912 10,822 12,458 13,111 12,885 13,061 14,774 15,597 15,292 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 ktoe Coal Petroleum Products Gas Biomass Electricity TFEC 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Coal PetroleumProducts Gas Biomass Electricity
  13. 13. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Total Coal Petroleum Products Gas Electricity Biomass TFEC's increment by Energy (2000-2016) Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation • Final Energy Consumption Most increased energy in 2010-2016 was petroleum products at 2,605 ktoe and followed by biomass (2,082 ktoe), electricity (1,040 ktoe) and coal (349 ktoe). Looking at sectors, share of industry sector still marked dominant in 2016 followed by residential, commercial and transport sector. ktoe 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Industry Transport Service Residential Others
  14. 14. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2000 2005 2010 2016 Increaseof each PetroleumProduct Gasoline Jet Fuel Diesel Oil Fuel Oil LPG Other Total Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation • Petroleum Products (Import) Looking at each petroleum products, gasoline rapidly increased about 4 times from 2000 to 2016, followed by jet fuel, LPG and diesel oil. Growth of gasoline, jet fuel and LPG was much higher than total petroleum product. But a major petroleum product should be diesel oil (its hare was 51% in 2016), followed by gasoline and other petroleum products which consist of lubricants mainly. 2000=100 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2005 2010 2016 Shareof PetroleumProducts Gasoline Jet Fuel Diesel Oil Fuel Oil LPG Other
  15. 15. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016 Power Generation by Sources Hydro Coal Oil Gas Others Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation • Power Generation Major power generation source in Myanmar is hydro power, followed by gas power. Share of both power plants was almost 100% except year 2004-2012 due to coal power generation. But their thermal efficiencies were quite low (15-35%). Installation of CCGT and CCT will be one of options to improve the thermal efficiencies. CCGT has another effect to save gas consumption for power generation and allocate the saved gas to export. GWh 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016 Thermal Efficiency GPP CPP
  16. 16. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016 Total Primary Energy Supply Coal Oil Gas Hydro Biomass Net Trade of Electricity Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation • Primary Energy Supply Primary energy supply defines as energy requirement of Myanmar. Myanmar still depended on biomass even in 2016, followed by oil and gas. But coal and hydropower marked highest growth rates (12% P.A). Consequently biomass share declined from 68% to 49% from 2000 to 2016. On the other hand, gas increased from 13% to 20% as well as petroleum products from 17% to 25% in the same period. ktoe -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016 Energy Shareof TPES Coal Oil Gas Hydro Biomass Net Trade of Electricity
  17. 17. -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 Coal Oil Gas Hydro Biomass Net Trade Total TPES Incrementby Energy in 2000-2016 Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation • Primary Energy Supply Oil marked highest growth at 2,739 ktoe from 2010 to 2016, followed by gas 2,282, biomass 2,081 and coal 354. Import dependency defined as import energy / TPES, which consists of petroleum products and coal showed down uptrend in 2000-2009 but it went up highly in 2010-2016. It seems to be related with increase of foreign investment due to the political change. 2010=100 ktoe 10.2 6.9 5.2 3.6 3.4 3.9 3.9 4.2 3.4 2.3 7.0 6.7 6.2 7.9 11.9 15.0 13.1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 %
  18. 18. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 Shareof FossilFuels to TPES 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016 Relation between TPES and CO2 TPES CO2 Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation • CO2 Emissions CO2 emissions increased following to growth of TPES from 2000 to 2016 but after 2015, increase of CO2 emissions were higher than TPES due to increase of fossil fuel consumption in across the sectors. Looking at CO2/TPES which shows CO2 weight per energy consumption, it showed similar trend of CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions come from fossil fuel, then share of fossil fuel is checked. Its share has been increasing year by year and it reached to more than 45% in 2015. % Ktoe,ktCO2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016 CO2/TPES
  19. 19. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016 Comparison of TPES, CO2, GDP and Population TPES CO2 GDP Population Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation • Energy Indicators Energy consumption increased gradually not same as GDP in 2000-2016 but CO2 emissions jumped up in 2015 due to different energy mix compared to 2014. The intensities such as TEPS/GDP and CO2/GDP were improved from 2000 to 2009 but they showed almost flat after 2010. On the other hand, TPES/capita and CO2 /capita increased gradually. Looking at the elasticity defined as growth rate of TPES / growth rate of GDP, it was lower than 1 in 2000-2016. But it became bigger year by year and it almost reached to 0.6 in 2010-2016. Biomass surely contributed why the elasticity was less than 1. 2000=100 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016 Major Energy Indicators TPES/GDP (toe/thousand $) TPES/POP (toe/person) CO2/GDP(tCO2/thousand $) CO2/POP(tCO2/person) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2016 Elasticity
  20. 20. Key Findings and Policy Implications • Key Findings – Total final energy consumption increased around 3.2% P.A in last 16 years and the elasticity was 0.32 in the same time. – Myanmar largely depends on biomass and petroleum products in final consumption sector but electricity grew rapidly around 10% P.A. and it consumed across the sectors except transport sector. – By sector, industry sector marked highest share (37% in 2016), followed by residential (28%) and commercial (19%). – For looking each petroleum product, all petroleum products showed uptrend but gasoline marked significant increase (less than 4 times) from 2000 to 2016. In term of share, diesel oil reached 51% in 2016, followed by gasoline.
  21. 21. Key Findings and Policy Implications • Key Findings – Hydro and gas power generations have been major sources in Myanmar and the generated electricity has been consumed across the sectors. From 2013, Myanmar started electricity export to neighboring countries. – Share of gas power generation in 2016 was 40% and on the other hand, hydro power was 60%. – At primary energy supply level, biomass is still most dominant energy in Myanmar, followed by petroleum products and gas. – Import dependency of energy in Myanmar, however, gradually went up after 2010 and it was still around 13% in 2016. – CO2 emissions gradually increased same as TPES. In 2015, CO2 jumped up due to increase of fossil fuels.
  22. 22. Key Findings and Policy Implications • Key Findings – Energy intensity was improved from 2000 to 2009 but after 2009, it was almost flat. – Energy elasticity was lower than 1.0 from 2000 top 2016. But it increased year by year due to significant increase of electricity, petroleum products and gas in the same time.
  23. 23. Key Findings and Policy Implications • Policy Implications – Myanmar has huge potential to shift from biomass to conventional energy such as petroleum products and electricity due to its high economic growth perspective reported by regional and international economic organization such as IMF. – Myanmar has also large potential on energy demand in industry sector due to its industrialization planning. Manufacturing sector will need more electricity, petroleum products and gas. – Petroleum products will depend import continuously and it brings two issues in Myanmar; a. vulnerable oil supply, b. outflow of national wealth. – Consequently following policy implications are recommended; • Promotion of energy efficiency to across all the final sectors • Development of domestic energy such as natural gas and hydro power generation • Hydro and biomass power generation will also contribute to lower carbon emissions • Pay attention to oil supply security such as; a. stockpiling, b. emergency response and preparedness, c. formulate NESO (National Emergency Strategy Organization)
  24. 24. Conclusion • Continuation of Energy Statistics – The 1st Myanmar National Energy Statistics 2019 has released today and 2nd Myanmar Energy Statistics should be released late this year continuously by OGPD, MOEE itself. • Better data Better decision – On the other hand, quality of Myanmar National Energy Statistics especially primary energy data, will be improved through enhancing energy data collection both supply and demand sides. • Human Resources – Professional energy statisticians will be needed. Capacity building trainings on energy statistics to be conducted by international organizations and OECD countries are good opportunities for staff of OGPD, MOEE to increase their capacity on energy statistics. • Network of inter-Ministries – Collaborative network among Ministries in Myanmar is recommended to set up. The network talks and shares energy data as well as energy related data among the Ministries. The network surely contributes to produce energy efficiency indicators.
  25. 25. Thank you for your attention! 25

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