Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIMES-CZ

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Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIMES-CZ

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Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIMES-CZ

  1. 1. Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIMES-CZ 69TH SEMI-ANNUAL ETSAP MEETING Lukáš Rečka lukas.recka@czp.cuni.cz Cork, 30th May, 2016
  2. 2. Agenda • Motivation • TIMES-CZ model • Model Structure • Scenarios • Results • Sensitivity analysis • Conclusions • Planned extension of the model
  3. 3. Motivation Gross electricity production by resource and gross electricity consumption in the Czech Republic in 1993-2013 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TWh Wind Biogas Solar Hydro Biomass Oil Natural gas Nuclear Other Brown coal/lignite Hard coal Gross electricity consumption Source: Eurostat
  4. 4. Assess the impacts of possible extension of Czech brown coal mines on Czech energy system • 4 scenarios to assess the ‘breaking’ of the territorial ecological limits (TEL) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PJ Planned mining of Brown coal TEL4 TEL3 TEL2 TEL1 Source: Eurostat
  5. 5. TIMES-CZ Model of the Czech Energy System including the whole energy ballance • based on Czech region of TIMES-PanEU • Updated from 2010 to 2012 data • ETS sectors disagreated on plant level (except Iron and Steel industry) • Non-ETS sectors as in TIMES-PanEU • time horizon 2012-2050 • 5 year periods • ETS sectors: plant-level data of fuel use, emissions and electricity/heat generated • District heating partly regionalized • RES potentials based on State Energy Policy (SEP) • Reserves of brown coal according to 4 variants of territorial ecological limits • Capital costs of new technologies based on DIW (2013) • Fuel cost base on World Energy Outlook 2014
  6. 6. PES BC reserves BC Imp./Exp. Electricity Coke Districtheat Nafta Gasoline Gas Steam Households BC heating Gas heating BM heating ELC heating Gas water boiler District heating Elc. water boiler Elc. heat pump Oil reserves Oil Import HC reserves HC Imp./Exp. Gas reserves Gas Import Biomass potential PV, CSP & thermosolar potential Conversion Sector Coal processing Refinery Heat & Power generation Individual ETS sources Residual heat plants Nuclear power plants Residual autoproducers RES Electrolysis Gasisfication Liquefication Gas processing Gas Biomass HC BC Oil Wind Warmwater Roomheat Warmwater Roomheat Proces.heat LH2 Commercial Room heat boilers Process heat boilers Warm water boilers Industry Transport Road Road - freight Rail - passanger Rail - freight Wind potential TIMES-CZ Structure
  7. 7. Scenarios 1) 4 scenarios based on SEP to assess the ‘breaking’ of the territorial ecological limits (TEL) only • Main trends according to State Energy Policy (SEP) • Electricity production, RES, Nuclear, price of EU ETS - up to 40€/CO2t 2) + Relax assuption on Nuclear 3) + Relax assuption on RES • RES potentials increased according to RES Chamber Wind Biomas PV Water Geother mal Total Twh 18.3 22 12.7 2.7 9.7 66
  8. 8. 1) Results – Brown coal consumption & mining 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PJ TEL 3&4 Domestic demand TEL 2 Domestic demand TEL 1 Domestic demand TEL4 TEL3 TEL2 TEL1
  9. 9. 1) Results – Electricity production by source 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000 100 000 2015 2025 2035 2045 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2025 2035 2045 2020 2030 2040 2050 TEL 1 TEL 2 TEL 3 TEL 4 GWh Nuclear RES Gas Brown coal Hard coal Other
  10. 10. 2) Results – Electricity production by source 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000 100 000 2015 2025 2035 2045 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2025 2035 2045 2020 2030 2040 2050 TEL 1 TEL 2 TEL 3 TEL 4 GWh Nuclear RES Gas Brown coal Hard coal Other
  11. 11. 3) Results – Electricity production by source 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000 100 000 2015 2025 2035 2045 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2025 2035 2045 2020 2030 2040 2050 TEL 1 TEL 2 TEL 3 TEL 4 GWh Nuclear RES Gas Brown coal Hard coal Other
  12. 12. Sensitivity analysis • TEL 2 – the selected ‚breaking‘ of TEL • 3 fuel price assumption sets, 4 EUA price scenarios • 3 scenarios of nuclear development 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Hardcoal Naturalgas Oil Browncoal-Czech Browncoal-import Hardcoal Naturalgas Oil Browncoal-Czech Browncoal-import Hardcoal Naturalgas Oil Browncoal-Czech Browncoal-import WEO-450 Weighted WEO-Cur-pol. €/GJ Fuel price assumptions €/GJ 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 €/tCO2 EUA price scenarios SEP WEO-Cur-pol. WEO-450 Low
  13. 13. Sensitivity analysis – share of electricity a) Nuclear, Brown coal, Water, Wind and PV Nuclear as SEP Nuclar - phase out Dukovany 2027 Nuclear - no new PP 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Lignite SEP Water Wind Lignite WEO-450 Lignite WEO-Cur.Policy Lignite Cur.Policy-low Lignite EUA-low Lignite Cur.Pol-NoNew PV Lignite Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU Lignite SEP-NoNew Lignite SEP-NoNew+DU
  14. 14. Sensitivity analysis – share of electricity b) Nuclear as in SEP – Hard coal, Nature gas and Biomas 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Hardcoal SEP Natral gas SEP Bimass & Biogas SEP Hardcoal WEO-450 Natral gas WEO-450 Bimass & Biogas WEO-450 Hardcoal WEO-Cur.Policy Natral gas WEO-Cur.Policy Bimass & Biogas WEO-Cur.Policy Hardcoal Cur.Policy-low Natral gas Cur.Policy-low Bimass & Biogas Cur.Policy-low Hardcoal EUA-low Natral gas EUA-low Bimass & Biogas EUA-low
  15. 15. Sensitivity analysis – share of electricity c) No new Nuclear – Hard coal, Nature gas and Biomas 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Hardcoal Cur.Pol-NoNew Natral gas Cur.Pol-NoNew Bimass & Biogas Cur.Pol-NoNew Hardcoal Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU Natral gas Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU Bimass & Biogas Cur.Pol-NoNew+DU Hardcoal SEP-NoNew Natral gas SEP-NoNew Bimass & Biogas SEP-NoNew Hardcoal SEP-NoNew+DU Natral gas SEP-NoNew+DU Bimass & Biogas SEP-NoNew+DU
  16. 16. Conclusions • ‘breaking’ of the territorial ecological limits does not have significant affect of Czech energy system • If SEP assuptions are fullfilled • If higher installlation of RES is allowed - according to Czech RES chamber assuption • Approximately 3 mil. t of brown coal would need to be imported in case of not ‘breaking’ of the territorial ecological limits • RES are at least competetive with nuclear sources at EUA price at 40€ • Sensitivity analysis shows fuel switch btw Hard coal and Natural gas
  17. 17. Planned extension of the model  Disaggregate Steel and Iron industry on EU ETS plant level  Elasticity of demand  Load curve with higher time resolution - up to hourly profiles  Electricity storage  Better regionalization of heat supply and demand

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