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ETSAP-TIAM update and re-calibration

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ETSAP-TIAM update and re-calibration

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ETSAP-TIAM update and re-calibration

  1. 1. ETSAP-TIAM Update and Re-calibration Workshop Madrid, November 2016 ETSAP-TIAM Regions AFR Africa AUS Australia & NZ CAN Canada CHI China CSA Central and South America EEU Eastern Europe FSU Former Soviet Union IND India JPN Japan MEA Middle East MEX Mexico ODA Other Developing Asia SKO South Korea USA United States WEU Western Europe
  2. 2. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 20162 Climate Module Atm. Conc. ΔForcing ΔTemp Used for reporting & setting targets Biomass Potential Renewable Potential Nuclear Fossil Fuel Reserves (oil, coal, gas) Extraction Upstream Fuels Trade Secondary Transformation OPEC/ NON-OPEC regrouping Electricity Fuels Electricity Cogeneration Heat Hydrogen production and distribution End Use Fuels Industrial Service Composition Auto Production Cogeneration Carbon capture CH4 options Carbon sequestration Terrestrial sequestration Landfills Manure Bio burning, rice, enteric ferm Wastewater CH4 options N2O options CH4 options OI**** GA**** CO**** Trade ELC*** WIN SOL GEO TDL BIO*** NUC HYD BIO*** HETHET ELC ELC SYNH2 BIO*** CO2 ELC GAS*** COA*** Industrial Tech. Commercial Tech. Transport Tech. Residential Tech. Agriculture Tech. I*** I** (6) T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1) INDELC INDELC IS** Demands IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES*** Non-energy sectors (CH4) OIL*** Building on top of the ETSAP-TIAM Git version control project, - the natural continuation will be model update and re-calibration The update is needed if we want the shared ETSAP- TIAM model to be used for future policy analysis
  3. 3. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 2016 Version controlled ETSAP-TIAM 3 Climate Module Atm. Conc. ΔForcing ΔTemp Used for reporting & setting targets Biomass Potential Renewable Potential Nuclear Fossil Fuel Reserves (oil, coal, gas) Extraction Upstream Fuels Trade Secondary Transformation OPEC/ NON-OPEC regrouping Electricity Fuels Electricity Cogeneration Heat Hydrogen production and distribution End Use Fuels Industrial Service Composition Auto Production Cogeneration Carbon capture CH4 options Carbon sequestration Terrestrial sequestration Landfills Manure Bio burning, rice, enteric ferm Wastewater CH4 options N2O options CH4 options OI**** GA**** CO**** Trade ELC*** WIN SOL GEO TDL BIO*** NUC HYD BIO*** HETHET ELC ELC SYNH2 BIO*** CO2 ELC GAS*** COA*** Industrial Tech. Commercial Tech. Transport Tech. Residential Tech. Agriculture Tech. I*** I** (6) T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1) INDELC INDELC IS** Demands IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES*** Non-energy sectors (CH4) OIL*** Climate Module Atm. Conc. ΔForcing ΔTemp Used for reporting & setting targets Biomass Potential Renewable Potential Nuclear Fossil Fuel Reserves (oil, coal, gas) Extraction Upstream Fuels Trade Secondary Transformation OPEC/ NON-OPEC regrouping Electricity Fuels Electricity Cogeneration Heat Hydrogen production and distribution End Use Fuels Industrial Service Composition Auto Production Cogeneration Carbon capture CH4 options Carbon sequestration Terrestrial sequestration Landfills Manure Bio burning, rice, enteric ferm Wastewater CH4 options N2O options CH4 options OI**** GA**** CO**** Trade ELC*** WIN SOL GEO TDL BIO*** NUC HYD BIO*** HETHET ELC ELC SYNH2 BIO*** CO2 ELC GAS*** COA*** Industrial Tech. Commercial Tech. Transport Tech. Residential Tech. Agriculture Tech. I*** I** (6) T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1) INDELC INDELC IS** Demands IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES*** Non-energy sectors (CH4) OIL*** Climate Module Atm. Conc. ΔForcing ΔTemp Used for reporting & setting targets Biomass Potential Renewable Potential Nuclear Fossil Fuel Reserves (oil, coal, gas) Extraction Upstream Fuels Trade Secondary Transformation OPEC/ NON-OPEC regrouping Electricity Fuels Electricity Cogeneration Heat Hydrogen production and distribution End Use Fuels Industrial Service Composition Auto Production Cogeneration Carbon capture CH4 options Carbon sequestration Terrestrial sequestration Landfills Manure Bio burning, rice, enteric ferm Wastewater CH4 options N2O options CH4 options OI**** GA**** CO**** Trade ELC*** WIN SOL GEO TDL BIO*** NUC HYD BIO*** HETHET ELC ELC SYNH2 BIO*** CO2 ELC GAS*** COA*** Industrial Tech. Commercial Tech. Transport Tech. Residential Tech. Agriculture Tech. I*** I** (6) T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1) INDELC INDELC IS** Demands IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES*** Non-energy sectors (CH4) OIL*** Climate Module Atm. Conc. ΔForcing ΔTemp Used for reporting & setting targets Biomass Potential Renewable Potential Nuclear Fossil Fuel Reserves (oil, coal, gas) Extraction Upstream Fuels Trade Secondary Transformation OPEC/ NON-OPEC regrouping Electricity Fuels Electricity Cogeneration Heat Hydrogen production and distribution End Use Fuels Industrial Service Composition Auto Production Cogeneration Carbon capture CH4 options Carbon sequestration Terrestrial sequestration Landfills Manure Bio burning, rice, enteric ferm Wastewater CH4 options N2O options CH4 options OI**** GA**** CO**** Trade ELC*** WIN SOL GEO TDL BIO*** NUC HYD BIO*** HETHET ELC ELC SYNH2 BIO*** CO2 ELC GAS*** COA*** Industrial Tech. Commercial Tech. Transport Tech. Residential Tech. Agriculture Tech. I*** I** (6) T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1) INDELC INDELC IS** Demands IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES*** Non-energy sectors (CH4) OIL*** Climate Module Atm. Conc. ΔForcing ΔTemp Used for reporting & setting targets Biomass Potential Renewable Potential Nuclear Fossil Fuel Reserves (oil, coal, gas) Extraction Upstream Fuels Trade Secondary Transformation OPEC/ NON-OPEC regrouping Electricity Fuels Electricity Cogeneration Heat Hydrogen production and distribution End Use Fuels Industrial Service Composition Auto Production Cogeneration Carbon capture CH4 options Carbon sequestration Terrestrial sequestration Landfills Manure Bio burning, rice, enteric ferm Wastewater CH4 options N2O options CH4 options OI**** GA**** CO**** Trade ELC*** WIN SOL GEO TDL BIO*** NUC HYD BIO*** HETHET ELC ELC SYNH2 BIO*** CO2 ELC GAS*** COA*** Industrial Tech. Commercial Tech. Transport Tech. Residential Tech. Agriculture Tech. I*** I** (6) T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1) INDELC INDELC IS** Demands IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES*** Non-energy sectors (CH4) OIL*** Climate Module Atm. Conc. ΔForcing ΔTemp Used for reporting & setting targets Biomass Potential Renewable Potential Nuclear Fossil Fuel Reserves (oil, coal, gas) Extraction Upstream Fuels Trade Secondary Transformation OPEC/ NON-OPEC regrouping Electricity Fuels Electricity Cogeneration Heat Hydrogen production and distribution End Use Fuels Industrial Service Composition Auto Production Cogeneration Carbon capture CH4 options Carbon sequestration Terrestrial sequestration Landfills Manure Bio burning, rice, enteric ferm Wastewater CH4 options N2O options CH4 options OI**** GA**** CO**** Trade ELC*** WIN SOL GEO TDL BIO*** NUC HYD BIO*** HETHET ELC ELC SYNH2 BIO*** CO2 ELC GAS*** COA*** Industrial Tech. Commercial Tech. Transport Tech. Residential Tech. Agriculture Tech. I*** I** (6) T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1) INDELC INDELC IS** Demands IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES*** Non-energy sectors (CH4) OIL*** Version X Version ETSAP-TIAM Master Review process …….……. Modelling groups Version ETSAP-TIAM Developer Improvements ….
  4. 4. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 2016 What will you push in the running Git project? 4 Team "Push" Timeline UCC Macro drivers End December 2016 ICL RE cost reduction scenarios January 2017 CMA Bio energy potential scenarios January 2017 ……..
  5. 5. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 2016 Deliverables 1.Workshops involving ETSAP-TIAM users for determining needed areas to update in the model and e.g., the number of regions wanted in the model 2.Report with analysis of needed changes in the model 3.Updated data, energy balances, technology SubRES, macroeconomic outlook and trade matrixes 4.Re-calibration and set up of a VEDA-BE database for results analysis, and documentation of ETSAP-TIAM. This includes also minimum two standard scenarios: Reference and a Policy scenario 5
  6. 6. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 2016 Relevance to Annex XIV topics "Understanding and Facilitating the energy transition to achieve the well below 2OC goal" • This calls for an updated and improved global model - A cooperative approach will speed up the process many times "Improved modelling of interactions between energy system and economy" • "Linking" ETSAP-TIAM with CGE models, environmental models, regional models etc. will need serious improvements of ETSAP-TIAM to make sense 6
  7. 7. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 2016 Budget - 100k€ Period: 2 years 7 Task Task Description Cost (k€) 1. Version control Continue and further develop version control of the model 3.0 2. Updating data (10k€ for buying data)* Energy balances, potentials, reserve values, prices, demand projections) 24.2 3. Workshop/travel support Preparation and organization of workshops coordinating the needed updates to ETSAP-TIAM, (structure/regions, etc.) plus possible support to travel costs) 22.5 4. Re-calibration and scenario setup Update template structure, new calibration year, update trade matrix, scenario constraints 41.3 5. Documentation Documentation directly in model files and a getting started manual 9.0
  8. 8. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 2016 Split of budget in two phases of one year Part 1 will then consist of the 3 first tasks preparing for the re- calibration, but also include a first version of the reference and policy scenario. Part 2 will mainly be the re-calibration, documentation and final scenario development. Project split: Part 1: 1 year, 45.8k€ Part 2: 1 year, 54.2k€ 8
  9. 9. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 15 November 2016 Why will it work? • It has to work - the world need analysis of deep cut scenarios • Together we are much stronger and the development process can be speeded up many times - working directly and dynamically together will make the difference • Linking ETSAP-TIAM with other models, e.g. GTAP will require an improved model • ETSAP sponsors are interested in an improved and updated ETSAP-TIAM 9

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