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Wadid Erian 25 Aug  5 00 _ Syria-Drought Risk & Resilience_ IDRC14
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Wadid Erian 25 Aug 5 00 _ Syria-Drought Risk & Resilience_ IDRC14

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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  • 1. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org DROUGHT RISK ASSESSMENT IN SYRIA AND RESILIENCE BASED RESPONSES Prof. Wadid ERIAN The League of Arab States LAS Lead Author in IPCC - SREX , WGII Member in UNISDR GAR Advisory Board Advisor World Bank 2012
  • 2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org during the growing season affects yield - SOIL MOISTURE DROUGHT, or AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT, Storage changes in soil moisture and groundwater are also affected by increases in actual evapotranspiration in addition to reductions in precipitation. Precipitation deficit is defined as a METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT. A MEGADROUGHT is drought, lasting much longer than normal, usually a decade or more. Drought is a relative term shortage of precipitation related to particular activity A period of abnormally dry weather long enough to cause a serious hydrological imbalance. during the runoff season affects water supplies – HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT.
  • 3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Syria is part of the historical region of Fertile Crescent area that is part of history of drought. If we looked to the history of the region we could recognize that in about 2200 BC, a temporary climate shift created 300 years of reduced rainfall and colder temperatures, which forced people to abandon their rainfed fields in what is now northeast Syria. As people migrated to the south or turned to pastoralism to survive, whole cities were deserted and covered in the dust of drought (Weiss and Bradley 2001)
  • 4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org reduction of rainfall in mid 21st century. around 40-50 mm in the upper Euphrates and Tigris basin about 7% of average rainfall, it is expected to have about 11% drop in Euphrates river discharge (Evans, 2008) . studies (Lehner et al, 2001 and EEA, 2004) expected around 10 to 25% reduction in river runoff in the upper Euphrates and Tigris basin in 2070 (Other Studies: Giorgi, 2006; Beniston et al, 2007; Mariotti et al., 2008; Planton et al., 2008). “ there is medium confidence that droughts in Mediterranean will intensify in the 21st century, the 20th century simulations indicate that the ‘transition’ toward drier conditions has already started to occur and has accelerated around the turn of the century towards the larger rates projected for the 21st century” IPCC 2012.
  • 5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sketch for General Consequences of Increased Drought Erian W, B Katlan, N Assad and. S Ibrahim 2014. “Effects of Drought and Land Degradation on Crop Losses in Africa and Arab Region with Special Case Study on: drought and conflict in syria”, Background paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR
  • 6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Erian W, B Katlan, A. Khalil, Y Hanfi N Assad and. S Ibrahim 2014. “Studying the long term metrological drought in Africa, Mediterranean and Middle East Regions, using SPEI”, Background paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR
  • 7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org The Monthly ADI of the Agriculture Season 07/08
  • 8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Syria for the period 2000 - 2010
  • 9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Area in Ha % Levels of ADH 4730626 25.55 No Hazard 9474576 51.17 Slight ADH 3947120 21.31 Moderately ADH 278492.2 1. 51 Severely ADH
  • 10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org The Major Impacts of Drought in Syria The eastern part of Syria represent 31.75% of the total rainfed areas of Syria and due to drought has been declined from 1.12 to 0.98 million hectare wheat production has dropped in the eastern part of Syria by 26% during the years 2000-2009 (production from that region contributes by 58% of the total production ) During the agriculture season 2007–2008 and due to severe drought in the Syria, 75% of the country’s farmers suffered total crop failure, where, wheat production dropped by 39.8% from 0.43 to 0.25 million ton. Barley production which used as fodder for animals has decreased in the last years 2005-2009 up to 40%, beside the absence of natural pastures. Farmer soled their animals, animals weight loss in beside physical deterioration; lower in the amount of newly born young because of Low fertility rate, declining birth rate. The estimated number of sheep population has dropped from 2.47 million head at the year 2005 to 1.5 million head at the year 2009 and the livestock population was 50 percent below the pre-drought level a). Agricultural Production (Erian et al, 2011; Kattana, 2011 and FAO, 2011).
  • 11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org b). Rural Livelihoods (Erian et al, 2011; Kattana, 2011; UNISDR, 2011 and FAO, 2011). farmers who depend on only one crop are in trouble - they have nothing else to help them and they have to move to earn their living in other governorates or countries even women. Only older people and children remained Increased respiratory infections, particularly because of the atmosphere nebular (dusty), due to lack of water (for drinking and domestic use) or provided by a non- secure health, leading to a variety of digestive diseases tract and diarrhea (especially in children), and kidney disease.
  • 12. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org c). Migration: (Nashawatii, 2011 and Erian et al , 2010) During the years 2007 to 2011, Some 1.3 million people (206000 households) of a population of 22 million have been severely affected by the disaster, of which 800,000 have lost almost all of their livelihoods and face extreme hardship. Migration out of the affected areas has increased, Estimates indicating that between 40,000 to 60,000 families, from “Hassakeh governorate” alone. Most of the houses on villages are left empty and less than 10% are occupied by elder people and children, The younger generations left seeking work, many left to Lebanon or Jordon, as workers in the sectors of construction or agriculture. Women left to work in the western part of Syria, for packing vegetables in “Tartous” greenhouses;
  • 13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org d). Ecosystem Decline: (FAO, 2011 and Mora, 2011 ACSAD, 2009).  Due to drought that increased in frequency, intensity and duration, the deficit in available water has been estimated of about 651 million M3 during the years 1995- 2005, and still increasing with expectation to rise to 2077 million M3 by the year in 2030 only because of population growth and the increasing pace of development Source: World Bank 2012.  Decline in availability of irrigation water in the Hassakeh governorate is largely due to the hydrological drought of Khabour River, this has led to the decline in irrigated areas, the water scarcity has led to increasing pressures on ground water resources and brought the water crisis to critical levels  Increase of moderate and severe land degradation that estimated during the period from 1999 to 2007 by 34.8% of the total area of Syria
  • 14. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Governorates Unit Severe (1) Moderate (2) Slight (3) Non Total (1+2) Total (1+2+3) RAQA Ha 94491 766517 717585 220406 861008 1578593 % 5.3 42.6 39.9 12.3 47.9 87.8 HASAKA Ha 51752 848309 1E+06 37021 900061 2280058 % 2.2 36.7 59.6 1.5 38.9 98.5 DIER EZZOR Ha 30072 736913 970980 820366 766985 1737965 % 1.2 28.8 38 32.1 30 68 DAMASCUS Ha 56949 333143 723593 695086 390092 1113685 % 3.1 18.4 40 38.4 21.6 61.5 DARAA Ha 14114 60589 191560 97720 74703 266262.9 % 3.9 16.7 52.6 26.8 20.6 73.2 ALLEPO Ha 281792 281792 1E+06 361374 343929 1862862 % 3.1 14.1 64.8 18 17.2 82 HOMS Ha 43778 773917 3E+06 2E+06 817695 3535376 % 1 15.4 54 30 16.4 70.4 SWEIDAA Ha 2483.9 83118 346187 237105 85602 431788.5 % 0 12 52 35 12 64 HAMA Ha 8697.9 84846 649793 281391 93544 743337.3 % 1 8.3 63.4 27.5 9.3 72.7 LATTAKIA Ha 4349.7 16681 114741 119459 21031 135771.5 % 1.7 6.6 45 46.8 8.3 53.3 TARTUS Ha 3589 5717 110650 72498 9305.7 119955.5 % 1.9 3 57.5 37.7 4.9 62.4 IDLEB Ha 156.3 10509 306470 216291 10666 317135.2 % 0 2 57.5 40.5 2 59.5 QANETRA Ha 40 615 35900 99054 655 36555 % 0 0 27 73 0 27 Levels of Agricultural Drought Hazard in Syria Different Governorate
  • 15. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  • 16. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  • 17. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Evaluation Element Main Economical Capacity Characteristi3 Code EcA EcB EcC EcD EcE EcF EcG EcH EcI EcJ Value 107600 -2 5,100 16.9 17 12.3 12 4800 808 32.9 Class 3 7 5 3 3 3 3 2 4 2 Evaluation Element Main Population Capacity Characteristi3 Code PoA PoB PoC PoD PoE PoF Value 121.67 61 -0.79 -27.82 61.6 -0.8 Class 3 1 1 1 7 5 Evaluation Element Main Land use Capacity Characteristi3 Code LuA LuB LuC LhD LuE LuF Value 25.4 -0.64 5.39 23.75 2.61 11.63 Class 1 5 6 3 6 3 Evaluation Element Main Water Availability Capacity Characteristi3 Code WaA WaB WaC WaD Value 46.1 19.95 95 1,048 Class 6 5 7 2 ECONOMICAL INDICATOR (Ec) EcA : GDP in Million US$. EcB : GDP Growth rate NGI US$. EcC : Agriculture Share In GDP %. EcD : Labor Force% in Agriculture EcE : Unemployment Rate:%. EcF. : Below Poverty Line % EcG : Agriculture, value added per agricultural worker (USD) 2009- 1999 EcH. : Evaluation of the Value of Total Agriculture Production and Food Production EcI : Value (millions of 2004-2006 in ($). EcJ : Change in crop production value per ha % ii. POPULATION (Po) PoA : Mean Population Density person/Km2 PoB : People in working age (15-64) years % PoC. : Population growth rate PoD. : Net migration rate: for each 1000 person PoE. : Females % of Labour force in Agriculture- 2011. PoF. : Average Agriculture population Change 2011 - 2001% iii. LAND USE (Lu) LuA. : Arable Area % from Total LuB : Change in Arable Areas 1999 - 2009 LuC : Permanent Crops Area % from Total LuD : Change in Permanent Crops Areas 1999 - 2009 LuE : Forest Area % from Total LuF. : Change in Forest Areas 1999 - 2009 iv. WATER AVAILABILITY WaA Total Renewable Water Resources cu km WaB Fresh water Withdrawal Total Cu km/y WaC Fresh water Withdrawal agricultural % WaD Fresh water Withdrawal per Capita Cu km/y
  • 18. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org According to the information at 2011, (Erian et al 2012), Syria rated as : Moderate Capacity level with main limitation in water availability, Moderate vulnerability to drought with high coverage of ADH (75 – 85%), Moderate drought hazard severity, moderately affected vegetation cover and moderate capacity. As the conflict started we could re-classify Syria to: Extreme Vulnerability, to drought with high coverage of ADH moderate drought hazard severity, severely affected vegetation cover and very Low to low capacity. That will require special program for land recovery and building resilience to coupe with drought and land degradation hazards severity, The study of the drought in Syria and surrounding countries should get priority as the crises could explode; in fact Lebanon is in marginal level of instability and Iraq already suffering from the impacts of Syria Crises that started while the country still approximately divided.
  • 19. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org BUILDING RESILIANCE Even drought causing further degradation of the region’s natural resources base is likely, unlikely the size of risks associated with drought remain less well understood, losses and impacts are not systematically captured; (UNISDR 2011). If Syria government admitted earlier that they are facing a problem, and took steps toward supporting farmers and subsidizing them, and established Monitoring and early Warning System for better understanding of the problem. The consequences was discussed early by “Wadid Erian” inside Syria with major groups like all ministries and organizations, and “Erian” show the results of Drought from ACSAD monitoring system and explained in public meetings but very minor actions was taken. When at 2010 he said that Syria instability increasing not much effort was taken, and March 2011 the Conflicts started. In Fact and Similar to “Al Khabour River” while he was dying but minor action was taken until Syria lost it 1983
  • 20. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Framework for understanding Drought: Water, Food, and Socio-economy Nexus, after Erian 2014, Erian W, B Katlan, N Assad and. S Ibrahim 2014. “Effects of Drought and Land Degradation on Crop Losses in Africa and Arab Region with Special Case Study on: drought and conflict in syria”, Background paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR
  • 21. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org •From My perspective the main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction is integrated. •Its about people specially poor people in fragile ecosystem communities (e.g. Drylands which represent 41% of the globe and 2 billion people), they require better attention, few people are talking about “Oasis “ they are under threat of nature hazards.
  • 22. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org •Prevention, Recovery and Building Resilience Require using our resources better in Research, Education & Training, Implementation & Practice and Policy. We are sharing this Universe …and NO ONE IS SAFE if the others are SUFFERING……… •Remember that what so called “Arab Spring “ was only a start of more violence , killing,…. and not yet controlled….. Drought, Land degradation Poverty, Unemployment …….. lack of nature resources , population increasing played major role. LEBANON and JORDAN require Support they are facing major Drought problems and limited resources and they having more drivers and pressures toward instability , and the conflict in Syria must find o solution.
  • 23. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Thank you wadiderian@gmail.com wadiderian@yahoo.com