Ecosystem Threshold Concept of Precaution towards One Health

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GRF One Health Summit 2012, Davos: Presentation by Günter KLEIN, Bonn-Rhine-Sieg University, Germany, Federal Republic of

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Ecosystem Threshold Concept of Precaution towards One Health

  1. 1. Ecosystem Threshold Concept ofPrecaution towards One HealthProf. Dr. Günter KleinInternational Center for Sustainable DevelopmentUniversity of Applied Sciences Bonn-Rhein-Siegguenter.klein@brsu.deGrantham-Allee 20D 53757 Sankt Augustin
  2. 2. Titration
  3. 3. Hysterese
  4. 4. Margaret Catley-Carlson, Bonn, June 2010
  5. 5. Four Mechanisms for the Science-Policy-Process towards Environments supportive to Health1. Develop Consensus in the political arena• Constructive processes and institutions at national, regional and global level,2. Foster Collaboration Knowledge - based• Intersectoral fields of work and case studies• Environment and Lifestyle, socio-environmental determinants of health, preventive action3. Focus Resources effectively• Aspects of EH-Economy, internalization of externalities, sustainable investment and human resources4. Communicate honestly• Cultural aspects – towards future living in healthy environments
  6. 6. Understanding – Human – Technical – Scientific – Ecologic - Systems ……and how we tend to describe their interaction:
  7. 7. Phytoplankton response to restoration– annual means of Chl.a and TP before and after restoration Excluded from regressionVollenweider and Kerekes (1982) regression includingthe data for Schlachtensee (red) and Lake Tegel (blue)
  8. 8. Phytoplankton response to restoration– annual means of Chl.a and TP before and after restoration 100 1980 1980 1984 1984 2006 30 20 06 Chl (1 m) in mg/m³ 2006 10 2006 3 Schlachtensee (80 – 06) Lake Tegel (84 -06) 1 30 10 30 100 300 1000 Pл (1 m) in mg/m³Vollenweider and Kerekes (1982) regression including Annual means for each Berlin lake,the data for Schlachtensee (red) and Lake Tegel (blue) connected chronologically
  9. 9. What to control?? And Why? Biovolume of Toxic Cyanobacteria in Relation to Concentrations of Total Phosphorus Lake Tegel 87-04 Schlachtensee 81-02 60Cyanobacterial biovolume [mm³/L] 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 100 1000 Total phosphorus [µg/L]
  10. 10. Threshold level towards oligotrophyBiomass 1980 1985 1990 Threshold level Phosphate towards eutrophy concentration
  11. 11. System Response System Load 28.01.2010
  12. 12. Eutrophication North Sea 1962 -1984 (Data Helgoland Reede, bearbeitet: Klein, Pawlitzky 1988)µg/l BM4 81 40 80 83 82 30 20 73 84 74 65 72 10 63 62 64 71 66 70 10 20 30 µg/l P04 28.01.2010
  13. 13. Eutrophication impounded Ruhr River (Germany) 28.01.2010
  14. 14. Kurvenzug der Wertepaare von Chlorophyll-a- und P-Fracht über die Zeit von 1965 bis 1986 an der Ruhr
  15. 15. Vereinigung von 5-Jahreskollektiven der Wertepaare zu Wertefeldern und Verlauf des rechnerischen Schwerpunktes der Felder in der Zeit von 1965 bis 1986 1965 – 1970 1971 – 1975 1976 – 1980 1981 – 1986
  16. 16. Vereinigung von 5-Jahreskollektiven der Wertepaare zu Wertefeldern und Verlauf des rechnerischen Schwerpunktes der Felder in der Zeit von 1965 bis 1986 1965 – 1970 1971 – 1975 1976 – 1980 1981 – 1986
  17. 17. Vereinigung von 5-Jahreskollektiven der Wertepaare zu Wertefeldern und Verlauf des rechnerischen Schwerpunktes der Felder in der Zeit von 1965 bis 1986 1965 – 1970 1971 – 1975 1976 – 1980 1981 – 1986
  18. 18. General Applicability – observed or tested?
  19. 19. Protecion of drinking water catchment• Zone I Well or source protection: Closed, locked. Zone II Inner Protection Area: e.g. 50 days residence for ground water Zone III Wider Protection Area: specific restrictions
  20. 20. Biosphere Reserve ZonesBiosphere reserves are organized into 3interrelated zones:• the core area• the buffer zone• the transition area
  21. 21. the buffer zone Lake Wonderful Core areaWell Miracle Forest
  22. 22. Some Words about Time Scale and Focus….
  23. 23. Initiativbüro Wasserstrategie Water consumption in paper manufacturing industry down to 20% ! Wertschöpfung Wasser2011
  24. 24. System response Restoration A F C 2004 Automobile Fuel Consumtion 1974 System Load Invest. 100 %Cost Effectiveness „Value Added“ positive negative 0
  25. 25. Verantwortlich für den weltweiten jährlichen CO2 Ausstoß sind: Internationale Schifffahrt 25 % Internationale Schienen-verkehr Luftfahrt 2.7% Binnen-schifffahrt 0,5% 1.9% / Fischerei 0,6% Transport (Straße) 21.3% Strom- und Wärme-erzeugung Industrie und Bau 35,0% 18.2% Andere Stromerzeugung Sonstiges 4.5% 15.3% © 2010 Voigt & CollegenQuelle: 2. IMO GHG Studie 2009
  26. 26. Percentage of urban population in Europe* exposedto air quality NOT in compliance with EU standards
  27. 27. Theoretical exploration or practical experience?
  28. 28. Theoretical exploration or practical experience? Or in other words: We dont know! Margaret Catley-Carlson, Bonn, June Wertschöpfung Wasser2011 2010
  29. 29. Real Impact of deviation of two rivers from the Aral Sea towards cotton fields….1970 - 1980before Or in other words: We know! after Wertschöpfung Wasser2011
  30. 30. Threshold level towards oligotrophyBiomass 1980 1985 1990 Threshold level Phosphate towards eutrophy concentration
  31. 31. Cyanobacteria and Health Delivery Lake Tegel 87-04 Schlachtensee 81-02 60Cyanobacterial biovolume [mm³/L] 50 We know. We dont know! We know!! 40 30 Health and Ugly and Unhealthy Nature 20 Well - Being Disease and Suffering 10 0 10 100 1000 Total phosphorus [µg/L]
  32. 32. System response Restoration Destabilisation System Load Invest. 100 %Cost Effectiveness „Value Added“ positive negative 0
  33. 33. What to do and how to go towards One Health:Observe and learn:• Nature‘s Memory cannot be cheated• Healthy Environments can provide Health and Well Being• Brain and hands can deliver orientation and true progress within short time scale• This is not a 21. - Century Task, but the Task to… …Start Now and Deliver!
  34. 34. Thank You forYour attention!!

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