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So you think that you understand risk? presentation.ppt
- 1. Paul Foy Presents So You Think You Understand Risk? Value Performance Ltd 3 Wilson Road Tel: 01330 538391 Mob: 07900 916182 Fax: 03300882555 Email: paulfoy@valueperformance.co.uk Web: www.valueperformance.co.uk
- 7. Cost
- 10. Cost Duration
- 11. Discrete Risk
- 12. Discrete Risk
- 28. History of the Phrase Black Swan
- 29. History of the Phrase Black Swan
- 30. History of the Phrase Black Swan
- 31. History of the Phrase Black Swan
- 32. History of the Phrase Black Swan
- 33. History of the Phrase Black Swan
- 36. 1. Impossible to predict
- 37. 1. Impossible to predict 2. Event has a Major Effect
- 38. 1. Impossible to predict 2. Event has a Major Effect 3. Seems Obvious in Hindsight
- 41. Examples of Black Swans
- 42. Examples of Black Swans Sept 11, 2001 Attacks
- 43. Examples of Black Swans Sept 11, 2001 Attacks Wall Street Crash of 1929
- 44. Examples of Black Swans Sept 11, 2001 Attacks Wall Street Crash of 1929 Coming of the Internet
- 45. Other examples of Black Swans
- 46. Chernobyl
- 50. Question Should Projects include allowances for Black Swans?
- 54. Can we see into the Future?
- 63. ‘Out of 100 situations with similar weather, it should rain on 20 of those, and not rain on 80’ ‘In a nutshell, it means that, whilst you may get some rain, it's much more likely (but not certain) to stay dry’ BBC Website
- 66. Gerd Gigerenser
- 73. ‘Lucky people generate their own good fortune via four basic principles. • They are skilled at creating and noticing chance opportunities, • They make lucky decisions by listening to their intuition, • They create self-fulfilling prophesies via positive expectations • They adopt a resilient attitude that transforms bad luck into good’ Richard Wiseman Professor of the Public Understanding of Psychology at the University of Hertfordshire
- 74. Richard Wiseman Professor of the Public Understanding of Psychology at the University of Hertfordshire
- 75. • Follow a formal Risk Management Procedure
- 76. • Follow a formal Risk Management Procedure • Understand your current levels of uncertainty
- 77. • Follow a formal Risk Management Procedure • Understand your current levels of uncertainty • Be robust and flexible
- 78. • Create a Lucky environment
- 79. • Create a Lucky environment • Use your group expertise
- 80. • Create a Lucky environment • Use your group expertise • Get real w.r.t. Statistics
- 81. • Create a Lucky environment • Use your group expertise • Get real w.r.t. Statistics • Use your intuition intelligently
- 82. Understand the world you are operating in as well as you can
- 83. “Not taking risks one doesn't understand is often the best form of risk management.” ― Raghuram G. Rajan, Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy