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Paul Foy
Presents
So You Think You Understand
Risk?
Value Performance Ltd
3 Wilson Road
Tel: 01330 538391 Mob: 07900 916182
Fax: 03300882555 Email:
paulfoy@valueperformance.co.uk
Web: www.valueperformance.co.uk
Cost
Cost
Duration
Cost
Duration
Cost
Duration
Discrete Risk
Discrete Risk
Known
Unknown
Known Unknown
Known
Unknown
Known Unknown
Known
Unknown
Known Unknown
Known
Unknown
Known Unknown
Known
Unknown
Known Unknown
Known
Unknown
Known Unknown
Known
Unknown
Known Unknown
Known
Unknown
Known Unknown
History of the Phrase Black Swan
History of the Phrase Black Swan
History of the Phrase Black Swan
History of the Phrase Black Swan
History of the Phrase Black Swan
History of the Phrase Black Swan
1. Impossible to predict
1. Impossible to predict
2. Event has a Major Effect
1. Impossible to predict
2. Event has a Major Effect
3. Seems Obvious in Hindsight
What
the…..?
Problem of Induction
Examples of Black Swans
Examples of Black Swans
Sept 11, 2001 Attacks
Examples of Black Swans
Sept 11, 2001 Attacks
Wall Street Crash of 1929
Examples of Black Swans
Sept 11, 2001 Attacks
Wall Street Crash of 1929
Coming of the Internet
Other examples of Black Swans
Chernobyl
Chernobyl
The Titanic
Chernobyl
The Titanic
Ash
Cloud
Chernobyl
The Titanic
Ash
Cloud
The Printing Press
Question
Should Projects include
allowances for Black
Swans?
Be robust and
flexible
Future Black Swans?
Future Black Swans?
Can we see into the Future?
‘Out of 100 situations with similar
weather, it should rain on 20 of those,
and not rain on 80’
‘In a nutshell, it means that, whilst you
may get some rain, it's much more
likely (but not certain) to stay dry’
BBC Website
Vs
Gerd Gigerenser
Gerd Gigerenser
Vs
Gerd Gigerenser
‘Lucky people generate their own good
fortune via four basic principles.
• They are skilled at creating and
noticing chance opportunities,
• They make lucky decisions by
listening to their intuition,
• They create self-fulfilling prophesies
via positive expectations
• They adopt a resilient attitude that
transforms bad luck into good’
Richard Wiseman
Professor of the Public Understanding of Psychology
at the University of Hertfordshire
Richard Wiseman
Professor of the Public Understanding of Psychology
at the University of Hertfordshire
• Follow a formal Risk Management
Procedure
• Follow a formal Risk Management
Procedure
• Understand your current levels of
uncertainty
• Follow a formal Risk Management
Procedure
• Understand your current levels of
uncertainty
• Be robust and flexible
• Create a Lucky environment
• Create a Lucky environment
• Use your group expertise
• Create a Lucky environment
• Use your group expertise
• Get real w.r.t. Statistics
• Create a Lucky environment
• Use your group expertise
• Get real w.r.t. Statistics
• Use your intuition intelligently
Understand the world you are
operating in as well as you can
“Not taking risks one doesn't
understand is often the best
form of risk management.”
― Raghuram G. Rajan, Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still
Threaten the World Economy

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So you think that you understand risk? presentation.ppt