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Probabilistic Thinking in SEO - BrightonSEO October 2022
- 1. The power of probabilistic thinking in SEO @bertiecharlton Andrew Charlton Managing Director of Crawl
- 2. SEOs are no better than a coin toss at predicting SEO performance. @bertiecharlton
- 3. SEOs are also no better at predicting which of two pages should rank for a keyword. @bertiecharlton PAGE 1? PAGE 2? https://moz.com/blog/can-you-guess-which-page-ranks-better
- 4. SEOs are also no better at predicting which of two pages should rank for a keyword. @bertiecharlton PAGE 1? https://moz.com/blog/can-you-guess-which-page-ranks-better PAGE 2? 46%
- 6. @bertiecharlton You instinctively think in probabilities.
- 7. @bertiecharlton We’re not so good at communicating uncertainty.
- 8. SEOs who think probabilistically, can: @bertiecharlton Estimate their impact on performance Make more of the right decisions Create strategies that balance risk/reward Communicate uncertainty
- 9. @bertiecharlton Let’s talk about Enrico Fermi.
- 10. @bertiecharlton What information would allow me to best answer the question?
- 11. How many piano tuners are there in Chicago? @bertiecharlton # of Pianos in Chicago. How often pianos are tuned. How long it takes to tune a piano. # of hours per year a piano tuner works.
- 12. How many piano tuners are there in Chicago? @bertiecharlton # of people in Chicago? % of people that own a piano? 1.5m 3m 2.5m 2 in 100? (guesstimate) # of Pianos in Chicago. 50,000
- 13. Example: our client provides meeting room spaces across the UK. @bertiecharlton “How much organic traffic could we attract by focusing on coworking spaces in all of our locations?” Est. organic traffic per local landing page. # of local landing pages.
- 14. @bertiecharlton “How much organic traffic could we attract by focusing on coworking spaces in all of our locations?” Est. organic traffic per local landing page # of local landing pages Est. CTR Avg. search volume Est. competitor traffic Example: our client provides meeting room spaces across the UK.
- 17. 1. Which keywords are most similar?
- 18. Aggregate CTR by average position. @bertiecharlton 2. Aggregate CTR by position. 0.85%
- 19. 60,000 0.85% 510 264 750 x = Search volume CTR Clicks p/m @bertiecharlton
- 20. @bertiecharlton How do you make more of the right decisions?
- 21. Reward Probability of outcome x = What could you achieve? @bertiecharlton Expected value What are the chances this will happen?
- 22. “Should we focus on the coworking space or expand internationally in the US?” @bertiecharlton 50% 50% 790 507 70% 30% Coworking space US expansion Upper estimate (750) Lower estimate (264) Upper estimate (1,000) Lower estimate (300)
- 23. Can you test this? Have others done this before? Have you done this before? How do you improve your subjective probabilities? @bertiecharlton Split-testing? Partial rollout? Same change (this/others)? Similar change (this/others)? Competitors? Other sites? Studies? Confidence
- 25. SEO strategies should be like an investment portfolio. @bertiecharlton Digital PR campaign Website migration Technical SEO fixes
- 26. Smaller bets can prove impact early and bridge the trust gap between stakeholder or client. @bertiecharlton Added canonical tags Minor title tag changes XML sitemap index Category Restructure 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000
- 27. @bertiecharlton There’s power in tiny gains.
- 28. Your words set expectations. @bertiecharlton 20%- 80% probability 80% probability
- 29. @bertiecharlton “We will achieve a 40% increase in organic traffic in 12 months.”
- 30. @bertiecharlton “There’s a 95% probability organic traffic will increase by 20-40% in the next 12 months.”
- 31. @bertiecharlton “There’s a 95% probability organic traffic will increase by 20-40% in the next 12 months.” “We don’t have enough data to provide an estimate. ”
- 32. Anchor your estimates with business and market realities. @bertiecharlton Compare your estimates with market growth. Control your unknowns. Clarify your dependencies.