Forecasting SEO. The Next Generation - Kirsty Hulse - Linkdex Think Tank

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Forecasting SEO can be time consuming, inaccurate and resource intensive. Kirsty looks at how to scale an effective SEO forecasting process for SEO campaigns and projects.

Marketing

“The conclusion here is quite obvious: SEO
forecasting is unreliable by nature of the data.
Intelligent estimates can be produced, though
doing so is immensely time consuming and a poor
allocation of resource.”
Sam Crocker, 2010

Then we started doing a lot of this...
Search volume / Projected rank / Average CTR
= potential traffic / CR = potential revenue

The different forecasting psychologies
Optimist
It's a big opportunity,
let's smash it
Low baller
forecast low and
exceed expectation
Statistician
Best statistical
method possible
Sales & CSAnalystsSEOsMe

The reason Worf & Guinan don’t get
along is because actually, they’re
doing different things

Forecasting vs Opportunity analysis
- not the same data!

Opportunity Analysis
Identifying the size of the market opportunity.
What can happen.
Forecasting
Estimating or predicting what will happen

Historical data is essential
https://www.distilled.net/forecaster/

If you have outliers in your data you
can also use this...
http://kirstyhulse.com/forecasting-for-seo/

We need to use a search volume/CTR
model to add specific SEO
activity/page level impact to the
baseline

I googled ‘ctr studies’ and in the top 10 results
a first place position captures about...

31.24%
17.16
%
18.20
%40.20%
21.24%
35.12%

Calculate CTR with GWT
https://www.branded3.com/blog/calculate-true-ctr-wmt/

Test with SERP Turkey
http://www.tomanthony.co.uk/tools/serp-turkey/create_new.php

Take your baseline and add in
proposed traffic increases from SEO
activity

Forecasting is NOT the first thing you do

● Based on investment
● Based on proposed
activity
● Based on sign off
● Based on
implementation

Forecasting link campaigns
Down with link targets!

Page level forecasts against proposed
activity = tangible page level reporting
against proposed activity = proving
value = JOY

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2. Once upon a time...

4. “The conclusion here is quite obvious: SEO forecasting is unreliable by nature of the data. Intelligent estimates can be produced, though doing so is immensely time consuming and a poor allocation of resource.” Sam Crocker, 2010

7. Then we started doing a lot of this... Search volume / Projected rank / Average CTR = potential traffic / CR = potential revenue

8. 78% forecast their activity

10. 75% say their forecasts are wrong

11. It doesn’t have to be this

12.

13. But first, some considerations...

14. The different forecasting psychologies Optimist It's a big opportunity, let's smash it Low baller forecast low and exceed expectation Statistician Best statistical method possible Sales & CSAnalystsSEOsMe

15. The reason Worf & Guinan don’t get along is because actually, they’re doing different things

16. Forecasting vs Opportunity analysis - not the same data!

17. Opportunity Analysis Identifying the size of the market opportunity. What can happen. Forecasting Estimating or predicting what will happen

18. Is it so bad to be wrong?!

19. When good is good enough

20.

21.

22. Historical data is essential https://www.distilled.net/forecaster/

23. As a baseline

24. If you have outliers in your data you can also use this... http://kirstyhulse.com/forecasting-for-seo/

25. We need to use a search volume/CTR model to add specific SEO activity/page level impact to the baseline

26. I googled ‘ctr studies’ and in the top 10 results a first place position captures about...

27. 31.24% 17.16 % 18.20 %40.20% 21.24% 35.12%

28. Big brand Big brand Who?!

29.

30. Brand size Search Engine Desktop Mobile Search Volume

31.

32. Work out your own CTR

33. Calculate CTR with GWT https://www.branded3.com/blog/calculate-true-ctr-wmt/

34. Test with SERP Turkey http://www.tomanthony.co.uk/tools/serp-turkey/create_new.php

35.

36. Take your baseline and add in proposed traffic increases from SEO activity

37. Forecasting is NOT the first thing you do

38.

39. ● Based on investment ● Based on proposed activity ● Based on sign off ● Based on implementation

40. Forecasting adding new pages

41. Forecasting link campaigns Down with link targets!

42. Page level forecasts against proposed activity = tangible page level reporting against proposed activity = proving value = JOY

43. Thank you!

Editor's Notes

Sam Crocker on SEO as a poor allocation of resourcehttp://www.stateofdigital.com/seo-forecasting-a-poor-allocation-of-resource/
We lived long and we prospered. Budgets grew and we started being taken more seriously as a legitimate channel, meaning, we had to grow up and forecast out impact
http://www.linkdex.com/blog/survey-forecasting-importance/
On average tracked at 93% accuracy
SEOs often tend to see an opportunity analysis as a forecast, this is where we get in to bother.
decide if actually, the forecast doesn’t need to be that accurate, then use tools. If it does, this requires effort time and resource, but can be done.
Variables that help you grind out the marginal gains
IF it’s essential, IF you have time and IF then let’s make it so
We still need to tie this back to various scenarious of effort and proposed revenue
he number of impressions served (i.e. the number of searches logged) for a keyword has a significant impact. Greater numbers of impressions per keyword seem to reduce the magnitude of CTR across all positions in the top 10.
All this leads to discrepancies. Which, might be fine, and given forecasting is never going to be 100%. But, if you need to try and work with something more specific to you then
but! this is faff, so only IF you decide it’s worthwhile
Links are just one of the many strategies we use to hit the goal. If you tie every camapign in to the wider forecast, base your ideas on keyword opportunity then you have already forecast your link campaigns.

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