This document summarizes a research report from UBS Investment Research on commodity demand and prices. It discusses the outlook for copper, iron ore, and metallurgical coal over both the short-term (next 3 years) and long-term. In the short-term, prices will be driven by China's demand growth and supply diversification. Over the long-term, a key factor will be ensuring adequate mine supply growth to meet demand as no substitutes exist for these commodities.

1. This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Australia Ltd
UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be
aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should
consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Nov 19 2013
UBS Investment Research
ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON SLIDE 16
www.ubs.com/investmentresearch
Ghee Peh
Analyst
Email: ghee.peh@ubs.com
Tel: +852 2971 6448
Commodities – Mining & Metals
From copper to met coal: Demand and price outlook

2. SECTION 1
Commodities outlook

3. 2
Copper: supply growth is real
10
60
110
160
210
260
Oct-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
China’s (SHFE) copper inventories (kt)
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
22-Mar-13
19-Apr-13
17-May-13
14-Jun-13
12-Jul-13
9-Aug-13
6-Sep-13
4-Oct-13
LME&SHFECuprices(US$/lb)
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
diff.SHFE3mthCuprem/-disctoLME
LME SHFE diff. (RHS)
SHFE 3mth Cu Prem/-Disc to LME (last 3 months)
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
0
200
400
600
800
1,000SHFE Comex
LME (kt) - RHS Price (US$/lb) - LHS
Copper global stocks vs. LME price (kt, US$/lb)
Sources: Bloomberg, LME, SHFE, Comex
• Short-term (next 3 years) price drivers: China’s seasonality in
trade; traditional market restocking
• Longer-term price drivers: mine supply growth a critical theme;
no commercial substitutes exist
• China: 2013 total supply isn’t keeping up with its record-high semis
production rate – creating a metal shortfall.
• key market signals highlight stability too => rate-of-cancelled-warrants
has slowed but remains relatively high + all major merchant premia
(China/US/Europe) are also still high) + LME/SHFE price differential
@ parity + global exchange inventories are easing (modestly bullish)
•
• we see adequate concentrate supply in Q4 + an-end-to-seasonal
trade => there’s downside risk from here, going into 2014.
• this year, copper’s price has been buoyed by the US Fed’s proposed
QE ‘tapering’ program (implies actual Cu-demand growth imminent),
then undermined by uncertainty over ‘US shutdown’ (now delayed). It
highlights how Cu-traders are heavily influenced by macro-factors.
• key long-term theme for copper: global mine supply growth; 3-5%
for 2013-14, reflects diverse supply growth; brown/greenfield, from
mostly South America, Asia, Africa.
• structural shift in mine supply key: dominance of massive porphyry
deposits of Sth America in last 40 years has negated ongoing
exploration work, creating shortage. Next suite of deposits? Central
Africa (Copper Belt), Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan). These
need 3-5 years for development. Supply growth appears adequate.

4. 33
Copper: China's semis output vs. total contained Cu-supply
Source: China Customs; UBS Research; assumes China held 500kt of total inventories at the start of 2009
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
consumption&production(kt/mth)
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
monthlybalance&inventories(kt/mth)
appt consumptiontotal copper
copper semis production
total inventories
monthlybalance

5. 4
Iron ore: China steel growth vs supply surge
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
milliontonnes
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Jan-04
Nov-04
Sep-05
Jul-06
May-07
Mar-08
Jan-09
Nov-09
Sep-10
Jul-11
May-12
Mar-13
US$/t
India-China spot
Braz.
Aust.
China domestic
China’s iron ore prices (kt)
China’s iron ore port stockpiles (kt)
Source: Bloomberg, Tex Report, Metalytics
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jul-02
May-03
Mar-04
Jan-05
Nov-05
Sep-06
Jul-07
May-08
Mar-09
Jan-10
Nov-10
Sep-11
Jul-12
May-13
US$/t
Brazil/Australia to Asia freight differential
• Short-term (next 3 years) price drivers: China’s demand
growth; supply diversification; price mechanism change
• Longer-term price drivers: evolution of supply-side, away from
3-way oligopoly
• Primary gauges of iron ore’s short-term demand continue to be
China’s monthly import rate (currently 65-75Mt/mth; record-high 75Mt
for Sep), and the spot price (holding at US$130-140/t cfr)
• Spot signals lifted sharply coming into 2013, reflecting China’s
seasonal restock, together with a lack of Indian ore (politically
constrained) – ahead of the CYH1 lift in steel production rates.
• Demand: Robust steel production rates in China averted the risk of an
iron ore price correction in Q3. The risk remains for Q4 though, until
evidence of a seasonal cut in steel production rates occurs (Oct).
• Supply: looming supply growth of >500Mtpa (extra 50%) over the
next 5-years cannot be ignored
• availability of spot ore is lifting in 2013Q4, driven mostly by Rio
Tinto’s commissioning of 290-project.
• Return of Indian ore is a risk to prices, 2013 likely to be
<15Mtpa, way down on 100-120Mtpa exports in last few years.
• China continues to invest in non-Rio/Vale/BHP supply sources,
undermining the pricing power of the majors (in Africa mainly).
• Longer-term (>2-3 years), uncertainty over the timing & scale of
China’s infrastructure programs (rail, bridges, roads, power stations,
towns – away from developed eastern seaboard), to provide support
for the trade’s outlook.
.

6. 55
Iron ore: range trading + seasonality – it’s real
Iron ore spot indices (US$/t fob)
Source: UBS Research, McCloskey, Tex Report, Platts
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Feb-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Nov-11
May-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
US$/tfob
Aust.
Sth Africa
India West
India East
Brazil
China crude steel production rates (Mtpa annualised)
Source: CISA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
09-Feb1st
09-Jun1st
09-Oct1st
10-Feb1st
10-Jun1st
10-Oct1st
11-Feb1st
11-Jun1st
11-Oct1st
12-Feb1st
12-Jun1st
12-Oct1st
13-Feb1st
13-Jun1st
Mtpa
(annualised)
No Iron ore Correction Iron ore Correction
Total crude steel production - composite index
Source: Bloomberg
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
jan
feb
mar
apr
may
jun
jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
Australian Iron ore supply (Mt/mth)
Source: UBS Research
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

7. 6
Iron ore: break even prices
Vale RIO BHP FMG Kumba Cliffs -
Canada &
Australia
Ferrexpo MMX
Volume 310 290 240 150 44 41 11 7
Local currency BRL AUD AUD AUD ZAR CAD&AUD UAH BRL
Currency rate to USD 2.16 0.96 0.96 0.96 10 0.92 8 2.16
Unit Costs - FOB Local currency/wmt 58 26 28 38 331 83 435 157
SG&A Local currency/wmt 11 1 1 1 20 4 40 54
Exploration Local currency/wmt 4 1 1 1 20 1 3 4
Sustaining Capex Local currency/wmt 17 7 5 7 38 12 78 2
Interest Local currency/wmt 10 3 3 6 3 42 80
Total Cash Outgoings Local currency/wmt 100 38 38 53 408 103 598 297
Unit Costs - FOB US$/wmt 27 25 27 36 33 76 54 73
SG&A US$/wmt 5 1 1 1 2 4 5 25
Exploration US$/wmt 2 1 1 1 2 1 0 2
Sustaining Capex US$/wmt 8 7 5 7 4 11 10 1
Interest US$/wmt 5 3 3 6 0 3 5 37
Total Cash Outgoings US$/wmt 46 36 36 51 41 95 75 138
Royalties % 2.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 5.0 5.0 2.0 2.0
Royalties US$/wmt 1 3 3 4 2 5 2 3
Price Req'd to be Cash Breakeven - FOB US$/wmt 47 39 39 55 43 100 76 140
Implied cfr price to Breakeven
Price Req'd to be Cash Breakeven - FOB US$/wmt 47 39 39 55 43 100 76 140
Moisture content % 6% 6% 6% 9% 2% 3% 1% 6%
Adjusted for Moisture US$/dmt 50 42 42 60 44 103 77 149
Quality/Contract Adjustment % 0% 0% 0% -5% 0% 0% -1% 0%
Quality/Contract Adjustment US$/dmt 50 42 42 64 44 103 78 149
Fe Content % 65.0% 62.0% 62.0% 57.0% 64.0% 65.0% 63.5% 63.0%
Adjusted for Fe Content (62% equivalent) US$/dmt 48 42 42 69 42 98 76 147
Pellet premium US$/dmt 22
Price Req'd to be Cash Breakeven - FOB US$/dmt 48 42 42 69 42 98 54 147
Freight Adjustment US$/dmt 20 10 10 10 15 20 22 20
62% Fe equiv. to be Cash Breakeven - cfr US$/dmt 68 52 52 79 57 118 76 167
Source: UBS Research

8. 7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Sep-03
Jul-04
May-05
Mar-06
Jan-07
Nov-07
Sep-08
Jul-09
May-10
Mar-11
Jan-12
Nov-12
spot HCC
HCC
PCI
SSCC
50
125
200
275
350
425
500
Jan-08
Dec-08
Nov-09
Oct-10
Sep-11
Aug-12
Aust. spot (US$/t fob)
Shanxi premium (US$/t)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1-Oct-10
22-Dec-10
14-Mar-11
4-Jun-11
25-Aug-11
15-Nov-11
5-Feb-12
27-Apr-12
18-Jul-12
8-Oct-12
29-Dec-12
21-Mar-13
11-Jun-13
1-Sep-13
US$/t
cfr China low-vol
fob Aust. low-vol
fob Aust. mid-vol
Met-coal: US remains the swing producer
Australia vs. China: spot HCC prices (US$/t)
Source: Platts, CRU
Met Coal prices (US$/t fob)
Australia vs. China: spot HCC prices (US$/t)
• Short-term (next 3 years) price drivers: China’s domestic vs.
seaborne supply/price trade-off
• Longer-term price drivers: mine supply shortage for high-grade
products is a risk; no commercial substitutes
• spot prices in 2013 for HCC + PCI + SSCC have recovered from mid-
year lows, re-rating to US$150/t fob for top-grade HCC.
• this recovery should preserve most production capacity, including
marginal US supply.
• we’re modest bears longer-term: supply growth is adequate; China’s
merely arb-ing domestic + seaborne (Shanxi’s producing at record-
highs again) + India’s not driving demand (economy’s weak) +
Mongolian coal supply to China is promising to lift.
• key risk to a bear-view? underperforming supply growth for new
centres of Mozambique (Rio’s writedown) + Mongolia (govt wants
more) + India (difficult to quantify this key demand growth driver).
• US is set to maintain its position as the trade’s swing producer over the
medium-term.
• note, price mechanism has changed; new ‘quarterly pricing’ culture
looks just like annual benchmark – only its quarterly. don’t get used to
it; slowly shifting to mostly spot-terms.
• 2013Q4 deals include HCC US$152/tfob; (+5%qoq; $148/tfob spot);
LV-PCI $120-121/tfob (+4%qoq; $116/tfob spot); SSCC $105.5/t fob
(flat; $95/tfob spot) – all done late Sep-to-early Oct.

9. 8
Capex by key commodities
Iron ore capex
Source: UBS Research and company filings
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
US$bn
Vale Rio Tinto BHP Billiton Fortescue Anglo American Juniors
Seaborne iron ore volume growth
Source: UBS Research
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
Mt
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Seaborne iron ore volume [LHS] % change y-o-y [RHS]
Thermal Coal Industry Capex
Source: UBS Research and company filings
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
US$bn
Met Coal Industry Capex
Source: UBS Research and company filings
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
US$bn

10. 9
Capex by key commodities - copper
Copper industry capex (US$bn) and copper price (US$/lb)
Source: UBS Research and company filings
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0majors juniors copper price
Copper mine supply growth
Source: UBS Research and company filings
10
12
14
16
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
Mine Supply -
Mtpa [LHS]
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
yoy growth
[RHS]

11. 1010
UBS price forecasts (as at 15-Oct-13)
Source: UBS Research
Base Metals, Ferroalloys, O units 2012 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2013E 1H13 2H13 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E LT real
Aluminium US$/lb 0.92 0.91 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.84 0.87 0.80 0.85 0.90 1.00 1.21 1.24 1.10
Copper US$/lb 3.61 3.59 3.25 3.21 3.10 3.29 3.42 3.16 2.90 2.85 2.85 2.81 2.88 2.55
Lead US$/lb 0.94 1.04 0.93 0.95 0.95 0.97 0.98 0.95 1.00 1.10 1.12 1.10 1.13 1.00
Nickel US$/lb 7.95 7.84 6.80 6.33 5.90 6.72 7.32 6.11 6.20 7.50 8.50 9.02 9.25 8.20
Zinc US$/lb 0.88 0.92 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.85 0.93 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.96 0.85
Cobalt US$/lb 14.0 12.4 13.3 14.0 13.5 13.3 12.9 13.7 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.7 13.0 11.5
Molybdenum US$/lb 12.8 11.4 11.1 9.6 9.5 10.4 11.3 9.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 9.4 9.6 8.5
Manganese ore US$/dry tonne 4.76 5.51 5.72 5.28 5.00 5.38 5.61 5.14 4.75 4.60 4.50 4.40 4.51 4.00
Uranium US$/lb 49.0 42.8 40.7 36.6 37.0 39.3 41.8 36.8 47.5 60.0 65.0 66.0 67.7 60.0
Crude oil (WTI) US$/bbl 94.1 94.3 94.1 105.8 95.0 97.3 94.2 100.4 93.5 89.0 86.0 86.3 88.4 78.4
Precious Metals
Gold US$/oz 1,668 1,631 1,416 1,327 1,375 1,437 1,524 1,351 1,325 1,200 1,250 1,210 1,241 1,100
Palladium US$/oz 646 741 715 725 760 735 728 742 825 850 825 825 846 750
Platinum US$/oz 1,552 1,633 1,469 1,454 1,475 1,508 1,551 1,465 1,600 1,900 2,060 2,179 2,233 1,980
Rhodium US$/oz 1,275 1,198 1,117 996 1,050 1,090 1,158 1,023 1,320 1,550 2,000 3,521 3,609 3,200
Silver US$/oz 31.1 30.1 23.2 21.3 22.5 24.3 26.7 21.9 25.0 24.0 25.0 24.2 24.8 22.0
A$/US$ 1.036 1.039 0.992 0.916 0.930 0.969 1.015 0.923 0.930 0.912 0.886 0.850 0.850 0.850
Bulk Commodities
Iron Ore - lump (Pilbara) US$/mtu fob 2.082 2.361 2.044 2.140 1.952 2.124 2.202 2.046 1.883 1.703 1.540 1.526 1.565 1.387
US$/t fob 129.1 146.4 126.7 132.7 121.0 131.7 136.5 126.9 116.8 105.6 95.5 94.6 97.0 86.0
%chg yoy 2.0% -11.3% -9.6% -9.6% -0.9% 2.5% -11.3%
Iron Ore - fines (Pilbara) US$/mtu fob 1.963 2.265 1.904 1.970 1.774 1.978 2.085 1.872 1.715 1.536 1.346 1.278 1.310 1.161
US$/t fob 121.7 140.5 118.0 122.2 110.0 122.7 129.2 116.1 106.3 95.3 83.5 79.2 81.2 72.0
%chg yoy 0.8% -13.3% -10.4% -12.4% -5.1% 2.5% -11.3%
Hard Coking Coal US$/t fob 209.0 165.0 172.0 145.0 152.0 158.5 168.5 148.5 158.8 150.0 150.0 143.1 146.6 130.0
%chg yoy -24% 0% -6% 0% -5% 3% -11%
Low Volatile PCI US$/t fob 152.8 124.0 141.0 116.0 120.5 125.4 132.5 118.3 123.5 125.0 122.0 121.0 124.1 110.0
%chg yoy -18% -1% 1% -2% -1% 3% -11%
Semi Soft US$/t fob 131.3 120.0 121.0 105.0 105.5 112.9 120.5 105.3 111.8 115.0 112.0 110.0 112.8 100.0
%chg yoy -14% -1% 3% -3% -2% 3% -11%
JFY13 JFY14E JFY15E JFY16E JFY17E JFY18E JFY19E LT real
Thermal Coal US$/t fob 95.0 85.0 90.0 90.0 93.2 95.6 98.0 85.0
%chg yoy -11% 6% 0% 4% 3% 3% -13%
UBS Commodity Price Forecasts (as at 15-Oct-13)

12. 1111
UBS supply-demand forecasts (as at 15-Oct-13)
Source: UBS estimates
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e
Global commodity balances
Aluminium (Mt) supply 29.89 31.94 33.82 38.09 39.98 37.50 42.66 45.90 47.90 50.05 52.77 55.39 58.09 60.45
demand 30.02 31.82 34.30 38.00 37.68 35.60 41.53 45.04 47.01 49.28 52.03 54.89 57.93 60.45
balance -0.13 0.11 -0.48 0.09 2.29 1.91 1.13 0.86 0.89 0.77 0.74 0.50 0.16 -0.00
Alumina (Mt) supply 59.54 62.35 69.66 76.63 82.76 74.52 83.84 90.16 93.98 97.66 102.92 107.87 113.10 117.60
demand 58.56 62.62 66.30 74.95 78.24 72.90 83.85 89.93 93.80 97.67 102.96 107.89 113.11 117.58
balance 0.98 -0.27 3.36 1.68 4.52 1.62 -0.01 0.23 0.18 -0.02 -0.04 -0.02 -0.01 0.02
Copper (Mt) supply 15.94 16.60 17.30 18.04 18.34 18.34 18.95 19.78 20.55 21.52 22.26 22.97 23.46 23.94
demand 15.96 16.61 17.31 18.04 18.33 18.33 18.96 19.79 20.55 21.32 22.04 22.78 23.48 23.96
balance -0.03 -0.01 -0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.20 0.22 0.19 -0.01 -0.02
Nickel (Mt) supply 1.292 1.274 1.400 1.398 1.283 1.328 1.521 1.641 1.741 1.838 1.953 1.993 2.057 2.103
demand 1.293 1.272 1.401 1.397 1.282 1.327 1.522 1.639 1.738 1.813 1.921 1.987 2.056 2.107
balance -0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.00 -0.00
Zinc (Mt) supply 10.06 10.07 10.50 11.23 11.55 11.28 12.42 12.71 13.03 13.19 13.73 14.18 14.64 14.71
demand 10.04 10.08 10.54 11.26 11.56 11.32 12.41 12.73 13.00 13.24 13.74 14.18 14.64 14.70
balance 0.03 -0.01 -0.04 -0.03 -0.01 -0.04 0.01 -0.02 0.03 -0.05 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01
Lead (Mt) supply 7.14 7.73 8.13 8.38 8.84 9.10 9.65 10.19 10.55 10.95 11.43 11.76 12.21 12.78
demand 7.22 7.80 8.19 8.40 8.82 9.06 9.63 10.19 10.53 10.95 11.46 11.93 12.38 12.80
balance -0.07 -0.07 -0.06 -0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.02 -0.17 -0.17 -0.02
Steel (Mt; slab) supply 1061.2 1146.6 1249.0 1347.0 1341.2 1235.8 1431.7 1518.3 1547.8 1594.4 1653.9 1702.0 1739.9 1797.1
demand 1061.8 1144.1 1248.0 1336.4 1328.1 1236.0 1422.9 1500.5 1547.8 1594.7 1654.1 1702.1 1739.9 1809.5
balance -0.57 2.48 1.01 10.61 13.07 -0.15 8.73 17.84 0.00 -0.33 -0.21 -0.08 0.00 -12.43
Iron ore (Mt; seaborne) supply 610.0 682.3 733.7 790.6 860.2 930.4 1015.9 1080.5 1131.2 1212.1 1373.6 1516.0 1628.4 1682.0
demand 608.2 678.7 732.4 788.5 854.7 910.1 1011.8 1078.4 1130.0 1188.4 1219.9 1302.2 1359.6 1432.3
balance 1.81 3.54 1.27 2.06 5.46 20.30 4.09 2.04 1.14 23.77 153.66 213.73 268.82 249.73
Iron ore (Mt; global) supply 1231.7 1394.1 1556.4 1684.0 1691.1 1576.7 1791.6 1844.4 1963.0 2045.4 2286.5 2421.7 2515.0 2553.8
demand 1190.0 1337.2 1474.3 1597.1 1611.7 1507.4 1727.8 1821.1 1928.0 1971.2 2023.8 2065.6 2084.5 2129.3
balance 41.68 56.86 82.12 86.90 79.37 69.31 63.83 23.30 35.07 74.21 262.71 356.09 430.48 424.50
Metallurgical coal (seaborne, Mt) supply 215.6 215.4 211.3 231.9 238.8 227.7 278.1 280.8 293.3 319.7 335.5 348.2 358.3 365.0
demand 216.1 215.2 211.3 232.3 238.6 227.9 278.3 280.7 293.3 308.7 312.6 317.8 329.5 342.5
balance -0.56 0.17 0.08 -0.39 0.20 -0.15 -0.23 0.06 0.03 11.05 22.83 30.38 28.75 22.49
Thermal coal (seaborne, Mt) supply 512.1 561.7 619.6 656.1 661.0 680.3 740.2 805.4 889.5 943.5 982.8 1017.9 1044.4 1058.9
demand 512.1 561.4 619.3 655.5 660.0 680.3 739.3 804.8 887.8 935.3 947.2 958.5 982.1 992.7
balance 0.07 0.28 0.35 0.53 0.98 0.02 0.83 0.59 1.69 8.16 35.67 59.34 62.25 66.22
Uranium (Mlbs) supply 172.2 170.8 173.3 186.8 180.6 183.5 191.8 196.6 191.6 179.9 193.5 208.5 225.3 242.5
demand 172.2 170.8 173.3 186.8 180.6 183.5 191.8 196.6 175.5 176.4 193.5 208.7 226.5 244.0
balance 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 16.09 3.52 -0.05 -0.20 -1.21 -1.56
Gold (Moz) supply 124.2 132.7 128.4 128.2 129.1 140.9 143.5 145.2 143.1 138.4 140.1 141.5 142.9 144.1
demand 127.5 124.0 124.9 129.5 139.1 124.3 135.9 148.3 142.7 128.0 140.4 141.8 144.9 148.9
balance -3.28 8.68 3.47 -1.32 -10.00 16.53 7.59 -3.12 0.48 10.41 -0.29 -0.30 -2.00 -4.76
Silver (Moz) supply 874.2 951.7 926.0 911.6 914.3 929.0 1076.2 1068.7 1048.3 1102.6 1086.6 1119.4 1149.4 1174.2
demand 868.8 888.3 1007.6 982.4 995.8 929.6 1033.7 907.0 942.4 888.8 959.3 979.7 998.6 1018.7
balance 5 63 -82 -71 -81 -1 42 162 106 214 127 140 151 156
Platinum (Moz) supply 7.18 7.91 8.25 8.19 7.77 7.43 7.88 8.53 7.67 7.87 8.07 8.20 8.42 8.54
demand 7.23 7.97 7.89 8.27 7.99 6.80 7.91 8.10 8.05 8.68 8.49 8.76 9.04 9.22
balance -0.05 -0.05 0.36 -0.08 -0.22 0.64 -0.03 0.43 -0.38 -0.81 -0.41 -0.56 -0.62 -0.68
Palladium (Moz) supply 7.21 8.85 8.54 9.57 8.57 8.07 8.67 9.06 8.21 8.49 8.70 8.86 9.07 9.19
demand 7.09 7.98 7.42 7.85 7.78 7.37 9.20 7.88 9.28 9.41 9.84 10.02 10.22 10.39
balance 0.12 0.87 1.12 1.72 0.80 0.71 -0.53 1.18 -1.07 -0.92 -1.14 -1.16 -1.14 -1.20
Titanium pigment (Mt) supply 4.66 4.71 4.92 5.15 4.97 4.37 5.33 5.51 4.71 5.40 5.57 5.94 5.94 5.94
demand 4.64 4.62 4.75 5.14 4.88 4.69 5.31 5.52 4.80 5.28 5.47 5.67 5.87 6.08
balance 0.02 0.09 0.17 0.01 0.10 -0.32 0.02 -0.01 -0.09 0.12 0.10 0.27 0.07 -0.14
Zircon (Mt) supply 1.17 1.20 1.21 1.24 1.16 0.99 1.32 1.42 1.19 0.87 1.33 1.52 1.67 1.76
demand 1.17 1.20 1.21 1.24 1.16 0.99 1.32 1.37 0.94 1.13 1.28 1.36 1.41 1.45
balance 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.25 -0.26 0.05 0.16 0.26 0.31

13. SECTION 2
China's impact on global market

14. China's economy outlook to affect demand
13
• Our China economic team believes
– Q3 rebound was benefited from earlier credit growth and restocking in some sectors
– Going forward, they expect slower credit can lead to slower growth, and restocking momentum will fade
– The strength of exports and property determine Q4 and 2014 GDP growth (7.8%)
– Urbanization-related investment rush in an upside risk
• Demand side: Power output growth is recovering
– Thermal power output is up 9.7%YoY for June, 16.7%YoY for Jul and 23.2%YoY for Aug, and 17%YoY for Sep
– Hydropower output has been declining since July
• China's coal import is increasing
– After temporary decline in June, China's July import picks up the rising trend and up 18%YoY, slowing down in August, rising 38% in Sept
– Mainly driven by rising coking coal import to prepare for steel output high season from late Q3 to Q4
– Shanxi benchmark coking coal price has risen Rmb150/t (+16.0%) from the YTD lowest level of Rmb960/t in August
Major downstream demand indicators
Unit H113 %YoY chg 13-Jun %YoY chg 13-Jul %YoY chg 13-Aug %YoY chg 13-Sep %YoY chg
Total power output kWh bn 1,987 5.0% 425 8.1% 479 10.2% 499 14.0% 431 10.3%
Thermal power output kWh bn 1,652 5.9% 324 9.7% 375 16.7% 395 23.2% 332 16.6%
Hydropower output kWh bn 246 11.4% 82 8.2% 85 -6.8% 84 -10.9% 78 -7.1%
Steel mt 324 9.6% 65 7.4% 65 6.1% 66 12.9% 65 12.9%
Cement mt 863 8.3% 228 9.8% 212 10.8% 215 9.9% 225 7.3%
Coal output mt 1,750 -6.0% 335 -3.9% 300 -11.8% 300 -7.0% 315 -1.3%
Import mt 159 13.3% 22 -17.9% 29 18.0% 26 7.0% 26 38.1%
Source: sxcoal, CEIC, UBS estimates

15. 14
China’s material: intensive growth to slow
• BHP’s view here is more bullish than that of UBS
• at UBS, we expect China’s evolution will resemble that
of the US…
• …but be careful of comparisons with export economies
South Korea & Japan

16. 1515
China's %-share of commodities' demand (sorted on 2015 data)
Source: UBS estimates
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
ironore(seaborne)
lead
ironore(global)
met-coal(global)
aluminium
alumina
zinc
steel
copper
thermalcoal(global)
nickel
Ti-pigment
thermalcoal(seaborne)
LNG
met-coal(seaborne)
crudeoil
uranium
zircon
2006 2009 2012 2015

17. 16
Disclosures & Analyst Certification
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18. 17
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UBS Securities Asia Limited: Ghee Peh
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19. 18
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