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Lincoln crowne copper gold weekly report 15072013
1. 15th July 2013 WWW.LCC.ASIA
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be
accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee
or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is
made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied
upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made.
WEEKLYAustralianCopperGoldReport
Page
1/4
Price Rebound Provides Some Breathing Space
Global Economy Fundamentals
Source: Capital IQ, COMEX, LME, SHFE, Thomson Reuters, LCC research
Note: the SHFE copper price is based on the LME 3-month price and includes CIF premium, tax and duty.
Metals
Last Close Price
(in USD)
YTD Change 4-Week Change Week Change Energy and Commodities
Last Close Price
(in USD)
YTD Change 4-Week Change Week Change
Gold Comex ($/oz) 1278 ▼ -24% ▼ -1% ▲ 5% Crude Oil ($/barrel) 105.6 ▲ 15.0% ▲ 12.7% ▲ 2%
Silver ($/oz) 19.8 ▼ -35% ▼ -1% ▲ 6% Natural Gas ($/m BTU) 3.6 ▲ 8.3% ▼ -3.8% ▲ 1%
Copper LME ($/lb) 3.16 ▼ -14% ▲ 2% ▲ 3% Coal - Central Appalachian 55.6 ▼ -10.6% ▲ 3.5% ▼ 0%
Platinum ($/oz) 1410 ▼ -8% ▲ 3% ▲ 6% Corn ($/bushel) 5.1 ▼ -27.1% ▼ -8.5% ▲ 4%
Palladium ($/oz) 723 ▲ 3% ▲ 7% ▲ 7% Wheat ($/bushel) 6.8 ▼ -12.5% ▼ -3.4% ▲ 3%
Exchange Rates Last Close Price YTD Change 4-Week Change Week Change Global Index Last Close Price YTD Change 4-Week Change Week Change
AUD/USD 0.91 ▼ -13% ▼ -1% ▼ 0% ASX 200 4973.9 ▲ 7% ▲ 5% ▲ 3%
EUR/USD 1.31 ▼ -1% ▼ -1% ▲ 2% Dow Jones Industry Average 15464.3 ▲ 18% ▲ 4% ▲ 2%
GBP/USD 1.51 ▼ -7% ▼ -2% ▲ 1% NYSE 9498.5 ▲ 12% ▲ 5% ▲ 3%
RMB/USD 0.16 ▲ 2% ▼ 0% ▼ 0% FTSE 100 6544.9 ▲ 11% ▲ 7% ▲ 3%
INR/USD 0.0168 ▼ -8% ▼ -1% ▲ 1% Shang Hai Exchange 2039.5 ▼ -10% ▼ -2% ▲ 2%
YEN/USD 0.0101 ▼ -13% ▼ -2% ▲ 2% Nikkei 225 14506.3 ▲ 40% ▲ 10% ▲ 1%
CAD/USD 0.96 ▼ -4% ▲ 1% ▲ 2% CAC 40 3855.1 ▲ 6% ▲ 5% ▲ 3%
ZAR/USD 0.10 ▼ -15% ▲ 2% ▲ 2% German DAX 8212.8 ▲ 8% ▲ 5% ▲ 5%
CHF/USD 1.06 ▼ -3% ▼ -1% ▲ 2% Hang Seng Index 21277.3 ▼ -6% ▲ 5% ▲ 2%
4600
4800
5000
5200
5400
Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13
S&P/ASX 300 Index 3-Month Performance
(XJO)
3.50
3.70
3.90
4.10
4.30
4.50
20
40
60
80
100
Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13
SHFE Copper Daily Price and Stocks
Stocks ('000 t) Price (US$/lb)
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13
Gold Price 3-Month Performance
Gold Price US$/oz Gold Price A$/oz
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
200
400
600
800
Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13
LME Copper Daily Price and Stocks
Stocks ('000 t) Price (US$/lb)
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
0
50
100
150
200
Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13
COMEX Copper Daily Price and Volume
Volume ('000 lot) Price (US$/lb)
3.50
3.70
3.90
4.10
4.30
4.50
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13
SHFE Copper Daily Price and Volume
Volume ('000 lot) Price (US$/lb)
20
40
60
80
100
Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
COMEX Copper Daily Price and Stocks
Stocks ('000 t) Price (US$/lb)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan 08 Dec 08 Nov 09 Oct 10 Sep 11 Aug 12 Jul 13
S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index
(XGD)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Jan 08 Dec 08 Nov 09 Oct 10 Sep 11 Aug 12 Jul 13
S&P ASX Small Resources Index
(XSR)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Jan 08 Dec 08 Nov 09 Oct 10 Sep 11 Aug 12 Jul 13
S&P/ASX 200 Resources Index
(XJR)
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13
China Monthly Copper Import Volume and
Average Price (US$/lb)
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
0
100
200
300
400
Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13
LME Copper Daily Price and Volume
Volume ('000 lot) Price (US$/lb)
2. 15th July 2013 WWW.LCC.ASIA
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be
accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee
or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is
made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied
upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made.
WEEKLYAustralianCopperGoldReport
Page
2/4
Markets
Copper and gold prices rallied on signs the US Federal Reserve may maintain economic stimulus for a while longer.
Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold has resumed shipments from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia after the world's second
largest copper mine gained government permission to resume underground operations.
Rio Tinto has finally been authorised to ship copper concentrate from its US$6.2 billion Oyu Tolgoi gold and copper mine in
Mongolia's Gobi Desert. The event was celebrated by Robert Friedland. Twelve years ago on 17 July 2001, Ivanhoe Mines
reported its deep drilling had discovered a zone of “potentially significant gold, copper and molybdenum mineralisation” at
Turquoise Hill (Oyu Tolgoi). The discovery and development of the mine has put Mongolia on the international resources map.
China's copper imports in June rose nearly 6% to 379,951 tonnes, the highest since September 2012 and up from 358,672
tonnes in May 2013, as domestic supplies are quite tight and top Chinese smelters have been holding their material rather than
selling on low prices. A shortage of scrap copper also contributed to more demand for the refined metal. June's figure was up 9.7%
from the same month last year imports of copper. Nevertheless, copper imports over H1 2013 are 15% lower than last year.
The Democratic Republic of Congo has delayed until year-end a ban on exports of copper and cobalt concentrates designed to
encourage miners to refine the red metal within its borders. The DRC first ordered the ban in April but gave mining companies 90
days to clear their stockpiles. The ban appears unrealistic and a political stunt.
Codelco, the world's leading producer of copper, is dissatisfied with the Chilean government's US$1 billion budget and needs to
consider selling some non-essential properties to fund its investment plans. Codelco intended to spend around US$27 billion
over the next few years to increase its yearly production from the current 1.8 million tonnes to 2.1mt by 2021.
Zijin Mining Group announced a profit warning for its first half 2013 earnings, indicating that the net profit for H1 2013 is expected
45-55% lower than in H1 2012.
Copper Producers
Source: Capital IQ, ASX announcements, LCC research. C1 and C3 costs as reported in last quarter, except for TGS, LCC estimate.
Emerging Copper Companies
Source: Capital IQ, ASX announcements, LCC research. C1 costs and capex as estimated and announced by the respective companies.
Ticker Company Name
Open
Price
Close
Price
High
Price
Low
Price
Weekly
Change
Market
Cap
(A$m)
52 Week
Range
Cash
(A$m)
EV
(A$m)
EV/EBITDA
Ore
Reserve
(mt Cu)
EV/Ore
Reserve
(US¢/lb)
Project
C1 Costs
(US$/lb)
C3 Costs
(US$/lb)
ABY Aditya Birla Minerals 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.38 ▲ 2.6% 124 100 24 0.5x 0.473 2 Nifty 2.32 N/A
AOH Altona Mining 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.12 ▼ -3.0% 74 23 73 NM 0.061 49 Kylylahti 1.30 2.31
DML Discovery Metals 0.15 0.17 0.21 0.14 ▲ 22.1% 83 17 245 NM 0.403 25 Boseto N/A N/A
HGO Hillgrove Resources 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.06 ▲ 12.7% 71 17 104 4.9x 0.125 34 Kanmantoo 3.15 4.42
IVA Inova Resources 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.19 ▼ -1.7% 143 38 106 NM 0.080 54 Osborne 2.85 4.27
OZL OZ Minerals 3.95 4.15 4.22 3.84 ▲ 4.2% 1258 659 599 1.9x 0.748 33 Prominent Hill 1.85 3.23
PNA PanAust 1.83 1.99 2.07 1.73 ▲ 5.8% 1207 104 1262 4.2x 1.127 46 Phu Kham 1.28 1.98
SFR Sandfire Resources 5.50 5.95 6.30 5.45 ▲ 5.3% 926 110 1194 6.9x 0.466 105 DeGrussa N/A N/A
SRQ Straits Resources 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 ▼ -5.5% 14 57 65 5.0x 0.178 15 Tritton 2.37 2.38
TGS Tiger Resources 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.17 ▲ 6.1% 135 19 122 3.1x 0.303 16 Kipoi 1.07 1.35
Ticker Company Name
Open
Price
Close
Price
High
Price
Low
Price
Market Cap
(A$m)
52 Week
Range
Cash
(A$m)
EV
(A$m)
Mineral
Resource
(mt Cu)
EV/Mineral
Resource
(US¢/lb)
Project
C1 Costs
(US$/lb)
Capex
(US$m)
AVI Avalon Minerals 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 ▲ 6.1% 8 2 2 0.610 0.1 Viscaria 0.65 130
AVB Avanco Resources 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06 ▲ 46.3% 70 7 53 0.762 2.8 Antas/Pedra Blanca 1.10 50
BTR Blackthorn Resources 0.24 0.22 0.24 0.22 ▼ -5.7% 35 29 7 1.000 0.3 Mumbwa 1.49 377
FND Finders Resources 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.18 ▼ -14.7% 78 3 68 0.209 13 Wetar 1.07 167
HAV Havilah Resources 0.28 0.31 0.33 0.27 ▲ 8.8% 37 7 23 0.623 1.5 Kalkaroo N/A 80
HCH Hot Chili 0.42 0.42 0.45 0.41 ▲ 26.9% 128 25 117 0.920 5.2 Productora 1.35 600
MMC Marengo Mining 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02 ▼ -10.1% 24 6 77 0.806 3.9 Yandera n/a 1800
MNC Metminco 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 ▼ -23.7% 28 15 15 6.538 0.1 Los Calatos 1.09 1500
RXM Rex Minerals 0.46 0.45 0.55 0.45 ▲ 16.0% 85 34 26 2.000 0.5 Hillside 1.20 900
ROL Robust Resources 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.20 ▼ -2.4% 24 23 -2 0.077 -1.2 Andash N/A 96
YTC YTC Resources 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.17 ▲ 11.2% 53 5 48 0.091 22 Nymagee N/A N/A
Weekly
Change
3. 15th July 2013 WWW.LCC.ASIA
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be
accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee
or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is
made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied
upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made.
WEEKLYAustralianCopperGoldReport
Page
3/4
ASX Company News
Finders Resources (ASX: FND) has been awarded the final forestry permit (“Pinjam Pakai”). The forestry permit is the final
permit required to complete project financing and commence project development. In preparation for development, FND intends
to restart its demonstration plant in order to generate early cash flow and revise capital and operating cost estimates for a
refreshed Feasibility Study required to update bank credit approvals.
Despite using a higher grade cut-off (0.5% Cu vs. 0.3% previously), Tiger Resources (ASX: TGS) has increased the mineral
resources at its 100% owned Sase Central deposit: indicated resources amount 9.6mt @ 1.39% Cu for 134,000 t of copper, an
increase of +174% compared to the previous estimate dated March 2011. Combined indicated and inferred resources amount
168,000 t copper. The resource is classified under JORC 2012.
Hot Chili (ASX: HCH) has raised A$11.7 million @ $0.45 to continue the development of its flagship Productora project in Chile.
The placement received strong support from HCH project partner, CAP. CAP is the parent company of Compañia Minera del
Pacifico, Chile’s largest iron ore producer and integrated steel business.
Havilah Resources (ASX: HAV) has signed an agreement to purchase the 48-room White Dam mining camp for its planned
Portia gold mine, located about 80km away. The permitting of the mine continues to satisfy the Environmental Protection
Authority. The final outstanding task is to confirm that the de-watering water produced during mining operations can be
successfully re-injected into the nearby paleochannel.
Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) produced record production of 88,614oz for FY2013, +32% yoy. From a revenue of $144m
(+45% yoy), NST expects a FY2013 NPAT of $27m vs. $22m for the previous financial year. NST has also decided to delay its
Ashburton project but will continue to meet minimum expenditure commitments.
Saracen Mineral Holdings (ASX: SAR) produced 136,168oz for FY2013, +17% yoy. The Red October underground mine has
started to reach full production. June ore production from Red October was 11,396t @ 12.72g/t for 4,661oz of gold.
Following poor mine to mill metal reconciliation, Reed Resources (ASX: RDR) has tightened ore block interpretations to increase
the feed grade to its Meekatharra gold processing plant. Cash costs are reaffirmed at A$1,000/oz.
Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS) produced a record amount of gold from the Mt Magnet project with 17,100oz produced during
the June 2013 quarter, +18% qoq. Ore from Wattle Dam remnants and third party produced 1,900oz for the same period.
KalNorth Gold Mines (ASX: KGM) plans to suspend mining activities at its Lindsay project in WA. In addition, further cost
reductions are being sought to preserve cash, maintain tenements in good standing, provide for a modest exploration effort and
wait for a more favourable gold price environment.
Mergers & Acquisitions
Kentor Gold (ASX: KGL) announced that the creditors of its subsidiary Kentor Minerals (WA) have accepted a Deed of Company
Arrangement (DOCA) whereby KGL agrees to pay A$3m into a DOCA fund for the benefit of the subsidiary. The DOCA is
subject to the completion of the Andash project sale to Robust Resources (ASX: ROL), which in turn is reliant on shareholder
approval at the company’s AGM scheduled for 8th August 2013.
Emerging Gold Companies
Source: Capital IQ, LCC research. C1 costs and capex as estimated and announced by the respective companies.
Note: * Original cost in A$ converted to US$ using an exchange rate of 0.90.
Ticker Company Name
Open
Price
Close
Price
High
Price
Low
Price
Weekly
Change
Market
Cap (A$m)
52
Week
Range
Cash
(A$m)
EV
(A$m)
Reserves
(moz)
EV/Reserves
(US$/oz)
Project Name
C1 Costs
(US$/oz)
Capex
(US$m)
AZM Azumah Resources 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 ▲ 1.9% 10 3 7 0.4 14 Wa 802 144
BAB Bullabulling Gold 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 ▼ -7.1% NM 2 2 2.4 1 Bullabulling 1145 294*
CAS Crusader Resources 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.24 ▼ -1.9% 30 1 29 1.6 16 Borborema 558 169
DRM Doray Minerals 0.46 0.50 0.52 0.46 ▲ 8.6% 71 32 39 0.3 141 Andy Well 592 53*
GRY Gryphon Minerals 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.12 ▲ 0.6% 54 62 -8 1.1 -7 Banfora 774 208
KGD Kula Gold 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 ▲ 3.4% 11 5 6 0.8 7 Woodlark Island 730 160
MUM Mount Magnet South 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 ▼ -17.3% 8 2 6 0.3 21 Kirkalcka 1142 33*
PGI PanTerra Gold 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 ▲ 5.9% 61 2 59 0.6 84 Las Lagunas 307 83
PIR Papillon Resources 0.81 0.85 0.88 0.75 ▲ 2.5% 287 62 225 3.0 68 Fekola 580 292
4. 15th July 2013 WWW.LCC.ASIA
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be
accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee
or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is
made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied
upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made.
WEEKLYAustralianCopperGoldReport
Page
4/4
Gold Producers
Source: Capital IQ, Goldnerds, LCC research. Assumption: A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.90.
Note: * These stocks are not primarily listed on the ASX. Prices, market cap and multiples are based on their primarily listed market quote.
Ticker Company Name
Open
Price
Close
Price
High
Price
Low
Price
Weekly
Change
Market
Cap (A$m)
52 Week
Range
Cash
(A$m)
Debt
(A$m)
EV
(A$m)
EV/EBITDA
Ore Reserve
(moz)
EV/Reserve
(US$/oz)
C1 Costs
(US$/oz)
C3 Costs
(US$/oz)
ANG* AngloGold Ashanti 14.13 14.09 14.70 13.61 ▲ 1.6% 5413 653 3368 8128 4.2x 75.6 97 894 1147
ASR* Alacer Gold Corp 2.47 2.68 2.77 2.34 ▲ 8.2% 770 245 63 588 2.2x 5.0 106 932 N/A
BEZ* Besra Gold 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 ▼ -6.9% 18 4 43 57 2.4x 0.1 472 883 1330
CCU Cobar Consolidated Resources 0.10 0.14 0.15 0.10 ▲ 39.1% 46 10 18 54 N/M 0.4 114 N/A N/A
EVN Evolution Mining 0.58 0.69 0.70 0.53 ▲ 16.2% 485 49 84 520 1.9x 3.4 137 826 1284
EDV* Endeavour Mining Corp 0.52 0.57 0.62 0.50 ▲ 10.4% 237 82 195 350 3.1x 2.6 122 899 N/A
FML Focus Minerals 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 ▲ 0.5% 128 208 11 -69 N/M 0.5 -121 1704 1776
GDO Gold One International 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 ▼ -12.5% 149 37 218 330 7.4x 2.7 111 1047 1246
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated 1.38 1.59 1.66 1.25 ▲ 14.5% 242 42 173 374 2.5x 2.7 126 1051 N/A
KRM Kingsrose Mining 0.50 0.47 0.51 0.45 ▼ -5.2% 136 9 6 134 5.9x 0.0 NM 1029 N/A
LSA Lachlan Star 0.11 0.16 0.16 0.11 ▲ 32.6% 15 3 26 38 N/M 0.1 254 1239 N/A
MML Medusa Mining 1.77 1.80 1.85 1.34 ▲ 1.5% 339 9 0 331 5.3x 0.6 524 296 N/A
MOY Millennium Minerals 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 ▲ 1.6% 61 3 54 113 N/M 0.7 150 743 1025
NCM Newcrest Mining 10.35 12.09 12.12 9.51 ▲ 13.3% 9264 97 3203 12370 6.8x 85.7 130 719 977
NGF Norton Gold Fields 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.13 ▲ 0.1% 112 56 45 101 1.5x 1.1 81 930 1154
NST Northern Star Resources 0.63 0.73 0.74 0.59 ▲ 13.6% 310 51 12 271 4.7x 0.3 948 581 780
OGC* OceanaGold Corporation 1.30 1.52 1.58 1.22 ▲ 16.2% 445 26 240 659 3.8x 2.9 204 687 1117
PRU Perseus Mining 0.53 0.68 0.68 0.47 ▲ 23.5% 311 38 0 273 2.3x 3.6 68 863 1132
RDR Reed Resources 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.03 ▲ 20.6% 19 19 0 0 1.4x 0.8 0 900 N/A
RED Red 5 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.60 -- 0.0% 84 15 23 93 N/M 0.8 111 973 1333
RMS Ramelius Resources 0.12 0.14 0.14 0.11 ▲ 20.3% 47 37 4 14 0.2x 0.7 17 968 N/A
RRL Regis Resources 3.31 3.56 3.68 2.94 ▲ 6.0% 1759 8 0 1751 10.7x 0.6 2765 524 N/A
RSG Resolute Mining 0.58 0.63 0.70 0.53 ▲ 7.5% 419 16 16 419 1.4x 3.0 124 748 963
SAR Saracen Mineral Holdings 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.10 ▼ -2.6% 71 13 15 73 1.8x 4.4 15 892 N/A
SBM St Barbara 0.51 0.56 0.61 0.46 ▲ 12.0% 273 66 217 424 1.9x 1.1 348 929 1051
SLR Silver Lake Resources 0.65 0.78 0.81 0.60 ▲ 17.4% 296 21 11 286 4.7x 5.7 45 657 1199
TAM Tanami Gold 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 ▼ -2.1% 35 1 44 79 35.6x 1.8 40 1750 1793
TBR Tribune Resources 1.39 1.60 1.65 1.39 ▲ 14.5% 81 9 14 86 1.7x 0.4 192 N/A N/A
TGZ* Teranga Gold Corp 0.59 0.64 0.67 0.57 ▲ 7.2% 156 49 76 184 0.8x 0.2 719 535 N/A
TRY Troy Resources 1.55 1.62 1.72 1.39 ▲ 4.7% 254 41 0 213 2.3x 1.4 134 773 N/A
UML Unity Mining 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 ▼ -1.4% 49 36 2 14 1.5x 0.6 20 830 N/A