Lincoln Crowne & Company Gold & Copper Market Update for the Australian market for week ended 29th November 2013

1. WEEKLY
Australian Copper Gold Report
2nd December 2013
WWW.LCC.ASIA
Official Copper Inventories Drop Below 500,000 t
Global Economy Fundamentals
Last Close
Price
Precious Metals & Energy
Gold
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Crude Oil
Gas H.Hub
Uranium
(A$/oz)
(US$/oz)
(US$/oz)
(US$/oz)
(US$/oz)
(US$/barrel)
1,371
1,251
20.0
1,359
716
93
3.78
36
(US$/m btu)
(US$/lb)
YTD
Change
▼
▼
▼
▼
▲
▲
▲
▼
Last Close
Price
Currencies & Indices
AUD/USD
RMB/USD
CAD/USD
ZAR/USD
ASX Ordinary Gold
TSX Global Gold
ASX 300 Metals & Mining
TSX Global Mining
0.913
0.164
0.944
0.098
1,849
162
3,266
71
-15%
-25%
-34%
-12%
2%
1%
12%
-16%
4-Week
Change
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
▲
▲
YTD
Change
▼
▲
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
-12%
2%
-6%
-17%
-62%
-47%
-10%
-26%
-1%
-5%
-9%
-6%
-3%
-2%
5%
5%
Week
Change
▲
▲
▲
▼
▲
▼
▼
▼
▼
▲
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
-3%
0%
-1%
0%
-20%
-6%
-1%
-4%
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
▲
▼
▼
0.9%
0.6%
0.6%
-1.7%
0.3%
-2.2%
-0.8%
-0.7%
Copper
Copper
Cobalt
Molybdenum
Nickel
Lead
Zinc
Tin
Week
Change
4-Week
Change
Global Markets
-0.4%
0.0%
-0.6%
-0.8%
-6.3%
0.4%
-1.3%
-0.4%
Volume ('000 t)
Price (A$/lb)
Price (US$/lb)
300
US$/oz
3.60
3.40
Aug
Sep
Oct
1%
-12%
2%
-18%
-22%
-13%
-9%
-4%
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
YTD
Change
▲
▲
▲
▼
▲
▲
▲
▲
0%
-4%
-4%
-1%
-9%
-9%
-9%
-2%
Week
Change
▼
▼
—
—
▼
▼
▼
▼
4-Week
Change
14%
23%
27%
-2%
5%
51%
13%
17%
▼
▲
▲
▲
▲
▲
▼
▲
-2%
3%
3%
3%
3%
10%
-1%
1%
-0.7%
-1.1%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.3%
-2.0%
-1.3%
-1.3%
Week
Change
▼
▲
▲
▲
▲
▲
▼
▲
-0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
0.8%
1.8%
-0.4%
1.0%
3.80
3.60
400
3.20
3.00
3.40
200
0
Aug
Nov
S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index
(XGD)
4-Week
Change
LME Copper Price and Stocks
Stocks ('000 t)
Price (A$/lb)
Price (US$/lb)
600
0
1200
▲
▼
▲
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
5,320
16,086
1,806
2,221
23,881
15,662
6,651
3,087
100
1300
Sep
Oct
3.20
3.00
Aug
Nov
COMEX Copper Price and Volume
Sep
Oct
Nov
COMEX Copper Price and Stocks
2500
1500
Aug
Sep
Oct
0
Nov
Aug
Oct
3.40
20
3.20
0
100
80
Volume ('000 lot)
80
1250
Price (US$/lb)
4.30
Q1 11
Q3 11
Q1 12
Q3 12
Q1 13
Q3 13
3.90
20
Total Demand (tonnes)
Total Supply (tonnes)
3.70
0
3.50
$1,000
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
3.90
3.70
3.50
Sep
Oct
Nov
China Copper Imports
4.00
Tonnes ('000t)
Copper Price
400
3.80
300
$3.19
3.40
100
Buyer
3.60
200
Seller
$3.20
$500
$250
4.10
500
$3.21
$750
4.30
40
Aug
LME copper forward curve
Cash costs
4.50
Price (US$/lb)
0
$1,250
Total production costs
Nov
20
$3.22
2012 Gold Production Costs
Oct
Stocks ('000 t)
60
4.10
40
750
Sep
SHFE Copper Price and Stocks
60
1000
3.60
3.00
Aug
Nov
3.80
Stocks ('000 t)
Price (US$/lb)
SHFE Copper Price and Volume
World Gold Demand and Supply
1500
Sep
40
4.50
40
60
3.00
80
2000
3.60
Volume ('000 lot)
Price (US$/lb)
80
3.20
120
3.80
3.40
3000
500
3.47
3.17
11.79
9.66
6.02
0.93
0.84
10.25
3.80
200
1400
YTD
Change
Last Close
Price
ASX 200
Dow Jones
S&P 500 Index
Shang Hai Index
Hang Seng Index
Nikkei 225
FTSE 100 Index
Euro STOXX 50 Index
400
A$/oz
1500
(A$/lb)
(US$/lb)
(US$/lb)
(US$/lb)
(US$/lb)
(US$/lb)
(US$/lb)
(US$/lb)
LME Copper Price and Volume
Gold Price
1700
1600
Last Close
Price
Base Metals
3.20
$0
Latin
North
America America
Other
Australia
South
Africa
World
0
$3.18
Cash
3 Months
Dec 1
Dec 2
Dec 3
Apr 12
Oct 12
Apr 13
Oct 13
3.00
Source: Capital IQ, COMEX, LME, SHFE, Thomson Reuters, LCC research. Note: the SHFE copper price is based on the LME 3-month price and includes CIF premium, tax and duty
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from
sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such
information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no ob ligation
to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor
should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment
decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made
.
Page 1 / 4

2. WEEKLY
WWW.LCC.ASIA
Markets & Majors
Emerging Copper Producers
Total copper inventories (COMEX, LME plus SHFE) have
dropped below 500,000 tonnes last week and are currently
standing at about 480,000 tonnes, following a decline of 322,000
tonnes in five months. In comparison, copper surplus is
estimated at 182,000 tonnes this year and 328,000 tonnes next
year according to a recent Reuters poll. Current official
inventories represent less than 9 days of global consumption.
Codelco produced 1.18 million tonnes of copper in the Jan-Sep
period, a 0.3% decrease year-on-year due to lower ore grades,
harder rock and more complicated production in deeper deposits.
Codelco expects its full-year output to be in a similar range to last
year’s (1.647 mt), when production fell to its lowest level since
2008. Codelco profits before tax dived 61% to $2.67 billion due to
lower copper prices, higher sales costs and an unusually high
comparison base with last year.
The number of resources projects set for construction in Australia
has slipped to its lowest in nearly a decade as the end of the
resources boom curbs new investment in minerals and oil & gas.
Just five projects worth a combined A$1.7 billion were approved
for construction in the past six months, official figures showed
last week, the lowest by number and value for a six-month period
in more than a decade. "Lower commodity prices and rising costs
have created a more challenging investment environment and
contributed to a decline in the number of projects moving through
the investment pipeline," the Bureau of Resources and Energy
Economics (BREE) said in its half-yearly report. With regards to
the copper and gold sectors, LCC compiled the following.
12
12
Australian Projects
As at October 2013
10
10
Gold
Copper #
Gold #
8
8
6
6
Dargues Reef
Hera
Tomingley
4
Number of Projects
Development Capital ($ billion)
Copper
4
Andy Well
Tropicana
2
2
0
0
Publicly Announced
Feasibility Stage
Commi ed
Code
Company Name
Open
Price
Close
Price
AVI
AZS
BTR
CDU
HAV
HCH
HIG
IRN
KGL
MMC
MNC
RXM
VRX
VXR
YTC
AVB
FND
TGS
Avalon Minerals
Azure Minerals
Blackthorn Resources
Cudeco
Havilah Resources
Hot Chili
Highlands Pacific
Indophil Resources
KGL Resources
Marengo Mining
Metminco
Rex Minerals
Ventnor Resources
Venturex Resources
YTC Resources
Avanco Resources
Finders Resources
Tiger Resources
0.020
0.029
0.20
1.98
0.25
0.44
0.068
0.13
0.090
0.018
0.037
0.43
0.16
0.005
0.22
0.062
0.21
0.32
0.016
0.028
0.23
2.00
0.25
0.42
0.066
0.14
0.080
0.019
0.039
0.38
0.15
0.005
0.21
0.064
0.19
0.34
-20%
-3%
13%
1%
0%
-3%
-3%
8%
-11%
6%
5%
-12%
-6%
0%
-2%
3%
-10%
6%
19
20
37
410
30
146
56
162
11
22
68
72
11
8
56
87
97
263
2.6
1.1
20.6
34.0
4.6
12.8
6.5
217.8
10.6
8.1
9.4
19.9
0.1
3.7
14.7
2.2
10.6
10.6
EV
(A$m)
17
19
16
376
25
133
50
(55)
1
35
59
52
11
4
87
85
87
277
Mergers & Acquisitions
Teck Resources, Newmont Mining, private equity firm Blackstone
and a firm led by the former head of Barrick Gold are working
together on a bid for Glencore Xstrata's Las Bambas copper
mine in Peru, according to several people familiar with the matter.
China's Minmetals has so far been seen as the front-runner for
the US$5.9 billion project after Chinalco, the largest aluminium
producer in China, dropped out of the race. Chinalco is
considering an offer to team up as a minority partner with
Minmetals Group, who has offered Glencore roughly US$5 billion
for the copper mine. Las Bambas requires an estimated US$5.9
billion investment to be fully developed, but it is already 43%
completed and production at the mine is due to start in 2015. The
project is expected to produce more than 400,000 tonnes of
copper per year once in production, as well as significant
amounts of silver and gold. The next round of bids for Las
Bambas is due this month, according to several sources.
Latin Resources (ASX: LRS) has sold 70% of its Ilo Norte copper
gold project to Compañia Minera Zahena (CMZ) for a total
consideration of US$3.65 million cash and exploration work
commitments totalling US$4 million plus the immediate execution
of a 4800m diamond drilling program valued at US$1.35 million.
Copper Producers
10
Code
Company Name
ABY
AOH
DML
HGO
OZL
PEM
PNA
SFR
SRQ
TGS
Aditya Birla Minerals
Altona Mining
Discovery Metals
Hillgrove Resources
OZ Minerals
Perilya
PanAust
Sandfire Resources
Straits Resources
Tiger Resources
As at April 2013
10
Copper
Gold
Copper #
Open
Price
Close
Price
Weekly
Market 52 Week
Change Cap (A$m)
Range
Cash
EV
EV/
(A$m) (A$m) EBITDA
Gold #
8
Andy Well
Dargues Reef
Hera
Tomingley
Tropicana
KalNorth †
Meekatharra†
Mt Carlton
Murchison
4
6
4
Rocklands
Cloncurry
(Xstrata)
2
Number of Projects
8
2
▼
▼
▲
▲
—
▼
▼
▲
▼
▲
▲
▼
▼
—
▼
▲
▼
▲
Cash
(A$m)
Source: Capital IQ, ASX announcements, LCC research. A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.90
12
Australian Projects
6
Weekly
Market 52 Week
Change Cap (A$m)
Range
Completed
12
Development Capital ($ billion)
Australian Copper Gold Report
2nd December 2013
0.34
- ▼ -100%
0.15 0.15 —
0%
0.068 0.064 ▼
-6%
0.086 0.088 ▲
2%
3.32 3.07 ▼
-8%
0.34 0.35 ▲
1%
1.59 1.52 ▼
-4%
6.06 5.77 ▼
-5%
0.009 0.008 ▼ -11%
0.32 0.34 ▲
6%
107
77
36
104
930
265
906
898
9
263
102
26
23
17
433
92
96
101
29
11
5
74
184
136
498
382
993
1,067
102
277
0.1x
5.2x
NM
3.8x
3.9x
6.0x
3.3x
5.6x
NM
4.5x
Source: Capital IQ, ASX announcements, LCC research. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.90
0
0
Publicly Announced
Feasibility Stage
Commi ed
Completed
Source: BREE amended, LCC research
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from
sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such
information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no ob ligation
to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor
should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment
decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made
.
Page 2 / 4

3. WEEKLY
Australian Copper Gold Report
2nd December 2013
WWW.LCC.ASIA
Emerging Gold Producers
Code
Company Name
Open
Price
Close
Price
Weekly
Change
Market Cap
(A$m)
52 Week
Range
Cash
EV
(A$m) (A$m)
ABU
ALK
AZM
BAB
CHZ
CVG
CAS
GCY
GRY
IGO
IDC
IAU
KGD
MSR
MLX
MYG
OBS
PAN
ABM Resources
Alkane Resources
Azumah Resources
Bullabulling Gold
Chesser Resources
Convergent Minerals
Crusader Resources
Gascoyne Resources
Gryphon Minerals
Independence Group
Indochine Mining
Intrepid Mines
Kula Gold
Manas Resources
Metals X
Mutiny Gold
Orbis Gold
Panoramic Resources
0.024
0.37
0.025
0.043
0.13
0.015
0.32
0.16
0.13
3.29
0.057
0.28
0.10
0.031
0.17
0.035
0.30
0.24
0.025
0.35
0.029
0.042
0.13
0.013
0.29
0.16
0.13
2.95
0.052
0.27
0.10
0.031
0.18
0.034
0.25
0.24
4%
-7%
16%
-2%
-4%
-13%
-9%
0%
0%
-10%
-9%
-4%
4%
0%
9%
-3%
-17%
0%
82
129
10
14
27
4
37
25
52
688
54
147
13
9
298
18
55
71
2.8
72.7
3.1
5.3
2.2
0.5
3.0
2.1
46.8
43.8
0.4
92.0
1.7
3.0
59.7
2.0
8.2
45.0
79
56
7
9
25
4
39
23
5
710
54
55
11
6
238
22
53
26
PIR
PVM
PXG
RED
RNI
ROL
SIH
SXG
SUM
YTC
Papillon Resources
PMI Gold
Phoenix Gold
Red 5
Resource & Investment
Robust Resources
Sihayo Gold
Southern Cross Goldfields
Sumatra Copper & Gold
YTC Resources
1.10
0.26
0.17
0.069
0.056
0.36
0.033
0.013
0.10
0.22
0.95
0.28
0.17
0.085
0.051
0.36
0.030
0.015
0.08
0.21
-14%
8%
0%
23%
-9%
0%
-9%
15%
-24%
-5%
321
116
40
65
15
37
27
13
31
56
46.1
100.5
10.7
4.5
3.9
7.1
0.1
5.1
9.4
14.7
275
15
29
60
24
36
27
15
22
87
Source: Capital IQ, LCC research. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.90 and A$/C$ of 1.00
ASX-listed Company News
OZ Minerals (ASX: OZL) increased the mineral resources for the
Carrapateena project to 800 mt (+5%) at 0.8% copper and 0.3 g/t
gold for 6.3 mt copper (+7%) and 8.4 moz of gold (+14%). The
deposit also contains some silver and uranium. OZL confirmed
that Carrapateena is Australia’s largest undeveloped copper
project. The deposit starts at 470m below surface.
Tiger Resources (ASX: TGS) announced a maiden inferred
mineral resource at the Judeira deposit, which is within the
existing Kipoi copper project mining lease area in the Democratic
Republic of Congo. The inferred resource estimate amounts
6.1mt at 1.2% Cu containing 71,000 tonnes. This material can
potentially be processed at the Kipoi Stage 2 solvent-extraction
and electro-winning (SX-EW) plant, 6 km from Judeira.
Emmerson Resources (ASX: ERM) has added 99,000 oz gold
(170,000 t at 17.4 g/t) from Chariot taking the total mineral
resource to 6.79 mt at 3.6 g/t gold equivalent for 900,000 gold
equivalent (246,000 oz gold and 122,100 t copper).
Resource & Investment (ASX: RNI) has updated its ore reserves
at the Grosvenor gold project in WA to 8.79 mt at a feed grade of
1.85 g/t for 523,000 oz gold.
Unity Mining (ASX: UML) announced a temporary halt to
development of its Dargues gold project in NSW pending
completion of technical optimisation studies and funding
discussions. At Dargues, construction of the 3.2 km access road
and infrastructure earthworks have been completed, with final
excavation and ground support of the box cut to be completed
before year end in readiness for commencement of underground
mining. The mandate with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia
to provide project finance remains in place and formal credit
approval is expected in early 2014.
Gold Producers
Code
Company Name
Open
Price
Close
Price
AQG
AGD
BDR
BEZ
CTO
CRK
DRM
DRA
EVN
EVR
FML
GDO
KCN
KRM
LSA
MML
MLX
MOY
MLI
NCM
NGF
NST
OGC
PNA
PGI
PRU
PPM
RMS
RRL
RSG
SAR
SBM
SLR
TBR
TGZ
TRY
UML
VGO
Alacer Gold
Austral Gold
Beadell Resources
Besra Gold
Citigold Corporation
Crocodile Gold Corp
Doray Minerals
Dragon Mining
Evolution Mining
Endeavour Mining Corp
Focus Minerals
Gold One International
Kingsgate Consolidated
Kingsrose Mining
Lachlan Star
Medusa Mining
Metals X
Millennium Minerals
Mintails
Newcrest Mining
Norton Gold Fields
Northern Star Resources
OceanaGold Corporation
PanAust
PanTerra Gold
Perseus Mining
Primero Mining Corp
Ramelius Resources
Regis Resources
Resolute Mining
Saracen Mineral Holdings
St Barbara
Silver Lake Resources
Tribune Resources
Teranga Gold Corp
Troy Resources
Unity Mining
Vantage Goldfields
2.12
0.12
0.83
0.026
0.042
0.12
0.63
0.18
0.65
0.62
0.012
0.14
1.21
0.38
1.69
0.17
0.20
0.08
8.47
0.13
0.68
1.73
1.59
0.047
0.30
5.60
0.11
3.08
0.51
0.22
0.29
0.57
2.89
0.56
1.10
0.050
0.045
2.08
0.12
0.76
0.024
0.044
0.11
0.64
0.19
0.61
0.56
0.012
0.17
1.04
0.39
0.20
1.69
0.18
0.18
0.053
7.69
0.13
0.68
1.80
1.52
0.045
0.28
5.65
0.10
3.00
0.50
0.20
0.28
0.47
2.43
0.46
1.00
0.050
0.045
Weekly
Change
▼
—
▼
▼
▲
▼
▲
▲
▼
▼
—
▲
▼
▲
—
—
▲
▼
▼
▼
—
—
▲
▼
▼
▼
▲
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
—
—
-2%
0%
-8%
-8%
5%
-9%
1%
6%
-6%
-9%
0%
21%
-14%
4%
0%
0%
9%
-10%
-29%
-9%
0%
0%
4%
-4%
-4%
-5%
1%
-9%
-3%
-2%
-7%
-2%
-18%
-16%
-18%
-10%
0%
0%
Market
Cap
(A$m)
611
20
601
13
60
43
90
17
429
236
110
242
158
131
29
351
298
39
8
5,888
121
291
538
906
35
128
641
36
1,494
320
119
137
203
122
154
167
35
11
52 Week
Range
Cash
(A$m)
EV
EV/
(A$m) EBITDA
247
364
13
69
35
667
2
69
1
58
28
21
18
127
4
13
4
552
119
416
90
36
32
452
44
308
8
123
3
52
7
352
60
238
10
71
0
10
69 10,029
42
194
48
255
16
781
96
993
6
79
27
101
126
550
33
7
93 1,401
59
355
25
116
106
362
26
198
8
134
36
198
27
146
20
15
1
10
1.6x
7.3x
64.2x
19.6x
NM
0.2x
NM
50.9x
2.7x
NM
NM
6.0x
2.9x
NM
NM
4.9x
25.8x
2.5x
NM
8.8x
7.4x
3.4x
3.3x
3.3x
NM
2.2x
NM
0.2x
5.9x
1.8x
2.1x
NM
NM
1.9x
NM
2.3x
1.1x
3.5x
Source: Capital IQ, LCC research. Assumption: A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.90. June quarter
data in italics, September quarter data in regular font
Newcrest Mining (ASX: NCM) shares have fallen below the mark
they crashed to when the company announced it would need to
take up to A$6 billion in asset write-downs and is now trading at
a 10-year low. The stock closed on Friday at A$8.47, valuing
Newcrest at just A$5.9 billion. In November 2010, just after the
A$10 billion acquisition of Lihir Gold had been completed, the
company was worth more than A$30 billion.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from
sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such
information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no ob ligation
to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor
should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment
decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made
.
Page 3 / 4

4. WEEKLY
WWW.LCC.ASIA
Australian Gold Producers Cost Curve
as at 30 September 2013
600
2000
Production
Price Average
AISC / C3 costs
C1 costs
500
Third Quartile
C1 < US$1041/oz
1750
Second Quartile
C1 < US$848/oz
1500
1250
First Quartile
C1 < US$612/oz
Mines closed
300
1000
750
200
500
100
FML
KRM
MLI
PGI
MLX
NCM - Bonikro
PRU
RMS
LSA
NCM - Hidden
SLR
TBR
SBM
GDO
712
KCN
VGO
NEM - Boddington
BEZ
DRA
UML
NGF
CRK
RSG
ABX - Plutonic
MOY
NCM - Telfer
779
EVR
NCM - Lihir
TGZ
GFI - St Ives
TRY
EVN
RRL
NCM - Gosowong
696
PNA
Kalgoorlie
SAR
ABX - Kanowna
NST
ABX - Yilgarn S
CTO
GFI - Agnew
AGD
BDR
DRM
AQG
ABX - Cowal
MML
NCM - Cadia
0
PPM
617
250
OGC
Annualised Gold Production (koz)
400
C1 Cost US$/oz
Australian Copper Gold Report
2nd December 2013
0
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from
sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such
information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no ob ligation
to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor
should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment
decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made
.
Page 4 / 4