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1
Understanding Incentives for
Livestock Biosecurity
Investments & Efforts
Closing General Session
Glynn Tonsor
Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University
April 6, 2016
This material is based upon work that is supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under award number 2015-69004-23273. Any opinions, findings,
conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Does Partial Biosecurity Reflect
Producer Knowledge Gaps?
• Perhaps,
Ongoing education can help
5
Does Partial Biosecurity Reflect
Producer Knowledge Gaps?
• Perhaps,
• but we must consider economic incentives
effectiveness & practicality
private-public distinctions
absolute vs. relative value
producer’s expectations
role of globalization
6
Does Partial Biosecurity Reflect
Producer Knowledge Gaps?
•Perhaps,
• but we must consider economic incentives
 effectiveness & practicality
 private-public distinctions
 absolute vs. relative value
 producer’s expectations
 role of globalization
Bottom-line: lack of knowledge is likely NOT
sole reason for partial implementation of
recommended biosecurity measures
7
Perspective on Economics
• Science of decision-making and allocation of
limited resources
• Centers on trade-offs and incentives for action
8
Broader Perspective on Animal
Health/Disease Risk
• Key biological processes underlie risk.
– Clearly a role for epidemiologists, veterinarians, etc.
9
Broader Perspective on Animal
Health/Disease Risk
• Key biological processes underlie risk.
– Clearly a role for epidemiologists, veterinarians, etc.
• Human activities also endogenously impact risk
& ultimate impacts of adverse events
10
Effectiveness & Feasibility
• Why create something with low odds of
adoption?
– How would investors on Shark Tank react?
11
Effectiveness & Feasibility
• Why create something with limited odds of adoption?
– How would investors on Shark Tank react?
• Just because a biosecurity measure “works”
doesn’t mean it will be 100% implemented
– Feasibility, effectiveness, & net econ. value are key
•E.coli vaccines for fed cattle are prime example
12
Private-Public Considerations
• Private decision
– Invest where MY benefits > MY costs
• May partially capture impact on neighbors, broader
industry, etc.
• Public decision
– Take action so SOCIAL benefits > SOCIAL costs
14
Private-Public Considerations
• Private decision
– Invest where MY benefits > MY costs
• Public decision
– Take action so SOCIAL benefits > SOCIAL costs
•Consider ind. animal ID in beef cattle industry
– Pendell et al. 2013 (Food Policy)
» Small + in exports (~S. Korea) offsets costs of full, national Age &
Source Verification program
» Yet a segment of producers would be better w/o ASV & losing
market access
15
Private-Public Considerations
• Private decision
– Invest where MY benefits = MY costs
• Public decision
– Take action so SOCIAL benefits = SOCIAL costs
•Consider ind. animal ID in beef cattle industry
– Pendell et al. 2013 (Food Policy)
» Small + in exports (~S. Korea) offsets costs of ASV
» Segment of producers would be better w/o ASV & losing mkt access
– What is socially optimal is not necessarily
optimal for every individual!
16
Incentive Compatibility
•USDA APHIS – HPAI Indemnity Claims
– Proposed move to make payment eligibility tied to
having a biosecurity plan in place
•Producers currently have limited incentive to
fully & quickly share information externally
18
Absolute vs. Relative Assessment
• We often conduct benefit-cost assessments of
single biosecurity measures in isolation.
– “If positive should implement”
• In reality, the relative merit ACROSS available
biosecurity measures is key.
– Consider case of 2 measures with returns on
investment of 15% and 5%
19
Reference Points in
Producer Decisions?
• What level of risk do producers expect and
manage around?
– If near 0%, we are frustrated by “irrational behavior”
of partial biosecurity
– If different threshold is used (e.g. 1 event/20 yrs),
this reference point is central to producer decisions
20
Globalization’s Role
• Expanding trade can increase:
Volume and Potential for adverse events
Economic impact when adverse event occurs
21
Globalization’s Role
• Expanding trade can increase
– Volume and Potential for adverse events
– Economic impact when adverse event occurs
“9 billion in 2050” + U.S. Comparative
Advantages + Growing role of trade =
interest and need to better understand
economics of biosecurity efforts
22
Preliminary Expert Survey Findings
• Relative Benefit-Costs Differences
24
N=86 (35 beef, 34 dairy, 17 swine) as of 4/1/16
Industry Sectors Benefits Costs Difference
Retailers 21.0 9.1 11.9
Processors 26.9 18.4 8.5
Dairy Producers 52.1 72.6 -20.4
Retailers 16.6 5.6 11.0
Processors 20.9 9.7 11.2
Feedlot 28.0 30.8 -2.8
Stocker/Backgrounder 16.3 22.3 -5.9
CowCalf 18.1 31.6 -13.5
Retailers 12.2 2.6 9.5
Processors 17.4 8.1 9.2
Finishing 21.6 25.1 -3.5
Nursery 14.9 23.6 -8.6
Sow-Breeding 33.9 40.6 -6.6
DairyBeefSwine
More information available at:
This presentation will be available in PDF format at:
http://www.agmanager.info/about/contributors/individual/tonsor.asp
25
www.agmanager.info
Glynn Tonsor
Associate Professor
Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
Email: gtonsor@ksu.edu
Twitter: @TonsorGlynn
www.agmanager.info
Utilize a Wealth of Information Available at
AgManager.info
http://www.AgManager.info/Evaluation/Email.htm
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Dr. Glynn Tonsor - Understanding Incentives for Livestock Biosecurity Investments & Efforts

  • 1. 1 Understanding Incentives for Livestock Biosecurity Investments & Efforts Closing General Session Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University April 6, 2016 This material is based upon work that is supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under award number 2015-69004-23273. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
  • 2. Does Partial Biosecurity Reflect Producer Knowledge Gaps? • Perhaps, Ongoing education can help 5
  • 3. Does Partial Biosecurity Reflect Producer Knowledge Gaps? • Perhaps, • but we must consider economic incentives effectiveness & practicality private-public distinctions absolute vs. relative value producer’s expectations role of globalization 6
  • 4. Does Partial Biosecurity Reflect Producer Knowledge Gaps? •Perhaps, • but we must consider economic incentives  effectiveness & practicality  private-public distinctions  absolute vs. relative value  producer’s expectations  role of globalization Bottom-line: lack of knowledge is likely NOT sole reason for partial implementation of recommended biosecurity measures 7
  • 5. Perspective on Economics • Science of decision-making and allocation of limited resources • Centers on trade-offs and incentives for action 8
  • 6. Broader Perspective on Animal Health/Disease Risk • Key biological processes underlie risk. – Clearly a role for epidemiologists, veterinarians, etc. 9
  • 7. Broader Perspective on Animal Health/Disease Risk • Key biological processes underlie risk. – Clearly a role for epidemiologists, veterinarians, etc. • Human activities also endogenously impact risk & ultimate impacts of adverse events 10
  • 8. Effectiveness & Feasibility • Why create something with low odds of adoption? – How would investors on Shark Tank react? 11
  • 9. Effectiveness & Feasibility • Why create something with limited odds of adoption? – How would investors on Shark Tank react? • Just because a biosecurity measure “works” doesn’t mean it will be 100% implemented – Feasibility, effectiveness, & net econ. value are key •E.coli vaccines for fed cattle are prime example 12
  • 10. Private-Public Considerations • Private decision – Invest where MY benefits > MY costs • May partially capture impact on neighbors, broader industry, etc. • Public decision – Take action so SOCIAL benefits > SOCIAL costs 14
  • 11. Private-Public Considerations • Private decision – Invest where MY benefits > MY costs • Public decision – Take action so SOCIAL benefits > SOCIAL costs •Consider ind. animal ID in beef cattle industry – Pendell et al. 2013 (Food Policy) » Small + in exports (~S. Korea) offsets costs of full, national Age & Source Verification program » Yet a segment of producers would be better w/o ASV & losing market access 15
  • 12. Private-Public Considerations • Private decision – Invest where MY benefits = MY costs • Public decision – Take action so SOCIAL benefits = SOCIAL costs •Consider ind. animal ID in beef cattle industry – Pendell et al. 2013 (Food Policy) » Small + in exports (~S. Korea) offsets costs of ASV » Segment of producers would be better w/o ASV & losing mkt access – What is socially optimal is not necessarily optimal for every individual! 16
  • 13. Incentive Compatibility •USDA APHIS – HPAI Indemnity Claims – Proposed move to make payment eligibility tied to having a biosecurity plan in place •Producers currently have limited incentive to fully & quickly share information externally 18
  • 14. Absolute vs. Relative Assessment • We often conduct benefit-cost assessments of single biosecurity measures in isolation. – “If positive should implement” • In reality, the relative merit ACROSS available biosecurity measures is key. – Consider case of 2 measures with returns on investment of 15% and 5% 19
  • 15. Reference Points in Producer Decisions? • What level of risk do producers expect and manage around? – If near 0%, we are frustrated by “irrational behavior” of partial biosecurity – If different threshold is used (e.g. 1 event/20 yrs), this reference point is central to producer decisions 20
  • 16. Globalization’s Role • Expanding trade can increase: Volume and Potential for adverse events Economic impact when adverse event occurs 21
  • 17. Globalization’s Role • Expanding trade can increase – Volume and Potential for adverse events – Economic impact when adverse event occurs “9 billion in 2050” + U.S. Comparative Advantages + Growing role of trade = interest and need to better understand economics of biosecurity efforts 22
  • 18. Preliminary Expert Survey Findings • Relative Benefit-Costs Differences 24 N=86 (35 beef, 34 dairy, 17 swine) as of 4/1/16 Industry Sectors Benefits Costs Difference Retailers 21.0 9.1 11.9 Processors 26.9 18.4 8.5 Dairy Producers 52.1 72.6 -20.4 Retailers 16.6 5.6 11.0 Processors 20.9 9.7 11.2 Feedlot 28.0 30.8 -2.8 Stocker/Backgrounder 16.3 22.3 -5.9 CowCalf 18.1 31.6 -13.5 Retailers 12.2 2.6 9.5 Processors 17.4 8.1 9.2 Finishing 21.6 25.1 -3.5 Nursery 14.9 23.6 -8.6 Sow-Breeding 33.9 40.6 -6.6 DairyBeefSwine
  • 19. More information available at: This presentation will be available in PDF format at: http://www.agmanager.info/about/contributors/individual/tonsor.asp 25 www.agmanager.info Glynn Tonsor Associate Professor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University Email: gtonsor@ksu.edu Twitter: @TonsorGlynn
  • 20. www.agmanager.info Utilize a Wealth of Information Available at AgManager.info