Planning climate adaptation in agriculture: Advances in research, policy and finance


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Presentations by speakers at the CCAFS' "Planning Climate Adaptation in Agriculture" Side Event during the UNFCCC SB 40 climate negotiations in Bonn. Speakers are: Gabrielle Kissinger, David Kaluba, David Howlett and Pradeep Kurukulasuriya.

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Planning climate adaptation in agriculture: Advances in research, policy and finance

  1. 1. Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans Gabrielle Kissinger, Lexeme Consulting Side-event: Planning climate adaptation in agriculture: Advances in research, policy and finance SBSTA 40 - Bonn Germany - 7 June 2014
  2. 2. Agricultural adaptation: Are countries ready? Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national
  3. 3. IPCC: Negative impacts of climate change on crop yields are more common than positive ones Source: IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers, 31 March 2014
  4. 4. IPCC: Summary of projected changes in crop yields due to climate change Note: Changes in crop yields are relative to late-20th-century levels Source: IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers, 31 March 2014 Climate adaptation and agriculture:
  5. 5. Growing demand and pressure on agriculture • US $70 billion to $100 billion a year is needed between 2010 and 2050 to adapt to a 2oC warmer world (World Bank, 2011) • US$83 - $90 billion annual agricultural investment gap in the agricultural sector of developing countries, to meet food security needs up to 2050 (FAO 2011, Global Harvest Initiative 2011)
  6. 6. How NAPs evolved • Established in 2010 (Cancún) by the UNFCCC. Purpose: Ø Facilitate effective medium- and long-term adaptation planning and implementation in developing countries, in particular LDCs (FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1) • Adaptation Committee est. under Cancun Adaptation Framework. Purpose: Ø Implement enhanced action on adaptation and facilitation of NAPs by non-LDC developing country Parties. Contributes to (not duplicate work of) the Least Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG) to support LDC national adaptation plan processes and the SBI on the work programme on loss and damage. • LEG Technical Guidelines for NAPs: released 2012.
  7. 7. NAPAs and NAPs COP 17 in Durban defined NAP process objectives (FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1): (a) “reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, by building adaptive capacity and resilience,” and (b) ” facilitate integration of climate change adaptation, in a coherent manner, into relevant new and existing policies, programmes and activities, in particular development planning processes and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at different levels, as appropriate”. …And recognised that adaptation planning will be “continuous, progressive and iterative.”
  8. 8. NAPAs and NAPs 2013. NAPAs and NAPS in Least Developed Countries. IIED LDC Paper Series. Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
  9. 9. Countries reviewed
  10. 10. 10 country workshop • 37 policy makers, 10 different countries • two-day workshop on November 13-14, 2013 at COP in Warsaw, Poland
  11. 11. NAP Dashboard Source: Planning climate adaptation in agriculture. CCAFS Report No. 10
  12. 12. Areas of concern: • Many countries lack consistent, comprehensive and coordinated approaches in their vulnerability and risk assessments (affects ranking) • Most of the countries conducted impact assessments—the foundation of the planning process—on a purely sectoral basis • Cross- or multisectoral analyses to prioritize adaptation actions can be useful, many countries have difficulties performing such strategic studies • Most did not assess the economic implications of climate risks, which compromises the design of adaptation strategies and measures: Ø Kenya: Annual cost of climate change impacts USD $1 to 3 billion/yr. by 2030. • Institutional frameworks and governance structures are lacking to effectively coordinate and implement adaptation activities, particularly cross-sectoral ones • Many adaptation and food security programs currently being implemented are not well integrated into a broader national strategy, and are often driven by bilateral and/or multilateral funding sources.
  13. 13. The adaptation finance gap
  14. 14. Identification of barriers and conflicts  basis for assessing future research and capacity needs: Workshop results: Barrier Frequency Lack of organization in access to finance 5 Lack of dedicated finance instruments for CC at national level 5 Insufficient consideration of climate issues in national policies and programmes 4 Unclear funding for implementation 3 Inadequate appreciation of investments in adaptation 3 Lack of long-series climate data 2 Lack of baseline data/information 2 High cost of international expertise, infrastructure and tools for climate research 2 Need for financial planning 2
  15. 15. Success in cross- or multisectoral planning: • Nepal (NAPA): “Thematic working groups” – Agriculture and Food Security, Forest and Biodiversity, Water Resources and Energy, Climate Induced Disasters, Public Health, Urban Settlements and Infrastructure. Stakeholder comprised, identified priority activities + combined project profiles. • Ghana: “Akropong Approach” – results in cross-sectoral project plan. Logical framework analysis + multi-criteria analysis to rank importance of activities. • Tanzania’s 2012 “Guidelines for Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into National Sectoral Policies, Plans and Programmes of Tanzania,” issued by the Vice President’s Office.
  16. 16. Design of institutional structures should consider who can have greatest influence in adaptation and NAP policy environment: • OECD experience: Success of adaptation plans and measures may be attributed more to their prominence in national-level priorities and commitment than where such plans sit in the organizational structure of government (Mullan et al. 2013) • Ethiopia: coordination of climate change activities was moved from the National Meteorological Agency to the Office of the Prime Minister • Kenya: the National Climate Change Framework Policy and a draft Bill being deliberated in Parliament envisions the National Climate Change Council (NCCC) being anchored in the Presidency, with the NCCC being chaired by the Deputy President. Necessary influence and leverage for NAPs:
  17. 17. Workshop: Most relevant actors and institutions to influence NAP policy environment
  18. 18. Recommendations • Bring local levels into planning and prioritization, where much climate adaptation implementation occurs. • Governance institutions need to be adaptive, in order to adjust response measures as new information on climate impacts develops over time. • Developing countries and LDCs need to strengthen capacity to identify and rank climate risks and prioritize response activities. • Identify sources of NAP implementation finance during the planning phase. – Implementation funding should be separate from NAP planning. – Devote some national budgetary allocations towards implementation (stronger commitment to outcomes and more effective for mainstreaming) • Increased capacity for integrated approaches to adaptation planning – Key for relationships and trade-offs between sectors + climate adaptation and mitigation synergies • Countries should widen stakeholder engagement in assessment, design, implementation and monitoring of adaptation plans, particularly the private
  19. 19. Thank you! Gabrielle Kissinger Principal, Lexeme Consulting
  20. 20. Planning Climate Adaptation in Agriculture UNFCCC SB 40 in Bonn, Germany By David C. Kaluba National Coordinator-Interim Secretariat Ministry of Finance –Zambia 2014 REPUBLICREPUBLIC OF ZAMBIAOF ZAMBIA
  21. 21. What are Development Priorities Strong Economic Growth… GNI per capita: US$1,280/year GDP Growth: 6.4% Population 13 million 61% rural Land: 750,000 km2 Two large river basins: Zambezi and Congo The name is derived from river Zambezi But Growth is Uneven… Poverty level in rural areas: 77% (59% at national level) UN HDI: 150 out of 169
  22. 22. Example 2. Identify Climate Change Risks on Development  Over past 30 years, floods and droughts have cost Zambia US$13.8 billion – equivalent to 0.4 % of annual GDP growth  In the absence of adaptation, rainfall variability could keep an additional 300,000 more Zambians below the poverty line  Climate variability could cost Zambia US$4.3 billion in lost GDP over the next decade, reducing annual growth by 0.9%
  23. 23. Impact on the Most Vulnerable Women-headed Households, the Elderly, Incapacitated, and those taking care of AIDS- orphans are most vulnerable. Single or divorced male-headed HHs are also highly vulnerable (due to malnutrition) When hit with floods or droughts, vulnerable HHs cope by reducing food or essential expenditures (health, education). They also increase their level of indebtness and rely further on casual labor – however, this is mostly food-for- works which is similarly impacted by the weather. Many traditional coping mechanisms (e.g. indigenous early warning, two house system) are no longer working due to weather unpredictability and changing economic conditions
  24. 24. Zambia: Major Exposure to Climate Droughts FloodsFood Needs Areas – 2005/06 Drought The Southern part of Zambia is generally considered to be the most vulnerable
  25. 25. Green Climate Fund- Readiness Project-based and programmatic approaches in accordance with climate change strategies and plans, such as low-emission development strategies or plans, nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs), national adaptation plans of action (NAPAs), national adaptation plans (NAPs) and other related activities NAPs as Readiness tool To reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, by building adaptive capacity and resilience; To facilitate the integration of climate change adaptation, in a coherent manner, into relevant new and existing policies, programmes and activities, in particular development planning processes and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at different levels, as appropriate
  26. 26. LINKAGES ARE IMPORTANT mainstream ed climate change into the most economically and vulnerable sectors of the economy in order to ensure sustainable economic development towards the attainment of Zambia’s Vision 2030 Mainstreaming strengthened country ownership and driveness Local level Integrated Development Plans crucial to adaptation among the most vulnerable – processes commenced
  27. 27. Zambia’s Climate Change Programme Institutional Arrangements Board(Ministries,House of Chiefs,CivilSociety,Private Sector, Academia) TechnicalCommittee Secretariat-CCFU Theme 2: Mitigation/Low Carbon Development e.g. CDM, UN- REDD Theme 1: Adaptation & Disaster Risk Reduction e.g. PPCR, NAPA Theme 3: Research & Development, Capacity Building e.g. ILUA, Technology Development Theme 4: Policy Development, Mainstreaming & Negotiations e.g. UNFCCC, CIFs Theme 5 Finance: Identification & Resource Mobilization e.g. Adaptation Fund, Carbon Tax & others Technical Committee Platforms: 1) ResilientAgriculture 2) ResilientInfrastructure Constituency: Implementing Ministries, Local Government, CommunityGroups, NGOs, Private Sector Community groups, NGOs Committee of Ministers FutureClimate ChangeCouncil TCPlatforms: 3) REDD TCPlatforms: 4) Climate Information TCPlatforms: 6) Managementand Finance TCPlatforms: 5) Others The main themes of the programme are supported by stakeholder platforms
  28. 28. 1. PARTICIPATORY ADAPTATION (Examples) Current Plans now include: 100% Government baseline Climate Resilient Plans would also include: + 30% increment Livestock and poultry rearing Climate resilient agriculture, livestock and fisheries Agriculture inputs Natural resources management Wells, water supply systems Water harvesting, flood control Education and health facilities Retrofitting/construction to climate resilient standards Feeder community roads Upgrading or retrofitting to climate resilient standards Community facilities Community preparedness This would promote community-driven, climate resilient development based on decentralized budget processes
  29. 29. Targeting Gender and Vulnerable Groups • As a condition for eligibility, at least 50% of the activities funded under climate resilient plans will be targeted to socially vulnerable groups – women-headed households, elderly, and the incapacitated. • This pre-targeting would be mapped through a Comprehensive Vulnerability Assessment and Analysis, as per standard guidelines of the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit • Youth groups would also be targeted due to their access to sub-standard land (typically away from irrigated areas) • In districts with active cash (child) transfers, the SPCR would link with the social protection program for complementary support (through social infrastructure, micro-credit, and assistance to producer groups)
  30. 30. For More Information, please contact or
  31. 31. Slide 1 Development partner perspective on agriculture and adaptation David Howlett UK Department for International Development (DFID)  7th June 2014, Bonn Women and children are often affected the most by climate
  32. 32. Slide 2 • Recognise the problem and challenges • Need to have evidence on what to invest in and policies to improve • Want to know if these are successful What is needed to adapt to a changing climate Three points
  33. 33. • Set up the International Climate Fund in 2011 • £3.83 bn over four years: – 50% on adaptation – 30% on low carbon development – 20% on forestry • Agriculture a priority Slide 3 What is UK doing? A changing climate will affect the poor the most
  34. 34. Slide 4 • Enhance farmers livelihoods • Produce the food farmers & consumers need • Improve people’s nutrition – especially that of women and children • Help farmers adapt and build resilience to current & future climate risks • Sustain the health of the land and increases its productivity • Avoid loss of forests & biodiversity • Sequester carbon in soil and reduce emissions of GHGs from agric. We want to: Irrigation helping Kenyan farmer increase her income
  35. 35. Slide 5 • £150m to IFAD’s Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme (ASAP) to benefit six million farmers, men and women and help build their resilience to climate change, and help improve their incomes. • £140m Building Resilience and Adapting to Climate Extremes and Disasters Programme (BRACED) to increase the resilience of over 5m people in the Sahel, other African countries and South Asia A Father and son escaping floods in Pakistan Two examples
  36. 36. Supporting   Climate  Change   Adaptation Pradeep  Kurukulasuriya   Head,  Climate  Change  Adaptation     UNDP-­‐GEF Laos/LDCF
  37. 37. Vanuatu/SCCF Niger/LDCF
  38. 38. Cambodia/LDCF Guatemala/SPA Vanuatu/SCCF Laos/SCCF
  39. 39. Our  Journey Adaptation  in   Practice Lessons   Learned The  Way   Forward
  40. 40. Empowering   Communities De-­‐risking   through  Public   Policy Nurturing  and   Promoting   Enterprise Empowering   Communities Lessons  Learned
  41. 41. Cambodia/LDCF Bhutan/LDCF Zimbabwe/SCCF Niger/LDCF Samoa/SCCF Rwanda/LDCF Bangladesh/LDCF Empowering  Communities
  42. 42. De-­‐risking   barriers Lessons  Learned
  43. 43. FS  Micronesia/SCCF Lesotho/NAP-­‐GSP Afghanistan/NAP-­‐GSPLesotho/NAP-­‐GSP De-­‐risking  through  Public  Policy
  44. 44. Bhutan/NAP-­‐GSP Zimbabwe/SCCF De-­‐risking  through  Public  Policy
  45. 45. Nurturing  and   Promoting   Enterprise Lessons  Learned
  46. 46. Namibia/SPA Nurturing  and  Promoting  Enterprise
  47. 47. Cambodia/LDCF Nurturing  and  Promoting  Enterprise
  48. 48. Our  Journey Adaptation  in   Practice Lessons   Learned The  Way   Forward
  49. 49. Integrated  Approaches Cambodia/LDCF Ethiopia/LDCF Samoa/LDCF Vietnam/LDCF The  Way  Forward
  50. 50. Evidence-­‐Based  Learning Samoa/SPA  Namibia/SPA   Bolivia/SPA   The  Way  Forward
  51. 51. (a) Enhance  the  capacity  of   policy  makers  to  identify   appropriate  mix  of  public   instruments  including  public   finance  to  catalyze  larger   private  investments ! (b) Create  an  enabling   environment  including   national/sub-­‐national/   sectoral  policy  frameworks,   domestic  technical  expertise,   financing  channels,  and   administrative  procedures ! (c) Attract  innovative  finance  to   provide  additional  financial   incentives (II)  to  identify  barriers  to  priority   investments (III)  identify  risks  generated  by  these   barriers  that  prevent  the  requisite   investment (IV)  what  are  the  de-­‐risking  instruments (V)  What  are  source  of  finance  to   support  de-­‐risking  strategy (I)    Assist  Governments  (e.g.  through   national  adaptation  plans)  to  identify   priorities  from  perspective  of:   (a)preserving  existing  infrastructure,   businesses  and  livelihoods;     (b)new  business  opportunities     (c)no  regret  options Theory  of  Change The  Way  Forward
  52. 52. Scaling    Up     Morocco/SPA   Niger/LDCF   The  Way  Forward
  53. 53. ! Transforming     1,800,000  million   lives  directly   !