Slides presented at SPNHC 2015.

1. Nico Franz - Arizona State University
Neil Cobb - Northern Arizona University
Katja Seltmann - American Museum of Natural History
With special thanks to Edward Gilbert (ASU) & Paul Heinrich (NAU)
The Current State of Arthropod Biodiversity Data:
Addressing Impacts of Global Change
30th Annual Meeting, SPNHC 2015
May 20th, 2015
Tri-Trophic Thematic Collection Network

2. The Current State of Arthropod Biodiversity Data:
Addressing Impacts of Global Change
 Focus on North America – priorities: United States > Canada > Mexico
 How many species can we model future distributions under climate change? (n > 30)
 Major taxonomic & functional groups
 Biogeography
 Collection timeline
 Digitization in North American research collections
 Promoting observable species (identification does not require dissection [etc.])
 Specimen estimates for North American research collections (current & projected)

3. Arthropods comprise ~ 70% of described species, yet only 15% of climate impact studies
Cannot predict global change impacts without knowing existing species distributions
~ 10% of North American arthropod species have “enough” occurrence data (n = 30 localities)
Arthropod occurrence data reside primarily in research collections
460-600 million specimens in collections worldwide?, < 50 million digitized (~ 10%)
Race Against Time: a Few Key Observations

4. Mean#ofOccurrences/Species
0.0
2.0e+4
4.0e+4
6.0e+4
8.0e+4
1.0e+5
1.2e+5
2,896
19,150
110,000100,000
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
0
#NorthAmericanSpecies
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3,081
391
42
Vertebrates Plants Arthropods
North American Biodiversity
North American Digitization
Biodiversity versus "Research Ready"
1. Arthropods are mega-diverse
2. Research-Ready ≥ 30 occurrences per species
 Vertebrates < Plants < Arthropods
 Vertebrates are excellent
 Plants are credible
 Arthropods are way behind
Occurrences are not evenly distributed
10% of arthropod species are research-ready

5. Understanding Climate Change Impacts
on Arthropod Ecological Niche Modeling
Promote Data
Acquisition
Understand
Mechanisms
Present
Goals
Way in the
Future Goals
Predict Species
Distributions for
Tens of Thousands
of Species
Near-Future
Goals
Model Cross-Trophic
Interactions

6. Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Species Distributions
BIOMOD2+ Modeling Workflow
 30-100 occurrence localities
 Distributed over entire range

7. North American Arthropod Collections
USA-Canada-Mexico
237 million specimens accounted for1
>17 million are not accounted for2
254 million Total specimens in NA collections
85 million Total North American specimens (?)
Key Estimates
Current Holdings
#Specimens(Millions)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Total NA
Specimens
NA
Specimens
digitized
6 million digitized North American specimens
1 87 collections 2 201 collections

8. 3.5 million new specimens per year
Annual Additions
#Specimens(Millions)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
NA
Specimens
digitized
to date
NA
Specimens
digitized
per year
NA
Specimens
collected
per year
Can we catch up?
6 million total specimens digitized
2 million total specimens digitized per year?
1.1 million new North American specimens per year
North American Arthropod Collections
USA-Canada-Mexico
Key Estimates

9. 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
100
200
300
400
Total specimens in NA collections
5-fold increase in rate of digitization
NA specimens in NA collections
Current rate of digitization
#ofdigitizedspecimens(inmillions)
Time
Can we catch up?

10.  Research collection occurrence records for United States & Canada
 Four sources of data accessed May, 2015
Tri-Trophic TCN
Symbiota Collections
of Arthropods TCN
The Data
GBIF
9,606,160
(1.1 million) (1.3 million) (2.2 million)
iDigBio
(5.2 million)

11. Methods
1. Compile raw data
2. Clean data
3. Format data
4. Compile formatted data
5. Run analysis scripts
The “Seltmann model 865B”
Biodiversity Cluster ArrayON OFF

12.  Collection Occurrence Records for United States & Canada
4,606,160 specimen records
3,733,257 georeferenced records (81%)
2,803,956 identified to species (60%)
2,166 families
20,153 genera
80,161 species (of 110,000 total in NA [?])
61,305 species georeferenced
692,749 unique occurrences (one locality)

13. #Records/2500km2
Biogeography of NA Arthropod Collections - 692,749 Species Records (Georeferenced)

14. Year Collected
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013
2012
2011
1.6 million records
Pre-Climate Change
Specimensdigitized(inthousands)
4.2 million total records
1,526 records before Columbus
637 records in future
Timeline of Arthropod Collecting?

15. # of Occurence Records
less than 30 >= 30 >= 100 >= 500 >=1000
NumberofSpecies
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
52,604 species
8,871 species (11%)
Research-Ready Data (identified to species & georeferenced)

16. Araneae
Orthoptera
Hemiptera
Coleoptera
Hymenoptera
Diptera
Lepidoptera
#Records(Millions)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Taxonomic Distribution: Expected versus Observed Records
Expected Observed

17. Vector pests Aquatics Herbivores Pollinators Predators Parasitoids
#Records(Millions)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Ecological Distribution: Expected versus Observed Records
Expected Observed
PredatorsParasitoids

18. Status of Research-Ready Arthropod Biodiversity Data
1. Fraction of specimens digitized, but enough to model for climate change impacts
2. Biogeography of specimen records confirms geographic significant bias
3. Historical data indicate enough taxa can be tested for climate change responses NOW
4. Taxonomic breadth of data generally good (except Diptera & Coleoptera?)
5. Ecological breadth of data generally good (except predators & parasitoids)

19. How many arthropod species are directly observable in the field?
Field-observable
arthropod taxa
• Dragonflies some damselflies
• Butterflies & Moths
• Ants
• Grasshoppers
• Crickets
• Cockroaches
• Earwigs
• Vespid wasps
• Cricket Crawl
• Lost Ladybug
• Great Sunflower Project
• Odonata Central
• Butterflies & Moths of NA
• BugGuide
Projects that use
observations
# of NA arthropod species that can be
observed in field and/or images
• 9,000 non-lepidopteran species
• 15,800 total observable species?
• 84,200 total “unobservable” species?
Collections currently hold the vast majority of arthropod occurrence data!!
• Moth Photographers Group
• DiscoverLife (Bee Hunt)
• Life on Loosestrife
• 6,800 lepidopteran species
Can we [arthropod scientists] follow the V & Vers (Vascular plant & Vertebrate scientists?)
• Other aquatic groups
• Miscellaneous species

20. Interim Conclusions
Take Your Pick
Really
11% full
Lots to do Lots to work with
TCN Collaboration