1.
Supporting local
policy making
How ONS’s statistics help us better
understand geographical disparities
24 January 2023
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2.
Welcome
Chair – Libby Richards
Deputy Director
ONS Local and Devolved Liaison Officers
Office for National Statistics
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3.
Agenda
10:00am: Registration
10:30am: Chair's welcome - Libby Richards, Deputy Director, ONS Local and Devolved Liaison Officers,
Office for National Statistics
10:35am: Opening address - Deborah Cadman, Chief Executive, Birmingham City Council
10:40am: GSS subnational data strategy – Sam Beckett, Second Permanent Secretary, Office for
National Statistics
10:55am: Estimating GVA for small areas – Andrea Lacey, Head of Subnational Statistics Development, Office
for National Statistics and Andrew Banks, Lead Data Scientist, Data Science Campus, Office for
National Statistics
11:20am: Q&A
11:30am: Break
11:45am: How a place is using ONS data – Richard Brooks, Director of Strategy, Equality & Partnerships,
Birmingham City Council
12:05pm: Q&A
12:20pm: Lunch
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4.
Agenda
1:20pm Chair Afternoon welcome – Stephen Jones, Director of Core Cities UK
1:25pm: Panel session: How can better evidence improve decision making?
Chair: Stephen Jones, Director of Core Cities UK
• Paul Swinney, Director of Policy and Research, Centre for Cities
• Tom Smith, Director of the Spatial Data Unit, DLUHC
• Emma Hickman, Deputy Director, Subnational Statistics and Analysis, Office for National Statistics
• Rebecca Riley, Associate Professor for Enterprise, Engagement, and Impact, Citi-REDI
2:10pm: Q&A
2:25pm: Break
2:40pm: Night-time Economy and Employment growth - towns and out of towns, Richard Prothero, Head of Centre for
Subnational Analysis, Office for National Statistics
3:00pm: Q&A
3:10pm: ONS Local – Libby Richards, Deputy Director, ONS Local and Devolved Liaison Officers, Office for National
Statistics
3:25pm: Closing remarks – Mike Keoghan, Deputy National Statistician and Director General for the Economic, Social and
Environment Group, Office for National Statistics
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5.
Questions can be submitted via slido.com using code #20822
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6.
Opening address
Deborah Cadman
Chief Executive
Birmingham City Council
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7.
GSS subnational data
strategy
Sam Beckett
Second Permanent Secretary
Office for National Statistics
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8.
Estimating GVA for
small areas
Andrea Lacey
Head of Subnational Statistics Development
Office for National Statistics
Andrew Banks
Lead Data Scientist, Data Science Campus
Office for National Statistics
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9.
Overview
• Where we started
• Where we are now and how we got there
• Case studies
• West Midlands Metro region
• Prince of Wales Bridge

10.
Producing granular GVA statistics
The first experimental estimates of gross value added (GVA) for lower levels of geography (MSOA and
equivalent geographies) launched alongside the GSS Subnational Strategy in December 2021.
Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOA), Data Zones (DZ) and Super Output Areas (SOA) were published in the
Secure Research Service (SRS)
Strategy Ambition 1: To produce more timely, granular and harmonised subnational statistics

11.
What’s new?
Today we have published the second set of experimental estimates of gross value added (GVA) for lower
levels of geography, at LSOA, DZ and SOA level.
Improvements :
Work is ongoing to design
and build a sustainable
hybrid system, to hand
back to regular production
Disclosure control
• Bespoke process
• Treating the risk of disclosure through the
development of an algorithm endorsed by
methodology experts

12.
Interactive map – GVA per job filled for travel to work
areas, 2009-2020

13.
Strengths/uses of LSOA/DZ/SOA data
Customisable, flexible, bespoke geographies for analysis
Not constrained by published geographies
Focus on transport routes, hubs of industry, cutting across pre-defined geographical
boundaries
Individual LSOA/DZ/SOA should not be compared with one another, but aggregated to build
larger areas for analysis – used as building blocks

14.
West Midlands Metro (WMM) region at December 2019
Sources: OS Open Zoomstack, Ordnance Survey; West Midlands Metro; Wikipedia;
Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v.3.0.
Contains OS data © Crown copyright 2023
Graphic created by ONS Geography

15.
GVA growth: Regional and National Comparisons to West
Midlands Metro (WMM) region, indexed to 1998
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
West Midlands Metro GVA West Midlands GVA United Kingdom GVA
1998=100
First section of the line was opened –
beginning at Wolverhampton St
George’s and ending at Birmingham
Snow Hill station
Construction
begins on the
first WMM
extension
Extension opened –
removing the Snow Hill stop
and instead leading trams
through Birmingham city
centre to Bull Street
Second extension opened –
continuing from Bull Street
stop, adding four stops to the
Library Centenary Square

16.
GVA and employment growth
90
100
110
120
130
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2015 = 100
GVA growth, indexed to 2015
West Midlands Metro GVA United Kingdom GVA West Midlands Region GVA
90
100
110
120
130
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2015 = 100
Employment growth, indexed to 2015
West Midlands Metro Empoyment West Midlands Emplyoment
United Kingdom Employment

17.
Population growth and house prices
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2005 = 100
House price growth, indexed to 2005
West Midlands Metro Area House Prices West Midlands House Prices
United Kingdom House Prices
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
2002=100
Population growth, indexed to 2002
West Midlands Metro Area Population West Midlands Metro Area Population
United Kingdom

18.
Population growth and house prices since 2012
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
West Midlands Metro population United Kingdom population
West Midlands Region Population
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
West Midlands Metro House prices United Kingdom House prices
West Midlands Region House prices
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
West Midlands Metro GVA United Kingdom GVA
West Midlands Region GVA
First extension opens
Second extension opens

19.
Use of new GVA data for
policymaking
Andy Banks, Lead Data Scientist
24 January 2022

20.
Use of new GVA data for policymaking
• ONS now produce GVA data for more detailed geographies
• This means policymakers can better track GVA for areas
affected by an intervention
• More accurate monitoring and evaluation

21.
Range of examples
• Targeted local investment (e.g. £17m
from the Levelling Up Fund to
regenerate the former Wheels site,
announced 17 Jan 2023)
• Local infrastructure projects (e.g.
Bullring shopping centre in September
2003)

22.
• Tolls removed in December 2018
• 50% South Wales businesses
said the Severn tolls were
‘important’ or ‘very important’ for
their business (Welsh
Government, 2012).
Impact on businesses and GVA

23.
• Look at GVA in Newport
and Monmouthshire with
a high concentration of
employment
• Use this as the ‘treated
group’
Selected LSOAs in Newport and Monmouthshire
with greater than 500 employees (n = 37)
Treatment group

24.
Control group
• Find a suitable, similar untreated
group of LSOAs in England and
Wales
• Exclude places within 90km of the
Severn Bridge and London
• For each of the 37 treated LSOAs,
find nine ‘similar LSOAs’ from this
candidate set
Candidate set of LSOAs for matching

25.
Selecting similar areas
Imperial business park, Newport
Stoke-on-Trent business and retail park
Hatfield business park

26.
No significant effect on GVA found
Average GVA for treated group and results from synthetic control modelling (£m)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Average
GVA
(£m)
Year
Pointwise effects for 95% placebos relative to treatment effect
Average GVA, Newport and Monmouthshire LSOAs, employees > 500, n=37
Removal of the bridge tolls

27.
Impact on house prices
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
Average
house
price
(£)
Year
Newport
Synthetic control
Removal of the bridge tolls
Average house price for Newport compared to synthetic control (£)

28.
Limitations
• Data only currently available up to 2020
• Provisional results from modelling subject to substantial change
and assumptions
• Effect not necessarily reflective of wider impact to South Wales
and South West England

29.
Conclusion
• New GVA data allow for better monitoring and evaluation of
local policies
• Data can be assessed to test economic impact appraisals that
were made before an intervention was put in place
• Additional tool to support policymakers

30.
Questions
Subnational@ons.gov.uk
Andrea.lacey@ons.gov.uk
Andrew.banks@ons.gov.uk
24 January 2023

31.
How Birmingham City Council is using
ONS data: Insight, Policy & Strategy and
the Birmingham City Observatory
Richard Brooks, Director of Strategy, Equality and Partnerships
Birmingham City Council, January 2023
… BE CURIOUS

32.
Why is ONS
data important
to us?
Because we
want to improve
outcomes for
citizens and
drive equality
and inclusion in
our city.
Improving access to
good quality data and
insight – a ‘single
version of the truth’
•Informing decision
making, policy and
strategy development
(including targeting
of services)
•Supporting improved
organisational
performance (linking
outcomes, outputs &
inputs)
•Allowing datasets to
be combined to
create new insights
and new value
•Enabling the sharing
of data and
supporting a
community of data
users across the city
PAGE 32

33.
We have invested in greater capacity and capability to use
data effectively – but it is a journey!
PAGE 33
Creating data & insight to inform BCC strategies, plans and actions throughout the policy
cycle and which will result in excellent outcomes for citizens and communities
Providing a ‘reliable and robust evidence base’, giving residents and organisations
across the public, private and voluntary sectors easier and more direct access to data and
insight that is relevant to them
Developing organisational capacity to analyse data and develop insight, and form
communities of practice to provide a ‘challenge space’ to enable co-development of
meaningful solutions to policy challenges
Fostering strong relationships with partners and stakeholders to facilitate the sharing of
data and insight. Develop a data charter to provide a framework for the city’s institutions
to safely and ethically share data
Developing future-focused policy and analysis and respond flexibly to emerging policies
and priorities

34.
PAGE 34
We have mapped our priorities onto relevant ONS data
PAGE 34

35.
• A public, open-source platform providing large quantities of data and insight
• Curated for Birmingham, drawing extensively on ONS data
• Run by the Insight, Policy & Strategy Team at BCC (Richard Smith)
• Already launched and in public view, but very much work in progress:
www.cityobservatory.birmingham.gov.uk
We have launched the Birmingham City Observatory
PAGE 35

36.
•Birmingham City
Council
Directorates &
Services
•Other Birmingham
Public Sector
Organisations
(NHS, DWP, etc.)
•Researchers and
knowledge sector
including universities,
think tanks, etc
•Private sector
businesses
•Politicians & the
Public
Birmingham
Voluntary,
Community, Faith &
Social Enterprise
Sector
PAGE 36
We have both
compelling city
council uses for
ONS data, and a
broad set of
external partners
to engage with.

37.
A journey towards data & insight maturity…
PAGE 37
• No need to commission & retrieve data from owners, just go to the Observatory and access content
directly. Key is getting right content onto the site…
Always available
• Data sets regularly updated with ‘pull through’ from source; regular and frequent additions. Longer term
aim for true real-time…
Close to real-time
• We should use the same information for internal decision making as we share with external partners and
the public. Transparency but also challenge…
Same for everyone
• We should publish insight that illuminates the issues and consequences, not just raw data. This will
depend on having a deep pool of expert contributors…
Not just data but insight
• We will actively manage internal and external engagement, seek feedback and improve. Need to
discover, develop, publish and promote partner data…
Engagement

38.
Example:
targeting
Cost of
Living
support
Birmingham City
Observatory,
Financial Resilience
Dashboard
PAGE 38

39.
PAGE 39
Example: are we meeting the diverse
needs of our city?
Birmingham City Observatory, Census 2021 Dashboard

40.
PAGE 40
Example: are we meeting the diverse
needs of our city?
Birmingham City Observatory, Census 2021 Dashboard

41.
Welcome back
Chair – Stephen Jones
Director
Core Cities UK
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42.
Panel session: How can
better evidence improve
decision making?
Chair – Stephen Jones
Director
Core Cities UK
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43.
Panel members
• Paul Swinney, Director of Policy and Research, Centre for Cities
• Tom Smith, Director of the Spatial Data Unit, DLUHC
• Emma Hickman, Deputy Director, Subnational Statistics and Analysis,
Office for National Statistics
• Rebecca Riley, Associate Professor for Enterprise, Engagement, and
Impact, Citi-REDI
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44.
Employment growth in
out-of-town locations,
towns and cities
Richard Prothero
Head of Centre for Subnational Analysis
Office for National Statistics
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45.
Towns & Out of Town
Employment Growth in Out-of-Town Locations vs Towns & Cities.
Definitions used:-
Large Cities = 19 largest cities (pop>225k), not
including London.
Towns = towns/smaller cities (pop 5k-225k).
Out-of-town = locations not within a town/city built-
up area boundary.
These definitions are in-line with those used in
previous ONS ‘Understanding Towns’ publications
and are based on Built-up Areas and Subdivisions
geographies from Census 2011.
Data from ONS Business Register and
Employment Survey (BRES)

46.
Towns & Out of Town
Out-of-Town Employment Growth by Region and Travel to Work Areas

47.
Towns & Out of Town
How Important are Out-of-Town locations?
Employment Share in out-of-town locations, 2021
by Travel to Work Area Classification
Share of Employment, 2021

48.
Towns & Out of Town
Employment Growth Analysis using Shift Share
NS = National Share
Growth due to allocating the overall
national employment increase of
13% between 2009 and 2021.
IM = Industry Mix Effect
Growth due to having a high share
of high-growing industries
RS = Regional Share
The difference between actual
growth and expected growth based
on national industry growth rates
and local industry mix (NS+IM)

49.
Towns & Out of Town
Out of Town Employment Growth – Shift Share Analysis

50.
Towns & Out of Town
Towns Employment Growth – Shift Share Analysis

51.
Towns & Out of Town
Employment Growth by Workplace Zone Classification

52.
Towns & Out of Town
Data for the West Midlands
Note: The ‘town and city’ growth rate includes all towns/cities within the Travel to Work Area.
Travel to Work Area
Out-of-Town Share
of Employment, 2021
Employment Growth Rate
2009-2021
Out-of-Town
Employment Growth Rate
2009-2021
Town and City
Hereford 45% 33% -6%
Stafford 29% 41% 2%
Leamington Spa 29% 33% 7%
Worcester and Kidderminster 23% 20% 8%
Shrewsbury 22% 7% 6%
Telford 15% 31% 13%
Stoke-on-Trent 14% 26% 6%
Coventry 14% 30% 16%
Wolverhampton and Walsall 11% 37% 4%
Birmingham 8% 18% 19%
Dudley 3% 48% -2%

53.
Night-Time Economy
Richard Prothero
Head of Centre for Subnational Analysis
Office for National Statistics
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54.
Night-Time Economy
Statistics on the Night-Time Economy
Within your regular pattern of work is it usual for you to work:
(1) during the day
(2) during the evening
(3) at night?
In 2022, it was “usual” for:-
4% of the workforce to work during the evening or night but not the
day,
23% during the evening or night and the day,
73% to only work during the day.
In this presentation, someone is
deemed a night-time worker if they
“usually” work either in the evening
or the night, irrespective of whether
they also “usually” work in the day.

55.
Night-Time Economy
Night Time Workers, 2012-2022
Proportion of workers who “usually” work
during the evening or night
The total number of night-time workers in the UK 2022
was 8.7 million, down 700,000 fewer from 2016.
In 2022, 4.9 million (56%) night-time workers were male and 3.9
million were female (44%).
Night-time workers by gender, (indexed 2012=100)

56.
Night-Time Economy
Night Time Workers by Location
Proportion of workers that are night-time workers
by country/region, 2022.
Proportion of night-time workers relative to
population by country/region, 2022

57.
Night-Time Economy
Night Time Workers by Industry
Industries that have a high share of night-time workers have been allocated to one of five
‘Night-Time Industry Groupings’
Proportion of night-time workers within
each industry grouping, 2022
Proportion of all night-time workers
by industry grouping, 2022

58.
Night-Time Economy
Night Time Workers by Place of Age Group
40% of night-time workers in night-time cultural and
leisure activities are aged under 24
40% of night-time workers in 24-hr health and
personal social services are aged 25-39

59.
Night-Time Economy
Night Time Workers by Occupation

60.
Night-Time Economy
Earnings by Night Time Industry Grouping
Chart shows pay of all workers within the industry groups, not just night-time workers.
Low earners = below two-thirds median hourly pay
High earners = over one and a half times median hourly pay
Breakdown of earnings of employees within each industry grouping, 2022

61.
Night-Time Economy
Night Time Workers by Place of Birth
Night-time workers by whether they were born in the UK or not
(index 2012=100)

62.
Night-Time Economy
Working at Home Trends for Night Time Workers
Proportion of workers working from home by night-time workers and purely daytime workers, 2022

63.
Night-Time Economy
Earnings by Night Time Industry Grouping
Restaurant and groceries groups
account for 42% and 22% of
spending between 6pm and 6am
(‘the night’), respectively.
Note: Revolut is more
concentrated in urban locations
Night-time spending during this
period accounted for a third of
total spend.
Anonymised and aggregated card
payments data provided by
Revolut, using a snapshot of time-
stamped spending between
Monday 7 November 2022 and
Monday 14 November 2022.

64.
ONS Local
Libby Richards
Deputy Director
ONS Local and Devolved Liaison Officers
Office for National Statistics
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65.
Our vision
An analytical advisory service for local
leaders, with dedicated ONS analysts based
across the UK, ensuring they have access to
data, statistics, and analysis to support
decision making.
ons.local@ons.gov.uk

66.
Our aims
ons.local@ons.gov.uk
UK wide
presence
Acting as a front
door onto wider
ONS support and
expertise
Helping users to
navigate existing
and developing
data sources
Work with regional
partners to influence
ONS plans and priorities
Make links between
national and local data
for greater insight
Join up areas with
similar challenges

67.
ONS
Local
New data
platforms
More
granular
local
statistics
New
datasets
ons.local@ons.gov.uk
ONS Local sits
alongside a
wider program
of work

68.
Spring Summer Autumn Winter
Recruited first
team members
Determined
design
principles for
the service
Hosted our first
roundtable
Hosted further
regional roundtables
Launch ONS
Local presents
webinars and
newsletter
Onboarded
regional leads
Bilateral conversations
with a few Local
Authority CEOs
Developed work
planning templates
Designed
prioritisation
framework for
requests
Continued supporting
Combined Authorities
What have we
done so far?
ons.local@ons.gov.uk

69.
ons.local@ons.gov.uk
Phased implementation
of our analytical offer…
Understanding user needs
Monthly newsletter
“ONS Local presents…”
webinar series
Helping users navigate data
platforms and use existing
data sources
Hosting forums to discuss
cross-cutting themes
Feedback local perspectives
into wider ONS
Providing support for users to
understand and interpret
datasets
Developing collaborative
analytical projects of benefit
to multiple areas and regions

70.
Monthly
newsletters
Regular
webinars
Capturing
user
feedback
Improving access
to subnational data
ons.local@ons.gov.uk

71.
Closing remarks
Mike Keoghan
Deputy National Statistician and Director General for
Economic, Social and Environment Group
Office for National Statistics
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72.
Thank you for attending
You can keep up to date on all upcoming events via ons.gov.uk/economicevents
If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so via
onslocaldataconference@ons.gov.uk
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