SlideShare a Scribd company logo

SlideShare Measuring the Economy Slidepack - 29 September 2023

Measuring the Economy 29 September 2023.

1 of 23
Download to read offline
Measuring the economy
29 September 2023
1
Welcome
Mike Keoghan
Director General
Economic, Social and Environment Group
Office for National Statistics
2 Slido #14746
Agenda
09:30am – 09:35am Welcome and introduction – Mike Keoghan, Director General for
Economic, Social and Environment Group
09:35am – 09:45am Today’s latest GDP data and revisions – Niamh McAuley,
Head of Quarterly GDP
09:45am – 09:55am Today’s Trade and Balance of Payments data – Chloe Gibbs,
Deputy Director, Global Trade and Investment
09:55am – 10:05am ONS approach to measuring GDP – Craig McLaren,
Deputy Director, Head of National Accounts
10:05am – 10:25am Question and answer session
10:25am – 10:30am Closing remarks – Mike Keoghan, Director General for
Economic, Social and Environment Group
3 Slido #14746
Today’s latest GDP data
and revisions
Niamh McAuley
Head of Quarterly GDP
Office for National Statistics
4 Slido #14746
Summary of main changes for latest data
• There is little to no revision to previously published GDP from 2022 onwards,
and we’ve seen only 1 out of the last 6 quarters have been revised
• The quarterly growth rate of GDP across 2022 is unrevised. Growth in 2023 Q1
is revised up 0.2pp and 2023 Q2 is unrevised.
• Our new data includes the previously announced upwards shift to 2020 and
2021
• Wide range of quality improvements we’re bringing in as part of this release
• New methods introduced as part of Blue Book 2023; this include new measures of travel
services, better measurement of non-market gross value-added new deflators; new VAT data
for Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, updated trade in services data; previous GDP balancing
adjustments
5 Slido #14746
Average real GDP, %
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2
GDP first quarterly estimate (August 2023) GDP quarterly national accounts (September 2023)
6 Slido #14746
Ad

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

GDP after 2025: updating national accounts and balance of payments – 11 Octob...
GDP after 2025: updating national accounts and balance of payments – 11 Octob...GDP after 2025: updating national accounts and balance of payments – 11 Octob...
GDP after 2025: updating national accounts and balance of payments – 11 Octob...Office for National Statistics
 
So what does ‘Beyond GDP’ mean for the UK – 12 October 2023
So what does ‘Beyond GDP’ mean for the UK – 12 October 2023So what does ‘Beyond GDP’ mean for the UK – 12 October 2023
So what does ‘Beyond GDP’ mean for the UK – 12 October 2023Office for National Statistics
 
The Business of Brexit: How Will You Be Impacted?
The Business of Brexit: How Will You Be Impacted?The Business of Brexit: How Will You Be Impacted?
The Business of Brexit: How Will You Be Impacted?Gowling WLG
 
Brexit Cause and Consequence
Brexit Cause and ConsequenceBrexit Cause and Consequence
Brexit Cause and ConsequenceMatthew Goodwin
 
Brexit Presentation
Brexit PresentationBrexit Presentation
Brexit PresentationTara Ambrose
 

What's hot (20)

ONS Economic Forum - 10 October 2022
ONS Economic Forum -  10 October 2022ONS Economic Forum -  10 October 2022
ONS Economic Forum - 10 October 2022
 
Supporting local policy making
Supporting local policy makingSupporting local policy making
Supporting local policy making
 
ONS Economic Forum
ONS Economic ForumONS Economic Forum
ONS Economic Forum
 
Brexit – what happens next?
Brexit – what happens next?Brexit – what happens next?
Brexit – what happens next?
 
GDP after 2025: updating national accounts and balance of payments – 11 Octob...
GDP after 2025: updating national accounts and balance of payments – 11 Octob...GDP after 2025: updating national accounts and balance of payments – 11 Octob...
GDP after 2025: updating national accounts and balance of payments – 11 Octob...
 
So what does ‘Beyond GDP’ mean for the UK – 12 October 2023
So what does ‘Beyond GDP’ mean for the UK – 12 October 2023So what does ‘Beyond GDP’ mean for the UK – 12 October 2023
So what does ‘Beyond GDP’ mean for the UK – 12 October 2023
 
ONS Economic Forum - June
ONS Economic Forum - JuneONS Economic Forum - June
ONS Economic Forum - June
 
The Business of Brexit: How Will You Be Impacted?
The Business of Brexit: How Will You Be Impacted?The Business of Brexit: How Will You Be Impacted?
The Business of Brexit: How Will You Be Impacted?
 
Brexit
BrexitBrexit
Brexit
 
British exit from European Union 2016
British exit from European Union 2016British exit from European Union 2016
British exit from European Union 2016
 
Brexit slides_-_pdf
Brexit slides_-_pdfBrexit slides_-_pdf
Brexit slides_-_pdf
 
Economic Forum - 25 April 2022
Economic Forum - 25 April 2022Economic Forum - 25 April 2022
Economic Forum - 25 April 2022
 
Brexit Cause and Consequence
Brexit Cause and ConsequenceBrexit Cause and Consequence
Brexit Cause and Consequence
 
Brexit
Brexit Brexit
Brexit
 
Brexit Presentation
Brexit PresentationBrexit Presentation
Brexit Presentation
 
Brexit
BrexitBrexit
Brexit
 
ONS business data and statistics user event
ONS business data and statistics user eventONS business data and statistics user event
ONS business data and statistics user event
 
Brexit
BrexitBrexit
Brexit
 
Global trade and investment user event
Global trade and investment user eventGlobal trade and investment user event
Global trade and investment user event
 
Brexit
BrexitBrexit
Brexit
 

Similar to SlideShare Measuring the Economy Slidepack - 29 September 2023

SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 11 December 2023
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 11 December 2023SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 11 December 2023
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 11 December 2023Office for National Statistics
 
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 22 January 2024
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 22 January 2024SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 22 January 2024
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 22 January 2024Office for National Statistics
 
Klöckner & Co SE - Q1 2017 Results - Press Conference
Klöckner & Co SE - Q1 2017 Results - Press ConferenceKlöckner & Co SE - Q1 2017 Results - Press Conference
Klöckner & Co SE - Q1 2017 Results - Press ConferenceKlöckner & Co SE
 
Klöckner & Co - Q3 2013 Results, Press Telephone Conference, November 6, 2013
Klöckner & Co - Q3 2013 Results, Press Telephone Conference, November 6, 2013Klöckner & Co - Q3 2013 Results, Press Telephone Conference, November 6, 2013
Klöckner & Co - Q3 2013 Results, Press Telephone Conference, November 6, 2013Klöckner & Co SE
 
UK Construction Industry Forecasts 2015-2019 #FISorg
UK Construction Industry Forecasts 2015-2019 #FISorgUK Construction Industry Forecasts 2015-2019 #FISorg
UK Construction Industry Forecasts 2015-2019 #FISorgfisorg
 
1Q 2015 Financial Results
1Q 2015 Financial Results1Q 2015 Financial Results
1Q 2015 Financial ResultsGruppo TIM
 
Lkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentation v2 4.27.18
Lkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentation v2 4.27.18Lkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentation v2 4.27.18
Lkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentation v2 4.27.18corporationlkq
 
Regional Economic Forum – Greater London Authority 24 October 2019 
Regional Economic Forum – Greater London Authority 24 October 2019 Regional Economic Forum – Greater London Authority 24 October 2019 
Regional Economic Forum – Greater London Authority 24 October 2019 Office for National Statistics
 
Lkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentation
Lkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentationLkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentation
Lkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentationcorporationlkq
 
Recent budgeting Developments - Julian Kelly, United Kingdom
Recent budgeting Developments - Julian Kelly, United KingdomRecent budgeting Developments - Julian Kelly, United Kingdom
Recent budgeting Developments - Julian Kelly, United KingdomOECD Governance
 
Newcastle Economic Roadshow - Exploring Regional Statistics
Newcastle Economic Roadshow - Exploring Regional StatisticsNewcastle Economic Roadshow - Exploring Regional Statistics
Newcastle Economic Roadshow - Exploring Regional StatisticsOffice for National Statistics
 
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 16 October 2023
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 16 October 2023SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 16 October 2023
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 16 October 2023Office for National Statistics
 
Lkq corporations-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2017-earnings-conference-call-p...
Lkq corporations-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2017-earnings-conference-call-p...Lkq corporations-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2017-earnings-conference-call-p...
Lkq corporations-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2017-earnings-conference-call-p...corporationlkq
 
Budget Preview 2015-16: 'Acche din' for capital market?
Budget Preview 2015-16: 'Acche din' for capital market?Budget Preview 2015-16: 'Acche din' for capital market?
Budget Preview 2015-16: 'Acche din' for capital market?IndiaNotes.com
 

Similar to SlideShare Measuring the Economy Slidepack - 29 September 2023 (20)

SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 11 December 2023
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 11 December 2023SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 11 December 2023
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 11 December 2023
 
Economic Forum: 13 July 2017
Economic Forum: 13 July 2017Economic Forum: 13 July 2017
Economic Forum: 13 July 2017
 
Inventing a better Britain
Inventing a better BritainInventing a better Britain
Inventing a better Britain
 
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 22 January 2024
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 22 January 2024SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 22 January 2024
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 22 January 2024
 
Economic Forum; Tuesday 18 October 2016
Economic Forum; Tuesday 18 October 2016Economic Forum; Tuesday 18 October 2016
Economic Forum; Tuesday 18 October 2016
 
Cardiff Economic Forum
Cardiff Economic ForumCardiff Economic Forum
Cardiff Economic Forum
 
Klöckner & Co SE - Q1 2017 Results - Press Conference
Klöckner & Co SE - Q1 2017 Results - Press ConferenceKlöckner & Co SE - Q1 2017 Results - Press Conference
Klöckner & Co SE - Q1 2017 Results - Press Conference
 
Klöckner & Co - Q3 2013 Results, Press Telephone Conference, November 6, 2013
Klöckner & Co - Q3 2013 Results, Press Telephone Conference, November 6, 2013Klöckner & Co - Q3 2013 Results, Press Telephone Conference, November 6, 2013
Klöckner & Co - Q3 2013 Results, Press Telephone Conference, November 6, 2013
 
UK Construction Industry Forecasts 2015-2019 #FISorg
UK Construction Industry Forecasts 2015-2019 #FISorgUK Construction Industry Forecasts 2015-2019 #FISorg
UK Construction Industry Forecasts 2015-2019 #FISorg
 
1Q 2015 Financial Results
1Q 2015 Financial Results1Q 2015 Financial Results
1Q 2015 Financial Results
 
Lkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentation v2 4.27.18
Lkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentation v2 4.27.18Lkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentation v2 4.27.18
Lkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentation v2 4.27.18
 
Regional Economic Forum – Greater London Authority 24 October 2019 
Regional Economic Forum – Greater London Authority 24 October 2019 Regional Economic Forum – Greater London Authority 24 October 2019 
Regional Economic Forum – Greater London Authority 24 October 2019 
 
Lkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentation
Lkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentationLkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentation
Lkq corporations first quarter 2018 earnings call presentation
 
Recent budgeting Developments - Julian Kelly, United Kingdom
Recent budgeting Developments - Julian Kelly, United KingdomRecent budgeting Developments - Julian Kelly, United Kingdom
Recent budgeting Developments - Julian Kelly, United Kingdom
 
Newcastle Economic Roadshow - Exploring Regional Statistics
Newcastle Economic Roadshow - Exploring Regional StatisticsNewcastle Economic Roadshow - Exploring Regional Statistics
Newcastle Economic Roadshow - Exploring Regional Statistics
 
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 16 October 2023
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 16 October 2023SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 16 October 2023
SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 16 October 2023
 
Lkq corporations-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2017-earnings-conference-call-p...
Lkq corporations-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2017-earnings-conference-call-p...Lkq corporations-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2017-earnings-conference-call-p...
Lkq corporations-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2017-earnings-conference-call-p...
 
ONS Economic Forum London 19 Oct 2017
ONS Economic Forum London 19 Oct 2017ONS Economic Forum London 19 Oct 2017
ONS Economic Forum London 19 Oct 2017
 
Budget Preview 2015-16: 'Acche din' for capital market?
Budget Preview 2015-16: 'Acche din' for capital market?Budget Preview 2015-16: 'Acche din' for capital market?
Budget Preview 2015-16: 'Acche din' for capital market?
 
UK Productivity User Forum
UK Productivity User ForumUK Productivity User Forum
UK Productivity User Forum
 

More from Office for National Statistics

Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptx
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptxSlideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptx
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptxOffice for National Statistics
 
Beyond GDP: international developments and emerging frameworks - 26 September...
Beyond GDP: international developments and emerging frameworks - 26 September...Beyond GDP: international developments and emerging frameworks - 26 September...
Beyond GDP: international developments and emerging frameworks - 26 September...Office for National Statistics
 
ONS Local presents Suffolk County Council's Cost of Living Dashboard
ONS Local presents Suffolk County Council's Cost of Living DashboardONS Local presents Suffolk County Council's Cost of Living Dashboard
ONS Local presents Suffolk County Council's Cost of Living DashboardOffice for National Statistics
 
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIs
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIsONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIs
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIsOffice for National Statistics
 
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIs
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIsONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIs
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIsOffice for National Statistics
 
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIs
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIsONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIs
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIsOffice for National Statistics
 
ONS Local presents: Adult Education Outcomes in London
ONS Local presents: Adult Education Outcomes in LondonONS Local presents: Adult Education Outcomes in London
ONS Local presents: Adult Education Outcomes in LondonOffice for National Statistics
 
ONS Local presents: Census 2021, products and analysis
ONS Local presents: Census 2021, products and analysisONS Local presents: Census 2021, products and analysis
ONS Local presents: Census 2021, products and analysisOffice for National Statistics
 
SlideShare Annual crime and justice statistics forum 2023.pptx
SlideShare Annual crime and justice statistics forum 2023.pptxSlideShare Annual crime and justice statistics forum 2023.pptx
SlideShare Annual crime and justice statistics forum 2023.pptxOffice for National Statistics
 
ONS Local presents: GLA's High Streets Data Service Tool
ONS Local presents: GLA's High Streets Data Service ToolONS Local presents: GLA's High Streets Data Service Tool
ONS Local presents: GLA's High Streets Data Service ToolOffice for National Statistics
 
ONS Local presents: Using Open Data to visualise public transport coverage
ONS Local presents: Using Open Data to visualise public transport coverageONS Local presents: Using Open Data to visualise public transport coverage
ONS Local presents: Using Open Data to visualise public transport coverageOffice for National Statistics
 

More from Office for National Statistics (18)

Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptx
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptxSlideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptx
Slideshare - ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 19 February 2024.pptx
 
Beyond GDP: international developments and emerging frameworks - 26 September...
Beyond GDP: international developments and emerging frameworks - 26 September...Beyond GDP: international developments and emerging frameworks - 26 September...
Beyond GDP: international developments and emerging frameworks - 26 September...
 
Why dashboards?
Why dashboards?Why dashboards?
Why dashboards?
 
Connecting to the NOMIS API in PowerBI
Connecting to the NOMIS API in PowerBIConnecting to the NOMIS API in PowerBI
Connecting to the NOMIS API in PowerBI
 
Connecting to the StatXplore API in PowerBI
Connecting to the StatXplore API in PowerBIConnecting to the StatXplore API in PowerBI
Connecting to the StatXplore API in PowerBI
 
ONS Local presents Suffolk County Council's Cost of Living Dashboard
ONS Local presents Suffolk County Council's Cost of Living DashboardONS Local presents Suffolk County Council's Cost of Living Dashboard
ONS Local presents Suffolk County Council's Cost of Living Dashboard
 
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIs
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIsONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIs
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIs
 
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIs
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIsONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIs
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIs
 
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIs
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIsONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIs
ONS Local and Data Science Community Workshop 1: How to use APIs
 
ONS Local presents: Adult Education Outcomes in London
ONS Local presents: Adult Education Outcomes in LondonONS Local presents: Adult Education Outcomes in London
ONS Local presents: Adult Education Outcomes in London
 
ONS Local presents: Explore Subnational Statistics
ONS Local presents: Explore Subnational StatisticsONS Local presents: Explore Subnational Statistics
ONS Local presents: Explore Subnational Statistics
 
ONS Local presents - Census 2021 Education Analysis
ONS Local presents - Census 2021 Education AnalysisONS Local presents - Census 2021 Education Analysis
ONS Local presents - Census 2021 Education Analysis
 
ONS local presents clustering
ONS local presents clusteringONS local presents clustering
ONS local presents clustering
 
ONS Local presents: Census 2021, products and analysis
ONS Local presents: Census 2021, products and analysisONS Local presents: Census 2021, products and analysis
ONS Local presents: Census 2021, products and analysis
 
SlideShare Annual crime and justice statistics forum 2023.pptx
SlideShare Annual crime and justice statistics forum 2023.pptxSlideShare Annual crime and justice statistics forum 2023.pptx
SlideShare Annual crime and justice statistics forum 2023.pptx
 
ONS local webinar housing affordabilty March 23.pptx
ONS local webinar housing affordabilty March 23.pptxONS local webinar housing affordabilty March 23.pptx
ONS local webinar housing affordabilty March 23.pptx
 
ONS Local presents: GLA's High Streets Data Service Tool
ONS Local presents: GLA's High Streets Data Service ToolONS Local presents: GLA's High Streets Data Service Tool
ONS Local presents: GLA's High Streets Data Service Tool
 
ONS Local presents: Using Open Data to visualise public transport coverage
ONS Local presents: Using Open Data to visualise public transport coverageONS Local presents: Using Open Data to visualise public transport coverage
ONS Local presents: Using Open Data to visualise public transport coverage
 

Recently uploaded

PM 24: TENTATIVE TECHNICAL PROGRAM STRUCTURE
PM 24: TENTATIVE TECHNICAL PROGRAM STRUCTUREPM 24: TENTATIVE TECHNICAL PROGRAM STRUCTURE
PM 24: TENTATIVE TECHNICAL PROGRAM STRUCTUREnissamant
 
MC_forecasts_finals series 17_feb2024.pdf
MC_forecasts_finals series 17_feb2024.pdfMC_forecasts_finals series 17_feb2024.pdf
MC_forecasts_finals series 17_feb2024.pdfARCResearch
 
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 6
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 62024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 6
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 6JSchaus & Associates
 
Manuscript Template Name of the Author PM24
Manuscript Template Name of the Author PM24Manuscript Template Name of the Author PM24
Manuscript Template Name of the Author PM24nissamant
 
2024 IEA Ministerial Communique- Paris 14th February 2024
2024 IEA Ministerial Communique- Paris 14th February 20242024 IEA Ministerial Communique- Paris 14th February 2024
2024 IEA Ministerial Communique- Paris 14th February 2024Energy for One World
 
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 7
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 72024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 7
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 7JSchaus & Associates
 
Trading standards: How exposure to global trade shapes our living standards
Trading standards: How exposure to global trade shapes our living standardsTrading standards: How exposure to global trade shapes our living standards
Trading standards: How exposure to global trade shapes our living standardsResolutionFoundation
 
""THE BARANGAY NUTRITION COMMITTEE.pptx"
""THE BARANGAY NUTRITION COMMITTEE.pptx"""THE BARANGAY NUTRITION COMMITTEE.pptx"
""THE BARANGAY NUTRITION COMMITTEE.pptx"rodilyAcua
 
Observance of the International Mother Language Day (IMLD) 2024.pdf
Observance of the International Mother Language Day (IMLD) 2024.pdfObservance of the International Mother Language Day (IMLD) 2024.pdf
Observance of the International Mother Language Day (IMLD) 2024.pdfChristina Parmionova
 
Monroe Downtown Master Plan Public Meeting 2 Presentation
Monroe Downtown Master Plan Public Meeting 2 PresentationMonroe Downtown Master Plan Public Meeting 2 Presentation
Monroe Downtown Master Plan Public Meeting 2 Presentationabbystainfield
 
Extract Slides: Munich Security Conference 2024_ Lose- Lose_ (3).pdf
Extract Slides: Munich Security Conference 2024_ Lose- Lose_ (3).pdfExtract Slides: Munich Security Conference 2024_ Lose- Lose_ (3).pdf
Extract Slides: Munich Security Conference 2024_ Lose- Lose_ (3).pdfEnergy for One World
 
PM International Conference 24 Poster Template
PM International Conference 24 Poster TemplatePM International Conference 24 Poster Template
PM International Conference 24 Poster Templatenissamant
 
501 c3 - Determination Letter - First Tee Puerto Rico
501 c3 - Determination Letter - First Tee Puerto Rico501 c3 - Determination Letter - First Tee Puerto Rico
501 c3 - Determination Letter - First Tee Puerto RicoFirst Tee Puerto Rico
 
Improved Seed for Nutrition and Food Security for Farming Communities in Mada...
Improved Seed for Nutrition and Food Security for Farming Communities in Mada...Improved Seed for Nutrition and Food Security for Farming Communities in Mada...
Improved Seed for Nutrition and Food Security for Farming Communities in Mada...SeedSystemsGroup
 
PMAI PM24: Guidelines for the Poster Presentation
PMAI PM24: Guidelines for the Poster PresentationPMAI PM24: Guidelines for the Poster Presentation
PMAI PM24: Guidelines for the Poster Presentationnissamant
 
PMAI PM24 International Conference Program Schedule
PMAI PM24 International Conference Program SchedulePMAI PM24 International Conference Program Schedule
PMAI PM24 International Conference Program Schedulenissamant
 

Recently uploaded (20)

PM 24: TENTATIVE TECHNICAL PROGRAM STRUCTURE
PM 24: TENTATIVE TECHNICAL PROGRAM STRUCTUREPM 24: TENTATIVE TECHNICAL PROGRAM STRUCTURE
PM 24: TENTATIVE TECHNICAL PROGRAM STRUCTURE
 
MC_forecasts_finals series 17_feb2024.pdf
MC_forecasts_finals series 17_feb2024.pdfMC_forecasts_finals series 17_feb2024.pdf
MC_forecasts_finals series 17_feb2024.pdf
 
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 6
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 62024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 6
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 6
 
Manuscript Template Name of the Author PM24
Manuscript Template Name of the Author PM24Manuscript Template Name of the Author PM24
Manuscript Template Name of the Author PM24
 
World Radio Day 2024
World Radio Day 2024World Radio Day 2024
World Radio Day 2024
 
2024 IEA Ministerial Communique- Paris 14th February 2024
2024 IEA Ministerial Communique- Paris 14th February 20242024 IEA Ministerial Communique- Paris 14th February 2024
2024 IEA Ministerial Communique- Paris 14th February 2024
 
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 7
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 72024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 7
2024: The FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulations - Part 7
 
Trading standards: How exposure to global trade shapes our living standards
Trading standards: How exposure to global trade shapes our living standardsTrading standards: How exposure to global trade shapes our living standards
Trading standards: How exposure to global trade shapes our living standards
 
""THE BARANGAY NUTRITION COMMITTEE.pptx"
""THE BARANGAY NUTRITION COMMITTEE.pptx"""THE BARANGAY NUTRITION COMMITTEE.pptx"
""THE BARANGAY NUTRITION COMMITTEE.pptx"
 
Observance of the International Mother Language Day (IMLD) 2024.pdf
Observance of the International Mother Language Day (IMLD) 2024.pdfObservance of the International Mother Language Day (IMLD) 2024.pdf
Observance of the International Mother Language Day (IMLD) 2024.pdf
 
Monroe Downtown Master Plan Public Meeting 2 Presentation
Monroe Downtown Master Plan Public Meeting 2 PresentationMonroe Downtown Master Plan Public Meeting 2 Presentation
Monroe Downtown Master Plan Public Meeting 2 Presentation
 
Rahil Foundation
Rahil Foundation Rahil Foundation
Rahil Foundation
 
Extract Slides: Munich Security Conference 2024_ Lose- Lose_ (3).pdf
Extract Slides: Munich Security Conference 2024_ Lose- Lose_ (3).pdfExtract Slides: Munich Security Conference 2024_ Lose- Lose_ (3).pdf
Extract Slides: Munich Security Conference 2024_ Lose- Lose_ (3).pdf
 
Revised Investigative Report on City Officials
Revised Investigative Report on City OfficialsRevised Investigative Report on City Officials
Revised Investigative Report on City Officials
 
PM International Conference 24 Poster Template
PM International Conference 24 Poster TemplatePM International Conference 24 Poster Template
PM International Conference 24 Poster Template
 
501 c3 - Determination Letter - First Tee Puerto Rico
501 c3 - Determination Letter - First Tee Puerto Rico501 c3 - Determination Letter - First Tee Puerto Rico
501 c3 - Determination Letter - First Tee Puerto Rico
 
Improved Seed for Nutrition and Food Security for Farming Communities in Mada...
Improved Seed for Nutrition and Food Security for Farming Communities in Mada...Improved Seed for Nutrition and Food Security for Farming Communities in Mada...
Improved Seed for Nutrition and Food Security for Farming Communities in Mada...
 
PMAI PM24: Guidelines for the Poster Presentation
PMAI PM24: Guidelines for the Poster PresentationPMAI PM24: Guidelines for the Poster Presentation
PMAI PM24: Guidelines for the Poster Presentation
 
PMAI PM24 International Conference Program Schedule
PMAI PM24 International Conference Program SchedulePMAI PM24 International Conference Program Schedule
PMAI PM24 International Conference Program Schedule
 
PPT LESSON G-9.pptx
PPT LESSON G-9.pptxPPT LESSON G-9.pptx
PPT LESSON G-9.pptx
 

SlideShare Measuring the Economy Slidepack - 29 September 2023

  • 1. Measuring the economy 29 September 2023 1
  • 2. Welcome Mike Keoghan Director General Economic, Social and Environment Group Office for National Statistics 2 Slido #14746
  • 3. Agenda 09:30am – 09:35am Welcome and introduction – Mike Keoghan, Director General for Economic, Social and Environment Group 09:35am – 09:45am Today’s latest GDP data and revisions – Niamh McAuley, Head of Quarterly GDP 09:45am – 09:55am Today’s Trade and Balance of Payments data – Chloe Gibbs, Deputy Director, Global Trade and Investment 09:55am – 10:05am ONS approach to measuring GDP – Craig McLaren, Deputy Director, Head of National Accounts 10:05am – 10:25am Question and answer session 10:25am – 10:30am Closing remarks – Mike Keoghan, Director General for Economic, Social and Environment Group 3 Slido #14746
  • 4. Today’s latest GDP data and revisions Niamh McAuley Head of Quarterly GDP Office for National Statistics 4 Slido #14746
  • 5. Summary of main changes for latest data • There is little to no revision to previously published GDP from 2022 onwards, and we’ve seen only 1 out of the last 6 quarters have been revised • The quarterly growth rate of GDP across 2022 is unrevised. Growth in 2023 Q1 is revised up 0.2pp and 2023 Q2 is unrevised. • Our new data includes the previously announced upwards shift to 2020 and 2021 • Wide range of quality improvements we’re bringing in as part of this release • New methods introduced as part of Blue Book 2023; this include new measures of travel services, better measurement of non-market gross value-added new deflators; new VAT data for Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, updated trade in services data; previous GDP balancing adjustments 5 Slido #14746
  • 6. Average real GDP, % -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 GDP first quarterly estimate (August 2023) GDP quarterly national accounts (September 2023) 6 Slido #14746
  • 7. 7 Services- contributions to growth 2023 Q2 Slido #14746
  • 8. 8 Manufacturing - contributions to growth 2023 Q2 Slido #14746
  • 9. Quarterly Household Pension to Non-Pension Saving (%, CP) 9 Slido #14746
  • 10. Today’s Trade and Balance of Payments data Chloe Gibbs Deputy Director Global Trade and Investment Office for National Statistics 10 Slido #14746
  • 11. 11 Latest balance of payments estimates The underlying UK current account deficit excluding precious metals was 4.2% of GDP in Quarter 2, little changed over the past year The trade deficit reduced by £0.9 billion in Quarter 2 2023 But primary income deficit widened under increased interest rates; debits increased more than credits as there are higher non-residents’ investments in the UK than UK residents’ investments abroad Slido #14746
  • 12. 12 Methodology improvements have been applied to estimates, 1997 onwards In relation to trade: • Following extensive methodology and validation collaboration with HMRC, we have adjusted downwards these imports in Jan – Jun 2022 to reflect Staged Customs Controls (SCC). • Methods improvements to education exports have increased exports estimates by £4 billion in 2021. • Wider range of quality improvements we’re bringing in as part of this release: • Globalisation • Method of proportioning household expenditure on smuggled tobacco • Rail passenger data, Embassies and consulates, and US Air Force data • Deflators (Travel and those for services between affiliated enterprises, other business publishing, and intangible assets) Foreign Direct Investment: • Population changes in 2020 were previously applied to 2020 onwards • Until now the 2020 data was provisional; benchmarked data now incorporated Slido #14746
  • 13. 13 Measuring globalisation in national accounts Improvements to measuring globalisation in UK national accounts has focused on a small number of multi national enterprises, and based on: • The way in which transactions are recorded when economic ownership changes • This is following international guidance on the classification of businesses • Of different business models considered, UK principals in toll manufacturing arrangements and merchanting have the largest impact in trade estimates Slido #14746
  • 14. 14 Impacts of revisions 1997 to 2021: Current account The revision to the Current account ranges from -0.1% of GDP in 1998 to +1.0% in 2021 Current account balance revisions as % of nominal GDP, 1997 to 2021 Slido #14746
  • 15. 15 Staged Customs Controls adjustments (2022) Applied to first half of 2022, to remove 2021 goods imports that were reported in 2021 under Intrastat, and reported again in 2022 under customs declarations. • Impact is a reduction of £6 billion in goods imports from the EU in Jan to June 2022 • Applied across the first six months of that year, with a small tailing off in May/June • Main impact is on vehicles other than railway and tramway • Details to be provided in our article to accompany UK Trade: August 2023, published 12 October Slido #14746
  • 16. ONS approach to measuring GDP data Craig McLaren Head of National Accounts Office for National Statistics 16 Slido #14746
  • 17. The UK approach to measuring GDP • Monthly GDP: flash estimate, but based on the output approach, is published around 40 days after the end of the reference month. • First Quarterly Estimate: published around six weeks after the end of the reference quarter containing output, expenditure and income data. • Quarterly National Accounts: published around 13 weeks after the end of the reference quarter and includes a full national accounts dataset with increased data content. • Annual Bluebook (coherent annual estimates): published usually in July or October each year. The Blue Book is an annual publication, and is the point of annual reconciliation of data sources. 17 Slido #14746
  • 18. What changes occur between our Quarterly National Accounts and Annual National Accounts? 1. Use of updated data (e.g. new data from our annual surveys) 2. Improved methods and new data sources introduced 3. More complete data available on key concepts (e.g. intermediate consumption from Annual Business Survey and Annual Purchases Survey) 4. Annual supply and use balancing in current prices and volume estimates at the detailed 112 product and 112 industry level 5. This takes account of price impacts (deflation) by industry and product rather than high level aggregates 18 Slido #14746
  • 19. Why do we see revisions? • UK economy is ~£2.5 trillion. GDP is compiled using many different sources covering combinations of administrative and survey information • We have a balance between timeliness and reliability. Data content improves over time • Use of comprehensive administrative data replaces early survey data • Annual surveys have far greater detail but can come with a time lag (e.g. 2 years) • Our National Accounts revision policy helps us manage our changes • We monitor revision performance and this shows that typically (on average) our initial revisions to GDP estimates at the t+3 month horizon are not statistically significant. Will be impacted by underlying changes in the economy. 19 Slido #14746
  • 20. International context • The challenge of measuring the 2020 and 2021 time periods is not unique to the UK • Some recent revisions for 2021 are in line with our announced changes • UK: 1.1 percentage points up (8.7 percent from 7.6 percent) • Spain: 1.1 percentage points up (6.4 percent from 5.5 percent) Spanish Statistical Agency • Netherlands: 1.3 percentage points up (6.2 percent from 4.9 percent) The Netherlands • Italy: 1.3 percentage points up (8.3 percent from 7.0 percent) Italy • Countries will have their own revision schedules 20 Slido #14746
  • 21. Office for Statistics Regulation review Review currently underway, focused on three themes: 1. Processes and quality assurance involved in making revisions to GDP 2. Potential improvements to early estimates of GDP enabled through enhanced access to data 3. Communication of: • revisions to GDP • the story behind the most recent set of revisions in particular • uncertainty in early estimates of GDP 21 Slido #14746
  • 22. Q and A Grant Fitzner Director and Chief Economist Economic, Social and Environment Group Office for National Statistics 22 Slido #14746
  • 23. Thank you for attending Measuring the economy You can keep up to date on all upcoming events via ons.gov.uk/economicevents If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so via economic.engagement@ons.gov.uk 23 Slido #14746