The document outlines the agenda and key findings from the Office for National Statistics Economic Forum, focusing on issues such as deprivation inequalities among GCSE students during COVID-19, inflation trends in the UK and G7, and the current state of the UK economy. Notable findings include marked disparities in educational access and outcomes for students from deprived areas, and ongoing high inflation particularly in core prices despite improvements in energy inflation. The forum also emphasizes the uncertain economic outlook and opens opportunities for public consultation and engagement in statistical development.

1. ONS Economic Forum
Chair – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154
Deputy Director
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics

2. Agenda
09:30am – 09:35am Welcome and introduction – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, Deputy Director, Economic and
Microdata Insights, Office for National Statistics
09:35am – 09:45am Deprivation inequalities in the experiences of GCSE students during coronavirus (COVID-19),
England: September 2021 to March 2022 – Katie Hendry, Office for National Statistics
09:45am – 09:55am UK and G7 inflation: Recent trends in energy, food and core prices – Stefan Ubovic, Office for
National Statistics
09:55am – 10:10am State of the UK economy – Mike Keoghan, Direct General for Economic, Social and
Environmental Group, Office for National Statistics
10:10am – 10:25am Questions and answers
10:25am – 10:30am Closing remarks – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, Deputy Director, Economic and Microdata
Insights, Office for National Statistics
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

3. Senior analyst
Office for National Statistics
Deprivation inequalities in
the experiences of GCSE
students during coronavirus
(COVID-19), England:
September 2021 to March
2022
Katie Hendry
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

4. Background
• Used wave 1 of the COVID Social Mobility and Opportunities
(COSMO) data; a longitudinal study aiming to monitor how the
pandemic has affected young people’s education and well-being.
• Analysis focuses on the deprivation inequalities in experiences of
young people who were studying for their GCSEs during the COVID-19
pandemic.
• Representative sample of approximately 13,000 young people in
England who were in Year 11 in the 2020/21 academic year.
• Data collected between September 2021 and March 2022 when the
students were in Year 12 or the first year of further education at the time
of taking part in the survey.
• We have explored lockdown learning, education recovery and
catch-up, and plans and aspirations for the future.

5. Key findings

6. In-person attendance was higher for students in the
most deprived areas during the third lockdown
Proportion of students in England attending school in person during lockdowns, September 2021 to
March 2022

7. Students in the most deprived areas were less likely
to be provided with online learning during the third
lockdown
Proportion of students in England with access to online learning for subject lessons during lockdowns,
September 2021 to March 2022

8. Students in the most deprived areas were less likely
to have access to devices but more likely to be
provided with devices by their school
Proportion of students in England reporting
having access to suitable devices and provision
of devices by their school, September 2021 to
March 2022

9. Struggling with motivation was the most common
barrier to learning during both lockdowns, but was
reported less by students in the most deprived areas
Proportion of students in England
reporting feeling unmotivated as a
barrier to remote learning during
lockdowns, September 2021 to March
2022

10. Students in the most deprived areas were more likely to
report falling behind classmates due to the pandemic
Proportions of students in England who agreed with the following statements around catch-up concerns, September
2021 to March 2022

11. Students in the most deprived areas were more likely to take
up the offer of catch-up activities in their final year
Proportion of students in England taking up catch-up activities in schools during Year 11, September 2021 to March
2022

12. Students in the most deprived areas were less likely to report
that they would be in full-time education in two years' time
Proportion of students in England reporting what they are most likely to be doing in two years’ time, September 2021
to March 2022

13. Next steps
COSMO WAVE 2
(UCL, SUTTON TRUST &
KANTAR PUBLIC)
EDUCATION AND
SOCIAL MOBILITY TEAM
(ANALYTICAL HUB, ONS)

14. Thank you!
Contacts:
Integrated.Data.Analysis@ons.gov.uk
Katie.Hendry@ons.gov.uk
Jodie.Davis@ons.gov.uk
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

15. Head of Economic Analysis – Prices
Office for National Statistics
UK and G7 inflation
Recent trends in energy,
food and core prices
Stefan Ubovic
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

16. UK inflation declined in April but remains the highest
in the G7
Source: OECD, ONS Source: OECD, ONS
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

17. Energy price inflation has declined across G7
economies
Source: OECD, ONS
Default tariff
price cap
Energy
Price
Guarantee
Prices
consumers
pay
Oct 21 £1,277 - +12%
Apr 22 £1,971 - +54%
Oct 22 £3,549 £2,500 +27%
Jan 23 £4,279 £2,500 =
Apr 23 £3,280 £2,500 =
Jul 23 £2,074 £3,000 -17%
Note: Prices consumers pay marked in yellow; Source: Ofgem, ONS
Table 1: Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) and the Ofgem price cap
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

18. Food price inflation has peaked in most G7 countries,
albeit the moderation is still in early stages in the UK
Source: OECD, ONS
Source: ONS
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

19. Markups in the milk supply chain have decompressed
from exceptionally low levels during the pandemic
Note: The difference between retail prices and farmgate prices is only a proxy measurement of markups
and includes other costs (such as processing, storage, and distribution) in addition to firms’ profit margins;
Source: AHDB, ONS
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

20. UK core inflation surprised to the upside in April,
increasing the gap with other G7 economies
Source: OECD, ONS
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

21. Key Takeaways
 UK inflation remains among the highest in the G7 across most metrics
 The GOOD: Energy price inflation has declined sharply
 The BAD: Food price inflation is still very high but might be close to peak
 The UGLY: Core inflation is still increasing and surprised to the upside
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

22. State of the UK Economy
June 2023
Mike Keoghan
Direct General for Economic, Social and
Environmental Group
Office for National Statistics
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

23. Goods inflation has fallen back as energy base effects
unwind, but core inflation continues to be elevated
Source: ONS, Consumer Price Inflation Source: ONS, Consumer Price Inflation
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan 19 Jul 19 Jan 20 Jul 20 Jan 21 Jul 21 Jan 22 Jul 22 Jan 23
Contributions to CPI by energy intensity, Jan 2019 Apr
2023
Very low Low High Very high Energy Rents
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Jan 19 Jul 19 Jan 20 Jul 20 Jan 21 Jul 21 Jan 22 Jul 22 Jan 23
Goods, services and core CPI, Jan 19 to Apr 23
Goods Services Core CPI
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

24. The UK has the highest core inflation in the G7 but
businesses expect inflation in their selling price to fall
Source: OECD; Eurostat Source: BICS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Mar 22 May 22 Jul 22 Sep 22 Nov 22 Jan 23 Mar 23
Net reported prices for goods or services in the
previous month, Mar 2022 to Apr 2023
Bought Sold
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK USA
G7 all-items and core inflation, April 2023
Headline Inflation Core CPI
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

25. Energy pressures have fallen back slightly
Source: ONS, profitability of UK companies Source: BICS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jun 22 Aug 22 Oct 22 Dec 22 Feb 23 Apr 23 Jun 23
Factors causing businesses to raise prices, Jun 2022 to
Jun 2023
Energy prices Labour costs Raw material prices
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Dec 12 Mar 14 Jun 15 Sep 16 Dec 17 Mar 19 Jun 20 Sep 21 Dec 22
Net rate of return, UK companies 2012 Q4 - 2022 Q4
Manufacturing Services Continental Shelf Companies
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

26. A record number of people have re-joined the labour
market recently but the labour market is still tight
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey Source: ONS, labour market summary
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Jan 03 Jul 05 Jan 08 Jul 10 Jan 13 Jul 15 Jan 18 Jul 20 Jan 23
Vacancy/unemployment ratio, January 2003- March
2023
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2019 Q1 2019 Q4 2020 Q3 2021 Q2 2022 Q1 2022 Q4
Gross
flow
Hazard rates, people aged 16-64, UK, 2019 Q1 to
2023 Q1
Economic inactivity to employment Economic inactivity to unemployment
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

27. The UK economic outlook has improved but remains
low and uncertain
Source: OECD Source: HM Treasury
-1.2%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
Feb 23 Mar 23 Apr 23 May 23
Real-time forecasts, 2023 Q2 GDP growth
upper/lower estimates
median
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3
Real GDP projections, 2022 Q4 -2024 Q3
November 2022 forecast
June 2023 forecast
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

28. House prices have fallen across the UK as the impact of
higher interest rates continue to pass through
Source: ONS, House Price Index, Halifax and Nationwide Source: Bank of England
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Jan 2019 Jul 2019 Jan 2020 Jul 2020 Jan 2021 Jul 2021 Jan 2022 Jul 2022 Jan 2023
Annual change in house prices, Jan 2019 to Apr 2023
UK HPI Halifax Nationwide
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
22-
Q1
22-
Q3
23-
Q1
23-
Q3
24-
Q1
24-
Q3
25-
Q1
25-
Q3
Thousands
Fixed rate mortgage renewals by existing interest rate,
2022 Q1 - 2025Q4
>2.5% fixed rate 2-2.5% fixed rate
<2% fixed rate Bank Rate/Forward curve (current)
Bank Rate/Forward curve (April)
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

29. Conclusions
• Inflation has fallen back as energy base effects unwind but core
inflation has continued to rise
• Economic inactivity has fallen as more people have re-joined the
labour market
• GDP forecasts have improved slightly but the outlook remains
uncertain
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

30. Closing remarks
Chair – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum
Deputy Director
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics
slido #33154

31. Forthcoming ONS economic analysis
13 June 2023 Labour Market theme day
14 June 2023 Short-term economic indicators theme day (including monthly GDP and trade)
16 June 2023 Automation and AI (provisional as of today, but should be announced by Monday)
20 June 2023 Subregional productivity in the UK: June 2023
21 June 2023 Prices theme day
21 June 2023 Private rental market summary statistics in England: April 2022 to March 2023
23 June 2023 Retail sales, Great Britain: May 2023
All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

32. Dates for your diary
• 5 July 2023 Beyond GDP: what matters to national well-being
• 10 July 2023 Family finance surveys user conference 2023
• 17 July 2023 ONS Economic Forum – Registration to open shortly
Further details on the above event and any upcoming events will be published at
ons.gov.uk/economicevents
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

33. Consultation on the future of population and
migration statistics
On 29 June 2023, we will be launching a public consultation on our proposals for a transformed
population and migration statistics system. Understanding your user needs will be essential
evidence in making our recommendations to Government on the future of population statistics.
To discuss the consultation, we are holding a series of free events. Links to these sessions, can be
found in the chat box and will be circulated post event.
 4 July 2023 National Statistician’s launch event, London. Online attendance also available.
 6 July 2023 National Statistician’s launch event, Cardiff. Online attendance also available.
 13 July 2023 Launch webinar. Open to all sectors.
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #33154

34. Thank you for attending the
Economic Forum
You can keep up to date on all upcoming events via
ons.gov.uk/economicevents
If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so
via economic.engagement@ons.gov.uk