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ONS Economic Forum
Chair – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
Deputy Director
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics
Agenda
• 09:30am – 09:35am Welcome and introduction – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, Deputy Director, Economic and
Microdata Insights, Office for National Statistics
• 09:35am – 09:50am State of the UK economy – Mike Keoghan, Direct General for Economic, Social and
Environmental Group, Office for National Statistics
• 09:50am – 10:00am The role of labour costs and profits in UK inflation – Stefan Ubovic, Office for National
Statistics
• 10:00am – 10:10am Experimental estimates of green jobs and provisional estimates of greenhouse gas
emissions – Gemma Thomas and Alexandra Christenson, Office for National Statistics
• 10:10am – 10:25am Questions and answers
• 10:25am – 10:30am Closing remarks – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, Deputy Director, Economic and Microdata
Insights, Office for National Statistics
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
State of the UK Economy
October 2023
Mike Keoghan
Direct General for Economic, Social and
Environmental Group
Office for National Statistics
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
Inflation seems set to continue falling as energy prices decrease
and underlying inflation shows tentative signs of easing
Source: ONS, Bank of England Source: ONS – Prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Percentage
Points
Contributions to CPI , January 2019 to December
2023
Services
Electricity and gas
Fuels and lubricants
Other goods
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
CPI
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
UK Inflation measures, January 2002 to August 2023
Core CPI
Service CPI
15% trim
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
Market expectations of rising interest rates may be
tempered by lower inflation
Source: Bank of England Source: Bank of England, US Federal Reserve
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Outturn and market-implied path of interest rates,
January 2020 - September 2026
Outrun
May 2023 forecast (bank)
August 2023 forecast (bank)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
Per
cent
Nominal yield curves, 10-year gilts, UK and US, 4
January 2016 to 5 October 2023
UK
US
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
Recent economic activity has been characterized by high
volatility
Source: ONS – Monthly GDP Source: ONS – Monthly GDP
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23
Change in monthly GDP, January 2022 - August 2023
Month/Month 3m/3m
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
Contributions to monthly GDP growth,
August 2022 - August 2023
Services Production Construction GDP
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970

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SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 16 October 2023

  • 1. ONS Economic Forum Chair – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970 Deputy Director Economic and Microdata Insights Office for National Statistics
  • 2. Agenda • 09:30am – 09:35am Welcome and introduction – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, Deputy Director, Economic and Microdata Insights, Office for National Statistics • 09:35am – 09:50am State of the UK economy – Mike Keoghan, Direct General for Economic, Social and Environmental Group, Office for National Statistics • 09:50am – 10:00am The role of labour costs and profits in UK inflation – Stefan Ubovic, Office for National Statistics • 10:00am – 10:10am Experimental estimates of green jobs and provisional estimates of greenhouse gas emissions – Gemma Thomas and Alexandra Christenson, Office for National Statistics • 10:10am – 10:25am Questions and answers • 10:25am – 10:30am Closing remarks – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, Deputy Director, Economic and Microdata Insights, Office for National Statistics @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 3. State of the UK Economy October 2023 Mike Keoghan Direct General for Economic, Social and Environmental Group Office for National Statistics @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 4. Inflation seems set to continue falling as energy prices decrease and underlying inflation shows tentative signs of easing Source: ONS, Bank of England Source: ONS – Prices 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Percentage Points Contributions to CPI , January 2019 to December 2023 Services Electricity and gas Fuels and lubricants Other goods Food and non-alcoholic beverages CPI 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% UK Inflation measures, January 2002 to August 2023 Core CPI Service CPI 15% trim @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 5. Market expectations of rising interest rates may be tempered by lower inflation Source: Bank of England Source: Bank of England, US Federal Reserve 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Outturn and market-implied path of interest rates, January 2020 - September 2026 Outrun May 2023 forecast (bank) August 2023 forecast (bank) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Per cent Nominal yield curves, 10-year gilts, UK and US, 4 January 2016 to 5 October 2023 UK US @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 6. Recent economic activity has been characterized by high volatility Source: ONS – Monthly GDP Source: ONS – Monthly GDP -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Change in monthly GDP, January 2022 - August 2023 Month/Month 3m/3m -0.8% -0.6% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% Contributions to monthly GDP growth, August 2022 - August 2023 Services Production Construction GDP @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 7. Public sector net debt has reached a 70-year high as debt interest payments have risen sharply Source: ONS – Public Sector Finance Source: ONS – Public Sector Finance 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Government interest payments as a percentage of GDP, 1955/56 to 2022/23 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Percentage of GDP UK public sector net debt, percentage of GDP, financial year ending 1921 to August 2023 @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 8. Public sector net worth has continued to decrease, with the UK ranking lowly among advanced economies Source: ONS – Public Sector Finance Source: OBR, IMF -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Aug 2002 Aug 2005 Aug 2008 Aug 2011 Aug 2014 Aug 2017 Aug 2020 Aug 2023 Billion (£) UK public sector net worth, August 2002 to August 2023 PSND ex Other financial liabilities Illiquid financial assets Non-financial assets PSNFW ex PSNW ex -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Per cent of GDP Public sector net worth for advanced economies, 2021 Total assets Total liabilities Net worth @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 9. Disposable income has grown slightly in recent quarters, while households are saving more Source: ONS – Sector Accounts Source: ONS – GDP 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2000 Q1 2004 Q3 2009 Q1 2013 Q3 2018 Q1 2022 Q3 Households' saving ratio, Q1 2000 to Q2 2023 @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970 -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 2000 Q1 2004 Q3 2009 Q1 2013 Q3 2018 Q1 2022 Q3 Quarter-on-quarter change Real Households' disposable income per head, latest quarter-on-quarter, Q1 2000 to Q2 2023
  • 10. Projections suggest relatively weak growth and persistent inflation for the UK, among the G7 Source: IMF Source: IMF -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Germany United Kingdom Italy France Canada Japan United States Annual Growth GDP projected growth rates for G7, 2023 and 2024 2023 2024 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Inflation outturn and forecasts across the G7, 2019 to 2026 United Kingdom Canada France Germany Italy Japan United States @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 11. Conclusions • Headline inflation continues to fall, though core inflation is proving to be more persistent with only tentative falls in recent months • Against this backdrop of high inflation, GDP growth remains subdued • Public sector debt levels continue to increase, with the UK particularly exposed to increasing debt interest payments. @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 12. Office for National Statistics The role of labour costs and profits in UK inflation Stefan Ubovic @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 13. The three approaches to gross domestic product (GDP) Source: ONS Consumption + Investment + Government + Net exports Wages + Profits + ‘Other’ income + Net taxes Agriculture + Manufacturing + Construction + Service Expenditure approach Income approach Output approach = = GDP =  By dividing the income accounts by the volume of GDP, we can look at the contributions of labour costs, profits and net taxes to the movements in this implied price of GDP @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 14. Domestic inflation in the UK has increased in recent years owing to a higher contribution of labour costs and profits Source: ONS @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 15. In relative terms, income shares of labour costs and profits have not change much compared with their trend since 2000 Source: ONS % of GDP 2000 – 2009 2010 – 2019 H1 2023 Unit labour cost 49.5 48.7 49.0 Unit profits 21.6 22.2 22.8 Unit other income 17.7 17.1 18.5 Unit net taxes 11.1 12.1 9.7 Note: Labour costs comprised 54.9% of GDP over the period 1970 to 1979, while profits were 19.4% of GDP for the same period; Source: ONS Table 1: Labour costs and profits as a share of nominal GDP Source: ONS @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 16. Labour cost and profits contributions to domestic inflation in the UK are not markedly dissimilar to other G7 economies Source: OECD, ONS @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 17. Key takeaways  Domestic inflation has increased in the UK in recent years owing to higher contribution of labour costs and higher contribution of profits  In relative terms, the income shares of labour costs and profits have not changed much and remain broadly in line with their trend over the previous 25 years  The role of labour costs and profits in domestic inflation in the UK is not markedly different compared with other advanced economies @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 18. Green economy – recent publications Gemma Thomas and Alexandra Christenson
  • 19. Experimental estimates of green jobs Gemma Thomas
  • 20. Green jobs • Lots of interest in green jobs but limited understanding of the term, and differing estimates around it depending on definition and method • ONS has undertaken a project to define and measure green jobs • Released a definition in March 2023 after user engagement: “employment in an activity that contributes to protecting or restoring the environment, including those that mitigate or adapt to climate change” • Developed estimates using three approaches – industry, occupation and firm • Published experimental green jobs statistics on 27th Sept
  • 21. The energy efficient products and waste sectors accounted for around 40% of employment in green industries in 2020 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Employment, full time equivalent Employment in green jobs by activity, UK: 2015 to 2020 Energy efficient products Waste Repairs Water quantity Renewable energy Environmental charities Other Source: Office for National Statistics Notes: 1. Data is based on experimental estimates and is subject to revision as definition, methods and data sources are reviewed 2. The category “other” is obtained from combining the remaining 16 activities Jobs in green industries
  • 22. Source: Office for National Statistics, Opinions and Lifestyle Survey Notes: 1. Question: Would you describe any part of your job as a “green job”? 2. Base: All working adults within each region. Those who didn’t respond to the question have been excluded from the base. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Great Britain Scotland Wales England North East East Midlands West Midlands East of England North West London South West South East Yorkshire and The Humber Percentage of working adults who described any part of their job as green, by region, Great Britain, 4 to 29 May 2023 Working adults in Scotland and Wales were more likely to describe any part of their job as green than those in England (May 2023) Green occupations
  • 23. In 2021, almost half of employees worked in an industry that contributed less than 1% of total GHG emissions 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% Electricity and gas Manufacturing Transportation and storage Agriculture, forestry and fishing Water and waste management Mining and quarrying Wholesale and retail trade Construction Human health and social work activities Public administration Accommodation and food service Administrative and support service Education Professional, scientific and technical Arts, entertainment and recreation Other service activities Real estate activities Information and communication Financial and insurance activities Activities of households as employers Percentage of total greenhouse gas emissions (residence basis) and total employees by industry, UK, 2021 % of GHG Emissions % of Employees Source: Office for National Statistics Notes: 1. Employees refers to anyone aged 16 years or over that an organisation directly pays from its payroll(s), in return for carrying out a full-time or part-time job or being on a training scheme and excludes those who are self-employed, voluntary workers and working owners who are not paid through Pay As You Earn (PAYE). 2. Number of employees for activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods and services-producing activities of households for own use is not available. 3. The percentage of greenhouse gases has been calculated excluding emissions from households, so refers to percentage of total greenhouse gases produced by the economy. Jobs in green firms
  • 24. The electricity and gas industry produces 663 tonnes of greenhouse gases per employee 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Electricity and gas Mining and quarrying Agriculture, forestry and fishing Water and waste management Transport and storage Manufacturing Greenhouse gas emissions (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) per employee by industry, UK, 2021 Source: Office for National Statistics Notes: 1. Intensity has been calculated by dividing greenhouse gas emissions (residence basis, excluding emissions by households) by number of employees. 2. Employees refers to anyone aged 16 years or over that an organisation directly pays from its payroll(s), in return for carrying out a full-time or part-time job or being on a training scheme and excludes those who are self-employed, voluntary workers and working owners who are not paid through Pay As You Earn (PAYE). 3. Industries with intensity of less than 10 have been excluded from the chart; figures can be found in the accompanying dataset. Jobs in green firms
  • 25. Provisional estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in 2022 Alexandra Christenson
  • 26. Air emissions generated by UK economic activities are increasing after a fall during the pandemic • UK greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) (residence basis) increased by 2% between 2021 and 2022 (provisional) • Estimated that the UK emitted 512 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (co2e) in 2022 – 7% below pre-pandemic levels • 190 tonnes of CO2e emitted per million pounds produced (gross value added) 0.0 100,000.0 200,000.0 300,000.0 400,000.0 500,000.0 600,000.0 700,000.0 800,000.0 900,000.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Thousand tonnes of co2e UK greenhouse gas emissions – 2022 provisional
  • 27. Transport sector continues to increase post- pandemic • Largest increase in emissions observed in the Transport sector • Up 34% in 2022 compared with 2021, following a fall of 28% in 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic and a 9% decrease in 2021 • Consumer expenditure is the largest single contributor to UK emissions (25% of total in 2022) 0.0 50,000.0 100,000.0 150,000.0 200,000.0 250,000.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Thousand tonnes of co2e Top industry emitters – provisional 2022 estimates Consumer expenditure Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply Manufacturing Transport and storage
  • 28. What other measures of greenhouse gasses exists? • Residence – emissions from UK residents and UK registered businesses in the UK or abroad • Territorial – emissions occurring within the borders of the UK • Consumption/Footprint - emissions from the consumption spending of UK residents on goods and services, wherever in the world these emissions arise along the supply chain 0.0 200,000.0 400,000.0 600,000.0 800,000.0 1,000,000.0 1,200,000.0 Thousand tonnes of Co2e Comparison of the three GHG emissions measures (provisional residence and territorial emissions) Residence Territorial Consumption/Footprint
  • 29. Conclusion • Our latest estimates of green jobs show that UK employment in green industries was estimated to be 526,000 full time equivalent in 2020 • The energy sector produces the most emissions per employee, at around 663 tonnes of GHG emissions (CO2 equivalent) • Air emissions trending towards pre-pandemic levels These and other publications can be found on our Environmental Accounts page: Environmental accounts - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) Contact: environment.accounts@ons.gov.uk
  • 30. Annex
  • 31. Activities • Alternative fuels, including hydrogen • Bioenergy • Carbon capture and storage • Energy-efficient products • Energy saving and monitoring • Energy storage • Environmental charities • Environmental consultancy n.e.c. • Environmental-related education • Grid infrastructure • In-house environmental activities • Low carbon transport • Management of forests • Managerial activities of government bodies • Nature protection and restoration (excluding forests) • Nuclear power • Recycling • Renewable energy • Repairs • Waste • Wastewater • Water quantity
  • 32. Closing remarks Chair – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum Deputy Director Economic and Microdata Insights Office for National Statistics slido #37970
  • 33. Forthcoming ONS economic analysis 17 October 2023 Prices Theme Day 20 October 2023 Public Sector Finances, UK: September 2023 20 October 2023 Retail Sales, Great Britain: September 2023 23 October 2023 Private rental affordability, England: 2022 25 October 2023 UK Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES): provisional results 2022 26 October 2023 Business demography, quarterly experimental statistics, UK: July to September 2023 31 October 2023 UK Balance of Payments, The Pink Book: 2023 31 October 2023 UK National Accounts, The Blue Book: 2023 1 November 2023: Employee earnings in the UK: 2023 All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 34. Dates for your diary 24 October 2023 – Urban Natural Capital Accounts seminar 13 November 2023 – ONS Economic Forum Further details on the above event and any upcoming events will be published at ons.gov.uk/economicevents @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 35. Consultation on the future of population and migration statistics – closes 26 October 2023 On 29 June 2023, we launched a public consultation on our proposals for a transformed population and migration statistics system. These statistics cover a wide range of areas, including household characteristics, employment, health, religion and international migration. We welcome contributions from all users. This includes those who are experienced users of ONS’s statistics, through to those who are looking to use ONS population and migration data for the first time. We value everyone’s feedback. More information on the consultation can be found at consultations.ons.gov.uk/ or you can contact the ONS for further information about this consultation at: 2023consultation@ons.gov.uk @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #37970
  • 36. Thank you for attending the Economic Forum You can keep up to date on all upcoming events via ons.gov.uk/economicevents If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so via economic.engagement@ons.gov.uk

Editor's Notes

  1. Same time period??
  2. The industry approach includes all jobs in a green industries or sectors. In 2020, UK employment in green industries was estimated to be 526,000 full time equivalent 
  3. Our occupation-based approach measures all jobs that are "green" regardless of the industry they are in. In May 2023, around a quarter (27%) of working adults in Great Britain reported they would describe any part of their job as a "green job", based on our definition
  4. A firm-based approach to measuring green jobs would measure all jobs in firms classified as "green".