ONS Economic Forum 16 October 2023.

1. ONS Economic Forum
Chair – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury
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Deputy Director
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics

2. Agenda
• 09:30am – 09:35am Welcome and introduction – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, Deputy Director, Economic and
Microdata Insights, Office for National Statistics
• 09:35am – 09:50am State of the UK economy – Mike Keoghan, Direct General for Economic, Social and
Environmental Group, Office for National Statistics
• 09:50am – 10:00am The role of labour costs and profits in UK inflation – Stefan Ubovic, Office for National
Statistics
• 10:00am – 10:10am Experimental estimates of green jobs and provisional estimates of greenhouse gas
emissions – Gemma Thomas and Alexandra Christenson, Office for National Statistics
• 10:10am – 10:25am Questions and answers
• 10:25am – 10:30am Closing remarks – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, Deputy Director, Economic and Microdata
Insights, Office for National Statistics
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3. State of the UK Economy
October 2023
Mike Keoghan
Direct General for Economic, Social and
Environmental Group
Office for National Statistics
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4. Inflation seems set to continue falling as energy prices decrease
and underlying inflation shows tentative signs of easing
Source: ONS, Bank of England Source: ONS – Prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Percentage
Points
Contributions to CPI , January 2019 to December
2023
Services
Electricity and gas
Fuels and lubricants
Other goods
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
CPI
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
UK Inflation measures, January 2002 to August 2023
Core CPI
Service CPI
15% trim
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5. Market expectations of rising interest rates may be
tempered by lower inflation
Source: Bank of England Source: Bank of England, US Federal Reserve
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Outturn and market-implied path of interest rates,
January 2020 - September 2026
Outrun
May 2023 forecast (bank)
August 2023 forecast (bank)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
Per
cent
Nominal yield curves, 10-year gilts, UK and US, 4
January 2016 to 5 October 2023
UK
US
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6. Recent economic activity has been characterized by high
volatility
Source: ONS – Monthly GDP Source: ONS – Monthly GDP
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23
Change in monthly GDP, January 2022 - August 2023
Month/Month 3m/3m
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
Contributions to monthly GDP growth,
August 2022 - August 2023
Services Production Construction GDP
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7. Public sector net debt has reached a 70-year high as debt
interest payments have risen sharply
Source: ONS – Public Sector Finance Source: ONS – Public Sector Finance
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Government interest payments as a percentage of GDP,
1955/56 to 2022/23
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Percentage
of
GDP
UK public sector net debt, percentage of GDP,
financial year ending 1921 to August 2023
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8. Public sector net worth has continued to decrease, with
the UK ranking lowly among advanced economies
Source: ONS – Public Sector Finance Source: OBR, IMF
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Aug 2002 Aug 2005 Aug 2008 Aug 2011 Aug 2014 Aug 2017 Aug 2020 Aug 2023
Billion
(£)
UK public sector net worth, August 2002 to August
2023
PSND ex Other financial liabilities
Illiquid financial assets Non-financial assets
PSNFW ex PSNW ex
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Per
cent
of
GDP
Public sector net worth for advanced economies, 2021
Total assets Total liabilities Net worth
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9. Disposable income has grown slightly in recent quarters,
while households are saving more
Source: ONS – Sector Accounts Source: ONS – GDP
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2000 Q1 2004 Q3 2009 Q1 2013 Q3 2018 Q1 2022 Q3
Households' saving ratio, Q1 2000 to Q2 2023
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-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2000 Q1 2004 Q3 2009 Q1 2013 Q3 2018 Q1 2022 Q3
Quarter-on-quarter
change
Real Households' disposable income per head, latest
quarter-on-quarter, Q1 2000 to Q2 2023

10. Projections suggest relatively weak growth and
persistent inflation for the UK, among the G7
Source: IMF Source: IMF
-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Germany
United Kingdom
Italy
France
Canada
Japan
United States
Annual Growth
GDP projected growth rates for G7, 2023 and 2024
2023 2024
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Inflation outturn and forecasts across the G7, 2019 to
2026
United Kingdom
Canada
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
United States
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11. Conclusions
• Headline inflation continues to fall, though core inflation is
proving to be more persistent with only tentative falls in recent
months
• Against this backdrop of high inflation, GDP growth remains
subdued
• Public sector debt levels continue to increase, with the UK
particularly exposed to increasing debt interest payments.
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12. Office for National Statistics
The role of labour costs
and profits in UK
inflation
Stefan Ubovic
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13. The three approaches to gross domestic product (GDP)
Source: ONS
Consumption
+
Investment
+
Government
+
Net exports
Wages
+
Profits
+
‘Other’ income
+
Net taxes
Agriculture
+
Manufacturing
+
Construction
+
Service
Expenditure
approach
Income
approach
Output
approach = =
GDP =
 By dividing the income accounts by the volume of GDP, we can look at the contributions of
labour costs, profits and net taxes to the movements in this implied price of GDP
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14. Domestic inflation in the UK has increased in recent years
owing to a higher contribution of labour costs and profits
Source: ONS
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15. In relative terms, income shares of labour costs and profits
have not change much compared with their trend since 2000
Source: ONS
% of GDP 2000 – 2009 2010 – 2019 H1 2023
Unit labour cost 49.5 48.7 49.0
Unit profits 21.6 22.2 22.8
Unit other income 17.7 17.1 18.5
Unit net taxes 11.1 12.1 9.7
Note: Labour costs comprised 54.9% of GDP over the period 1970 to 1979, while profits
were 19.4% of GDP for the same period; Source: ONS
Table 1: Labour costs and profits as a share of nominal GDP
Source: ONS
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16. Labour cost and profits contributions to domestic inflation in
the UK are not markedly dissimilar to other G7 economies
Source: OECD, ONS
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17. Key takeaways
 Domestic inflation has increased in the UK in recent years owing to
higher contribution of labour costs and higher contribution of profits
 In relative terms, the income shares of labour costs and profits have
not changed much and remain broadly in line with their trend over the
previous 25 years
 The role of labour costs and profits in domestic inflation in the UK is
not markedly different compared with other advanced economies
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18. Green economy – recent
publications
Gemma Thomas and Alexandra Christenson

19. Experimental estimates of
green jobs
Gemma Thomas

20. Green jobs
• Lots of interest in green jobs but limited understanding of the term, and
differing estimates around it depending on definition and method
• ONS has undertaken a project to define and measure green jobs
• Released a definition in March 2023 after user engagement:
“employment in an activity that contributes to protecting or restoring
the environment, including those that mitigate or adapt to climate
change”
• Developed estimates using three approaches – industry, occupation and firm
• Published experimental green jobs statistics on 27th Sept

21. The energy efficient products and waste sectors accounted for around
40% of employment in green industries in 2020
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Employment,
full
time
equivalent
Employment in green jobs by activity, UK: 2015 to 2020
Energy efficient products Waste Repairs Water quantity Renewable energy Environmental charities Other
Source: Office for National Statistics
Notes:
1. Data is based on experimental estimates and is subject to revision as definition, methods and data sources are reviewed
2. The category “other” is obtained from combining the remaining 16 activities
Jobs in green industries

22. Source: Office for National Statistics,
Opinions and Lifestyle Survey
Notes:
1. Question: Would you describe any part
of your job as a “green job”?
2. Base: All working adults within each
region. Those who didn’t respond to the
question have been excluded from the
base.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Great Britain
Scotland
Wales
England
North East
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
North West
London
South West
South East
Yorkshire and The Humber
Percentage of working adults who described any part of their job as green, by region,
Great Britain, 4 to 29 May 2023
Working adults in Scotland and Wales were more likely to describe any
part of their job as green than those in England (May 2023)
Green occupations

23. In 2021, almost half of employees worked in an industry that contributed
less than 1% of total GHG emissions
0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00%
Electricity and gas
Manufacturing
Transportation and storage
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Water and waste management
Mining and quarrying
Wholesale and retail trade
Construction
Human health and social work activities
Public administration
Accommodation and food service
Administrative and support service
Education
Professional, scientific and technical
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Other service activities
Real estate activities
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Activities of households as employers
Percentage of total greenhouse gas emissions (residence basis) and total
employees by industry, UK, 2021
% of GHG Emissions % of Employees
Source: Office for National Statistics
Notes:
1. Employees refers to anyone aged 16
years or over that an organisation directly
pays from its payroll(s), in return for
carrying out a full-time or part-time job or
being on a training scheme and excludes
those who are self-employed, voluntary
workers and working owners who are not
paid through Pay As You Earn (PAYE).
2. Number of employees for activities of
households as employers; undifferentiated
goods and services-producing activities of
households for own use is not available.
3. The percentage of greenhouse gases has
been calculated excluding emissions from
households, so refers to percentage of
total greenhouse gases produced by the
economy.
Jobs in green firms

24. The electricity and gas industry produces 663 tonnes of greenhouse
gases per employee
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Electricity and gas
Mining and quarrying
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Water and waste management
Transport and storage
Manufacturing
Greenhouse gas emissions (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) per
employee by industry, UK, 2021
Source: Office for National Statistics
Notes:
1. Intensity has been calculated by dividing
greenhouse gas emissions (residence basis,
excluding emissions by households) by number
of employees.
2. Employees refers to anyone aged 16 years or
over that an organisation directly pays from its
payroll(s), in return for carrying out a full-time or
part-time job or being on a training scheme and
excludes those who are self-employed,
voluntary workers and working owners who are
not paid through Pay As You Earn (PAYE).
3. Industries with intensity of less than 10 have
been excluded from the chart; figures can be
found in the accompanying dataset.
Jobs in green firms

25. Provisional estimates of
greenhouse gas emissions in
2022
Alexandra Christenson

26. Air emissions generated by UK economic activities are
increasing after a fall during the pandemic
• UK greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)
(residence basis) increased by 2% between
2021 and 2022 (provisional)
• Estimated that the UK emitted 512 million
tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (co2e)
in 2022 – 7% below pre-pandemic levels
• 190 tonnes of CO2e emitted per million
pounds produced (gross value added)
0.0
100,000.0
200,000.0
300,000.0
400,000.0
500,000.0
600,000.0
700,000.0
800,000.0
900,000.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Thousand
tonnes
of
co2e
UK greenhouse gas emissions – 2022 provisional

27. Transport sector continues to increase post-
pandemic
• Largest increase in emissions observed
in the Transport sector
• Up 34% in 2022 compared with 2021,
following a fall of 28% in 2020 during the
coronavirus pandemic and a 9% decrease in
2021
• Consumer expenditure is the largest
single contributor to UK emissions (25%
of total in 2022)
0.0
50,000.0
100,000.0
150,000.0
200,000.0
250,000.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Thousand
tonnes
of
co2e
Top industry emitters – provisional 2022 estimates
Consumer expenditure Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
Manufacturing Transport and storage

28. What other measures of greenhouse gasses exists?
• Residence – emissions from UK
residents and UK registered
businesses in the UK or abroad
• Territorial – emissions occurring
within the borders of the UK
• Consumption/Footprint -
emissions from the consumption
spending of UK residents on
goods and services, wherever in
the world these emissions arise
along the supply chain
0.0
200,000.0
400,000.0
600,000.0
800,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,200,000.0
Thousand
tonnes
of
Co2e
Comparison of the three GHG emissions measures (provisional residence and territorial
emissions)
Residence Territorial Consumption/Footprint

29. Conclusion
• Our latest estimates of green jobs show that UK employment in green
industries was estimated to be 526,000 full time equivalent in 2020
• The energy sector produces the most emissions per employee, at around
663 tonnes of GHG emissions (CO2 equivalent)
• Air emissions trending towards pre-pandemic levels
These and other publications can be found on our Environmental Accounts
page: Environmental accounts - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
Contact: environment.accounts@ons.gov.uk

30. Annex

31. Activities
• Alternative fuels, including hydrogen
• Bioenergy
• Carbon capture and storage
• Energy-efficient products
• Energy saving and monitoring
• Energy storage
• Environmental charities
• Environmental consultancy n.e.c.
• Environmental-related education
• Grid infrastructure
• In-house environmental activities
• Low carbon transport
• Management of forests
• Managerial activities of government
bodies
• Nature protection and restoration
(excluding forests)
• Nuclear power
• Recycling
• Renewable energy
• Repairs
• Waste
• Wastewater
• Water quantity

32. Closing remarks
Chair – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum
Deputy Director
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics
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33. Forthcoming ONS economic analysis
17 October 2023 Prices Theme Day
20 October 2023 Public Sector Finances, UK: September 2023
20 October 2023 Retail Sales, Great Britain: September 2023
23 October 2023 Private rental affordability, England: 2022
25 October 2023 UK Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES): provisional results 2022
26 October 2023 Business demography, quarterly experimental statistics, UK: July to September 2023
31 October 2023 UK Balance of Payments, The Pink Book: 2023
31 October 2023 UK National Accounts, The Blue Book: 2023
1 November 2023: Employee earnings in the UK: 2023
All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website
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34. Dates for your diary
24 October 2023 – Urban Natural Capital Accounts seminar
13 November 2023 – ONS Economic Forum
Further details on the above event and any upcoming events will be published at
ons.gov.uk/economicevents
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35. Consultation on the future of population and
migration statistics – closes 26 October 2023
On 29 June 2023, we launched a public consultation on our proposals for a transformed
population and migration statistics system. These statistics cover a wide range of areas,
including household characteristics, employment, health, religion and international migration.
We welcome contributions from all users. This includes those who are experienced users of
ONS’s statistics, through to those who are looking to use ONS population and migration data
for the first time. We value everyone’s feedback.
More information on the consultation can be found at consultations.ons.gov.uk/ or you can
contact the ONS for further information about this consultation
at: 2023consultation@ons.gov.uk
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36. Thank you for attending the
Economic Forum
You can keep up to date on all upcoming events via
ons.gov.uk/economicevents
If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so
via economic.engagement@ons.gov.uk