Economic Forum
24 October 2022
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Welcome
Ed Palmer
Deputy Chief Economist
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics
@ONSfocus #economicforum

Working in collaboration with the
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Agenda
10:00 – 10:05 Welcome and Introduction – Ed Palmer, Deputy Chief Economist, Office for National
Statistics
10:05 – 10:20 Understanding the UK Economy – Ed Palmer, Deputy Chief Economist, Office for
National Statistics
10:20 – 10:35 ONS plans for subnational statistics – Libby Richards, Office for National Statistics
10:35 – 10:50 Q&A
10:50 – 11:05 Refreshment break with tea and coffee
11:05 – 11:20 Rebecca Riley, Associate Professor – Enterprise, Engagement and Impact and Business
Development Director WMREDI/City-REDI
11:20 – 11:35 Paul Forrest, Head of Research, Midlands Economic Forum
11:35 – 11:55 Q&A
11:55 – 12:00 Closing remarks – Ed Palmer, Deputy Chief Economist, Office for National Statistics
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Deputy Chief Economist
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics
State of the Economy
October 2022
Ed Palmer
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Inflationary pressures are becoming more broad
based
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
May 21 Aug 21 Nov 21 Feb 22 May 22 Aug 22
Inflation Expectations
1-year 5-year
Source: ONS – Consumer Prices Index September 2022 Source: Bank of England – Inflation Attitudes Survey
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CPI vs Core CPI, 12mth %change
CPI Core CPI
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The outlook for the public finances are uncertain
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27
Government debt forecast as a percentage of
national income (23rd September)
OBR March forecast IFS/citi
Source: HMT, Office for Budget Responsibility
Source: Office for Budget Responsibility and Institute for
Fiscal Studies
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
1989-90 1994-95 1999-00 2004-05 2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25
National account taxes, % of nominal GDP
Mini-budget policy as of 17th October OBR - March 2022
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Sterling has weakened against the dollar and gilt
yields have increased
Source: Bank of England
Source: Bank of England
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
UK gilts spot curves, Jan to Oct 2022
04 Jan 22 01 Apr 22 01 Jul 22 27 Sep 22 18 Oct 22
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
09/2020 01/2021 05/2021 09/2021 01/2022 05/2022 09/2022
Euro and GBP exchange rates against USD
EUR GBP
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The UK is a net importer of fuels and other goods
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Current Account, % GDP
-1.2%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net trade of oil and other fuels, %GDP
Oil Other fuels
Source: ONS – Balance of Payments
Source: ONS – Balance of Payments
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Real disposable incomes are being squeezed
Source: ONS – Quarterly Sector Accounts
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Savings Ratio
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Real household disposable income,
quarter on quarter change
Source: ONS – Quarterly Sector Accounts
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Economic inactivity has risen with long-term
sickness a particular driver
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
To improve my physical health
For a well-paid job
If my caring responsibilities change
To improve my mental health
Changes to my cost of living
For a job that suited my other responsibilities
or lifestyle
For a job that suited my skills and experience
For the social company or a job I would enjoy
For the money
Reasons over 50s would consider re-
entering workforce
50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 65
Source: ONS – Over 50s Lifestyle Survey
Source: ONS – Labour markets, August 2022
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
2020 2021 2022
vs
Oct-Dec
2019
Economic Inactivity
Student Looking after family / home
Temporary sick Long-term sick
Discouraged workers Retired
Other Economically inactive
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Growth is expected to fall back in 2023
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook (Oct 2022)
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook (Oct 2022)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
World United Kingdom United States Euro area
Real GDP growth projections
2022 2023
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
World United Kingdom United States Euro area
Inflation Projections
2022 2023
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Conclusions
• Inflationary pressures continue to impact upon the economy and public
finances
• Higher energy prices are leading to the UK being more reliant on external
financing for the time being
• IMF forecast GDP growth to fall back for the UK and other advanced
economies in 2023
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Deputy Director, ONS Local
Office for National Statistics
ONS plans for
subnational statistics
Libby Richards
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Contents
• Strategy and workplan
• Timely, granular subnational statistics and insight
• Improved dissemination and supporting local users
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Strategy and workplan
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GSS Subnational Data Strategy (December 21)
A framework to guide the GSS in producing and
disseminating more timely, granular and harmonised
subnational statistics, that meet user needs
Referenced in the Levelling Up White Paper as a key enabler in the Government’s ambition
to improve subnational data and improve transparency and accountability to the public

GSS Subnational Data Strategy ambitions
Produce more timely, granular and harmonised subnational statistics
Build capability and capacity for subnational statistics and analysis
Improve the dissemination of subnational statistics
Explore Subnational Statistics service

ONS Subnational Workplan
ONS committed to follow up the Strategy with a workplan
Published 16 May 2022
A cross-cutting overview of the wide range of new or improved subnational
outputs and initiatives, planned for the next 18 months, across the Office
A strong commitment for UK-wide coverage, where possible, enabled by
solid collaboration with the Devolved Administrations
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Timely, granular
subnational statistics
and insight
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Model-based early estimates of regional GVA
• Started publishing model-based
quarterly estimates of regional GVA
from October 2021 onwards
• Early indication of quarterly GDP,
published 5 months in advance
Source
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Productivity in towns and travel to work areas
• Experimental labour
productivity data for
TTWAs and towns made
available for the first time
in December 2021
• Complements existing
annual subregional
productivity release
Source
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Disaggregating annual subnational GVA to
lower levels of geography
• As part of the ONS strategy to provide more
granular data to our users
• Experimental statistics using granular
geographies as building blocks to derive GVA for
flexible geographies
• Improve our understanding of the local economy
• Provisional publication for second version Autumn
2022 Source
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Improved
Dissemination
27 October 2022
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Explore Subnational Statistics
• Announced in GSS subnational data strategy
• One-stop-shop for subnational data and statistics
• Standardised geographies and user-defined areas
• Prototyped as Subnational indicators explorer – second
iteration published in May 2022
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ONS Local
• Commitment outlined in the white paper
• A statistical advisory service for local leaders, with
dedicated analysts based in hubs across the UK,
ensuring they have access to data, statistics and
analysis to support decision making
• Analysts based in each region, drawing on support and
resource from across the office to act as a window onto
wider ONS developments and capability
• First iteration of service to be launched this winter
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Service offer – under development
Analytical
Teams will provide resource to scope and support analytical projects to provide
statistical insights that support decision making
Strategic
Using our unique
position within
central government
to understand,
identify, and align
priorities
for both local and
central decision
makers, alongside
capturing user
needs
Data
Connecting local users to key government datasets, whilst also looking for
opportunities where local data can add value to central decision making
Network
Establishing local partnerships with a range of external stakeholders to bring
together regional expertise, share knowledge, and draw on research capability
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Thank you for listening

Q&A

Break

Associate Professor Rebecca Riley
The West Midlands Regional Economic Development Institute
in THE EXCHANGE
ONS Birmingham Economic Forum

WMREDI in The Exchange
In Partnership with:

The West Midlands Economy – growth
• Total GVA in 2020 for Birmingham
was £25.8bn
• Projected GVA in 2040 is £37.4bn –
and additional £11.6bn
• Increase of 45% and annual yearly
growth rate of 1.89% slightly below
the UK at 1.96%
Source: Oxford Economics

The West Midlands Economy – cost of living
• Across the WMCA area 31.58% (519,273
households) of households are owned with
either a mortgage or loan
• Around 26% of households across the UK are
on a variable rate on their mortgages, if the
same average was applied to the WMCA
area, this would mean around 135,011 could
be facing large rises
• Rates could rise from 2.34% to 6%.
Homeowners could face additional £478 per
month or an additional £5,736 per year

The West Midlands Economy - Vacancies
• Estimated number of vacancies fell by
46,000 on the quarter to 1,246,000,
and are at their lowest since October
to December 2021
• The rate of quarterly growth fell to
negative 3.6% in July to September
2022, with growth falling in 13 of the
18 industry sectors. Information and
communication and other service
activities fell at the fastest rate, at
negative 16.6% and 16.0%,
respectively

The West Midlands Economy - PMI
• West Midlands Business Activity
Index decreased from 49.3 in
August 2022 to 47.8 in September
2022, the second month in a row to
register a decline (below the 50-
growth mark). Output has fallen at
its quickest pace since January
2021.
• New Business Index decreased from
48.5 in August 2022 to 46.0
• Export Climate Index increased from
48.5 in August 2022 to 49.0

Homelessness
We chose to base our predictions heavily on
what was known about the likelihood of people
to experience housing problems before the
pandemic onset and intertwine this knowledge
with recent data on how many people were
stricken by the crisis and its ripple effects.
Based on this analysis:
1. Coventry North East
2. Birmingham Ladywood
3. Birmingham Yardley
4. Birmingham Erdington
5. Birmingham Perry Bar.

Children in Trouble
Absolute low-income is defined as a
family whose equivalised income is
below 60% of the 2010/11.
There are 98k children in absolute
low income families in Birmingham
2019/20 according to DWP

Resources and networks in the region:
 CityREDI/WMREDI
 West Midlands Economic Monitor and State of the Region
 WM DataLab portal
 Midlands Engine Economic Observatory
 Network of academics and local partners - DREAM Group

ONS Birmingham Economic Forum
Factors Influencing West Midlands
Economic Performance
Presentation by:
Paul Forrest
West Midlands Economic Forum
Monday 24th October 2022
@WMEconomy

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@WMEconomy
Developing an Internationally Competitive Regional Economy:
• Control Coronavirus
• Recognise Structure of Regional Economy
• Enhance Connectivity Infrastructure
• Broadband
• Road
• Rail
• Air
• Sea
• Enhance Skills Base
• Boost Productivity through Automation & access to Finance & Capital
• Establish Trade links then Negotiate Agreements

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Paul Forrest
Head of Research, West Midlands Economic Forum
paul.forrest@westmidlandseconomicforum.co.uk
Tel: 07743 641 271
Mob: 07709 551 253
www.westmidlandseconomicforum.co.uk
Disclaimers
The analysis presented in this report accurately represents the personal assessment of the analyst(s) and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, or will be directly or indirectly related to the
inclusion of specific views in this report. Further information is available on request. The information contained, and any views expressed, herein are based on data currently available within the public
domain. The contents of this Report are not a substitute for specific advice and should not be relied on as such. Accordingly, whilst every care has been taken in the preparation of this publication, no
representation or warranty is made or given in respect of its contents and no responsibility is accepted for the consequences of any reliance placed on it by any person.
The Midlands Economic Forum is a neutral, independent forum bringing together representatives of the public, private and voluntary sectors to evaluate real trends in the local economy.

Q&A

Closing remarks
Ed Palmer
Deputy Chief Economist
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics

Forthcoming ONS economic analysis
31 October 2022 – UK National Accounts, The Blue Book: 2022
31 October 2022 – UK Balance of Payments, The Pink Book: 2022
All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website
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Dates for your diary
25 October 2022 – Understanding the cost of living through statistics, London
ESCoE Economic Measurement webinar series:
• 3 November 2022 - The Pros and Cons of Consumption- and Income-Based Measures of
Economic Well-being
• 1 December 2022 – Efficient Industrial Policy for Innovation: Standing on the Shoulders of
Hidden Giants
• 15 December 2022 – Measuring Subjective Wellbeing: Evidence from the UK Household
Longitudinal Study
Further details on the above event and any upcoming events will be published at
ons.gov.uk/economicevents
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Thank you for attending the
Economic Forum
You can keep up to date on all upcoming events via
ons.gov.uk/economicevents
If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so
via economic.engagement@ons.gov.uk