SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 17 July 2023.pptx

ONS Economic Forum
Chair – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #81533
Deputy Director
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics

Agenda
09:30am – 09:35am Welcome and introduction – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, Deputy Director, Economic
and Microdata Insights, Office for National Statistics
09:35am – 09:50am State of the UK economy – Grant Fitzner, Chief Economist, Office for National
Statistics
09:50am – 10:00am Time Use in the UK: Differences between the employed and economically inactive
– Lynsey Brown, Office for National Statistics
10:00am – 10:10am Impact of increased cost of living – David Ainslie and Caleb Ogwuru, Office for
National Statistics
10:10am – 10:25am Questions and answers
10:25am – 10:30am Closing remarks – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, Deputy Director, Economic and
Microdata Insights, Office for National Statistics

State of the UK Economy
July 2023
Grant Fitzner
Chief Economist
Director, Macroeconomic and
Environment Statistics and Analysis
@GrantFitzner

While monthly data has been noisy, GDP levels have flatlined
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Level of Monthly GDP,
January 2019 to May 2023, UK, 2019 = 100
Source: ONS – Monthly GDP Source: ONS – Monthly GDP
Platinum
Jubilee
QE2
Funeral
KC3
Coronation
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Jan-23 May-23
Change in Monthly GDP,
January 2022 to May 2023, UK, per cent
MoM % Rolling 3m average

Households are spending more to buy less, as household
bank deposits are being withdrawn
Source: ONS – Retail Sales
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
May 19 May 20 May 21 May 22 May 23
Value and volume of retail sales,
May 2019 to May 2023, 2019 = 100
Value Volume
-£5,000
£0
£5,000
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000
£30,000
31 Jan 18 31 Jan 19 31 Jan 20 31 Jan 21 31 Jan 22 31 Jan 23
Monthly changes of monetary financial
institutions' sterling M4 liabilities to
household sector (in sterling millions)
Source: Bank of England

Consumer confidence recovering, business concerns easing
Source: ONS – Business Insights and Conditions Survey
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
No concerns for the business
Property rental costs
Supply chain disruption
Exchange rates
Other
Business rates
Interest rates
Competition
Taxation
Not sure
Energy prices
Inflation
Falling demand
Business concerns by response option,
weighted by count, UK, Jan 2023 and July 2023
Jan-23
Jul-23
Source: Gfk Consumer Confidence Barometer
Note: Net balance between personal finance situation for
next 12 months minus personal finance sit’n last 12 months
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jun 19 Dec 19 Jun 20 Dec 20 Jun 21 Dec 21 Jun 22 Dec 22 Jun 23
UK Consumer Confidence,
June 2019 to June 2023
Net personal financial situation of households
(next 12 months minus last 12 months)
Index Score

Labour demand continues to slow and economic inactivity fall
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Dec to Feb 2020 Dec to Feb 2021 Dec to Feb 2022 Dec to Feb 2023
UK economic inactivity by reason, cumulative
change from Dec 019 to Feb. 2020, thousands
Student Looking after family or home
Temp sick Long-term sick
Discouraged workers Retired
Other Economically inactive (16 to 64)
Source: ONS – Vacancies and jobs in the UK, and Earnings
and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information
Note: Latest monthly employee number is a flash estimate
Source: ONS – Employment in the UK
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Jan
2016
Jan
2017
Jan
2018
Jan
2019
Jan
2020
Jan
2021
Jan
2022
Jan
2023
Job vacancies and payroll employee growth,
Jan 2016 to Jun 2023, UK, thousands and %
Payrolled employee growth (LHS)
Vacancies (RHS)

UK CPI remains elevated and is the highest in the G7
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Annual rates of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and
core CPI inflation, January 2019 to May 2023
Headline
15% trim
Median
Ex. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco
Services
Source: ONS – Consumer Prices Index and ONS calculations Source: ONS, OECD and US Bureau of Labor Statistics
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan 19 Jul 19 Jan 20 Jul 20 Jan 21 Jul 21 Jan 22 Jul 22 Jan 23
Annual rates of Consumer Price Inflation, G7
countries, Jan 2019 - Jun 2023
Canada Germany
France UK
Italy Japan
USA

Producer price inflation has slowed, pay growth may also ease
Source: ONS – Consumer Prices Index and Input
Producer Price Index
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Producer and Consumer price inflation,
UK, Jan 2019 to May 2023
Input PPI (advanced 4 months) (LHS)
CPI (RHS)
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2022 Q1 2023 Q1
(Bank staff
projections)
Contributions to annual private sector Average
Weekly Earnings regular pay growth
Unexplained
Productivity
Slack
Short-term inflation expectations
Private sector regular pay growth (per cent)
Source: ONS – Average Weekly Earnings and Bank of
England – Monetary Policy Report

UK net rate of return for manufacturing and services sectors
Source: ONS – Profitability of UK companies: October to December 2022
Seasonally adjusted net rate of return for UK companies split by manufacturing and services (excluding continental
shelf companies), Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2012 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 20

Conclusions
• While the UK economy may have narrowly managed to avoid a
recession over the past year, economic activity remains weak
• Despite cost of living and mortgage pressures, there are some signs
of improving consumer confidence and fewer business concerns
• Labour demand continues to slow and economic inactivity levels fall
• but both are still above their pre-pandemic levels
• Headline inflation remains elevated and is the highest in the G7
• With rising service prices offsetting falls in energy and goods prices
• However a slower pace of producer price inflation and pay growth, along with
a stronger pound, could help to curb future price pressures

Time Use in the UK:
Differences between the
employed and
economically inactive
Lynsey Brown
Head of Time Use Survey and Household Satellite Accounts
Crime, Income and Wealth Division
Public Policy Analysis Directorate

Why we collect time use data
“Importantly, GDP is not a measure of welfare and does not reflect
economic inequality or sustainability (environmental, financial, or
other)… Moreover, unpaid activities, home production and other
non-market services (with the exception of public services) are not
captured within the National Accounts.”
Professor Sir Charles Bean, Independent Review of Economic Statistics (2016)

How we collect time use data
• Representative sample of UK adults
• Participants issued two 24-hour
diaries and a demographic
questionnaire
• Respondents record main and
secondary activities
• Good quality diaries are weighted to
be representative of the UK adult
population
• Estimates presented here are based
on main activities only.

Among employed adults, time spent working
away from home and travelling has increased
Average daily time (hours) spent doing specified activities, employed adults aged 18 years and over,
Great Britain: 2020 and 2021, UK: 2022 and 2023
Source: Time Use Survey from the Office for National Statistics
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Personal care Travelling Working away
from home
Working from
home
Unpaid
childcare
Unpaid work
(excluding
childcare)
DIY or
gardening
Entertainment,
socialising, free
time
March 2020 March 2021 March 2022 March 2023

Average daily time (hours) spent doing specified activities, economically inactive adults aged 18 years and over,
Great Britain: 2020 and 2021, UK: 2022 and 2023
Source: Time Use Survey from the Office for National Statistics
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Personal care Travelling Working away
from home
Working from
home
Unpaid
childcare
Unpaid work
(excluding
childcare)
DIY or
gardening
Entertainment,
socialising, free
time
March 2020 March 2021 March 2022 March 2023
Among inactive adults, time spent on unpaid
work and personal care (incl. eating) increased

Employed men spent more time on paid work
while women spent more time on unpaid work
Proportion of time spent on daily activities over an average 24-hour period by adults aged 18 to 64 years:
by labour market status and sex, UK: March 2023
40
39
37
37
11
9
9
9
2
4
18
21
5
3
5
5
14
12
11
8
4
1
3
2
9
11
8
8
11
14
9
9
2
5
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Women, economically inactive
Men, economically inactive
Women, in employment
Men, in employment
Sleep and rest Personal care Paid work Travel Unpaid household work
Unpaid care Watching TV Entertainment and leisure Education and study Other activities

Lots of variation in time use among working age
economically inactive adults according to reason
Average daily time (hours) spent doing specified activities by economically inactive adults aged 18 to 64 years:
by reason for inactivity, UK: March 2023
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Personal care Paid work Travel Unpaid work
(excluding care)
Unpaid care Watching TV Entertainment
and leisure
Education and
study
Student Looking after the family or home Sick or disabled Retired

Older economically inactive people spent most
of their time doing unpaid work
Average daily time (hours) spent doing specified activities by economically inactive adults aged 18 to 64 years:
by age group, UK: March 2023
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Personal care Paid work Travel Unpaid work
(excluding care)
Unpaid care Watching TV Entertainment
and leisure
Education and
study
18 to 34 years 35 to 49 years 50 to 64 years

Future plans
• Collect time use data every six months (next survey in September 2023), working in
collaboration with the Centre for Time Use Research (CTUR) within the Economic Statistics
Centre of Excellence (ESCoE)
• Update the UK Household Satellite Account (a monetary measure
of the value of unpaid work activities) using existing methods with
estimates up to 2020 (August/September 2023)
• Develop new methods which incorporate the new time use data to produce estimates for
2020 onwards, with an ambition to produce the Household Satellite Account on a quarterly
basis in the future
In 2016, the value of the
UK’s unpaid household
work was estimated at
£1.24 trillion, equivalent
to 63% of GDP

More information
Time Use in the UK: March 2023, published 4th July 2023
Statistical bulletin and accompanying data tables, available at:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/timeuseintheukmarch2023
Contact:
Lynsey Brown
Head of Time Use Survey and Household Satellite Accounts
hhsa@ons.gov.uk

Impact of increased cost
of living on adults across
Great Britain: February to
May 2023
David Ainslie and Caleb
Ogwuru

Background: Opinions and Lifestyle Survey
• The Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN) is a fortnightly survey of individuals in
Great Britain
• Timely and relevant, the OPN is published biweekly using a sample of around
5,000 adults aged 16+
• Online data collection with a response rate of around 40%
• Representative of the GB population using weights based on key demographics
(Age, Sex, Region)
• Questions cover a range of topics including health, well-being, behaviours and
attitudes
• Meets the needs of many users, specifically policy priorities of Cabinet Office
and No.10 - public opinions and experiences of daily life and events, currently
including cost of living, health and well-being

9 in 10 adults say the cost of living is an
important issue facing UK society today
When asked “What do you think are important issues facing the UK
today?” adults in Great Britain reported:
92%
The cost of
living
85%
The NHS
73%
The Economy
64%
Climate Change
and the
Environment
2,156 adults interviewed between 28 June to 9 July 2023
Source: Public Opinions and Social Trends, ONS

Source: Public Opinions and Social Trends, ONS
The cost of living is consistently an issue
“What do you think are important issues facing the UK today?”
Base: Adults in Great Britain, October 2022 to July 2023
%

• These reported experiences reflect
inflation:
• Annual CPI currently at 8.7%
• Food and non-alcoholic beverage
prices rose by 18.4%, in the year to
May 2023
Source: Consumer price inflation, UK: May 2023, ONS
Why is this an important issue?

Latest impacts of cost of living
In our latest release, using Opinions and Lifestyle survey data for the period
8 February and 1 May 2023, we:
• updated regression analysis looking at general financial vulnerability
across different groups of the population
• updated analysis looking at groups of the population who report
experiencing difficulty affording rent, mortgage or food specifically
• explored peoples lived experience of increases in cost of living using
qualitative data

Source: Impact of increased cost of living on adults
across Great Britain: Feb to May 2023, ONS
Who is financially vulnerable?
Defining financial vulnerability
found it difficult
to afford their
energy
payments
unable to
save in the
next 12
months
unable to afford
an unexpected,
but necessary,
expense of
£850
had to borrow
more money
or use more
credit than
usual
Energy bills Savings
Unexpected
expense Borrowing
Base: Adults in Great Britain, 3 November 2021 to 9 July 2023

Around a quarter (24%) of Great Britain report financial
vulnerability - similar to during Winter (23% in September
to January 2022).
After controlling for other personal characteristics, we
found higher odds of vulnerability among renters,
younger adults, adults with low personal incomes and
disabled adults
Base: Adults in Great Britain, 8 February to 1 May 2023
• Renters had 4.7 higher odds and
mortgagers had 2.0 higher odds of
financial vulnerability compared to
those who own their home
• Renters on average spend a higher
proportion of income on rent (21%)
than mortgage holders on
mortgage (16%) per Living Costs
and Food Survey FYE 2022
• Mortgagers to an extent insulated
currently by being on fixed rate
deals

Base: Adults in Great Britain, 8 February to 1 May 2023
Other groups with higher odds of experiencing
financial vulnerability included:
• adults with lower incomes - those with an
annual income of up to £10,000 had higher
odds of experiencing financial vulnerability
(3.8x), compared with adults earning £50,000
or more per year
• adults aged 25 to 34 years (3.4 higher odds
compared with those aged 75 years and over)
• disabled adults (1.9 higher odds compared
with non-disabled adults)

We also updated analysis looking at people’s
experiences of difficulty affording their rent,
mortgage or food specifically.
Those more likely to report difficulties included the
following groups;
• Lone parent households
• Those receiving support from charities
• Those receiving benefits or financial support
• Asian or Asian British and Black, African,
Caribbean or Black British adults
Difficulty affording rent, mortgage or food

Lived experiences
“ I have friends and family who are struggling with
finding housing to rent that they can afford. A couple of
close friends are beginning to feel very tired […] unwell
and are at pension age but cannot afford to reduce their
working hours. Younger people I know are struggling
badly to find housing
Source: Impact of increases in cost of living on adults in
Great Britain: February to May 2023, ONS
“ With rising costs in rent and energy we have decided
to move home to a smaller place[…] the creeping cost
of living has taken its toll on us in a big way
“In your own words, tell us about your experiences with the increases in cost of living”
19 April to 1 May 2023
Five themes:
• “Well-being”
• “Government response”
• “Worry about others”
• “Shopping habits”
• “Inequality”

Summary
Renters, younger adults, those on low incomes and disabled adults among
groups more likely to be financially vulnerable
Lone parents, those receiving support from charities, receiving benefits or
financial support and Asian / Asian British or Black / Black British adults
among groups likely to be specifically having difficulty affording rent,
mortgage or food
Exploring peoples lived experience of increases in cost of living suggests
people worry about others well-being and widening inequality

More information and future work
Regular outputs:
• Impact of cost of living on adults in Great
Britain series (Quarterly)
• Public opinions and social trends series
(Fortnightly)
• Cost of Living Latest Insights
Email: policy.evidence.analysis@ons.gov.uk
Contacts: David Ainslie, Lili Chowdhury, Caleb
Ogwuru and Chris Jones

Household
characteristics
Parent status
Household
composition
Personal
demographics
Age group
Sex
Disability status
Ethnic group
Socioeconomic
characteristics
Employment
status
Highest
qualification
Housing
tenure
Personal
annual
income
Geographical characteristics
Region
Annex: Regression model information
Population of interest
Adults in Great Britain.
Dependent variable – composite measure of financial vulnerability (FV)
The outcome variable in the model is based on a composite of four financial
questions which derive financial vulnerability.
A person is considered to be financially vulnerable if they screened positive for
three or more of the four financial measures. By screening positive, we mean:
1. Being unable to afford an unexpected, but necessary, expense of £850
2. Borrowing more money or using more credit than usual compared to a year ago
3. Being unable to save in the next 12 months
4. Finding it very or somewhat difficult to afford energy bills.
What is different?
The respondent will now needed to have selected at least three of the above to
be considered financially vulnerable. In the first iteration, the respondent needed to
have selected at least two.
Independent variables – what factors did we look at?

Closing remarks
Chair – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum
Deputy Director
Economic and Microdata Insights
slido #81533

Forthcoming ONS economic analysis
17 July 2023 Gross domestic expenditure on research and development, UK: 2021
18 July 2023 Effects of taxes and benefits on UK household income: financial year ending 2022
19 July 2023 Prices Theme Day
24 July 2023 Foreign direct investment, business insights in the UK: January 2021 to January 2022
26 July 2023 Rising ill-health and economic inactivity due to long-term sickness, UK: 2019 to 2023
(Provisional)
27 July 2023 Housing Purchase Affordability, Great Britain: 2022
1 August 2023 Foreign direct investment and capital acquisitions, UK trends and analysis: 2021
(provisional)
All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website

Dates for your diary
18 September 2023 ONS Economic Forum
26 September 2023 Beyond GDP: international developments and emerging
frameworks
11 October 2023 GDP after 2025: updating national accounts and balance of
payments
12 October 2023 So what does ‘Beyond GDP’ mean for the UK
Registration for all the above events will open shortly and further information will be
published at ons.gov.uk/economicevents

Consultation on the future of population and
migration statistics
On 29 June 2023, we launched a public consultation on our proposals for a transformed population
and migration statistics system. These statistics cover a wide range of areas, including household
characteristics, employment, health, religion and international migration.
We welcome contributions from all users. This includes those who are experienced users of ONS’s
statistics, through to those who are looking to use ONS population and migration data for the first
time. We value everyone’s feedback.
More information on the consultation can be found at consultations.ons.gov.uk/ or you can contact
the ONS for further information about this consultation at 2023consultation@ons.gov.uk

Thank you for attending the
Economic Forum
You can keep up to date on all upcoming events via
ons.gov.uk/economicevents
If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so
via economic.engagement@ons.gov.uk

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