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ONS local webinar housing affordabilty March 23.pptx

  1. ONS housing affordability: latest data, new products, new research Tim Pateman Senior researcher Subnational Statistics and Analysis Division (SSA) ONS housing affordability
  2. ONS housing affordability Housing statistics available from many teams Housing Market Indices Housing Analysis Housing Coherence Admin based housing characteristics ONS housing teams DWP – housing benefit DLUHC – Live tables, analysis, EHS Personal and household projections Land Registry Valuation office agency + others England + UK Welsh Government Scottish Government National Records Scotland Dept. of Communities NI NI Housing Executive Dept. of finance NI Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland Cross-government housing and planning statistics work programmes UK housing and plannings statistics interactive dashboard
  3. Products I’m covering in this webinar Release Coverage & geography Concept Test Housing affordability (inherited from DLUHC) England and Wales, to local authority level HPSSA house prices / ASHE individual earnings Homes sold in an area are 5 times the earnings of people who work there Housing purchase affordability England to regional level, Wales, Scotland HPPSA house prices / HFS household incomes Homes sold in an area are 5 times household income Private rental affordabilty England to regional level, Wales, NI PRMS / admin data rents / FRS income of renting households An area’s rents are 30% of an area’s income The dream is to get household level data ONS housing affordability
  4. ONS housing affordability Questions and queries to… - Housing Analysis Team e.g. Tim Pateman – ONS Local housing lead
  5. ONS housing affordability Housing affordability in England and Wales: 2022 • Annual, released 22 March • Compares prices of homes sold in each LA / county / region / country to the local workplace-based earnings • Bulletin comes with interactive content • Produced for LAs existing in March 23 + those 2014-21 Workplace-based earnings, all dwellings Workplace-based earnings, new dwellings Workplace-based earnings, existing dwellings Residence-based earnings, all dwellings Residence-based earnings, new dwellings Residence-based earnings, existing dwellings
  6. ONS housing affordability Local authorities by region interactive chart
  7. Mapping affordability, house prices, and earnings over time Local authority areas whose housing cost less than 5 times workers’ earnings: 1997 - 270 2020 - 27 2022 - 23 ONS housing affordability
  8. Do areas with lower earnings translate into lower house prices? Region Local Authority House price, £ Workplace -based earnings, £ Affordability 2022 North West Copeland 129,950 45,300 2.87 North West Barrow-in-Furness 136,250 34,800 3.92 North West Hyndburn 122,000 29,900 4.08 North East Hartlepool 125,000 30,300 4.12 North East County Durham 120,000 27,700 4.34 Wales Neath Port Talbot 143,750 32,800 4.38 North East Middlesbrough 130,000 29,600 4.39 ONS housing affordability
  9. ONS housing affordability Recent changes - local • Parts of Greater Manchester and Wales have seen the greatest house price increases in the past few years • Statistical digest rural England shows urban / rural differences are increasing • General London commuter effect continues to affect affordability in areas within easy reach or adjacent to London • Residence and workplace earnings not showing obvious effects of the increase in home working yet
  10. ONS housing affordability Latest changes - national
  11. ONS housing affordability Impact of covid-19 – house prices • Stamp Duty / Land Transaction Tax changes late 2021 • Sales decreasing, increasing in late 2021, then decreasing to below average again • No specific data collection effects documented; but lots of shifting trends
  12. ONS housing affordability Impact of covid-19 – earnings • Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) estimates were affected by changes in composition of the workforce and the impact of furlough (the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme) • Data collection was disrupted • Response rates were lower for 2020 and 2021 While house prices are driving the trends; there is greater volatility in the local estimates because earnings is drawn from a survey. See bulletin and Quality and Methodology Information report.
  13. Media reaction ONS housing affordability
  14. ONS housing affordability Housing purchase affordability GB: 2021 • Annual, released 28 July • Compares deciles of equivalised disposable household income to same prices of sold houses as ‘housing affordability’ • Bulletin analyses time series and deciles • Tables give house prices, incomes, and then each price decile compared with each income decile for England, Wales, Scotland and English regions
  15. ONS housing affordability Income useful, but patterns comparable to earnings •in England, £275,000 for median house price and £31,800 for median income, which is equivalent to a ratio of 8.7 years of income •in Wales, £176,000 for median house price and £29,400 for median income, which is a ratio of 6.0 years of income •in Scotland, £166,000 for median house price and £30,300 for median income, which is a ratio of 5.5 years of income
  16. Deciles add useful nuance ONS housing affordability
  17. ONS housing affordability Private rental affordability, England, Wales and Northern Ireland: 2021 • Annual, released 18 December • Monthly rent estimates are compared with the gross monthly incomes of private renting households for the same country or region, • Bulletin provides lots of regional comparisons • Tables showing quartiles of rents, quartiles of incomes, and comparing each to each by country and region
  18. ONS housing affordability Comparing rents and incomes • England - £730 monthly rent was the equivalent of 26% of an average household income of £2,825 per month • Wales - £550 monthly rent was the equivalent of 23% of an average household income of £2,350 • Northern Ireland - £600 monthly rent was the equivalent of 23% of an average household income of £2,605
  19. Countries fall below this affordability measure; regions vary ONS housing affordability
  20. ONS housing affordability Substantial variability between different income groups
  21. Broad conclusions • Income is the key trend with private-rental affordability – lower income households have poor affordability for many years and across countries/ regions • Meanwhile purchasing a home has changed, with house prices changing very substantially relative to earnings in most parts of England and Wales • Some area’s housing markets are more affordable and/or more homogenous than others – mainly Scotland and the North East; but pockets of the North West and Wales are also least unaffordable. A ‘commuter geography’ affects south East, East and potentially other areas, especially for lower earners. ONS housing affordability
  22. ONS housing affordability Changes we anticipate • ONS household projections project 7.1% more households in England between 2018 and 2028 (160,000 a year) • I expect housing tenure to continue to become more heterogenous – fewer in owner occupation with a mortgage, more in private rent or owning outright • Cost of living impacts are expected to emerge – but once it affects whole groups of households, for a whole year
  23. New ONS cost of living release & housing Survey analysis, by tenure: • Expenditure - ‘How increases in housing costs impact households’ • Financial vulnerability ‘Impact of increased cost of living on adults across Great Britain’ • What actions people have taken 'What actions are people taking because of the rising cost of living?' • Worries: 'Worries about the rising costs of living, Great Britain' Compilations - ‘The cost of living, current and upcoming work’ series - The ‘cost of living’ insights tool' ONS housing affordability
  24. ONS housing affordability Other releases to be aware of Insulation and Energy Efficiency of Housing in England and Wales 2022 (3rd of May 2023) • Covers subnational distribution of roof and wall insulation ratings • investigates energy efficiency trends over the past 10 years
  25. ONS housing affordability Subnational tenure estimates • Annual, released 27 February The tenure distribution differs in local authorities – this chart shows the LA with the highest percentage on each tenure, and their distribution. • Comparison piece to be published in May, comparing these estimates to Census 2021 data to assess quality.
  26. ONS housing affordability Census 2021 Topic summaries • Housing • Communal establishment residents • People with second addresses Census Maps Upcoming releases • Household data available on cantabular • March 30th: Data at the dwelling level, with comparison to 2011. • May 19th: Tenure by household characteristics.
  27. Energy efficiency of dwellings in your area Energy efficiency of housing in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics ( • Research Questions include: At a local level.. - How energy efficient are properties? - What is the main fuel type used for central heating? - Are there differences in energy efficiency by housing variables including property type/age Pilot project of the Integrated Data Service (IDS) - Involve stakeholders VOA, Welsh Government, BEIS, DLUHC, Ordinance Survey ONS housing affordability
  28. Analytical lessons • Devolution makes things tricky – with OSR’s help we’re working towards a set of UK measures • We have been told a range of simple measures is more useful than fewer complex academic-style measures • Looking at household income deciles and/or by housing tenure, can show very strong trends, that really affect people’s lives (as can cutting data by tenure) ONS housing affordability
  29. ONS housing affordability We’re always keen to hear more on… • Which housing affordability stats / visualisations do you use, and for what purpose? In general: • What platforms would you like to use to obtain housing stats? • What UK –level stats are missing? • What other geographies, beyond LA, are useful?
  30. ONS housing affordability Come and talk to us! – ONS Local housing lead Cross-government housing and planning statistics work programmes UK housing and plannings statistics interactive dashboard