Externalities, Global Warming
            Effects



    Y. Matsuki
    August 14, 2009, at 15:00 a.m.
    Presented at th...
Basic approaches for estimating the
global climate change impacts are?
  Estimate the CO2 and other
  greenhouse gas emiss...
Potential impacts of global warming
  Response of vegetation
  Increases in crops and forest growth
  associated with enha...
Potential impacts of global warming
  Marine and coastal environments
  Natural landscapes and ecosystems
  Human health
 ...
Response in vegetation
 Is quantitative response function for
 temperature well established?
 No.
 Are potential CO2-tempe...
Increases in crops and forest
growth associated with enhanced
atmospheric CO2 concentration
 What is it?
 Beneficial effec...
Response of agriculture
 Positive impact
 Drought, flood
 High interest rates, low price,
 changing consumer preference
 A...
Response of managed forest and
grasslands
 Do trees more ability to adapt?
 No. Trees have long lifetime, so less
 adaptab...
Response of water resources
 Regional change in precipitation
 Impacts on surface/ground water
 Are these easy to quantify...
Response of marine and coastal
environment
 Are they adaptive?
 No, least adaptive options exist.
 Nature is slower in ada...
Response of natural landscapes and
ecosystems
  Are successful adaptation likely for
  them?
  No. Less likely.
  Because
...
Response to human health
 Remarkably adaptable?
 Change distribution of disease, and
 indirect health impacts.
 Industrial...
Economic valuation of impacts of
global climate change
  Estimates of economic damages by
  Nordhaus and Cline
  Illustrat...
Estimate of economic damages by
Nordhaus and Cline
 Cline – only market effect
   Doubling CO2, 2.5°C temperature rise
   ...
Illustrative estimates of damages
  Reilly and Richards
  Global warming potential index
    On agricultural impacts estim...
Summary of estimates from several
studies
 Fankhauser --- the best?
   240,000 deaths annually from all global
   warming ...
Uncertainty in estimates


  Non-market impacts
  Sensitivity of damage estimates to
  different assumption
    Time paths...
Global Warming Effects
Global Warming Effects
Global Warming Effects
Global Warming Effects
Global Warming Effects
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Global Warming Effects

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AACIMP 2009 Summer School lecture by Yoshio Matsuki. "Environmental Externalities of Energy Options - Basics and Applications" course. 6th hour.

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Global Warming Effects

  1. 1. Externalities, Global Warming Effects Y. Matsuki August 14, 2009, at 15:00 a.m. Presented at the NTUU “KPI”
  2. 2. Basic approaches for estimating the global climate change impacts are? Estimate the CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions Use these estimates in a global climate model to estimate the global temperature rise Use the temperature rise in an effects (impacts) model to estimate the possible impacts and damage
  3. 3. Potential impacts of global warming Response of vegetation Increases in crops and forest growth associated with enhanced atmospheric CO2 concentration Response of agriculture Response of managed forest and grasslands Water resources
  4. 4. Potential impacts of global warming Marine and coastal environments Natural landscapes and ecosystems Human health Industry and energy Coastal settlements and structures Importance of adaptation
  5. 5. Response in vegetation Is quantitative response function for temperature well established? No. Are potential CO2-temperature interactions in plant response understood? No, even more poorly understood. One more important issue? Water, moisture
  6. 6. Increases in crops and forest growth associated with enhanced atmospheric CO2 concentration What is it? Beneficial effect of the global warming. Fertilizer effect – mitigate the impact - Positive effect on agriculture Indirect effect – weed, pest, insect Others – nitrogen and other nutrients
  7. 7. Response of agriculture Positive impact Drought, flood High interest rates, low price, changing consumer preference Adaptation? Out put in 2030 – Cline – 10% loss Kane 13,000 million USD, Adam 34,000 million USD
  8. 8. Response of managed forest and grasslands Do trees more ability to adapt? No. Trees have long lifetime, so less adaptable then agricultural crops. Young trees may be. But middle aged trees are problem. How the forests in future look? Different. – Musselman and Fox
  9. 9. Response of water resources Regional change in precipitation Impacts on surface/ground water Are these easy to quantify? No. Adaptive project – what are they? Dams, canals Engineered improvement in efficiency of crops, tech. innovation in industry.
  10. 10. Response of marine and coastal environment Are they adaptive? No, least adaptive options exist. Nature is slower in adapting than human. What are the adaptive measure of Sea level rise? Dykes and sea walls However, ecological and economic impacts Is sea level rise fast? Rather slow. --- general view
  11. 11. Response of natural landscapes and ecosystems Are successful adaptation likely for them? No. Less likely. Because Time scale of global climate change is rapid then the nature’s Isolation of natural ecosystem by agricultural and urban land.
  12. 12. Response to human health Remarkably adaptable? Change distribution of disease, and indirect health impacts. Industrialized countries - adaptable Poorer countries
  13. 13. Economic valuation of impacts of global climate change Estimates of economic damages by Nordhaus and Cline Illustrative estimates of damages Summary of estimates from several studies Uncertainty in estimates
  14. 14. Estimate of economic damages by Nordhaus and Cline Cline – only market effect Doubling CO2, 2.5°C temperature rise Without aggressive policy, additional 7.5°C above 2.5°C, doubling CO2 in 300 years. Non linear damage function from 10°C back to 2.5°C warming. Nordhaus – with non-market effect Summary is in the next Tale XXVI. Reilly and Richards point out: Cline and Nordhaus point to a loss of World GDP about 1%
  15. 15. Illustrative estimates of damages Reilly and Richards Global warming potential index On agricultural impacts estimated by Kane Fertilization benefits
  16. 16. Summary of estimates from several studies Fankhauser --- the best? 240,000 deaths annually from all global warming impacts Value of statistical life = 0.1 million USD Hohmeyer and Gartner Less moisture in soil lower the agriculture 45 million deaths per year from starvation alone Value of statistical life = 1 million USD
  17. 17. Uncertainty in estimates Non-market impacts Sensitivity of damage estimates to different assumption Time paths of emissions Improve understanding on economic damages.

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