3. Physical and Environmental Factors including Climate
Ecological Factors
Humans
Wildlife
Animals
E I D
Social, Political, and Economic Factors
Genetic and Biological Factors
Convergence Model
4. Infectious Disease Ecology
Accelerating prevention, control, & elimination of ecology-mediated microbial threats
•
Systems approach with cross-cutting themes
•
Global approach
Animal Health
Human Health
Ecosystem Health
6. Global average temperature
Global average sea level
Northern hemispheresnow cover
Changes in temperature, sea level and northern hemisphere snow cover
Direct observations of recent climate change (IPCC, 2007)
7. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health*
Food
Coastal flooding
Infectious Dx
AirQuality
Heat
Civil conflict
Climate change effects:
•
Temperature
•
Sea level
•
Precipitation
•
Extreme events
Malnutrition
Displacement
Morbidity/mortality
Respiratory diseases
Direct effects
Morbidity/mortality/ displacement
Drought
Water
* Excludes major impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems
8. Equity
Some regions will be more affected than others:
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The Arctic (ice sheet loss, ecosystem changes)
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Sub-Saharan Africa (water stress, reduced crops)
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Small islands (coastal erosion, inundation)
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Asian mega-deltas (flooding from sea and rivers)
Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable:
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Coral reefs, marine shell organisms
–
Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean regions
–
20-30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinction
9. Predicting the Effects of Climate Change
•
Incomplete knowledge and few long-term studies
•
Ecological cycles are complex and vary between regions
•
Many confounding factors of human origin
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Land-use patterns
–
agricultural and industrial development
–
water management
–
cultural and behavioral factors, etc.
•
Many global changes appear to be occurring (Sutherst 2004 and others)
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Climate
–
Atmospheric composition
–
Urbanization
–
Land use, landcover, and biodiversity
–
Trade and travel
–
Civil unrest and unstable governments
–
Other factors
•
Global climate change likely to present emerging disease threats
Assessing effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases
Source: Data from Chan et al. 1999; Figure in Gubler et al. 2001
10. Public Health Responseto Climate Change
•
Modeling and long-termecological and epidemiological research on influence of environmental changes on disease cycles
•
Strengthen public health infrastructure to improve measures to reduce the spread of disease or disease vectors and hosts
•
Enhanced surveillance
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Human cases in previously disease-free areas
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Introduction of new vectors, hosts, or pathogens
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Changing transmission patterns recognition and response
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Identify potential vulnerable populations
•
Preparedness: Review, evaluate and prepare countermeasures (vaccines, therapeutic agents, insecticides, etc.)
•
Training & Education: PH workforce
11. Key technologies to reduce emissions
•
Efficiency; fuel switching; renewable (hydropower,solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; nuclear power; early applications of CO2 capture and storage
•
More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels;modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning
•
Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and aircodition; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances
Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available
Buildings
Transportation
Energy Supply
12. Key policies to reduce emissions
•
Appropriate incentives for development of technologies
•
Changes in lifestyle and behavior patterns, especially in building, transport and industrial sectors
•
Effective carbon price signal to create incentives to invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes
•
Appropriate energy infrastructure investment decisions, which have long term effects on emissions
