This document discusses estimating in software development. It makes the following key points in 3 sentences: Estimating is a learned skill and should be focused on improving, as most projects will require estimates for clients. Estimates are not always wrong or waste, and even a small amount of estimating can provide more value than no estimating at all. The document advocates for estimating at the right level of detail, adapting estimates over time, and focusing on honest, assumption-based estimating done with team input to minimize risks from anchoring biases.

1. Terry Bunio
#YesEstimates
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2. @tbunio
tbunio@protegra.com
agilevoyageur.com
www.protegra.com

5. I believe in #NoEstimates and estimating!

6. Confused?

7. There definitely are biases to be aware
of…
Estimates are a learned skill – shouldn’t we
focus on ways to improve?
Given that most of us will need to estimate
for clients

8. 1. Not all estimates are wrong
2. Not all estimates are waste
3. Estimates are not just guessing
4. A small amount of estimates returns more
value than not estimating at all

9. Estimating is BDUF?

10. LDUF
• I’m a fan of LDUF
– A Little Design Up Front
– Includes a little estimating
• Estimating doesn’t have to mean BDUF
– You can choose the level of design and
estimating

11. Waste
• It is only waste if the client derives no
value from it
• Is anything that isn’t code waste ?
– Not necessarily
– Clients ultimately decide

12. Are Estimates Commitments?
• Estimates should change through out the
project
• What is a “commitment” ?

13. Think it through

14. Think it through
• Having to provide an estimate provides a
stronger impetus for thinking it through
• Without this requirement, there will
probably be less time spent and
increased possibility of rework
– High level solution architecture – like high
level estimate
– LDUF

15. Known #Noestimating issues
Bad Leadership

16. Bad Leadership
• If estimates can’t change and they are
commitments that are abused, then that is
just bad leadership
• If they didn’t have estimates, they would
find something else to abuse
• Find a company where management
views themselves as part of the team, not
separate from them

17. Bad Leadership

18. Good Leadership

19. Reality
• Vast Majority of projects require
estimates
– Especially government and regulated
industries
• Vast Majority of people are on more than
1 project
– Requires estimates to plan for competing
priorities and shared resources

20. Surgery

21. Anchors

22. Still Anchoring
• Careful
– Anchoring is not unique to estimates
• Even without estimates you will still be
anchoring
– To iteration length and Velocity
• May cause additional features to be
incorporated or removed
– Especially if we did not discuss details as part
of an estimating discussion

24. Still Estimating
• Counting is still estimating/forecasting
– You are forecasting based on team history
instead of team estimating expertise
– I’d prefer to do both!!!

25. What then should we do?

26. Learn

27. Estimate
• Estimate at the right level
– Deliverable level
– Never task level
• Adapt and adjust
• Become comfortable with conflict
– Say no I can’t estimate and here is what I
need to know to be able to estimate

28. Project #1
Use Points

29. Multiple projects over 1+ year
Count

30. - Estimate the least amount
required at the highest possible level
- Delivery frequently and update
estimates as required
- Talk about estimates frequently to
the team and to the client
- Don’t estimate if you don’t have
enough information
Minimize Estimate Inventory!

31. Like Predicting the Weather?

32. Top 5 things
1. Be honest at all times
2. Friends don’t let friends estimate alone
3. Ask for more information if you need it
to estimate
1. Don’t just say you can’t estimate. Let them
know why you cant.
2. You can also create assumptions
1. Make sure you believe in your assumptions
1. See Rule 1!

33. Top 5 things
4. Estimate in discrete numbers for things in
the near future, provide ranges for things
further away
5. Take pride in your estimates and ensure
they have the same quality as other
deliverables

34. Questions?