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woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
Battery and Non-Battery Cost Trends:
Where’s the Floor?
Mitalee Gupta
Analyst, Energy Storage
@MitaleeGupta
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
Presentation Overview
• Storage System Price Trends
• Road to $100/kWh battery prices and technology trends
• Balance of System cost trends – what are the drivers?
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
U.S. Energy Storage Annual Deployments will reach 3.9 GW by 2023
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
83 46 65
227 231 215
338
3,856
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Energystoragedeploymentsbysegment
(MW)
Residential Non-Residential Front-of-the-Meter
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
-16% -16%
-29%
-26%
-15%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Annualsystempricedecline(%)
Storage system prices have declined by more than 60% in the last
six years
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
43%
50%
58%
57%
50%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
30-minute
System
2-hour
System
4-hour
System
2018EStorageSystem
PriceStack(%)
Battery price BOS cost
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
Pace of battery price decline and BOS cost reductions will slow down
in the future
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
YoYpricedecline(%)
Battery price BOS cost
Phase 1: Battery
price reductions
were the primary
driver for system
price declines
Phase 2: Extreme
reductions in BOS
costs drove down
system prices by more
than 25%
Phase 3: Continued reductions in battery prices
and BOS costs are driven by production ramp-
up, growing competition and improvements in
system design and engineering
Phase 4: As the storage market
matures, both battery prices and
BOS costs will continue to decline
but the rate will be lower post-
2020, with improvements arising
from experience
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
Battery Prices and Technology Trends
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
Lithium-ion batteries are leading the pack today
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Technologycost($/kWh)
Cumulative U.S. installed capacity as of Q2 2018 (MW)
Lithium Ion Lead Acid Sodium Chemistries Flywheel Flow
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
Battery price forecast: Getting to $100/kWh mark by 2027
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
$219
$39
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$/kWh
$100/kWh
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
CellManufacturing(GWh)
China Germany France Hungary Japan Poland
South Korea Sweden USA Turkey Australia Unknown
How will we get there?
1. Ramping up global battery production
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
NMC
1:1:1
NMC
6:2:2
NMC
8:1:1
Li-S
Solid
State
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039
EnergyDensity(Wh/kg)
Next generation
catches, anodes
and electrolytes
Low cobalt cathodes
How will we get there?
2. Improving energy density
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
 Low cobalt/High nickel cathodes  Solid state electrolytes & Non-graphite anodes
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
Balance-of-system Cost Trends
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
Energy storage BOS vendor ecosystem is becoming increasingly crowded
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
Power Electronics
Vendors
Energy Storage
Management System
Vendors
Energy Storage System
Vendors
Energy Storage System
Project Developers
Non-
Residential
Segment
Utility-Scale
Segment
Containerization
Vendors
Energy Storage System
EPC Vendors
Residential
Segment
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
InverterCost($)
Central Inverter DC-DC Converter Multi-port Hybrid Inverter
Storage Inverter costs will significantly drive BOS cost reductions in the future
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
Storage system design and architectures are evolving
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
0.0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Deployments(MW)
Solar-plus-storage deployments Other storage deployments
PV Inverter
Storage Inverter
AC-Coupled
DC-DC
Converter
PV Inverter
DC-Coupled
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
Software is the “Alfred” of energy storage
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
EnergyStorageManagementSoftwareCost
($/kW)
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2.5 MWh 5 MWh 10 MWh 15 MWh 20MWh 25MWh 30MWh
2018EBOSCost($/kW)
Concrete Enclosure Metal Enclosure
Are we moving towards more centralized storage systems?
The differential between turnkey BOS costs for systems with concrete enclosures versus metal enclosures
increases with energy capacity of the system
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
Low- $1,200
Low - $850
High - $1,675
High - $1,450
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
Front-of-the-meter (2-hour)
Q4 2018
Front-of-the-meter (2-hour)
2020E
Q42018systempriceranges($/kW)
Front-of-the-meter storage system price forecast
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
Low - $1,700
Low - $1,375
High - $2,600
High - $2,200
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Front-of-the-meter (4-hour) Q4
2018
Front-of-the-meter (4-hour)
2020E
Q42018systempriceranges($/kW)
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
Behind-the-meter system prices have a significant room for soft cost
reductions
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
Low - $2,050
Low - $1,450
High - $3,800
High - $2,750
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
Residential Non-Residential
Q42018systempriceranges($/kW)
woodmac.comTrusted intelligence
Thank You!
Questions?
Mitalee Gupta
Analyst, Energy Storage
Mitalee.gupta@woodmac.com

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Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables Breakfast Briefing II: Battery and Non-Battery Cost Trends - Where's the Floor?

  • 1. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence Battery and Non-Battery Cost Trends: Where’s the Floor? Mitalee Gupta Analyst, Energy Storage @MitaleeGupta
  • 2. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence Presentation Overview • Storage System Price Trends • Road to $100/kWh battery prices and technology trends • Balance of System cost trends – what are the drivers?
  • 3. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence U.S. Energy Storage Annual Deployments will reach 3.9 GW by 2023 Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables 83 46 65 227 231 215 338 3,856 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E Energystoragedeploymentsbysegment (MW) Residential Non-Residential Front-of-the-Meter
  • 4. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence -16% -16% -29% -26% -15% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Annualsystempricedecline(%) Storage system prices have declined by more than 60% in the last six years Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables 43% 50% 58% 57% 50% 42% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 30-minute System 2-hour System 4-hour System 2018EStorageSystem PriceStack(%) Battery price BOS cost
  • 5. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence Pace of battery price decline and BOS cost reductions will slow down in the future Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E YoYpricedecline(%) Battery price BOS cost Phase 1: Battery price reductions were the primary driver for system price declines Phase 2: Extreme reductions in BOS costs drove down system prices by more than 25% Phase 3: Continued reductions in battery prices and BOS costs are driven by production ramp- up, growing competition and improvements in system design and engineering Phase 4: As the storage market matures, both battery prices and BOS costs will continue to decline but the rate will be lower post- 2020, with improvements arising from experience
  • 7. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence Lithium-ion batteries are leading the pack today Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables $- $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Technologycost($/kWh) Cumulative U.S. installed capacity as of Q2 2018 (MW) Lithium Ion Lead Acid Sodium Chemistries Flywheel Flow
  • 8. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence Battery price forecast: Getting to $100/kWh mark by 2027 Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables $219 $39 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $/kWh $100/kWh
  • 9. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E CellManufacturing(GWh) China Germany France Hungary Japan Poland South Korea Sweden USA Turkey Australia Unknown How will we get there? 1. Ramping up global battery production Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
  • 10. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence NMC 1:1:1 NMC 6:2:2 NMC 8:1:1 Li-S Solid State 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 EnergyDensity(Wh/kg) Next generation catches, anodes and electrolytes Low cobalt cathodes How will we get there? 2. Improving energy density Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables  Low cobalt/High nickel cathodes  Solid state electrolytes & Non-graphite anodes
  • 13. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence Energy storage BOS vendor ecosystem is becoming increasingly crowded Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables Power Electronics Vendors Energy Storage Management System Vendors Energy Storage System Vendors Energy Storage System Project Developers Non- Residential Segment Utility-Scale Segment Containerization Vendors Energy Storage System EPC Vendors Residential Segment
  • 14. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E InverterCost($) Central Inverter DC-DC Converter Multi-port Hybrid Inverter Storage Inverter costs will significantly drive BOS cost reductions in the future Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
  • 15. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence Storage system design and architectures are evolving Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables 0.0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E Deployments(MW) Solar-plus-storage deployments Other storage deployments PV Inverter Storage Inverter AC-Coupled DC-DC Converter PV Inverter DC-Coupled
  • 16. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence Software is the “Alfred” of energy storage Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables $- $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E EnergyStorageManagementSoftwareCost ($/kW)
  • 17. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence $- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 2.5 MWh 5 MWh 10 MWh 15 MWh 20MWh 25MWh 30MWh 2018EBOSCost($/kW) Concrete Enclosure Metal Enclosure Are we moving towards more centralized storage systems? The differential between turnkey BOS costs for systems with concrete enclosures versus metal enclosures increases with energy capacity of the system Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables
  • 18. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence Low- $1,200 Low - $850 High - $1,675 High - $1,450 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 Front-of-the-meter (2-hour) Q4 2018 Front-of-the-meter (2-hour) 2020E Q42018systempriceranges($/kW) Front-of-the-meter storage system price forecast Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables Low - $1,700 Low - $1,375 High - $2,600 High - $2,200 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 Front-of-the-meter (4-hour) Q4 2018 Front-of-the-meter (4-hour) 2020E Q42018systempriceranges($/kW)
  • 19. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence Behind-the-meter system prices have a significant room for soft cost reductions Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables Low - $2,050 Low - $1,450 High - $3,800 High - $2,750 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 Residential Non-Residential Q42018systempriceranges($/kW)
  • 20. woodmac.comTrusted intelligence Thank You! Questions? Mitalee Gupta Analyst, Energy Storage Mitalee.gupta@woodmac.com