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Wildfire and climate change –
a hazy outlook?
Iain Colin Prentice
Imperial College London
Director, The Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires,
Environment and Society
Basic principles
• Primary production => fuel builds up
• Hot and dry weather => fuel dries
• Ignition source => fuel starts to burn
Most fires don’t spread.
Ignition isn’t “the cause” of fire.
Crops and grazing can stop fires spreading.
To make valid predictions we need…
• Data
• Models
• Skill (models should predict the data – at
least!)
What do we have?
• A very short (< 20 years) global record, with
large differences between “products”
• Models based on limited evidence, with large
differences between models
• Models with limited skill at predicting the
data we have
Model responses to fuel and moisture
Teckentrup et al. (2019) Biogeosciences
Model responses to population
Teckentrup et al. (2019) Biogeosciences
suppression -> duration suppression -> size
ignition -> probability of fire start
Models vs data: half full or half empty?
Forkel et al. (2019)
Biogeosciences
Charcoal over 2000 years
Marlon et al. (2008) Nature Geoscience
Charcoal, biomass-burning
CH4 and temperature
Harrison et al. (2018)
Earth System Dynamics
Recent downward trend
Andela et al.
(2017) Science
Science directions
• Improvement of data products
• Improvement of models, especially for
vegetation properties
• New mechanisms needed, to ensure real
progress in either field!
Policy dimensions
Wildfire is not going away, and will increase in
many regions!
1) Address climate change (but not by planting
trees!)
2) Re-think insurance and spatial planning –
flammable vegetation and people don’t mix!

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Wildfire-Workshop-Presentation-Colin-Prentice

  • 1. Wildfire and climate change – a hazy outlook? Iain Colin Prentice Imperial College London Director, The Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society
  • 2. Basic principles • Primary production => fuel builds up • Hot and dry weather => fuel dries • Ignition source => fuel starts to burn Most fires don’t spread. Ignition isn’t “the cause” of fire. Crops and grazing can stop fires spreading.
  • 3. To make valid predictions we need… • Data • Models • Skill (models should predict the data – at least!)
  • 4. What do we have? • A very short (< 20 years) global record, with large differences between “products” • Models based on limited evidence, with large differences between models • Models with limited skill at predicting the data we have
  • 5. Model responses to fuel and moisture Teckentrup et al. (2019) Biogeosciences
  • 6. Model responses to population Teckentrup et al. (2019) Biogeosciences suppression -> duration suppression -> size ignition -> probability of fire start
  • 7. Models vs data: half full or half empty? Forkel et al. (2019) Biogeosciences
  • 8. Charcoal over 2000 years Marlon et al. (2008) Nature Geoscience
  • 9. Charcoal, biomass-burning CH4 and temperature Harrison et al. (2018) Earth System Dynamics
  • 10. Recent downward trend Andela et al. (2017) Science
  • 11. Science directions • Improvement of data products • Improvement of models, especially for vegetation properties • New mechanisms needed, to ensure real progress in either field!
  • 12. Policy dimensions Wildfire is not going away, and will increase in many regions! 1) Address climate change (but not by planting trees!) 2) Re-think insurance and spatial planning – flammable vegetation and people don’t mix!