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Whodunit: How Scientists Discovered
Global Warming
Presented by:
Joe Morris, PMP
joe@rocketscitech.com
Object of this Presentation
To explain the science behind Global Warming so that
you can better understand where scientists are coming
from.
2
Global Warming (GW) vs Climate
Change (CC) according to NASA
 Global Warming: The induced rise in Earth’s average
surface temperature due to man-made greenhouse
gases
 Climate Change: The induced rise in Earth’s average
surface temperature due to natural climate cycles
with little or no impact from humans
3
4
4
Who believes this past mild winter in
Buffalo is due to Global Warming?
Climate Patterns: El Nino and
La Nina
5
Global Warming and Climate
 The effects of Global Warming must be
superimposed over climate effects
 Because of this, effects of Global Warming
are sometimes not obvious, and may seem
contradictory
 Example: In Buffalo Global Warming can lead
to more extreme lake effect storms because
the lakes don’t freeze due to warmer
temperatures
6
Greenhouse Effect 7
Global Warming History
 Greenhouse effect traces back to 19th century which
included a belief the oceans could absorb all excess
greenhouse gases
 1950s brought new electronics instrumentation and
computers
 Provided data on the true nature of the greenhouse effect
 Roger Ravelle discovered a limit to how much CO2 the
oceans could absorb
 1960s-1970s development and introduction of GW
via computer models
 More data from NASA and others supporting GW
 Opposition firmed up (e.g., climategate)
8
Global Climate Models
 A simulation vs a model
 A computer model is a small scale
representation of something on a computer
 A representation of object or system of interest,
usually in two or three dimensions
 Equations provide mathematical representations
of physical processes
 Physical variables such as pressure, temperature,
density, humidity are included in the processes
9
Computer Models Are Used to
Create Simulations
10
Model Simulation
http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/welcome.
html
Evolution of Climate Models 11
The finer the grid (increasing # of grid points) the more
accurate the calculation but calculation time increases
Current Models 12
• Grid of the Earth 100 km horizontal and 20 vertical levels
with as many as 500,000 variables
• To calculate one year of climate change requires 2.5M
grid points iterated 27,000 times (recalculated 27,000
times until a solution is reached)
• Several months of computer time to run a 50-year
projection
Computing power of supercomputers is the limiting factor
Computer Model Results 13
http://ircamera.as.arizona.edu/NatSci102/NatSci102/lectures/venus.htm
Global Warming simulations consistently show temperature
rise due to increasedgreenhouse gases
Interpreting Model Results:
Where Is the Supporting Data
 Data gathered since 1960 is for a short
period compared to geological history
 Where is the data to calibrate the models?
 How do current CO2 levels and temperature
compare with historical and geological
norms?
 How do we prove that it’s man-made gases
influencing climate change?
14
Whodunit
How to find climate data going back
thousands or millions of years
15
16
What Do These Shows Have in
Common?
 Corpse
 Autopsy
 DNA/Fingerprints
 Other chem and physical analysis (fibers, gun
baliistics, etc.)
 Live clue gathering (Interviews, etc.)
 Team hypothesizing (brainstorming)
 Aha!
17
Proxy Corpses 18
Isotopes: Climate History DNA
and Fingerprint Proxies
19
Proxy Corpse Icepack
• Trapped air can be used to
measure CO2 levels
• Ice in glaciers have less 18 O than
seawater
• Proportion of 18O changes with
temperature
• Ice cores: Decrease in 18O reflects
drop in air temperature
20
Proxy Corpse Sea
Fossilized Seashells
18O/16O in calcium carbonate in shells reflect
water temperature
21
Proxy Corpse Trees 22
Tree rings showing 900 year history in
the Mediterranean Basin
• Plants prefer 12C. The 13C/12C
ratio in plants is lower than the
atmospheric 13C/12C ratio
• Fossil fuels are made up
ofprimarily dead plants
• Ratio of 13C/12C can be used to
determine influence from fossil
fuels
Measured atmosphere 13C/12C ratio has been decreasing since the
industrial revolution due to land clearance and fossil fuels
What the Scientists Discovered
 Highest atmospheric CO2 levels for hundreds of
thousands of years
 CO2 levels have increased more than 30% since
1960
 10X average temperature rise since 1960 without
sun influence
 No attributable natural causes have been identified
for the rise in these two parameters
 Models predict continued increase in average
temperature and long-term climate impacts from
increased greenhouse gases
 Will take decades to obtain verification and
confirmation
23
Global Warming Impacts 24
GW vs CC? Why Care?
 Similarities: Both require a response to their
long-term impacts.
 e.g., response to long term effects such as the
polar ice caps melting and ocean flodding will be
the same
 Prime Difference: With Global Warming we
can act to head off some of those effects.
 e.g., move to slow polar ice cap melting by
reducing fossil fuel usage dramatically
25
Impact of GW on Buffalo
 More superstorms
and increased lake
effect storms
 Summers like
southern Fla, avg
temp rise 5-10OF
26
My Take on Global Warming
I FIND THE SCIENTIFIC DATA TO BE
OVERWHELMING IN THE SUPPORT OF THE
PREMISE THAT MAN-MADE GREENHOUSE GASES
ARE RAISING CO2 AND OTHER GREENHOUSE
GASES, THEREBY CAUSING A RISE IN THE
EARTH’S AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
27
Why the Debate Is So Difficult
 Relying on a few decades of data and inference
of temperature and CO2 history. Laymen don’t
understand the efforts by scientists to gather
data from the past
 Computer models are still a work in progress
 Arguments between scientists are difficult for
laymen to follow
 May take decades for 100% verification
 Taking action will involve some economic
dislocations
28
Opposition Tactics: “The Sky is Blue”
 Doubter: “The Sky Is Not Blue”
 Scientists’ Initial Response: “Can’t you see it? Just look at it.”
 Doubter’s Response: “No. I’m color blind.”
 Scientists’ Response: “Well, everyone else who isn’t color blind
can see it.”
 Doubter’s Response: “How do you know that you’re really
seeing blue? How do you know that something in our diets
isn’t impacting our color perception?”
 Scientists’ Response: “Neurologists say that isn’t true. They’ve
conducted studies to show we see the real blue.”
 Doubter’s Response: “They’re all conspiring because it would
be embarrassing to them to admit they hadn’t picked this up
on their own. The government is also involved because of the
cost of changing all those American flags to the real blue.”
29
The Battle over Lead in Gasoline
in the 1960s
30
• Scientist discovered a dangerous rise in lead in the
atmosphere from lead in gasoline in 1962-1963
• Opposed by the petroleum companies with scientists of
their own
• Dueling scientists in front of Congress
• Lead wasn’t officially banned until1998
• Saving grace: introduction of catalytic converter to
reduce smog forced elimination of lead in 1975
• They’re doing the exact same thing again, except no
miraculous intervention like the platinum catalytic
convertor to save our butts
• Check out Cosmos Episode 7 “Clean Room” for more
details
Three Potential Conclusions to
the Global Warming Debate
 Global warming does not exist. What we’re
seeing are just short term weather variations. No
action required
 Climate change is real but human influences are
minor or non-existent. Nothing can be done to
avoid the change. Action required to mitigate
effects such as sea rise and coastal flooding
 Global warming is real. Action required to avoid
some of the changes and then to mitigate those
that occur
31
Impact of Choices We Make
 What happens if we take action such as
reducing fossil fuel usage and GW turns
out not to be real?
 What happens if we don’t take action and
GW is real? Can we afford to wait until we
have all the answers?
 Which has the worse consequences? The
long-term worldwide climatic changes vs
the short-term disruption of gas and oil,
electric generation, and transportation
industries
32
We Can’t Afford to Wait
 The potential long-term impacts of GW to Earth
and her inhabitants far outweigh the near-term
impacts to the economy by responding to GW
now
 Moving to renewables will create some
economic disruptions but will grow existing and
new industries: i.e., one man’s risk is another’s
opportunity
33
Henry Ford, Manure, and
Creative Destruction
 In 1900: >100,000 horses in New York City
 Thousands of workers toiled daily to clean up 3000
tons of manure and urine
 Automobile offered potential solution but:
 Get a Horse!
 Automobile companies failing
 Along came Henry Ford
34
Along Came Henry Ford
 Revolutionized cars with the introduction of the
Model T
 Paid works a higher wage so they could afford to
buy a Model T
 Result: a $1.5 trillion industry worldwide
 What happened to the workers who cleaned up the
manure?
 Think paving roads and building cars
 What happened to buggy whip makers?
 Either went out of business or learned how to build
car seats
35
Moving forward in the 21st
century
 Fossil fuels powered the 20th century
 Fossil fuels companies are the buggy whip
makers of the 21st century
 It’s time to move to 21st century energy with
renewables
36
When it comes down to it, it’s
all about what kind of world
we want to leave our kids,
grandkids, and great-
grandkids
37
Questions?
Discussion?
38

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Whudunit: How Scientists Discovered Global Warming

  • 1. Whodunit: How Scientists Discovered Global Warming Presented by: Joe Morris, PMP joe@rocketscitech.com
  • 2. Object of this Presentation To explain the science behind Global Warming so that you can better understand where scientists are coming from. 2
  • 3. Global Warming (GW) vs Climate Change (CC) according to NASA  Global Warming: The induced rise in Earth’s average surface temperature due to man-made greenhouse gases  Climate Change: The induced rise in Earth’s average surface temperature due to natural climate cycles with little or no impact from humans 3
  • 4. 4 4 Who believes this past mild winter in Buffalo is due to Global Warming?
  • 5. Climate Patterns: El Nino and La Nina 5
  • 6. Global Warming and Climate  The effects of Global Warming must be superimposed over climate effects  Because of this, effects of Global Warming are sometimes not obvious, and may seem contradictory  Example: In Buffalo Global Warming can lead to more extreme lake effect storms because the lakes don’t freeze due to warmer temperatures 6
  • 8. Global Warming History  Greenhouse effect traces back to 19th century which included a belief the oceans could absorb all excess greenhouse gases  1950s brought new electronics instrumentation and computers  Provided data on the true nature of the greenhouse effect  Roger Ravelle discovered a limit to how much CO2 the oceans could absorb  1960s-1970s development and introduction of GW via computer models  More data from NASA and others supporting GW  Opposition firmed up (e.g., climategate) 8
  • 9. Global Climate Models  A simulation vs a model  A computer model is a small scale representation of something on a computer  A representation of object or system of interest, usually in two or three dimensions  Equations provide mathematical representations of physical processes  Physical variables such as pressure, temperature, density, humidity are included in the processes 9
  • 10. Computer Models Are Used to Create Simulations 10 Model Simulation http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/welcome. html
  • 11. Evolution of Climate Models 11 The finer the grid (increasing # of grid points) the more accurate the calculation but calculation time increases
  • 12. Current Models 12 • Grid of the Earth 100 km horizontal and 20 vertical levels with as many as 500,000 variables • To calculate one year of climate change requires 2.5M grid points iterated 27,000 times (recalculated 27,000 times until a solution is reached) • Several months of computer time to run a 50-year projection Computing power of supercomputers is the limiting factor
  • 13. Computer Model Results 13 http://ircamera.as.arizona.edu/NatSci102/NatSci102/lectures/venus.htm Global Warming simulations consistently show temperature rise due to increasedgreenhouse gases
  • 14. Interpreting Model Results: Where Is the Supporting Data  Data gathered since 1960 is for a short period compared to geological history  Where is the data to calibrate the models?  How do current CO2 levels and temperature compare with historical and geological norms?  How do we prove that it’s man-made gases influencing climate change? 14
  • 15. Whodunit How to find climate data going back thousands or millions of years 15
  • 16. 16
  • 17. What Do These Shows Have in Common?  Corpse  Autopsy  DNA/Fingerprints  Other chem and physical analysis (fibers, gun baliistics, etc.)  Live clue gathering (Interviews, etc.)  Team hypothesizing (brainstorming)  Aha! 17
  • 19. Isotopes: Climate History DNA and Fingerprint Proxies 19
  • 20. Proxy Corpse Icepack • Trapped air can be used to measure CO2 levels • Ice in glaciers have less 18 O than seawater • Proportion of 18O changes with temperature • Ice cores: Decrease in 18O reflects drop in air temperature 20
  • 21. Proxy Corpse Sea Fossilized Seashells 18O/16O in calcium carbonate in shells reflect water temperature 21
  • 22. Proxy Corpse Trees 22 Tree rings showing 900 year history in the Mediterranean Basin • Plants prefer 12C. The 13C/12C ratio in plants is lower than the atmospheric 13C/12C ratio • Fossil fuels are made up ofprimarily dead plants • Ratio of 13C/12C can be used to determine influence from fossil fuels Measured atmosphere 13C/12C ratio has been decreasing since the industrial revolution due to land clearance and fossil fuels
  • 23. What the Scientists Discovered  Highest atmospheric CO2 levels for hundreds of thousands of years  CO2 levels have increased more than 30% since 1960  10X average temperature rise since 1960 without sun influence  No attributable natural causes have been identified for the rise in these two parameters  Models predict continued increase in average temperature and long-term climate impacts from increased greenhouse gases  Will take decades to obtain verification and confirmation 23
  • 25. GW vs CC? Why Care?  Similarities: Both require a response to their long-term impacts.  e.g., response to long term effects such as the polar ice caps melting and ocean flodding will be the same  Prime Difference: With Global Warming we can act to head off some of those effects.  e.g., move to slow polar ice cap melting by reducing fossil fuel usage dramatically 25
  • 26. Impact of GW on Buffalo  More superstorms and increased lake effect storms  Summers like southern Fla, avg temp rise 5-10OF 26
  • 27. My Take on Global Warming I FIND THE SCIENTIFIC DATA TO BE OVERWHELMING IN THE SUPPORT OF THE PREMISE THAT MAN-MADE GREENHOUSE GASES ARE RAISING CO2 AND OTHER GREENHOUSE GASES, THEREBY CAUSING A RISE IN THE EARTH’S AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE 27
  • 28. Why the Debate Is So Difficult  Relying on a few decades of data and inference of temperature and CO2 history. Laymen don’t understand the efforts by scientists to gather data from the past  Computer models are still a work in progress  Arguments between scientists are difficult for laymen to follow  May take decades for 100% verification  Taking action will involve some economic dislocations 28
  • 29. Opposition Tactics: “The Sky is Blue”  Doubter: “The Sky Is Not Blue”  Scientists’ Initial Response: “Can’t you see it? Just look at it.”  Doubter’s Response: “No. I’m color blind.”  Scientists’ Response: “Well, everyone else who isn’t color blind can see it.”  Doubter’s Response: “How do you know that you’re really seeing blue? How do you know that something in our diets isn’t impacting our color perception?”  Scientists’ Response: “Neurologists say that isn’t true. They’ve conducted studies to show we see the real blue.”  Doubter’s Response: “They’re all conspiring because it would be embarrassing to them to admit they hadn’t picked this up on their own. The government is also involved because of the cost of changing all those American flags to the real blue.” 29
  • 30. The Battle over Lead in Gasoline in the 1960s 30 • Scientist discovered a dangerous rise in lead in the atmosphere from lead in gasoline in 1962-1963 • Opposed by the petroleum companies with scientists of their own • Dueling scientists in front of Congress • Lead wasn’t officially banned until1998 • Saving grace: introduction of catalytic converter to reduce smog forced elimination of lead in 1975 • They’re doing the exact same thing again, except no miraculous intervention like the platinum catalytic convertor to save our butts • Check out Cosmos Episode 7 “Clean Room” for more details
  • 31. Three Potential Conclusions to the Global Warming Debate  Global warming does not exist. What we’re seeing are just short term weather variations. No action required  Climate change is real but human influences are minor or non-existent. Nothing can be done to avoid the change. Action required to mitigate effects such as sea rise and coastal flooding  Global warming is real. Action required to avoid some of the changes and then to mitigate those that occur 31
  • 32. Impact of Choices We Make  What happens if we take action such as reducing fossil fuel usage and GW turns out not to be real?  What happens if we don’t take action and GW is real? Can we afford to wait until we have all the answers?  Which has the worse consequences? The long-term worldwide climatic changes vs the short-term disruption of gas and oil, electric generation, and transportation industries 32
  • 33. We Can’t Afford to Wait  The potential long-term impacts of GW to Earth and her inhabitants far outweigh the near-term impacts to the economy by responding to GW now  Moving to renewables will create some economic disruptions but will grow existing and new industries: i.e., one man’s risk is another’s opportunity 33
  • 34. Henry Ford, Manure, and Creative Destruction  In 1900: >100,000 horses in New York City  Thousands of workers toiled daily to clean up 3000 tons of manure and urine  Automobile offered potential solution but:  Get a Horse!  Automobile companies failing  Along came Henry Ford 34
  • 35. Along Came Henry Ford  Revolutionized cars with the introduction of the Model T  Paid works a higher wage so they could afford to buy a Model T  Result: a $1.5 trillion industry worldwide  What happened to the workers who cleaned up the manure?  Think paving roads and building cars  What happened to buggy whip makers?  Either went out of business or learned how to build car seats 35
  • 36. Moving forward in the 21st century  Fossil fuels powered the 20th century  Fossil fuels companies are the buggy whip makers of the 21st century  It’s time to move to 21st century energy with renewables 36
  • 37. When it comes down to it, it’s all about what kind of world we want to leave our kids, grandkids, and great- grandkids 37