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• Dimension of Returns
• Diversification
• Investor Discipline
Why Pillar Capital?
Dimensions of Returns
• The capital markets have rewarded long-term investors
• Dimensions point to differences in expected returns
• Portfolios can be structured to pursue dimensions
2
The Capital Markets Have Rewarded
Long-Term Investors
3
Monthly growth of wealth ($1), 1926–2015
In US dollars. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. US Small Cap
Index is the CRSP 6–10 Index; US Large Cap Index is the S&P 500 Index; Long-Term Government Bonds Index is 20-year US government bonds; Treasury Bills are One-Month US Treasury bills; Inflation is the Consumer Price Index.
CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. University of Chicago. Bonds, T-bills, and inflation data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation
Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).
$16,743 US Small Cap Index
$5,386 US Large Cap Index
$135 Long-Term
Government Bonds Index
$21 Treasury Bills
$13 Inflation (CPI)
2015
Dimensions of Expected Returns
4
Expected returns are driven by prices investors pay and cash flows they expect to receive
To be considered a
dimension of expected return,
a premium must be:
• Sensible
• Persistent across time periods
• Pervasive across markets
• Robust to alternative
specifications
• Cost-effective to capture in
well-diversified portfolios
Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. 1. Relative price as measured by the price-to-book ratio; value stocks are those with lower price-to-book ratios.
2. Profitability is a measure of current profitability, based on information from individual companies’ income statements.
DIMENSIONS POINT TO SYSTEMATIC DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED RETURNS
EQUITIES
Company Size
Small cap premium—small vs. large companies
Market
Equity premium—stocks vs. bonds
Relative Price1
Value premium—value vs. growth companies
Profitability2
Profitability premium—high vs. low profitability companies
Dimensions of Expected Returns
5
Historical premiums and returns (annualized): US, Developed ex US, and Emerging Markets
Information provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP.
US size premium: Dimensional US Small Cap Index minus S&P 500 Index. US relative price premium: Fama/French US Value Index minus Fama/French US Growth Index. US profitability premium: Dimensional US High
Profitability Index minus Dimensional US Low Profitability Index. Dev. ex US size premium: Dimensional Intl. Small Cap Index minus MSCI World ex USA Index (gross div.). Dev. ex US relative price premium: Fama/French
International Value index minus Fama/French International Growth Index. Dev. ex US profitability premium: Dimensional International High Profitability Index minus Dimensional International Low Profitability Index.
Emerging Markets size premium: Dimensional Emerging Markets Small Cap Index minus MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div.). Emerging Markets relative price premium: Fama/French Emerging Markets Value Index
minus Fama/French Emerging Markets Growth Index. Emerging Markets profitability premium: Dimensional Emerging Markets High Profitability Index minus Dimensional Emerging Markets Low Profitability Index.
Profitability is measured as operating income before depreciation and amortization minus interest expense scaled by book. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses
associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an
actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. See “Index Descriptions” for descriptions of Dimensional and Fama/French index data. Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors for and provide
consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved.
Profitability
Relative performance of
high profitability stocks
vs.
low profitability stocks
(%)
Company Size
Relative performance of
small cap stocks vs.
large cap stocks (%)
Relative Price
Relative performance of
value stocks vs.
growth stocks (%)
US Stocks
Developed ex US
Markets Stocks Emerging Markets Stocks
Yearly Observations of Premiums
6
Equity, size, relative price, and profitability: US Markets
Information provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP.
Equity premium: Fama/French Total US Market Index minus one-month US Treasury Bills. Size premium: Dimensional US Small Cap Index minus the S&P 500 Index. Relative price premium: Fama/French US Value Index minus the
Fama/French US Growth Index. Profitability premium: Dimensional US High Profitability Index minus the Dimensional US Low Profitability Index. Profitability is measured as operating income before depreciation and amortization minus
interest expense, scaled by book. Dimensional indices use CRSP and Compustat data. Fama/French indices provided by Ken French. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Index descriptions available upon
request. Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors for and provide consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP.
Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Historical Observations of 10-Year Premiums
7
Equity, size, relative price, and profitability: US Markets
Information provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP.
10-year rolling equity premium is computed as the 10-year annualized compound return on the Fama/French Total US Market Index minus the 10-year annualized compound return of the one-month US Treasury Bill. 10-year rolling size
premium is computed as the 10-year annualized compound return on the Dimensional US Small Cap Index minus the 10-year annualized compound return on the S&P 500 Index. 10-year rolling relative price premium is computed as the
10-year annualized compound return on the Fama/French US Value Index minus the 10-year annualized compound return on the Fama/French US Growth Index. The 10-year rolling profitability premium is computed as the 10-year
annualized compound return on the Dimensional US High Profitability Index minus the 10-year annualized compound return on the Dimensional US Low Profitability Index. Fama/French indices provided by Ken French. The S&P data is
provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Dimensional indices use CRSP and Compustat data. Index descriptions available upon request. Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors for and provide
consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is
no guarantee of future results.
Historical Performance of Premiums over Rolling Periods
8
US Markets
Information provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP.
Indices are not available for direct investment. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
1. Profitability is a measure of current profitability, based on information from individual companies’ income statements.
Based on rolling annualized returns using monthly data. Rolling multiyear periods overlap and are not independent. This statistical dependence must be considered when assessing the reliability of long-horizon return differences.
Dimensional Index data compiled by Dimensional. Fama/French data provided by Fama/French. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors
for and provide consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Index descriptions available upon request.
Small beat large 96% of the
time.
MARKET beat T-BILLS
Overlapping Periods: January 1928–December 2015
VALUE beat GROWTH
Overlapping Periods: January 1928–December 2015
SMALL beat LARGE
Overlapping Periods: January 1928–December 2015
HIGH PROFITABILITY1
beat LOW PROFITABILITY
Overlapping Periods: July 1963–December 2015
Market is Fama/French Total US Market Index.
T-Bills is One-Month US Treasury Bills.
There are 877 overlapping 15-year periods, 937 overlapping 10-year periods,
997 overlapping 5-year periods, and 1,045 overlapping 1-year periods.
Value is Fama/French US Value Index.
Growth is Fama/French US Growth Index.
There are 877 overlapping 15-year periods, 937 overlapping 10-year periods,
997 overlapping 5-year periods, and 1,045 overlapping 1-year periods.
Small is Dimensional US Small Cap Index.
Large is S&P 500 Index.
There are 877 overlapping 15-year periods, 937 overlapping 10-year periods,
997 overlapping 5-year periods, and 1,045 overlapping 1-year periods.
High is Dimensional US High Profitability Index.
Low is Dimensional US Low Profitability Index.
There are 451 overlapping 15-year periods, 511 overlapping 10-year periods,
571 overlapping 5-year periods, and 619 overlapping 1-year periods.
Portfolios Can Be Structured
to Pursue Dimensions
9
1. Beta: A quantitative measure of the co-movement of a given stock, mutual fund, or portfolio with the overall market.
2. Price-to-Book Ratio: A company's capitalization divided by its book value. It compares the market's valuation of a company to the value of that company as indicated on its financial
statements.
3.Profitability: A measure of a company’s current profits. We define this as operating income before depreciation and amortization minus interest expense, scaled by book equity.
Investors can pursue higher expected
returns through a low-cost, well-diversified
portfolio that targets these dimensions.
Diversification
• Helps you capture what global markets offer
• Smooths out the bumps
• Takes out the guesswork
• Maximizes risk adjusted returns
10
Diversification Helps You Capture
What Global Markets Offer
11
The global equity market is large and represents
a world of investment opportunity.
In US dollars. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Market cap data is free-float adjusted from Bloomberg securities data. Many nations not displayed. Total may not
equal 100% due to rounding. For educational purposes; should not be used as investment advice. China market capitalization excludes A-shares, which are generally only available to
mainland China investors.
For educational purposes; should not be used as investment advice.
Percent of world market capitalization as of December 31, 2014
• 44 countries
• Approximately
12,000 publicly
traded stocks
• $46.8 trillion
market value
Diversification Smooths Out
Some of the Bumps
12
Illustrative examples. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss.
A well-diversified portfolio
can provide the opportunity
for a more stable outcome
than a single security.
Diversification Helps Take
the Guesswork out of Investing
13
Annual returns (%): 2001–2015
In US dollars. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect expenses associated with
the management of an actual portfolio. Source: S&P data provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Russell data copyright © Russell Investment Group 1995-2016, all rights reserved. Dow Jones data provided by Dow Jones
Indexes. Dimensional Index data compiled by Dimensional. MSCI data © 2016, all rights reserved. The BofA Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; copyright 2016 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights
reserved. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation. Barclays Capital data is provided by Barclays Bank PLC. Citigroup bond indices © 2016 by Citigroup.
You never know which markets
will outperform from year to year.
By holding a globally diversified
portfolio, investors are positioned
to capture returns wherever
they occur.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
12.3 7.6 62.6 33.2 34.5 36.0 39.8 8.8 79.0 28.1 9.4 18.6 38.8 32.0 5.8
8.4 5.1 56.3 29.9 25.5 32.6 8.2 6.6 51.4 26.9 3.4 17.9 32.4 13.7 4.5
7.3 3.6 47.3 26.0 13.8 19.8 6.3 4.7 28.5 24.9 2.3 17.1 26.0 4.9 1.4
6.4 3.4 36.2 18.3 4.9 18.4 5.9 -33.8 27.2 19.2 2.1 16.3 1.2 1.9 1.0
2.5 -6.0 28.7 10.9 4.6 15.8 5.5 -37.0 26.5 15.1 0.6 16.0 0.6 1.2 0.9
-2.4 -7.1 2.0 2.7 3.1 4.3 3.6 -39.2 2.3 3.7 -4.2 2.1 0.3 0.2 0.2
-10.2 -20.5 1.9 1.3 2.4 4.1 -1.6 -47.8 0.8 2.0 -15.5 0.9 -0.1 -1.8 -4.4
-11.9 -22.1 1.5 0.8 1.3 3.8 -17.6 -53.2 0.2 0.8 -18.2 0.2 -2.3 -5.0 -14.6
S&P 500 Index
Russell 2000 Index
Dow Jones US Select REIT Index
Dimensional International Small Cap index
MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div.)
BofA Merrill Lynch One-Year US Treasury Notes Index
Barclays Treasury Bond Index 1-5 Years
Citigroup World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years (hedged to USD)
Higher
Return
Lower
Return
Investor Discipline
• Humans are not wired for disciplined investing
• Many investors follow their emotions
• Markets have rewarded discipline
• Focus on what you can control
14
Humans Are Not Wired for
Disciplined Investing
15
When people follow their
natural instincts, they tend
to apply faulty reasoning
to investing.
Many Investors Follow Their Emotions
16
People may struggle to separate their emotions
from their investment decisions.
Following a reactive cycle of excessive optimism and fear may lead to poor decisions at the worst times.
Markets Have Rewarded Discipline
17
In US dollars. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of
future results. MSCI data © MSCI 2014, all rights reserved.
Growth of a dollar—MSCI World Index, 1970–2013
$43
US home
prices hit
bottom
Fiscal
cliff
worries
Euro zone
debt crisis
S&P 500
down 46%
Subprime
mortgage
crisis
Hurricanes
Katrina
and Rita
Iraq
war
begins
Dotcom
stock
crash
9/11
terrorist
attack
Y2K
Scare
Russian
financial
crisis
Asian
currency
crisis
Income
tax
rates
rate
Iraq
invades
Kuwait
Savings
and loan
crisis
Dow drops
23% on Black
Monday
US
inflation
at 13.5%
BusinessWeek:
“The Death of
Equities”
Gold hits
record high
S&P 500
down 43%
Oil prices
quadruple
Arab oil
embargo
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013
1
A disciplined investor looks beyond the
concerns of today to the long-term growth
potential of markets.
$43
US home
prices hit
bottom
Fiscal
cliff
worries
Eurozone
debt crisis
S&P 500
down 46%
Subprime
mortgage
crisis
Hurricanes
Katrina
and Rita
Iraq
war
begins
Dotcom
stock
crash
9/11
terrorist
attacks
Y2K
Scare
Russian
financial
crisis
Asian
currency
crisis
Income
tax
rates
rise
Iraq
invades
Kuwait
Savings
and
loan crisis
Dow drops
23% on
Black Monday
US inflation
at 13.5%
BusinessWeek:
“The Death
of Equities”
Gold hits
record high
S&P 500
down 43%
Oil prices
quadruple
Arab oil
embargo
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013
Focus on What You Can Control
18Diversification neither ensures a profit nor guarantees against loss in a declining market.
No one can reliably forecast
the market’s direction or predict
which stock or investment
manager will outperform.
A financial advisor can help
you create a plan and focus
on actions that add value.
Creating an
investment plan to fit
your needs and risk tolerance
Structuring a portfolio around
dimensions of returns
Diversifying broadly
Reducing expenses and turnover
Minimizing taxes

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Why Pillar Capital (Investment approach)

  • 1. pillarcapital.com 801-770-3301 • Dimension of Returns • Diversification • Investor Discipline Why Pillar Capital?
  • 2. Dimensions of Returns • The capital markets have rewarded long-term investors • Dimensions point to differences in expected returns • Portfolios can be structured to pursue dimensions 2
  • 3. The Capital Markets Have Rewarded Long-Term Investors 3 Monthly growth of wealth ($1), 1926–2015 In US dollars. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. US Small Cap Index is the CRSP 6–10 Index; US Large Cap Index is the S&P 500 Index; Long-Term Government Bonds Index is 20-year US government bonds; Treasury Bills are One-Month US Treasury bills; Inflation is the Consumer Price Index. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. University of Chicago. Bonds, T-bills, and inflation data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). $16,743 US Small Cap Index $5,386 US Large Cap Index $135 Long-Term Government Bonds Index $21 Treasury Bills $13 Inflation (CPI) 2015
  • 4. Dimensions of Expected Returns 4 Expected returns are driven by prices investors pay and cash flows they expect to receive To be considered a dimension of expected return, a premium must be: • Sensible • Persistent across time periods • Pervasive across markets • Robust to alternative specifications • Cost-effective to capture in well-diversified portfolios Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. 1. Relative price as measured by the price-to-book ratio; value stocks are those with lower price-to-book ratios. 2. Profitability is a measure of current profitability, based on information from individual companies’ income statements. DIMENSIONS POINT TO SYSTEMATIC DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED RETURNS EQUITIES Company Size Small cap premium—small vs. large companies Market Equity premium—stocks vs. bonds Relative Price1 Value premium—value vs. growth companies Profitability2 Profitability premium—high vs. low profitability companies
  • 5. Dimensions of Expected Returns 5 Historical premiums and returns (annualized): US, Developed ex US, and Emerging Markets Information provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. US size premium: Dimensional US Small Cap Index minus S&P 500 Index. US relative price premium: Fama/French US Value Index minus Fama/French US Growth Index. US profitability premium: Dimensional US High Profitability Index minus Dimensional US Low Profitability Index. Dev. ex US size premium: Dimensional Intl. Small Cap Index minus MSCI World ex USA Index (gross div.). Dev. ex US relative price premium: Fama/French International Value index minus Fama/French International Growth Index. Dev. ex US profitability premium: Dimensional International High Profitability Index minus Dimensional International Low Profitability Index. Emerging Markets size premium: Dimensional Emerging Markets Small Cap Index minus MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div.). Emerging Markets relative price premium: Fama/French Emerging Markets Value Index minus Fama/French Emerging Markets Growth Index. Emerging Markets profitability premium: Dimensional Emerging Markets High Profitability Index minus Dimensional Emerging Markets Low Profitability Index. Profitability is measured as operating income before depreciation and amortization minus interest expense scaled by book. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. See “Index Descriptions” for descriptions of Dimensional and Fama/French index data. Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors for and provide consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. Profitability Relative performance of high profitability stocks vs. low profitability stocks (%) Company Size Relative performance of small cap stocks vs. large cap stocks (%) Relative Price Relative performance of value stocks vs. growth stocks (%) US Stocks Developed ex US Markets Stocks Emerging Markets Stocks
  • 6. Yearly Observations of Premiums 6 Equity, size, relative price, and profitability: US Markets Information provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Equity premium: Fama/French Total US Market Index minus one-month US Treasury Bills. Size premium: Dimensional US Small Cap Index minus the S&P 500 Index. Relative price premium: Fama/French US Value Index minus the Fama/French US Growth Index. Profitability premium: Dimensional US High Profitability Index minus the Dimensional US Low Profitability Index. Profitability is measured as operating income before depreciation and amortization minus interest expense, scaled by book. Dimensional indices use CRSP and Compustat data. Fama/French indices provided by Ken French. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Index descriptions available upon request. Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors for and provide consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
  • 7. Historical Observations of 10-Year Premiums 7 Equity, size, relative price, and profitability: US Markets Information provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. 10-year rolling equity premium is computed as the 10-year annualized compound return on the Fama/French Total US Market Index minus the 10-year annualized compound return of the one-month US Treasury Bill. 10-year rolling size premium is computed as the 10-year annualized compound return on the Dimensional US Small Cap Index minus the 10-year annualized compound return on the S&P 500 Index. 10-year rolling relative price premium is computed as the 10-year annualized compound return on the Fama/French US Value Index minus the 10-year annualized compound return on the Fama/French US Growth Index. The 10-year rolling profitability premium is computed as the 10-year annualized compound return on the Dimensional US High Profitability Index minus the 10-year annualized compound return on the Dimensional US Low Profitability Index. Fama/French indices provided by Ken French. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Dimensional indices use CRSP and Compustat data. Index descriptions available upon request. Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors for and provide consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
  • 8. Historical Performance of Premiums over Rolling Periods 8 US Markets Information provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Indices are not available for direct investment. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 1. Profitability is a measure of current profitability, based on information from individual companies’ income statements. Based on rolling annualized returns using monthly data. Rolling multiyear periods overlap and are not independent. This statistical dependence must be considered when assessing the reliability of long-horizon return differences. Dimensional Index data compiled by Dimensional. Fama/French data provided by Fama/French. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors for and provide consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Index descriptions available upon request. Small beat large 96% of the time. MARKET beat T-BILLS Overlapping Periods: January 1928–December 2015 VALUE beat GROWTH Overlapping Periods: January 1928–December 2015 SMALL beat LARGE Overlapping Periods: January 1928–December 2015 HIGH PROFITABILITY1 beat LOW PROFITABILITY Overlapping Periods: July 1963–December 2015 Market is Fama/French Total US Market Index. T-Bills is One-Month US Treasury Bills. There are 877 overlapping 15-year periods, 937 overlapping 10-year periods, 997 overlapping 5-year periods, and 1,045 overlapping 1-year periods. Value is Fama/French US Value Index. Growth is Fama/French US Growth Index. There are 877 overlapping 15-year periods, 937 overlapping 10-year periods, 997 overlapping 5-year periods, and 1,045 overlapping 1-year periods. Small is Dimensional US Small Cap Index. Large is S&P 500 Index. There are 877 overlapping 15-year periods, 937 overlapping 10-year periods, 997 overlapping 5-year periods, and 1,045 overlapping 1-year periods. High is Dimensional US High Profitability Index. Low is Dimensional US Low Profitability Index. There are 451 overlapping 15-year periods, 511 overlapping 10-year periods, 571 overlapping 5-year periods, and 619 overlapping 1-year periods.
  • 9. Portfolios Can Be Structured to Pursue Dimensions 9 1. Beta: A quantitative measure of the co-movement of a given stock, mutual fund, or portfolio with the overall market. 2. Price-to-Book Ratio: A company's capitalization divided by its book value. It compares the market's valuation of a company to the value of that company as indicated on its financial statements. 3.Profitability: A measure of a company’s current profits. We define this as operating income before depreciation and amortization minus interest expense, scaled by book equity. Investors can pursue higher expected returns through a low-cost, well-diversified portfolio that targets these dimensions.
  • 10. Diversification • Helps you capture what global markets offer • Smooths out the bumps • Takes out the guesswork • Maximizes risk adjusted returns 10
  • 11. Diversification Helps You Capture What Global Markets Offer 11 The global equity market is large and represents a world of investment opportunity. In US dollars. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Market cap data is free-float adjusted from Bloomberg securities data. Many nations not displayed. Total may not equal 100% due to rounding. For educational purposes; should not be used as investment advice. China market capitalization excludes A-shares, which are generally only available to mainland China investors. For educational purposes; should not be used as investment advice. Percent of world market capitalization as of December 31, 2014 • 44 countries • Approximately 12,000 publicly traded stocks • $46.8 trillion market value
  • 12. Diversification Smooths Out Some of the Bumps 12 Illustrative examples. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. A well-diversified portfolio can provide the opportunity for a more stable outcome than a single security.
  • 13. Diversification Helps Take the Guesswork out of Investing 13 Annual returns (%): 2001–2015 In US dollars. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Source: S&P data provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Russell data copyright © Russell Investment Group 1995-2016, all rights reserved. Dow Jones data provided by Dow Jones Indexes. Dimensional Index data compiled by Dimensional. MSCI data © 2016, all rights reserved. The BofA Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; copyright 2016 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation. Barclays Capital data is provided by Barclays Bank PLC. Citigroup bond indices © 2016 by Citigroup. You never know which markets will outperform from year to year. By holding a globally diversified portfolio, investors are positioned to capture returns wherever they occur. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 12.3 7.6 62.6 33.2 34.5 36.0 39.8 8.8 79.0 28.1 9.4 18.6 38.8 32.0 5.8 8.4 5.1 56.3 29.9 25.5 32.6 8.2 6.6 51.4 26.9 3.4 17.9 32.4 13.7 4.5 7.3 3.6 47.3 26.0 13.8 19.8 6.3 4.7 28.5 24.9 2.3 17.1 26.0 4.9 1.4 6.4 3.4 36.2 18.3 4.9 18.4 5.9 -33.8 27.2 19.2 2.1 16.3 1.2 1.9 1.0 2.5 -6.0 28.7 10.9 4.6 15.8 5.5 -37.0 26.5 15.1 0.6 16.0 0.6 1.2 0.9 -2.4 -7.1 2.0 2.7 3.1 4.3 3.6 -39.2 2.3 3.7 -4.2 2.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 -10.2 -20.5 1.9 1.3 2.4 4.1 -1.6 -47.8 0.8 2.0 -15.5 0.9 -0.1 -1.8 -4.4 -11.9 -22.1 1.5 0.8 1.3 3.8 -17.6 -53.2 0.2 0.8 -18.2 0.2 -2.3 -5.0 -14.6 S&P 500 Index Russell 2000 Index Dow Jones US Select REIT Index Dimensional International Small Cap index MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div.) BofA Merrill Lynch One-Year US Treasury Notes Index Barclays Treasury Bond Index 1-5 Years Citigroup World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years (hedged to USD) Higher Return Lower Return
  • 14. Investor Discipline • Humans are not wired for disciplined investing • Many investors follow their emotions • Markets have rewarded discipline • Focus on what you can control 14
  • 15. Humans Are Not Wired for Disciplined Investing 15 When people follow their natural instincts, they tend to apply faulty reasoning to investing.
  • 16. Many Investors Follow Their Emotions 16 People may struggle to separate their emotions from their investment decisions. Following a reactive cycle of excessive optimism and fear may lead to poor decisions at the worst times.
  • 17. Markets Have Rewarded Discipline 17 In US dollars. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. MSCI data © MSCI 2014, all rights reserved. Growth of a dollar—MSCI World Index, 1970–2013 $43 US home prices hit bottom Fiscal cliff worries Euro zone debt crisis S&P 500 down 46% Subprime mortgage crisis Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Iraq war begins Dotcom stock crash 9/11 terrorist attack Y2K Scare Russian financial crisis Asian currency crisis Income tax rates rate Iraq invades Kuwait Savings and loan crisis Dow drops 23% on Black Monday US inflation at 13.5% BusinessWeek: “The Death of Equities” Gold hits record high S&P 500 down 43% Oil prices quadruple Arab oil embargo 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 1 A disciplined investor looks beyond the concerns of today to the long-term growth potential of markets. $43 US home prices hit bottom Fiscal cliff worries Eurozone debt crisis S&P 500 down 46% Subprime mortgage crisis Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Iraq war begins Dotcom stock crash 9/11 terrorist attacks Y2K Scare Russian financial crisis Asian currency crisis Income tax rates rise Iraq invades Kuwait Savings and loan crisis Dow drops 23% on Black Monday US inflation at 13.5% BusinessWeek: “The Death of Equities” Gold hits record high S&P 500 down 43% Oil prices quadruple Arab oil embargo 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013
  • 18. Focus on What You Can Control 18Diversification neither ensures a profit nor guarantees against loss in a declining market. No one can reliably forecast the market’s direction or predict which stock or investment manager will outperform. A financial advisor can help you create a plan and focus on actions that add value. Creating an investment plan to fit your needs and risk tolerance Structuring a portfolio around dimensions of returns Diversifying broadly Reducing expenses and turnover Minimizing taxes

Editor's Notes

  1. Talking Points: The dimensions point to systematic differences in expected returns. Portfolios can be structured using these dimensions, which are sensible, backed by data, and capable of being captured in a cost-effective way in diversified portfolios. To be considered a dimension of expected returns, we require a premium to meet this criteria so we have greater confidence it will continue in the future and is worth pursuing in a real-world portfolio. In the equity markets, we have identified four dimensions of expected returns that meet our criteria. First is the market itself—stocks have higher expected returns than T-bills. Relative performance among stocks largely depends on three dimensions—company size (small vs. large), relative price (value vs. growth), and profitability (high vs. low). When setting prices, markets effectively apply different discount rates to stocks to reflect differences in underlying risk. Company size, relative price, and profitability are variables—or dimensions—that allow us to identify differences in these discount rates.
  2. Talking Points: This chart documents long-term average returns for the dimensions of expected returns. This data offers evidence that the size, relative price, and profitability dimensions have been persistent across time and pervasive across markets. Each premium has appeared over many decades in the US market. Looking beyond the US markets (i.e., out of sample), these premiums have also appeared in developed ex US and emerging markets. The data supporting the dimensions of expected returns, combined with a strong story about why this approach makes sense, offers greater confidence that the premiums will persist in future time periods.
  3. Talking Points: This chart documents the relative performance of dimensions in the US equity market. The blue bars indicate years in which the market, small cap, value, and profitability premiums were positive. The red bars indicate years in which the premiums were negative. A positive premium indicates outperformance (e.g., small cap stocks outperform large cap stocks); a negative premium indicates underperformance (e.g., small cap stocks underperform large cap stocks). Over the time periods for which there is available data, positive premiums have occurred more frequently than negative premiums across all dimensions. However, yearly observations of premiums can vary widely and experience extreme and prolonged negative relative performance. Investors should take a longer-term view when targeting dimensions of higher expected returns and be prepared to stay disciplined throughout different market environments. Over longer periods, we have observed a higher frequency of positive premiums.
  4. Talking Points: This chart documents the relative 10-year annualized performance of equity dimensions in the US. When looking at longer time spans, positive premiums are more frequent compared to yearly results. The blue bars denote 10-year periods in which the market, small cap, value, and profitability premiums were positive; the red bars indicate periods of negative premiums. The graphs show that the US market, as well as small cap stocks, value stocks, and high profitability stocks, delivered higher annualized returns relative to their counterparts in most 10-year periods. Despite the higher frequency of positive premiums, outperformance may not be consistent, even over longer periods. Long-term investors should consider that premiums are never guaranteed and can undergo extended periods of negative returns in both relative and absolute terms.
  5. This slide documents the frequency of positive equity premiums over rolling periods of one, five, 10, and 15 years in the US stock market. The results illustrate that the equity market, value stocks, small cap stocks, and high profitability stocks have outperformed relative to Treasury bills, growth stocks, large cap stocks, and low-profitability stocks, respectively, for the rolling periods indicated. The time frames reflect dates for which data is available. The observations are based on annualized returns for rolling 12-month periods (e.g., January to December, February to January, March to February, etc.). The total number of 12-month periods for each time frame is indicated for each premium. Observing performance over longer time frames results in more frequent positive premiums compared to observing performance year to year. Long-term investors should consider that premiums are never guaranteed and can experience periods of negative returns in both relative and absolute terms.