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CP1920.8

A Fully Diversified Portfolio
Quarterly: 1973-2011
Model Portfolio 5


                               Annualized         Annualized                                                      Merrill Lynch One-Year US Treasury Note Index
                               Compound            Standard                                                       S&P 500 Index
                                  Return           Deviation
                                                                                                                  US Small Cap Index
 Model Portfolio 1                   9.34%           11.14%                                                       US Large Value Index
 Model Portfolio 2                   8.65%           10.27%                                                       Targeted Value Index
 Model Portfolio 3                   9.46%           11.95%                                                       International Large Index
                                                                                                                  International Small Index
 Model Portfolio 4                  10.33%           11.94%
                                                                                                                  International Large Value Index
 Model Portfolio 5                  11.15%           11.39%
                                                                                                                  International Small Value Index
                                                                                                                  Emerging Markets Blended Index
                                                           BofA
                         Barclays US              Merrill Lynch              US         US                                                  Intl.        Intl.   Emerging
                         Govt./Credit        S&P One-Year US              Small       Large     Targeted          Intl.        Intl.      Large        Small      Markets
                                Bond         500     Treasury               Cap       Value        Value        Large        Small        Value        Value      Blended
                               Index        Index  Note Index             Index       Index        Index        Index        Index        Index        Index         Index
 Model Portfolio 1                40%        60%
 Model Portfolio 2                           60%               40%
 Model Portfolio 3                           30%               40%         30%
 Model Portfolio 4                           15%               40%         15%          15%          15%
 Model Portfolio 5                           7.5%              40%        7.5%         7.5%         7.5%           6%           6%           6%           6%           6%


Rebalanced annually. Barclays Capital data provided by Barclays Bank PLC. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. The Merrill Lynch
Indices are used with permission; copyright 2012 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Dimensional Index data compiled by Dimensional.
Emerging Markets Blended Index consists of 50% Fama/French Emerging Markets Index, 25% Fama/French Emerging Markets Small Cap Index, and 25% Fama/French
Emerging Markets Value Index. Fama/French Emerging Markets, Fama/French Emerging Markets Value and Fama/French Emerging Markets Small Cap Index weightings
allocated evenly between Dimensional International Small Cap Index and Fama/French International Value Index prior to January 1989 data inception. Dimensional
International Small Cap Value Index weighting allocated to International Small Cap Index prior to July 1981 data inception. International Value weighting allocated evenly
between International Small Cap and MSCI World ex USA Index prior to January 1975 data inception. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance
does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not to be construed as
investment advice. Returns of model portfolios are based on back-tested model allocation mixes designed with the benefit of hindsight and do not represent actual
investment performance. See cover page for additional information.
RR1220.9

   Size and Value Effects Are Strong around the World
   Annual Index Data




       Annualized
       Compound
       Returns (%)

                             US              US               US            US                                                            Emg.        Emg.        Emg.        Emg.
                           Large     S&P Large               Small CRSP   Small                Intl.    Intl. MSCI  Intl.               Markets     Markets     Markets     Markets
                           Value      500 Growth             Value  6-10 Growth               Value    Small EAFE Growth                 Value       Small      “Market”    Growth
                                US Large                          US Small                         Non-US Developed                                    Emerging
                           Capitalization Stocks             Capitalization Stocks                  Markets Stocks                                   Markets Stocks
                                1927–2011                        1927–2011                            1975–2011                                       1989–2011

Average Return (%)         13.63    11.77     11.29          18.82    15.72     13.74         17.44    18.23    12.98     10.74            22.86       20.00       17.77          15.63
Standard Deviation (%) 27.10        20.41     21.81          35.07    30.84     33.90         24.81    28.32    22.37     22.07            42.31       40.86       36.47          34.77

   In US dollars. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past
   performance is not a guarantee of future results. US value and growth index data (ex utilities) provided by Fama/French. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s
   Index Services Group. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. International Value data provided by Fama/French from
   Bloomberg and MSCI securities data. International Small data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg, StyleResearch, London Business School, and Nomura Securities
   data. MSCI EAFE Index is net of foreign withholding taxes on dividends; copyright MSCI 2012, all rights reserved. Emerging markets index data simulated by Fama/French
   from countries in the IFC Investable Universe; simulations are free-float weighted both within each country and across all countries.
   Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
   Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may
   lose money. Small company risk: Securities of small firms are often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively
   more in price. Emerging markets risk: Numerous emerging countries have experienced serious, and potentially continuing, economic and political problems. Stock markets
   in many emerging countries are relatively small, expensive, and risky. Foreigners are often limited in their ability to invest in, and withdraw assets from, these markets.
   Additional restrictions may be imposed under other conditions. Foreign securities and currencies risk: Foreign securities prices may decline or fluctuate because of: (a)
   economic or political actions of foreign governments, and/or (b) less regulated or liquid securities markets. Investors holding these securities are also exposed to foreign
   currency risk (the possibility that foreign currency will fluctuate in value against the US dollar).
RR1260.4

  Structure Determines Performance


                                                                                          Structured Exposure
                                                                                          to Factors.
 •   The vast majority of the variation in returns is
                                                                                    • Market.
     due to risk factor exposure.                                                   • Size.
                                                                                    • Value/Growth.
 •   After fees, traditional management typically
     reduces returns.



                                                                                                                     Unexplained Variation
THE MODEL TELLS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INVESTING AND SPECULATING


average              average        sensitivity              sensitivity            sensitivity                random
expected return =    excess    +    to market           +    to size           +    to BtM              +      error
                     return                                                                                    e(t)
[minus T-bills]                     [market return           [small stocks          [value stocks
                                    minus T-bills]           minus big              minus
                                                             stocks]                growth]


                                                        Priced Risk                                 Unpriced Risk
                                                        •   Positive expected return.               •       Noise.
                                                        •   Systematic.                             •       Random.
                                                        •   Economic.                               •       Short-term.
                                                        •   Long-term.                              •       Speculating.
                                                        •   Investing.
RR1270.3

Five Factors Help Determine Expected Return
Annual Average Returns
1927–2011




                           7.94%




                                                                     4.73%

                                                3.66%

                                                                                                               2.51%


                                                                                                                                    0.63%


                           Market                Size                  BtM                                     Maturity               Credit
                            Factor              Factor                Factor                                     Factor               Factor
                       All Equity       Small Stocks              High BtM                                     LT Govt.             LT Corp.
                       Universe               minus                  minus                                       minus                minus
                    minus T-Bills       Large Stocks              Low BtM                                        T-Bills            LT Govt.




Equity factors provided by Fama/French. Maturity factor and credit factor data (1927–1972) provided by © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation
Yearbook©, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). Credit factor data (1973–present)
provided by Barclays Bank PLC. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the
management of an actual portfolio.
RR1271.5

The Risk Dimensions Delivered
July1926–December 2011




                             US Value vs. US Growth                                                 US Small vs. US Large
     O V E R L A P P IN G
             P E R IO D S
                             Value beat growth 100% of the time.
                             Value beat growth 100% of the time.                                    Small beat large 96% of the time.
                                                                                                    Small beat large 97% of the time.



                             Value beat growth 100% of the time.
                             Value beat growth 100% of the time.                                    Small beat large 83% of the time.
                                                                                                    Small beat large 88% of the time.



                             Value beat growth 99% of the time.
                             Value beat growth 95% of the time.                                     Small beat large 78% of the time.
                                                                                                    Small beat large 82% of the time.


                             Value beat growth 91% of the time.
                             Value beat growth 96% of the time.                                     Small beat large 68% of the time.
                                                                                                    Small beat large 75% of the time.


                             Value beat growth 81% of the time.
                             Value beat growth 86% of the time.                                   Small beat large 59% of the time.
                                                                                                   Small beat large 60% of the time.




Periods based on rolling annualized returns. 727 total 25-year periods. 787 total 20-year periods.
847 total 15-year periods. 895 total 10-year periods. 967 total 5-year periods.
Performance based on Fama/French Research Factors. Securities of small companies are often less liquid than those of large companies.
As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Mutual funds distributed by DFA Securities LLC.
RR1271.5

The Risk Dimensions Delivered




                             January 1975–December 2011                                                  January 1970–December 2011
                             International Value vs. International                                        International Small vs. International Large
     O V E R L A P P IN G    Growth
             P E R IO D S
                              Value beat growth 100% of the time.
                              Value beat growth 100% of the time.                                          Small beat large 100% of the time.
                                                                                                            Small beat large 100% of the time.



                              Value beat growth 100% of the time.
                              Value beat growth 100% of the time.                                          Small beat large 100% of the time.
                                                                                                            Small beat large 97%



                              Value beat growth 100% of the time.
                              Value beat growth 100% of the time.                                           Small beat large 83% of the time.
                                                                                                           Small beat large 84% of the time.



                              Value beat growth 100% of the time.
                              Value beat growth 100% of the time.                                          Small beat large 76% of the time.
                                                                                                            Small beat large 79% of the time.



                              Value beat growth 98% of the time.
                              Value beat growth 98% of the time.                                           Small beat large 75% of the time.
                                                                                                            Small beat large 79% of the time.




Based on rolling annualized returns. Rolling multi-year periods overlap and are not independent. This statistical dependence must be considered when
assessing the reliability of long-horizon return differences.
International Value vs. International Growth data: 145 overlapping 25-year periods. 205 overlapping 20-year periods. 265 overlapping 15-year periods. 325
overlapping 10-year periods. 385 overlapping 5-year periods. International Small vs. International Large data: 205 overlapping 25-year periods. 265
overlapping 20-year periods. 325 overlapping 15-year periods. 385 overlapping 10-year periods. 445 overlapping 5-year periods. International Value and
Growth data provided by Fama/French from Bloomberg and MSCI securities data. International Small data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg,
StyleResearch, London Business School, and Nomura Securities data. International Large is MSCI World ex USA Index gross of foreign withholding taxes
on dividends; copyright MSCI 2012, all rights reserved.
RR1274.3

Risk and Return Are Related




                                                                                                                      Small
Three Dimensions of Stock Returns around the World


• Equity Market
  (complete value-weighted universe of stocks)
  Stocks tend to have higher expected returns
  than fixed income over time.                                                                                                Increased Risk
                                                                                                                              Exposure and
• Company Size                                                                                                                Expected Return
  (measured by market capitalization)
                                                                           Growth                                                                                Value
  Small company stocks tend to have higher
  expected returns than large company stocks
  over time.                                                                                       Decreased Risk
                                                                                                    Exposure and                  Total
                                                                                                  Expected Return                 Stock
• Company Price
                                                                                                                                  Market
  (measured by ratio of company book value to
  market equity)
  Lower-priced “value” stocks tend to have higher
  expected returns than higher-priced “growth”
  stocks over time.
                                                                                                                       Large



Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, “The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns,” Journal of Finance 47, no. 2 (June 1992): 427-65.
Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French are consultants for Dimensional Fund Advisors. This page contains the opinions of Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French but
not necessarily of Dimensional Fund Advisors or DFA Securities LLC, and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product.
The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or
an offer of any security for sale. Dimensional Fund Advisors (“Dimensional”) is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All materials
presented are compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This article is distributed for educational purposes, and it is
not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, products or services described. ©2012 by Dimensional Fund
Advisors. All rights reserved.
IC1420.5

Mutual Fund Expenses

“After costs, the return on the average actively managed dollar will be less than the return on the
 average passively managed dollar for any time period.”
                                                                                              —William F. Sharpe, 1990 Nobel Laureate




   Domestic Mutual Fund Expense Ratios                                                    International Mutual Fund Expense Ratios




 Average of  Weighted Average,   Average of Weighted Average,                              Average of  Weighted Average,   Average of Weighted Average,
  All Funds Based on Fund Assets All Funds Based on Fund Assets                             All Funds Based on Fund Assets All Funds Based on Fund Assets

               Active                             Passive                                               Active                              Passive




William F. Sharpe, “The Arithmetic of Active Management,” Financial Analysts Journal 47, no. 1 (January/February 1991): 7-9.
Mutual fund expense ratios as of April 9, 2010. Asset weighting based on net assets as of December 31, 2008. Data provided by Morningstar, Inc.
Passive funds are those coded by Morningstar as Index Funds.
IT1610.2

      Innovations in Finance



Conventional Wisdom circa 1950                                                                                                                     Efficient Markets Hypothesis
“Once you attain competency,                                                                      Single-Factor Asset Pricing Risk/                Eugene F. Fama,
diversification is undesirable. One or                                                                                                             University of Chicago
                                                                                                  Return Model
two, or at most three or four, securities    The Role of Stocks
should be bought. Competent                                                                       William Sharpe                                   Extensive research on stock price
investors will never be satisfied            James Tobin                                          Nobel Prize in Economics, 1990                   patterns.
beating the averages by a few small          Nobel Prize in Economics, 1981
percentage points.”                                                                               Capital Asset Pricing Model:                     Develops Efficient Markets Hypothesis,
                                             Separation Theorem:                                  Theoretical model defines risk as                which asserts that prices reflect values
Gerald M. Loeb, The Battle for Investment    1. Form portfolio of risky assets.                   volatility relative to market.                   and information accurately and quickly.
Survival, 1935                               2. Temper risk by lending and                                                                         It is difficult if not impossible to capture
                                             borrowing.                                           A stock’s cost of capital (the investor’s        returns in excess of market returns             The Birth of Index Funds
Analyze securities one by one. Focus                                                              expected return) is proportional to the          without taking greater than market              John McQuown,
on picking winners. Concentrate              Shifts focus from security selection to              stock’s risk relative to the entire stock        levels of risk.                                 Wells Fargo Bank, 1971;
holdings to maximize returns.                portfolio structure.                                 universe.                                                                                        Rex Sinquefield,
                                                                                                                                                   Investors cannot identify superior              American National Bank, 1973
Broad diversification is considered          “Liquidity Preference as Behavior                    Theoretical model for evaluating the             stocks using fundamental information
undesirable.                                 Toward Risk,” Review of Economic                     risk and expected return of securities           or price patterns.                              Banks develop the first passive S&P
                                             Studies, February 1958.                              and portfolios.                                                                                  500 Index funds.



 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974


Diversification and Portfolio Risk                                    Investments and Capital                    Behavior of Securities Prices            First Major Study of Manager             Options Pricing Model
Harry Markowitz                                                       Structure                                  Paul Samuelson, MIT                      Performance                              Fischer Black,
Nobel Prize in Economics, 1990                                        Merton Miller and Franco Modigliani        Nobel Prize in Economics, 1970           Michael Jensen, 1965                     University of Chicago;
                                                                      Nobel Prizes in Economics,                                                          A.G. Becker Corporation, 1968            Myron Scholes,
Diversification reduces risk.                                         1990 and 1985                              Market prices are the best estimates of                                           University of Chicago;
                                                                                                                 value.                                  First studies of mutual funds (Jensen)    Robert Merton,
Assets evaluated not by individual                                    Theorem relating corporate finance to                                              and of institutional plans (A.G. Becker   Harvard University
characteristics but by their effect on a                              returns.                                   Price changes follow random patterns. Corp.) indicate active managers             Nobel Prize in Economics, 1997
portfolio. An optimal portfolio can be                                                                           Future share prices are unpredictable. underperform indices.
constructed to maximize return for a given                            A firm’s value is unrelated to its                                                                                           The development of the Options
standard deviation.                                                   dividend policy.                           “Proof That Properly Anticipated       Becker Corp. gives rise to consulting      Pricing Model allows new ways to
                                                                                                                 Prices Fluctuate Randomly,” Industrial industry with creation of “Green Book”     segment, quantify, and manage risk.
                                                                      Dividend policy is an unreliable guide     Management Review, Spring 1965.        performance tables comparing results
                                                                      for stock selection.                                                              to benchmarks.                             The model spurs the development of a
                                                                                                                                                                                                   market for alternative investments.
IT1610.2

   Innovations in Finance


                                                                                                         Multifactor Asset Pricing Model
                                                                                                         and Value Effect
A Major Plan First                                                                                       Eugene Fama and                                                                                   Integrated Equity
Commits to Indexing                                                                                      Kenneth French,
                                                                                                         University of Chicago                                                                             Eugene F. Fama and
New York Telephone Company                                                                                                                                                                                 Kenneth R. French
invests $40 million in an S&P 500                                                                        Improves on the single-factor asset
Index fund.                                                                                              pricing model (CAPM).                             International Size Effect                       Increasing exposure to small and
                                                                                                                                                                                                           value companies relative to their
The first major plan to index.             The Size Effect                                               Identifies market, size, and “value”              Steven L. Heston, K. Geert                      market weights and integrating the
                                                                                                         factors in returns.                               Rouwenhorst, and Roberto E. Wessels             portfolio across the full range of
Helps launch the era of indexed            Rolf Banz, University of Chicago                                                                                                                                securities may reduce the turnover
investing.                                                                                               Develops the three-factor asset pricing           Find evidence of higher average                 and transaction costs normally
                                           Analyzed NYSE stocks,                                         model, an invaluable asset allocation             returns to small companies in twelve            associated with forming an asset
“Fund spokesmen are quick to point         1926-1975.                                                    and portfolio analysis tool.                      international markets.                          allocation from multiple components.
out you can’t buy the market averages.
It’s time the public could.”           Finds that, in the long term, small                               “Common Risk Factors in the Returns               “The Structure of International Stock           “Migration,” CRSP Working Paper No.
                                       companies have higher expected                                    on Stocks and Bonds,” Journal of                  Returns and the Integration of Capital          614, Center for Research in Security
Burton G. Malkiel, A Random Walk       returns than large companies and                                  Financial Economics 33, no. 1                     Markets,” Journal of Empirical Finance          Prices, University of Chicago,
Down Wall Street, 1973 ed.             behave differently.                                               (February 1993): 3-56.                            2, no. 3 (September 1995): 173-97.              February 2007.



1975    1976 1977       1978     1979   1980   1981 1982     1983   1984      1985   1986   1987     1988   1989    1990    1991   1992      1993   1994   1995   1996 1997      1998   1999      2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006



Database of Securities Prices                    Variable Maturity Strategy                        Nobel Prize Recognizes Modern
since 1926                                       Implemented                                       Finance
Roger Ibbotson and                               Eugene F. Fama                                    Economists who shaped the way we
Rex Sinquefield,                                                                                   invest are recognized, emphasizing
Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation              With no prediction of interest rates,             the role of science in finance.
                                                 Eugene Fama develops a method of
An extensive returns database for                shifting maturities that identifies               William Sharpe for the Capital Asset
multiple asset classes is first                  optimal positions on the fixed income             Pricing Model.
developed and will become one of the             yield curve.
most widely used investment                                                                        Harry Markowitz for portfolio theory.
databases.                                       “The Information in the Term
                                                 Structure,” Journal of Financial                  Merton Miller for work on the effect of
The first extensive, empirical basis for         Economics 13, no. 4 (December                     firms’ capital structure and dividend
making asset allocation decisions                1984): 509-28.                                    policy on their prices.
changes the way investors build
portfolios.
CP1840.8

Evaluating the Maturity Risk/Return Tradeoff
Quarterly: 1964–2011


• Not all investors define risk as                             14
  standard deviation. Some
  investors may seek to hedge                                  12

  long-term liabilities using long-                            10
  term bonds.                                                                           Annualized
                                                                 8                      Compound Returns

• Historically, longer-maturity                                  6

  instruments have higher                                                               Annualized
                                                                 4                      Standard Deviation
  standard deviations than
  shorter-maturity instruments.                                  2

                                                              0
                                                        One-Month US Treasury        Six-Month US Treasury       One-Year US Treasury        Five-Year US Treasury          Twenty-Year US
                                                                Bills                        Bills                     Notes                         Notes                 Government Bond



                                                                           One-Month          Six-Month              One-Year    Five-Year             Twenty-Year
                                                                          US Treasury        US Treasury           US Treasury US Treasury                US Govt.
                      Maturity                                                   Bills              Bills                Notes       Notes                  Bonds

                      Annualized Compound Return (%)                                 5.33              6.07                  6.28             7.32                7.77

                      Annualized Standard Deviation (%)                              1.46              1.80                  2.35             6.17               11.51


Source: One-Month US Treasury Bills, Five-Year US Treasury Notes, and Twenty-Year (Long-Term) US Government Bonds provided by Ibbotson Associates. Six-Month
US Treasury Bills provided by CRSP (1964–1977) and BofA Merrill Lynch (1978–present). One-Year US Treasury Notes provided by CRSP (1964–May 1991) and BofA
Merrill Lynch (June 1991–present). Ibbotson data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G.
Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. The Merrill Lynch Indices are used with
permission; copyright 2012 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved.
Indexes are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may
lose money. Fixed income securities are subject to interest rate risk because the prices of fixed income securities tend to move in the opposite direction of interest rates. In
general, fixed income securities with longer maturities are more sensitive to these price changes and may experience greater fluctuation in returns.
CP2000.6

MSCI Disclosure


Copyright MSCI 2012. Unpublished. All rights reserved. This information may only be used for your internal
use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used to create any financial
instruments or products or any indices. This information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this
information assumes the entire risk of any use it may make or permit to be made of this information. Neither
MSCI, any of its affiliates, nor any other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating this
information makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such information or
the results to be obtained by the use thereof, and MSCI, its affiliates, and each such other person hereby
expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, all warranties of originality, accuracy,
completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect
to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any
other person involved in or related to compiling, computing, or creating this information have any liability for
any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential, or any other damages (including, without
limitation, lost profits) even if notified of, or if it might otherwise have anticipated, the possibility of such
damages.

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The Power of Economic Science 2012

  • 1. CP1920.8 A Fully Diversified Portfolio Quarterly: 1973-2011 Model Portfolio 5 Annualized Annualized Merrill Lynch One-Year US Treasury Note Index Compound Standard S&P 500 Index Return Deviation US Small Cap Index Model Portfolio 1 9.34% 11.14% US Large Value Index Model Portfolio 2 8.65% 10.27% Targeted Value Index Model Portfolio 3 9.46% 11.95% International Large Index International Small Index Model Portfolio 4 10.33% 11.94% International Large Value Index Model Portfolio 5 11.15% 11.39% International Small Value Index Emerging Markets Blended Index BofA Barclays US Merrill Lynch US US Intl. Intl. Emerging Govt./Credit S&P One-Year US Small Large Targeted Intl. Intl. Large Small Markets Bond 500 Treasury Cap Value Value Large Small Value Value Blended Index Index Note Index Index Index Index Index Index Index Index Index Model Portfolio 1 40% 60% Model Portfolio 2 60% 40% Model Portfolio 3 30% 40% 30% Model Portfolio 4 15% 40% 15% 15% 15% Model Portfolio 5 7.5% 40% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% Rebalanced annually. Barclays Capital data provided by Barclays Bank PLC. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. The Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; copyright 2012 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Dimensional Index data compiled by Dimensional. Emerging Markets Blended Index consists of 50% Fama/French Emerging Markets Index, 25% Fama/French Emerging Markets Small Cap Index, and 25% Fama/French Emerging Markets Value Index. Fama/French Emerging Markets, Fama/French Emerging Markets Value and Fama/French Emerging Markets Small Cap Index weightings allocated evenly between Dimensional International Small Cap Index and Fama/French International Value Index prior to January 1989 data inception. Dimensional International Small Cap Value Index weighting allocated to International Small Cap Index prior to July 1981 data inception. International Value weighting allocated evenly between International Small Cap and MSCI World ex USA Index prior to January 1975 data inception. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not to be construed as investment advice. Returns of model portfolios are based on back-tested model allocation mixes designed with the benefit of hindsight and do not represent actual investment performance. See cover page for additional information.
  • 2. RR1220.9 Size and Value Effects Are Strong around the World Annual Index Data Annualized Compound Returns (%) US US US US Emg. Emg. Emg. Emg. Large S&P Large Small CRSP Small Intl. Intl. MSCI Intl. Markets Markets Markets Markets Value 500 Growth Value 6-10 Growth Value Small EAFE Growth Value Small “Market” Growth US Large US Small Non-US Developed Emerging Capitalization Stocks Capitalization Stocks Markets Stocks Markets Stocks 1927–2011 1927–2011 1975–2011 1989–2011 Average Return (%) 13.63 11.77 11.29 18.82 15.72 13.74 17.44 18.23 12.98 10.74 22.86 20.00 17.77 15.63 Standard Deviation (%) 27.10 20.41 21.81 35.07 30.84 33.90 24.81 28.32 22.37 22.07 42.31 40.86 36.47 34.77 In US dollars. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. US value and growth index data (ex utilities) provided by Fama/French. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. International Value data provided by Fama/French from Bloomberg and MSCI securities data. International Small data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg, StyleResearch, London Business School, and Nomura Securities data. MSCI EAFE Index is net of foreign withholding taxes on dividends; copyright MSCI 2012, all rights reserved. Emerging markets index data simulated by Fama/French from countries in the IFC Investable Universe; simulations are free-float weighted both within each country and across all countries. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Small company risk: Securities of small firms are often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Emerging markets risk: Numerous emerging countries have experienced serious, and potentially continuing, economic and political problems. Stock markets in many emerging countries are relatively small, expensive, and risky. Foreigners are often limited in their ability to invest in, and withdraw assets from, these markets. Additional restrictions may be imposed under other conditions. Foreign securities and currencies risk: Foreign securities prices may decline or fluctuate because of: (a) economic or political actions of foreign governments, and/or (b) less regulated or liquid securities markets. Investors holding these securities are also exposed to foreign currency risk (the possibility that foreign currency will fluctuate in value against the US dollar).
  • 3. RR1260.4 Structure Determines Performance Structured Exposure to Factors. • The vast majority of the variation in returns is • Market. due to risk factor exposure. • Size. • Value/Growth. • After fees, traditional management typically reduces returns. Unexplained Variation THE MODEL TELLS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INVESTING AND SPECULATING average average sensitivity sensitivity sensitivity random expected return = excess + to market + to size + to BtM + error return e(t) [minus T-bills] [market return [small stocks [value stocks minus T-bills] minus big minus stocks] growth] Priced Risk Unpriced Risk • Positive expected return. • Noise. • Systematic. • Random. • Economic. • Short-term. • Long-term. • Speculating. • Investing.
  • 4. RR1270.3 Five Factors Help Determine Expected Return Annual Average Returns 1927–2011 7.94% 4.73% 3.66% 2.51% 0.63% Market Size BtM Maturity Credit Factor Factor Factor Factor Factor All Equity Small Stocks High BtM LT Govt. LT Corp. Universe minus minus minus minus minus T-Bills Large Stocks Low BtM T-Bills LT Govt. Equity factors provided by Fama/French. Maturity factor and credit factor data (1927–1972) provided by © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook©, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). Credit factor data (1973–present) provided by Barclays Bank PLC. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
  • 5. RR1271.5 The Risk Dimensions Delivered July1926–December 2011 US Value vs. US Growth US Small vs. US Large O V E R L A P P IN G P E R IO D S Value beat growth 100% of the time. Value beat growth 100% of the time. Small beat large 96% of the time. Small beat large 97% of the time. Value beat growth 100% of the time. Value beat growth 100% of the time. Small beat large 83% of the time. Small beat large 88% of the time. Value beat growth 99% of the time. Value beat growth 95% of the time. Small beat large 78% of the time. Small beat large 82% of the time. Value beat growth 91% of the time. Value beat growth 96% of the time. Small beat large 68% of the time. Small beat large 75% of the time. Value beat growth 81% of the time. Value beat growth 86% of the time. Small beat large 59% of the time. Small beat large 60% of the time. Periods based on rolling annualized returns. 727 total 25-year periods. 787 total 20-year periods. 847 total 15-year periods. 895 total 10-year periods. 967 total 5-year periods. Performance based on Fama/French Research Factors. Securities of small companies are often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Mutual funds distributed by DFA Securities LLC.
  • 6. RR1271.5 The Risk Dimensions Delivered January 1975–December 2011 January 1970–December 2011 International Value vs. International International Small vs. International Large O V E R L A P P IN G Growth P E R IO D S Value beat growth 100% of the time. Value beat growth 100% of the time. Small beat large 100% of the time. Small beat large 100% of the time. Value beat growth 100% of the time. Value beat growth 100% of the time. Small beat large 100% of the time. Small beat large 97% Value beat growth 100% of the time. Value beat growth 100% of the time. Small beat large 83% of the time. Small beat large 84% of the time. Value beat growth 100% of the time. Value beat growth 100% of the time. Small beat large 76% of the time. Small beat large 79% of the time. Value beat growth 98% of the time. Value beat growth 98% of the time. Small beat large 75% of the time. Small beat large 79% of the time. Based on rolling annualized returns. Rolling multi-year periods overlap and are not independent. This statistical dependence must be considered when assessing the reliability of long-horizon return differences. International Value vs. International Growth data: 145 overlapping 25-year periods. 205 overlapping 20-year periods. 265 overlapping 15-year periods. 325 overlapping 10-year periods. 385 overlapping 5-year periods. International Small vs. International Large data: 205 overlapping 25-year periods. 265 overlapping 20-year periods. 325 overlapping 15-year periods. 385 overlapping 10-year periods. 445 overlapping 5-year periods. International Value and Growth data provided by Fama/French from Bloomberg and MSCI securities data. International Small data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg, StyleResearch, London Business School, and Nomura Securities data. International Large is MSCI World ex USA Index gross of foreign withholding taxes on dividends; copyright MSCI 2012, all rights reserved.
  • 7. RR1274.3 Risk and Return Are Related Small Three Dimensions of Stock Returns around the World • Equity Market (complete value-weighted universe of stocks) Stocks tend to have higher expected returns than fixed income over time. Increased Risk Exposure and • Company Size Expected Return (measured by market capitalization) Growth Value Small company stocks tend to have higher expected returns than large company stocks over time. Decreased Risk Exposure and Total Expected Return Stock • Company Price Market (measured by ratio of company book value to market equity) Lower-priced “value” stocks tend to have higher expected returns than higher-priced “growth” stocks over time. Large Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, “The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns,” Journal of Finance 47, no. 2 (June 1992): 427-65. Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French are consultants for Dimensional Fund Advisors. This page contains the opinions of Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French but not necessarily of Dimensional Fund Advisors or DFA Securities LLC, and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. Dimensional Fund Advisors (“Dimensional”) is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All materials presented are compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This article is distributed for educational purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, products or services described. ©2012 by Dimensional Fund Advisors. All rights reserved.
  • 8. IC1420.5 Mutual Fund Expenses “After costs, the return on the average actively managed dollar will be less than the return on the average passively managed dollar for any time period.” —William F. Sharpe, 1990 Nobel Laureate Domestic Mutual Fund Expense Ratios International Mutual Fund Expense Ratios Average of Weighted Average, Average of Weighted Average, Average of Weighted Average, Average of Weighted Average, All Funds Based on Fund Assets All Funds Based on Fund Assets All Funds Based on Fund Assets All Funds Based on Fund Assets Active Passive Active Passive William F. Sharpe, “The Arithmetic of Active Management,” Financial Analysts Journal 47, no. 1 (January/February 1991): 7-9. Mutual fund expense ratios as of April 9, 2010. Asset weighting based on net assets as of December 31, 2008. Data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Passive funds are those coded by Morningstar as Index Funds.
  • 9. IT1610.2 Innovations in Finance Conventional Wisdom circa 1950 Efficient Markets Hypothesis “Once you attain competency, Single-Factor Asset Pricing Risk/ Eugene F. Fama, diversification is undesirable. One or University of Chicago Return Model two, or at most three or four, securities The Role of Stocks should be bought. Competent William Sharpe Extensive research on stock price investors will never be satisfied James Tobin Nobel Prize in Economics, 1990 patterns. beating the averages by a few small Nobel Prize in Economics, 1981 percentage points.” Capital Asset Pricing Model: Develops Efficient Markets Hypothesis, Separation Theorem: Theoretical model defines risk as which asserts that prices reflect values Gerald M. Loeb, The Battle for Investment 1. Form portfolio of risky assets. volatility relative to market. and information accurately and quickly. Survival, 1935 2. Temper risk by lending and It is difficult if not impossible to capture borrowing. A stock’s cost of capital (the investor’s returns in excess of market returns The Birth of Index Funds Analyze securities one by one. Focus expected return) is proportional to the without taking greater than market John McQuown, on picking winners. Concentrate Shifts focus from security selection to stock’s risk relative to the entire stock levels of risk. Wells Fargo Bank, 1971; holdings to maximize returns. portfolio structure. universe. Rex Sinquefield, Investors cannot identify superior American National Bank, 1973 Broad diversification is considered “Liquidity Preference as Behavior Theoretical model for evaluating the stocks using fundamental information undesirable. Toward Risk,” Review of Economic risk and expected return of securities or price patterns. Banks develop the first passive S&P Studies, February 1958. and portfolios. 500 Index funds. 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Diversification and Portfolio Risk Investments and Capital Behavior of Securities Prices First Major Study of Manager Options Pricing Model Harry Markowitz Structure Paul Samuelson, MIT Performance Fischer Black, Nobel Prize in Economics, 1990 Merton Miller and Franco Modigliani Nobel Prize in Economics, 1970 Michael Jensen, 1965 University of Chicago; Nobel Prizes in Economics, A.G. Becker Corporation, 1968 Myron Scholes, Diversification reduces risk. 1990 and 1985 Market prices are the best estimates of University of Chicago; value. First studies of mutual funds (Jensen) Robert Merton, Assets evaluated not by individual Theorem relating corporate finance to and of institutional plans (A.G. Becker Harvard University characteristics but by their effect on a returns. Price changes follow random patterns. Corp.) indicate active managers Nobel Prize in Economics, 1997 portfolio. An optimal portfolio can be Future share prices are unpredictable. underperform indices. constructed to maximize return for a given A firm’s value is unrelated to its The development of the Options standard deviation. dividend policy. “Proof That Properly Anticipated Becker Corp. gives rise to consulting Pricing Model allows new ways to Prices Fluctuate Randomly,” Industrial industry with creation of “Green Book” segment, quantify, and manage risk. Dividend policy is an unreliable guide Management Review, Spring 1965. performance tables comparing results for stock selection. to benchmarks. The model spurs the development of a market for alternative investments.
  • 10. IT1610.2 Innovations in Finance Multifactor Asset Pricing Model and Value Effect A Major Plan First Eugene Fama and Integrated Equity Commits to Indexing Kenneth French, University of Chicago Eugene F. Fama and New York Telephone Company Kenneth R. French invests $40 million in an S&P 500 Improves on the single-factor asset Index fund. pricing model (CAPM). International Size Effect Increasing exposure to small and value companies relative to their The first major plan to index. The Size Effect Identifies market, size, and “value” Steven L. Heston, K. Geert market weights and integrating the factors in returns. Rouwenhorst, and Roberto E. Wessels portfolio across the full range of Helps launch the era of indexed Rolf Banz, University of Chicago securities may reduce the turnover investing. Develops the three-factor asset pricing Find evidence of higher average and transaction costs normally Analyzed NYSE stocks, model, an invaluable asset allocation returns to small companies in twelve associated with forming an asset “Fund spokesmen are quick to point 1926-1975. and portfolio analysis tool. international markets. allocation from multiple components. out you can’t buy the market averages. It’s time the public could.” Finds that, in the long term, small “Common Risk Factors in the Returns “The Structure of International Stock “Migration,” CRSP Working Paper No. companies have higher expected on Stocks and Bonds,” Journal of Returns and the Integration of Capital 614, Center for Research in Security Burton G. Malkiel, A Random Walk returns than large companies and Financial Economics 33, no. 1 Markets,” Journal of Empirical Finance Prices, University of Chicago, Down Wall Street, 1973 ed. behave differently. (February 1993): 3-56. 2, no. 3 (September 1995): 173-97. February 2007. 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Database of Securities Prices Variable Maturity Strategy Nobel Prize Recognizes Modern since 1926 Implemented Finance Roger Ibbotson and Eugene F. Fama Economists who shaped the way we Rex Sinquefield, invest are recognized, emphasizing Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation With no prediction of interest rates, the role of science in finance. Eugene Fama develops a method of An extensive returns database for shifting maturities that identifies William Sharpe for the Capital Asset multiple asset classes is first optimal positions on the fixed income Pricing Model. developed and will become one of the yield curve. most widely used investment Harry Markowitz for portfolio theory. databases. “The Information in the Term Structure,” Journal of Financial Merton Miller for work on the effect of The first extensive, empirical basis for Economics 13, no. 4 (December firms’ capital structure and dividend making asset allocation decisions 1984): 509-28. policy on their prices. changes the way investors build portfolios.
  • 11. CP1840.8 Evaluating the Maturity Risk/Return Tradeoff Quarterly: 1964–2011 • Not all investors define risk as 14 standard deviation. Some investors may seek to hedge 12 long-term liabilities using long- 10 term bonds. Annualized 8 Compound Returns • Historically, longer-maturity 6 instruments have higher Annualized 4 Standard Deviation standard deviations than shorter-maturity instruments. 2 0 One-Month US Treasury Six-Month US Treasury One-Year US Treasury Five-Year US Treasury Twenty-Year US Bills Bills Notes Notes Government Bond One-Month Six-Month One-Year Five-Year Twenty-Year US Treasury US Treasury US Treasury US Treasury US Govt. Maturity Bills Bills Notes Notes Bonds Annualized Compound Return (%) 5.33 6.07 6.28 7.32 7.77 Annualized Standard Deviation (%) 1.46 1.80 2.35 6.17 11.51 Source: One-Month US Treasury Bills, Five-Year US Treasury Notes, and Twenty-Year (Long-Term) US Government Bonds provided by Ibbotson Associates. Six-Month US Treasury Bills provided by CRSP (1964–1977) and BofA Merrill Lynch (1978–present). One-Year US Treasury Notes provided by CRSP (1964–May 1991) and BofA Merrill Lynch (June 1991–present). Ibbotson data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. The Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; copyright 2012 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Fixed income securities are subject to interest rate risk because the prices of fixed income securities tend to move in the opposite direction of interest rates. In general, fixed income securities with longer maturities are more sensitive to these price changes and may experience greater fluctuation in returns.
  • 12. CP2000.6 MSCI Disclosure Copyright MSCI 2012. Unpublished. All rights reserved. This information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used to create any financial instruments or products or any indices. This information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use it may make or permit to be made of this information. Neither MSCI, any of its affiliates, nor any other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating this information makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such information or the results to be obtained by the use thereof, and MSCI, its affiliates, and each such other person hereby expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any other person involved in or related to compiling, computing, or creating this information have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential, or any other damages (including, without limitation, lost profits) even if notified of, or if it might otherwise have anticipated, the possibility of such damages.

Editor's Notes

  1. Talking Points: Model Portfolio 5 completes this multifactor construction by diversifying outside the US. All four US asset classes are reduced by half, from 15% to 7.5% allocations, and the balance is apportioned equally to five non-US asset classes—international large, small, large value, and small value indexes, and emerging markets blended index. The portfolio’s 60% equity allocation is now evenly split between the US and international markets, with roughly equal exposures to size and BtM. The historical data for the performance period shows Model Portfolio 5 producing the highest annualized compound return of all the portfolios, without an increase in volatility. In fact, adding the global component reduces the variability in the portfolio’s return due to the lower correlation of international and US risk dimensions. Compared to the original 60/40 balanced strategy, Model Portfolio 5 offers higher annualized return with only slightly higher volatility. A globally diversified allocation harnesses the power of markets, manages the risk-return tradeoff, provides broad diversification, and offers calculated exposure to compensating risk factors through structured investing.
  2. Talking Points: The size and BtM effects appear in both US and international markets—strong evidence that the risk factors are systematic across the globe. This graph demonstrates the higher expected returns offered by small cap stocks and value (high-BtM) stocks in the US, non-US developed, and emerging markets. Note that the international and emerging markets data is for a shorter time frame. Small cap stocks are considered riskier than large cap stocks, and value stocks (as defined by a higher book-to-market ratio) are deemed riskier than growth stocks. These higher returns reflect compensation for bearing higher risk. A multifactor approach incorporates both size and value measures—and exposure to non-US markets—in an effort to increase expected returns and reduce portfolio volatility. An effective way to capture these effects is through portfolio structure.
  3. Talking Points: Research shows that most of the variation in returns among equity portfolios can be explained by the portfolios’ relative exposure to three compensated risk factors:   • Market factor—Stocks have higher expected returns than fixed income securities. • Size factor—Small cap stocks have higher expected returns than large cap stocks. • Book-to-Market (BtM) factor—Lower-priced “value” (high BtM) stocks have higher expected returns than higher-priced “growth” stocks (low BtM).   Structuring a portfolio around compensated risk factors can change priorities in the investment process. The focus shifts from returns chasing (through stock picking or market timing) to diversification across multiple asset classes in a portfolio.   The model in this slide illustrates this multifactor approach. Investors receive an average expected return (above T-bills) according to the relative risks they assume in their portfolios. The main factors driving expected returns are sensitivity to the market, sensitivity to small cap stocks (size factor), and sensitivity to value stocks (as measured by book-to-market ratio). Any additional average expected return in the portfolio may be attributed to unpriced risk. Average explanatory power (R 2 ) is for the Fama/French equity benchmark universe. R 2 describes the goodness of fit of a regression model by indicating the proportion of the total variance of the dependent variable explained by the model.
  4. Academic research has identified five risk dimensions that explain most of the relative performance between portfolios.   The three equity risk factors are:   Market—stocks have higher expected returns than fixed income securities. Size—small cap stocks have higher expected returns than large cap stocks. Book-to-Market (BtM)—lower-priced “value” (high BtM) stocks have higher expected returns than higher-priced “growth” stocks (low BtM).   Two additional factors reflect compensated risk in the fixed income markets. These are:   Maturity—longer-term bonds are riskier than shorter-term instruments. Credit—instruments of lower credit quality are riskier than instruments of higher credit quality. The credit factor for 1927–2011 as an annual arithmetic average of 0.63%, composed of the following data series: a. 1927–1972: Ibbotson Long-Term Corporate Bonds minus Ibbotson Long-Term Government Bonds; b. 1973–present: Barclays Capital US Long Credit Baa Index minus Barclays Capital Long US Government Bond Index. Term/Maturity factor for 1927–2011, it was an annual arithmetic average of 2.51%. Data series used are: a. 1927–present: Ibbotson Long-Term Government Bonds minus Ibbotson One-Month US Treasury Bills.   The historical return premiums for these risk factors are documented in the graph. Equities have offered a higher expected return than fixed income, but these stronger premiums come with higher risk.   Structuring a portfolio around compensated risk factors can change many aspects of the investment process. Rather than focusing on individual stock or bond selection, investors work to achieve diversified, controlled exposure to the risk factors that drive expected returns.   An investor first determines his portfolio’s stock/bond mix, and then decides how much additional small cap and value to hold in pursuit of higher expected returns. The level of risk assumed in the fixed income component may depend on why an investor is holding fixed income. For example, an equity-driven investor who wants to reduce portfolio volatility may hold less risky debt instruments, while an investor pursuing higher yield or income may take more maturity and default risk.
  5. This slide documents the frequency with which the value and size premiums have been positive over various time periods in the US stock market from 1926 to 2011.   As the results illustrate, US value stocks have outperformed US growth stocks—and US small cap stocks have outperformed US large cap stocks—in a majority of all the rolling return periods measured. The US value premium has been positive more often than the size premium.   The time periods, which range from five to twenty-five years, are based on annualized returns for rolling 12-month periods (e.g., January-December, February-January, March-February, etc.). The total number of 12-month periods for each time frame is indicated in the footnotes.
  6. This slide documents the frequency with which the value premium, from 1975-2011, and the size premium, from 1970-2011, have been positive over various time periods in the international (non-US) developed stock markets.   In the international markets, value stocks have outperformed growth stocks—and small cap stocks have outperformed large cap stocks—in a majority of all rolling return periods measured. The value premium has been strongly positive more often than the size premium.   The time periods, which range from five to twenty-five years, are based on annualized returns for rolling 12-month periods (e.g., January-December, February-January, March-February, etc.). The total number of 12-month periods for each time frame is indicated in the footnotes.   The set of available data for non-US developed markets is considerably shorter than US markets. As a result, the smaller set of observations can amplify the effect of sustained periods of negative or positive premiums. This may explain part of the frequency difference between the 20-year and 15-year periods for the international small cap premium.
  7. Talking Points: The difference in returns among portfolios is largely determined by relative exposure to the market, small cap stocks, and value stocks. Stocks offer higher expected returns than fixed income due to the higher perceived risk of being in the market. Many economists further believe that small cap and value stocks outperform large cap and growth because the market rationally discounts their prices to reflect underlying risk. The lower prices give investors greater upside as compensation for bearing this risk. Investors who want to earn above-market returns must take higher risks in their portfolio. The cross-hair map illustrates that tilting a portfolio toward small cap and value stocks increases the exposure to risk and expected return. Decreasing this exposure relative to the market results in lower risk and lower expected return.
  8. Talking Points: In both US and non-US strategies, the average actively managed mutual fund is considerably more expensive than the average passively managed fund. The graph compares average expense ratios of actively managed funds to those of passive funds. The ratios are presented as simple averages and weighted averages. The weighted average calculation indicates that larger funds tend to have lower expenses than smaller funds. Active managers, on average, charge more than twice the fees of passive managers. This is also true in the international fund universe, although the differences are not as large due to the higher costs of investing in non-US markets. Nobel laureate William Sharpe has pointed out that active management in aggregate must underperform passive management, not due to controversial financial theories but by the simple laws of arithmetic.
  9. Talking Points: Financial science is a relatively young academic field. But the theories, research, and applications have significantly influenced investment methodology over the last half-century. This timeline offers some of the high points in the evolution of modern finance. Prior to 1950, conventional investment managers shunned diversification in favor of securities analysis and concentrated stock picking. In 1952, Harry Markowitz introduced the modern investment age with his landmark work on building optimal portfolios using diversification and mean-variance analysis. The following two decades brought major developments in asset pricing and market efficiency.
  10. Talking Points: The rise of computing power and stock return databases gave academics the tools to empirically test their theories and develop more advanced models to explain securities behavior. Since the 1970s, this research has led to the introduction of advanced forms of passive investing, while casting increasing doubt on the value of active management. More recently, advanced quantitative methods have given rise to the multifactor approach in portfolio construction, and integrated equity.
  11. Talking Points: Relative performance in fixed income is largely driven by two dimensions: bond maturity and credit quality. Bonds that mature farther in the future are subject to the risk of unexpected changes in interest rates. Bonds with lower credit quality are subject to the risk of default.   Extending bond maturities and reducing credit quality increases potential returns, although these returns come with higher volatility, as measured by standard deviation.   By understanding the dimensions of risk in the bond market, investors may better determine their risk/return profile and estimate the total risk exposure necessary to pursue their expected return goals. Investors seeking the greater expected returns of stocks may choose to focus on equities and keep their bond portfolio short and high in quality. Investors who prefer the lower risk of fixed income can still target higher expected returns by holding bonds with slightly longer maturities and slightly lower credit quality.
  12. This slide must be included in all presentations with slides that contain MSCI data. The disclosure indicates that MSCI data may only be used internally and cannot be distributed; however that message is meant for individual investors. Under a special agreement with MSCI, advisors may redistribute the data provided in these slides. The agreement only covers these slides.