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DV1000.2

Diversification

I.

The Impact of Volatility

II.

The Randomness of Returns

III.

The Randomness of Returns: Bonds

IV.

The Randomness of Returns: Sectors

V.

Model Portfolio: Allocations

VI.

Model Portfolio: Historical Returns

VII. Equity Returns of Emerging Markets
VIII. Equity Returns of Developed Markets
IX.

World Market Capitalization
DV1010.2

The Impact of Volatility

Impact on a Hypothetical $100,000 Portfolio
Year 1
Return

Year 2
Return

Average
Return

Compound
Return

Value at End
of Year 2

Portfolio #1

50%

-50%

0%

-13.4%

$75,000

Portfolio #2

10%

-10%

0%

-0.5%

$99,000

For illustrative purposes only.

2
DV1030.10

The Randomness of Returns
Annual Return (%)
1998

Lowest Return

US Large Cap
US Large Cap Value
US Small Cap
US Small Cap Value
US Real Estate
Intl Large Cap Value
Intl Small Cap
Intl Small Cap Value
Emerging Markets
One-Year US Fixed
Five-Year US Government Fixed
Five-Year Global Fixed

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

28.6
23.1
15.6
10.2
9.7
8.4
7.8
5.9
-2.6
-6.4
-17.0
-25.3

66.4
33.0
30.2
21.5
21.3
21.0
7.4
4.0
3.6
1.9
-1.5
-2.6

31.0
22.8
9.0
8.3
7.3
7.0
4.0
-2.0
-3.0
-9.1
-12.3
-30.6

14.0
12.3
8.4
7.3
6.4
2.5
-2.4
-5.6
-6.5
-11.9
-15.4
-16.7

7.6
5.1
3.8
3.6
3.4
-2.9
-6.0
-11.4
-13.8
-15.5
-20.5
-22.1

69.2
66.8
60.2
56.3
47.3
46.0
36.2
30.0
28.7
2.0
1.9
1.5

35.1
33.2
32.1
30.6
26.0
22.3
18.3
16.5
10.9
2.7
1.3
0.8

34.5
24.1
22.6
15.1
13.8
7.0
4.9
4.7
4.6
3.1
2.4
1.3

36.0
33.0
32.6
27.5
26.3
23.5
22.2
18.4
15.8
4.3
4.1
3.8

39.8
8.2
8.0
6.3
6.3
6.2
5.9
5.5
-0.2
-1.6
-9.8
-17.6

8.8
6.6
4.7
-28.9
-33.8
-36.8
-37.0
-39.2
-42.5
-45.1
-47.1
-53.2

79.0
48.6
47.8
44.8
28.5
27.2
26.5
20.6
19.7
2.3
0.8
0.2

28.1
26.9
24.5
20.7
19.2
19.2
15.5
15.1
13.3
3.7
2.0
0.8

9.4
3.4
2.3
2.1
0.6
0.4
-4.2
-5.5
-15.1
-15.6
-17.1
-18.2

21.2
18.6
18.2
18.1
17.5
17.1
16.8
16.4
16.0
2.1
0.9
0.2

1998

Highest Return

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

28.6
15.6
-2.6
-6.4
-17.0
23.1
10.2
9.7
-25.3
5.9
7.8
8.4

21.0
7.4
21.3
-1.5
-2.6
33.0
30.2
21.5
66.4
4.0
1.9
3.6

-9.1
7.0
-3.0
22.8
31.0
4.0
-12.3
-2.0
-30.6
7.3
9.0
8.3

-11.9
-5.6
2.5
14.0
12.3
-15.4
-16.7
-6.5
-2.4
7.3
8.4
6.4

-22.1
-15.5
-20.5
-11.4
3.6
-13.8
-2.9
3.8
-6.0
3.4
7.6
5.1

28.7
30.0
47.3
46.0
36.2
69.2
60.2
66.8
56.3
1.5
2.0
1.9

10.9
16.5
18.3
22.3
33.2
30.6
32.1
35.1
26.0
0.8
1.3
2.7

4.9
7.0
4.6
4.7
13.8
15.1
22.6
24.1
34.5
2.4
1.3
3.1

15.8
22.2
18.4
23.5
36.0
33.0
26.3
27.5
32.6
4.3
3.8
4.1

5.5
-0.2
-1.6
-9.8
-17.6
6.3
8.0
6.2
39.8
5.9
8.2
6.3

-37.0
-36.8
-33.8
-28.9
-39.2
-45.1
-47.1
-42.5
-53.2
4.7
8.8
6.6

26.5
19.7
27.2
20.6
28.5
48.6
44.8
47.8
79.0
0.8
0.2
2.3

15.1
15.5
26.9
24.5
28.1
13.3
20.7
19.2
19.2
0.8
3.7
2.0

2.1
0.4
-4.2
-5.5
9.4
-17.1
-15.6
-15.1
-18.2
0.6
3.4
2.3

16.0
17.5
16.4
18.1
17.1
21.2
16.8
18.2
18.6
0.2
0.9
2.1

In US dollars. US Large Cap is the S&P 500 Index, provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. US Large Cap Value is the Russell 1000 Value Index. US Small Cap is the Russell 2000 Index. US Small Cap Value is the
Russell 2000 Value Index. Russell data copyright © Russell Investment Group 1997-2013, all rights reserved. US Real Estate is the Dow Jones US Select REIT Index, provided by Dow Jones Indexes. International Value data provided
by Fama/French from Bloomberg and MSCI securities data. International Small Cap data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg, StyleResearch, London Business School, and Nomura Securities data. International Small Cap Value
data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg and StyleResearch securities data. Emerging Markets is the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross dividends), copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved; see MSCI disclosure page for
additional information. One-Year US Fixed is the BofA Merrill Lynch One-Year US Treasury Note Index, used with permission; copyright 2013 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Five-Year US
Government Fixed is the Barclays Capital Treasury Bond Index 1-5 Years, formerly Lehman Brothers, provided by Barclays Bank PLC. Five-Year Global Fixed is the Citigroup World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years (hedged),
copyright 2013 by Citigroup. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

3
DV1030.9

Model Portfolio: Allocations
Model
Portfolio 1

Model
Portfolio 4

Model
Portfolio 5

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

US STOCKS

Model
Portfolio 3

60%

EQUITY

Model
Portfolio 2

60%

60%

60%

30%

60.0%

60.0%

30.0%

15.0%

7.5%

US Large Cap

S&P 500 Index

US Large Cap Value

Fama/French US Large Cap Value Research Index

—

—

—

15.0%

7.5%

US Small Cap

Fama/French US Small Cap Index

—

—

30.0%

15.0%

7.5%

US Small Cap Value

Fama/French US Small Cap Value Research Index

—

—

—

15.0%

7.5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

30%

NON-US STOCKS
International Large Cap Value

Fama/French International Value Index

—

—

—

—

15.0%

International Small Cap

International Small Cap Index

—

—

—

—

15.0%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

—

40.0%

40.0%

40.0%

40.0%

40.0%

—

—

—

—

FIXED INCOME
One-Year US Fixed

BofA Merrill Lynch One-Year US Treasury Note Index

US Fixed (all maturities)

Barclays Capital US Government/Credit Bond Index

International Small Cap Index data compiled by Dimensional.
The returns and other characteristics of the allocation mixes contained in this presentation are based on model/back-tested simulations to demonstrate broad economic principles. They were achieved with the benefit of hindsight
and do not represent actual investment performance. There are limitations inherent in model performance; it does not reflect trading in actual accounts and may not reflect the impact that economic and market factors may have had
on an advisor’s decision making if the advisor were managing actual client money. Model performance is hypothetical and is for illustrative purposes only. Model performance shown includes reinvestment of dividends and other
earnings but does not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees or other expenses. Clients’ investment returns would be reduced by the advisory fees and other expenses they would incur in the management of their
accounts. For illustrative purposes only. The balanced strategies are not recommendations for an actual allocation. Indexes are not available for direct investment.
Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Not to be construed as investment advice.

4
DV1030.9

Model Portfolio: Historical Returns
Annual Return (%)
1998

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

21.63

16.76

5.82

8.12

-6.61

31.75

14.80

8.93

15.27

3.19

5.81

-9.18

26.31

11.04

11.69

14.32

-1.02

0.48

-9.87

25.46

10.82
Lowest Return

2000

19.89

Highest Return

1999

11.64

-2.70

-3.30 -11.19

9.92

10.35

-3.50

-3.91 -12.01

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

16.42

6.29 -21.22

24.75

13.75

5.37

11.96

5.74

13.70

5.74 -21.40

22.27

12.94

1.96

11.83

9.31

4.15

11.69

4.18 -21.90

20.75

12.24

0.00

11.64

18.89

8.31

3.92

11.14

3.29 -22.27

17.77

11.96

-1.58

10.09

17.49

6.85

3.90

10.91

1.60 -24.72

16.29

9.66

-5.48

9.66

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Model Portfolio 1

21.63

11.64

-1.02

-3.30

-9.18

18.89

8.31

3.92

Model Portfolio 2

19.89

14.32

-2.70

-3.91 -12.01

17.49

6.85

Model Portfolio 3

10.82

16.76

-3.50

5.81 -11.19

25.46

Model Portfolio 4

9.92

10.35

5.82

8.12

-9.87

Model Portfolio 5

11.69

15.27

3.19

0.48

-6.61

2007

2007

Annual
Annualized Standard
2012
Return Deviation

2008

2009

2010

2011

10.91

6.29 -21.40

17.77

12.24

5.37

11.64

5.64

11.34

3.90

11.14

5.74 -21.90

16.29

9.66

1.96

9.66

4.46

11.46

9.31

4.15

11.69

3.29 -22.27

22.27

13.75

0.00

10.09

5.71

12.34

26.31

11.04

5.74

13.70

1.60 -21.22

20.75

12.94

-1.58

11.96

6.40

11.62

31.75

14.80

8.93

16.42

4.18 -24.72

24.75

11.96

-5.48

11.83

7.02

13.68

Assumes all strategies have been rebalanced quarterly.
The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Fama/French data provided by Fama/French. International Small Cap data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg, StyleResearch, London Business
School, and Nomura Securities data. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved; see MSCI disclosure page for additional information. The Merrill Lynch indices are used with permission; copyright 2013 Merrill Lynch,
Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Barclays Capital data, formerly Lehman Brothers, provided by Barclays Bank PLC. The returns and other characteristics of the allocation mixes contained in this
presentation are based on model/back-tested simulations to demonstrate broad economic principles. They were achieved with the benefit of hindsight and do not represent actual investment performance. There are limitations
inherent in model performance; it does not reflect trading in actual accounts and may not reflect the impact that economic and market factors may have had on an advisor’s decision making if the advisor were managing actual
client money. Model performance is hypothetical and is for illustrative purposes only. Model performance shown includes reinvestment of dividends and other earnings but does not reflect the deduction of investment advisory
fees or other expenses. Clients’ investment returns would be reduced by the advisory fees and other expenses they would incur in the management of their accounts. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Index
performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not to be construed as investment advice.

5
DV1032.1

The Randomness of Returns: Sectors
Annual Return (%)
1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

61.93

82.58

54.05

3.63

-6.31

50.32

38.05

40.83

39.41

32.88

-16.09

61.85

30.53

18.46

32.39

49.92

25.07

45.67

1.41

-6.63

41.04

23.25

14.75

21.76

27.51

-23.35

53.60

24.87

13.39

29.05

38.70

23.95

38.42

1.31

-9.09

37.62

19.24

8.11

19.74

17.18

-28.11

50.17

24.16

11.90

24.56

31.22

23.46

26.76

0.86

-13.09

34.83

17.94

6.03

17.57

16.56

-38.17

35.63

23.38

5.05

19.32

17.79

17.65

7.24

-7.11

-21.08

32.09

15.39

5.96

15.44

12.58

-38.39

33.97

23.16

4.06

16.46

13.86

12.79

0.29

-12.77

-23.84

26.07

14.39

5.17

15.12

11.95

-39.41

24.05

14.46

0.64

15.28

10.28

1.81

-14.16

-14.86

-23.78

24.71

12.53

3.69

14.98

8.05

-41.22

20.97

13.39

-0.38

13.30

8.54

Highest Return

-2.89

-25.78

-16.67

-23.58

19.84

10.10

3.01

11.90

0.20

-41.99

15.62

11.81

-0.71

10.08

-7.05

-6.66

-35.38

-17.44

-37.31

18.87

3.51

-1.40

10.87

-8.69

-48.14

14.55

7.31

-14.12

4.32

-15.90

-14.64

-40.14

-28.40

-38.33

17.43

0.79

-6.04

6.65

-17.88

-51.35

11.76

5.11

-16.51

2.19

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Morningstar SEC/Basic Materials

-7.05

23.95

-14.16

0.86

-9.09

37.62

17.94

5.96

14.98

27.51

-48.14

53.60

24.87

-14.12

16.46

Morningstar SEC/Consumer Cyclical

49.92

23.46

-40.14

-17.44

-37.31

19.84

14.39

-6.04

39.41

0.20

-38.17

35.63

23.16

0.64

32.39

Morningstar SEC/Consumer Dfnsve

31.22

17.65

-25.78

3.63

-23.78

41.04

15.39

-1.40

11.90

-8.69

-41.22

50.17

30.53

4.06

24.56

Morningstar SEC/Energy

17.79

-2.89

7.24

1.41

-6.31

17.43

10.10

3.01

15.12

12.58

-16.09

15.62

14.46

13.39

10.08

-15.90

25.07

45.67

-14.86

-6.63

26.07

38.05

40.83

19.74

32.88

-38.39

33.97

23.38

5.05

4.32

Morningstar SEC/Healthcare

10.28

1.81

26.76

-7.11

-13.09

32.09

12.53

6.03

17.57

-17.88

-51.35

14.55

11.81

-16.51

29.05

Morningstar SEC/Industrials

38.70

-6.66

38.42

-12.77

-21.08

18.87

3.51

8.11

6.65

8.05

-23.35

20.97

5.11

11.90

19.32

Morningstar SEC/Technology

8.54

12.79

0.29

1.31

-23.58

34.83

19.24

5.17

15.44

11.95

-39.41

24.05

24.16

-0.71

15.28

61.93

82.58

-35.38

-28.40

-38.33

50.32

0.79

3.69

10.87

16.56

-41.99

61.85

13.39

-0.38

13.30

13.86

-14.64

54.05

-16.67

-23.84

24.71

23.25

14.75

21.76

17.18

-28.11

11.76

7.31

18.46

2.19

Lowest Return

Morningstar SEC/Financial Svc

Morningstar SEC/Communication Svc
Morningstar SEC/Utilities

Mutual fund universe statistical data and non-Dimensional money managers' fund data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar’s Sector Index family consists of 11 sector indices that track the US equity market using a
consumption-based analysis of economic sectors in a comprehensive, non-overlapping structure. Index constituents are drawn from the available pool of US-domiciled stocks that trade on one of the three major US exchanges.
Real Estate Sector Index is not included in the above illustration. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
DV1037.3

Equity Returns of Emerging Markets
Annual Return (%)
1998
Highest
Return

Lowest
Return

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Korea
Turkey
Czech Rep.
Russia
Czech Rep.
Thailand
Colombia
Egypt
China
Peru
Morocco
Brazil
Thailand
Indonesia
Turkey
141.15
252.41
1.62
55.85
44.16
144.56
132.95
161.59
82.87
94.74
-10.87
128.62
56.27
6.50
64.87
Morocco
Russia
Poland
Korea
Indonesia
Turkey
Egypt
Colombia
Indonesia
Brazil
Colombia
Indonesia
Peru
Malaysia
Philippines
24.57
247.06
-4.04
48.71
42.83
125.88
126.23
107.52
74.83
79.99
-25.10
127.63
53.35
0.12
47.56
Philippines
Malaysia
Brazil
Colombia
Hungary
Brazil
Hungary
Russia
Morocco
Turkey
Chile
Russia
Chile
Philippines
Egypt
13.45
114.33
-11.37
45.77
30.69
115.01
92.49
73.77
68.58
74.81
-35.37
104.91
44.81
0.10
47.10
Thailand
Indonesia
Chile
Peru
Peru
Peru
Czech Rep.
Korea
Peru
India
South Africa
India
Colombia
Thailand
Poland
11.56
93.46
-15.14
19.92
30.50
94.32
87.25
58.00
62.55
73.11
-37.89
102.81
43.41
-2.40
40.97
Czech Rep.
Korea
Malaysia
Mexico
South Africa
Egypt
Poland
Brazil
Philippines
China
Peru
Turkey
Malaysia
Czech Rep.
Colombia
0.54
92.42
-15.95
18.55
27.99
91.84
61.52
57.05
59.65
66.24
-40.11
98.49
37.01
-5.02
35.89
Poland
Egypt
South Africa
Taiwan
Thailand
China
Indonesia
Turkey
Russia
Egypt
Malaysia
Chile
Philippines
Colombia
Thailand
-6.69
88.40
-17.19
10.47
27.59
87.57
52.21
56.94
55.93
58.43
-41.21
86.73
35.49
-5.02
34.94
Hungary
India
Mexico
Thailand
Colombia
Chile
Mexico
Mexico
India
Czech Rep. Czech Rep.
Colombia
Indonesia
Korea
Mexico
-8.16
87.35
-20.49
5.25
25.36
84.41
48.32
49.11
51.00
55.93
-42.75
84.35
34.62
-11.76
29.06
Taiwan
Mexico
Morocco
Malaysia
Russia
India
South Africa Czech Rep.
Brazil
Indonesia
Mexico
Taiwan
South Africa
Mexico
India
-20.64
80.07
-21.55
4.56
15.71
78.36
44.91
46.20
45.80
55.03
-42.94
80.25
34.21
-12.11
25.97
India
Brazil
India
Czech Rep.
Korea
Indonesia
Turkey
India
Poland
Morocco
Taiwan
Hungary
Mexico
South Africa
China
-21.24
67.23
-21.74
-2.01
8.62
78.20
42.03
37.57
41.93
48.15
-45.88
77.61
27.61
-14.36
23.10
Egypt
South Africa
Peru
Chile
India
Russia
Brazil
Peru
Mexico
Thailand
Thailand
Thailand
Korea
Morocco
Hungary
-27.00
57.20
-23.82
-2.83
8.38
75.94
36.47
35.00
41.44
46.63
-48.27
77.31
27.15
-14.76
22.79
South Africa
Taiwan
Hungary
Indonesia
Egypt
Colombia
Chile
South Africa
Malaysia
Malaysia
China
Korea
Taiwan
China
Korea
-27.56
52.71
-26.80
-8.49
1.59
66.93
29.01
28.34
37.14
46.07
-50.83
72.06
22.73
-18.24
21.48
Chile
Thailand
Russia
Hungary
Poland
Czech Rep. Philippines
Poland
Czech Rep. Philippines Philippines
Peru
Turkey
Russia
Peru
-28.50
47.16
-30.03
-9.16
1.26
66.20
26.58
24.96
34.69
41.68
-51.87
72.06
21.24
-19.30
20.24
Malaysia
Chile
China
Morocco
Malaysia
Morocco
Korea
Philippines
Hungary
Korea
Egypt
Philippines
India
Chile
South Africa
-30.81
39.01
-30.54
-13.70
-0.66
49.03
22.86
23.92
33.70
32.58
-52.35
67.98
20.95
-20.00
19.01
Indonesia
Poland
Colombia
Brazil
Morocco
South Africa
Morocco
Chile
Chile
Poland
Poland
China
Russia
Taiwan
Taiwan
-31.53
31.50
-38.85
-16.99
-8.42
45.86
22.56
21.62
29.33
25.79
-54.49
62.63
19.40
-20.15
17.66
Mexico
Peru
Egypt
South Africa
Mexico
Philippines
India
China
Taiwan
Russia
Korea
South Africa
Poland
Peru
Russia
-33.53
18.86
-43.71
-17.21
-13.31
42.76
19.11
19.77
20.90
24.79
-55.07
57.82
15.86
-21.37
14.39
Brazil
China
Taiwan
Philippines
China
Taiwan
Malaysia
Hungary
South Africa
Chile
Brazil
Mexico
Morocco
Brazil
Malaysia
-39.62
13.33
-44.90
-19.29
-14.05
42.55
15.17
18.50
20.53
23.68
-56.06
56.63
15.33
-21.59
14.27
Peru
Hungary
Philippines
India
Chile
Korea
Taiwan
Indonesia
Egypt
South Africa Indonesia
Malaysia
Egypt
Poland
Chile
-40.22
11.66
-45.01
-19.45
-19.81
35.94
9.83
15.76
17.08
18.14
-56.20
52.06
12.42
-29.52
8.34
Colombia
Czech Rep.
Turkey
China
Taiwan
Poland
Russia
Morocco
Colombia
Hungary
Hungary
Poland
Brazil
Hungary
Indonesia
-41.71
5.35
-45.65
-24.70
-24.45
35.48
5.69
13.97
13.76
16.80
-61.53
42.51
6.81
-33.65
5.22
China
Philippines
Korea
Poland
Philippines
Mexico
Peru
Thailand
Korea
Colombia
Turkey
Egypt
China
Turkey
Czech Rep.
-42.37
3.32
-49.62
-27.44
-28.98
32.81
3.16
9.16
13.19
15.00
-62.10
39.74
4.83
-35.16
3.48
Turkey
Morocco
Thailand
Turkey
Brazil
Hungary
China
Taiwan
Thailand
Mexico
India
Czech Rep. Czech Rep.
India
Brazil
-52.51
-11.92
-56.27
-32.66
-30.65
32.31
1.89
7.25
11.61
12.15
-64.63
27.77
-1.66
-37.17
0.34
Russia
Colombia
Indonesia
Egypt
Turkey
Malaysia
Thailand
Malaysia
Turkey
Taiwan
Russia
Morocco
Hungary
Egypt
Morocco
-82.99
-14.38
-61.90
-41.30
-35.70
26.61
-0.92
2.29
-6.97
9.13
-73.83
-4.98
-9.58
-46.86
-11.48

Source: MSCI emerging markets country indices (gross dividends) with at least fifteen years of data. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved.
Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

7
DV1037.3

Equity Returns of Emerging Markets
Annual Return (%)

Boxed Return is highest return for the year.

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Brazil

-39.62

67.23

-11.37

-16.99

-30.65

115.01

36.47

57.05

45.80

79.99

-56.06

128.62

6.81

-21.59

0.34

Chile

-28.50

39.01

-15.14

-2.83

-19.81

84.41

29.01

21.62

29.33

23.68

-35.37

86.73

44.81

-20.00

8.34

China

-42.37

13.33

-30.54

-24.70

-14.05

87.57

1.89

19.77

82.87

66.24

-50.83

62.63

4.83

-18.24

23.10

Colombia

-41.71

-14.38

-38.85

45.77

25.36

66.93

132.95

107.52

13.76

15.00

-25.10

84.35

43.41

-5.02

35.89

0.54

5.35

1.62

-2.01

44.16

66.20

87.25

46.20

34.68

55.93

-42.75

27.77

-1.66

-5.02

3.48

-27.00

88.40

-43.71

-41.30

1.59

91.84

126.23

161.59

17.08

58.43

-52.35

39.74

12.42

-46.86

47.10

-8.16

11.66

-26.80

-9.16

30.69

32.31

92.49

18.50

33.70

16.80

-61.53

77.61

-9.58

-33.65

22.79

India

-21.24

87.35

-21.74

-19.45

8.37

78.36

19.11

37.57

51.00

73.11

-64.63

102.81

20.95

-37.17

25.97

Indonesia

-31.53

93.46

-61.90

-8.49

42.83

78.20

52.21

15.76

74.83

55.03

-56.20

127.63

34.62

6.50

5.22

Korea

141.15

92.42

-49.62

48.71

8.62

35.94

22.86

58.00

13.19

32.58

-55.07

72.06

27.15

-11.76

21.48

Malaysia

-30.81

114.33

-15.95

4.56

-0.66

26.61

15.17

2.29

37.14

46.07

-41.21

52.06

37.01

0.12

14.27

Mexico

-33.53

80.07

-20.49

18.55

-13.31

32.81

48.32

49.11

41.44

12.15

-42.94

56.63

27.61

-12.11

29.06

24.57

-11.92

-21.55

-13.70

-8.42

49.03

22.56

13.97

68.58

48.15

-10.87

-4.98

15.33

-14.76

-11.48

-40.22

18.86

-23.82

19.92

30.50

94.32

3.16

35.00

62.55

94.74

-40.11

72.06

53.35

-21.37

20.24

Philippines

13.45

3.32

-45.01

-19.29

-28.98

42.76

26.58

23.92

59.65

41.68

-51.87

67.98

35.49

0.10

47.56

Poland

-6.69

31.50

-4.04

-27.44

1.26

35.48

61.52

24.96

41.93

25.79

-54.49

42.51

15.86

-29.52

40.97

Russia

-82.99

247.06

-30.03

55.85

15.71

75.94

5.69

73.77

55.93

24.79

-73.83

104.91

19.40

-19.30

14.39

South Africa

-27.56

57.20

-17.19

-17.21

27.99

45.86

44.91

28.34

20.53

18.14

-37.89

57.82

34.21

-14.36

19.01

Taiwan

-20.64

52.71

-44.90

10.47

-24.45

42.55

9.83

7.25

20.90

9.13

-45.88

80.25

22.73

-20.15

17.66

11.56

47.16

-56.27

5.25

27.59

144.56

-0.92

9.16

11.61

46.63

-48.27

77.31

56.27

-2.40

34.94

-52.51

252.41

-45.65

-32.66

-35.70

125.88

42.03

56.94

-6.97

74.81

-62.10

98.49

21.24

-35.16

64.87

Czech Republic
Egypt
Hungary

Morocco
Peru

Thailand
Turkey

Source: MSCI emerging markets country indices (gross dividends) with at least fifteen years of data. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved.
Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

8
DV1040.9

Equity Returns of Developed Markets
Annual Return (%)
19 8 8

19 8 9

19 9 0

19 9 1

19 9 2

19 9 3

B elg.

A ustria

UK

H.K.

H.K.

H.K.

53.63

1
03.91

1
0.29

49.52

32.29

1 6.70
1

23.57

44.1
2

40.05

Den.

Ger.

H.K.

Sing.

Japan

US

46.26

9.1
8

A ustral
.
33.64

Switz.

52.67

Highest
Return

1
7.23

67.97

21
.44

37.1
4

Swede
n
37.21

US

US

Switz.

30.07

6.39

45.79

Swede
1n
8.34

Swede
n
33.36

Swede No rway A ustria
n
48.33
45.53
6.33
No rway

Den.

No rway

Sing.

Sing.

42.40

43.94

0.65

24.96

6.28

France

Sing.

Den.

37.87

42.26

-0.91

A ustral France
.
36.40
36.1
5
Japan

Neth.

19 9 5

19 9 6

19 9 7

19 9 8

19 9 9

2000

No rway Switz.

19 9 4

Spain

Switz.
44.25
44.25

B elg.
67.76
67.75

Sing.

Switz. A ustral A ustria Swede A ustria
n
5.85
1.
.68
1
6.55
64.53
71
.52

Italy

Italy

Can.

35.48

52.52

Swede
n
79.74

H.K.

Den.

Spain

Japan

Den.

B elg.

33.08

34.52

49.90

61
.53

3.44

-1
0.89

No rway Neth.
42.04

France France Swede
n
1
7.83
2.81
36.99

Spain No rway

US

France

H.K.

33.38

41
.54

59.52

Neth.

Can.

Spain

US

Can.

Italy

27.71

28.54

25.41

30.1
4

53.74

-1
.33

29.83

Italy
1 .56
1

US

Neth.

Neth.

Ger.

B elg.

B elg.

Neth.

Ger.

Ger.

1
7.80

2.30

35.64

8.24

25.88

27.51

24.57

29.43

Neth.

Den.

B elg.

Neth.

Sing.

H.K.

UK

Neth.

Switz.

35.28

6.68

22.57

27.42

23.77

23.53

29.27

UK

US

UK

Neth.

US

35.79

-3.1
9

1
6.56

-1
.47

Sing.

Switz.

UK

UK

33.32

Swede
n
31
.79

-6.23

1
6.02

-3.65

H.K.

US

Ger.

Switz.

Ger.

28.1
2

30.01

-9.36

1
5.77

-1
0.27

Ger.

Switz.

B elg.

Spain A ustria

20.60
Can.

26.21
Can.

-1
0.98
Sing.

1
7.07

24.30

-1 .66
1

1
5.63
-1
0.65
Swede A ustral
1n
4.42
-1 .
0.82

US

UK

Can.

B elg.

-30.49

76.43

30.73

-2.56

31
.27

US

Sing.

H.K.

Switz.

Sing.

-37.57

73.96

23.23

-6.77

30.96

58.46

-4.31

-1
4.05

-1 .05
1

Den.

Can.

38.39

A ustria Swede
n
56.96
36.28

24.64

45.1
2

31
.43

Den.

Swede
n 43.39

Can.

Spain Sweden

Sing.

No rway

Ger.

29.57

-40.60

22.1
4

-1
0.01

30.90

Den.
38.77
38.77

Sing.

France

H.K.

Can.

B elg.

H.K.

28.35

-43.27

60.1
5

20.45

-1
0.62

28.27

A ustral
.
28.34

Can.

B elg.

Japan A ustral. A ustria

-45.51

57.49

1
5.44

Den.

Ger.

Can.

US
1
4.77

24.50

Can.

Italy

No rway

54.60

32.49

24.26

Den.

Switz.

B elg.

30.82

1
6.33

36.66

Den.
49.25

A ustral A ustral A ustria
.
36.54
30.34
1 .
6.02
36.54

25.90

Neth. A ustral.

25.59

-45.87

56.1
8

Ger.

Spain

Sing.

Spain A ustral. Spain Sweden

-1 2
2.1

22.07

1
4.37

35.99

23.95

-47.35

43.48

1
4.52

-1
2.28

21
.97

H.K.

Neth.

Neth.

Den.

UK

Switz.

Can.

France

32.81

4.66

1
8.78

21
.79

1
3.55

1
7.80

20.04

-1 .53
1

-1
8.61

-1
4.97

40.22

24.98

1
3.85

France
34.48

20.59

-47.56

43.30

1 .79
1

-1
2.71

Spain

Den.

Can.

UK

H.K.

Sing.

Neth.

3.77
Switz.

1
8.31
Ger.

-1
5.23
Spain

38.1
0
Italy

22.27
Can.

Italy
32.49

France

29.78
Italy

Swede
1n
0.31
Ger.

28.53

3.54

1
6.41

-1
5.29

37.83

22.20

Neth.
31
.38
31
.38

A ustria

US

France

Ger.

Neth.

Den.

Sing.

UK

37.60

1
9.57

Italy

No rway Japan

1
9.42

-1
3.83

1 .08
1

25.48

-1
.63

1
2.59

Spain

B elg.

Spain

Japan

Japan

UK

Can.

Sing.

B elg.

1
3.53

1
7.29

-1
3.85

8.92

-21
.45

24.44

-3.04

6.45

1
2.03

Italy

Spain

Spain

B elg.

Spain

9.76

A ustral
-1 .
7.54

Ger.

1 .46
1

8.1
6

-21
.87

23.51

-4.80

France France

6.24

5.05

A ustria A ustria
1
.57

No rway A ustria A ustral
6.02
4.51
-1 .
0.44

0.35

Den.

H.K.

1
2.06

-1
4.74

-22.1
0

-1
6.03

Neth.

Ger.

France

H.K.

6.88

-1
5.59

-22.36

-1
7.79

Spain

Spain

Ger.

Neth.

4.83

-1
5.86

-22.39

-20.83

8.40

Switz.

Japan

UK

34.08

1
5.86

7.35

Italy

US

UK

Switz.

US

-26.59

-23.09

32.06

1
4.96

5.1
4
Spain

Switz.
-7.02

Swede
n
-21
.29

Can.

A ustria

Japan

Sing.

Japan

Sing.

A ustria

Sing.

0.69

-6.86

-23.67

-1
2.88

-9.1
1

Sing.

No rway

B elg.

-30.05

-30.06

-1
4.26

-1
5.50

H.K.

-21 8
.1

-6.1
4

-4.72

Ger.
1 7
6.1

France

Can.

-28.90

B elg.
35.33

Sing.

H.K.

9.1
5

9.05

-23.42

-23.29

-28.25

1
8.48

B elg.

2.28

A ustria Japan

35.91

-1
6.85

Switz.

H.K.

B elg.

Italy

1
.05

-6.28

Japan France

-0.26

Italy

US

France A ustral
.30.86
30.86
9.88

H.K.

-5.1
8

1
7.58

9.92

-2.90

20.90

Den.

Sing.

-1
0.95

28.93

France Swede Swede A ustral A ustria Can.
21
.20
1n
2.92
1n
3.96
1 .
7.62
-1 .96 -20.44
1
A ustral Can.
Den.
UK
US
Switz.
1 .
6.49
1
2.80
8.99
1
2.45
-1
2.84 -21
.38

No rway Spain

64.1
6

48.1
1

1
3.58

-1
5.50

35.21

France

1 2
4.1

-36.1
0

46.71

B elg.

A ustral
1 .1
1. 9

1
.71

Den.

25.52

-1 9
3.1

UK

0.57

UK

43.53

H.K.

1 9
4.1

Lowest
Return

Ger.

63.80

41
.20

-1
4.81

13
.1

Japan No rway

Sing.

UK

28.09

8.39

Japan

B elg.
39.55

Ger.

Japan

Japan

28.31

B elg.

US
1
.36

21
.92

-1 5
2.1

5.95

Sing.

2 0 12

Ger.

Switz. A ustral
.
-1
0.31 49.46

UK

2 0 11

UK

Swede
-1n
4.41

A ustria

-1
0.28

2 0 10

23.23

Can.

Swede A ustria No rway
n
-20.99 -1
2.23 -22.29

Italy
-7.33

2009

B elg.

1
3.77

H.K.

-7.26

2008

Japan No rway Sweden
-29.21 87.07
33.75
Switz. A ustral. Den.

22.62

-1
3.00

Italy

H.K.

Den.

France

-22.22

2007

Spain
49.36
49.36

23.24

Italy

Italy

2006

Can.

Den.

21
.87

-1
.82

France France

US
-1
2.39

2005

No rway Spain No rway A ustria No rway No rway

No rway Japan
-1
2.22

2004

21
.27

1
4.61

Italy

-4.09

-1 .36
1

2003

Ger.

Den.

Neth.

-1 9
9.1

No rway Neth.
31
.70

A ustria A ustral
-5.65
-1.
.34

No rway Spain
-0.89

2002

A ustral
.
-9.95

France A ustral
.
1 .94
1
6.07

UK

Can.

A ustral A ustral
.7
.
35.1
5.40

5.34

28.63

1 .70
1

-3.1
5

35.39

Switz. A ustral
.
6.1
8
9.30

99.40

2001

US

Neth.

-27.72

Swede Swede
n 8 -30.49
n
-27.1

28.41

1
2.24

4.41

Japan

Japan

Ger.

Neth.

US

Italy

-28.1
6

-29.40

-33.1
8

28.09

1 4
0.1

1
.90

UK
30.61
30.61
H.K.
30.35
30.35

1
3.24
UK
8.36
Italy

US
1
4.67
1
4.67
Japan
6.24
6.24

21
.29
Neth.
20.59
Switz.
20.35

Den.

UK

Den.

No rway

6.06

Swede
n
-49.86

36.57

8.76

-1
6.02

1
8.65

US

Italy

France

Ger.

H.K.

US

5.44

-49.98

31
.83

8.44

-1
6.02

1
5.33

Switz. A ustral
.
5.29
-50.67

Italy

Neth.

France

UK

26.57

1
.74

-1
6.87

1
5.25

H.K.

US

B elg.

Sing.

Italy

-51
.21

26.25

-0.42

-1
7.92

1
2.48

Ger.

Can.

Switz. A ustria
27.40
27.40
2.1
7
Can.
1
7.80
1
7.80

A ustria No rway Japan
-48.22 43.20
1
0.95
-1
4.33
UK
Neth. A ustria Sweden
-48.34 42.25
9.88
-1
5.98

Swede No rway Switz. France
n
0.62
-64.24
25.31
-4.1
1
B elg.
B elg.
Ger.
Italy
-2.73
-66.48
25.1
5
-1
5.01
Japan A ustria
-4.23

-68.41

-1
8.08

9.09

Italy

Japan

-23.1
8

8.1
8

Japan

Spain

A ustria Spain

6.25

-21
.95

-36.43

In US dollars.
Source: MSCI developed markets country indices (net dividends) with at least twenty-five years of data. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved; see MSCI disclosure page for additional information. Indexes are not
available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

3.00

9
DV1040.9

Equity Returns of Developed Markets
Annual Return (%)
Boxed Return is highest return for the year.

1988

Australia
Austria

36.40

1989

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

33.64 -10.82

35.17

5.40

11.19

16.49 -10.44

6.07

17.62

-9.95

1.68

-1.34

49.46

30.34

16.02

30.86

28.34 -50.67

76.43

14.52 -10.95

22.07

6.33 -12.23 -10.65

28.09

-6.28

-4.72

4.51

1.57

0.35

-9.11 -11.96

-5.65

16.55

56.96

71.52

24.64

36.54

2.17 -68.41

43.20

9.88 -36.43

25.90

1990

9.30 -17.54

0.57 103.91

1991

Belgium

53.63

17.29 -10.98

13.77

-1.47

23.51

8.24

25.88

12.03

13.55

67.75 -14.26 -16.85 -10.89 -14.97

35.33

43.53

9.05

36.66

-2.73 -66.48

57.49

-0.42 -10.62

39.55

Canada

17.07

24.30 -13.00

11.08 -12.15

17.58

-3.04

18.31

28.54

12.80

-6.14

53.74

5.34 -20.43 -13.19

54.60

22.20

28.31

17.80

29.57 -45.51

56.18

20.45 -12.71

9.09

Denmark

52.67

43.94

16.56 -28.25

32.81

3.77

18.78

21.79

34.52

8.99

12.06

3.44 -14.81 -16.03

49.25

30.82

24.50

38.77

25.59 -47.56

36.57

30.73 -16.02

31.27

France

37.87

36.15 -13.83

17.83

2.81

20.91

-5.18

14.12

21.20

11.94

41.54

29.27

-4.31 -22.36 -21.18

40.22

18.48

9.88

34.48

13.24 -43.27

31.83

-4.11 -16.87

21.29

Germany

20.60

46.26

-9.36

8.16 -10.27

35.64

4.66

16.41

13.58

24.57

29.43

20.04 -15.59 -22.39 -33.18

63.80

16.17

9.92

35.99

35.21 -45.87

25.15

8.44 -18.08

30.90

Hong Kong

28.12

8.39

9.17

32.29 116.70 -28.90

22.57

33.08 -23.29

-2.92

59.52 -14.74 -18.61 -17.79

38.10

24.98

8.40

30.35

41.20 -51.21

60.15

23.23 -16.02

28.27

Italy

11.46

19.42 -19.19

-1.82 -22.22

28.53

11.56

1.05

12.59

35.48

52.52

-0.26

-7.33

37.83

32.49

1.90

32.49

6.06 -49.98

26.57 -15.01 -23.18

12.48

Japan

35.39

1.71 -36.10

8.92 -21.45

25.48

21.44

0.69 -15.50 -23.67

5.05

61.53 -28.16 -29.40 -10.28

35.91

15.86

25.52

6.24

-4.23 -29.21

6.25

15.44 -14.33

8.18

Netherlands

14.19

35.79

2.30

35.28

11.70

27.71

27.51

-4.09 -22.10 -20.83

28.09

12.24

13.85

31.38

20.59 -48.22

42.25

1.74 -12.12

20.59

Norway

42.40

45.53

0.65 -15.50 -22.29

42.04

23.57

6.02

28.63

-0.89 -12.22

-7.26

48.11

38.39

24.26

45.12

31.43 -64.24

87.07

10.95 -10.01

18.65

Singapore

33.32

42.26 -11.66

6.28

67.97

6.68

6.45

-6.86 -30.05 -12.88

99.40 -27.72 -23.42 -11.05

37.60

22.27

14.37

46.71

28.35 -47.35

73.96

22.14 -17.92

30.96

Spain

13.53

9.76 -13.85

15.63 -21.87

29.78

-4.80

29.83

40.05

25.41

49.90

4.83 -15.86 -11.36 -15.29

58.46

28.93

4.41

49.36

23.95 -40.60

43.48 -21.95 -12.28

3.00

Sweden

48.33

31.79 -20.99

14.42 -14.41

36.99

18.34

33.36

37.21

12.92

13.96

79.74 -21.29 -27.18 -30.49

64.53

36.28

10.31

43.39

0.62 -49.86

64.16

33.75 -15.98

21.97

-0.91

-3.19

49.52

17.80

24.96

23.77

23.23

6.88

6.24 -30.06

31.70

-1.33 -26.59

Switzerland

6.18

26.21

-6.23

15.77

17.23

45.79

3.54

44.12

2.28

44.25

23.53

-7.02

5.85 -21.38 -10.31

34.08

14.96

16.33

27.40

5.29 -30.49

25.31

11.79

-6.77

20.35

UK

5.95

21.87

10.29

16.02

-3.65

24.44

-1.63

21.27

27.42

22.62

17.80

12.45 -11.53 -14.05 -15.23

32.06

19.57

7.35

30.61

8.36 -48.34

43.30

8.76

-2.56

15.25

US

14.61

30.01

-3.15

30.07

6.39

9.15

1.13

37.14

23.24

33.38

30.14

21.92 -12.84 -12.39 -23.09

28.41

10.14

5.14

14.67

5.44 -37.57

26.25

14.77

1.36

15.33

In US dollars.
Source: MSCI developed markets country indices (net dividends) with at least twenty-five years of data. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved; see MSCI disclosure page for additional information. Indexes are not
available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

10
DV1060.7

World Market Capitalization
$37.5 Trillion as of December 31, 2012
 Developed Markets
 Emerging Markets
 Frontier Markets

Capitalization over time
($ trillions):

In US dollars. Market cap data is free-float adjusted from Bloomberg securities data. Many small nations not displayed. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.
For educational purposes; should not be used as investment advice. 1. An example large cap stock provided for comparison.

11
ME1100.4

Market Efficiency

I.

Peter Lynch

II.

Warren E. Buffett

III.

Efficient Markets Hypothesis

IV.

US Large Cap Returns

V.

The Failure of Active Management

VI.

The Mutual Fund Landscape

VII. Morningstar Predictive Power
ME1120.4

Peter Lynch

―All the time and effort that people devote to picking
the right fund, the hot hand, the great manager,
have in most cases led to no advantage.‖

Peter Lynch, Beating the Street (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1993), 60.

13
ME1130.2

Warren E. Buffett
Chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway, Inc.

―Most investors, both institutional and individual, will
find that the best way to own common stocks is
through an index fund that charges minimal fees.‖

Berkshire Hathaway Inc., 1996 Annual Report, chairman’s letter, in www.berkshirehathaway.com.

14
ME1140.2

Efficient Markets Hypothesis
Eugene F. Fama, University of Chicago

The Hypothesis States:
• Current prices incorporate all available information and expectations.
• Current prices are the best approximation of intrinsic value.
• Price changes are due to unforeseen events.
• ―Mispricings‖ do occur but not in predictable patterns that can lead to consistent outperformance.

Implications
• Active management strategies cannot consistently add value through security selection and
market timing.
• Passive investment strategies reward investors with capital market returns.

Eugene F. Fama, ―Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work,‖ Journal of Finance 25, no. 2 (May 1970): 383-417.
Eugene F. Fama, ―Foundations of Finance,‖ Journal of Finance 32, no. 3 (June 1977): 961-64.

15
ME1150.7

US Large Cap Returns
1997-2012
16

Annualized Compound Return (%)
S&P 500 Index
CRSP 1-10 Index

Annualized Compound Returns (%)

5.34

Morningstar Fund Average

14

4.75

4.71

12

10

8

CRSP 1-10 Index
S&P 500 Index
Morningstar Fund Average

6

4

2

0
0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225 250 275 300
Number of Funds

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

Source: Morningstar data provided by Morningstar Inc. Includes all Morningstar US large cap funds with fifteen-year returns, distinct portfolios only, as of December 31, 2012. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s
Index Services Group. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago.
Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money.

16
ME1160.8

The Failure of Active Management
Percentage of active public equity funds that failed to beat the index
Five Years as of December 2012

100%
90%
90%

% of Active Funds That Failed
to Outperform Benchmark

83%
80%

75%

76%

74%

70%
62%
60%
50%
40%
30%
21%
20%
10%
0%
US Large Cap

US Mid Cap

US Small Cap

Global

International

International Small

Emerging Markets

Equity Fund Category

Source: Standard & Poor’s Indices Versus Active Funds Scorecard, year-end 2012. Index used for comparison: US Large Cap—S&P 500 Index; US Mid Cap—S&P MidCap 400 Index; US Small Cap—S&P SmallCap 600
Index; Global Funds—S&P Global 1200 Index; International—S&P 700 Index; International Small—S&P World ex. US SmallCap Index; Emerging Markets—S&P IFCI Composite. Data for the SPIVA study is from the CRSP
Survivor-Bias-Free US Mutual Fund Database.

17
ME1160.8

The Failure of Active Management
Percentage of active public fixed income funds that failed to beat the index
Five Years as of December 2012

100%

95%

94%

90%

% of Active Funds That Failed
to Outperform Benchmark

90%
80%

76%

70%
60%

59%

60%
50%
50%

40%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Government
Long

Government
Intermediate

Government
Short

InvestmentGrade
Long

InvestmentGrade
Intermediate

InvestmentGrade
Short

National
Muni

CA Muni

Fixed Income Category

Source: Standard & Poor’s Indices Versus Active Funds Scorecard, year-end 2012. Index used for comparison: Government Long—Barclays Capital US Long Government Index; Government Intermediate—Barclays Capital US
Intermediate Government Index; Government Short—Barclays Capital US 1-3 Year Government Index; Investment Grade Long—Barclays Capital US Long Government/Credit; Investment Grade Intermediate—Barclays Capital
US Intermediate Government/Credit; Investment Grade Short—Barclays Capital US 1-3 Year Government/Credit; National Muni—S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index; CA Muni—S&P California AMT-Free Municipal
Bond Index. Data for the SPIVA study is from the CRSP Survivor-Bias-Free US Mutual Fund Database. Barclays Capital data, formerly Lehman Brothers, provided by Barclays Bank PLC.

18
ME1161.1

The Mutual Fund Landscape
2013 report

19
ME1161.1

The US Mutual Fund Industry
Number of equity and fixed income funds, 2012

Number of funds as of December 2012. International equities include all non-US developed funds. Global fixed includes all non-US funds, both developed and emerging markets. See Data Appendix for more information.
Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

20
ME1161.1

The US Mutual Fund Industry
Assets under management (in USD billions)
2003 2012

Assets under management as of the end of each December from 2003 to 2012. International equities include all non-US developed funds. Global fixed includes all non-US funds, both developed and emerging markets.
See Data Appendix for more information. Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

21
ME1161.1

Survivorship and Outperformance
Performance periods ending December 31, 2012—equity funds

Beginning sample includes funds as of the beginning of the one-, five-, and 10-year periods ending in 2012. The number of funds as of the beginning of each sample time period is indicated below the period label.
Survivors are funds that are still in existence as of December 2012. Winners are funds that survive and beat their respective benchmarks over the period. See Data Appendix for more information.
Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

22
ME1161.1

Survivorship and Outperformance
Performance periods ending December 31, 2012—fixed income funds

Beginning sample includes funds as of the beginning of the one-, five-, and 10-year periods ending in 2012. The number of funds as of the beginning of each sample time period is indicated below the period label.
Survivors are funds that are still in existence as of December 2012. Winners are funds that survive and beat their respective benchmarks over the period. See Data Appendix for more information.
Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

23
ME1161.1

Do Winners Keep Winning?
Past performance vs. subsequent performance—equity funds

The sample includes funds at the beginning of the three-, five-, and seven-year periods, ending in December 2009. The graph shows the proportion of funds that outperform and underperform their respective benchmarks.
Winner funds are reevaluated in the subsequent period from 2010 to 2012, with the graph showing the proportion of outperformance and underperformance among past winners. See Data Appendix for more information.
Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

24
ME1161.1

Do Winners Keep Winning?
Past performance vs. subsequent performance—fixed income funds

The sample includes funds at the beginning of the three-, five-, and seven-year periods, ending in December 2009. The graph shows the proportion of funds that outperform and underperform their respective benchmarks.
Winner funds are reevaluated in the subsequent period from 2010 to 2012, with the graph showing the proportion of outperformance and underperformance among past winners. See Data Appendix for more information.
Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

25
ME1161.1

High Costs Make Outperformance Difficult
Winners and losers based on expense ratios (%)—equity funds

The sample includes funds at the beginning of the one-, five-, and 10-year periods ending in 2012. Funds are ranked into quartiles based on average expense ratio over the sample period and performance is compared to their
respective benchmarks. The chart shows the proportion of winner and loser funds within each expense ratio quartile. See Data Appendix for more information. Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source:
CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

26
ME1161.1

High Costs Make Outperformance Difficult
Winners and losers based on expense ratios (%)—fixed income funds

The sample includes funds at the beginning of the one-, five-, and 10-year periods ending in 2012. Funds are ranked into quartiles based on average expense ratio over the sample period and performance is compared to their
respective benchmarks. The chart shows the proportion of winner and loser funds within each expense ratio quartile. See Data Appendix for more information. Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source:
CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

27
ME1161.1

High Trading Costs Make Outperformance Difficult
Winners and losers based on turnover (%)—equity funds

The sample includes equity funds at the beginning of the one-, five, and 10-year periods ending in 2012. Funds are ranked into quartiles based on average turnover during the sample period and performance is compared to
their respective benchmarks. The chart shows the proportion of winner and loser funds within each turnover quartile. Fixed income funds are excluded from the analysis because turnover is not a good proxy for fixed income
trading costs. See Data Appendix for more information. Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results.

28
ME1161.1

Report Summary
The mutual fund landscape

Findings
•

Most funds underperformed.

•

Strong track records failed to persist.

•

High costs and excessive turnover may have contributed
to underperformance.

Lessons
•

Markets do a good job of pricing securities.

•

Intense competition makes consistent outperformance difficult.

•

Managers face cost barriers as they try to beat the market.

•

Successful fund investing involves more than picking past winners.

•

Consider a fund’s market philosophy, investment objectives,
strategy, trading costs, and other factors.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

29
ME1161.1

Data Appendix
Research conducted by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Mutual fund data is from the CRSP Mutual Fund Database, provided by the Center for
Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago.
Certain types of equity and fixed income funds were excluded from the performance study. For equities, sector funds and funds with a narrow
investment focus, such as real estate and gold, were excluded. Money market funds, municipal bond funds, and asset-backed security funds were
excluded from fixed income.
Funds are identified using Lipper fund classification codes and are matched to their respective benchmarks at the beginning of the sample periods.
Winner funds are those whose cumulative return over the period exceeded that of their respective benchmark. Loser funds are funds that did not
survive the period or whose cumulative return did not exceed their respective benchmark.
Expense ratio ranges — The ranges of expense ratios for equity funds over the one-, five-, and 10-year periods are 0.02% to 4.95%, 0.01% to
4.47%, and 0.02% to 4.43%, respectively. For fixed income funds, ranges over the same periods are 0.02% to 2.61%, 0.03% to 2.56%, and 0.10% to
2.32%, respectively.
Portfolio turnover ranges — Ranges for equity fund turnover over the one-, five-, and 10-year periods are 1% to 1,135%, 1% to 5,062%, and 1% to
2,447%, respectively.
Benchmark data provided by Barclays, MSCI, and Russell. Barclays data provided by Barclays Bank PLC. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights
reserved. Russell data copyright © Russell Investment Group 1995 2013, all rights reserved.

Benchmark indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an
actual portfolio.
Mutual fund investment values will fluctuate, and shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than original cost. Diversification
neither assures a profit nor guarantees against a loss in a declining market.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

30
RR1200.8

Risk/Return

I.

Capital Asset Pricing Model

IX.

II.

Size and Value Effects Are Strong
around the World

Average US Small Cap and Value
Premiums Following Multi-Year Runs

X.

Precision in Portfolios

XI.

Structure Determines Performance

III.

Historical US Value and Small Cap
Premiums

IV.

Yearly Observations of the US
Size, Value, and Market Premiums

V.

Five-Year Moving Average of the US
Size, Value, and Market Premiums

VI.

Distribution of the US Size, Value, and
Market Premiums

VII. Distribution of the Market Returns
VIII. US Small Cap and Value Performance
Following a Run

XII. Market Premium
XIII. Market Risk Premium Is Countercyclical
XIV. Risk and Return Are Related
XV. The Risk Dimensions Deliver

XVI. Five Factor Help Determine Expected
Return
RR1210.2

Capital Asset Pricing Model
William Sharpe: Nobel Prize in Economics, 1990

Total Equity Risk
Unsystematic
Company
Risk

• Specific to firm or industry (lawsuit, fraud, etc.)
• Diversifiable
Unsystematic

• No compensation

Industry
Risk
Systematic
Market
Risk

Systematic

• Marketwide, affects all firms (war, recession, inflation, etc.)
• Non-diversifiable
• Investor compensation
• Measured by beta

Beta measures volatility relative to the total market. A beta higher than the market’s beta of 1 implies more volatility, and a beta lower than the market’s implies less volatility.

32
RR1221.5

Historical US Value and Small Cap Premiums
Annual

VALUE MINUS GROWTH
Top 30% – Bottom 30%

Average
Premium (%)

Standard
Deviation (%)

SMALL MINUS LARGE
Bottom 50% – Top 50%

Average
Premium (%)

Standard
Deviation (%)

Jan 1926–Dec 2012

4.77

16.60

4.53

16.08

Jan 1946–Dec 2012

4.56

13.83

3.04

13.67

Jan 1975–Dec 2012

3.55

14.53

3.35

12.83

Data provided by Fama/French.

33
RR1222.7

Yearly Observations of the US Size Premium
Small Stocks minus Big Stocks
1927-2012
Average
60%

Within 2% of Average
Premiums within Range

50%
40%

Return Premium

30%
20%
10%

3.58%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
1927

1944

1961

1978

1995

Multifactor data provided by Fama/French.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Securities of small firms are often less
liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Even a long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and issuer-specific events will
cause the value of securities, and the funds that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of investments will fluctuate, there is a risk that investors will lose money.

2012

34
RR1222.7

Yearly Observations of the US Value Premium
Value Stocks minus Growth Stocks
1927-2012
Average

Within 2% of Average
50%

Premiums within Range

40%

30%

Return Premium

20%

10%

4.80%
0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%
1927

1944

1961

1978

1995

Multifactor data provided by Fama/French.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Securities of small firms are often less
liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Even a long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and issuer-specific events will
cause the value of securities, and the funds that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of investments will fluctuate, there is a risk that investors will lose money.

2012

35
RR1222.7

Yearly Observations of the US Market Premium
Market minus One-Month Treasury Bills
1927-2012
Average
60%

Within 2% of Average
Premiums within Range

50%
40%
30%

Return Premium

20%
10%

8.05%

0%

-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
1927

1944

1961

1978

1995

2012

Data provided by Fama/French. Total US Market Research Factor (total market minus one-month Treasury bills).
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Securities of small firms are often less
liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Even a long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and issuer-specific events will
cause the value of securities, and the funds that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of investments will fluctuate, there is a risk that investors will lose money.

36
RR1223.6

Five-Year Moving Average of the US Size and Value Premiums
Annual: 1927–2012
US Size Premium

• On an annualized basis, small
cap and value stocks have had
more positive than negative
five-year periods relative to
large cap and growth stocks.

Annualized Return

25%

• These periods typically offer
stronger performance relative to
large cap and growth.

15%

5%

-5%

-15%
1931

• Small cap and value stocks are
still subject to extended periods
of underperformance.

1940

1949

1958

1967

1958

1967

1976

1985

1994

2003

2012

US Value Premium
20%

Annualized Return

15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
1931

1940

1949

1976

1985

1994

2003

Multifactor data provided by Fama/French. SmB and HmL research factors.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Securities of small firms are often less
liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Even a long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and issuer-specific events will
cause the value of securities, and the funds that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of investments will fluctuate, there is a risk that investors will lose money.

2012
RR1223.6

Five-Year Moving Average of the US Market Premium
Annual: 1927–2012
30%

25%

20%

Annualized Return

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%
1931

1940

1949

1958

1967

1976

1985

1994

2003

2012

Data provided by Fama/French. Total US Market Research Factor (total market minus one-month Treasury bills).
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Securities of small firms are often less
liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Even a long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and issuer-specific events will
cause the value of securities, and the funds that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of investments will fluctuate, there is a risk that investors will lose money.

38
RR1225.6

Distribution of the US Size Premium
1927–2012
18
16

Number of Years

14
12

10
8
6
4
2
0
≥-30%

≥-25%

≥-20%

≥-15%

≥-10%

≥-5%

≥0%

≥5%

≥10%

≥15%

≥20%

≥25%

≥30%

≥35%

≥40%

≥45%

≥50%

Return Premium (Small minus Large)
1998
1929

1973

1990
1989
1987
1972
1970
1969
1937

Average Annual Premium:
3.58%

Green and orange years indicate 1990s and 2000s respectively.
Data provided by Fama/French. SmB research factor.

2011
2007
1995
1986
1984
1963
1962
1955
1952
1948
1947

2005
2000
1997
1996
1994
1974
1964
1960
1957
1956
1954
1953
1951
1946
1941
1930
1927

2012
2008
2006
2004
2002
1985
1966
1961
1950
1949
1940
1931
1928

2009
1993
1992
1988
1982
1981
1980
1971
1959
1942
1939
1935
1932

2010
1983
1978
1976
1958
1938

2001
1999
1991
1975
1944
1936

1979
1977
1968
1965

2003
1945
1934

1943

1967
1933
RR1225.6

Distribution of the US Value Premium
1927–2012
14

Number of Years

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
≥-35%

≥-30%

≥-25%

≥-20%

≥-15%

≥-10%

≥-5%

≥0%

≥5%

≥10%

≥15%

≥20%

≥25%

≥30%

≥35%

2001
1993
1984
1973
1968
1963
1944
1942
1933

1992
1983
1976
1970

1981
1954
1950
1936

1943

2000

Return Premium (Value minus Growth)
1999

1980
1934

1939
1931

Average Annual Premium:
4.80%

Green and orange years indicate 1990s and 2000s respectively.
Data provided by Fama/French. HmL research factor.

2007
1991
1971
1938
1930

2011
2009
1998
1990
1969
1967
1957
1953
1951
1928

2010
1994
1989
1987
1979
1966
1960
1956
1949
1940
1937
1927

2008
2003
1996
1995
1985
1978
1972
1959
1952
1948
1946

2012
2005
2004
2003
1986
1977
1975
1974
1965
1962
1961
1955
1947
1932

2006
2002
1997
1988
1982
1964
1958
1945
1941
1935
1929

40
RR1225.6

Distribution of the US Market Premium
1927–2012
12

Number of Years

10
8
6
4
2
0
≥-50% ≥-45% ≥-40% ≥-35% ≥-30% ≥-25% ≥-20% ≥-15% ≥-10% ≥-5%

≥0%

≥5%

≥10% ≥15% ≥20% ≥25% ≥30% ≥35% ≥40% ≥45% ≥50% ≥55%

Return Premium (Market minus One-Month T-Bills)
1931

2008
1974

1937
1930

1973

2002

2001
2000
1981
1969
1929

1990
1966
1962
1957
1941

1984
1977
1970
1946
1940
1932

1994
1987
1960
1953

Average Annual Premium:
8.05%

Green and orange years indicate 1990s and 2000s respectively.
Data provided by Fama/French. Total US market research factor (total market minus one-month Treasury bills).

2011
2007
2005
1978
1948
1947
1939
1934

1993
1992
1968
1959
1956

2006
2004
1988
1986
1983
1982
1979
1972
1971
1965
1964
1952

2012
2010
1998
1996
1963
1951
1949
1942

1999
1989
1985
1980
1976
1967
1961
1955
1944

2009
1997
1991
1950
1943
1938

2003
1995
1975
1936
1927

1945
1928

1958
1935

1954

1933
RR1226.4

Distribution of US Market Returns
CRSP 1-10 Index Returns by Year
1926–2012
Positive Years:

65

(25%)

1993
11.1
2004
12.0
1959
12.7
1952
13.4
1968
14.1
1965
14.5
2006
15.5
1942
16.0
1964
16.1
1971
16.1
2012
16.2
1986
16.2
1972
16.8
2010
17.9
1988
18.0
10% to 20%

20% to 30%

(75%)

Negative Years: 22

1949
20.2
1951
20.7
1963
21.0
1982
21.0
1944
21.3
1996
21.4
1983
22.0
1979
22.6
1998
24.3
1955
25.2
1999
25.3
1976
26.8
1961
26.9
1938
28.1
1943
28.4
1967
28.7
2009
28.8
1989
28.9
1950
29.6

1931
-43.5

2008
-36.7
1937
-34.7

1930
-28.5
1974
-27.0
2002
-21.1

1973
-18.1
1929
-14.6
2000
-11.4
2001
-11.1
1969
-10.9
1962
-10.2
1957
-10.1
1941
-10.0

1966
-8.7
1932
-8.7
1940
-7.1
1990
-6.0
1946
-5.9
1977
-4.3
1981
-3.6
1994
-0.1

1970
0.0
1953
0.7
2011
0.8
1960
1.2
1987
1.7
1948
2.1
1939
2.9
1947
3.6
1934
4.3
1984
4.5
2007
5.8
2005
6.2
1978
7.5
1956
8.3
1926
9.2
1992
9.8

-50% to -40%

-40% to -30%

-30% to -20%

-20% to -10%

-10% to 0%

0% to 10%

• In 2008, the US stock market
experienced its second worst
performance year since 1926.
• In 2009, US market performance
was in the top quartile of
historical calendar year returns.

1997
31.4
2003
31.6
1985
32.2
1936
32.3
1980
32.8
1927
33.4
1991
34.7
1995
36.8
1945
38.1
1975
38.8
1928
38.9

1935
44.3
1958
45.0
1954
50.0

1933
57.1

30% to 40%

40% to 50%

50% to 60%

Annual Return Range
CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. The CRSP 1-10 Index measures the performance of the total US stock market, which it defines as the aggregate capitalization of all
securities listed on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ exchanges. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
RR1227.6

US Small Cap Performance Following a Run
Annual: January 1946–December 2012

Move to Large when Small
outperforms for at least:

Stay in
Small all
the time

3 Years

4 Years

5 Years

Average Annual Return (%)

15.28

12.63

13.68

14.72

Compound Annualized Return (%)

12.78

10.62

11.49

12.41

Standard Deviation (%)

23.81

21.05

22.31

23.02

• For the period beginning January 1946, implementing a fixed timing strategy based
on the duration of a small cap run would not earn higher returns than simply
holding small cap all the time.
• A small cap run of 3, 4, or 5 years offers no insight into whether small or large cap
stocks will outperform in the next year.

Data provided by Fama/French. The strategy of staying invested in Small Cap all the time is compared to timing rules that switch back and forth between Small Cap and Large Cap based on the length of the Small Cap Run.
Each June 30, the timing rule looks back to see how many years in a row Small Cap has had a higher return than Large Cap. This is the Small Cap Run. If the Small Cap Run is at least 3 years (or 4, or 5), the timing rule
switches to Large Cap for the next twelve months. At the end of those twelve months, the Small Cap Run is computed again, and the process is repeated.

43
RR1227.6

US Value Performance Following a Run
Annual: January 1946–December 2012

Move to Growth when Value
outperforms for at least:

Stay in
Value all
the time

3 Years

4 Years

5 Years

Average Annual Return (%)

16.24

14.38

15.32

15.93

Compound Annualized Return (%)

14.26

12.54

13.40

14.03

Standard Deviation (%)

21.25

20.61

21.04

20.89

• For the period beginning January 1946, implementing a fixed timing strategy based
on the duration of a value run would not earn higher returns than simply holding
value all the time.
• A value run of 3, 4, or 5 years offers no insight into whether value or growth stocks
will outperform in the next year.

Data provided by Fama/French. The strategy of staying invested in Value all the time is compared to timing rules that switch back and forth between Value and Growth based on the length of the Value Run. Each June 30, the
timing rule looks back to see how many years in a row Value has had a higher return than Growth. This is the Value Run. If the Value Run is at least 3 years (or 4, or 5), the timing rule switches to Growth for the next twelve
months. At the end of those twelve months, the Value Run is computed again, and the process is repeated.

44
RR1229.6

Average US Small Cap Premiums Following Multi-Year Runs
Annual

SMALL MINUS LARGE
Run = 3 Years
Average
Premium (%)

Subsequent
Premium (%)

Run = 4 Years

Events

Subsequent
Premium (%)

Run = 5 Years

Events

Subsequent
Premium (%)

Events

Jan 1926–Dec 2012

4.53

10.17

22

7.28

15

2.16

10

Jan 1946–Dec 2012

3.04

10.29

17

8.79

12

4.07

9

Jan 1975–Dec 2012

3.35

7.89

12

9.22

10

6.50

8

• In the January 1926–December 2012 period, there were 22 periods (events) when small cap beat large
cap in three consecutive years. The Subsequent Premium in the following year averaged 10.17% across
the 22 periods.
A small cap run of 3, 4, or 5 years may not increase the likelihood of underperformance in the following year.

Data provided by Fama/French.

45
RR1229.6

Average US Value Premiums Following Multi-Year Runs
Annual

VALUE MINUS GROWTH
Run = 3 Years
Average
Premium (%)

Subsequent
Premium (%)

Run = 4 Years

Events

Subsequent
Premium (%)

Run = 5 Years

Events

Subsequent
Premium (%)

Events

Jan 1926–Dec 2012

4.77

9.16

22

6.32

17

3.32

12

Jan 1946–Dec 2012

4.56

6.79

18

4.32

14

2.02

10

Jan 1975–Dec 2012

3.55

7.15

12

3.33

9

0.26

6

• In the January 1926–December 2012 period, there were 22 periods (events) when value beat growth in three
consecutive years. The Subsequent Premium in the following year averaged 9.16% across the 22 periods.
A value run of 3, 4, or 5 years may not increase the likelihood of underperformance in the following year.

Data provided by Fama/French.
RR1250.2

Precision in Portfolios
Traditional Consulting Style Box

Three-Factor Model
Small
Large
Mid

Growth

Value

Small

Value

Blend

Growth

• Traditionally, ―products‖ have been classified into
rigid and sometimes arbitrary categories.
• Style boxes force crude strategic allocation.

Large
• Using the three-factor model, the total portfolio is
measured by factors that determine risk and
expected return.
• Freedom from brittle definitions allows precisely
tuned portfolios.

47
RR1255.1

Advancements in Research
Single-Factor Model
(1963)
Market

Size Effect
(1981)

Size

Large

Small

Value Effect
(1991)

Expected Profitability
(2012)

Size
Large

Low

Large

High

Small

Low

Small

Size

Direct
Profitability

High

Large

Small

Low

High

Relative Price

Low

High

Relative Price
48
Structure Determines Performance
Structured Exposure to
Factors explain 96% of
return variation

• The vast majority of the variation in
returns is due to risk factor exposure.

• Market
• Size
• Value/Growth

• After fees, traditional management
typically reduces returns.

Unexplained Variation is 4%

THE MODEL TELLS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INVESTING AND SPECULATING
THE MODEL TELLS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INVESTING AND SPECULATING

average
expected return =
[minus T-bills]

average
excess
return

+

sensitivity
to market
[market return
minus T-bills]

+

sensitivity
to size

+

[small stocks
minus big
stocks]

Priced Risk
• Positive expected return
• Systematic
• Economic
• Long-term
• Investing

sensitivity
to BtM
[value stocks
minus
growth]

+

random
error
e(t)

Unpriced Risk
• Noise
• Random
• Short-term
• Speculating
Dimensions of Higher Expected Returns
Annual Average US Premiums: 1927–2012

8.05%

4.80%
3.58%
2.52%

0.85%

1
Market
Premium

2
Size
Premium

3
BtM
Premium

All Equity
Universe
minus T-Bills

Small Stocks
minus
Large Stocks

4

High BtM
minus
Low BtM

1. Credit premium data (1973–2012) provided by Barclays Bank PLC.
Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Equity premiums provided by Fama/French. Maturity premium data provided by © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook©, Ibbotson Associates,
Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).

5
Maturity
Premium

6
Credit1
Premium

LT Govt.
minus
T-Bills

Int. Corp.
minus
LT Govt.
RR1271.5

The Risk Dimensions Delivered
July 1926–December 2012

US Value vs. US Growth

US Small vs. US Large

OVERLAPPING PERIODS

In 25-Year Periods

Value beat growth 100% of the time.

Small beat large 97% of the time.

In 20-Year Periods

Value beat growth 100% of the time.

Small beat large 88% of the time.

In 15-Year Periods

Value beat growth 99% of the time.
95%

Small beat large 82% of the time.

In 10-Year Periods

Value beat growth 96% of the time.
91%

Small beat large 75% of the time.

In 5-Year Periods

Value beat growth 86% of the time.
80%

Small beat large 60% of the time.

Periods based on rolling annualized returns. 739 total 25-year periods. 799 total 20-year periods. 859 total 15-year periods. 919 total 10-year periods. 979 total 5-year periods.
Performance based on Fama/French Research Factors. Securities of small companies are often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Mutual funds
distributed by DFA Securities LLC.
RR1271.5

The Risk Dimensions Delivered

January 1975–December 2012

January 1970–December 2012

International Value vs. International Growth

International Small vs. International Large

OVERLAPPING PERIODS

In 25-Year Periods

Value beat growth 100% of the time.

Small beat large 100% of the time.

In 20-Year Periods

Value beat growth 100% of the time.

Small beat large 97% of the time.

In 15-Year Periods

Value beat growth 100% of the time.

Small beat large 83% of the time.

In 10-Year Periods

Value beat growth 100% of the time.

Small beat large 80% of the time.

In 5-Year Periods

96%
Value beat growth 98% of the time.

Small beat large 79% of the time.

Based on rolling annualized returns. Rolling multi-year periods overlap and are not independent. This statistical dependence must be considered when assessing the reliability of long-horizon return differences.
International Value vs. International Growth data: 157 overlapping 25-year periods. 217 overlapping 20-year periods. 277 overlapping 15-year periods. 337 overlapping 10-year periods. 397 overlapping 5-year periods.
International Small vs. International Large data: 217 overlapping 25-year periods. 277 overlapping 20-year periods. 337 overlapping 15-year periods. 397 overlapping 10-year periods. 457 overlapping 5-year periods.
International Value and Growth data provided by Fama/French from Bloomberg and MSCI securities data. International Small data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg, StyleResearch, London Business School, and
Nomura Securities data. International Large is MSCI World ex USA Index gross of foreign withholding taxes on dividends; copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved.
RR1272.6

Market Premium
Fama/French US Market Research Factor Returns
Monthly: January 1990–December 2012
Year

Annual
Return

1990
1991

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

-13.80%

-7.60%

0.90%

1.80%

-3.50%

8.20%

-1.10%

-1.60%

-9.90%

-6.00%

-1.90%

6.00%

2.40%

29.10%

4.40%

7.10%

2.50%

-0.20%

3.60%

-4.80%

4.20%

2.20%

-1.60%

1.40%

-4.10%

10.30%

1992

6.40%

-0.50%

1.10%

-2.70%

1.00%

0.40%

-2.30%

3.70%

-2.30%

1.00%

0.90%

3.80%

1.50%

1993

8.40%

1.00%

0.30%

2.30%

-2.80%

2.70%

0.30%

-0.30%

3.70%

-0.20%

1.60%

-2.00%

1.70%

1994

-4.10%

2.90%

-2.60%

-4.90%

0.70%

0.60%

-3.10%

2.80%

3.90%

-2.20%

1.10%

-4.10%

0.80%

1995

31.00%

1.60%

3.60%

2.20%

2.10%

2.90%

2.70%

3.60%

0.50%

3.20%

-1.60%

3.90%

1.00%

1996

16.20%

2.40%

1.20%

0.70%

2.10%

2.30%

-1.20%

-5.80%

2.80%

4.90%

0.90%

6.10%

-1.60%

1997

26.10%

4.90%

-0.50%

-4.90%

3.80%

6.70%

4.00%

7.20%

-4.00%

5.40%

-3.90%

2.70%

1.30%

1998

19.40%

0.00%

6.90%

4.70%

0.70%

-3.00%

2.80%

-2.70%

-16.20%

5.90%

7.10%

5.90%

5.90%

1999

20.20%

3.50%

-4.20%

3.40%

4.50%

-2.40%

4.70%

-3.40%

-1.40%

-2.70%

5.80%

3.30%

8.00%

2000

-16.70%

-4.40%

2.80%

4.90%

-6.40%

-4.40%

4.80%

-2.20%

7.10%

-5.60%

-3.00%

-10.80%

1.50%

2001

-14.80%

3.40%

-10.30%

-7.50%

8.00%

0.70%

-2.00%

-2.10%

-6.20%

-9.40%

2.60%

7.70%

1.60%

2002

-22.90%

-1.80%

-2.30%

4.30%

-5.10%

-1.20%

-7.20%

-8.30%

0.70%

-10.10%

7.40%

6.00%

-5.40%

2003

30.70%

-2.40%

-1.60%

0.90%

8.20%

6.30%

1.50%

2.20%

2.40%

-1.00%

6.00%

1.60%

4.50%

2004

10.70%

2.20%

1.50%

-1.20%

-2.50%

1.40%

2.10%

-3.90%

0.20%

2.00%

1.70%

4.70%

3.40%

2005

3.20%

-2.80%

2.10%

-1.90%

-2.70%

3.60%

0.90%

4.10%

-0.90%

0.80%

-2.40%

3.70%

0.00%

2006

10.60%

3.70%

-0.50%

1.50%

0.90%

-3.50%

-0.40%

-0.60%

2.10%

1.50%

3.30%

2.00%

0.70%

2007

0.80%

1.50%

-1.80%

0.90%

3.60%

3.50%

-1.90%

-3.60%

0.70%

3.80%

2.30%

-5.30%

-0.70%

2008

-38.40%

-6.40%

-2.30%

-1.20%

5.00%

2.20%

-8.00%

-1.50%

1.00%

-10.00%

-18.60%

-8.50%

2.10%

2009

29.10%

-7.70%

-10.10%

8.80%

11.10%

6.70%

-0.30%

8.20%

3.20%

4.50%

-2.80%

5.70%

2.90%

2010

18.00%

-3.70%

3.50%

6.40%

2.00%

-8.00%

-5.20%

7.20%

-4.40%

9.20%

3.90%

0.60%

6.80%

2011

-0.90%

0.50%

3.90%

0.30%

2.80%

-1.50%

-1.90%

-2.40%

-5.90%

-8.40%

11.50%

-0.60%

0.50%

2012

15.00%

5.10%

4.40%

3.10%

-0.80%

-6.20%

3.90%

0.80%

2.60%

2.70%

1.80%

0.80%

1.20%

Indicates a monthly return greater than 6.0% or less than -6.0%.
Monthly returns greater than 6%

25

Monthly returns less than 6%

21

Sources: Fama/French data provided by Fama/French.
Indices are not available for direct investment; their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

53
RR1272.6

Market Premium
Fama/French US Market Research Factor Returns
Monthly: January 1990–December 2012

20%

15%

Highest
Monthly
Return: 11.5%
(Oct 2011)

Monthly Return

10%

5%

Average
Monthly
Return: 0.53%

0%

-5%

Lowest
Monthly
Return: -18.6%
(Oct 2008)

-10%

-15%

-20%
1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Sources: Fama/French data provided by Fama/French.
Indices are not available for direct investment; their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

54
RR1272.6

S&P 500 Index Returns
Monthly: January 1990–December 2012

20%

15%

Highest
Monthly
Return: 11.4%
(Dec 1991)

Monthly Return

10%

5%

Average
Monthly
Return: 0.78%

0%

-5%

Lowest
Monthly
Return: -16.8%
(Oct 2008)

-10%

-15%

-20%
1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Sources: Dimensional; the S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group.
Indices are not available for direct investment; their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

55
RR1273.3

Market Risk Premium Is Countercyclical
Business Cycle

Peak

Trough

Risk Premium

The risk premium is the additional return an investor requires to compensate for the risk borne. Business cycle is a repetitive cycles of economic expansion and contractions. Peak is the high point at the end of an economic
expansion until the start of a contraction. Trough is the transition point between economic recession and recovery.

56
Risk and Return Are Related
Dimensions of Stock Returns around the World
Small

• Equity Market
(complete value-weighted universe of stocks)
Stocks tend to have higher expected returns
than fixed income over time.
• Company Size
(measured by market capitalization)
Small company stocks tend to have higher
expected returns than large company stocks
over time.
• Company Price
(measured by ratio of company book value to
market equity)
Lower-priced ―value‖ stocks tend to have
higher expected returns than higher-priced
―growth‖ stocks over time.

Increased Risk
Exposure and
Expected Return
Value

Growth
Decreased Risk
Exposure and
Expected Return

Total
Stock
Market

Large

Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, ―The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns,‖ Journal of Finance 47, no. 2 (June 1992): 427-65.
Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French are consultants for Dimensional Fund Advisors. This page contains the opinions of Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French but not necessarily of Dimensional Fund Advisors or DFA
Securities LLC, and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for educational
purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. Dimensional Fund Advisors (―Dimensional‖) is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
All materials presented are compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This article is distributed for educational purposes, and it is not to be construed as an
offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, products or services described. ©2012 by Dimensional Fund Advisors. All rights reserved.
LT1300.7

Long-Term Discipline

I.

The Importance of Long-Term Discipline

II.

The Stock Market’s Reaction

III.

Performance of the S&P 500 Index

IV.

Historical Performance vs. Large Stocks

V.

Bull and Bear Markets

VI.

The Market’s Response to Crisis

VII. Stocks vs. The Risk-Free Rate
VIII. Volatility and Market Downturns

IX.

Long-Term Market Stability

X.

Perils of Market Timing

XI.

Missing Opportunity

XII. Recessionary Periods

58
LT1310.7

The Importance of Long-Term Discipline

Annualized Compound Returns (%)
1926-2012

1965-1981

1982-2012

S&P 500 Index

9.84

6.33

11.14

One-Month US Treasury Bills

3.53

6.66

4.49

The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. One-Month US Treasury Bills data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G.
Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).
For illustrative purposes only. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of
future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money.

59
LT1320.2

The Stock Market’s Reaction
As Measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average
First Trading Session Response
Prior
Day
Close

Subsequent Market Behavior

Close

Change

Percent
Change

9,605.51

8,920.70

-684.81

-7.13%

-3.66%

11.12%

-8.71%

US launches bombing attack on Iraq

2,508.91

2,623.51

114.60

4.57%

16.97%

18.93%

29.52%

August 2, 1990

Iraq invades Kuwait

2,899.26

2,864.60

-34.66

-1.20%

-8.74%

-4.67%

4.95%

March 30, 1981

President Reagan shot by John Hinckley Jr.

994.78

992.16

-2.62

-0.26%

1.95% -14.33%

-16.90%

August 9, 1974

President Nixon resigns

784.89

777.30

-7.59

-0.97%

-14.71%

-8.87%

5.98%

November 22, 1963

President Kennedy assassinated in Dallas

732.64

711.48

-21.16

-2.89%

6.57%

15.37%

24.99%

October 22, 1962

Cuban missile crisis

568.60

558.06

-10.54

-1.85%

15.55%

27.41%

33.89%

September 24, 1955

President Eisenhower heart attack

487.44

455.55

-31.89

-6.54%

0.04%

12.48%

5.72%

June 25, 1950

North Korea invades South Korea

224.30

213.90

-10.40

-4.64%

-4.49%

7.34%

15.13%

December 7, 1941

Japan attacks Pearl Harbor, Hawaii

115.90

112.52

-3.38

-2.92%

-0.86%

-6.19%

2.88%

Date

Event

September 11, 2001

World Trade Center towers destroyed

January 16, 1991

Dow Jones data provided by Dow Jones Indexes.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.
There is always the risk that an investor may lose money.

One
Six
Month Months

One
Year

60
LT1330.9

Performance of the S&P 500 Index
Daily: January 1, 1970-December 31, 2012

$58,769

Growth of $1,000

$52,702

$38,212

$22,191
$13,999
$9,195

Total Period

Annualized
Compound Return

9.94%

Missed 1 Best
Day

9.66%

Missed 5 Best
Single Days

8.84%

Missed 15 Best
Single Days

7.47%

Missed 25 Best
Single Days

6.33%

One-Month
US T-Bills

5.30%

Performance data for January 1970-August 2008 provided by CRSP; performance data for September 2008-December 2012 provided by Bloomberg.
The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. US bonds and bills data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson
and Rex A. Sinquefield).
Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Dimensional Fund Advisors is an investment advisor registered with the
Securities and Exchange Commission. Information contained herein is compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy should be placed in the context of underlying assumptions. This publication is
distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Unauthorized copying, reproducing, duplicating, or
transmitting of this material is prohibited.
Date of first use: June 1, 2006.

61
LT1330.8

Performance of the S&P 500 Index
Daily: January 1, 1970-December 31, 2012

• The best single day was October
13, 2008.
Best/Worst Missed Period

• The best one-month return, October
1974, happened immediately after the
second-worst one-year period.

• 8 of the top 25 days occurred between
September 2008 and February
2009, during which time the S&P
dropped 41.8%
• 5 of the Top 10 days occurred
between October 2008 and November
2008, during which time, the S&P 500
dropped 22.8%.

14%

Annualized Compound Returns %

• The occurrence of strongly positive
returns has been especially
unpredictable. Investors attempting to
wait out an apparent downturn ran a
high risk of missing these best
periods.

Day

12%

3 Months
Ending

10/19/87

10/87

11/08

2/09

10.49%

Total Period

Month

6 Months
Ending

12 Months
Ending

10.56%

10.84%

11.33%

11.40%

9.66%

9.55%

9.05%

8.73%

10/13/08

10/74

2/09

Worst Periods
and the Return
If Missed

9.94%
10%
8%
6%

9.33%
10/82

6/75

6/83

Best Periods
and the Return
If Missed

4%
2%
0%

Time periods greater than one month are based on monthly rolling periods, and dates indicated are end of period.
The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group.
Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Dimensional Fund Advisors is an investment advisor registered with the
Securities and Exchange Commission. Information contained herein is compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy should be placed in the context of underlying assumptions. This publication is
distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Unauthorized copying, reproducing, duplicating, or
transmitting of this material is prohibited.
Date of first use: June 1, 2006.
LT1340.9

Value Stocks vs. Large Stocks
Monthly: July 1926-December 2012
Rolling Time Periods
Total Number of Periods
Number of Periods US Large Value Index
Outperformed S&P 500 Index

1 Year

3 Years

5 Years

10 Years

15 Years

20 Years

30 Years

40 Years

1027

1003

979

919

859

799

679

559

573

654

735

751

775

766

679

559

96%

100%

100%

90%
82%

75%
65%
56%

Percentage of All Rolling Periods Where US Large Value Index Outperformed S&P 500 Index

US Large Value Index is Fama/French US Large Value Index (ex utilities), provided by Fama/French. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Indexes are not available for direct investment.
Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Even a long-term investment approach
cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and issuer-specific events will cause the value of securities, and the portfolios that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of your investment in a portfolio will fluctuate, there is
a risk that you will lose money. Indexes are referred to for comparative purposes only and do not represent similar asset classes in terms of components or risk exposure; thus, their returns may vary significantly. The S&P 500
Index measures the performance of large cap US stocks. US Large Value Index measures the performance of US stocks with lower price-to-book ratios.
LT1340.9

Small Stocks vs. Large Stocks
Monthly: January 1926-December 2012
Rolling Time Periods
Total Number of Periods
Number of Periods US Small Cap Index
Outperformed S&P 500 Index

1 Year

3 Years

5 Years

10 Years

15 Years

20 Years

30 Years

40 Years

1033

1009

985

925

865

805

685

565

551

536

570

593

622

658

629

565
100%

92%
82%
72%
64%
58%
53%

53%

Percentage of All Rolling Periods Where US Small Cap Index Outperformed S&P 500 Index

The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their
performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Even a long-term investment approach
cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and issuer-specific events will cause the value of securities, and the portfolios that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of your investment in a portfolio will fluctuate, there is
a risk that you will lose money. Securities of small companies are often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Indexes are referred to for comparative
purposes only and do not represent similar asset classes in terms of components or risk exposure; thus, their returns may vary significantly. The S&P 500 Index measures the performance of large cap US stocks. The CRSP 610 Index measures the performance of US small cap stocks, those in the five smallest deciles of the US market.
LT1340.9

Large Stocks vs. Fixed Income
Monthly: January 1926-December 2012
Rolling Time Periods

Number of Periods S&P 500 Index
Outperformed One-Month T-Bills

3 Years

5 Years

10 Years

15 Years

20 Years

30 Years

40 Years

1033

1009

985

925

865

805

685

565

709

754

739

774

821

805

685

565

100%

Total Number of Periods

1 Year

100%

100%

95%
84%
75%

75%

69%

Percentage of All Rolling Periods Where S&P 500 Index Outperformed One-Month T-Bills

The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. One-Month Treasury Bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson
and Rex A. Sinquefield). Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future
results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Even a long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and
issuer-specific events will cause the value of securities, and the portfolios that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of your investment in a portfolio will fluctuate, there is a risk that you will lose money. Indexes are
referred to for comparative purposes only and do not represent similar asset classes in terms of components or risk exposure; thus, their returns may vary significantly. The S&P 500 Index measures the performance of large
cap US stocks. One-Month T-Bills measure the performance of US government-issued Treasury bills.
LT1370.15

Bull and Bear Markets
S&P 500 Index (USD)
Daily Returns: January 1, 1926–June 30, 2013
Average Duration
Bull Market
Bear Market

Average Return
Bull Market
Bear Market

413 Days
216 Days

58%
-21%

303%

220%

156%

121%

119%
100%

99%

87%

113%
96%

91%

83%

59%

53%
44%
40%
23%
26%
25% 22%

27%
20%

56%

44%
19%

26%
18%

26%

84%

78%

69%
50%
38%
22%

15%

73%

27% 48%
38% 26%
21%

6/30/2012
58%

37% 50%

16%

35%

23%
21%
13%

1%
-13%

-11%

-13%
-16%
-39%
-15%

-13% -33%
-14%
-53% -25%
-10%
-11%

-26%

-11% -13%
-16%

-11% -10%
-11% -13%
-21%
-27%
-11%
-27%

-11%
-10%
-13% -15%
-20%
-13%
-13%
-16%

-12%

-21%
-32%

-10%
-19%
-33%

-12% -12%
-11%
-19%

-45%

-14%

-47%

-16% -19%

-55%

-85%

1926

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

Indices are not available for direct investment; its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The S&P data are
provided by CRSP (January 1, 1926–August 31, 2008) and Bloomberg (September 1, 2008–present).
Returns include reinvested dividends. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative daily returns. A bear market (1) begins with a negative daily return, (2) must achieve a cumulative return less than or equal
to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points which are not considered part of a bear market are designated as a bull market. Performance data
represents past performance and does not predict future performance.

2011
LT1370.15

Bull and Bear Markets
S&P 500 Index (USD)
Monthly Returns: January 1926–June 30, 2013
116 mos.
491%

Average Duration
Bull Market
Bear Market

Average Return
Bull Market
Bear Market

30 Months
11 Months

Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market
% = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market

111%
-26%
92 mos.
355%

61 mos.
282%

44 mos.

193%

49 mos.
210%

2 mos.

92%
6 mos.

100%
3 mos. 23 mos.

26%

133%

4 mos.

9 mos.

12%

48 mos.
105%

61%

43 mos.
90%

5 mos.

22%

61 mos.
108%

9 mos. 33 mos.
30 mos. 55%
86%
26 mos. 76%
15 mos.
52%
35%

30 mos.
71%

24 mos.
63%

14 mos.
65%
10 mos.
34%
Jun 2013
48%

5 mos.
12%

6 mos.
4 mos.
-30% 13 mos. -16%
2 mos. -50%
31 mos.
34 mos. -19%
-30%
-83% 6 mos.
-21%
4 mos.
-10%

1925

1930

1935

1940

7 mos.
-10%
5 mos.
-15%

6 mos.
-22%

1945

1950

1955

3 mos.14 mos. 20 mos.
6 mos. 8 mos.
-11% -14% -17%
-16% 19 mos. 21 mos.
-22%
-29%
-43%

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

5 mos.
3 mos. -15%
-30%

1990

2 mos.
-15%

1995

25 mos.
-45%

2000

Indices are not available for direct investment; its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The S&P
data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A bear market (1) begins with a negative monthly return, (2) must
achieve a cumulative return less than or equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points which are not considered part of a bear
market are designated as a bull market.

5 mos.
-16%
2 mos.
16 mos. -13%
-51%

2005

2010
LT1370.15

Bull and Bear Markets
Russell 2000 Index (USD)
Monthly Returns: January 1979–June 2013
Average Duration
Bull Market
Bear Market

18 Months
8 Months

67 mos.

234%

Average Return
Bull Market
Bear Market

68%
-23%

Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market
% = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market
11 mos.

14 mos.

100%

22 mos.

82%

22 mos.

8 mos.

22 mos.

69%

3 mos.

21 mos.

65%

38%

14 mos.

85%

18 mos.

87%

74%
8 mos.

50%

11 mos.

26%

Jun 2013

25 mos.

57%

32%

56%

45%

2 mos.

12%

4 mos.

2 mos.

-11% 2 mos. 14 mos.
-20% -22%

13 mos.

-21%

2 mos.

3 mos.

4 mos.

-12%

-12%

-11%

-11%

3 mos.

-36%

13 mos.

4 mos.

-30%

-32%

4 mos.

-16%

31 mos.

-35%

5 mos.

-25%

21 mos.

-53%

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Indices are not available for direct investment; its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Russell data copyright © Russell Investment Group 1995–2013, all rights reserved. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A bear market (1) begins with a
negative, (2) must achieve a cumulative return less than or equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points which are
not considered part of a bear market are designated as a bull market.

2009

2011

2013
LT1370.15

Bull and Bear Markets
MSCI EAFE Index, Net Dividends (USD)
Monthly Returns: January 1970–June 30, 2013
Average Duration
Bull Market
Bear Market

37 mos.

323%

24 Months
11 Months

Average Return
Bull Market
Bear Market

87%
-23%

55 mos.

206%
Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market
% = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market

34 mos.

57mos.

39 mos.

103%

93%

67%

7 mos.

41%

93%

18 mos.

47%

36%

4 mos.

5 mos.

-15%

-13%
18 mos.

9 mos.

-13%

2 mos.

-11 % 17 mos.
-20%

53%
5 mos.

8 mos.

26%

19%

5 mos.

15 mos.

26 mos.

13 mos.

4 mos.

-15%

20 mos.

2 mos.

-17%

18%

9 mos.

-15%

4 mos. 2 mos.

-11% -15%

-31%

Jun 2013
39 mos.

-42%

Feb 2009
16 mos.

-48%

-57%

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

Indices are not available for direct investment; its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. MSCI
data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A bear market (1) begins with a negative monthly return, (2) must achieve a
cumulative return less than or equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points which are not considered part of a bear market
are designated as a bull market.

2010

-18%
LT1370.15

Bull and Bear Markets
MSCI Emerging Markets Index, Gross Dividends (USD)
Monthly Returns: January 1988–June 2013
Average Duration
Bull Market
Bear Market

Average Return
Bull Market
Bear Market

15 Months
6 Months

72%
-26%

Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market
% = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market
19 mos.

109%

17 mos.

101%

98%

21 mos.

114%

16 mos.

17 mos.

18 mos.

92%

16 mos.

89%

85%

4 mos.

31%
8 mos.

7 mos.

29 mos.

43%

42%

38%

5 mos.

21%

5 mos.

1 mo. 1 mo.

-12% -14%

4 mos.

3 mos.

4 mos.

2 mos.

-14%

-12% 5 mos.
-25%

-11%

-11%

-29%

5 mos.

Jun 2013

-24%

-18%

18 mos.

13 mos.

-48%

Feb 2009
16 mos.

-56%

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

-61%

Indices are not available for direct investment; its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A bear market (1) begins with a negative monthly return, (2) must
achieve a cumulative return less than or equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points which are not considered part
of a bear market are designated as a bull market.

2010

2012
LT1385.5

The Market’s Response to Crisis
Performance of a Normal Balanced Strategy: 60% Stocks, 40% Bonds
Cumulative Total Return
After 1 year

After 3 years

84%

After 5 years

59%
50%

50%

48%

42%
35%

21%

20%

21%

13%

12%
8%
1%

-2%

October 1987:
Stock Market Crash

August 1989:
US Savings and
Loan Crisis

-5%

September 1998:
Asian Contagion
Russian Crisis
Long-Term Capital
Management Collapse

March 2000:
Dot-Com Crash

-4%

September 2001:
Terrorist Attack

September 2008:
Bankruptcy of
Lehman Brothers

Balanced Strategy: 7.5% each S&P 500 Index, CRSP 6-10 Index, US Small Value Index, US Large Value Index; 15% each International Value Index, International Small Index; 40% BofA Merrill Lynch One-Year US Treasury
Note Index.
The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. The Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; copyright 2012 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. CRSP data
provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. US Small Value Index and US Large Value Index provided by Fama/French. International Value Index provided by Fama/French. International
Small Cap Index compiled by Dimensional from StyleResearch securities data; includes securities of MSCI EAFE countries in the bottom 10% of market capitalization, excluding the bottom 1%; market-cap weighted; each
country capped at 50%; rebalanced semiannually. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is
not a guarantee of future results. Not to be construed as investment advice. Returns of model portfolios are based on back-tested model allocation mixes designed with the benefit of hindsight and do not represent actual
investment performance.

71
LT1387.6

Stocks vs. the Risk-Free Rate
January 1926–December 2012
The S&P 500 has Beaten Treasury Bills in 83% of all Ten-Year Periods
Rolling 120-Month Annualized Returns (925 Total Periods)

January 1926–December 2012
Annualized Return
S&P 500 Index:
9.8%
One-Month Treasury Bills: 3.5%

22%
20%
18%
16%

Annualized Returns

14%
12%
10%

S&P 500 Index

8%
6%
4%
2%

One-Month Treasury Bills

0%
-2%
-4%

Rolling 120-Month Periods Beginning at Date Shown

-6%
1926

1938

1950

1962

1974

1986

1998

The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. US long-term bonds, bills, inflation, and fixed income factor data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago
(annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).
Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not to be construed as investment advice.
LT1388.6

Long-Term Returns vs. Short-Term Volatility
1999 S&P 500 Illustration
April 1999 Daily Returns
Total Month of April Return: 3.9%

S&P 500
$2,980
Dec 2010

-2.24%
1

15

30

During this month, the S&P 500
had 10 days of negative returns
out of 21 trading days.

1999 Monthly Returns
Total Annual Return: 21%
21.04%

-0.49%

J

• Even during periods of positive stock returns,
investors may experience substantial volatility.

-3.11%
F M

A

-2.36% -3.12% -2.74%
M J J A S O

N

D

During this year, the S&P 500
had 5 out of 12 months with
negative returns.

• Short-term volatility is a typical characteristic of stock market investing.
• Long-term returns are the sum of short-term volatility.

The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not to be construed as investment advice.
LT1388.7

Market Downturns—A Historical Perspective
Individual Index Monthly Downturns
As of December 31, 2012

Domestic
Large Cap
Fund Equivalent Index
Start Date
End Date
Threshold
Months at or below Threshold
Months in Sample
Percentage of Months below Threshold

Domestic
Small Cap

International

Emerging

S&P 500
Index
January 1926
December 2012
-7%
63
1,044
6.0%

CRSP 6-10
Index
January 1926
December 2012
-7%
111
1,044
10.6%

MSCI EAFE
Index
January 1970
December 2012
-7%
33
516
6.4%

MSCI Emerging
Markets Index
January 1988
December 2012
-7%
37
300
12.3%

21.1%
16.4%
16.1%
13.9%

10.4%
11.1%
12.8%
11.2%

8.0%
11.8%
13.1%
12.3%

Annualized Average Compound Return over
Subsequent Periods (starting the next month)
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years

9.1%
9.5%
9.9%
8.4%

• Individual asset class
volatility and negative
returns have occurred
in the past.
• Despite these
downturns, investors
who remained
disciplined were
rewarded in the long
run.
• Use balanced
diversified portfolios
and focus on longterm results.

Sources: The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group; CRSP Index returns from the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago; MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved.
MSCI EAFE Index is net of foreign withholding taxes on dividends. MSCI Emerging Markets Index is gross of foreign withholding taxes on dividends. Annualized average compound return over subsequent periods is calculated
as the compound growth rate required to produce the average total return over the same time period. Performance for periods greater than one year are annualized. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their
performance does not reflect expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results and there is always the risk that an investor may lose money.

74
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Dfa all slides 2013

  • 1. DV1000.2 Diversification I. The Impact of Volatility II. The Randomness of Returns III. The Randomness of Returns: Bonds IV. The Randomness of Returns: Sectors V. Model Portfolio: Allocations VI. Model Portfolio: Historical Returns VII. Equity Returns of Emerging Markets VIII. Equity Returns of Developed Markets IX. World Market Capitalization
  • 2. DV1010.2 The Impact of Volatility Impact on a Hypothetical $100,000 Portfolio Year 1 Return Year 2 Return Average Return Compound Return Value at End of Year 2 Portfolio #1 50% -50% 0% -13.4% $75,000 Portfolio #2 10% -10% 0% -0.5% $99,000 For illustrative purposes only. 2
  • 3. DV1030.10 The Randomness of Returns Annual Return (%) 1998 Lowest Return US Large Cap US Large Cap Value US Small Cap US Small Cap Value US Real Estate Intl Large Cap Value Intl Small Cap Intl Small Cap Value Emerging Markets One-Year US Fixed Five-Year US Government Fixed Five-Year Global Fixed 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 28.6 23.1 15.6 10.2 9.7 8.4 7.8 5.9 -2.6 -6.4 -17.0 -25.3 66.4 33.0 30.2 21.5 21.3 21.0 7.4 4.0 3.6 1.9 -1.5 -2.6 31.0 22.8 9.0 8.3 7.3 7.0 4.0 -2.0 -3.0 -9.1 -12.3 -30.6 14.0 12.3 8.4 7.3 6.4 2.5 -2.4 -5.6 -6.5 -11.9 -15.4 -16.7 7.6 5.1 3.8 3.6 3.4 -2.9 -6.0 -11.4 -13.8 -15.5 -20.5 -22.1 69.2 66.8 60.2 56.3 47.3 46.0 36.2 30.0 28.7 2.0 1.9 1.5 35.1 33.2 32.1 30.6 26.0 22.3 18.3 16.5 10.9 2.7 1.3 0.8 34.5 24.1 22.6 15.1 13.8 7.0 4.9 4.7 4.6 3.1 2.4 1.3 36.0 33.0 32.6 27.5 26.3 23.5 22.2 18.4 15.8 4.3 4.1 3.8 39.8 8.2 8.0 6.3 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.5 -0.2 -1.6 -9.8 -17.6 8.8 6.6 4.7 -28.9 -33.8 -36.8 -37.0 -39.2 -42.5 -45.1 -47.1 -53.2 79.0 48.6 47.8 44.8 28.5 27.2 26.5 20.6 19.7 2.3 0.8 0.2 28.1 26.9 24.5 20.7 19.2 19.2 15.5 15.1 13.3 3.7 2.0 0.8 9.4 3.4 2.3 2.1 0.6 0.4 -4.2 -5.5 -15.1 -15.6 -17.1 -18.2 21.2 18.6 18.2 18.1 17.5 17.1 16.8 16.4 16.0 2.1 0.9 0.2 1998 Highest Return 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 28.6 15.6 -2.6 -6.4 -17.0 23.1 10.2 9.7 -25.3 5.9 7.8 8.4 21.0 7.4 21.3 -1.5 -2.6 33.0 30.2 21.5 66.4 4.0 1.9 3.6 -9.1 7.0 -3.0 22.8 31.0 4.0 -12.3 -2.0 -30.6 7.3 9.0 8.3 -11.9 -5.6 2.5 14.0 12.3 -15.4 -16.7 -6.5 -2.4 7.3 8.4 6.4 -22.1 -15.5 -20.5 -11.4 3.6 -13.8 -2.9 3.8 -6.0 3.4 7.6 5.1 28.7 30.0 47.3 46.0 36.2 69.2 60.2 66.8 56.3 1.5 2.0 1.9 10.9 16.5 18.3 22.3 33.2 30.6 32.1 35.1 26.0 0.8 1.3 2.7 4.9 7.0 4.6 4.7 13.8 15.1 22.6 24.1 34.5 2.4 1.3 3.1 15.8 22.2 18.4 23.5 36.0 33.0 26.3 27.5 32.6 4.3 3.8 4.1 5.5 -0.2 -1.6 -9.8 -17.6 6.3 8.0 6.2 39.8 5.9 8.2 6.3 -37.0 -36.8 -33.8 -28.9 -39.2 -45.1 -47.1 -42.5 -53.2 4.7 8.8 6.6 26.5 19.7 27.2 20.6 28.5 48.6 44.8 47.8 79.0 0.8 0.2 2.3 15.1 15.5 26.9 24.5 28.1 13.3 20.7 19.2 19.2 0.8 3.7 2.0 2.1 0.4 -4.2 -5.5 9.4 -17.1 -15.6 -15.1 -18.2 0.6 3.4 2.3 16.0 17.5 16.4 18.1 17.1 21.2 16.8 18.2 18.6 0.2 0.9 2.1 In US dollars. US Large Cap is the S&P 500 Index, provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. US Large Cap Value is the Russell 1000 Value Index. US Small Cap is the Russell 2000 Index. US Small Cap Value is the Russell 2000 Value Index. Russell data copyright © Russell Investment Group 1997-2013, all rights reserved. US Real Estate is the Dow Jones US Select REIT Index, provided by Dow Jones Indexes. International Value data provided by Fama/French from Bloomberg and MSCI securities data. International Small Cap data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg, StyleResearch, London Business School, and Nomura Securities data. International Small Cap Value data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg and StyleResearch securities data. Emerging Markets is the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross dividends), copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved; see MSCI disclosure page for additional information. One-Year US Fixed is the BofA Merrill Lynch One-Year US Treasury Note Index, used with permission; copyright 2013 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Five-Year US Government Fixed is the Barclays Capital Treasury Bond Index 1-5 Years, formerly Lehman Brothers, provided by Barclays Bank PLC. Five-Year Global Fixed is the Citigroup World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years (hedged), copyright 2013 by Citigroup. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 3
  • 4. DV1030.9 Model Portfolio: Allocations Model Portfolio 1 Model Portfolio 4 Model Portfolio 5 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% US STOCKS Model Portfolio 3 60% EQUITY Model Portfolio 2 60% 60% 60% 30% 60.0% 60.0% 30.0% 15.0% 7.5% US Large Cap S&P 500 Index US Large Cap Value Fama/French US Large Cap Value Research Index — — — 15.0% 7.5% US Small Cap Fama/French US Small Cap Index — — 30.0% 15.0% 7.5% US Small Cap Value Fama/French US Small Cap Value Research Index — — — 15.0% 7.5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% NON-US STOCKS International Large Cap Value Fama/French International Value Index — — — — 15.0% International Small Cap International Small Cap Index — — — — 15.0% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% — 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% — — — — FIXED INCOME One-Year US Fixed BofA Merrill Lynch One-Year US Treasury Note Index US Fixed (all maturities) Barclays Capital US Government/Credit Bond Index International Small Cap Index data compiled by Dimensional. The returns and other characteristics of the allocation mixes contained in this presentation are based on model/back-tested simulations to demonstrate broad economic principles. They were achieved with the benefit of hindsight and do not represent actual investment performance. There are limitations inherent in model performance; it does not reflect trading in actual accounts and may not reflect the impact that economic and market factors may have had on an advisor’s decision making if the advisor were managing actual client money. Model performance is hypothetical and is for illustrative purposes only. Model performance shown includes reinvestment of dividends and other earnings but does not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees or other expenses. Clients’ investment returns would be reduced by the advisory fees and other expenses they would incur in the management of their accounts. For illustrative purposes only. The balanced strategies are not recommendations for an actual allocation. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not to be construed as investment advice. 4
  • 5. DV1030.9 Model Portfolio: Historical Returns Annual Return (%) 1998 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 21.63 16.76 5.82 8.12 -6.61 31.75 14.80 8.93 15.27 3.19 5.81 -9.18 26.31 11.04 11.69 14.32 -1.02 0.48 -9.87 25.46 10.82 Lowest Return 2000 19.89 Highest Return 1999 11.64 -2.70 -3.30 -11.19 9.92 10.35 -3.50 -3.91 -12.01 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 16.42 6.29 -21.22 24.75 13.75 5.37 11.96 5.74 13.70 5.74 -21.40 22.27 12.94 1.96 11.83 9.31 4.15 11.69 4.18 -21.90 20.75 12.24 0.00 11.64 18.89 8.31 3.92 11.14 3.29 -22.27 17.77 11.96 -1.58 10.09 17.49 6.85 3.90 10.91 1.60 -24.72 16.29 9.66 -5.48 9.66 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Model Portfolio 1 21.63 11.64 -1.02 -3.30 -9.18 18.89 8.31 3.92 Model Portfolio 2 19.89 14.32 -2.70 -3.91 -12.01 17.49 6.85 Model Portfolio 3 10.82 16.76 -3.50 5.81 -11.19 25.46 Model Portfolio 4 9.92 10.35 5.82 8.12 -9.87 Model Portfolio 5 11.69 15.27 3.19 0.48 -6.61 2007 2007 Annual Annualized Standard 2012 Return Deviation 2008 2009 2010 2011 10.91 6.29 -21.40 17.77 12.24 5.37 11.64 5.64 11.34 3.90 11.14 5.74 -21.90 16.29 9.66 1.96 9.66 4.46 11.46 9.31 4.15 11.69 3.29 -22.27 22.27 13.75 0.00 10.09 5.71 12.34 26.31 11.04 5.74 13.70 1.60 -21.22 20.75 12.94 -1.58 11.96 6.40 11.62 31.75 14.80 8.93 16.42 4.18 -24.72 24.75 11.96 -5.48 11.83 7.02 13.68 Assumes all strategies have been rebalanced quarterly. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Fama/French data provided by Fama/French. International Small Cap data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg, StyleResearch, London Business School, and Nomura Securities data. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved; see MSCI disclosure page for additional information. The Merrill Lynch indices are used with permission; copyright 2013 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Barclays Capital data, formerly Lehman Brothers, provided by Barclays Bank PLC. The returns and other characteristics of the allocation mixes contained in this presentation are based on model/back-tested simulations to demonstrate broad economic principles. They were achieved with the benefit of hindsight and do not represent actual investment performance. There are limitations inherent in model performance; it does not reflect trading in actual accounts and may not reflect the impact that economic and market factors may have had on an advisor’s decision making if the advisor were managing actual client money. Model performance is hypothetical and is for illustrative purposes only. Model performance shown includes reinvestment of dividends and other earnings but does not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees or other expenses. Clients’ investment returns would be reduced by the advisory fees and other expenses they would incur in the management of their accounts. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not to be construed as investment advice. 5
  • 6. DV1032.1 The Randomness of Returns: Sectors Annual Return (%) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 61.93 82.58 54.05 3.63 -6.31 50.32 38.05 40.83 39.41 32.88 -16.09 61.85 30.53 18.46 32.39 49.92 25.07 45.67 1.41 -6.63 41.04 23.25 14.75 21.76 27.51 -23.35 53.60 24.87 13.39 29.05 38.70 23.95 38.42 1.31 -9.09 37.62 19.24 8.11 19.74 17.18 -28.11 50.17 24.16 11.90 24.56 31.22 23.46 26.76 0.86 -13.09 34.83 17.94 6.03 17.57 16.56 -38.17 35.63 23.38 5.05 19.32 17.79 17.65 7.24 -7.11 -21.08 32.09 15.39 5.96 15.44 12.58 -38.39 33.97 23.16 4.06 16.46 13.86 12.79 0.29 -12.77 -23.84 26.07 14.39 5.17 15.12 11.95 -39.41 24.05 14.46 0.64 15.28 10.28 1.81 -14.16 -14.86 -23.78 24.71 12.53 3.69 14.98 8.05 -41.22 20.97 13.39 -0.38 13.30 8.54 Highest Return -2.89 -25.78 -16.67 -23.58 19.84 10.10 3.01 11.90 0.20 -41.99 15.62 11.81 -0.71 10.08 -7.05 -6.66 -35.38 -17.44 -37.31 18.87 3.51 -1.40 10.87 -8.69 -48.14 14.55 7.31 -14.12 4.32 -15.90 -14.64 -40.14 -28.40 -38.33 17.43 0.79 -6.04 6.65 -17.88 -51.35 11.76 5.11 -16.51 2.19 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Morningstar SEC/Basic Materials -7.05 23.95 -14.16 0.86 -9.09 37.62 17.94 5.96 14.98 27.51 -48.14 53.60 24.87 -14.12 16.46 Morningstar SEC/Consumer Cyclical 49.92 23.46 -40.14 -17.44 -37.31 19.84 14.39 -6.04 39.41 0.20 -38.17 35.63 23.16 0.64 32.39 Morningstar SEC/Consumer Dfnsve 31.22 17.65 -25.78 3.63 -23.78 41.04 15.39 -1.40 11.90 -8.69 -41.22 50.17 30.53 4.06 24.56 Morningstar SEC/Energy 17.79 -2.89 7.24 1.41 -6.31 17.43 10.10 3.01 15.12 12.58 -16.09 15.62 14.46 13.39 10.08 -15.90 25.07 45.67 -14.86 -6.63 26.07 38.05 40.83 19.74 32.88 -38.39 33.97 23.38 5.05 4.32 Morningstar SEC/Healthcare 10.28 1.81 26.76 -7.11 -13.09 32.09 12.53 6.03 17.57 -17.88 -51.35 14.55 11.81 -16.51 29.05 Morningstar SEC/Industrials 38.70 -6.66 38.42 -12.77 -21.08 18.87 3.51 8.11 6.65 8.05 -23.35 20.97 5.11 11.90 19.32 Morningstar SEC/Technology 8.54 12.79 0.29 1.31 -23.58 34.83 19.24 5.17 15.44 11.95 -39.41 24.05 24.16 -0.71 15.28 61.93 82.58 -35.38 -28.40 -38.33 50.32 0.79 3.69 10.87 16.56 -41.99 61.85 13.39 -0.38 13.30 13.86 -14.64 54.05 -16.67 -23.84 24.71 23.25 14.75 21.76 17.18 -28.11 11.76 7.31 18.46 2.19 Lowest Return Morningstar SEC/Financial Svc Morningstar SEC/Communication Svc Morningstar SEC/Utilities Mutual fund universe statistical data and non-Dimensional money managers' fund data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar’s Sector Index family consists of 11 sector indices that track the US equity market using a consumption-based analysis of economic sectors in a comprehensive, non-overlapping structure. Index constituents are drawn from the available pool of US-domiciled stocks that trade on one of the three major US exchanges. Real Estate Sector Index is not included in the above illustration. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
  • 7. DV1037.3 Equity Returns of Emerging Markets Annual Return (%) 1998 Highest Return Lowest Return 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Korea Turkey Czech Rep. Russia Czech Rep. Thailand Colombia Egypt China Peru Morocco Brazil Thailand Indonesia Turkey 141.15 252.41 1.62 55.85 44.16 144.56 132.95 161.59 82.87 94.74 -10.87 128.62 56.27 6.50 64.87 Morocco Russia Poland Korea Indonesia Turkey Egypt Colombia Indonesia Brazil Colombia Indonesia Peru Malaysia Philippines 24.57 247.06 -4.04 48.71 42.83 125.88 126.23 107.52 74.83 79.99 -25.10 127.63 53.35 0.12 47.56 Philippines Malaysia Brazil Colombia Hungary Brazil Hungary Russia Morocco Turkey Chile Russia Chile Philippines Egypt 13.45 114.33 -11.37 45.77 30.69 115.01 92.49 73.77 68.58 74.81 -35.37 104.91 44.81 0.10 47.10 Thailand Indonesia Chile Peru Peru Peru Czech Rep. Korea Peru India South Africa India Colombia Thailand Poland 11.56 93.46 -15.14 19.92 30.50 94.32 87.25 58.00 62.55 73.11 -37.89 102.81 43.41 -2.40 40.97 Czech Rep. Korea Malaysia Mexico South Africa Egypt Poland Brazil Philippines China Peru Turkey Malaysia Czech Rep. Colombia 0.54 92.42 -15.95 18.55 27.99 91.84 61.52 57.05 59.65 66.24 -40.11 98.49 37.01 -5.02 35.89 Poland Egypt South Africa Taiwan Thailand China Indonesia Turkey Russia Egypt Malaysia Chile Philippines Colombia Thailand -6.69 88.40 -17.19 10.47 27.59 87.57 52.21 56.94 55.93 58.43 -41.21 86.73 35.49 -5.02 34.94 Hungary India Mexico Thailand Colombia Chile Mexico Mexico India Czech Rep. Czech Rep. Colombia Indonesia Korea Mexico -8.16 87.35 -20.49 5.25 25.36 84.41 48.32 49.11 51.00 55.93 -42.75 84.35 34.62 -11.76 29.06 Taiwan Mexico Morocco Malaysia Russia India South Africa Czech Rep. Brazil Indonesia Mexico Taiwan South Africa Mexico India -20.64 80.07 -21.55 4.56 15.71 78.36 44.91 46.20 45.80 55.03 -42.94 80.25 34.21 -12.11 25.97 India Brazil India Czech Rep. Korea Indonesia Turkey India Poland Morocco Taiwan Hungary Mexico South Africa China -21.24 67.23 -21.74 -2.01 8.62 78.20 42.03 37.57 41.93 48.15 -45.88 77.61 27.61 -14.36 23.10 Egypt South Africa Peru Chile India Russia Brazil Peru Mexico Thailand Thailand Thailand Korea Morocco Hungary -27.00 57.20 -23.82 -2.83 8.38 75.94 36.47 35.00 41.44 46.63 -48.27 77.31 27.15 -14.76 22.79 South Africa Taiwan Hungary Indonesia Egypt Colombia Chile South Africa Malaysia Malaysia China Korea Taiwan China Korea -27.56 52.71 -26.80 -8.49 1.59 66.93 29.01 28.34 37.14 46.07 -50.83 72.06 22.73 -18.24 21.48 Chile Thailand Russia Hungary Poland Czech Rep. Philippines Poland Czech Rep. Philippines Philippines Peru Turkey Russia Peru -28.50 47.16 -30.03 -9.16 1.26 66.20 26.58 24.96 34.69 41.68 -51.87 72.06 21.24 -19.30 20.24 Malaysia Chile China Morocco Malaysia Morocco Korea Philippines Hungary Korea Egypt Philippines India Chile South Africa -30.81 39.01 -30.54 -13.70 -0.66 49.03 22.86 23.92 33.70 32.58 -52.35 67.98 20.95 -20.00 19.01 Indonesia Poland Colombia Brazil Morocco South Africa Morocco Chile Chile Poland Poland China Russia Taiwan Taiwan -31.53 31.50 -38.85 -16.99 -8.42 45.86 22.56 21.62 29.33 25.79 -54.49 62.63 19.40 -20.15 17.66 Mexico Peru Egypt South Africa Mexico Philippines India China Taiwan Russia Korea South Africa Poland Peru Russia -33.53 18.86 -43.71 -17.21 -13.31 42.76 19.11 19.77 20.90 24.79 -55.07 57.82 15.86 -21.37 14.39 Brazil China Taiwan Philippines China Taiwan Malaysia Hungary South Africa Chile Brazil Mexico Morocco Brazil Malaysia -39.62 13.33 -44.90 -19.29 -14.05 42.55 15.17 18.50 20.53 23.68 -56.06 56.63 15.33 -21.59 14.27 Peru Hungary Philippines India Chile Korea Taiwan Indonesia Egypt South Africa Indonesia Malaysia Egypt Poland Chile -40.22 11.66 -45.01 -19.45 -19.81 35.94 9.83 15.76 17.08 18.14 -56.20 52.06 12.42 -29.52 8.34 Colombia Czech Rep. Turkey China Taiwan Poland Russia Morocco Colombia Hungary Hungary Poland Brazil Hungary Indonesia -41.71 5.35 -45.65 -24.70 -24.45 35.48 5.69 13.97 13.76 16.80 -61.53 42.51 6.81 -33.65 5.22 China Philippines Korea Poland Philippines Mexico Peru Thailand Korea Colombia Turkey Egypt China Turkey Czech Rep. -42.37 3.32 -49.62 -27.44 -28.98 32.81 3.16 9.16 13.19 15.00 -62.10 39.74 4.83 -35.16 3.48 Turkey Morocco Thailand Turkey Brazil Hungary China Taiwan Thailand Mexico India Czech Rep. Czech Rep. India Brazil -52.51 -11.92 -56.27 -32.66 -30.65 32.31 1.89 7.25 11.61 12.15 -64.63 27.77 -1.66 -37.17 0.34 Russia Colombia Indonesia Egypt Turkey Malaysia Thailand Malaysia Turkey Taiwan Russia Morocco Hungary Egypt Morocco -82.99 -14.38 -61.90 -41.30 -35.70 26.61 -0.92 2.29 -6.97 9.13 -73.83 -4.98 -9.58 -46.86 -11.48 Source: MSCI emerging markets country indices (gross dividends) with at least fifteen years of data. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 7
  • 8. DV1037.3 Equity Returns of Emerging Markets Annual Return (%) Boxed Return is highest return for the year. 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Brazil -39.62 67.23 -11.37 -16.99 -30.65 115.01 36.47 57.05 45.80 79.99 -56.06 128.62 6.81 -21.59 0.34 Chile -28.50 39.01 -15.14 -2.83 -19.81 84.41 29.01 21.62 29.33 23.68 -35.37 86.73 44.81 -20.00 8.34 China -42.37 13.33 -30.54 -24.70 -14.05 87.57 1.89 19.77 82.87 66.24 -50.83 62.63 4.83 -18.24 23.10 Colombia -41.71 -14.38 -38.85 45.77 25.36 66.93 132.95 107.52 13.76 15.00 -25.10 84.35 43.41 -5.02 35.89 0.54 5.35 1.62 -2.01 44.16 66.20 87.25 46.20 34.68 55.93 -42.75 27.77 -1.66 -5.02 3.48 -27.00 88.40 -43.71 -41.30 1.59 91.84 126.23 161.59 17.08 58.43 -52.35 39.74 12.42 -46.86 47.10 -8.16 11.66 -26.80 -9.16 30.69 32.31 92.49 18.50 33.70 16.80 -61.53 77.61 -9.58 -33.65 22.79 India -21.24 87.35 -21.74 -19.45 8.37 78.36 19.11 37.57 51.00 73.11 -64.63 102.81 20.95 -37.17 25.97 Indonesia -31.53 93.46 -61.90 -8.49 42.83 78.20 52.21 15.76 74.83 55.03 -56.20 127.63 34.62 6.50 5.22 Korea 141.15 92.42 -49.62 48.71 8.62 35.94 22.86 58.00 13.19 32.58 -55.07 72.06 27.15 -11.76 21.48 Malaysia -30.81 114.33 -15.95 4.56 -0.66 26.61 15.17 2.29 37.14 46.07 -41.21 52.06 37.01 0.12 14.27 Mexico -33.53 80.07 -20.49 18.55 -13.31 32.81 48.32 49.11 41.44 12.15 -42.94 56.63 27.61 -12.11 29.06 24.57 -11.92 -21.55 -13.70 -8.42 49.03 22.56 13.97 68.58 48.15 -10.87 -4.98 15.33 -14.76 -11.48 -40.22 18.86 -23.82 19.92 30.50 94.32 3.16 35.00 62.55 94.74 -40.11 72.06 53.35 -21.37 20.24 Philippines 13.45 3.32 -45.01 -19.29 -28.98 42.76 26.58 23.92 59.65 41.68 -51.87 67.98 35.49 0.10 47.56 Poland -6.69 31.50 -4.04 -27.44 1.26 35.48 61.52 24.96 41.93 25.79 -54.49 42.51 15.86 -29.52 40.97 Russia -82.99 247.06 -30.03 55.85 15.71 75.94 5.69 73.77 55.93 24.79 -73.83 104.91 19.40 -19.30 14.39 South Africa -27.56 57.20 -17.19 -17.21 27.99 45.86 44.91 28.34 20.53 18.14 -37.89 57.82 34.21 -14.36 19.01 Taiwan -20.64 52.71 -44.90 10.47 -24.45 42.55 9.83 7.25 20.90 9.13 -45.88 80.25 22.73 -20.15 17.66 11.56 47.16 -56.27 5.25 27.59 144.56 -0.92 9.16 11.61 46.63 -48.27 77.31 56.27 -2.40 34.94 -52.51 252.41 -45.65 -32.66 -35.70 125.88 42.03 56.94 -6.97 74.81 -62.10 98.49 21.24 -35.16 64.87 Czech Republic Egypt Hungary Morocco Peru Thailand Turkey Source: MSCI emerging markets country indices (gross dividends) with at least fifteen years of data. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 8
  • 9. DV1040.9 Equity Returns of Developed Markets Annual Return (%) 19 8 8 19 8 9 19 9 0 19 9 1 19 9 2 19 9 3 B elg. A ustria UK H.K. H.K. H.K. 53.63 1 03.91 1 0.29 49.52 32.29 1 6.70 1 23.57 44.1 2 40.05 Den. Ger. H.K. Sing. Japan US 46.26 9.1 8 A ustral . 33.64 Switz. 52.67 Highest Return 1 7.23 67.97 21 .44 37.1 4 Swede n 37.21 US US Switz. 30.07 6.39 45.79 Swede 1n 8.34 Swede n 33.36 Swede No rway A ustria n 48.33 45.53 6.33 No rway Den. No rway Sing. Sing. 42.40 43.94 0.65 24.96 6.28 France Sing. Den. 37.87 42.26 -0.91 A ustral France . 36.40 36.1 5 Japan Neth. 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 2000 No rway Switz. 19 9 4 Spain Switz. 44.25 44.25 B elg. 67.76 67.75 Sing. Switz. A ustral A ustria Swede A ustria n 5.85 1. .68 1 6.55 64.53 71 .52 Italy Italy Can. 35.48 52.52 Swede n 79.74 H.K. Den. Spain Japan Den. B elg. 33.08 34.52 49.90 61 .53 3.44 -1 0.89 No rway Neth. 42.04 France France Swede n 1 7.83 2.81 36.99 Spain No rway US France H.K. 33.38 41 .54 59.52 Neth. Can. Spain US Can. Italy 27.71 28.54 25.41 30.1 4 53.74 -1 .33 29.83 Italy 1 .56 1 US Neth. Neth. Ger. B elg. B elg. Neth. Ger. Ger. 1 7.80 2.30 35.64 8.24 25.88 27.51 24.57 29.43 Neth. Den. B elg. Neth. Sing. H.K. UK Neth. Switz. 35.28 6.68 22.57 27.42 23.77 23.53 29.27 UK US UK Neth. US 35.79 -3.1 9 1 6.56 -1 .47 Sing. Switz. UK UK 33.32 Swede n 31 .79 -6.23 1 6.02 -3.65 H.K. US Ger. Switz. Ger. 28.1 2 30.01 -9.36 1 5.77 -1 0.27 Ger. Switz. B elg. Spain A ustria 20.60 Can. 26.21 Can. -1 0.98 Sing. 1 7.07 24.30 -1 .66 1 1 5.63 -1 0.65 Swede A ustral 1n 4.42 -1 . 0.82 US UK Can. B elg. -30.49 76.43 30.73 -2.56 31 .27 US Sing. H.K. Switz. Sing. -37.57 73.96 23.23 -6.77 30.96 58.46 -4.31 -1 4.05 -1 .05 1 Den. Can. 38.39 A ustria Swede n 56.96 36.28 24.64 45.1 2 31 .43 Den. Swede n 43.39 Can. Spain Sweden Sing. No rway Ger. 29.57 -40.60 22.1 4 -1 0.01 30.90 Den. 38.77 38.77 Sing. France H.K. Can. B elg. H.K. 28.35 -43.27 60.1 5 20.45 -1 0.62 28.27 A ustral . 28.34 Can. B elg. Japan A ustral. A ustria -45.51 57.49 1 5.44 Den. Ger. Can. US 1 4.77 24.50 Can. Italy No rway 54.60 32.49 24.26 Den. Switz. B elg. 30.82 1 6.33 36.66 Den. 49.25 A ustral A ustral A ustria . 36.54 30.34 1 . 6.02 36.54 25.90 Neth. A ustral. 25.59 -45.87 56.1 8 Ger. Spain Sing. Spain A ustral. Spain Sweden -1 2 2.1 22.07 1 4.37 35.99 23.95 -47.35 43.48 1 4.52 -1 2.28 21 .97 H.K. Neth. Neth. Den. UK Switz. Can. France 32.81 4.66 1 8.78 21 .79 1 3.55 1 7.80 20.04 -1 .53 1 -1 8.61 -1 4.97 40.22 24.98 1 3.85 France 34.48 20.59 -47.56 43.30 1 .79 1 -1 2.71 Spain Den. Can. UK H.K. Sing. Neth. 3.77 Switz. 1 8.31 Ger. -1 5.23 Spain 38.1 0 Italy 22.27 Can. Italy 32.49 France 29.78 Italy Swede 1n 0.31 Ger. 28.53 3.54 1 6.41 -1 5.29 37.83 22.20 Neth. 31 .38 31 .38 A ustria US France Ger. Neth. Den. Sing. UK 37.60 1 9.57 Italy No rway Japan 1 9.42 -1 3.83 1 .08 1 25.48 -1 .63 1 2.59 Spain B elg. Spain Japan Japan UK Can. Sing. B elg. 1 3.53 1 7.29 -1 3.85 8.92 -21 .45 24.44 -3.04 6.45 1 2.03 Italy Spain Spain B elg. Spain 9.76 A ustral -1 . 7.54 Ger. 1 .46 1 8.1 6 -21 .87 23.51 -4.80 France France 6.24 5.05 A ustria A ustria 1 .57 No rway A ustria A ustral 6.02 4.51 -1 . 0.44 0.35 Den. H.K. 1 2.06 -1 4.74 -22.1 0 -1 6.03 Neth. Ger. France H.K. 6.88 -1 5.59 -22.36 -1 7.79 Spain Spain Ger. Neth. 4.83 -1 5.86 -22.39 -20.83 8.40 Switz. Japan UK 34.08 1 5.86 7.35 Italy US UK Switz. US -26.59 -23.09 32.06 1 4.96 5.1 4 Spain Switz. -7.02 Swede n -21 .29 Can. A ustria Japan Sing. Japan Sing. A ustria Sing. 0.69 -6.86 -23.67 -1 2.88 -9.1 1 Sing. No rway B elg. -30.05 -30.06 -1 4.26 -1 5.50 H.K. -21 8 .1 -6.1 4 -4.72 Ger. 1 7 6.1 France Can. -28.90 B elg. 35.33 Sing. H.K. 9.1 5 9.05 -23.42 -23.29 -28.25 1 8.48 B elg. 2.28 A ustria Japan 35.91 -1 6.85 Switz. H.K. B elg. Italy 1 .05 -6.28 Japan France -0.26 Italy US France A ustral .30.86 30.86 9.88 H.K. -5.1 8 1 7.58 9.92 -2.90 20.90 Den. Sing. -1 0.95 28.93 France Swede Swede A ustral A ustria Can. 21 .20 1n 2.92 1n 3.96 1 . 7.62 -1 .96 -20.44 1 A ustral Can. Den. UK US Switz. 1 . 6.49 1 2.80 8.99 1 2.45 -1 2.84 -21 .38 No rway Spain 64.1 6 48.1 1 1 3.58 -1 5.50 35.21 France 1 2 4.1 -36.1 0 46.71 B elg. A ustral 1 .1 1. 9 1 .71 Den. 25.52 -1 9 3.1 UK 0.57 UK 43.53 H.K. 1 9 4.1 Lowest Return Ger. 63.80 41 .20 -1 4.81 13 .1 Japan No rway Sing. UK 28.09 8.39 Japan B elg. 39.55 Ger. Japan Japan 28.31 B elg. US 1 .36 21 .92 -1 5 2.1 5.95 Sing. 2 0 12 Ger. Switz. A ustral . -1 0.31 49.46 UK 2 0 11 UK Swede -1n 4.41 A ustria -1 0.28 2 0 10 23.23 Can. Swede A ustria No rway n -20.99 -1 2.23 -22.29 Italy -7.33 2009 B elg. 1 3.77 H.K. -7.26 2008 Japan No rway Sweden -29.21 87.07 33.75 Switz. A ustral. Den. 22.62 -1 3.00 Italy H.K. Den. France -22.22 2007 Spain 49.36 49.36 23.24 Italy Italy 2006 Can. Den. 21 .87 -1 .82 France France US -1 2.39 2005 No rway Spain No rway A ustria No rway No rway No rway Japan -1 2.22 2004 21 .27 1 4.61 Italy -4.09 -1 .36 1 2003 Ger. Den. Neth. -1 9 9.1 No rway Neth. 31 .70 A ustria A ustral -5.65 -1. .34 No rway Spain -0.89 2002 A ustral . -9.95 France A ustral . 1 .94 1 6.07 UK Can. A ustral A ustral .7 . 35.1 5.40 5.34 28.63 1 .70 1 -3.1 5 35.39 Switz. A ustral . 6.1 8 9.30 99.40 2001 US Neth. -27.72 Swede Swede n 8 -30.49 n -27.1 28.41 1 2.24 4.41 Japan Japan Ger. Neth. US Italy -28.1 6 -29.40 -33.1 8 28.09 1 4 0.1 1 .90 UK 30.61 30.61 H.K. 30.35 30.35 1 3.24 UK 8.36 Italy US 1 4.67 1 4.67 Japan 6.24 6.24 21 .29 Neth. 20.59 Switz. 20.35 Den. UK Den. No rway 6.06 Swede n -49.86 36.57 8.76 -1 6.02 1 8.65 US Italy France Ger. H.K. US 5.44 -49.98 31 .83 8.44 -1 6.02 1 5.33 Switz. A ustral . 5.29 -50.67 Italy Neth. France UK 26.57 1 .74 -1 6.87 1 5.25 H.K. US B elg. Sing. Italy -51 .21 26.25 -0.42 -1 7.92 1 2.48 Ger. Can. Switz. A ustria 27.40 27.40 2.1 7 Can. 1 7.80 1 7.80 A ustria No rway Japan -48.22 43.20 1 0.95 -1 4.33 UK Neth. A ustria Sweden -48.34 42.25 9.88 -1 5.98 Swede No rway Switz. France n 0.62 -64.24 25.31 -4.1 1 B elg. B elg. Ger. Italy -2.73 -66.48 25.1 5 -1 5.01 Japan A ustria -4.23 -68.41 -1 8.08 9.09 Italy Japan -23.1 8 8.1 8 Japan Spain A ustria Spain 6.25 -21 .95 -36.43 In US dollars. Source: MSCI developed markets country indices (net dividends) with at least twenty-five years of data. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved; see MSCI disclosure page for additional information. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 3.00 9
  • 10. DV1040.9 Equity Returns of Developed Markets Annual Return (%) Boxed Return is highest return for the year. 1988 Australia Austria 36.40 1989 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 33.64 -10.82 35.17 5.40 11.19 16.49 -10.44 6.07 17.62 -9.95 1.68 -1.34 49.46 30.34 16.02 30.86 28.34 -50.67 76.43 14.52 -10.95 22.07 6.33 -12.23 -10.65 28.09 -6.28 -4.72 4.51 1.57 0.35 -9.11 -11.96 -5.65 16.55 56.96 71.52 24.64 36.54 2.17 -68.41 43.20 9.88 -36.43 25.90 1990 9.30 -17.54 0.57 103.91 1991 Belgium 53.63 17.29 -10.98 13.77 -1.47 23.51 8.24 25.88 12.03 13.55 67.75 -14.26 -16.85 -10.89 -14.97 35.33 43.53 9.05 36.66 -2.73 -66.48 57.49 -0.42 -10.62 39.55 Canada 17.07 24.30 -13.00 11.08 -12.15 17.58 -3.04 18.31 28.54 12.80 -6.14 53.74 5.34 -20.43 -13.19 54.60 22.20 28.31 17.80 29.57 -45.51 56.18 20.45 -12.71 9.09 Denmark 52.67 43.94 16.56 -28.25 32.81 3.77 18.78 21.79 34.52 8.99 12.06 3.44 -14.81 -16.03 49.25 30.82 24.50 38.77 25.59 -47.56 36.57 30.73 -16.02 31.27 France 37.87 36.15 -13.83 17.83 2.81 20.91 -5.18 14.12 21.20 11.94 41.54 29.27 -4.31 -22.36 -21.18 40.22 18.48 9.88 34.48 13.24 -43.27 31.83 -4.11 -16.87 21.29 Germany 20.60 46.26 -9.36 8.16 -10.27 35.64 4.66 16.41 13.58 24.57 29.43 20.04 -15.59 -22.39 -33.18 63.80 16.17 9.92 35.99 35.21 -45.87 25.15 8.44 -18.08 30.90 Hong Kong 28.12 8.39 9.17 32.29 116.70 -28.90 22.57 33.08 -23.29 -2.92 59.52 -14.74 -18.61 -17.79 38.10 24.98 8.40 30.35 41.20 -51.21 60.15 23.23 -16.02 28.27 Italy 11.46 19.42 -19.19 -1.82 -22.22 28.53 11.56 1.05 12.59 35.48 52.52 -0.26 -7.33 37.83 32.49 1.90 32.49 6.06 -49.98 26.57 -15.01 -23.18 12.48 Japan 35.39 1.71 -36.10 8.92 -21.45 25.48 21.44 0.69 -15.50 -23.67 5.05 61.53 -28.16 -29.40 -10.28 35.91 15.86 25.52 6.24 -4.23 -29.21 6.25 15.44 -14.33 8.18 Netherlands 14.19 35.79 2.30 35.28 11.70 27.71 27.51 -4.09 -22.10 -20.83 28.09 12.24 13.85 31.38 20.59 -48.22 42.25 1.74 -12.12 20.59 Norway 42.40 45.53 0.65 -15.50 -22.29 42.04 23.57 6.02 28.63 -0.89 -12.22 -7.26 48.11 38.39 24.26 45.12 31.43 -64.24 87.07 10.95 -10.01 18.65 Singapore 33.32 42.26 -11.66 6.28 67.97 6.68 6.45 -6.86 -30.05 -12.88 99.40 -27.72 -23.42 -11.05 37.60 22.27 14.37 46.71 28.35 -47.35 73.96 22.14 -17.92 30.96 Spain 13.53 9.76 -13.85 15.63 -21.87 29.78 -4.80 29.83 40.05 25.41 49.90 4.83 -15.86 -11.36 -15.29 58.46 28.93 4.41 49.36 23.95 -40.60 43.48 -21.95 -12.28 3.00 Sweden 48.33 31.79 -20.99 14.42 -14.41 36.99 18.34 33.36 37.21 12.92 13.96 79.74 -21.29 -27.18 -30.49 64.53 36.28 10.31 43.39 0.62 -49.86 64.16 33.75 -15.98 21.97 -0.91 -3.19 49.52 17.80 24.96 23.77 23.23 6.88 6.24 -30.06 31.70 -1.33 -26.59 Switzerland 6.18 26.21 -6.23 15.77 17.23 45.79 3.54 44.12 2.28 44.25 23.53 -7.02 5.85 -21.38 -10.31 34.08 14.96 16.33 27.40 5.29 -30.49 25.31 11.79 -6.77 20.35 UK 5.95 21.87 10.29 16.02 -3.65 24.44 -1.63 21.27 27.42 22.62 17.80 12.45 -11.53 -14.05 -15.23 32.06 19.57 7.35 30.61 8.36 -48.34 43.30 8.76 -2.56 15.25 US 14.61 30.01 -3.15 30.07 6.39 9.15 1.13 37.14 23.24 33.38 30.14 21.92 -12.84 -12.39 -23.09 28.41 10.14 5.14 14.67 5.44 -37.57 26.25 14.77 1.36 15.33 In US dollars. Source: MSCI developed markets country indices (net dividends) with at least twenty-five years of data. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved; see MSCI disclosure page for additional information. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 10
  • 11. DV1060.7 World Market Capitalization $37.5 Trillion as of December 31, 2012  Developed Markets  Emerging Markets  Frontier Markets Capitalization over time ($ trillions): In US dollars. Market cap data is free-float adjusted from Bloomberg securities data. Many small nations not displayed. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. For educational purposes; should not be used as investment advice. 1. An example large cap stock provided for comparison. 11
  • 12. ME1100.4 Market Efficiency I. Peter Lynch II. Warren E. Buffett III. Efficient Markets Hypothesis IV. US Large Cap Returns V. The Failure of Active Management VI. The Mutual Fund Landscape VII. Morningstar Predictive Power
  • 13. ME1120.4 Peter Lynch ―All the time and effort that people devote to picking the right fund, the hot hand, the great manager, have in most cases led to no advantage.‖ Peter Lynch, Beating the Street (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1993), 60. 13
  • 14. ME1130.2 Warren E. Buffett Chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. ―Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees.‖ Berkshire Hathaway Inc., 1996 Annual Report, chairman’s letter, in www.berkshirehathaway.com. 14
  • 15. ME1140.2 Efficient Markets Hypothesis Eugene F. Fama, University of Chicago The Hypothesis States: • Current prices incorporate all available information and expectations. • Current prices are the best approximation of intrinsic value. • Price changes are due to unforeseen events. • ―Mispricings‖ do occur but not in predictable patterns that can lead to consistent outperformance. Implications • Active management strategies cannot consistently add value through security selection and market timing. • Passive investment strategies reward investors with capital market returns. Eugene F. Fama, ―Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work,‖ Journal of Finance 25, no. 2 (May 1970): 383-417. Eugene F. Fama, ―Foundations of Finance,‖ Journal of Finance 32, no. 3 (June 1977): 961-64. 15
  • 16. ME1150.7 US Large Cap Returns 1997-2012 16 Annualized Compound Return (%) S&P 500 Index CRSP 1-10 Index Annualized Compound Returns (%) 5.34 Morningstar Fund Average 14 4.75 4.71 12 10 8 CRSP 1-10 Index S&P 500 Index Morningstar Fund Average 6 4 2 0 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 Number of Funds 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 Source: Morningstar data provided by Morningstar Inc. Includes all Morningstar US large cap funds with fifteen-year returns, distinct portfolios only, as of December 31, 2012. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. 16
  • 17. ME1160.8 The Failure of Active Management Percentage of active public equity funds that failed to beat the index Five Years as of December 2012 100% 90% 90% % of Active Funds That Failed to Outperform Benchmark 83% 80% 75% 76% 74% 70% 62% 60% 50% 40% 30% 21% 20% 10% 0% US Large Cap US Mid Cap US Small Cap Global International International Small Emerging Markets Equity Fund Category Source: Standard & Poor’s Indices Versus Active Funds Scorecard, year-end 2012. Index used for comparison: US Large Cap—S&P 500 Index; US Mid Cap—S&P MidCap 400 Index; US Small Cap—S&P SmallCap 600 Index; Global Funds—S&P Global 1200 Index; International—S&P 700 Index; International Small—S&P World ex. US SmallCap Index; Emerging Markets—S&P IFCI Composite. Data for the SPIVA study is from the CRSP Survivor-Bias-Free US Mutual Fund Database. 17
  • 18. ME1160.8 The Failure of Active Management Percentage of active public fixed income funds that failed to beat the index Five Years as of December 2012 100% 95% 94% 90% % of Active Funds That Failed to Outperform Benchmark 90% 80% 76% 70% 60% 59% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Government Long Government Intermediate Government Short InvestmentGrade Long InvestmentGrade Intermediate InvestmentGrade Short National Muni CA Muni Fixed Income Category Source: Standard & Poor’s Indices Versus Active Funds Scorecard, year-end 2012. Index used for comparison: Government Long—Barclays Capital US Long Government Index; Government Intermediate—Barclays Capital US Intermediate Government Index; Government Short—Barclays Capital US 1-3 Year Government Index; Investment Grade Long—Barclays Capital US Long Government/Credit; Investment Grade Intermediate—Barclays Capital US Intermediate Government/Credit; Investment Grade Short—Barclays Capital US 1-3 Year Government/Credit; National Muni—S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index; CA Muni—S&P California AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index. Data for the SPIVA study is from the CRSP Survivor-Bias-Free US Mutual Fund Database. Barclays Capital data, formerly Lehman Brothers, provided by Barclays Bank PLC. 18
  • 19. ME1161.1 The Mutual Fund Landscape 2013 report 19
  • 20. ME1161.1 The US Mutual Fund Industry Number of equity and fixed income funds, 2012 Number of funds as of December 2012. International equities include all non-US developed funds. Global fixed includes all non-US funds, both developed and emerging markets. See Data Appendix for more information. Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 20
  • 21. ME1161.1 The US Mutual Fund Industry Assets under management (in USD billions) 2003 2012 Assets under management as of the end of each December from 2003 to 2012. International equities include all non-US developed funds. Global fixed includes all non-US funds, both developed and emerging markets. See Data Appendix for more information. Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 21
  • 22. ME1161.1 Survivorship and Outperformance Performance periods ending December 31, 2012—equity funds Beginning sample includes funds as of the beginning of the one-, five-, and 10-year periods ending in 2012. The number of funds as of the beginning of each sample time period is indicated below the period label. Survivors are funds that are still in existence as of December 2012. Winners are funds that survive and beat their respective benchmarks over the period. See Data Appendix for more information. Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 22
  • 23. ME1161.1 Survivorship and Outperformance Performance periods ending December 31, 2012—fixed income funds Beginning sample includes funds as of the beginning of the one-, five-, and 10-year periods ending in 2012. The number of funds as of the beginning of each sample time period is indicated below the period label. Survivors are funds that are still in existence as of December 2012. Winners are funds that survive and beat their respective benchmarks over the period. See Data Appendix for more information. Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 23
  • 24. ME1161.1 Do Winners Keep Winning? Past performance vs. subsequent performance—equity funds The sample includes funds at the beginning of the three-, five-, and seven-year periods, ending in December 2009. The graph shows the proportion of funds that outperform and underperform their respective benchmarks. Winner funds are reevaluated in the subsequent period from 2010 to 2012, with the graph showing the proportion of outperformance and underperformance among past winners. See Data Appendix for more information. Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 24
  • 25. ME1161.1 Do Winners Keep Winning? Past performance vs. subsequent performance—fixed income funds The sample includes funds at the beginning of the three-, five-, and seven-year periods, ending in December 2009. The graph shows the proportion of funds that outperform and underperform their respective benchmarks. Winner funds are reevaluated in the subsequent period from 2010 to 2012, with the graph showing the proportion of outperformance and underperformance among past winners. See Data Appendix for more information. Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 25
  • 26. ME1161.1 High Costs Make Outperformance Difficult Winners and losers based on expense ratios (%)—equity funds The sample includes funds at the beginning of the one-, five-, and 10-year periods ending in 2012. Funds are ranked into quartiles based on average expense ratio over the sample period and performance is compared to their respective benchmarks. The chart shows the proportion of winner and loser funds within each expense ratio quartile. See Data Appendix for more information. Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 26
  • 27. ME1161.1 High Costs Make Outperformance Difficult Winners and losers based on expense ratios (%)—fixed income funds The sample includes funds at the beginning of the one-, five-, and 10-year periods ending in 2012. Funds are ranked into quartiles based on average expense ratio over the sample period and performance is compared to their respective benchmarks. The chart shows the proportion of winner and loser funds within each expense ratio quartile. See Data Appendix for more information. Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 27
  • 28. ME1161.1 High Trading Costs Make Outperformance Difficult Winners and losers based on turnover (%)—equity funds The sample includes equity funds at the beginning of the one-, five, and 10-year periods ending in 2012. Funds are ranked into quartiles based on average turnover during the sample period and performance is compared to their respective benchmarks. The chart shows the proportion of winner and loser funds within each turnover quartile. Fixed income funds are excluded from the analysis because turnover is not a good proxy for fixed income trading costs. See Data Appendix for more information. Data provided by the CRSP Mutual Fund Database. Source: CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 28
  • 29. ME1161.1 Report Summary The mutual fund landscape Findings • Most funds underperformed. • Strong track records failed to persist. • High costs and excessive turnover may have contributed to underperformance. Lessons • Markets do a good job of pricing securities. • Intense competition makes consistent outperformance difficult. • Managers face cost barriers as they try to beat the market. • Successful fund investing involves more than picking past winners. • Consider a fund’s market philosophy, investment objectives, strategy, trading costs, and other factors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 29
  • 30. ME1161.1 Data Appendix Research conducted by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Mutual fund data is from the CRSP Mutual Fund Database, provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Certain types of equity and fixed income funds were excluded from the performance study. For equities, sector funds and funds with a narrow investment focus, such as real estate and gold, were excluded. Money market funds, municipal bond funds, and asset-backed security funds were excluded from fixed income. Funds are identified using Lipper fund classification codes and are matched to their respective benchmarks at the beginning of the sample periods. Winner funds are those whose cumulative return over the period exceeded that of their respective benchmark. Loser funds are funds that did not survive the period or whose cumulative return did not exceed their respective benchmark. Expense ratio ranges — The ranges of expense ratios for equity funds over the one-, five-, and 10-year periods are 0.02% to 4.95%, 0.01% to 4.47%, and 0.02% to 4.43%, respectively. For fixed income funds, ranges over the same periods are 0.02% to 2.61%, 0.03% to 2.56%, and 0.10% to 2.32%, respectively. Portfolio turnover ranges — Ranges for equity fund turnover over the one-, five-, and 10-year periods are 1% to 1,135%, 1% to 5,062%, and 1% to 2,447%, respectively. Benchmark data provided by Barclays, MSCI, and Russell. Barclays data provided by Barclays Bank PLC. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved. Russell data copyright © Russell Investment Group 1995 2013, all rights reserved. Benchmark indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Mutual fund investment values will fluctuate, and shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than original cost. Diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 30
  • 31. RR1200.8 Risk/Return I. Capital Asset Pricing Model IX. II. Size and Value Effects Are Strong around the World Average US Small Cap and Value Premiums Following Multi-Year Runs X. Precision in Portfolios XI. Structure Determines Performance III. Historical US Value and Small Cap Premiums IV. Yearly Observations of the US Size, Value, and Market Premiums V. Five-Year Moving Average of the US Size, Value, and Market Premiums VI. Distribution of the US Size, Value, and Market Premiums VII. Distribution of the Market Returns VIII. US Small Cap and Value Performance Following a Run XII. Market Premium XIII. Market Risk Premium Is Countercyclical XIV. Risk and Return Are Related XV. The Risk Dimensions Deliver XVI. Five Factor Help Determine Expected Return
  • 32. RR1210.2 Capital Asset Pricing Model William Sharpe: Nobel Prize in Economics, 1990 Total Equity Risk Unsystematic Company Risk • Specific to firm or industry (lawsuit, fraud, etc.) • Diversifiable Unsystematic • No compensation Industry Risk Systematic Market Risk Systematic • Marketwide, affects all firms (war, recession, inflation, etc.) • Non-diversifiable • Investor compensation • Measured by beta Beta measures volatility relative to the total market. A beta higher than the market’s beta of 1 implies more volatility, and a beta lower than the market’s implies less volatility. 32
  • 33. RR1221.5 Historical US Value and Small Cap Premiums Annual VALUE MINUS GROWTH Top 30% – Bottom 30% Average Premium (%) Standard Deviation (%) SMALL MINUS LARGE Bottom 50% – Top 50% Average Premium (%) Standard Deviation (%) Jan 1926–Dec 2012 4.77 16.60 4.53 16.08 Jan 1946–Dec 2012 4.56 13.83 3.04 13.67 Jan 1975–Dec 2012 3.55 14.53 3.35 12.83 Data provided by Fama/French. 33
  • 34. RR1222.7 Yearly Observations of the US Size Premium Small Stocks minus Big Stocks 1927-2012 Average 60% Within 2% of Average Premiums within Range 50% 40% Return Premium 30% 20% 10% 3.58% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 1927 1944 1961 1978 1995 Multifactor data provided by Fama/French. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Securities of small firms are often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Even a long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and issuer-specific events will cause the value of securities, and the funds that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of investments will fluctuate, there is a risk that investors will lose money. 2012 34
  • 35. RR1222.7 Yearly Observations of the US Value Premium Value Stocks minus Growth Stocks 1927-2012 Average Within 2% of Average 50% Premiums within Range 40% 30% Return Premium 20% 10% 4.80% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 1927 1944 1961 1978 1995 Multifactor data provided by Fama/French. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Securities of small firms are often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Even a long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and issuer-specific events will cause the value of securities, and the funds that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of investments will fluctuate, there is a risk that investors will lose money. 2012 35
  • 36. RR1222.7 Yearly Observations of the US Market Premium Market minus One-Month Treasury Bills 1927-2012 Average 60% Within 2% of Average Premiums within Range 50% 40% 30% Return Premium 20% 10% 8.05% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 1927 1944 1961 1978 1995 2012 Data provided by Fama/French. Total US Market Research Factor (total market minus one-month Treasury bills). Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Securities of small firms are often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Even a long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and issuer-specific events will cause the value of securities, and the funds that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of investments will fluctuate, there is a risk that investors will lose money. 36
  • 37. RR1223.6 Five-Year Moving Average of the US Size and Value Premiums Annual: 1927–2012 US Size Premium • On an annualized basis, small cap and value stocks have had more positive than negative five-year periods relative to large cap and growth stocks. Annualized Return 25% • These periods typically offer stronger performance relative to large cap and growth. 15% 5% -5% -15% 1931 • Small cap and value stocks are still subject to extended periods of underperformance. 1940 1949 1958 1967 1958 1967 1976 1985 1994 2003 2012 US Value Premium 20% Annualized Return 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 1931 1940 1949 1976 1985 1994 2003 Multifactor data provided by Fama/French. SmB and HmL research factors. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Securities of small firms are often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Even a long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and issuer-specific events will cause the value of securities, and the funds that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of investments will fluctuate, there is a risk that investors will lose money. 2012
  • 38. RR1223.6 Five-Year Moving Average of the US Market Premium Annual: 1927–2012 30% 25% 20% Annualized Return 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 1931 1940 1949 1958 1967 1976 1985 1994 2003 2012 Data provided by Fama/French. Total US Market Research Factor (total market minus one-month Treasury bills). Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Securities of small firms are often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Even a long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and issuer-specific events will cause the value of securities, and the funds that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of investments will fluctuate, there is a risk that investors will lose money. 38
  • 39. RR1225.6 Distribution of the US Size Premium 1927–2012 18 16 Number of Years 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 ≥-30% ≥-25% ≥-20% ≥-15% ≥-10% ≥-5% ≥0% ≥5% ≥10% ≥15% ≥20% ≥25% ≥30% ≥35% ≥40% ≥45% ≥50% Return Premium (Small minus Large) 1998 1929 1973 1990 1989 1987 1972 1970 1969 1937 Average Annual Premium: 3.58% Green and orange years indicate 1990s and 2000s respectively. Data provided by Fama/French. SmB research factor. 2011 2007 1995 1986 1984 1963 1962 1955 1952 1948 1947 2005 2000 1997 1996 1994 1974 1964 1960 1957 1956 1954 1953 1951 1946 1941 1930 1927 2012 2008 2006 2004 2002 1985 1966 1961 1950 1949 1940 1931 1928 2009 1993 1992 1988 1982 1981 1980 1971 1959 1942 1939 1935 1932 2010 1983 1978 1976 1958 1938 2001 1999 1991 1975 1944 1936 1979 1977 1968 1965 2003 1945 1934 1943 1967 1933
  • 40. RR1225.6 Distribution of the US Value Premium 1927–2012 14 Number of Years 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 ≥-35% ≥-30% ≥-25% ≥-20% ≥-15% ≥-10% ≥-5% ≥0% ≥5% ≥10% ≥15% ≥20% ≥25% ≥30% ≥35% 2001 1993 1984 1973 1968 1963 1944 1942 1933 1992 1983 1976 1970 1981 1954 1950 1936 1943 2000 Return Premium (Value minus Growth) 1999 1980 1934 1939 1931 Average Annual Premium: 4.80% Green and orange years indicate 1990s and 2000s respectively. Data provided by Fama/French. HmL research factor. 2007 1991 1971 1938 1930 2011 2009 1998 1990 1969 1967 1957 1953 1951 1928 2010 1994 1989 1987 1979 1966 1960 1956 1949 1940 1937 1927 2008 2003 1996 1995 1985 1978 1972 1959 1952 1948 1946 2012 2005 2004 2003 1986 1977 1975 1974 1965 1962 1961 1955 1947 1932 2006 2002 1997 1988 1982 1964 1958 1945 1941 1935 1929 40
  • 41. RR1225.6 Distribution of the US Market Premium 1927–2012 12 Number of Years 10 8 6 4 2 0 ≥-50% ≥-45% ≥-40% ≥-35% ≥-30% ≥-25% ≥-20% ≥-15% ≥-10% ≥-5% ≥0% ≥5% ≥10% ≥15% ≥20% ≥25% ≥30% ≥35% ≥40% ≥45% ≥50% ≥55% Return Premium (Market minus One-Month T-Bills) 1931 2008 1974 1937 1930 1973 2002 2001 2000 1981 1969 1929 1990 1966 1962 1957 1941 1984 1977 1970 1946 1940 1932 1994 1987 1960 1953 Average Annual Premium: 8.05% Green and orange years indicate 1990s and 2000s respectively. Data provided by Fama/French. Total US market research factor (total market minus one-month Treasury bills). 2011 2007 2005 1978 1948 1947 1939 1934 1993 1992 1968 1959 1956 2006 2004 1988 1986 1983 1982 1979 1972 1971 1965 1964 1952 2012 2010 1998 1996 1963 1951 1949 1942 1999 1989 1985 1980 1976 1967 1961 1955 1944 2009 1997 1991 1950 1943 1938 2003 1995 1975 1936 1927 1945 1928 1958 1935 1954 1933
  • 42. RR1226.4 Distribution of US Market Returns CRSP 1-10 Index Returns by Year 1926–2012 Positive Years: 65 (25%) 1993 11.1 2004 12.0 1959 12.7 1952 13.4 1968 14.1 1965 14.5 2006 15.5 1942 16.0 1964 16.1 1971 16.1 2012 16.2 1986 16.2 1972 16.8 2010 17.9 1988 18.0 10% to 20% 20% to 30% (75%) Negative Years: 22 1949 20.2 1951 20.7 1963 21.0 1982 21.0 1944 21.3 1996 21.4 1983 22.0 1979 22.6 1998 24.3 1955 25.2 1999 25.3 1976 26.8 1961 26.9 1938 28.1 1943 28.4 1967 28.7 2009 28.8 1989 28.9 1950 29.6 1931 -43.5 2008 -36.7 1937 -34.7 1930 -28.5 1974 -27.0 2002 -21.1 1973 -18.1 1929 -14.6 2000 -11.4 2001 -11.1 1969 -10.9 1962 -10.2 1957 -10.1 1941 -10.0 1966 -8.7 1932 -8.7 1940 -7.1 1990 -6.0 1946 -5.9 1977 -4.3 1981 -3.6 1994 -0.1 1970 0.0 1953 0.7 2011 0.8 1960 1.2 1987 1.7 1948 2.1 1939 2.9 1947 3.6 1934 4.3 1984 4.5 2007 5.8 2005 6.2 1978 7.5 1956 8.3 1926 9.2 1992 9.8 -50% to -40% -40% to -30% -30% to -20% -20% to -10% -10% to 0% 0% to 10% • In 2008, the US stock market experienced its second worst performance year since 1926. • In 2009, US market performance was in the top quartile of historical calendar year returns. 1997 31.4 2003 31.6 1985 32.2 1936 32.3 1980 32.8 1927 33.4 1991 34.7 1995 36.8 1945 38.1 1975 38.8 1928 38.9 1935 44.3 1958 45.0 1954 50.0 1933 57.1 30% to 40% 40% to 50% 50% to 60% Annual Return Range CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. The CRSP 1-10 Index measures the performance of the total US stock market, which it defines as the aggregate capitalization of all securities listed on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ exchanges. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
  • 43. RR1227.6 US Small Cap Performance Following a Run Annual: January 1946–December 2012 Move to Large when Small outperforms for at least: Stay in Small all the time 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years Average Annual Return (%) 15.28 12.63 13.68 14.72 Compound Annualized Return (%) 12.78 10.62 11.49 12.41 Standard Deviation (%) 23.81 21.05 22.31 23.02 • For the period beginning January 1946, implementing a fixed timing strategy based on the duration of a small cap run would not earn higher returns than simply holding small cap all the time. • A small cap run of 3, 4, or 5 years offers no insight into whether small or large cap stocks will outperform in the next year. Data provided by Fama/French. The strategy of staying invested in Small Cap all the time is compared to timing rules that switch back and forth between Small Cap and Large Cap based on the length of the Small Cap Run. Each June 30, the timing rule looks back to see how many years in a row Small Cap has had a higher return than Large Cap. This is the Small Cap Run. If the Small Cap Run is at least 3 years (or 4, or 5), the timing rule switches to Large Cap for the next twelve months. At the end of those twelve months, the Small Cap Run is computed again, and the process is repeated. 43
  • 44. RR1227.6 US Value Performance Following a Run Annual: January 1946–December 2012 Move to Growth when Value outperforms for at least: Stay in Value all the time 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years Average Annual Return (%) 16.24 14.38 15.32 15.93 Compound Annualized Return (%) 14.26 12.54 13.40 14.03 Standard Deviation (%) 21.25 20.61 21.04 20.89 • For the period beginning January 1946, implementing a fixed timing strategy based on the duration of a value run would not earn higher returns than simply holding value all the time. • A value run of 3, 4, or 5 years offers no insight into whether value or growth stocks will outperform in the next year. Data provided by Fama/French. The strategy of staying invested in Value all the time is compared to timing rules that switch back and forth between Value and Growth based on the length of the Value Run. Each June 30, the timing rule looks back to see how many years in a row Value has had a higher return than Growth. This is the Value Run. If the Value Run is at least 3 years (or 4, or 5), the timing rule switches to Growth for the next twelve months. At the end of those twelve months, the Value Run is computed again, and the process is repeated. 44
  • 45. RR1229.6 Average US Small Cap Premiums Following Multi-Year Runs Annual SMALL MINUS LARGE Run = 3 Years Average Premium (%) Subsequent Premium (%) Run = 4 Years Events Subsequent Premium (%) Run = 5 Years Events Subsequent Premium (%) Events Jan 1926–Dec 2012 4.53 10.17 22 7.28 15 2.16 10 Jan 1946–Dec 2012 3.04 10.29 17 8.79 12 4.07 9 Jan 1975–Dec 2012 3.35 7.89 12 9.22 10 6.50 8 • In the January 1926–December 2012 period, there were 22 periods (events) when small cap beat large cap in three consecutive years. The Subsequent Premium in the following year averaged 10.17% across the 22 periods. A small cap run of 3, 4, or 5 years may not increase the likelihood of underperformance in the following year. Data provided by Fama/French. 45
  • 46. RR1229.6 Average US Value Premiums Following Multi-Year Runs Annual VALUE MINUS GROWTH Run = 3 Years Average Premium (%) Subsequent Premium (%) Run = 4 Years Events Subsequent Premium (%) Run = 5 Years Events Subsequent Premium (%) Events Jan 1926–Dec 2012 4.77 9.16 22 6.32 17 3.32 12 Jan 1946–Dec 2012 4.56 6.79 18 4.32 14 2.02 10 Jan 1975–Dec 2012 3.55 7.15 12 3.33 9 0.26 6 • In the January 1926–December 2012 period, there were 22 periods (events) when value beat growth in three consecutive years. The Subsequent Premium in the following year averaged 9.16% across the 22 periods. A value run of 3, 4, or 5 years may not increase the likelihood of underperformance in the following year. Data provided by Fama/French.
  • 47. RR1250.2 Precision in Portfolios Traditional Consulting Style Box Three-Factor Model Small Large Mid Growth Value Small Value Blend Growth • Traditionally, ―products‖ have been classified into rigid and sometimes arbitrary categories. • Style boxes force crude strategic allocation. Large • Using the three-factor model, the total portfolio is measured by factors that determine risk and expected return. • Freedom from brittle definitions allows precisely tuned portfolios. 47
  • 48. RR1255.1 Advancements in Research Single-Factor Model (1963) Market Size Effect (1981) Size Large Small Value Effect (1991) Expected Profitability (2012) Size Large Low Large High Small Low Small Size Direct Profitability High Large Small Low High Relative Price Low High Relative Price 48
  • 49. Structure Determines Performance Structured Exposure to Factors explain 96% of return variation • The vast majority of the variation in returns is due to risk factor exposure. • Market • Size • Value/Growth • After fees, traditional management typically reduces returns. Unexplained Variation is 4% THE MODEL TELLS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INVESTING AND SPECULATING THE MODEL TELLS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INVESTING AND SPECULATING average expected return = [minus T-bills] average excess return + sensitivity to market [market return minus T-bills] + sensitivity to size + [small stocks minus big stocks] Priced Risk • Positive expected return • Systematic • Economic • Long-term • Investing sensitivity to BtM [value stocks minus growth] + random error e(t) Unpriced Risk • Noise • Random • Short-term • Speculating
  • 50. Dimensions of Higher Expected Returns Annual Average US Premiums: 1927–2012 8.05% 4.80% 3.58% 2.52% 0.85% 1 Market Premium 2 Size Premium 3 BtM Premium All Equity Universe minus T-Bills Small Stocks minus Large Stocks 4 High BtM minus Low BtM 1. Credit premium data (1973–2012) provided by Barclays Bank PLC. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Equity premiums provided by Fama/French. Maturity premium data provided by © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook©, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). 5 Maturity Premium 6 Credit1 Premium LT Govt. minus T-Bills Int. Corp. minus LT Govt.
  • 51. RR1271.5 The Risk Dimensions Delivered July 1926–December 2012 US Value vs. US Growth US Small vs. US Large OVERLAPPING PERIODS In 25-Year Periods Value beat growth 100% of the time. Small beat large 97% of the time. In 20-Year Periods Value beat growth 100% of the time. Small beat large 88% of the time. In 15-Year Periods Value beat growth 99% of the time. 95% Small beat large 82% of the time. In 10-Year Periods Value beat growth 96% of the time. 91% Small beat large 75% of the time. In 5-Year Periods Value beat growth 86% of the time. 80% Small beat large 60% of the time. Periods based on rolling annualized returns. 739 total 25-year periods. 799 total 20-year periods. 859 total 15-year periods. 919 total 10-year periods. 979 total 5-year periods. Performance based on Fama/French Research Factors. Securities of small companies are often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Mutual funds distributed by DFA Securities LLC.
  • 52. RR1271.5 The Risk Dimensions Delivered January 1975–December 2012 January 1970–December 2012 International Value vs. International Growth International Small vs. International Large OVERLAPPING PERIODS In 25-Year Periods Value beat growth 100% of the time. Small beat large 100% of the time. In 20-Year Periods Value beat growth 100% of the time. Small beat large 97% of the time. In 15-Year Periods Value beat growth 100% of the time. Small beat large 83% of the time. In 10-Year Periods Value beat growth 100% of the time. Small beat large 80% of the time. In 5-Year Periods 96% Value beat growth 98% of the time. Small beat large 79% of the time. Based on rolling annualized returns. Rolling multi-year periods overlap and are not independent. This statistical dependence must be considered when assessing the reliability of long-horizon return differences. International Value vs. International Growth data: 157 overlapping 25-year periods. 217 overlapping 20-year periods. 277 overlapping 15-year periods. 337 overlapping 10-year periods. 397 overlapping 5-year periods. International Small vs. International Large data: 217 overlapping 25-year periods. 277 overlapping 20-year periods. 337 overlapping 15-year periods. 397 overlapping 10-year periods. 457 overlapping 5-year periods. International Value and Growth data provided by Fama/French from Bloomberg and MSCI securities data. International Small data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg, StyleResearch, London Business School, and Nomura Securities data. International Large is MSCI World ex USA Index gross of foreign withholding taxes on dividends; copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved.
  • 53. RR1272.6 Market Premium Fama/French US Market Research Factor Returns Monthly: January 1990–December 2012 Year Annual Return 1990 1991 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -13.80% -7.60% 0.90% 1.80% -3.50% 8.20% -1.10% -1.60% -9.90% -6.00% -1.90% 6.00% 2.40% 29.10% 4.40% 7.10% 2.50% -0.20% 3.60% -4.80% 4.20% 2.20% -1.60% 1.40% -4.10% 10.30% 1992 6.40% -0.50% 1.10% -2.70% 1.00% 0.40% -2.30% 3.70% -2.30% 1.00% 0.90% 3.80% 1.50% 1993 8.40% 1.00% 0.30% 2.30% -2.80% 2.70% 0.30% -0.30% 3.70% -0.20% 1.60% -2.00% 1.70% 1994 -4.10% 2.90% -2.60% -4.90% 0.70% 0.60% -3.10% 2.80% 3.90% -2.20% 1.10% -4.10% 0.80% 1995 31.00% 1.60% 3.60% 2.20% 2.10% 2.90% 2.70% 3.60% 0.50% 3.20% -1.60% 3.90% 1.00% 1996 16.20% 2.40% 1.20% 0.70% 2.10% 2.30% -1.20% -5.80% 2.80% 4.90% 0.90% 6.10% -1.60% 1997 26.10% 4.90% -0.50% -4.90% 3.80% 6.70% 4.00% 7.20% -4.00% 5.40% -3.90% 2.70% 1.30% 1998 19.40% 0.00% 6.90% 4.70% 0.70% -3.00% 2.80% -2.70% -16.20% 5.90% 7.10% 5.90% 5.90% 1999 20.20% 3.50% -4.20% 3.40% 4.50% -2.40% 4.70% -3.40% -1.40% -2.70% 5.80% 3.30% 8.00% 2000 -16.70% -4.40% 2.80% 4.90% -6.40% -4.40% 4.80% -2.20% 7.10% -5.60% -3.00% -10.80% 1.50% 2001 -14.80% 3.40% -10.30% -7.50% 8.00% 0.70% -2.00% -2.10% -6.20% -9.40% 2.60% 7.70% 1.60% 2002 -22.90% -1.80% -2.30% 4.30% -5.10% -1.20% -7.20% -8.30% 0.70% -10.10% 7.40% 6.00% -5.40% 2003 30.70% -2.40% -1.60% 0.90% 8.20% 6.30% 1.50% 2.20% 2.40% -1.00% 6.00% 1.60% 4.50% 2004 10.70% 2.20% 1.50% -1.20% -2.50% 1.40% 2.10% -3.90% 0.20% 2.00% 1.70% 4.70% 3.40% 2005 3.20% -2.80% 2.10% -1.90% -2.70% 3.60% 0.90% 4.10% -0.90% 0.80% -2.40% 3.70% 0.00% 2006 10.60% 3.70% -0.50% 1.50% 0.90% -3.50% -0.40% -0.60% 2.10% 1.50% 3.30% 2.00% 0.70% 2007 0.80% 1.50% -1.80% 0.90% 3.60% 3.50% -1.90% -3.60% 0.70% 3.80% 2.30% -5.30% -0.70% 2008 -38.40% -6.40% -2.30% -1.20% 5.00% 2.20% -8.00% -1.50% 1.00% -10.00% -18.60% -8.50% 2.10% 2009 29.10% -7.70% -10.10% 8.80% 11.10% 6.70% -0.30% 8.20% 3.20% 4.50% -2.80% 5.70% 2.90% 2010 18.00% -3.70% 3.50% 6.40% 2.00% -8.00% -5.20% 7.20% -4.40% 9.20% 3.90% 0.60% 6.80% 2011 -0.90% 0.50% 3.90% 0.30% 2.80% -1.50% -1.90% -2.40% -5.90% -8.40% 11.50% -0.60% 0.50% 2012 15.00% 5.10% 4.40% 3.10% -0.80% -6.20% 3.90% 0.80% 2.60% 2.70% 1.80% 0.80% 1.20% Indicates a monthly return greater than 6.0% or less than -6.0%. Monthly returns greater than 6% 25 Monthly returns less than 6% 21 Sources: Fama/French data provided by Fama/French. Indices are not available for direct investment; their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 53
  • 54. RR1272.6 Market Premium Fama/French US Market Research Factor Returns Monthly: January 1990–December 2012 20% 15% Highest Monthly Return: 11.5% (Oct 2011) Monthly Return 10% 5% Average Monthly Return: 0.53% 0% -5% Lowest Monthly Return: -18.6% (Oct 2008) -10% -15% -20% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Sources: Fama/French data provided by Fama/French. Indices are not available for direct investment; their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 54
  • 55. RR1272.6 S&P 500 Index Returns Monthly: January 1990–December 2012 20% 15% Highest Monthly Return: 11.4% (Dec 1991) Monthly Return 10% 5% Average Monthly Return: 0.78% 0% -5% Lowest Monthly Return: -16.8% (Oct 2008) -10% -15% -20% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Sources: Dimensional; the S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Indices are not available for direct investment; their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 55
  • 56. RR1273.3 Market Risk Premium Is Countercyclical Business Cycle Peak Trough Risk Premium The risk premium is the additional return an investor requires to compensate for the risk borne. Business cycle is a repetitive cycles of economic expansion and contractions. Peak is the high point at the end of an economic expansion until the start of a contraction. Trough is the transition point between economic recession and recovery. 56
  • 57. Risk and Return Are Related Dimensions of Stock Returns around the World Small • Equity Market (complete value-weighted universe of stocks) Stocks tend to have higher expected returns than fixed income over time. • Company Size (measured by market capitalization) Small company stocks tend to have higher expected returns than large company stocks over time. • Company Price (measured by ratio of company book value to market equity) Lower-priced ―value‖ stocks tend to have higher expected returns than higher-priced ―growth‖ stocks over time. Increased Risk Exposure and Expected Return Value Growth Decreased Risk Exposure and Expected Return Total Stock Market Large Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, ―The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns,‖ Journal of Finance 47, no. 2 (June 1992): 427-65. Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French are consultants for Dimensional Fund Advisors. This page contains the opinions of Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French but not necessarily of Dimensional Fund Advisors or DFA Securities LLC, and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. Dimensional Fund Advisors (―Dimensional‖) is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All materials presented are compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This article is distributed for educational purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, products or services described. ©2012 by Dimensional Fund Advisors. All rights reserved.
  • 58. LT1300.7 Long-Term Discipline I. The Importance of Long-Term Discipline II. The Stock Market’s Reaction III. Performance of the S&P 500 Index IV. Historical Performance vs. Large Stocks V. Bull and Bear Markets VI. The Market’s Response to Crisis VII. Stocks vs. The Risk-Free Rate VIII. Volatility and Market Downturns IX. Long-Term Market Stability X. Perils of Market Timing XI. Missing Opportunity XII. Recessionary Periods 58
  • 59. LT1310.7 The Importance of Long-Term Discipline Annualized Compound Returns (%) 1926-2012 1965-1981 1982-2012 S&P 500 Index 9.84 6.33 11.14 One-Month US Treasury Bills 3.53 6.66 4.49 The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. One-Month US Treasury Bills data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). For illustrative purposes only. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. 59
  • 60. LT1320.2 The Stock Market’s Reaction As Measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average First Trading Session Response Prior Day Close Subsequent Market Behavior Close Change Percent Change 9,605.51 8,920.70 -684.81 -7.13% -3.66% 11.12% -8.71% US launches bombing attack on Iraq 2,508.91 2,623.51 114.60 4.57% 16.97% 18.93% 29.52% August 2, 1990 Iraq invades Kuwait 2,899.26 2,864.60 -34.66 -1.20% -8.74% -4.67% 4.95% March 30, 1981 President Reagan shot by John Hinckley Jr. 994.78 992.16 -2.62 -0.26% 1.95% -14.33% -16.90% August 9, 1974 President Nixon resigns 784.89 777.30 -7.59 -0.97% -14.71% -8.87% 5.98% November 22, 1963 President Kennedy assassinated in Dallas 732.64 711.48 -21.16 -2.89% 6.57% 15.37% 24.99% October 22, 1962 Cuban missile crisis 568.60 558.06 -10.54 -1.85% 15.55% 27.41% 33.89% September 24, 1955 President Eisenhower heart attack 487.44 455.55 -31.89 -6.54% 0.04% 12.48% 5.72% June 25, 1950 North Korea invades South Korea 224.30 213.90 -10.40 -4.64% -4.49% 7.34% 15.13% December 7, 1941 Japan attacks Pearl Harbor, Hawaii 115.90 112.52 -3.38 -2.92% -0.86% -6.19% 2.88% Date Event September 11, 2001 World Trade Center towers destroyed January 16, 1991 Dow Jones data provided by Dow Jones Indexes. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. One Six Month Months One Year 60
  • 61. LT1330.9 Performance of the S&P 500 Index Daily: January 1, 1970-December 31, 2012 $58,769 Growth of $1,000 $52,702 $38,212 $22,191 $13,999 $9,195 Total Period Annualized Compound Return 9.94% Missed 1 Best Day 9.66% Missed 5 Best Single Days 8.84% Missed 15 Best Single Days 7.47% Missed 25 Best Single Days 6.33% One-Month US T-Bills 5.30% Performance data for January 1970-August 2008 provided by CRSP; performance data for September 2008-December 2012 provided by Bloomberg. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. US bonds and bills data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Dimensional Fund Advisors is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Information contained herein is compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy should be placed in the context of underlying assumptions. This publication is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Unauthorized copying, reproducing, duplicating, or transmitting of this material is prohibited. Date of first use: June 1, 2006. 61
  • 62. LT1330.8 Performance of the S&P 500 Index Daily: January 1, 1970-December 31, 2012 • The best single day was October 13, 2008. Best/Worst Missed Period • The best one-month return, October 1974, happened immediately after the second-worst one-year period. • 8 of the top 25 days occurred between September 2008 and February 2009, during which time the S&P dropped 41.8% • 5 of the Top 10 days occurred between October 2008 and November 2008, during which time, the S&P 500 dropped 22.8%. 14% Annualized Compound Returns % • The occurrence of strongly positive returns has been especially unpredictable. Investors attempting to wait out an apparent downturn ran a high risk of missing these best periods. Day 12% 3 Months Ending 10/19/87 10/87 11/08 2/09 10.49% Total Period Month 6 Months Ending 12 Months Ending 10.56% 10.84% 11.33% 11.40% 9.66% 9.55% 9.05% 8.73% 10/13/08 10/74 2/09 Worst Periods and the Return If Missed 9.94% 10% 8% 6% 9.33% 10/82 6/75 6/83 Best Periods and the Return If Missed 4% 2% 0% Time periods greater than one month are based on monthly rolling periods, and dates indicated are end of period. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Dimensional Fund Advisors is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Information contained herein is compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy should be placed in the context of underlying assumptions. This publication is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Unauthorized copying, reproducing, duplicating, or transmitting of this material is prohibited. Date of first use: June 1, 2006.
  • 63. LT1340.9 Value Stocks vs. Large Stocks Monthly: July 1926-December 2012 Rolling Time Periods Total Number of Periods Number of Periods US Large Value Index Outperformed S&P 500 Index 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years 30 Years 40 Years 1027 1003 979 919 859 799 679 559 573 654 735 751 775 766 679 559 96% 100% 100% 90% 82% 75% 65% 56% Percentage of All Rolling Periods Where US Large Value Index Outperformed S&P 500 Index US Large Value Index is Fama/French US Large Value Index (ex utilities), provided by Fama/French. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Even a long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and issuer-specific events will cause the value of securities, and the portfolios that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of your investment in a portfolio will fluctuate, there is a risk that you will lose money. Indexes are referred to for comparative purposes only and do not represent similar asset classes in terms of components or risk exposure; thus, their returns may vary significantly. The S&P 500 Index measures the performance of large cap US stocks. US Large Value Index measures the performance of US stocks with lower price-to-book ratios.
  • 64. LT1340.9 Small Stocks vs. Large Stocks Monthly: January 1926-December 2012 Rolling Time Periods Total Number of Periods Number of Periods US Small Cap Index Outperformed S&P 500 Index 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years 30 Years 40 Years 1033 1009 985 925 865 805 685 565 551 536 570 593 622 658 629 565 100% 92% 82% 72% 64% 58% 53% 53% Percentage of All Rolling Periods Where US Small Cap Index Outperformed S&P 500 Index The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Even a long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and issuer-specific events will cause the value of securities, and the portfolios that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of your investment in a portfolio will fluctuate, there is a risk that you will lose money. Securities of small companies are often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Indexes are referred to for comparative purposes only and do not represent similar asset classes in terms of components or risk exposure; thus, their returns may vary significantly. The S&P 500 Index measures the performance of large cap US stocks. The CRSP 610 Index measures the performance of US small cap stocks, those in the five smallest deciles of the US market.
  • 65. LT1340.9 Large Stocks vs. Fixed Income Monthly: January 1926-December 2012 Rolling Time Periods Number of Periods S&P 500 Index Outperformed One-Month T-Bills 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years 30 Years 40 Years 1033 1009 985 925 865 805 685 565 709 754 739 774 821 805 685 565 100% Total Number of Periods 1 Year 100% 100% 95% 84% 75% 75% 69% Percentage of All Rolling Periods Where S&P 500 Index Outperformed One-Month T-Bills The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. One-Month Treasury Bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Even a long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and issuer-specific events will cause the value of securities, and the portfolios that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of your investment in a portfolio will fluctuate, there is a risk that you will lose money. Indexes are referred to for comparative purposes only and do not represent similar asset classes in terms of components or risk exposure; thus, their returns may vary significantly. The S&P 500 Index measures the performance of large cap US stocks. One-Month T-Bills measure the performance of US government-issued Treasury bills.
  • 66. LT1370.15 Bull and Bear Markets S&P 500 Index (USD) Daily Returns: January 1, 1926–June 30, 2013 Average Duration Bull Market Bear Market Average Return Bull Market Bear Market 413 Days 216 Days 58% -21% 303% 220% 156% 121% 119% 100% 99% 87% 113% 96% 91% 83% 59% 53% 44% 40% 23% 26% 25% 22% 27% 20% 56% 44% 19% 26% 18% 26% 84% 78% 69% 50% 38% 22% 15% 73% 27% 48% 38% 26% 21% 6/30/2012 58% 37% 50% 16% 35% 23% 21% 13% 1% -13% -11% -13% -16% -39% -15% -13% -33% -14% -53% -25% -10% -11% -26% -11% -13% -16% -11% -10% -11% -13% -21% -27% -11% -27% -11% -10% -13% -15% -20% -13% -13% -16% -12% -21% -32% -10% -19% -33% -12% -12% -11% -19% -45% -14% -47% -16% -19% -55% -85% 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Indices are not available for direct investment; its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The S&P data are provided by CRSP (January 1, 1926–August 31, 2008) and Bloomberg (September 1, 2008–present). Returns include reinvested dividends. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative daily returns. A bear market (1) begins with a negative daily return, (2) must achieve a cumulative return less than or equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points which are not considered part of a bear market are designated as a bull market. Performance data represents past performance and does not predict future performance. 2011
  • 67. LT1370.15 Bull and Bear Markets S&P 500 Index (USD) Monthly Returns: January 1926–June 30, 2013 116 mos. 491% Average Duration Bull Market Bear Market Average Return Bull Market Bear Market 30 Months 11 Months Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market % = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market 111% -26% 92 mos. 355% 61 mos. 282% 44 mos. 193% 49 mos. 210% 2 mos. 92% 6 mos. 100% 3 mos. 23 mos. 26% 133% 4 mos. 9 mos. 12% 48 mos. 105% 61% 43 mos. 90% 5 mos. 22% 61 mos. 108% 9 mos. 33 mos. 30 mos. 55% 86% 26 mos. 76% 15 mos. 52% 35% 30 mos. 71% 24 mos. 63% 14 mos. 65% 10 mos. 34% Jun 2013 48% 5 mos. 12% 6 mos. 4 mos. -30% 13 mos. -16% 2 mos. -50% 31 mos. 34 mos. -19% -30% -83% 6 mos. -21% 4 mos. -10% 1925 1930 1935 1940 7 mos. -10% 5 mos. -15% 6 mos. -22% 1945 1950 1955 3 mos.14 mos. 20 mos. 6 mos. 8 mos. -11% -14% -17% -16% 19 mos. 21 mos. -22% -29% -43% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 5 mos. 3 mos. -15% -30% 1990 2 mos. -15% 1995 25 mos. -45% 2000 Indices are not available for direct investment; its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A bear market (1) begins with a negative monthly return, (2) must achieve a cumulative return less than or equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points which are not considered part of a bear market are designated as a bull market. 5 mos. -16% 2 mos. 16 mos. -13% -51% 2005 2010
  • 68. LT1370.15 Bull and Bear Markets Russell 2000 Index (USD) Monthly Returns: January 1979–June 2013 Average Duration Bull Market Bear Market 18 Months 8 Months 67 mos. 234% Average Return Bull Market Bear Market 68% -23% Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market % = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market 11 mos. 14 mos. 100% 22 mos. 82% 22 mos. 8 mos. 22 mos. 69% 3 mos. 21 mos. 65% 38% 14 mos. 85% 18 mos. 87% 74% 8 mos. 50% 11 mos. 26% Jun 2013 25 mos. 57% 32% 56% 45% 2 mos. 12% 4 mos. 2 mos. -11% 2 mos. 14 mos. -20% -22% 13 mos. -21% 2 mos. 3 mos. 4 mos. -12% -12% -11% -11% 3 mos. -36% 13 mos. 4 mos. -30% -32% 4 mos. -16% 31 mos. -35% 5 mos. -25% 21 mos. -53% 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Indices are not available for direct investment; its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Russell data copyright © Russell Investment Group 1995–2013, all rights reserved. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A bear market (1) begins with a negative, (2) must achieve a cumulative return less than or equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points which are not considered part of a bear market are designated as a bull market. 2009 2011 2013
  • 69. LT1370.15 Bull and Bear Markets MSCI EAFE Index, Net Dividends (USD) Monthly Returns: January 1970–June 30, 2013 Average Duration Bull Market Bear Market 37 mos. 323% 24 Months 11 Months Average Return Bull Market Bear Market 87% -23% 55 mos. 206% Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market % = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market 34 mos. 57mos. 39 mos. 103% 93% 67% 7 mos. 41% 93% 18 mos. 47% 36% 4 mos. 5 mos. -15% -13% 18 mos. 9 mos. -13% 2 mos. -11 % 17 mos. -20% 53% 5 mos. 8 mos. 26% 19% 5 mos. 15 mos. 26 mos. 13 mos. 4 mos. -15% 20 mos. 2 mos. -17% 18% 9 mos. -15% 4 mos. 2 mos. -11% -15% -31% Jun 2013 39 mos. -42% Feb 2009 16 mos. -48% -57% 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 Indices are not available for direct investment; its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A bear market (1) begins with a negative monthly return, (2) must achieve a cumulative return less than or equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points which are not considered part of a bear market are designated as a bull market. 2010 -18%
  • 70. LT1370.15 Bull and Bear Markets MSCI Emerging Markets Index, Gross Dividends (USD) Monthly Returns: January 1988–June 2013 Average Duration Bull Market Bear Market Average Return Bull Market Bear Market 15 Months 6 Months 72% -26% Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market % = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market 19 mos. 109% 17 mos. 101% 98% 21 mos. 114% 16 mos. 17 mos. 18 mos. 92% 16 mos. 89% 85% 4 mos. 31% 8 mos. 7 mos. 29 mos. 43% 42% 38% 5 mos. 21% 5 mos. 1 mo. 1 mo. -12% -14% 4 mos. 3 mos. 4 mos. 2 mos. -14% -12% 5 mos. -25% -11% -11% -29% 5 mos. Jun 2013 -24% -18% 18 mos. 13 mos. -48% Feb 2009 16 mos. -56% 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 -61% Indices are not available for direct investment; its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A bear market (1) begins with a negative monthly return, (2) must achieve a cumulative return less than or equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points which are not considered part of a bear market are designated as a bull market. 2010 2012
  • 71. LT1385.5 The Market’s Response to Crisis Performance of a Normal Balanced Strategy: 60% Stocks, 40% Bonds Cumulative Total Return After 1 year After 3 years 84% After 5 years 59% 50% 50% 48% 42% 35% 21% 20% 21% 13% 12% 8% 1% -2% October 1987: Stock Market Crash August 1989: US Savings and Loan Crisis -5% September 1998: Asian Contagion Russian Crisis Long-Term Capital Management Collapse March 2000: Dot-Com Crash -4% September 2001: Terrorist Attack September 2008: Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Balanced Strategy: 7.5% each S&P 500 Index, CRSP 6-10 Index, US Small Value Index, US Large Value Index; 15% each International Value Index, International Small Index; 40% BofA Merrill Lynch One-Year US Treasury Note Index. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. The Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; copyright 2012 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. US Small Value Index and US Large Value Index provided by Fama/French. International Value Index provided by Fama/French. International Small Cap Index compiled by Dimensional from StyleResearch securities data; includes securities of MSCI EAFE countries in the bottom 10% of market capitalization, excluding the bottom 1%; market-cap weighted; each country capped at 50%; rebalanced semiannually. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not to be construed as investment advice. Returns of model portfolios are based on back-tested model allocation mixes designed with the benefit of hindsight and do not represent actual investment performance. 71
  • 72. LT1387.6 Stocks vs. the Risk-Free Rate January 1926–December 2012 The S&P 500 has Beaten Treasury Bills in 83% of all Ten-Year Periods Rolling 120-Month Annualized Returns (925 Total Periods) January 1926–December 2012 Annualized Return S&P 500 Index: 9.8% One-Month Treasury Bills: 3.5% 22% 20% 18% 16% Annualized Returns 14% 12% 10% S&P 500 Index 8% 6% 4% 2% One-Month Treasury Bills 0% -2% -4% Rolling 120-Month Periods Beginning at Date Shown -6% 1926 1938 1950 1962 1974 1986 1998 The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. US long-term bonds, bills, inflation, and fixed income factor data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not to be construed as investment advice.
  • 73. LT1388.6 Long-Term Returns vs. Short-Term Volatility 1999 S&P 500 Illustration April 1999 Daily Returns Total Month of April Return: 3.9% S&P 500 $2,980 Dec 2010 -2.24% 1 15 30 During this month, the S&P 500 had 10 days of negative returns out of 21 trading days. 1999 Monthly Returns Total Annual Return: 21% 21.04% -0.49% J • Even during periods of positive stock returns, investors may experience substantial volatility. -3.11% F M A -2.36% -3.12% -2.74% M J J A S O N D During this year, the S&P 500 had 5 out of 12 months with negative returns. • Short-term volatility is a typical characteristic of stock market investing. • Long-term returns are the sum of short-term volatility. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not to be construed as investment advice.
  • 74. LT1388.7 Market Downturns—A Historical Perspective Individual Index Monthly Downturns As of December 31, 2012 Domestic Large Cap Fund Equivalent Index Start Date End Date Threshold Months at or below Threshold Months in Sample Percentage of Months below Threshold Domestic Small Cap International Emerging S&P 500 Index January 1926 December 2012 -7% 63 1,044 6.0% CRSP 6-10 Index January 1926 December 2012 -7% 111 1,044 10.6% MSCI EAFE Index January 1970 December 2012 -7% 33 516 6.4% MSCI Emerging Markets Index January 1988 December 2012 -7% 37 300 12.3% 21.1% 16.4% 16.1% 13.9% 10.4% 11.1% 12.8% 11.2% 8.0% 11.8% 13.1% 12.3% Annualized Average Compound Return over Subsequent Periods (starting the next month) 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 9.1% 9.5% 9.9% 8.4% • Individual asset class volatility and negative returns have occurred in the past. • Despite these downturns, investors who remained disciplined were rewarded in the long run. • Use balanced diversified portfolios and focus on longterm results. Sources: The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group; CRSP Index returns from the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago; MSCI data copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved. MSCI EAFE Index is net of foreign withholding taxes on dividends. MSCI Emerging Markets Index is gross of foreign withholding taxes on dividends. Annualized average compound return over subsequent periods is calculated as the compound growth rate required to produce the average total return over the same time period. Performance for periods greater than one year are annualized. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results and there is always the risk that an investor may lose money. 74

Editor's Notes

  1. Talking Points:While emerging market stock markets around the world often outperform the US market, this performance is unpredictable and at times extreme.This table ranks annual stock market performance in US dollar terms for twenty-two different emerging markets (from highest to lowest) over the last fifteen years. The colors correspond to the countries featured on the next slide, and the patchwork dispersion of colors shows no predictable pattern. Investors who follow a structured, diversified strategy are more likely to capture the returns wherever they happen to occur.
  2. Talking Points:Investing in securities markets outside the US helps build more extensive diversification into a portfolio.This chart shows annual performance in US dollar terms of twenty-two emerging market stock markets for the last fifteen years, highlighting the top performer in each calendar year. Although many investors prefer to keep their capital close to home, they may pay a high price in terms of lower diversification and missed opportunity.
  3. Talking Points:This cartogram depicts the world not according to land mass, but by the size of each country’s stock market relative to the world’s total market value (free-float adjusted).  Population, gross domestic product, exports, and other economic measures may influence where people invest. But the map offers a different way to view the universe of equity investment opportunities. If markets are efficient, global capital will migrate to destinations that offer the most attractive risk-adjusted expected returns. Therefore, the relative size and growth of markets may help in assessing the political, economic, and financial forces at work in countries. The cartogram brings into sharp relief the investible opportunity of each country relative to the world. It avoids distortions that may be created or implied by attention to economic or fundamental statistics, such as population, consumption, trade balances, or GDP. By focusing on an investment metric rather than on economic reports, the chart further reinforces the need for a disciplined, strategic approach to global asset allocation. Of course, the investment world is in motion, and these proportions will change over time as capital flows to markets that offer the most attractive returns.  The countries we used this year are the same countries represented in the MSCI All Country World IMI Index and the MSCI Frontier Markets Index, with the exception of Saudi Arabia, which was added this year. While we used the same countries as in the MSCI Indices, we did not use the same list of stocks. This year’s map includes a greater representation of small cap stocks, particularly in the emerging and frontier countries, which explains the market capitalization fluctuations in countries such as Chile and Turkey as compared to last year. New this year, Israel has moved from being an emerging to a developed market; and Colombia, Egypt, and Peru have been added to the emerging markets where Dimensional invests. Some Dimensional emerging market strategies may not invest in all of the designated emerging markets.
  4. The efficient markets hypothesis implies that no active investor will consistently beat the market over long periods of time, except by chance. Yet active managers test the hypothesis every day through their efforts to pick stocks and time markets. The evidence shows that their efforts are not worth the high cost borne by investors. This slide displays the percentage of actively managed public equity funds that failed to outperform their respective market benchmarks for each major fund category for the five-year period ending December 2012. Most of the fund categories failed to beat their respective benchmark as a group. This is consistent with research, which shows that, as a group, active managers underperform the market by an amount equivalent to their average fees and expenses. The lone exception is the international small fund manager category during the period. As indicated in the graph, 21% of this group failed to beat the respective benchmark, which is the S&P Developed ex-US Small Cap index. More detailed analysis reveals that many managers in the international small category had significant holdings in emerging market stocks, which is a different asset class that had stronger performance during the period. The large percentage of outperformance among international small managers may result from a large portion of them holding a different asset class and being compared to the wrong benchmark.If the manager group’s average return is benchmarked to an international small cap index that includes emerging markets, the rate of underperformance rises to over 60%, which is in line with the other equity fund categories. (Benchmark is the MSCI All Country World ex USA Small Cap Index.)
  5. Research by Eugene Fama and other financial academics has offered evidence that the bond markets are efficient and that interest rates and bond prices do not move predictably. This appears to be the case with all types of issues, from short-term government instruments to long-term corporate bonds. This slide illustrates the formidable challenge that active bond managers face. The graph shows the percentage of active fixed income funds in each category that failed to beat their respective market benchmark for the five-year period ending December 2012. All categories had at least a 40% failure rate, with failure defined as underperforming their benchmark. This is consistent with financial theory and research, which propose that active managers cannot outperform the market as a group, particularly after accounting for management fees, trading costs, and other expenses.
  6. This histogram quantifies the distribution of the size premium in the US equity market. Each bar represents a range of return premiums (horizontal axis) and the number of years the premium was in that range (vertical axis). For example, there were six years in which small cap outperformed large cap by at least 15% but less than 20%. Those six years are listed below the bar as 2001, 1999, 1991,1975,1944, and 1936. The green and orange years indicate the 1990s and 2000s, respectively.This histogram suggests that the size effect has been positive slightly more than half the time since 1927—and most of the annual premiums have occurred in the 0% to 10% range. When small cap stocks have underperformed large cap stocks, most negative premiums have occurred in the range of -10% or less.
  7. This histogram quantifies the distribution of the value premium in the US equity market. Each bar represents a range of returns (horizontal axis) and the number of years the return was in that range (vertical axis). For example, there were 14 years in which value outperformed growth by at least 5% but less than 10%. The individual years are listed below the bar, starting with 2012. The green and orange years indicate the 1990s and 2000s, respectively.This histogram suggests that the value effect has been positive more than 60% of the time since 1927—and most of this annual outperformance has occurred in the 0% to 20% premium range. When value stocks have underperformed growth stocks, most negative premiums have occurred in the range of -15% or less.
  8. This histogram quantifies the distribution of the annual US market premium since 1927. Each bar represents a range of return premiums (horizontal axis) and the number of years the premium was in that range (vertical axis). For example, there were five years in which the US market outperformed T-bills by at least 5% but less than 10%. Those years are listed below the bar in descending order (1993, 1992, 1968, etc.). The green and orange years indicate the 1990s and 2000s, respectively. This histogram suggests that the market premium has been positive about two-thirds of the time since 1927—and most of the annual premiums have occurred in the 0% to 25% range. When the market has delivered lower returns than T-bills, most of these negative premiums have occurred in the range of -15% or less.
  9. Exposure to three equity risk factors and two fixed income risk factors accounts for most of a diversified portfolio's expected return. The three equity risk factors are: Market—stocks have higher expected returns than fixed income securities.Size—small cap stocks have higher expected returns than large cap stocks.Book-to-Market (BtM)—lower-priced “value” (high BtM) stocks have higher expected returns than higher-priced “growth” stocks (low BtM). Two additional risk factors reflect compensated risk in the fixed income markets. These are: Maturity—longer-term bonds are riskier than shorter-term instruments.Credit—instruments of lower credit quality are riskier than instruments of higher credit quality. The credit premium only covers 1973-2012.The historical return premiums for these risk factors are documented in the graph. Equities have offered a higher expected return than fixed income, but these stronger premiums come with higher risk. Structuring a portfolio around compensated risk factors can change many aspects of the investment process. Rather than focusing on individual stock or bond selection, investors work to achieve diversified, controlled exposure to the risk factors that drive expected returns. An investor first determines his portfolio’s stock/bond mix, and then decides how much additional small cap and value to hold in pursuit of higher expected returns. The level of risk assumed in the fixed income component may depend on why an investor is holding fixed income. For example, an equity-driven investor who wants to reduce portfolio volatility may hold less risky debt instruments, while an investor pursuing higher yield or income may take more maturity and default risk.
  10. This slide documents the frequency with which the value and size premiums have been positive over various time periods in the US stock market from 1926 to 2012.  As the results illustrate, US value stocks have outperformed US growth stocks—and US small cap stocks have outperformed US large cap stocks—in a majority of all the rolling return periods measured. The US value premium has been positive more often than the size premium. The time periods, which range from five to twenty-five years, are based on annualized returns for rolling 12-month periods (e.g., January-December, February-January, March-February, etc.). The total number of 12-month periods for each time frame is indicated in the footnotes.
  11. This slide documents the frequency with which the value premium, from 1975-2012, and the size premium, from 1970-2012, have been positive over various time periods in the international (non-US) developed stock markets.  In the international markets, value stocks have outperformed growth stocks—and small cap stocks have outperformed large cap stocks—in a majority of all rolling return periods measured. The value premium has been strongly positive more often than the size premium. The time periods, which range from five to twenty-five years, are based on annualized returns for rolling 12-month periods (e.g., January-December, February-January, March-February, etc.). The total number of 12-month periods for each time frame is indicated in the footnotes. The set of available data for non-US developed markets is considerably shorter than US markets. As a result, the smaller set of observations can amplify the effect of sustained periods of negative or positive premiums. This may explain part of the frequency difference between the 20-year and 15-year periods for the international small cap premium.
  12. The harsh reality of market efficiency has not stopped speculators and other traders from attempting to read the future. On paper, market timing offers a seductive prospect: By predicting market direction ahead of time, a trader might capture only the best-performing days and avoid the worst. This slide tells the other side of that story. Large gains may come in quick, unpredictable surges. A trader who misinterprets events may leave the market at the wrong time. Missing only a small fraction of days—especially the best days—can defeat a timer’s strategy.For example, since 1970, missing the best 25 trading days would have significantly cut S&P 500 Index annualized compound return.Trying to forecast which days or weeks will yield good or bad returns is a guessing game that can prove costly for investors.
  13. This analysis offers further insight into the potential consequences of both successful and failed market timing. The graph plots the S&P 500’s annualized compound return since 1970. The orange bar (far left) shows what a buy-and-hold investor would have earned in annualized return for the entire period. The bars to the right show the incremental return impact if an investor had missed the best or worst day, month, quarter, or longer sequence during the period. For example, the worst market day since 1970 occurred on October 19, 1987. An investor who avoided the worst day would have earned a 10.49% annualized return, but missing the best day would have reduced the return to 9.66%.If daily market returns are random, market timing is a flip of the coin. Investors who attempt to predict market drops are just as likely to avoid them as to miss out on strong return periods.
  14. Talking Points:This graph documents bull and bear market periods in the S&P 500 Index from January 1, 1926 through December 31, 2011. The market cycles are identified in hindsight using historical cumulative daily returns. All observations are performed after the fact. A bear market is identified in hindsight when the market experiences a negative daily return followed by a cumulative loss of at least 10%. The bear market ends at its low point, which is defined as the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. A bull market is defined by data points not considered part of a bear market.The rising trend lines in blue designate the bull markets occurring since 1926, and the falling trend lines in red document the bear markets. The bars that frame the trend lines help to describe the length and intensity of the gains and losses. The numbers above or below the bars indicate the cumulative return percentage of the bull or bear market. Keep in mind that this graph does not show total compounded returns or growth of wealth since 1926. Once the cycle is established in retrospect, the first day of that cycle resets the performance baseline to zero. Investors may draw a number of lessons from this graph. First, since 1926, bull markets in the S&P 500 Index have lasted longer than bear markets and delivered price gains that are disproportionately greater than the bear market losses. Second, fluctuating performance within each trend illustrates that volatility and uncertainty occur even within established market cycles: bull markets may have short-term dips, and bear markets may have short-term advances. The immediate trend is not readily apparent to market observers, and in fact, may become clear only in hindsight. This illustrates the difficulty of accurately predicting and timing market cycles. Finally, the graph suggests the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment approach that views market events and trends from a long-term perspective. Investors who react emotionally to short-term movements are at risk of making ill-timed decisions that compromise long-term performance.
  15. Talking Points:This graph documents bull and bear market periods in the S&P 500 Index from January 1926 through December 2011. The market cycles are identified in hindsight, applying the same methodology as the other slides in the “Bull and Bear Markets” series. The numbers above or below the bars indicate the duration (in months) and cumulative return percentage of the bull or bear market. Monthly index returns are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.
  16. Talking Points:This graph documents bull and bear market periods in the Russell 2000 Index from January 1979 through December 2011.  The market cycles are identified in hindsight, applying the same methodology as the other slides in the “Bull and Bear Markets” series. The numbers above or below the bars indicate the duration (in months) and cumulative return percentage of the bull or bear market. Monthly index returns are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.
  17. Talking Points:This graph documents bull and bear market periods in the MSCI EAFE Index from January 1970 through December 2011. The market cycles are identified in hindsight using historical cumulative monthly returns. These returns consider the reinvestment of dividends, net of foreign government withholding taxes. All monthly observations are performed after the fact. A bear market is identified in hindsight when the market experiences a negative monthly return followed by a cumulative loss of at least 10%. The bear market ends at its low point, which is defined as the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. A bull market is defined by data points not considered part of a bear market.The rising trend lines in blue designate the bull markets occurring since 1970, and the falling trend lines in red document the bear markets. The bars that frame the trend lines help to describe the length and intensity of the gains and losses. The numbers above or below the bars indicate the duration (in months) and cumulative return percentage of the bull or bear market. Keep in mind that this graph does not show total compounded returns or growth of wealth since 1970. Once the cycle is established in retrospect, the first month of that cycle resets the performance baseline to zero. Investors may draw a number of lessons from this graph. First, since 1970, bull markets in the MSCI EAFE Index have lasted longer than bear markets and delivered gains that are disproportionately greater than the bear market losses. Keep in mind, however, that this time series is relatively short.Second, fluctuating performance within each trend illustrates that volatility and uncertainty occur even within established market cycles: bull markets may have short-term dips, and bear markets may have short-term advances. The immediate trend is not readily apparent to market observers, and in fact, may become clear only in hindsight. This illustrates the difficulty of accurately predicting and timing market cycles. Finally, the graph suggests the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment approach that views market events and trends from a long-term perspective. Investors who react emotionally to short-term movements are at risk of making ill-timed decisions that compromise long-term performance.
  18. Talking Points:This graph documents bull and bear market periods in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index from January 1988 through December 2011. The market cycles are identified in hindsight, applying the same methodology as the other slides in the “Bull and Bear Markets” series. The numbers above or below the bars indicate the duration (in months) and cumulative return percentage of the bull or bear market. Monthly index returns include the reinvestment of gross dividends. The graph demonstrates the same principles as the previous data:In the data since 1988, which is a relatively short time series, bull markets in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index have lasted longer than bear markets and delivered gains that are disproportionately greater than the bear market losses. Index performance fluctuates, even within established market cycles.Investors who maintain a disciplined investment approach may avoid making ill-timed decisions amidst the market volatility.
  19. Talking Points:This graph shows that a few outperforming stocks may account for a disproportionately large share of the US market’s return in a given year. From 1926 to 2012, the US stock market, as measured by the CRSP 1-10 Index, provided a 9.6% compound average annual return. If the top-performing decile of stocks were excluded each year, the market’s return would drop to 6.3% annualized. Excluding the top quartile of performers each year would reduce the market’s average annual return to a negative 0.6%. Since it is impossible to reliably identify winners before the fact, the most prudent approach is to maintain broad diversification and consistent exposure within a particular asset class. This improves the likelihood that a portfolio will capture outperformance—wherever it may occur.