This document discusses trends in the digital landscape. It identifies two core drivers of the internet's growth: technology empowering people and Amara's law. It then provides 7 observations on current trends, including the need for context/filtering due to information overload, lack of integrity online, the underhyped potential of Facebook and overhyped status of Twitter. It recommends focusing on business value, respecting audiences, being flexible and daring to be different to build brands in this changing environment.

1. Where does the digital
landscape take us?
Björn Elmberg, Cybercom

2. Agenda
• 2 core drivers
What’s behind Internet’s ever growing significance
• 6 observations
Where are we now, what trends are emerging, what
can we expect from 2009/2010
• 4 recommendations
Some thoughts about the future

3. Two core drivers

4. ”Technology is shifting the power away from the
editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media
elite. Now, it’s the people who are in control”
Rupert Murdoch, Wired Magazine 2006

5. ”Technology is shifting the power away from the
editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media
elite. Now, it’s the people who are in control”
Rupert Murdoch, Wired Magazine 2006

6. Amaras law
Technology People

7. “If I had asked people what they
wanted, they would have said faster
horses”
Henry Ford (July 30, 1863 – April 7, 1947)
2009-11-09 7 e.g. name of the presenter

8. 2009-11-09 8 e.g. name of the presenter

9. “Nearly 40% of consumers said they
would buy a vehicle online [...] if that
capability existed.”
Cap Gemini, Cars Online 09/10
http://www.us.capgemini.com/DownloadLibrary/files/Capgemini_CarsOnline_1009.pdf
2009-11-09 9 e.g. name of the presenter

10. 7 observations

11. 1.
Information overflow generates the
need for context, structure and
filtering

12. The drivers behind improved context
• Search engines
– Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha
• Aggregators and filters
– Friendfeed, intelligent RSS readers, Tweetdeck
• Personalization
– When will aftonbladet.se become intelligent?

15. 2.
Integrity online – we are not acting
coherently

17. “You can make money
without doing evil.”
http://www.google.com/corporate/tenthings.html

19. • Gmail Stores, processes, and maintains all messages, Account
activity, All Gchat conversations, Clicks
• Google Toolbar All websites visited, Unique appl. ID, Sends 404s to Google
• Google Calendar Name, language, all events (date, participants, comments)
• YouTube User data, Videos uploaded, videos watched, Comments
• Google Maps
• Google Docs Number of logins, Actions taken, Storage usage, Clicks, All
collaborators, All text, All images, All changes
• Blogger
• Google Reader
• Google Wave
• Google Finance User’s stocks, Amount of shares, time bought, Bought at price
• Google Checkout Full legal name, Credit card number, expiration date, CVN
• Google Desktop
• Orkut Name, Gender, Age, Location, Occupation, Religion
• Picasa Photos, all clicks
• Google Health Doctors, Conditions, Prescriptions, Age, Sex, Race, Blood
type, Weight, Allergies, Procedures
• Google Voice
• and of course… Google Search

20. • Google-controlled web trackers are tracking
users on 92 of the net's top 100 sites and about
88 per cent of almost 400,000 other domains
(Analytics, AdSense, Doubleclick)
• 46 of the top 50 websites share data with their
affiliates
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/06/03/google_tracking_study/

21. 3.
”Facebook is underhyped”
http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html

22. www.compete.com 2009-11-08

23. The world s most used website

24. Facebook
• Average user has 120 friends on the site
• More than 100 million users log on to Facebook at
least once each day
• 6.7 billion people on the planet, 23.8 percent
(about 1.6 billion) have Internet access
• 8 percent regularly use Facebook.
• 92 percent of Internet users have yet to
discover it
www.internetworldstats.com
www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics

25. 4.
”Twitter is overhyped”
http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html

26. The Hype ratio
Site Swedish users Google-hits Hype-ratio
(Swedish)
Aftonbladet 3,8 miljoner (unika/v) 3,28 miljoner 0,86
Facebook 2,4 miljoner 12,3 miljoner 5,13
Bilddagboken 1,2 miljoner (unika/v) 1,95 miljoner 1,63
Youtube 3,2 miljoner (unika/v) 4,6 miljoner 1,44
Twitter 37 500 9,9 miljoner 264
http://www.digitalkommunikation.se 2009-08

27. ” Let's face it — Twitter is a fad. It has all the
attributes of a fad, including the one that people like
me don't get its appeal. It has risen quickly and it
will fall quickly. It's this year's Second Life”
Tom Davenport, April 9, 2009
http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/davenport/2009/04/is_twitter_for_serious_marketer.html

28. www.compete.com 2009-11-08

29. • 80% are followed by or follow at least one user. By comparison, only
60 to 65% of other online social networks' members had at least one
friend
• 36% of tweets mention a user in the form ‘@user
http://www.danah.org/papers/TweetTweetRetweet.pdf
• 51% of people with Twitter accounts don't use it once a month
http://www.businessinsider.com/51-of-twitter-members-use-the-site-less-than-once-a-
month-clip-2009-5
• Among Twitter users, the median number of lifetime tweets per user
is one
• The top 10% of Twitter users accounted for over 90% of tweets
http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/cs/2009/06/new_twitter_research_men_follo.html

30. Twitter is a broadcasting channel

31. 5.
Increased metric focus decrease
online brand building

32. Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the
trouble is I don’t know which half
John Wanamaker, 1838 – 1922

33. From display advertising to action-
driven advertising
• Search ads will represent 42 percent of all online
advertising spending in 2009, while display ads will
account for just 21 percent
• Internet advertising in Sweden is expected to drop during
2009, whereas Search Engine Marketing is expected to
increase with 12 percent
• Companies seek direct conversion rather than branding when
the marketing spend gets squeezed
http://www.emarketer.com 2009-06-17
http://www.irm-media.se/ 2009-06-17

34. • You optimize what you measure
• It is difficult to measure brand value
• Brand value is long-term, metrics are often short-
term
• Improved user experience can often drastically
improve brand attitudes

35. 6.
The risk aversive conformity
disease

36. How many music and appstores can you spot?

38. Opportunities and
recommendations

39. Information overflow generates the need for
context, structure and filtering
Integrity online – we are not acting coherently
Respect, help and listen to your
audience

40. 2009-11-09 40 e.g. name of the presenter

41. 2009-11-09 41 e.g. name of the presenter

42. 2009-11-09 42 e.g. name of the presenter

43. Facebook is underhyped
Twitter is overhyped
Be flexible

44. “It is not the strongest of the species that will
survive, or the most intelligent. It is the one
most adaptable to change”
Charles Darwin

45. The risk aversive conformity disease
Increased metric focus decrease online brand building
Dare to be different

46. 2009-11-09 46 e.g. name of the presenter

47. 2009-11-09 47 e.g. name of the presenter

48. Finally :
Focus on business value
and all else will follow

49. Reality check
• 38% of the Swedish population do not use Internet on a
daily basis
• 20% of the Swedish population never use the Internet
• 82% of the mobile phone users do not use mobile Internet
• 63% of the Internet users never read blogs
”Svenskarna och Internet 2009”, http://www.wii.se

50. Thank you
bjorn.elmberg@cybercom.com
+46-70-915 31 82
www.twitter.com/elmberg
www.slideshare.net/belm