Global warming is occurring due to greenhouse gas emissions. While some populations are growing wealthier and consuming more, resources are becoming more constrained. If current energy use patterns continue, CO2 levels will rise dangerously in the next 45 years. This will likely cause feedback loops and temperature increases beyond 2°C, with severe environmental consequences. Peak oil production has already occurred in some countries. Higher energy prices, carbon pricing schemes, new technologies and changing preferences will drive increased efficiency, clean energy adoption and reduced emissions. However, meeting technical needs to avoid runaway climate change will be challenging with more people consuming more with fewer resources.

1. What in the world is going on?Aaron FykeFounder and President

2. FrameworkHot – Global warming due to greenhouse gasesFlat – Everyone else is getting richerCrowded – And there are a lot more of us

3. Percent Job Losses in Recessions

4. Hot

6. Today’s CO2 ConcentrationAfter 45 More Years of current energy use patterns600500400300280260240CO2 ConcentrationCO2 [ppmv]2202001800 °CTemp. in F°Temp. in °C-8 °C Dan Miller – Climateplace.org0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age (yr BP)

7. Today’s CO2 ConcentrationAfter 45 More Years of current energy use patterns600500400300280260240CO2 ConcentrationCO2 [ppmv]2202001800 °CTemp. in F°Temp. in °C-8 °C Dan Miller – Climateplace.org0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age (yr BP)

8. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

9. Feedback Loops – Tipping PointsAt greater than 2°C average temperature increase, we risk unstoppable, runaway temperature increases:Polar Ice Caps Melting- reduced reflectionDrought, insect infestations and fires killing/burning biomassPermafrost methane thawing – Contains as much GHG as currently in atmosphereOcean methane thawing – Teratonnes of methane released

10. Flickr: DanielKHCFlatFlickr: Mark Austria

11. The “Poor” are Getting Richer300m Indian middle class becoming used to Western culture and consumptionChina car sales surpassed the US in December, 2008 – 872,900 vehicles sold/month52% of Brazil (100m+ citizens) now has a car, access to credit, and holds a middle class job

14. MTOe

15. CrowdedFlickr: B℮n

18. Resulting TrendsHigher Energy Prices and VolatilityPrice on CarbonChanging Consumer PreferenceIncreased Energy EfficiencyIncreased Use of Renewable Energy

19. Peak Oil – Hubbert’s PredictionFlickr: weatherjester

21. US Oil Production

22. World Oil Production

23. World Oil ProductionP2PPBefore Peak OilAfter Peak OilSupply IncreasesSupply DecreasesQQP1P1Demand IncreasesDemand IncreasesQ1Q2Q2Q1

24. Peak Oil - ActualsEx-OPEC and USSRUSA Peak – 1971Hubbert Predicted – 1965-1970Wikipedia

26. Increased Price of CarbonFlickr: davipt

27. Price on CarbonBaseline and Credit:Kyoto – Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)Allows Annex A countries to invest in projects that reduce emissions in developing countries as an alternative to more expensive emission reductions in their own countriesSets targets for emissions reduction for each countryRatified by all Annex A nations except the USUses principal of “additionality”Cap and Trade: Fix pollution, price floats European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)Waxman-Markey (US)Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (Australia)Carbon Tax: Fix price, pollution floats

28. Price on Carbon

29. Price on Carbonhttp://climateinteractive.org/

30. Changing Consumer Preference

31. 1 M Vehicles

32. 1 M Vehicles

33. 1 M VehiclesUS Gas Prices$ 2009

34. 1 M VehiclesUS Gas Prices$ 2009Total US Hybrid Sales

35. Cash for Clunkers, 2009Edmunds.com – 2009 and 2006 vehicle models

36. Increased Efficiency

37. GE Evolution LocomotiveHas given Erie, Pennsylvania a trade surplus with China, Mexico and Brazil10% less CO2 than standard locomotive

38. 10% less fuel resulting in a $2.5m savings over its life (locomotive costs $4m)Boeing 787 DreamlinerAnticipated to be 20% more fuel efficient than 767“one of the industry's most successful launches ever”“demand for the Boeing plane unprecedented.”

39. Smart Grid "Our expectation is that this network will be 100 or 1,000 times larger than the Internet. If you think about it, some homes have Internet access, but some don't. Everyone has electricity access--all of those homes could potentially be connected,”Marie Hattar, VP Marketing

40. Increased Use of Renewables

41. Increased Use of RenewablesSaul Griffith, Makani Power:Cannot be about “What is politically feasible”.Nor should it be constrained by “What is economically feasible”.If you want clean power for America (and the World), it must be about “What is Technically Necessary”

42. Courtesy: Saul Griffith

43. Courtesy: Saul Griffith

44. Courtesy: Saul Griffith

45. Courtesy: Saul Griffith

46. Courtesy: Saul Griffith

47. Courtesy: Saul Griffith

48. Courtesy: Saul Griffith

49. More PeopleConsuming MoreWith fewer resources

50. Energy prices will remain highTo avoid runaway climate change, carbon will be priced

51. Opportunities:Energy efficiencyAddressing customers needsClean energy

52. Opportunities:Energy efficiencyAddressing customers needsClean energy