What Disruptive Innovation Means for ABHE Schools Presented at Association for Biblical Higher Education (ABHE) National Conference in Orlando FL, February, 23, 2018.

1. What Disruptive Innovation
Means for ABHE Schools
Friday, February 20, 2018
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears

2. The Need 1: The Rise of Online Education
Allen, I. E., & Seaman, J. (2018). Grade Increase: Tracking Distance Education in the United States. ERIC. Retrieved from http://onlinelearningsurvey.com/reports/gradeincrease.pdf
ABHE Online
36.9% undergrad
62.4% graduate
(all US schools)

3. The Need 2: Consolidation & Christian Mega-universities
Liberty U
43%
Grand Canyon U
39%
All of CCCU
18%
Estimated Christian Higher Education Growth Since 2005
Total Growth:
175,808 students
Sources: Grand Canyon & Liberty U self-reporting, CCCU Enrollment Report.

4. The Need 3: Rapid Growth of Higher Education Globally
100 Million
Students
in 2000
263 Million
Students
in 2025
(84% of growth in
the developing world)
Sources Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572.
Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers,
(2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf
137 Million New Students in Developing Countries by 2025
4.9 billion middle class globally by 2030

5. -
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
1,800,000,000
2,000,000,000
1800 1900 1970 2000 2007 2025
Christian Membership by Region
West South
Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson
http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf

6. 1900 1970 2000 2007 2025
South 21% 59% 86% 91% 99%
West 79% 41% 14% 9% 1%
21%
59%
86%
91%
99%
79%
41%
14%
9%
1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Growth of Christianity by Region
Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson
http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf

7. The Need 3: The Rise of Non-Western Christianity

8. Is Education More Secular or Christian Globally?
Perry L. Glanzer, "Dispersing the Light: The Status of Christian Higher Education around the Globe," Christian Scholar's Review 43 (2013): 321-43.
Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf
It depends on how you frame the question

9. The Majority of Christian Education is Alternative Education
ACCREDITED EDUCATION
NONTRADITIONAL, BUT
ACCREDITABLE EDUCATION
(GROWING DRAMATICALLY)
Bible
Colleges
Christian
Liberal Arts
Colleges
Christian
Universities
Seminaries
Bible Institutes Ministry Experience
Professional Experience
Alternative Education Courses
Bible Studies
Sermons
Educational Discipleship Programs
Christian Radio,
TV, Websites,
Books & Apps
Small Groups
NONTRADITIONAL, NON-
ACCREDITABLE EDUCATION
PRIMARILY
PARACHURCH
PRIMARILY
CHURCH
Correspondence & Continuing Ed
Conferences

10. Industry Map: Supporting a Healthy Christian Tertiary Educational Ecosystem
ACCREDITED HIGHER
EDUCATION
NONTRADITIONAL, BUT
ACCREDITABLE EDUCATION
MOOCs & Open Ed
Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn, Open2study,
Open University, Udemy, Khan Academy, Duolingo
Alison, YouTube, iTunesU, Open Learn, OLI
Christian Mega Universities
Liberty, Grand Canyon
Christian Universities
CCCU, IAPCHE, Overseas Council
Paid Courseware
Pearson, Mcgraw-Hill, Lynda.com,
Skillshare, Pluralsight, Dream Degree
Acrobatiq, Cengage, CogBooks, Flat World
Bible Colleges
ABHE Schools, ICETE, ATS
Online Christian Universities
CCCU, TRACS, DEAC, IAPCHE, ICHE
Alternative Credit Providers
Straighterline, Saylor, Ed4Online
EdX, JumpCourse, Pearson, Sofia
UC Irvine Extension, Modern States
Christian Free & Open Courses
ThirdMill.org, ChristianUniversity.org, Harvestime.org, Global University Global Reach, Aqueductproject.org
Open Biola, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, TransformingtheChurch
OpenSeminary.com, BiblicalTraining.org, Coram Deo, Multiply Movement, Truthfortheworld.org
Commercial Christian Courseware
Right Now Media, Lumerit, Logos Mobile Ed,
Zondervan, BibleMesh.com, Ligonier Connect
Bible Institutes
10’s of thousands globally
Open Textbooks
saylor.org/books, openstax.org,
courses.candelalearning.com/catalog/lumen
collegeopentextbooks.org, textbookequity.org
open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/
Missions/Ministry Training
i.e. YWAM U Nations
Vocational Qualification Providers
>50% of global market,
10’s of thousands of Training Centers
Ministry & Professional Experience
Prior Learning Assessment
Christian Continuing Education
Insight.org, Lifepointemedia.com, Lifeway.com, Livingontheedge.org, Precept.org,
Sampsonresources.com, Sampson.ed.com, Walkthru.org, Answersingenesis.org,
Bsfinternational.org, Christiancounselingceu.com
Secular
Partners
Seminaries
ATS
TERTIARYEDUCATION
Home School College Credit
veritycollegeeducation.org,
creditsbeforecollege.com Unaccredited Ordination Training
Berean School, Lamp Seminary
Church & Ministry Micro-Campuses
Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights,
CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University
Secular Micro-campuses
Kepler, Minerva, Coursera Learning Hubs,
edX U.Lab, Khan Lab School,
Bridge International Academies

11. PCs
Mobile
Disruptive Innovation Theory
Mainframes
10 x
More
Users
1/10th
Cost

12. 10 million+ students
at $1,000/student
Radically Affordable
Mobile Education
The Need for Disruptive Innovation
Traditional
Christian
Higher
Education
(A few million students
At $10,000/student)
10 x
More
Users
1/10th
Cost
Radically Affordable
Blended Education
100 million+ students
at $50/student

13. Modular Universities =
Lego Cities
Monolithic Bundled Degrees Today
Unbundled Education =
Lego Blocks
Modular Degrees
& Credentials =
Lego KitsInteroperable
Standards
Source: http://www.christenseninstitute.org/unlocking-stackable-global-credentials/
http://www.christenseninstitute.org/a-standards-strategy-for-stackable-global-credentials/

14. Unbundling & Rebundling Strategy Getting Indigenous
Theological Education to work with Accreditation
Industry
Certifications
Top-Up Degrees
(City Vision, etc)
University
Courses
Books & Paid
Courseware
1.Christian Courseware, MOOCs,
Apps & Open Educational Resources
Internships &
Missions Trips
Alternative
Ed Providers
Vocational
Qualifications
(GC4)
4. Uncredentialed
Local Coaches
3. Christian Worldview
Program Designers
• Course market becomes more like book and software markets to reduce costs & improve quality
• Christian courses become more modular and less interdependent where possible
• University becomes system integrator of content and tech platforms.
2. Credentialed
Online Faculty
Ordination
Vertically
Integrated
University
Virtually Integrated
University
Transformation is a core
competency of Missions Agencies
Horizontally Integrated Rebundled University
Unbundled
Christian Programs
Faculty role is unbundled into
4 specialized positions
Access to
Opportunity
(branding, licensing
& quality assurance)
Transformative
Experience
(primarily affective)
Metacognition
& Skills
(psychomotor &
high-level cognitive)
Knowledge &
Content
(low-level cognitive)
PartnershipsDEGREE
Church & Ministry
Microcampuses
Small
Groups
Mentoring

15. The Opportunity: 25 Million Students in Accredited
Christian Degree Programs By 2030 (400% growth)
Campus
5-10 million
Bachelor’s
5-20 million
Alternative Credit
10-50 million
Courseware
100’s of millions
• College Years 1-3
• Average Global Cost: $100/year
• Building on Christian and secular courseware
• Microcampus, online and mobile delivery
• Global Christian College Credit Consortium
• Free:
• Bible & Christian Christian Integration Courses
• “Secular” courseware in Christian programs
• Third Millennium, Christian University, etc.
• Average Global Cost: $1,000/year
• Full range of university degrees
• Online or microcampus delivery
• City Vision University’s $5,000 Bachelor’s
• Christian Subscription Services
• Radio/TV
• Christian Use of “Secular” platforms
• Bible App & other Christian platforms
• Transformational campus community
• Average Global Cost: $2,000/year
• Primary growth will be microcampuses
• Microcampus partnerships
Christian Digital Ecosystem (Billions)
Target Market
84% of HE growth in developing countries
4.9 billion middle class by 2030
• The 5,000
• The 120
• The 12
• The 3

17. Global Christian College Credit Consortium (GC4)
Path to a $5,000 degree
Bachelor’s Degree
City Vision University Business, Addiction Studies, Missions,
Nonprofit Management, Christian Ministry or other Institution
GC4 Level 5
Current Partners: Vision International Ministry or Qualifi Business
GC4 Level 4
Current Partners: Vision International, Saylor Academy, Third
Millennium, YWAM University of the Nations Online SBS
GC4 Level 3
Current Partners: Vision International, Saylor Academy, Trinity
Education
Level 3
Freshman
Level 4
Sophomore
$3,500
$100 +
partner tuition
$100 +
partner tuition
$100 +
partner tuition
City Vision
DEAC US Accredited
University
GC4 (in TechMission)
as Qualifi Qualification
Ofqual UK Accredited
University
Degree
(1 year)
Level 5
Junior
www.globalchristiancollege.org

18. Strategy Outline for Typical ABHE School
Campus
Degrees
Online Degrees
Microcampus
Partnerships
Alternative Credit
Certificates
& Micro-bachelors
MOOCs & Non-Credit Courses
• Tools: CAEL, ACE Credit, ABHE Exams,
Bible AP test, ABHE PLA standards, Articulation
Agreements, GC4
• Strategy: Provide credit for your MOOCs,
Develop degree completion partnerships with
Third Millennium, Christian University, etc.
• Tools: Open EdX, Udemy, Teachable
• Strategy: develop high visibility courses to
create start of marketing funnel
• Tools (LMS/SIS): Moodle, Canvas, Populi
• Strategy: develop microcampus program and
partnerships
• Tools: The Church App
• Strategy: Maximize reach & visibility
Books, Website, Radio/Podcasts & Sermon Apps
• The 5,000
• The 120
• The 12
• The 3

19. Biola x
Education
Lay the foundation in skills and Christian
worldview you need to become a
transformative teacher.
X
Trinity Education
Social Entrepreneurship
Learn how to transform the world
through social enterprises based in a
Christian worldview.
City Vision x
Business Administration
Get real-world experience from a biblical
perspective to succeed as a Christian in
business.
ORUx
Ministry & Leadership
Learn to lead others in transforming live
in Jesus name and the power of the Ho
Spirit.
Third Millennium
Old Testament Survey
Accredited Through GC4 Accredited Through GC4
ChristianUniversity.org
Church Leadership
Free, Accredited Through GC4 Free
Biola x
Christian Worldview
$40
BibleMesh
Greek
$40
Proof of Concept Mockup
Imagining
the Future:
Christian
MOOCs

20. Imagining the Future: Accredited Mobile Courses to Millions
Courses
Global Christian
College Credit
Consortium (GC4)
Or Others
The Bible App Quality Mobile Courses
+
Accreditation
+

21. www.cheia.org

22. Appendix

23. We can’t repeat the mistakes of the
past by expecting the majority world
to wear the “suits” of Western
accreditation, but there still must be
appropriate standards and signals
needed.
Source: Wikipedia Article on Assimilation of Native Americans
Higher Education vs. Tertiary Education vs. Vocational Education

25. Dead Capital
$9.3 trillion
400 million in India with
No Identification
Undocumented
Alternative
Education
Trillions of $ of lost value?
Why Now? Technology Is Enabling Centralized Record Keeping
Needed to Document Alternative Education

26. Why Now? What’s driving this opportunity?
1. Rise of the global South
◦ Need new educational system and structures designed around the needs of the majority
world
2. Increase in bi-vocational pastors globally
◦ Increased importance of government recognition of education credentials in second
vocation
3. Growth of accreditation systems for vocational qualifications
◦ Growth in globally transferable priced affordably for the masses in the majority world
◦ 150 countries around the world now have national qualifications frameworks or NQFs
4. Growth of unbundled education and accreditation
◦ Growth of MOOCs, mobile apps and open education
◦ Increased opportunity for combining national education and transnational education into
globally recognized credentials
◦ See my Clayton Christensen Institute article (Part 1, Part 2) & accreditation reform
bibliography
Source: http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20170328000916417

27. Policy Recommendations for Majority World Accreditation
1. Revise Faculty Requirements for Accreditation. Only require that faculty have the same level of education that
they are teaching (not one level above). “See one. Do one. Teach one.”
◦ ABHE, ICETE
2. Government Recognized Transnational Accreditation. Develop an international network of radically affordable
accredited vocational education institutions that can delegate their accreditation to institutions within other countries
and top up degree universities.
◦ GC4, TOPIC
3. Majority world pricing models. Provide accreditation pricing on a per student basis with minimal up front cost to
accommodate capital-poor institutions.
◦ ABHE, ICETE, GC4, TOPIC
4. Indigenous Leadership Development. Develop radically affordable accredited programs to train majority world
leaders in online and blended education.
◦ BGU, City Vision, Overseas Council
5. Christian MOOCs & Courseware. Develop accredited global courseware platforms for online and blended
education translated and culturally contextualized for the majority world.
◦ Imagination Summit
6. Democratize Instruction. Use online/remote faculty and courseware to enable wider base of local coaches/tutors
with limited training to teach and contextualize (as is widely done with Christian small group curriculum with DVDs
and RightNowMedia.com-Netflix of small groups)
◦ BGU, City Vision, Overseas Council
7. Articulation Agreement Consortium. Develop a Christian consortium to enable articulation agreements to happen
on a many-to-many basis rather than one-to-one (possibly with tiers). Similar to CASE.
◦ ABHE, ICETE building an interface of standards to groups like TOPIC

28. Summary of Key Requirements for GC4 Accreditation
1. Requires centralized system for transcript information
◦ Preferred to have a centralized system for all grading & assessments
unless controls are in place to standardized quality of assessments
◦ Modules need to be mapped into standards for credit hours
2. Instructors doing grading need to have completed the program
they are teaching or have a Bachelor’s or above
◦ In locations without credentialed faculty can use online grading
◦ Need to provide letter validating prior learning for faculty

29. Unbundled Christian Educational Ecosystem
Accredited Degree Pathways
Any Accredited Institution Accepting Alternative Credit: City Vision, Secular (Thomas Edison, Excelsior), etc.
Alternative Credit MechanismsGC4, ICHE, GlobalAccreditation.com, ACE Credit, Vocational Qualifications, Standardized Tests, PLA, Articulation Agreements
See: Christenson Institute Articles (part 1, part 2)
Church & Ministry Micro-campuses & Study CentersUnaccredited Christian Models: CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University
Accredited Christian Models: Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights, etc.
Other Faith Based Models: Jesuit Worldwide Learning, LDS Pathway
Secular Models: Kepler, Minerva, Coursara Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, Khan Lab School, Bridge International, African Virtual University, Knod, African Leadership
University, One University, and Akilah Institute.
Courseware & DistributionChristian Free: ThirdMill.org, ChristianUniversity.org, Harvestime.org, BiblicalTraining.org, Open Biola, Aqueductproject.org, TransformingTheChurch.org, Covenant
Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, Global Reach, Coram Deo, Truthfortheworld, Open Church
Christian For Fee/Commercial: BibleMesh.com, Right Now Media, Lumerit, Logos Mobile Ed, Zondervan, Ligonier Connect
“Secular” Courseware: Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn, Open2study, Open University, Udemy, Khan Academy, Duolingo, Alison, Open Learn, OLI, Lynda
Digital Distribution: Apps, Web/LMS, MOOC platform, Bible App, YouTube, iTunes, digital devices, print, church & ministry partnerships, corporate partnerships
Delivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only
Bible Schools
Christian
Liberal Arts
Colleges
Christian
Universities
Seminaries
Bundled
Traditional Consultants/System Integrators/Solution Providers: Nonprofit (CaCHE); Commercial: (BibleMesh.com, Lumerit)
Students (2016): 5 million
Projected Annual Growth: -5% to +5%
Non-Credit Students (2016): 1 million For Credit Students (2016): 10,000
Projected Annual Growth: 50% to 1,000%
Dominant
Business
Model:
For Fee
Services
(need seed
funding)
$50/yr to
$5,000/yr
Dominant
Business
Models:
Freemium
or Donor-
Based
Products
What we can influence

30. What is the Global Christian College Credit Consortium (GC4)
 Global Christian College Credit Consortium (GC4) is work area of
CHIEA to provide course level accreditation to ministry schools
◦ We are doing this under Qualifi, which offers accreditation under the
vocational frameworks structure of Ofqual in the UK. Level 3, 4 & 5
certificates/diplomas may be recognized in many commonwealth countries,
and are considered accredited for transfer credit evaluation.
◦ May also develop multilateral alliance of Christian articulation agreements
similar to CASE
◦ GC4 legally resides as a program of the Christian nonprofit TechMission
◦ Have initial approvals, but still in pilot stage
 www.globalchristiancollege.org
Theoretical Framework: Video, my Clayton Christensen Institute blog post (Part 1, Part 2)