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Week 8 macrotheories presentation final

- The document discusses various theories related to the effects of mass media from the 1920s to the present. It covers powerful effects theories from the 1920s, limited effects theories from the 1960s, and moderate effects theories from the 1970s. - More recent research discussed includes studies on the influence of TV media tone and visibility on party choice in the 2007 Danish election, how opinion leaders differ from others in their media use, and uses and gratifications theory. - The document also contains case studies on media use during Singapore's 2011 general election, including findings that television and newspapers were most widely used and that online political blogs saw increased readership. It examines agenda setting and the higher trust in traditional vs new media sources.

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mass media Effects theories   2012 1920s POWERFUL EFFECTS 1984 Ball-Rokeach, Rokeach and Grube The Great American Values Test LIMITED EFFECTS 1960 Klapper’s Effects of Mass Communication MODERATE EFFECTS 1973 Noelle-Neumann’s Spiral of Silence BULLET THEORY 1927 Lasswell’s Propaganda techniques in the World War
•  2007 National election campaign in Denmark •  Visibility of and tone used by TV media toward parties have an influence on party choice •  Effects of direct exposure significant for undecided voters and not decided voters macrotheories of public opinion Combined method approach Opinion leaders Uses and Gratifications Studying Mass media Hopmann, Vliegenthart, De Vreese and Albæk (2010)
•  Informed opinion leaders.. –  spent one more hour obtaining information from media channels –  Spent more time on newspapers –  Had higher levels of selectivity for information •  Eg of opinion leaders in society: doctors macrotheories of public opinion Combined method approach Opinion leaders read How much you Trepte and Scherer (2010) Uses and Gratifications
•  Useful for defining why people use the media –  Content that satisfies social (interaction) and psychological needs (need for learning) •  Applied to new media technologies to understand popularity of devices •  Qualitative research will yield richer data (Ruggiero,2000) macrotheories of public opinion Opinion leaders Explaining Media useUses and Gratifications Combined method approach
•  behavior schemas work better than self schemas in disseminating health messages •  Eg: if you classify yourself as pragmatic- conceptual oriented self-schema, emphasis on benefits of an advocated action will appeal more to you •  Great potential in online marketing macrotheories of public opinion PerceptionSelective Pease, Brannon and Pilling (2006)
macrotheories of public opinion Case study: Which are the most popular mediums used in Sg during GE2011?
•  Trust is higher for traditional media sources macrotheories of public opinion Singapore GE2011 Media Use Institute of Policy Studies (2011) 3.45   3.44   2.78   2.76   2.51   2.28   0   1   2   3   4   5   Trust  in  media  sources   TV  news   Newspaper   Party  brochures   Blogs   Facebook   TwiDer  
macrotheories of public opinion Singapore GE2011 Media Use Institute of Policy Studies (2011) •  90% use traditional media (newspapers and television) as a source of information •  41.1% of people read election news online •  21% reading online political blogs up from 13% in 2010 IPS survey
macrotheories of public opinion Singapore GE2011 Agenda Setting Wu and Soon (2011) •  Overall agenda setting in Singapore GE 2011 occurs in both directions •  Twitter is seen as less reflective of the other media types (content wise) •  Results support increase use and adoption of Facebook and Twitter as a prominent channel of communication and civic engagement
macrotheories of public opinion Social Control Perpetuating Cultivation
macrotheories of public opinion Cultivation effects •  Institutional process analysis –  Examines the production, management and distribution of media messages •  Message system analysis –  Examines the content that makes up the television programme such as media portrayals •  Cultivation analysis –  The relationship between exposure to television and people’s beliefs, attitudes and knowledge, awareness of issues. –  Desensitization to violence
•  1969-1985: status quo perpetuated women are less likely to be portrayed than men •  1990s: increased portrayals but occupational roles still reflected predominant stereotypes of the type of jobs women should hold, more female housewives than law enforcers •  2000s: cultivation effects showed less stereotypical sexroles. macrotheories of public opinion Meta-analysis of sex roles Cultivation Shanahan, Signorielli, & Morgan (2008) 1969 1990 2000
macrotheories of public opinion Mainstreaming •  dominant sets of attitudes, beliefs, values and practices exist within a culture are adopted by heavy viewers and override their own pre- existing perspectives and attitudes •  Viewing popular medical drama grey’s anatomy is associated with perceptions of doctors’ courageousness mediated by high credibility ratings for the television programme
macrotheories of public opinion Resonance •  Resonance: the situation where events in real life support the distorted image of reality shown on television (Bryant & Thompson, 2002) •  Resonance mediates r/s between identification and parasocial interaction with TV program’s protagonist and attitudes toward smoking (Lauzen & Dozier, 2003) •  Resonance effect more significant than mainstreaming (Nan, 2010)
macrotheories of public opinion Cultivation a critique •  Inconsistencies with operationalization of the most important variable: Television exposure –  Take total viewing x 5 (Heath & Petraitis 1987) –  Total viewing for a day on average (Shrum & Bishak 2001) –  Volume of viewing per day plus frequency of viewing (Custers & Bulck, 2011) –  Implications for external and internal validity not addressed •  users of new media have greater power to select content they consume •  mainstream views difficult to convey through the new media due to fragmented attention on the internet (less social control)
•  Highly participatory environments such as MMORPG strengthens cultivation effects because of the interactive and participatory nature of the internet •  Call for new theories, methods to measure and quantify macro-level effects on the Internet platform •  Extend theory beyond social-psychological effects macrotheories of public opinion Future take on Cultivation Metzger (2009)
Baseline Understanding macrotheories of public opinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obtrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO MACRO Willingness to Express Own Opinion IVs Main DV Individual Behavioural Outcome Aggregate Effects across Society Theorized Extrapolation Cultural Factors
Baseline Understanding macrotheories of public opinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obtrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO Media Portrayal Immediate Social Environment MACRO Incongruent? Perceptions of Public Opinion on issue X Own opinion on issue X Silence Public Opinion Climate Spiraling Mechanism explains PO formation IVs Theorized Extrapolation Quasi- statistical sense
Objectives Today •  Challenge old conventions of SoS research •  New measure of the IV and the DV •  Question the implicit assumption of the spiraling mechanism –  How does Individual Silence lead to Aggregate Silence in the formation of public opinion? •  Address concerns for cross-cultural comparisons •  Introduce new variable that would improve SoS theory •  Attitude Certainty •  Propose framework for future SoS research macrotheories of public opinion Anything in italics and in the body text is the presenter’s own interpretation
Reexamining Core Variables macrotheories of public opinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obtrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO MACRO Willingness to Express Own Opinion IVs Main DV Individual Behavioural Outcome Aggregate Effects across Society Theorized Extrapolation ? ? ? ? Cultural Factors
Reexamining Core Variables macrotheories of public opinion
Development of a New FSI Scale •  Fear of Social Isolation (FSI) as a replacement for fear of isolation •  To address the inconsistencies with IV measurement of the fear of isolation before this •  Previous measures of the IV plagued with problems of interpretation •  E.g. Scheufele et al. (2001), Ho & McLeod (2008) used a scale that was clearly bidimensional, including an “argumentativeness factor” •  New FSI Scale is unidimensional macrotheories of public opinion Hayes et al.,Communication Research, 2011
Development of a New FSI Scale macrotheories of public opinion •  I worry about being isolated if people disagree with me •  I don’t worry about other people avoiding me •  I avoid telling other people what I think when I think there is a risk they’ll avoid me •  I enjoy avoiding arguments •  Arguing over controversial issues improves my intelligence •  I enjoy a good argument over a controversial issue •  I try to avoid getting into arguments Argumentativeness Hayes et al.,Communication Research, 2011
•  It is scary to think about not being invited to social gatherings by people I know •  One of the worst things that could happen to me is to be excluded by people I know •  It would bother me if no one wanted to be around me •  I dislike feeling left out of social functions, parties, or other social gatherings •  It is important to me to fit into the group I am with
Reexamine the Core DV macrotheories of public opinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obstrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO MACRO Willingness to Express Own Opinion IVs Main DV Individual Behavioural Outcome Aggregate Effects across Society Theorized Extrapolation ? ? ? Cultural Factors
Willingness to Self-Censor (WTSC) •  Shown by Hayes et al. (2005, 2010) to be a viable construct in the analysis of SoS •  Reliable •  Valid •  Statistically distinct from competing measures •  Recently used in a nine-country comparative analysis that confirmed SoS predictions (Matthes et al., 2010) •  Positive and negative frame •  WTSC is more intuitively aligned with the concept of silence •  WTEO? Have to think of the concept in reverse –  Lack of willingness to express opinions that leads to silence macrotheories of public opinion Hayes et al., IJPOR, 2005, Communication Methods and Measures, 2010 Herbert’s   interpret aGon  
Questioning the Status Quo macrotheories of public opinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obstrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO MACRO Willingness to Express Own Opinion IVs Main DV Individual Behavioural Outcome Aggregate Effects across Society Theorized Extrapolation ? ? ? Cultural Factors
Extensive Cultural Comparisons •  Previous research: two countries in dichotomous collectivistic-individualistic comparison •  Willnat, Lee & Detember (2002) – Singapore only as collectivistic exemplar •  Lee et al. (2004) – Singapore vs. United States •  Huang (2005) – Taiwan vs. US •  Now: 8-9 countries cross-analyzed macrotheories of public opinion
•  Cultural dimensions analyzed in studies •  Social Independence/Interdependence (x-axis) –  Individualism/Collectivism •  Governing disposition (y-axis) –  Full democracy/Flawed Democracy/Hybrid Regime/ Authoritarian Regime •  IV: Hayes et al. (2011) measure of FSI •  DV: Hayes et al. (2005, 2010) measure of WTSC macrotheories of public opinion Matthes et al., ICA, 2010 Testing Spiral of Silence Theory in Nine Countries: An Individual Differences Perspective
macrotheories of public opinion Not to scale, only for relative comparison Higher democracy index Lower democracy index More Individualistic More Collectivistic Germany USA UKFrance South Korea Russia China Chile Mexico (not significant) CorrelaGonal  size  between   WTSC  and  FSI  (β)  was  not     significantly  associated  with  the   level  of  individualism  or  the   level  of  democracy  as  cultural   dimensions  -­‐  so?   Testing Spiral of Silence Theory in Nine Countries: An Individual Differences Perspective
The  posi)ve  correla)on  between  FSI  and  WTSC  in  eight   of  the  nine  countries  we  examined  hints  to  the  almost   universal  nature  of  spiral  of  silence  theory  as  originally   theorized  by  Noelle-­‐Neumann  (1974).  By  the  same  token,   the  size  of  these  correla)ons  did  not  depend  on  a   country’s  democracy  index  or  level  of  individualism.  In   other  words,  spiral  of  silence  processes  can  be  assumed   to  occur  in  many  countries  and  across  cultures.  
macrotheories of public opinion Not to scale, only for relative comparison Higher democracy index Lower democracy index More Individualistic More Collectivistic Germany USA UKFrance South Korea China Chile Suggests  Cultural  Boundary   condiGon  on  SoS  processes   Stimulating the quasi-statistical organ: FSI motivates the quest for knowledge of the opinion climate Hayes et al.,Communication Research, 2011
Questioning the Status Quo macrotheories of public opinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obstrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO MACRO Willingness to Express Own Opinion IVs Main DV Individual Behavioural Outcome Aggregate Effects across Society Theorized Extrapolation ? Cultural Factors
Speaking about “Boundaries” or “Parameters” within which SoS might apply…
•  Unit of Analysis: Society (system in which groups interact) •  Vs. unit of analysis in SoS surveys: Individual •  How does Individual Silence translate to Aggregate Silence in the formation of public opinion? macrotheories of public opinion Aggregate Opinion Formation? Sum Collective Dynamics of the SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring
macrotheories of public opinion Sohn & Geidner, ICA, 2010 Collective Dynamics of the SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring
•  Attacks implicit assumption: if individual-level conditions are met, the spiraling process is likely to occur •  However, individuals in the real world interact in almost random manner •  Formation of opinion climate cannot be inferred directly from the sum of individual traits at current-time survey snapshots macrotheories of public opinion Aggregate Opinion Formation? Sum Sohn & Geidner, ICA, 2010 Collective Dynamics of the SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring
•  Society as a System of social interdependence •  cannot be measured with surveys or experiments because •  the consequences of multiple- agent interactions over time fail to match what might be expected, simplistically, of an individual agent macrotheories of public opinion Sohn & Geidner, ICA, 2010 Collective Dynamics of the SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring
Collective Dynamics of the SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring •  Also, regression tests in surveys assume collective human behavior can be linearly modeled (OLS estimation) •  Complexity and nonlinear dynamics research from other disciplines say otherwise – Macro-level outcomes can be astonishingly complex and unpredictable macrotheories of public opinion Sohn & Geidner, ICA, 2010
•  Used computer simulation method called Agent-based modeling (ABM) •  Examined the generative mechanism through which individuals’ local social interactions (e.g. opinion sampling and monitoring) translate into macro-level outcomes macrotheories of public opinion Sohn & Geidner, ICA, 2010 Collective Dynamics of the SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring
•  Computational Stats: Using behavioral rules established in surveys and experiments to come up with a derivative formula to model Spiral of Silence macrotheories of public opinion Sohn & Geidner, ICA, 2010 Collective Dynamics of the SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring
•  Findings: tested for and confirmed one societal-level boundary condition •  Observation range of an individual •  Large scale SoS occurs only when a critical mass of individuals having larger observation ranges is reached •  So that large cascades of effects can occur throughout society •  “Domino effect” •  Implication: Fragmentation in the media environment could lead to fewer individuals having similar views of the opinion climate •  Which could make the Spiral of Silence less likely macrotheories of public opinion Sohn & Geidner, ICA, 2010 Collective Dynamics of the SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring
Reinforcing Spirals: The Mutual Influence of Media Selectivity and Media Effects and Their Impact on Individual Behavior and Social Identity •  Combines Cultivation and SoS •  Hypothesized that attitudinal or behavioral outcomes of media use can be expected to influence selection of and attention to media content •  Process can be conceptualized in terms of mutually reinforcing spirals akin to positive feedback loops •  Reinforcing spirals perspective highlights the need for longitudinal modeling of mutually influencing media selection and effects processes •  And be applied to Cultivation research macrotheories of public opinion Slater, Communication Theory, 2007
Reinforcing Spirals: The Mutual Influence of Media Selectivity and Media Effects and Their Impact on Individual Behavior and Social Identity •  Spirals perspective: influence of group communicative and media influences •  Media as corollary role •  Cultivation: larger society influences •  Media as Predictor IV •  Study also suggests that larger society influences (as dictated by cultivation) may be a key factor in countering the acceleration of reinforcing spirals •  Tension and competition between group perspectives (reinforcing spirals) and those of larger society •  E.g. Tension between sociopolitical blog The Online Citizen vs. traditional public domains macrotheories of public opinion Slater, Communication Theory, 2007
macrotheories of public opinion Slater, Communication Theory, 2007
Selective Posting: Willingness to Post a Message Online •  Experiment •  Employed real situation instead of hypotheticals macrotheories of public opinion Yun & Park, Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 2011
Selective Posting: Willingness to Post a Message Online •  2x2 Factorial Design (Message Congruence X Anonymity) •  Main DV: Willingness to speak out •  Actual behavioral measure operationalized by message posting on online forum A C B D Anonymous Not Anonymous Congruent Incongruent macrotheories of public opinion Yun & Park, Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 2011
Selective Posting: Willingness to Post a Message Online •  Significant main effect of Message Congruence •  Participants in a congruent condition were twice more willing to post a message •  Result supported the SOS explanation that majority opinion holders were more willing to post a message •  No significant main effect of Anonymity •  Registration (not anonymous) vs no-registration (anonymous) condition may not lead to saliently perceived differences among the participants macrotheories of public opinion Yun & Park, Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 2011
Selective Posting: Willingness to Post a Message Online •  Significant interaction between pre- experimental issue position and message congruence •  Reinforcement effects and selective perception •  Participants exposed to incongruent messages strengthened their existing issue positions •  Whereas participants who were exposed to congruent messages did not significantly strengthen their issue position •  Links to yet another study involving attitude certainty macrotheories of public opinion Yun & Park, Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 2011
Selective Posting: Willingness to Post a Message Online •  Selective posting of congruent messages on online forums will impose a serious threat to the ideal of an open market place of ideas on the Internet •  Paper tries to refute Benkler, Castells (haha) •  Original SoS proposition needs to be modified to meet the current multichannel media environment •  And take into account of influences from social media macrotheories of public opinion Yun & Park, Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 2011
Questioning the Status Quo macrotheories of public opinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obstrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO MACRO Willingness to Express Own Opinion IVs Main DV Individual Behavioural Outcome Aggregate Effects across Society Theorized Extrapolation ? Cultural Factors
•  Opinion climate only determines opinion expression when individuals hold their attitudes with low or moderate attitude certainty •  For individuals with high attitude certainty, no SoS effect •  SoS only for some but not all members of public macrotheories of public opinion Matthes et al., Communication Research, 2010 A Spiral of Silence for Some: Attitude Certainty and the Expression of Political Minority Opinions
A Spiral of Silence for Some: Attitude Certainty and the Expression of Political Minority Opinions •  Underlying theoretical basis: Attitude certainty is an indicator of attitude strength •  Definition: People hold their attitudes with varying levels of conviction/assurance •  Previous SoS research espoused “Hardcore individuals” •  Current study advocated attitude certainty as a better way of distinguishing btw Hardcore and non- Hardcore individuals macrotheories of public opinion Matthes et al., Communication Research, 2010
A Spiral of Silence for Some: Attitude Certainty and the Expression of Political Minority Opinions macrotheories of public opinion Matthes et al., Communication Research, 2010 Perceive   self  as   minority   Perceive   self  as   majority   ModeraGon  Effect   of  High  Atude   Certainty  
Conclusion macrotheories of public opinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obstrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO MACRO Willingness to Express Own Opinion IVs Main DV Individual Behavioural Outcome Aggregate Effects across Society Theorized Extrapolation Cultural Factors
Future Directions of SoS? macrotheories of public opinion Socio- demographics Hayes’ 5-item FSI Measure Issue Obstrusiveness *Communication Apprehension, Attitude Certainty as moderator… Hayes’ Willingness to Self-censor Aggregate Effects across Society Cultural Factors *Aggregation of social media = Habermasian Public Sphere? Use ABM or viable computational methods if need to extrapolate to aggregation Media Portrayal Immediate Social Environment, interpersonal group referents *Reinforcing Spirals: Media Selectivity positive feedback loop *Selective Posting on CMC platforms and social media *Group referents on social media *new additions to SoS theoretical framework *ABM?  
What might be the future of SoS? •  Advance beyond influence of referent groups or traditional media portrayals •  Consider massively communicative networked systems –  What differentiates social media? •  Asynchronous communication •  User-generated content (cultivation effects?) •  Yet restrict effects to within “filter bubbles” –  proximately socialized places online = locally socialized environments offline •  Distinct virtual third places •  The Online Citizen can be perceived as Coffee House of Talkcock A •  Temasek Review Emeritus can be Talkcock Pub B •  Yahoo Singapore chat can be hangout place C •  Limit generalizability to within the same unit of analysis •  Less contention about cross-cultural applicability •  Caveat: Spiral of Silence may not be well understood in authoritarian regimes •  Democracies – pretty much ok to employ macrotheories of public opinion
&Answers Questions
&Answers Questions Name the two contingent conditions for SoS to occur
Define Resonance and give 1 research example &Answers Questions
•  Taking the case of Singaporean’s reaction to public official’s sexual conduct as reported in the Straits Times. Which media approach would you use to investigate the polarised opinion? •  Cultivation or spiral of silence? Explain. macrotheories of public opinion Discussion
•  Do you agree that Singapore journalists’ orientations, attitudes and beliefs in Singapore reflect that of the population? – Issue: $1.1 billion of public’s money spent on new buses macrotheories of public opinion Discussion
•  How does SoS apply to social media platforms? •  Critique the idea of treating the aggregate of social media as equivalent to a Habermasian public sphere –  May not ideal, but approaching ideal –  Remember key tenets: informed judgments, best argument wins macrotheories of public opinion Discussion
Singapore: Fear of social isolation or Fear of authoritarian reprisal/legal lawsuits? macrotheories of public opinion Discussion
macrotheories of public opinion
•  Social filtering •  TED: Ethan Zuckerman •  Algorithmic filtering •  TED: Eli Pariser •  Online “filter bubbles” a threat to democracy, and undermines Public Sphere macrotheories of public opinion “…one  day  I  no)ced  that  the   conserva)ves  had  disappeared   from  my  Facebook  feed…”   Discussion
macrotheories of public opinion THANK

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Week 8 macrotheories presentation final

  • 2.
    mass media Effects theories   2012 1920s POWERFUL EFFECTS 1984 Ball-Rokeach, Rokeach and Grube The Great American Values Test LIMITED EFFECTS 1960 Klapper’s Effects of Mass Communication MODERATE EFFECTS 1973 Noelle-Neumann’s Spiral of Silence BULLET THEORY 1927 Lasswell’s Propaganda techniques in the World War
  • 3.
    •  2007 Nationalelection campaign in Denmark •  Visibility of and tone used by TV media toward parties have an influence on party choice •  Effects of direct exposure significant for undecided voters and not decided voters macrotheories of public opinion Combined method approach Opinion leaders Uses and Gratifications Studying Mass media Hopmann, Vliegenthart, De Vreese and Albæk (2010)
  • 4.
    •  Informed opinionleaders.. –  spent one more hour obtaining information from media channels –  Spent more time on newspapers –  Had higher levels of selectivity for information •  Eg of opinion leaders in society: doctors macrotheories of public opinion Combined method approach Opinion leaders read How much you Trepte and Scherer (2010) Uses and Gratifications
  • 5.
    •  Useful fordefining why people use the media –  Content that satisfies social (interaction) and psychological needs (need for learning) •  Applied to new media technologies to understand popularity of devices •  Qualitative research will yield richer data (Ruggiero,2000) macrotheories of public opinion Opinion leaders Explaining Media useUses and Gratifications Combined method approach
  • 6.
    •  behavior schemaswork better than self schemas in disseminating health messages •  Eg: if you classify yourself as pragmatic- conceptual oriented self-schema, emphasis on benefits of an advocated action will appeal more to you •  Great potential in online marketing macrotheories of public opinion PerceptionSelective Pease, Brannon and Pilling (2006)
  • 7.
    macrotheories of publicopinion Case study: Which are the most popular mediums used in Sg during GE2011?
  • 8.
    •  Trust ishigher for traditional media sources macrotheories of public opinion Singapore GE2011 Media Use Institute of Policy Studies (2011) 3.45   3.44   2.78   2.76   2.51   2.28   0   1   2   3   4   5   Trust  in  media  sources   TV  news   Newspaper   Party  brochures   Blogs   Facebook   TwiDer  
  • 9.
    macrotheories of publicopinion Singapore GE2011 Media Use Institute of Policy Studies (2011) •  90% use traditional media (newspapers and television) as a source of information •  41.1% of people read election news online •  21% reading online political blogs up from 13% in 2010 IPS survey
  • 10.
    macrotheories of publicopinion Singapore GE2011 Agenda Setting Wu and Soon (2011) •  Overall agenda setting in Singapore GE 2011 occurs in both directions •  Twitter is seen as less reflective of the other media types (content wise) •  Results support increase use and adoption of Facebook and Twitter as a prominent channel of communication and civic engagement
  • 12.
    macrotheories of publicopinion Social Control Perpetuating Cultivation
  • 13.
    macrotheories of publicopinion Cultivation effects •  Institutional process analysis –  Examines the production, management and distribution of media messages •  Message system analysis –  Examines the content that makes up the television programme such as media portrayals •  Cultivation analysis –  The relationship between exposure to television and people’s beliefs, attitudes and knowledge, awareness of issues. –  Desensitization to violence
  • 14.
    •  1969-1985: statusquo perpetuated women are less likely to be portrayed than men •  1990s: increased portrayals but occupational roles still reflected predominant stereotypes of the type of jobs women should hold, more female housewives than law enforcers •  2000s: cultivation effects showed less stereotypical sexroles. macrotheories of public opinion Meta-analysis of sex roles Cultivation Shanahan, Signorielli, & Morgan (2008) 1969 1990 2000
  • 15.
    macrotheories of publicopinion Mainstreaming •  dominant sets of attitudes, beliefs, values and practices exist within a culture are adopted by heavy viewers and override their own pre- existing perspectives and attitudes •  Viewing popular medical drama grey’s anatomy is associated with perceptions of doctors’ courageousness mediated by high credibility ratings for the television programme
  • 16.
    macrotheories of publicopinion Resonance •  Resonance: the situation where events in real life support the distorted image of reality shown on television (Bryant & Thompson, 2002) •  Resonance mediates r/s between identification and parasocial interaction with TV program’s protagonist and attitudes toward smoking (Lauzen & Dozier, 2003) •  Resonance effect more significant than mainstreaming (Nan, 2010)
  • 17.
    macrotheories of publicopinion Cultivation a critique •  Inconsistencies with operationalization of the most important variable: Television exposure –  Take total viewing x 5 (Heath & Petraitis 1987) –  Total viewing for a day on average (Shrum & Bishak 2001) –  Volume of viewing per day plus frequency of viewing (Custers & Bulck, 2011) –  Implications for external and internal validity not addressed •  users of new media have greater power to select content they consume •  mainstream views difficult to convey through the new media due to fragmented attention on the internet (less social control)
  • 18.
    •  Highly participatoryenvironments such as MMORPG strengthens cultivation effects because of the interactive and participatory nature of the internet •  Call for new theories, methods to measure and quantify macro-level effects on the Internet platform •  Extend theory beyond social-psychological effects macrotheories of public opinion Future take on Cultivation Metzger (2009)
  • 20.
    Baseline Understanding macrotheories ofpublic opinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obtrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO MACRO Willingness to Express Own Opinion IVs Main DV Individual Behavioural Outcome Aggregate Effects across Society Theorized Extrapolation Cultural Factors
  • 21.
    Baseline Understanding macrotheories ofpublic opinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obtrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO Media Portrayal Immediate Social Environment MACRO Incongruent? Perceptions of Public Opinion on issue X Own opinion on issue X Silence Public Opinion Climate Spiraling Mechanism explains PO formation IVs Theorized Extrapolation Quasi- statistical sense
  • 22.
    Objectives Today •  Challengeold conventions of SoS research •  New measure of the IV and the DV •  Question the implicit assumption of the spiraling mechanism –  How does Individual Silence lead to Aggregate Silence in the formation of public opinion? •  Address concerns for cross-cultural comparisons •  Introduce new variable that would improve SoS theory •  Attitude Certainty •  Propose framework for future SoS research macrotheories of public opinion Anything in italics and in the body text is the presenter’s own interpretation
  • 23.
    Reexamining Core Variables macrotheoriesof public opinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obtrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO MACRO Willingness to Express Own Opinion IVs Main DV Individual Behavioural Outcome Aggregate Effects across Society Theorized Extrapolation ? ? ? ? Cultural Factors
  • 24.
  • 25.
    Development of aNew FSI Scale •  Fear of Social Isolation (FSI) as a replacement for fear of isolation •  To address the inconsistencies with IV measurement of the fear of isolation before this •  Previous measures of the IV plagued with problems of interpretation •  E.g. Scheufele et al. (2001), Ho & McLeod (2008) used a scale that was clearly bidimensional, including an “argumentativeness factor” •  New FSI Scale is unidimensional macrotheories of public opinion Hayes et al.,Communication Research, 2011
  • 26.
    Development of aNew FSI Scale macrotheories of public opinion •  I worry about being isolated if people disagree with me •  I don’t worry about other people avoiding me •  I avoid telling other people what I think when I think there is a risk they’ll avoid me •  I enjoy avoiding arguments •  Arguing over controversial issues improves my intelligence •  I enjoy a good argument over a controversial issue •  I try to avoid getting into arguments Argumentativeness Hayes et al.,Communication Research, 2011
  • 27.
    •  It isscary to think about not being invited to social gatherings by people I know •  One of the worst things that could happen to me is to be excluded by people I know •  It would bother me if no one wanted to be around me •  I dislike feeling left out of social functions, parties, or other social gatherings •  It is important to me to fit into the group I am with
  • 28.
    Reexamine the CoreDV macrotheories of public opinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obstrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO MACRO Willingness to Express Own Opinion IVs Main DV Individual Behavioural Outcome Aggregate Effects across Society Theorized Extrapolation ? ? ? Cultural Factors
  • 29.
    Willingness to Self-Censor(WTSC) •  Shown by Hayes et al. (2005, 2010) to be a viable construct in the analysis of SoS •  Reliable •  Valid •  Statistically distinct from competing measures •  Recently used in a nine-country comparative analysis that confirmed SoS predictions (Matthes et al., 2010) •  Positive and negative frame •  WTSC is more intuitively aligned with the concept of silence •  WTEO? Have to think of the concept in reverse –  Lack of willingness to express opinions that leads to silence macrotheories of public opinion Hayes et al., IJPOR, 2005, Communication Methods and Measures, 2010 Herbert’s   interpret aGon  
  • 30.
    Questioning the StatusQuo macrotheories of public opinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obstrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO MACRO Willingness to Express Own Opinion IVs Main DV Individual Behavioural Outcome Aggregate Effects across Society Theorized Extrapolation ? ? ? Cultural Factors
  • 31.
    Extensive Cultural Comparisons • Previous research: two countries in dichotomous collectivistic-individualistic comparison •  Willnat, Lee & Detember (2002) – Singapore only as collectivistic exemplar •  Lee et al. (2004) – Singapore vs. United States •  Huang (2005) – Taiwan vs. US •  Now: 8-9 countries cross-analyzed macrotheories of public opinion
  • 32.
    •  Cultural dimensionsanalyzed in studies •  Social Independence/Interdependence (x-axis) –  Individualism/Collectivism •  Governing disposition (y-axis) –  Full democracy/Flawed Democracy/Hybrid Regime/ Authoritarian Regime •  IV: Hayes et al. (2011) measure of FSI •  DV: Hayes et al. (2005, 2010) measure of WTSC macrotheories of public opinion Matthes et al., ICA, 2010 Testing Spiral of Silence Theory in Nine Countries: An Individual Differences Perspective
  • 33.
    macrotheories of publicopinion Not to scale, only for relative comparison Higher democracy index Lower democracy index More Individualistic More Collectivistic Germany USA UKFrance South Korea Russia China Chile Mexico (not significant) CorrelaGonal  size  between   WTSC  and  FSI  (β)  was  not     significantly  associated  with  the   level  of  individualism  or  the   level  of  democracy  as  cultural   dimensions  -­‐  so?   Testing Spiral of Silence Theory in Nine Countries: An Individual Differences Perspective
  • 34.
    The  posi)ve  correla)on  between  FSI  and  WTSC  in  eight   of  the  nine  countries  we  examined  hints  to  the  almost   universal  nature  of  spiral  of  silence  theory  as  originally   theorized  by  Noelle-­‐Neumann  (1974).  By  the  same  token,   the  size  of  these  correla)ons  did  not  depend  on  a   country’s  democracy  index  or  level  of  individualism.  In   other  words,  spiral  of  silence  processes  can  be  assumed   to  occur  in  many  countries  and  across  cultures.  
  • 35.
    macrotheories of publicopinion Not to scale, only for relative comparison Higher democracy index Lower democracy index More Individualistic More Collectivistic Germany USA UKFrance South Korea China Chile Suggests  Cultural  Boundary   condiGon  on  SoS  processes   Stimulating the quasi-statistical organ: FSI motivates the quest for knowledge of the opinion climate Hayes et al.,Communication Research, 2011
  • 36.
    Questioning the StatusQuo macrotheories of public opinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obstrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO MACRO Willingness to Express Own Opinion IVs Main DV Individual Behavioural Outcome Aggregate Effects across Society Theorized Extrapolation ? Cultural Factors
  • 37.
  • 38.
    •  Unit ofAnalysis: Society (system in which groups interact) •  Vs. unit of analysis in SoS surveys: Individual •  How does Individual Silence translate to Aggregate Silence in the formation of public opinion? macrotheories of public opinion Aggregate Opinion Formation? Sum Collective Dynamics of the SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring
  • 39.
    macrotheories of publicopinion Sohn & Geidner, ICA, 2010 Collective Dynamics of the SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring
  • 40.
    •  Attacks implicitassumption: if individual-level conditions are met, the spiraling process is likely to occur •  However, individuals in the real world interact in almost random manner •  Formation of opinion climate cannot be inferred directly from the sum of individual traits at current-time survey snapshots macrotheories of public opinion Aggregate Opinion Formation? Sum Sohn & Geidner, ICA, 2010 Collective Dynamics of the SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring
  • 41.
    •  Society asa System of social interdependence •  cannot be measured with surveys or experiments because •  the consequences of multiple- agent interactions over time fail to match what might be expected, simplistically, of an individual agent macrotheories of public opinion Sohn & Geidner, ICA, 2010 Collective Dynamics of the SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring
  • 42.
    Collective Dynamics ofthe SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring •  Also, regression tests in surveys assume collective human behavior can be linearly modeled (OLS estimation) •  Complexity and nonlinear dynamics research from other disciplines say otherwise – Macro-level outcomes can be astonishingly complex and unpredictable macrotheories of public opinion Sohn & Geidner, ICA, 2010
  • 43.
    •  Used computersimulation method called Agent-based modeling (ABM) •  Examined the generative mechanism through which individuals’ local social interactions (e.g. opinion sampling and monitoring) translate into macro-level outcomes macrotheories of public opinion Sohn & Geidner, ICA, 2010 Collective Dynamics of the SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring
  • 44.
    •  Computational Stats:Using behavioral rules established in surveys and experiments to come up with a derivative formula to model Spiral of Silence macrotheories of public opinion Sohn & Geidner, ICA, 2010 Collective Dynamics of the SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring
  • 45.
    •  Findings: testedfor and confirmed one societal-level boundary condition •  Observation range of an individual •  Large scale SoS occurs only when a critical mass of individuals having larger observation ranges is reached •  So that large cascades of effects can occur throughout society •  “Domino effect” •  Implication: Fragmentation in the media environment could lead to fewer individuals having similar views of the opinion climate •  Which could make the Spiral of Silence less likely macrotheories of public opinion Sohn & Geidner, ICA, 2010 Collective Dynamics of the SoS: The Role of Quasi-statistical monitoring
  • 47.
    Reinforcing Spirals: TheMutual Influence of Media Selectivity and Media Effects and Their Impact on Individual Behavior and Social Identity •  Combines Cultivation and SoS •  Hypothesized that attitudinal or behavioral outcomes of media use can be expected to influence selection of and attention to media content •  Process can be conceptualized in terms of mutually reinforcing spirals akin to positive feedback loops •  Reinforcing spirals perspective highlights the need for longitudinal modeling of mutually influencing media selection and effects processes •  And be applied to Cultivation research macrotheories of public opinion Slater, Communication Theory, 2007
  • 48.
    Reinforcing Spirals: TheMutual Influence of Media Selectivity and Media Effects and Their Impact on Individual Behavior and Social Identity •  Spirals perspective: influence of group communicative and media influences •  Media as corollary role •  Cultivation: larger society influences •  Media as Predictor IV •  Study also suggests that larger society influences (as dictated by cultivation) may be a key factor in countering the acceleration of reinforcing spirals •  Tension and competition between group perspectives (reinforcing spirals) and those of larger society •  E.g. Tension between sociopolitical blog The Online Citizen vs. traditional public domains macrotheories of public opinion Slater, Communication Theory, 2007
  • 49.
    macrotheories of publicopinion Slater, Communication Theory, 2007
  • 50.
    Selective Posting: Willingnessto Post a Message Online •  Experiment •  Employed real situation instead of hypotheticals macrotheories of public opinion Yun & Park, Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 2011
  • 51.
    Selective Posting: Willingnessto Post a Message Online •  2x2 Factorial Design (Message Congruence X Anonymity) •  Main DV: Willingness to speak out •  Actual behavioral measure operationalized by message posting on online forum A C B D Anonymous Not Anonymous Congruent Incongruent macrotheories of public opinion Yun & Park, Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 2011
  • 52.
    Selective Posting: Willingnessto Post a Message Online •  Significant main effect of Message Congruence •  Participants in a congruent condition were twice more willing to post a message •  Result supported the SOS explanation that majority opinion holders were more willing to post a message •  No significant main effect of Anonymity •  Registration (not anonymous) vs no-registration (anonymous) condition may not lead to saliently perceived differences among the participants macrotheories of public opinion Yun & Park, Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 2011
  • 53.
    Selective Posting: Willingnessto Post a Message Online •  Significant interaction between pre- experimental issue position and message congruence •  Reinforcement effects and selective perception •  Participants exposed to incongruent messages strengthened their existing issue positions •  Whereas participants who were exposed to congruent messages did not significantly strengthen their issue position •  Links to yet another study involving attitude certainty macrotheories of public opinion Yun & Park, Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 2011
  • 54.
    Selective Posting: Willingnessto Post a Message Online •  Selective posting of congruent messages on online forums will impose a serious threat to the ideal of an open market place of ideas on the Internet •  Paper tries to refute Benkler, Castells (haha) •  Original SoS proposition needs to be modified to meet the current multichannel media environment •  And take into account of influences from social media macrotheories of public opinion Yun & Park, Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 2011
  • 55.
    Questioning the StatusQuo macrotheories of public opinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obstrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO MACRO Willingness to Express Own Opinion IVs Main DV Individual Behavioural Outcome Aggregate Effects across Society Theorized Extrapolation ? Cultural Factors
  • 56.
    •  Opinion climateonly determines opinion expression when individuals hold their attitudes with low or moderate attitude certainty •  For individuals with high attitude certainty, no SoS effect •  SoS only for some but not all members of public macrotheories of public opinion Matthes et al., Communication Research, 2010 A Spiral of Silence for Some: Attitude Certainty and the Expression of Political Minority Opinions
  • 57.
    A Spiral ofSilence for Some: Attitude Certainty and the Expression of Political Minority Opinions •  Underlying theoretical basis: Attitude certainty is an indicator of attitude strength •  Definition: People hold their attitudes with varying levels of conviction/assurance •  Previous SoS research espoused “Hardcore individuals” •  Current study advocated attitude certainty as a better way of distinguishing btw Hardcore and non- Hardcore individuals macrotheories of public opinion Matthes et al., Communication Research, 2010
  • 58.
    A Spiral ofSilence for Some: Attitude Certainty and the Expression of Political Minority Opinions macrotheories of public opinion Matthes et al., Communication Research, 2010 Perceive   self  as   minority   Perceive   self  as   majority   ModeraGon  Effect   of  High  Atude   Certainty  
  • 59.
    Conclusion macrotheories of publicopinion Socio- demographics Fear of Isolation Issue Obstrusiveness etc. Individual Traits MICRO MACRO Willingness to Express Own Opinion IVs Main DV Individual Behavioural Outcome Aggregate Effects across Society Theorized Extrapolation Cultural Factors
  • 60.
    Future Directions of SoS? macrotheories ofpublic opinion Socio- demographics Hayes’ 5-item FSI Measure Issue Obstrusiveness *Communication Apprehension, Attitude Certainty as moderator… Hayes’ Willingness to Self-censor Aggregate Effects across Society Cultural Factors *Aggregation of social media = Habermasian Public Sphere? Use ABM or viable computational methods if need to extrapolate to aggregation Media Portrayal Immediate Social Environment, interpersonal group referents *Reinforcing Spirals: Media Selectivity positive feedback loop *Selective Posting on CMC platforms and social media *Group referents on social media *new additions to SoS theoretical framework *ABM?  
  • 61.
    What might bethe future of SoS? •  Advance beyond influence of referent groups or traditional media portrayals •  Consider massively communicative networked systems –  What differentiates social media? •  Asynchronous communication •  User-generated content (cultivation effects?) •  Yet restrict effects to within “filter bubbles” –  proximately socialized places online = locally socialized environments offline •  Distinct virtual third places •  The Online Citizen can be perceived as Coffee House of Talkcock A •  Temasek Review Emeritus can be Talkcock Pub B •  Yahoo Singapore chat can be hangout place C •  Limit generalizability to within the same unit of analysis •  Less contention about cross-cultural applicability •  Caveat: Spiral of Silence may not be well understood in authoritarian regimes •  Democracies – pretty much ok to employ macrotheories of public opinion
  • 62.
  • 63.
  • 64.
    Define Resonance and give1 research example &Answers Questions
  • 65.
    •  Taking thecase of Singaporean’s reaction to public official’s sexual conduct as reported in the Straits Times. Which media approach would you use to investigate the polarised opinion? •  Cultivation or spiral of silence? Explain. macrotheories of public opinion Discussion
  • 66.
    •  Do youagree that Singapore journalists’ orientations, attitudes and beliefs in Singapore reflect that of the population? – Issue: $1.1 billion of public’s money spent on new buses macrotheories of public opinion Discussion
  • 67.
    •  How doesSoS apply to social media platforms? •  Critique the idea of treating the aggregate of social media as equivalent to a Habermasian public sphere –  May not ideal, but approaching ideal –  Remember key tenets: informed judgments, best argument wins macrotheories of public opinion Discussion
  • 68.
    Singapore: Fear of socialisolation or Fear of authoritarian reprisal/legal lawsuits? macrotheories of public opinion Discussion
  • 69.
  • 70.
    •  Social filtering • TED: Ethan Zuckerman •  Algorithmic filtering •  TED: Eli Pariser •  Online “filter bubbles” a threat to democracy, and undermines Public Sphere macrotheories of public opinion “…one  day  I  no)ced  that  the   conserva)ves  had  disappeared   from  my  Facebook  feed…”   Discussion
  • 71.