Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Convertible Bonds and Call Overwrites - 2007RYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Indicators Used to Identify Rich or Cheap OptionsRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Options on the VIX and Mean Reversion in Implied Volatility Skews RYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Identifying Rich and Cheap Implied VolatilityRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
The turm oil in financial markets across the globe caused by the rating downgrade of US Government debt by S&P will continue to haunt the Indian markets also for quite sometime to come.
Enhanced Call Overwriting*
Systematically overwriting the S&P 500 with 1-month at-the-money calls, rebalanced on a monthly basis at expiration, outperformed the S&P 500 Index during our sample period (1996 – 2005). This “base case” overwriting strategy also generated superior risk-adjusted returns versus the index.
Overwriting portfolios with out-of-the-money calls tends to outperform at-the-money overwriting during market rallies, but provides less protection during market downturns. However, out-of-the money overwriting also results in relatively higher return variability and inferior risk-adjusted performance.
During the sample period, overwriting the S&P 500 with short-dated options, rebalanced more frequently, outperformed overwriting with longer-dated options, rebalanced less frequently. We discuss possible explanations for these performance differences.
We find that going long the market during periods of heightened short-term anxiety, inferred from the presence of relatively high S&P 500 1-month at-the-money implied volatility, has, on average, been a winning strategy. To a slightly lesser extent, having relatively less exposure to the market during periods of complacency – or relatively low implied market implied volatility – was also beneficial.
We create an “enhanced” overwriting strategy – whereby investors systematically overwrite the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 with disproportionately fewer (more) calls against the indices when risk expectations are relatively high (low).
Our enhanced overwriting portfolios handily outperformed the base case overwrite portfolios and the respective underlying indices, on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis. For example, the average annual return for the S&P 500 enhanced overwriting portfolio from 1997 – 2005 was 7.9%, versus 6.6% for the base case overwrite portfolio and 5.5% for the S&P 500 Index.
Overwriting with fewer calls when implied volatility is rich, and more calls when implied volatility is cheap, could improve the absolute and risk-adjusted performance of index-oriented overwriting portfolios.
This goes against the conventional tendency for investors to sell calls against their positions when implied volatility is high.
*Renicker, Ryan and Devapriya Mallick., “Enhanced Call Overwriting.”, Lehman,Brothers Global Equity Research Nov 17, 2005.
Convertible Bonds and Call Overwrites - 2007RYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Indicators Used to Identify Rich or Cheap OptionsRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Options on the VIX and Mean Reversion in Implied Volatility Skews RYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Identifying Rich and Cheap Implied VolatilityRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
The turm oil in financial markets across the globe caused by the rating downgrade of US Government debt by S&P will continue to haunt the Indian markets also for quite sometime to come.
Enhanced Call Overwriting*
Systematically overwriting the S&P 500 with 1-month at-the-money calls, rebalanced on a monthly basis at expiration, outperformed the S&P 500 Index during our sample period (1996 – 2005). This “base case” overwriting strategy also generated superior risk-adjusted returns versus the index.
Overwriting portfolios with out-of-the-money calls tends to outperform at-the-money overwriting during market rallies, but provides less protection during market downturns. However, out-of-the money overwriting also results in relatively higher return variability and inferior risk-adjusted performance.
During the sample period, overwriting the S&P 500 with short-dated options, rebalanced more frequently, outperformed overwriting with longer-dated options, rebalanced less frequently. We discuss possible explanations for these performance differences.
We find that going long the market during periods of heightened short-term anxiety, inferred from the presence of relatively high S&P 500 1-month at-the-money implied volatility, has, on average, been a winning strategy. To a slightly lesser extent, having relatively less exposure to the market during periods of complacency – or relatively low implied market implied volatility – was also beneficial.
We create an “enhanced” overwriting strategy – whereby investors systematically overwrite the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 with disproportionately fewer (more) calls against the indices when risk expectations are relatively high (low).
Our enhanced overwriting portfolios handily outperformed the base case overwrite portfolios and the respective underlying indices, on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis. For example, the average annual return for the S&P 500 enhanced overwriting portfolio from 1997 – 2005 was 7.9%, versus 6.6% for the base case overwrite portfolio and 5.5% for the S&P 500 Index.
Overwriting with fewer calls when implied volatility is rich, and more calls when implied volatility is cheap, could improve the absolute and risk-adjusted performance of index-oriented overwriting portfolios.
This goes against the conventional tendency for investors to sell calls against their positions when implied volatility is high.
*Renicker, Ryan and Devapriya Mallick., “Enhanced Call Overwriting.”, Lehman,Brothers Global Equity Research Nov 17, 2005.
Ventrus Biosciences (NASDAQ: VTUS; Stock Twits; $VTUS) is a development stage specialty pharmaceutical company focused on the development of late-stage prescription drugs for gastrointestinal disorders, specifically hemorrhoids, anal fissures and fecal incontinence.
http://www.thechartist.com.au/membership-packages/chart-research.html
Elliot wave rules and guidelines to help us determine high-probability patter position of a market
Aaron Allen & Associates has curated a collection of modern pizza marketing promotions and campaigns that worked. See examples of effective digital, web, mobile, social, and four-walls marketing. Also includes examples of innovations in packaging, delivery vehicles, online ordering, and turnarounds.
Running a Restaurant in the Digital World - A Chef's Perspective is the title of a presentation by Chef Mark Garcia at the Unipro Mindshare Sales and Marketing Workshop in San Antonio Texas in September of 2011. Chef Mark Garcia teaches and trains chefs and restaurateurs how to better market themselves and their brands to make significant business breakthroughs. http://www.chefmarkgarcia.com/
Aaron Allen & Associates, a global restaurant consultancy, shares some of their recent projects and past experience. The firm has represented clients spanning 6 continents and over 100 countries and has also worked extensively in the Middle East.
Ventrus Biosciences (NASDAQ: VTUS; Stock Twits; $VTUS) is a development stage specialty pharmaceutical company focused on the development of late-stage prescription drugs for gastrointestinal disorders, specifically hemorrhoids, anal fissures and fecal incontinence.
http://www.thechartist.com.au/membership-packages/chart-research.html
Elliot wave rules and guidelines to help us determine high-probability patter position of a market
Aaron Allen & Associates has curated a collection of modern pizza marketing promotions and campaigns that worked. See examples of effective digital, web, mobile, social, and four-walls marketing. Also includes examples of innovations in packaging, delivery vehicles, online ordering, and turnarounds.
Running a Restaurant in the Digital World - A Chef's Perspective is the title of a presentation by Chef Mark Garcia at the Unipro Mindshare Sales and Marketing Workshop in San Antonio Texas in September of 2011. Chef Mark Garcia teaches and trains chefs and restaurateurs how to better market themselves and their brands to make significant business breakthroughs. http://www.chefmarkgarcia.com/
Aaron Allen & Associates, a global restaurant consultancy, shares some of their recent projects and past experience. The firm has represented clients spanning 6 continents and over 100 countries and has also worked extensively in the Middle East.
Technical Analysis of Gaps in Forex TradingInvestingTips
By www.TheForexNittyGritty.com
Technical Analysis of Gaps in Forex Trading
Uncertain times give rise to chaotic markets. Stocks, commodities and currencies tend to rise and fall unevenly. When currencies open the trading day well above or below their price at the end of the previous trading day it is called a gap. There is a gap in the price curve. This can be disconcerting for many traders.
However, astute traders can profit from technical analysis of gaps in Forex trading. Gaps occur for any number of reasons and gaps are often part of a larger picture which in turn is predictive of future pricing. Thus technical analysis of gaps in Forex trading looks at recent price patterns in order to profitably predict the future. Understanding gaps is a large part of technical analysis of Forex pairs.
Technical Analysis
Technical and fundamental analysis of Forex pairs are both cornerstones of effective and profitable Forex trading. Understanding the fundamentals is basic to working in Forex. However, much of the profit that traders gain comes from seeing trends and reversals in market sentiment. Traders use technical analysis of gaps in Forex trading as an adjunct to other signals. Oftentimes the most profit to be had in Forex trading is not to have correctly anticipated a gap but to successfully interpret its meaning.
Gaps and Signals
A commonly used and easy to read technical analysis system is Japanese candlesticks.
Many traders use candlestick patterns in Forex trading as a mainstay to their technical analysis or at least as a clear means of visualizing the market. Technical analysis of gaps in Forex trading means recognizing candlestick signals in which a gap is a major factor. With technical analysis of major Forex currencies in mind here are a few examples of technical analysis of gaps in Forex trading from the world of Japanese candlesticks.
Bullish Engulfing Pattern
This is a major candlestick signal. It occurs at the end of a downward trend for a traded currency and heralds a bull market. Interestingly the direction of the gap is away from the direction in which the currency is headed. In this signal a currency is falling in a clearly defined trend.
Then it gaps down to open a day but trades upwards and finishes the day above the opening price of the previous day. When this signal occurs with the second day being a high volume day and when the downward gap to start the day is substantial it is an even stronger indication of an emerging bull market.
The Three Black Crows
This candlestick signal has not just one but three gaps. There has been a well defined up trend of the traded currency. Then the currency trades downward for the day. On the two subsequent days it gaps up to start the day but both days are losing days. The signal looks like three black crows on successively lower perches. This signal is commonly a strong indication that the upward trend is over and the traded currency is headed downward.
Social Media Presentation on how Restaurants can use social media to drive traffic, increase awareness about their restaurant or unique offerings within their local community, and communicate with their customers and following. Web 2.0 is about listening and interacting with customers in real time. This presentation will help you get started as a restaurant owner or manager and discover best practices for implementing and monetizing social media marketing for your restaurant or food establishment.
Technical Analysis of Major Forex CurrenciesInvestingTips
By www.TheForexNittyGritty.com
Technical Analysis of Major Forex Currencies
Technical analysis of major Forex currencies tends to be more accurate and more profitable than that of minor currencies. This is largely because the major currencies trade in higher volume. Technical analysis of major Forex currencies is germane because these currencies trade one versus another whereas many minor currencies only trade versus the US dollar. When dealing with often volatile foreign currency rates the trader needs to make an accurate assessment of the market. This makes technical analysis of major Forex currencies essential.
Major Forex Currencies
The major Forex currencies are as follow:
• United States Dollar, USD
• Euro, EUR
• British Pound, GBP
• Yen, YEN
• Swiss franc, CHF
• Canadian Dollar, CAD
• Australian Dollar, AUD
These currencies are most traded and are tied to strong economies. Because of their high trading volume technical analysis of major Forex currencies tends to be much more accurate and more likely to lend profits to Forex technical strategies than with minor currency pairs.
Here are the top fifteen currencies by percentage of transactions in which they are traded.
Because there are two Forex currencies in a pair every trade has two currencies and every hundred trades has two hundred currencies represented. Thus the above table tallies up to 200 percent. As the above table demonstrates eighty-five percent of all Forex trades include the US dollar. Thirty-nine percent include the Euro. The Yen and British Pound follow at nineteen and thirteen percent respectively. This is not surprising as the USA and the Euro Zone are the world’s two largest economies and are responsible for the two largest portions of world trade. Because high volume leads to more accurate technical analysis the best technical analysis of major Forex currencies should be when trading the USD, EUR, YEN, and GBP, against each other. Although currency strength is decided by employment rates, monetary policy, balance of payments, and the like, technical analysis of Forex pairs focuses on evolving market sentiment and give traders the most up to date information as to where the market will go next. In Forex trading the Euro versus the USD, YEN, or other currencies technical analysis gives the astute trader an advantage in the markets.
Candlesticks: from Rice to Greenbacks
Hundreds of years ago rice traders in Japan recognized that is was possible to read the first part of a price pattern and successfully predict the second part. Japanese candlestick signals were devised in order to help traders profit in rice trading. Today they are in use by stock, commodity, and Forex traders.
Trade Forex From Home - 10 Biggest Mistakes New Forex Traders Make (And How T...ForexTraining
Its a fact that 94% of new Forex traders fail. Read the '10 Biggest Mistakes New Traders Make' so you don't make them too. The report has been written by me, Annabel Meade from http://www.tradeforexfromhome.com. I educate people to work less and earn more trading the Forex market. How much would you like to earn working 15 hours or less per week?
Real time sentiment analysis of twitter feeds with the NASDAQ indexEric Tham
We do a real-time analysis on twitter feeds computing its sentiment analysis using the hash tag #NASDAQ. This sentiment index is found to correlate well with the hourly movements of the NASDAQ index over the period 14-17th Apr 2014. In particular, a Granger causality analysis shows that the hourly movements of the NASDAQ drives tweet sentiment real-time and not vice versa during this period.
Corporate Earnings Watch - Expected Stock Price Movement on AnnouncementRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
UTI Value Opportunities Fund - Invest in UTI Opportunities Fund RinkuMishra13
UTI Value Opportunities Fund is an equity fund that invests in stocks that are considered undervalued. Click here to know more about value opportunities fund growth, fund NAV, etc.
Lithium Americas Corp. operates as a resource company in the United States and Argentina. The company explores for lithium deposits. It owns interests in the Cauchari-Olaroz project located in Jujuy province of Argentina; Thacker Pass project located in north-western Nevada; and Pastos Grandes project located in the Salta province of Argentina.
Based on the Lithium Americas Corp stock forecasts from 8 analysts, the average analyst target price for Lithium Americas Corp is CAD 47.88 over the next 12 months. Lithium Americas Corp’s average analyst rating is Strong Buy. Stock Target Advisor’s own stock analysis of Lithium Americas Corp is Slightly Bearish, which is based on 4 positive signals and 7 negative signals. At the last closing, Lithium Americas Corp’s stock price was CAD 28.52. Lithium Americas Corp’s stock price has changed by -10.29% over the past week, -11.92% over the past month and +50.42% over the last year.
In a matter of minutes, you can generate a detailed report with a side-by-side comparison that addresses the opportunities discovered in The Retirement Plan Diagnostic™. Communicate the features, benefits and overall impact of your value proposition in a concise format that's co-branded and customized to your firm's unique investment models and menus.
This tool is fully integrated with PlanFinder SM and The Retirement Plan Diagnostic SM for seamless data transfer from previously collected prospective plans. With the Retirement Plan Efficiency Analysis SM , you can save significant time and money while delivering tangible value in client meetings.
Variance based Case Study done by Predictive analytics for Market based , Credit based Risk
( Source & Inferences : Saxton Report on Housing crisis to US Congress) and Operational Risk
( Source & Inferences : The Time Cycle Module Volume I, Product launch of a soft drink brand)
Supply Chain Metrics That Matter: A Critical Look at Operating Margin -10 DEC...Lora Cecere
Executive Overview
If a supply chain leader cannot demonstrate improvement in operating margin, they are often fired. Consequences are severe. However, as complexity in global supply chains has increased, it has become increasingly difficult to improve profitability metrics. Among supply chain leaders, operating margin is one of the preferred measures of profitability.
Successful supply chain management is about balance and particularly the balancing of growth, profitability, cycle and complexity. This is what we call The Effective Frontier. Supply chain management is getting tougher as commodity markets get more volatile, wage prices increase, and product life cycles shorten. It is up to the supply chain leader to design the network and processes to protect margin and balance the supply chain. This is becoming an increasingly difficult task.
The challenges are many and they vary by industry. Commodity pressure is higher than at any previous point in time as shown in Figure 2. There is a limited toolkit for how to offset margin pressure. They include better planning, transportation optimization, rethinking network design, improved Sales & Operations (S&OP) execution, and Kanban events with suppliers and customers. None are easy or quick fixes.
Additionally, while many think that calculating cost and monitoring profitability should be easy, this is not true. In our research, we find that only 24% of companies surveyed can easily access total supply chain cost information. The ability to get to the data and connect the dots on cost to operating margin performance remains difficult for most. In fact, as shown in Figure 3, for 53% of survey respondents, getting to total supply chain cost is difficult.
Operating margin is a straightforward calculation with serious implications. Of the ten industries profiled in Table 1, only two have increased operating margin over the period: consumer electronics and consumer packaged goods. Furthermore, of the 18 companies profiled individually in this report, less than 40% (7/18 = 39%) have made progress on margin in 2012 compared to their result in 2000. As shown in Table 1, it is becoming more and more difficult for companies to maintain balance on their portfolio of supply chain metrics. This trend is true across all industry subgroups.
Companies with the highest operating margin tend to be the least mature in their understanding of supply chain principles. As a result, they demonstrate the worst performance in balancing competing priorities on the Supply Chain Effective Frontier and are stuck on the Supply Chain Plateau. The positions of companies, and their relative successes over the last decade, are shown in figure 4.
Table 1 is sorted by average operating margin with pharmaceutical companies returning the highest average value at 0.25 over the period. With the patent cliff, and significant changes in the healthcare environment including ongoing implementation of the Affordable Care Act, ...
Similar to The Lehman Brothers Volatility Screening Tool (20)
Various Media Citations - Ryan Renicker, CFARYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Options Trade Cheap Following Q2 Earnings - 2005RYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Telecom / Media Overview - Buy-Write Google (GOOG)RYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Equity Derivatives Strategy - A Stock Picker's Market?RYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Technology Stocks: A Stock Picker's Market?RYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
How to Strengthen Portfolio Returns as the Dollar Weakens!RYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Stock Options on ANF and GPS - The Market's Expectation for Same-Store SalesRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Option Strategies for Power and Utilities IndustriesRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Options Strategy Monthly - 2006 - Low Volatility in the 7th Inning? Housing M...RYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Pinning of Stock Prices on Expiration Date - Equity OptionsRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
The Risk and Return of the Buy Write Strategy On The Russell 2000 IndexRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Option Strategies - Natural Gas Trading OpportunitiesRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
McDonald's Options are Trading Rich - Super Sized VolatilityRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Option Implied Volatility for Small Cap StocksRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Collar Strategies - Not Hedged - Profitable but Also RiskyRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Risk Premium in Options for the Energy SectorRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Stock Market Indices Trading in a Very Narrow Trading RangeRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Weakening the Case for a "Summer Volatility Crush"RYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Eco-Innovations and Firm Heterogeneity.Evidence from Italian Family and Nonf...
The Lehman Brothers Volatility Screening Tool
1. December 27, 2005
Equity Volatility Snapshot
Ryan Renicker, CFA We update the list of stocks with rich or cheap options according to the Lehman Brothers
1.212.526.9425 Volatility Screen. This screen allows investors to look for rich or cheap 1 and 3 month
ryan.renicker@lehman.com
implied volatility at the single-stock level, within or across sectors, by analyst rating, or
Devapriya Mallick earnings release date. Our universe includes the constituents of the S&P 500, S&P 400 and
1.212.526.5429
the Nasdaq 100 indexes.
dmallik@lehman.com
In our backtest, we found three reliable indicators for identifying under- or over-priced options
at the single-stock level: the implied – realized volatility spread, the implied – S&P 500
implied volatility spread and the implied – market-cap-weighted average sector implied
volatility spread.
We label an option as rich if each of these spreads is currently at least one standard
deviation above the average of where the respective spread has traded during the past two
years. Alternatively, an option is considered to be cheap if each of these spreads is currently
at least one standard deviation below the average of where the respective spread has traded
during the past two years. Please see our report titled Identifying Rich and Cheap Implied
Volatility for additional details and our backtesting methodology.
Investors can use the Volatility Screen to identify potentially attractive long or short volatility
candidates. Alternatively, investors can express a directional view on the underlying by
buying or selling options. Moreover, with our customized screening tool, investors can import
their holdings or watch list to quickly analyze at-the-money implied volatility for stocks they are
interested in.
The updated Volatility Screen is available on Ryan Renicker’s analyst webpage on
LehmanLive (top right-hand corner of the page).
Lehman Brothers does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Customers of Lehman Brothers in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them,
where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.lehmanlive.com or can call 1-800-2LEHMAN to request a copy of this research.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 4.
2. Equity Derivatives Strategy | Equity Volatility Snapshot
Options Currently Having “Rich” or “Cheap” Implied Volatility
Figure 1: Stocks Having “Rich” Options According to the Volatility Screen
Std Devs from Std Devs from Std Devs from
Lehman Lehman Expected 3-Month
Mean (3-Month Mean (3-Month Mean (3-Month
Ticker Name GICS Sector Company Sector Price Earnings Implied Rich/Cheap
Implied vs Implied vs Implied vs S&P
Rating View Date Volatility
Realized) Sector) 500)
ADTN ADTRAN INC Information Technology 1-Overweight 2-Neutral 31.76 1/24/2006 46% 1.6 2.8 2.0 Rich
ASN ARCHSTONE-SMITH TRUST Financials 3-Underweight 2-Neutral 42.28 2/2/2006 29% 3.1 3.6 3.6 Rich
BCR BARD (C.R.) INC Health Care 0-Unrated 0-Unrated 67.50 1/26/2006 23% 1.5 1.2 1.9 Rich
BKH BLACK HILLS CORP Utilities RS-Rating Suspe2-Neutral 34.88 2/7/2006 24% 1.5 2.6 2.6 Rich
CEY CERTEGY INC Information Technology 1-Overweight 2-Neutral 40.68 1/26/2006 31% 3.4 2.4 2.6 Rich
CR CRANE CO Industrials 0-Unrated 0-Unrated 36.53 1/24/2006 37% 1.7 3.2 3.3 Rich
DBD DIEBOLD INC Information Technology 0-Unrated 0-Unrated 38.59 1/26/2006 31% 1.2 3.0 3.5 Rich
GM GENERAL MOTORS CORP Consumer Discretionary 2-Equal weight 2-Neutral 18.83 1/26/2006 85% 2.8 3.8 3.7 Rich
HRS HARRIS CORP Information Technology 1-Overweight 1-Positive 44.07 1/25/2006 31% 1.3 1.4 1.7 Rich
IVX IVAX CORP Health Care 2-Equal weight 2-Neutral 32.07 3/15/2006 81% 4.5 4.1 3.9 Rich
LEA LEAR CORP Consumer Discretionary 3-Underweight 2-Neutral 28.53 1/26/2006 44% 2.2 2.0 2.1 Rich
LUK LEUCADIA NATIONAL CORP Financials 0-Unrated 0-Unrated 47.89 3/14/2006 24% 1.5 1.3 1.5 Rich
MAN MANPOWER INC Industrials 0-Unrated 0-Unrated 47.69 2/1/2006 26% 1.2 1.1 1.5 Rich
MCO MOODY'S CORP Financials 0-Unrated 0-Unrated 62.12 2/16/2006 22% 1.1 1.0 1.2 Rich
NYT NEW YORK TIMES CO -CL A Consumer Discretionary 2-Equal weight 3-Negative 26.40 1/24/2006 24% 1.5 2.5 2.7 Rich
PCL PLUM CREEK TIMBER CO Financials 0-Unrated 0-Unrated 37.05 1/31/2006 22% 2.2 1.7 1.9 Rich
PGL PEOPLES ENERGY CORP Utilities 2-Equal weight 2-Neutral 35.69 1/27/2006 20% 1.0 1.2 1.8 Rich
SFG STANCORP FINANCIAL GROUP Financials 3-Underweight 2-Neutral 50.04 2/1/2006 27% 1.1 2.5 2.6 Rich
SPG SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC Financials 1-Overweight 2-Neutral 78.35 2/6/2006 24% 1.2 1.8 2.0 Rich
VRTX VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCHealth Care 0-Unrated 0-Unrated 28.79 2/9/2006 68% 1.3 3.8 4.3 Rich
VRX VALEANT PHARMACEUTICALS IN Health Care 0-Unrated 0-Unrated 18.77 2/24/2006 67% 2.8 5.1 5.1 Rich
Source: Lehman Brothers, OptionMetrics, Bloomberg, FAME
Note: This screen does not exclude stocks with illiquid options. Investors should consider liquidity before entering into an options position. Stocks that appear as unrated are either
not covered by Lehman Brothers fundamental analysts or are currently subject to research restrictions.
Figure 2: Stocks Having “Cheap” Options According to the Volatility Screen
Std Devs from Std Devs from Std Devs from
Lehman Lehman Expected 3-Month
Mean (3-Month Mean (3-Month Mean (3-Month
Ticker Name GICS Sector Company Sector Price Earnings Implied Rich/Cheap
Implied vs Implied vs Implied vs S&P
Rating View Date Volatility
Realized) Sector) 500)
ACS AFFILIATED COMPUTER SVCS-A Information Technology 1-Overweight 2-Neutral 61.00 1/20/2006 20% -4.0 -3.0 -2.3 Cheap
ATYT ATI TECHNOLOGIES INC Information Technology 1-Overweight 1-Positive 16.83 3/24/2006 35% -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 Cheap
EXBD CORPORATE EXECUTIVE BOARDIndustrials 2-Equal weight 2-Neutral 91.47 2/1/2006 24% -2.2 -1.4 -1.0 Cheap
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC Industrials 0-Unrated 0-Unrated 13.58 3/10/2006 38% -1.7 -1.2 -1.1 Cheap
RHAT RED HAT INC Information Technology 0-Unrated 0-Unrated 27.98 3/31/2006 41% -2.0 -1.4 -1.2 Cheap
SMTC SEMTECH CORP Information Technology 2-Equal weight 1-Positive 18.93 3/1/2006 33% -3.4 -2.1 -1.7 Cheap
WDC WESTERN DIGITAL CORP Information Technology 2-Equal weight 2-Neutral 18.85 1/27/2006 36% -2.2 -1.3 -1.1 Cheap
Source: Lehman Brothers, OptionMetrics, Bloomberg, FAME
Note: Acquisition targets with very low volatility have been removed from this list. Stocks that appear as unrated are either not covered by Lehman Brothers fundamental analysts or
are currently subject to research restrictions.
December 27, 2005 2
3. Equity Derivatives Strategy | Equity Volatility Snapshot
Volatility Screen Summary Output
Number of Standard Deviations Above or Below
Spreads’ 2-Year Average
Current 1-Month If > 1 then “Rich”. If < -1 then “Cheap”
Implied Volatility
Rich/Cheap Metrics: Rich/Cheap Metrics:
Company Details 1-Month 3-Month
Implied Volatility Implied Volatility
Volatility Screen User Interface
Obtain Implied Volatility
Analytics for an
Individual Stock
Screen Universe for
Rich/Cheap Volatility, By
Sector, Analyst Rating,
Earnings Period
Implied and Realized Volatility Implied and Realized Rich/Cheap Indicators for
for Individual Stock Screened Individual Stock Screened
Note: Stocks that appear as unrated are either not covered by Lehman Brothers fundamental analysts or are currently subject to research restrictions.
December 27, 2005 3
4. Equity Derivatives Strategy | Equity Volatility Snapshot
Analyst Certification:
The respective research analysts responsible for the fundamental ratings hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research email accurately reflect our
personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this email and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this email.
I, Ryan Renicker, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research email accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or
issuers referred to in this email and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed
in this email.
To the extent that any of the conclusions are based on a quantitative model, Lehman Brothers hereby certifies (1) that the views expressed in this research email
accurately reflect the firm's quantitative research model (2) no part of the firm's compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Important Disclosures
Lehman Brothers does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a
conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this email communication.
Customers of Lehman Brothers in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to
them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.lehmanlive.com or can call 1-800-2-LEHMAN to request a copy of
this research.
Investors should consider this communication as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the Firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is
generated by investment banking activities.
Stock price and ratings history charts along with other important disclosures are available on our disclosure website at www.lehman.com/disclosures
And may also be obtained by sending a written request to: LEHMAN BROTHERS CONTROL ROOM , 745 SEVENTH AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR NEW YORK, NY
10019
Options are not suitable for all investors and the risks of option trading should be weighed against the potential rewards.
Supporting documents that form the basis of the recommendations are available on request. Please note that the trade ideas within
this report in no way relate to the fundamental ratings applied to European stocks by Lehman Brothers' Equity Research.
Guide to Lehman Brothers Equity Research Rating System
Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as 1-Overweight, 2- Equal weight or 3-Underweight (see definitions below) relative to other
companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry sector (“the sector coverage universe”). To see a list of companies that
comprise a particular sector coverage universe, please go to www.lehman.com/disclosures.
In addition to the stock rating, we provide sector views which rate the outlook for the sector coverage universe as 1-Positive, 2-Neutral or 3-Negative (see definitions below).
A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system. Investors should carefully read the entire research report including the
definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.
Stock Rating
1-Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.
2-Equal weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.
3-Underweight - The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.
RS-Rating Suspended - The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances
including when Lehman Brothers is acting in an advisory capacity on a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.Sector View
1-Positive - sector coverage universe fundamentals are improving.
2-Neutral - sector coverage universe fundamentals are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating.
3-Negative - sector coverage universe fundamentals are deteriorating.
December 27, 2005 4