Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
• B-Toto is worth a bet now as i) its core gaming operations remained resilient even
during the post-CNY off-peak period and appear likely to surpass our 6-7% gaming
revenue growth target for FY4/09, ii) 2009’s special draw allocations for all three
NFOs could take place over the next few weeks and iii) there is upside potential to its
6-8% gross dividend yield based on its policy of a minimum payout of 75% if B-Toto
dishes out higher dividends to lend its parent a helping hand.
• Adjusting earnings but implied yields still decent. We raise our FY09-11’s
revenue per draw growth assumptions by 2-4% pts following the stronger-thanexpected
YTD showing. But FY10-11’s bottomline is lowered by 4-5% as we also
raise our blended prize payout assumption from 62-64% to 63-64% to better reflect
the payout trends seen so far. FY09’s numbers are largely intact despite these
adjustments. Even after a 3-5% cut in our FY10-11 DPS projections (unchanged
80% payout ratio), our forecasts still imply a decent yield.
• Reiterate OUTPERFORM. Our DPS downgrades trim our end-CY09 target price
from RM5.95 to RM5.65, based on an unchanged 5% discount to its DDM value. We
continue to like B-Toto for its steady, low-risk topline growth, superior ROEs and
sustainable dividend yields. Being a low-beta stock, B-Toto may fall out of favour in a
rising market. However, we flag the likelihood of bumper dividends over the short
term. This is a potential share price catalyst that underpins our OUTPERFORM
recommendation, along with the normalisation of luck factor and market share gains.
• B-Toto is worth a bet now as i) its core gaming operations remained resilient even
during the post-CNY off-peak period and appear likely to surpass our 6-7% gaming
revenue growth target for FY4/09, ii) 2009’s special draw allocations for all three
NFOs could take place over the next few weeks and iii) there is upside potential to its
6-8% gross dividend yield based on its policy of a minimum payout of 75% if B-Toto
dishes out higher dividends to lend its parent a helping hand.
• Adjusting earnings but implied yields still decent. We raise our FY09-11’s
revenue per draw growth assumptions by 2-4% pts following the stronger-thanexpected
YTD showing. But FY10-11’s bottomline is lowered by 4-5% as we also
raise our blended prize payout assumption from 62-64% to 63-64% to better reflect
the payout trends seen so far. FY09’s numbers are largely intact despite these
adjustments. Even after a 3-5% cut in our FY10-11 DPS projections (unchanged
80% payout ratio), our forecasts still imply a decent yield.
• Reiterate OUTPERFORM. Our DPS downgrades trim our end-CY09 target price
from RM5.95 to RM5.65, based on an unchanged 5% discount to its DDM value. We
continue to like B-Toto for its steady, low-risk topline growth, superior ROEs and
sustainable dividend yields. Being a low-beta stock, B-Toto may fall out of favour in a
rising market. However, we flag the likelihood of bumper dividends over the short
term. This is a potential share price catalyst that underpins our OUTPERFORM
recommendation, along with the normalisation of luck factor and market share gains.
Not as bad as feared. Poor though the results were, the May results season was
not as bad as feared. In fact, there were reasons to be encouraged. The revision
ratio improved from 0.43x in Feb 09 to 0.6x, meaning that the earnings downgrade
momentum is not as lopsided as before. Some 60% of companies met
expectations (43% previously) and 25% failed to deliver (40% before). 15% did
better than expected, a slight pullback from 17% during the Feb results season. In
terms of sector performance, six disappointed while only two were above
expectations.
• EPS forecast surprisingly raised. More significant than the actual number of
companies that surpassed or missed expectations is the fact that 2009 and 2010
EPS have been raised, rather than cut. This is a pleasant surprise. Since the Feb
results season, 2009 EPS contraction has been reduced from 8% to around 6%
while 2010 EPS growth has been raised from 16% to 19%. Upgrades came largely
from the plantation sector due to firm CPO prices, as well as big caps such as
Axiata and Maybank, which more than offset letdowns from smaller caps.
• The worst could be over. In our Apr strategy when we upgraded Malaysia to
Overweight, we thought 2Q could provide a buying opportunity due to 1) the
expected poor results season, and 2) announcement of a sharp contraction in
1Q09 GDP. We were only partially right on the first count as 1Q09 results have
turned out to be not as bad as expected and did not present any major shocks or
earnings downgrades. This means that there is a good chance we are past the
worst as upcoming quarters may be more balanced and EPS cuts could have
bottomed out. Fundamentally, this is hugely positive for the market.
• New KLCI target of 1,220. Although our economics team was spot on about 1Q
GDP being weak – it sank 6.2% – the market took the bad news in its stride. This
is an indication of how far market confidence has improved in the past two
months. We continue to believe the gradual reinvestment of institutional funds’
spare cash will sustain the market rebound in 2H09. In view of the better-thanexpected
1Q results season, continued positive newsflow during PM Dato’ Sri
Najib Razak’s first 100 days in office and the gradual return of foreign funds to the
market, we upgrade our year-end KLCI target from 1,060 to 1,220 points after
removing the 10% discount to its 3-year moving average P/E of 15x. We maintain
our OVERWEIGHT stance on Malaysia and our preference for cyclical bombedout
sectors including construction, building materials, property and oil & ga
HMS Group presentation, Morgan Stanley EMEA Conference (April 2011)HMS Group
This presentation was created to present HMS Group at one-on-one meetings with investors within Morgan Stanley EMEA Conference (12-14 April 2011, London & New-York).
Not as bad as feared. Poor though the results were, the May results season was
not as bad as feared. In fact, there were reasons to be encouraged. The revision
ratio improved from 0.43x in Feb 09 to 0.6x, meaning that the earnings downgrade
momentum is not as lopsided as before. Some 60% of companies met
expectations (43% previously) and 25% failed to deliver (40% before). 15% did
better than expected, a slight pullback from 17% during the Feb results season. In
terms of sector performance, six disappointed while only two were above
expectations.
• EPS forecast surprisingly raised. More significant than the actual number of
companies that surpassed or missed expectations is the fact that 2009 and 2010
EPS have been raised, rather than cut. This is a pleasant surprise. Since the Feb
results season, 2009 EPS contraction has been reduced from 8% to around 6%
while 2010 EPS growth has been raised from 16% to 19%. Upgrades came largely
from the plantation sector due to firm CPO prices, as well as big caps such as
Axiata and Maybank, which more than offset letdowns from smaller caps.
• The worst could be over. In our Apr strategy when we upgraded Malaysia to
Overweight, we thought 2Q could provide a buying opportunity due to 1) the
expected poor results season, and 2) announcement of a sharp contraction in
1Q09 GDP. We were only partially right on the first count as 1Q09 results have
turned out to be not as bad as expected and did not present any major shocks or
earnings downgrades. This means that there is a good chance we are past the
worst as upcoming quarters may be more balanced and EPS cuts could have
bottomed out. Fundamentally, this is hugely positive for the market.
• New KLCI target of 1,220. Although our economics team was spot on about 1Q
GDP being weak – it sank 6.2% – the market took the bad news in its stride. This
is an indication of how far market confidence has improved in the past two
months. We continue to believe the gradual reinvestment of institutional funds’
spare cash will sustain the market rebound in 2H09. In view of the better-thanexpected
1Q results season, continued positive newsflow during PM Dato’ Sri
Najib Razak’s first 100 days in office and the gradual return of foreign funds to the
market, we upgrade our year-end KLCI target from 1,060 to 1,220 points after
removing the 10% discount to its 3-year moving average P/E of 15x. We maintain
our OVERWEIGHT stance on Malaysia and our preference for cyclical bombedout
sectors including construction, building materials, property and oil & ga
HMS Group presentation, Morgan Stanley EMEA Conference (April 2011)HMS Group
This presentation was created to present HMS Group at one-on-one meetings with investors within Morgan Stanley EMEA Conference (12-14 April 2011, London & New-York).
Convertible Bonds and Call Overwrites - 2007RYAN RENICKER
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BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
Yes of course, you can easily start mining pi network coin today and sell to legit pi vendors in the United States.
Here the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
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how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
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Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership Networks
Options Trade Cheap Following Q2 Earnings - 2005
1. EQUITY RESEARCH
August 04, 2005 North America
Investment Strategy & Macro
Equity Derivatives Strategy Equity Derivatives Strategy
Market CommentaryStrategy Ryan Renicker
1.212.526.9425
The Cheapest of the Cheap rrenicke@lehman.com
Sector View:
New: 0-Not Rated
Old: 0-Not Rated
Investment conclusion
! As the 2nd quarter earnings season winds to a close, we find that the majority of S&P 500 companies have either met or exceeded
expectations, leading to strength in the equity market. In fact, since June 30th, the S&P 500 has enjoyed an earnings-driven rally of about
4%. Moreover, 23 out of 24 S&P 500 industry groups are trading above their June 30th levels (Figure 1). From the option market's
perspective, U.S. equity risk expectations - which approached all-time lows heading into 2nd quarter earnings - have continued to decline,
as robust earnings allowed the market to consistently grind higher with low realized volatility (Figure 2). With Q2 earnings largely behind
us, and with implied volatilities again approaching all-time lows, we believe investors should consider expressing directional viewpoints
through options. We screen the S&P 500 to identify stocks that have the “cheapest” options, based on two metrics: 1) stocks having 3-
month implied volatility spreads versus the S&P 500 at least 1 standard deviation below the average of where the spread has traded
during the past year and 2) stocks having 3-month implied - 90-day realized volatility spreads at least 1 standard deviation below the
average of where this spread has traded during the past year (Figure 3).
Figure 1: Returns (6/30/05 – Present) Figure 2: S&P 500 Index Level & Volatility (YTD)
Semi & Semi Eqp 3M Implied Vol 90D Realized Vol S&P500
Transptn
Energy
Tech Hw & Eqp 16%
Real Estat e
Retailing 1,230
M aterials 15%
Auto & Comp
Sf tw & Svcs
Insurance
14% 1,210
S&P 500 Index
Con Dur&Ap 13%
Comm Svc&Sup 1,190
Telecomm Svcs
Pharm & Biot 12%
M edia
Ut ilities 1,170
Hc Equip&Svc 11%
Fd Bev & Tob
Hh & Pr Pdts 1,150
Food/Stpl Retail 10%
Cons Srv
Capit al Gds
Div Financial 9% 1,130
Banks
5
5
05
05
05
05
05
5
5
05
-0
l-0
-0
-0
n-
n-
n-
n-
b-
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
r-
ay
ar
ar
Ju
Ja
Ja
Ju
Ju
Fe
Ap
M
M
M
Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy. Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy.
Lehman Brothers does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors
should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Customers of Lehman Brothers in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or
companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this
independent research at www.lehmanlive.com or can call 1-800-2-LEHMAN to request a copy of this research.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decisions.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) ON PAGE 3 AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
BEGINNING ON PAGE 4
1
2. EQUITY RESEARCH
We screen the S&P 500 Index to identify stocks that we believe have the “cheapest” options. These stocks currently have
1) 3-month implied volatility spreads versus the S&P500 at least 1 standard deviation below the average of where the spread has
traded during the past year, and
2) 3-month implied minus 90-day realized volatility spreads at least 1 standard deviation below the average of where this spread
has traded during the past year.
Figure 3: S&P 500 Stocks Passing Our “Cheapness” Screen
Options "Cheap" Versus
90-Day
Ticker Name GICS Industry Group Name Last Price S&P500
Realized
BSC UN BEAR STEARNS COMPANIES INC DIVERS FINANC $ 103.97 Yes Yes
CA UN COMPUTER ASSOCIATES INTL INC SOFTWARE & SERVICES $ 27.56 Yes Yes
COF UN CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP DIVERS FINANC $ 83.15 Yes Yes
CTXS UQ CITRIX SYSTEMS INC SOFTWARE & SERVICES $ 23.59 Yes Yes
ET UN E*TRADE FINANCIAL CORP DIVERS FINANC $ 15.49 Yes Yes
HLT UN HILTON HOTELS CORP HOTELS REST & LEIS $ 24.98 Yes Yes
KEY UN KEYCORP BANKS $ 34.06 Yes Yes
MXIM UQ MAXIM INTEGRATED PRODUCTS SEMICONDUCTORS & SEMICONDUCTOR $ 45.20 Yes Yes
NWL UN NEWELL RUBBERMAID INC CONS DUR & APPAREL $ 25.06 Yes Yes
PAYX UQ PAYCHEX INC SOFTWARE & SERVICES $ 34.76 Yes Yes
QLGC UQ QLOGIC CORP TECH HARD & EQUIP $ 32.76 Yes Yes
RAI UN REYNOLDS AMERICAN INC FOOD BEV & TOBACCO $ 83.52 Yes Yes
SFA UN SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA INC TECH HARD & EQUIP $ 37.23 Yes Yes
TER UN TERADYNE INC SEMICONDUCTORS & SEMICONDUCTOR $ 15.25 Yes Yes
THC UN TENET HEALTHCARE CORP H CARE EQUIP & SVC $ 12.92 Yes Yes
X UN UNITED STATES STEEL CORP MATERIALS $ 42.65 Yes Yes
YHOO UQ YAHOO! INC SOFTWARE & SERVICES $ 34.41 Yes Yes
Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy.
We believe investors should consider expressing directional views in these names through options.
2
3. EQUITY RESEARCH
Options are not suitable for all investors and the risks of option trading should be weighed against the potential rewards.
Supporting documents that form the basis of the recommendations are available on request. Please note that the trade ideas within
this report in no way relate to the fundamental ratings applied to European stocks by Lehman Brothers' Equity Research.
Analyst Certification:
I, Ryan Renicker, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research Industry Note accurately reflect my personal views about any or
all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Industry Note and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Industry Note.
3
4. EQUITY RESEARCH
Important Disclosures:
The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the Firm’s total
revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.
Guide to Lehman Brothers Equity Research Rating System:
Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as 1-Overweight, 2- Equal weight or 3-Underweight (see
definitions below) relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry sector
(the “sector coverage universe”). To see a list of the companies that comprise a particular sector coverage universe, please go to
www.lehman.com/disclosures
In addition to the stock rating, we provide sector views which rate the outlook for the sector coverage universe as 1-Positive, 2-Neutral or
3-Negative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system.
Investors should carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.
Stock Rating
1-Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-month
investment horizon.
2-Equal weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a
12- month investment horizon.
3-Underweight - The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-
month investment horizon.
RS-Rating Suspended - The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm
policies in certain circumstances including when Lehman Brothers is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving the company.
Sector View
1-Positive - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving.
2-Neutral - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating.
3-Negative - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating.
Stock Ratings From February 2001 to August 5, 2002 (sector view did not exist):
This is a guide to expected total return (price performance plus dividend) relative to the total return of the stocks’ local market (i.e. the market
where the stock primarily trades) over the next 12 months.
1-Strong Buy - expected to outperform the market by 15 or more percentage points.
2-Buy - expected to outperform the market by 5-15 percentage points.
3-Market Perform - expected to perform in line with the market, plus or minus 5 percentage points.
4-Market Underperform - expected to underperform the market by 5-15 percentage points.
5-Sell - expected to underperform the market by 15 or more percentage points.
Distribution of Ratings:
Lehman Brothers Global Equity Research has 1734 companies under coverage.
41% have been assigned a 1-Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as Buy rating, 33% of
companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
42% have been assigned a 2-Equal weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as Hold rating, 7% of
companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
17% have been assigned a 3-Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as Sell rating, 85% of
companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
This material has been prepared and/or issued by Lehman Brothers Inc., member SIPC, and/or one of its affiliates (“Lehman Brothers”) and has been
approved by Lehman Brothers International (Europe), authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, in connection with its distribution in the
European Economic Area. This material is distributed in Japan by Lehman Brothers Japan Inc., and in Hong Kong by Lehman Brothers Asia Limited. This
material is distributed in Australia by Lehman Brothers Australia Pty Limited, and in Singapore by Lehman Brothers Inc., Singapore Branch. This material is
distributed in Korea by Lehman Brothers International (Europe) Seoul Branch. This document is for information purposes only and it should not be regarded
as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned in it. No part of this document may be reproduced in any
manner without the written permission of Lehman Brothers. With the exception of disclosures relating to Lehman Brothers, this research report is based on
current public information that Lehman Brothers considers reliable, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on
as such. In the case of any disclosure to the effect that Lehman Brothers Inc. or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity
securities of the subject company, the computation of beneficial ownership of securities is based upon the methodology used to compute ownership under
Section 13(d) of the United States' Securities Exchange Act of 1934. In the case of any disclosure to the effect that Lehman Brothers Inc. and/or its affiliates
hold a short position of at least 1% of the outstanding share capital of a particular company, such disclosure relates solely to the ordinary share capital of the
company. Accordingly, while such calculation represents Lehman Brothers’ holdings net of any long position in the ordinary share capital of the company, such
calculation excludes any rights or obligations that Lehman Brothers may otherwise have, or which may accrue in the future, with respect to such ordinary share
capital. Similarly such calculation does not include any shares held or owned by Lehman Brothers where such shares are held under a wider agreement or
4