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CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
how to lead, design and code through the unknown
uncertainty
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
nice to meet you.
galen murdock
software executive
software architect
ux designer
agile coach
ceo,
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
fear?
control?
embrace experiment with confidence
accept what’s unknown
practice awarenessuncertainty
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
fear?
control?
embrace experiment with confidence
accept what’s unknown
practice awarenessuncertainty
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
stimulus responseII
Between stimulus and response there is a space.
In that space is our power to choose our response.
In our response lies our growth and our freedom.
--Viktor E. Frankl
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
rider
Rational
Remembering self
Slow, Effortful, Analytical
WITH self-awareness or control
Often listens just to Elephant (Lazy)
Makes decisions
Easily exhausted
elephant
Emotional
Experiencing self
Fast, Automatic, Intuitive
WITHOUT self-awareness or control
“What you see is all there is” (Narrow view)
Delivers updates
Energetic
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
mindfulness
awareness of present experience
with acceptance
emotional agility
1. recognize your feelings
2. name your feelings
3. accept them
4. act according to your values
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
fear?
control?
embrace experiment with confidence
accept what’s unknown
practice awarenessuncertainty
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
Complicated Plans,
MRDs, PRDs, Specs
what we’ve been trained to do
Detailed Estimates,
Long-range budgets
Extensive engineering,
Intricate design.
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
“Don’t
manage
uncertainty
with methods
designed for
certainty.”
Dr. David Snowden
Uncertainty Expert
Creator of Cynefin
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
I can't control if we are
going to win.
I can control whether
we do the right things.
Marcio Sicoli
Olympic Coach to
Kerri Walsh Jennings & April Ross
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
complex
complicated
obvious
chaotic
guess & learn
entrepreneur
analyze
engineer
follow rules
bureaucrat
take action
firefighter
uncertainty (a.k.a. cynefin)
cause/effect is
obvious
cause/effect is
obvious to an expert
cause/effect is only
obvious in hindsight
there is no
cause/effect
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
The quest for certainty
blocks the search for
meaning.
Uncertainty is the very
condition to impel man to
unfold his powers.
Erich Fromm
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
fear?
control?
embrace experiment with confidence
accept what’s unknown
practice awarenessuncertainty
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
Creating an awesome product is hard
Foresee
20% of
features
Foresee
50% of
features
Foresee
80% of
features
Agile
works
well
Agile
at
limits
Agile
breaks
down
Innovation
-Driven
Plan-
Driven
Design-
Driven
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
veracity product launch
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
what if each feature were marked green or blue?
chaos
complex
complicated
obvious
http://cognitive-edge.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-SrumDays-Warsaw.pdf
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
how to recognize uncertainty
• often when you have a strong emotional reaction
• fear of the unknown
• anxiety
• anger
• impulse to control the outcome
• when cause & effect is only obvious in hindsight
• when you sense that agile planning will identify fewer than 50% of
your stories
• when the problem you’re facing doesn’t respond well to planning
• your plans dramatically change based on which next steps you choose
• you can’t plan away risk
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
experiments & stories
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
we do not control uncertainty.
we interact with it.
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
we experiment.
knowledgeguesses
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
lean startup with problem validation
frame
problems
measure
effectiveness
learn
ideas
build
product
measuring your
hypothesis
against results
is not an excuse
for renaming
lazy failures as
“experiments.”
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
Principle: Iterate from vague idea to finished product,
learning, making course corrections and improving quality as you go
iterating
toward an
uncertain idea
Source: Jeff Patton
how do we build complex software?
incrementing
toward a
fully-formed idea
uncertain
certain
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
in summary
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
• green problems are fundamentally different than
blue problems
• when you don’t have control over the outcome,
have confidence in the process
• good experiments replace uncertainty and fear
with knowledge and confidence
remember
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
about veracity
Veracity helps leaders and makers of software to solve
critical challenges in the areas of product strategy, design,
user experience and development.
Companies like GE Healthcare and Microsoft rely on Veracity
for leadership, mentoring and hands-on expertise to:
• supplement internal teams,
• accelerate product development, stability and performance,
• shorten time-to-market,
• increase ROI, and
• uplift product, team and organizational success.
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
your challenges
unclear
strategy
risk of
missing
deadlines
inferior
user
experience
expand to
new
platform
launch a
new
product
unstable
product
poorly
performing
team
EVENT
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
our services
strengthen strategy, architecture, UX, agility
solve tough software problems together
help deliver stable, reliable software
CONFIDENTIAL © 2016
For more information…
contact us to set up an exploratory
discussion, or to learn about our
innovation and discovery workshops
1.844.615.1074
info@veracitysolutions.com
veracitysolutions.com

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Veracity Embracing Uncertainty

  • 1. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 how to lead, design and code through the unknown uncertainty
  • 2. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 nice to meet you. galen murdock software executive software architect ux designer agile coach ceo,
  • 3. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 fear? control? embrace experiment with confidence accept what’s unknown practice awarenessuncertainty
  • 4. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 fear? control? embrace experiment with confidence accept what’s unknown practice awarenessuncertainty
  • 5. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 stimulus responseII Between stimulus and response there is a space. In that space is our power to choose our response. In our response lies our growth and our freedom. --Viktor E. Frankl
  • 6. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 rider Rational Remembering self Slow, Effortful, Analytical WITH self-awareness or control Often listens just to Elephant (Lazy) Makes decisions Easily exhausted elephant Emotional Experiencing self Fast, Automatic, Intuitive WITHOUT self-awareness or control “What you see is all there is” (Narrow view) Delivers updates Energetic
  • 7. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 mindfulness awareness of present experience with acceptance emotional agility 1. recognize your feelings 2. name your feelings 3. accept them 4. act according to your values
  • 8. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 fear? control? embrace experiment with confidence accept what’s unknown practice awarenessuncertainty
  • 9. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 Complicated Plans, MRDs, PRDs, Specs what we’ve been trained to do Detailed Estimates, Long-range budgets Extensive engineering, Intricate design.
  • 10. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 “Don’t manage uncertainty with methods designed for certainty.” Dr. David Snowden Uncertainty Expert Creator of Cynefin
  • 11. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 I can't control if we are going to win. I can control whether we do the right things. Marcio Sicoli Olympic Coach to Kerri Walsh Jennings & April Ross
  • 12. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 complex complicated obvious chaotic guess & learn entrepreneur analyze engineer follow rules bureaucrat take action firefighter uncertainty (a.k.a. cynefin) cause/effect is obvious cause/effect is obvious to an expert cause/effect is only obvious in hindsight there is no cause/effect
  • 13. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 The quest for certainty blocks the search for meaning. Uncertainty is the very condition to impel man to unfold his powers. Erich Fromm
  • 14. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 fear? control? embrace experiment with confidence accept what’s unknown practice awarenessuncertainty
  • 15. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 Creating an awesome product is hard Foresee 20% of features Foresee 50% of features Foresee 80% of features Agile works well Agile at limits Agile breaks down Innovation -Driven Plan- Driven Design- Driven
  • 17. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 what if each feature were marked green or blue? chaos complex complicated obvious http://cognitive-edge.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-SrumDays-Warsaw.pdf
  • 18. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 how to recognize uncertainty • often when you have a strong emotional reaction • fear of the unknown • anxiety • anger • impulse to control the outcome • when cause & effect is only obvious in hindsight • when you sense that agile planning will identify fewer than 50% of your stories • when the problem you’re facing doesn’t respond well to planning • your plans dramatically change based on which next steps you choose • you can’t plan away risk
  • 20. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 we do not control uncertainty. we interact with it.
  • 21. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 we experiment. knowledgeguesses
  • 22. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 lean startup with problem validation frame problems measure effectiveness learn ideas build product measuring your hypothesis against results is not an excuse for renaming lazy failures as “experiments.”
  • 23. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 Principle: Iterate from vague idea to finished product, learning, making course corrections and improving quality as you go iterating toward an uncertain idea Source: Jeff Patton how do we build complex software? incrementing toward a fully-formed idea uncertain certain
  • 25. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 • green problems are fundamentally different than blue problems • when you don’t have control over the outcome, have confidence in the process • good experiments replace uncertainty and fear with knowledge and confidence remember
  • 26. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 about veracity Veracity helps leaders and makers of software to solve critical challenges in the areas of product strategy, design, user experience and development. Companies like GE Healthcare and Microsoft rely on Veracity for leadership, mentoring and hands-on expertise to: • supplement internal teams, • accelerate product development, stability and performance, • shorten time-to-market, • increase ROI, and • uplift product, team and organizational success.
  • 27. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 your challenges unclear strategy risk of missing deadlines inferior user experience expand to new platform launch a new product unstable product poorly performing team EVENT
  • 28. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 our services strengthen strategy, architecture, UX, agility solve tough software problems together help deliver stable, reliable software
  • 29. CONFIDENTIAL © 2016 For more information… contact us to set up an exploratory discussion, or to learn about our innovation and discovery workshops 1.844.615.1074 info@veracitysolutions.com veracitysolutions.com

Editor's Notes

  1. Hundreds of products for hundreds of software companies
  2. States and responses
  3. States and responses
  4. It’s like there’s a part of us that feels emotion, and a part of us that thinks. Let’s see how easy it is to control. Are we just rational creatures, or is there something more going on?
  5. Learn the signs of when your Elephant is overreacting, like when you’re tired or angry. Willpower == Rider tugging on the reigns of the elephant. The Rider can’t win a tug-of-war with a huge animal for long. He simply gets exhausted. Filter == Rider steering the elephant carefully through a delicate path. Filter goes away with little sleep, or when under the influence. Analysis Paralysis == when the Rider’s trying to do all the work Elephant can be trained, but it takes a long time and lots of repetition before something becomes automatic and unconscious. Psychologists say our automatic processes generate thousands of thoughts and images every day, often through random association. Don’t personalize it as “you" intentionally feeling and responding. This helps debunk the Freudian notion of a dark and evil unconscious mind.
  6. The goal of meditation.
  7. States and responses
  8. Most of our corporate and technical training is focused on controlling and ensuring the outcome during mission-critical projects. We create business plans, budgets, designs, and estimates as though we can predict the future. And we’re right often enough to make us think that planning is the best way to approach the unknown. When we're faced with extreme uncertainty, we have a tendency to over-analyze and over-plan, and then wonder why our budgets are over-run and products are overdue. https://4mothers1blog.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/files20in20pile.jpg http://www.fileflash.com/graphics/screens/ejs_treegrid_gantt_chart-312646.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QyXBAmACTNg/U8JiKuf_axI/AAAAAAAAKs4/fHNM3bklmB4/s1600/1.png
  9. Kerri Walsh Jennings, April Ross – 3 gold medals, likely soon to be 4 Marcio Sicoli, their Olympic Coach "I can't control if we are going to win. I can control if we do the right things." Marcio Sicoli  NBC commentator during wrap-up at end of broadcast for Olympic Beach Volleyball match between USA and China, 8-8-2016 10:45pm mountain
  10. States and responses
  11. Product Launch is an ordered process to manage unordered problems (green) and ordered problems (blue)
  12. Product Launch is an ordered process to manage unordered problems (green) and ordered problems (blue)
  13. Or epic, or user story
  14. There are patterns to this.