Uploaded byYves Hanoulle
No estimates2015
#NoEstimates is a movement emphasizing the limitations of traditional estimation methods in software projects, arguing that estimates often fail to predict actual outcomes accurately. It proposes a strategy for managing project work by focusing on smaller, risk-neutral tasks rather than relying on potentially flawed estimates. The document highlights the challenges of estimating within software development and encourages workshops to explore experiences and lessons learned from practicing #NoEstimates.
More Related Content
More from Yves Hanoulle
No estimates2015
- 1.
- 2. #NoEstimates What’s in thename? Why not ? #BeyondEstimates #BetterPrediction 2
- 3.
- 4. How good canYOU estimate? 4
- 5. In 1986, Profs.S.D. Conte, H.E. Dunsmoir, and V.Y. Shen proposed that a good estimation approach should provide estimates that are within 25% of the actual results 75% of the time --Steve McConnel, Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art 5
- 6. Who has delivereda project ? - on time - within budget - what was requested within 25% 6
- 7. Who has delivered7,5 out of 10 projects? - on time - within budget - what was requested within 25% 7
- 8.
- 9. How long doyou think it will take them to distributed 9
- 11.
- 12.
- 13.
- 14.
- 15.
- 16. have a largerange 16
- 17. between 5 seconds &10 minutes 17
- 18.
- 19. chaos report 19 80% Late orFailed Source: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell
- 20. chaos report 20 Source: SoftwareEstimation by Steve McConnell The larger the project, the bigger the problem
- 21.
- 22.
- 23. 23 cone of uncertainty notscientific
- 24.
- 25.
- 26.
- 27.
- 28.
- 29. who wins acontract bidding?
- 31. Why do wehave budgets?
- 32. this is ourbudget budget
- 33.
- 34.
- 35. budget situation 2 cost you overestimated. Next year you will only get 80% of your requested budget saving
- 36. budget situation 2 year+1 cost let’s spend this
- 37.
- 38. budget situation 3: A cost extrabudget requested rejected !! X
- 39. budget situation 3: A cost extrabudget requested rejected !! I hope you delivered in small chunks X
- 40. budget situation 3: B cost extrabudget requested Approved. Please estimate better next time.
- 41. budget situation 3: year+1 Let’s ask for 120% too avoid the risk of being rejected.
- 42. budget needed budget let’s spend this 12 Why do we have budgets? budget budget 3a 3b
- 43. Controlling costs makes costhigher John Seddon .hanoulle.be/2010/07/john-seddon-why-controlling-costs-makes-c
- 44.
- 45. The point of story pointswas to obscure time @RonJeffries
- 46. Story of ateam 46
- 52. #NoEstimates RegularEstimates “The chart isa snapshot of one team of 20+ teams over a 2 year period.” – Cory Foy
- 53.
- 54. it’s NOT justme 54 join @Duarte_Vasco on http://bit.ly/NoEstimatesProjects DB
- 55. let me repeat 55 #NoEstimateshas a same or better prediction then estimates
- 56. Estimates assume weare in an Ordered Domain, where reductionism works. Software however is in the Complex and Complicated domain where reductionism does not work. #NoEstimates
- 57. rules of #NoEstimates 1.Select the most important piece of work you need to do 2. Break that work down into risk neutral pieces of work 3. Develop each piece of work 4. Iterate and refactor 5. ( Count for predictability )
- 58.
- 59. workshop create 4 groupsof around 10 people
- 60. imaging 17 September2016 you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while. What have you learned? workshop
- 61. 61 workshop What did notwork? What were the challenges? What worked? What were the advantages? imaging 17 September 2016 you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while. What have you learned?
- 62. 62 workshopimaging 17 September2016 you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while. What have you learned? What did not work? What were the challenges? What worked? What were the advantages?
- 63. 63 workshoppick a side -what you prefer - what you disagree with - to make it even.. What did not work? What were the challenges? What worked? What were the advantages?
- 64. 64 workshoplet’s discuss Team redstarts with an argumentTeam green replies
- 65.
- 66. #NoEstimates book http://noestimatesbook.com http://j.mp/NoEstimatesBook_Yves_Discount >>37 % discount till noon tomorrow
- 67. @YvesHanoulle your company? Available from 1/10/2015 http://j.mp/NoEstimatesBook_Yves_Discount >>37 % discount till noon tomorrow