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#NoEstimates
@YvesHanoulle
1
#NoEstimates
What’s in the name?
Why not ?
#BeyondEstimates
#BetterPrediction
2
WHY
#NoEstimates
?
3
How good can YOU
estimate?
4
In 1986, Profs. S.D. Conte, H.E. Dunsmoir, and V.Y.
Shen proposed that a good estimation approach
should provide estimates...
Who has delivered a project ?
- on time
- within budget
- what was requested
within 25%
6
Who has delivered 7,5 out of 10 projects?
- on time
- within budget
- what was requested
within 25%
7
I need two
volunteers
8
How long do you think it
will take them to distributed
9
timekeeper?
11
START !
12
result?
13
my prediction
14
15
have a large range
16
between
5 seconds & 10 minutes
17
chaos report
18
chaos report
19
80% Late
or Failed
Source: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell
chaos report
20
Source: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell
The larger the project,
the bigger the
problem
21
cone of uncertainty
22
cone of uncertainty
23
cone of uncertainty
not scientific
BIAS
24
BIAS
25
BIAS
26
WHY
do we
estimate?
contracts
who wins a contract
bidding?
Why do we have
budgets?
this is our budget
budget
budget
situation 1
cost
thank
you
budget
situation 2
cost
saving
budget
situation 2
cost
you over estimated. Next year
you will only get 80% of your
requested budget
saving
budget
situation 2 year +1
cost
let’s spend this
budget
situation 3
cost
extra budget
requested
budget
situation 3: A
cost
extra budget
requested
rejected !!
X
budget
situation 3: A
cost
extra budget
requested
rejected !!
I hope you delivered in small
chunks
X
budget
situation 3: B
cost
extra budget
requested
Approved. Please estimate
better next time.
budget
situation 3: year +1
Let’s ask for 120% too avoid the
risk of being rejected.
budget
needed
budget
let’s spend this
1 2
Why do we have
budgets?
budget
budget
3a 3b
Controlling costs makes
cost higher
John Seddon
.hanoulle.be/2010/07/john-seddon-why-controlling-costs-makes-c
what about
story points?
The point
of story
points was
to obscure
time
@RonJeffries
Story of a team
46
#NoEstimates
RegularEstimates
“The chart is a snapshot of one team of 20+ teams over a 2 year period.” – Cory Foy
Which is more
predictable
?
it’s NOT just me
54
join @Duarte_Vasco on
http://bit.ly/NoEstimatesProjects
DB
let me repeat
55
#NoEstimates has a
same or better prediction
then estimates
Estimates assume we are in an Ordered Domain, where
reductionism works. Software however is in the Complex
and Complicated...
rules of #NoEstimates
1. Select the most important piece of work you need to do
2. Break that work down into risk neutral ...
workshop
workshop
create 4 groups of around 10 people
imaging 17 September 2016
you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while.
What have you learned?
workshop
61
workshop
What did not work?
What were the challenges?
What worked?
What were the advantages?
imaging 17 September 2016
...
62
workshopimaging 17 September 2016
you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while.
What have you learned?
What did not wor...
63
workshoppick a side
- what you prefer
- what you disagree with
- to make it even..
What did not work?
What were the cha...
64
workshoplet’s discuss
Team red starts with an argumentTeam green replies
65
workshopVOTE
#NoEstimates book
http://noestimatesbook.com
http://j.mp/NoEstimatesBook_Yves_Discount >> 37 % discount till noon tomorrow
@YvesHanoulle
your company?
Available from
1/10/2015
http://j.mp/NoEstimatesBook_Yves_Discount
>> 37 % discount till noon ...
No estimates2015
No estimates2015
No estimates2015
No estimates2015
No estimates2015
No estimates2015
No estimates2015
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No estimates2015

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This are the slides from the workshop I delivered to the agile consortium Belgium on 17 September 2015

Published in: Economy & Finance
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No estimates2015

  1. 1. #NoEstimates @YvesHanoulle 1
  2. 2. #NoEstimates What’s in the name? Why not ? #BeyondEstimates #BetterPrediction 2
  3. 3. WHY #NoEstimates ? 3
  4. 4. How good can YOU estimate? 4
  5. 5. In 1986, Profs. S.D. Conte, H.E. Dunsmoir, and V.Y. Shen proposed that a good estimation approach should provide estimates that are within 25% of the actual results 75% of the time --Steve McConnel, Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art 5
  6. 6. Who has delivered a project ? - on time - within budget - what was requested within 25% 6
  7. 7. Who has delivered 7,5 out of 10 projects? - on time - within budget - what was requested within 25% 7
  8. 8. I need two volunteers 8
  9. 9. How long do you think it will take them to distributed 9
  10. 10. timekeeper? 11
  11. 11. START ! 12
  12. 12. result? 13
  13. 13. my prediction 14
  14. 14. 15
  15. 15. have a large range 16
  16. 16. between 5 seconds & 10 minutes 17
  17. 17. chaos report 18
  18. 18. chaos report 19 80% Late or Failed Source: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell
  19. 19. chaos report 20 Source: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell The larger the project, the bigger the problem
  20. 20. 21 cone of uncertainty
  21. 21. 22 cone of uncertainty
  22. 22. 23 cone of uncertainty not scientific
  23. 23. BIAS 24
  24. 24. BIAS 25
  25. 25. BIAS 26
  26. 26. WHY do we estimate?
  27. 27. contracts
  28. 28. who wins a contract bidding?
  29. 29. Why do we have budgets?
  30. 30. this is our budget budget
  31. 31. budget situation 1 cost thank you
  32. 32. budget situation 2 cost saving
  33. 33. budget situation 2 cost you over estimated. Next year you will only get 80% of your requested budget saving
  34. 34. budget situation 2 year +1 cost let’s spend this
  35. 35. budget situation 3 cost extra budget requested
  36. 36. budget situation 3: A cost extra budget requested rejected !! X
  37. 37. budget situation 3: A cost extra budget requested rejected !! I hope you delivered in small chunks X
  38. 38. budget situation 3: B cost extra budget requested Approved. Please estimate better next time.
  39. 39. budget situation 3: year +1 Let’s ask for 120% too avoid the risk of being rejected.
  40. 40. budget needed budget let’s spend this 1 2 Why do we have budgets? budget budget 3a 3b
  41. 41. Controlling costs makes cost higher John Seddon .hanoulle.be/2010/07/john-seddon-why-controlling-costs-makes-c
  42. 42. what about story points?
  43. 43. The point of story points was to obscure time @RonJeffries
  44. 44. Story of a team 46
  45. 45. #NoEstimates RegularEstimates “The chart is a snapshot of one team of 20+ teams over a 2 year period.” – Cory Foy
  46. 46. Which is more predictable ?
  47. 47. it’s NOT just me 54 join @Duarte_Vasco on http://bit.ly/NoEstimatesProjects DB
  48. 48. let me repeat 55 #NoEstimates has a same or better prediction then estimates
  49. 49. Estimates assume we are in an Ordered Domain, where reductionism works. Software however is in the Complex and Complicated domain where reductionism does not work. #NoEstimates
  50. 50. rules of #NoEstimates 1. Select the most important piece of work you need to do 2. Break that work down into risk neutral pieces of work 3. Develop each piece of work 4. Iterate and refactor 5. ( Count for predictability )
  51. 51. workshop
  52. 52. workshop create 4 groups of around 10 people
  53. 53. imaging 17 September 2016 you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while. What have you learned? workshop
  54. 54. 61 workshop What did not work? What were the challenges? What worked? What were the advantages? imaging 17 September 2016 you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while. What have you learned?
  55. 55. 62 workshopimaging 17 September 2016 you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while. What have you learned? What did not work? What were the challenges? What worked? What were the advantages?
  56. 56. 63 workshoppick a side - what you prefer - what you disagree with - to make it even.. What did not work? What were the challenges? What worked? What were the advantages?
  57. 57. 64 workshoplet’s discuss Team red starts with an argumentTeam green replies
  58. 58. 65 workshopVOTE
  59. 59. #NoEstimates book http://noestimatesbook.com http://j.mp/NoEstimatesBook_Yves_Discount >> 37 % discount till noon tomorrow
  60. 60. @YvesHanoulle your company? Available from 1/10/2015 http://j.mp/NoEstimatesBook_Yves_Discount >> 37 % discount till noon tomorrow

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