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No estimates2015

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This are the slides from the workshop I delivered to the agile consortium Belgium on 17 September 2015

Published in: Economy & Finance
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No estimates2015

  1. 1. #NoEstimates @YvesHanoulle 1
  2. 2. #NoEstimates What’s in the name? Why not ? #BeyondEstimates #BetterPrediction 2
  3. 3. WHY #NoEstimates ? 3
  4. 4. How good can YOU estimate? 4
  5. 5. In 1986, Profs. S.D. Conte, H.E. Dunsmoir, and V.Y. Shen proposed that a good estimation approach should provide estimates that are within 25% of the actual results 75% of the time --Steve McConnel, Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art 5
  6. 6. Who has delivered a project ? - on time - within budget - what was requested within 25% 6
  7. 7. Who has delivered 7,5 out of 10 projects? - on time - within budget - what was requested within 25% 7
  8. 8. I need two volunteers 8
  9. 9. How long do you think it will take them to distributed 9
  10. 10. timekeeper? 11
  11. 11. START ! 12
  12. 12. result? 13
  13. 13. my prediction 14
  14. 14. 15
  15. 15. have a large range 16
  16. 16. between 5 seconds & 10 minutes 17
  17. 17. chaos report 18
  18. 18. chaos report 19 80% Late or Failed Source: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell
  19. 19. chaos report 20 Source: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell The larger the project, the bigger the problem
  20. 20. 21 cone of uncertainty
  21. 21. 22 cone of uncertainty
  22. 22. 23 cone of uncertainty not scientific
  23. 23. BIAS 24
  24. 24. BIAS 25
  25. 25. BIAS 26
  26. 26. WHY do we estimate?
  27. 27. contracts
  28. 28. who wins a contract bidding?
  29. 29. Why do we have budgets?
  30. 30. this is our budget budget
  31. 31. budget situation 1 cost thank you
  32. 32. budget situation 2 cost saving
  33. 33. budget situation 2 cost you over estimated. Next year you will only get 80% of your requested budget saving
  34. 34. budget situation 2 year +1 cost let’s spend this
  35. 35. budget situation 3 cost extra budget requested
  36. 36. budget situation 3: A cost extra budget requested rejected !! X
  37. 37. budget situation 3: A cost extra budget requested rejected !! I hope you delivered in small chunks X
  38. 38. budget situation 3: B cost extra budget requested Approved. Please estimate better next time.
  39. 39. budget situation 3: year +1 Let’s ask for 120% too avoid the risk of being rejected.
  40. 40. budget needed budget let’s spend this 1 2 Why do we have budgets? budget budget 3a 3b
  41. 41. Controlling costs makes cost higher John Seddon .hanoulle.be/2010/07/john-seddon-why-controlling-costs-makes-c
  42. 42. what about story points?
  43. 43. The point of story points was to obscure time @RonJeffries
  44. 44. Story of a team 46
  45. 45. #NoEstimates RegularEstimates “The chart is a snapshot of one team of 20+ teams over a 2 year period.” – Cory Foy
  46. 46. Which is more predictable ?
  47. 47. it’s NOT just me 54 join @Duarte_Vasco on http://bit.ly/NoEstimatesProjects DB
  48. 48. let me repeat 55 #NoEstimates has a same or better prediction then estimates
  49. 49. Estimates assume we are in an Ordered Domain, where reductionism works. Software however is in the Complex and Complicated domain where reductionism does not work. #NoEstimates
  50. 50. rules of #NoEstimates 1. Select the most important piece of work you need to do 2. Break that work down into risk neutral pieces of work 3. Develop each piece of work 4. Iterate and refactor 5. ( Count for predictability )
  51. 51. workshop
  52. 52. workshop create 4 groups of around 10 people
  53. 53. imaging 17 September 2016 you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while. What have you learned? workshop
  54. 54. 61 workshop What did not work? What were the challenges? What worked? What were the advantages? imaging 17 September 2016 you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while. What have you learned?
  55. 55. 62 workshopimaging 17 September 2016 you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while. What have you learned? What did not work? What were the challenges? What worked? What were the advantages?
  56. 56. 63 workshoppick a side - what you prefer - what you disagree with - to make it even.. What did not work? What were the challenges? What worked? What were the advantages?
  57. 57. 64 workshoplet’s discuss Team red starts with an argumentTeam green replies
  58. 58. 65 workshopVOTE
  59. 59. #NoEstimates book http://noestimatesbook.com http://j.mp/NoEstimatesBook_Yves_Discount >> 37 % discount till noon tomorrow
  60. 60. @YvesHanoulle your company? Available from 1/10/2015 http://j.mp/NoEstimatesBook_Yves_Discount >> 37 % discount till noon tomorrow

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