SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Using SPC to Make Better
 Management Decisions
          Mark Graban
      Author, Lean Hospitals
   Co-Author, Healthcare Kaizen
     www.MarkGraban.com
         @MarkGraban
Key Management Questions
• How are we performing?
   – Are we getting better or worse?
• What action should we take?



“Failure to understand variation is a
central problem of management.”
   – Dr. Lloyd S. Nelson                Some rights reserved by Marco Bellucci
My Most Favorite Book Ever




                 Donald J. Wheeler, PhD
               http://www.spcpress.com/
“No data have meaning
apart from their context”
Comparisons in the News


                     Fatalities per 100 Million Vehicle
                        Miles Traveled (U.S. & CT)
                2
                                     U.S.
               1.5

                1
                                CT
               0.5

                0
                 1992    1995    1998   2001   2004   2007   2010
Need to Look for Trends
“You don't want to
make a big conclusion
based on just one
year.”
  – Jonathan Adkins of the
    Governors Highway Safety
    Association
                               “Office Space”
Two-Point Comparisons in Politics
Did We Improve?
Run Charts Show More Context
Need to Avoid Bad Conclusions
    “The average patient satisfaction
      increased from 87.2 to 89%”
A Better Dashboard




Limited information you need to make decisions
Not This…
Overwhelming Data

                                Sept „06


                                  ?

               Can we predict
               September?


      Can We See Trends?
The Good News…


There is a better way
SD = Standard Deviation, a measure of variation
                                               “X” Control Chart
                                          (Chart for Individual Values)




                                                                          Goal = 25 minutes
             “Every system is perfectly designed to
               get the results it gets.” (Deming)
X and MR Chart Combo
Small Business Example
           Revenue as a Stable Process?

X chart




MR chart
Deming‟s 7 Concepts of Variation
1. All variation is caused – specific reasons.
2. There are 4 types of causes:
  1.   Common causes
  2.   Special causes
  3.   Tampering
  4.   Structural
3. Managers must distinguish amongst these
  – Each one requires different managerial actions.
Deming‟s 7 Concepts of Variation
4. For special causes, get timely data
5. For common causes, all data are relevant.
  – In-depth knowledge of the process being improved is
    needed – statistics, flow charts, Pareto, stratification
    analysis, DOE
6. When all variation is common cause, the system
   is said to be “stable” and “predictable.”
7. SPC limits let a manager predict future
   performance with some confidence.
The Funnel Experiment
• Lloyd Nelson, 1987
  – Suspend a funnel on a stand a
    few inches off the ground
  – Drop 50 marbles
                                    x
A “Stable” System
• Does NOT mean:
  – Zero variability
  – System meets customer
    requirements

• Means only:
  – Causes of variation are basically constant over time
We Have to Try Harder!!!
• 4 different rules for adjusting the funnel
                                  Adjust relative             Adjust relative
       No adjustment              to last position              to center




   Learn more – online simulator at http://www.symphonytech.com/dfunnel.htm
So we should do
    nothing?
“Don’t just do something,
  stand there.” -- Deming
Responding to Daily Changes
60                         Daily Production Average
50         Praise                         PT                                            PT
40
           Team                                                                                                        GOAL
30
                        Kick                                                  KB
20                      Butt                                                                                KB
10

 0
               Are we helping? Is this process stable?
      3/1/07


               3/2/07


                        3/3/07


                                 3/4/07


                                          3/5/07


                                                   3/6/07


                                                            3/7/07


                                                                     3/8/07


                                                                               3/9/07


                                                                                        3/10/07


                                                                                                  3/11/07


                                                                                                             3/12/07
0
                10
                           20
                                           30
                                                40
                                                     50
 3/1/2007                                                           60




 3/3/2007


 3/5/2007


 3/7/2007
                     Lower Control Limit
                                                          Upper Control Limit




 3/9/2007


3/11/2007


3/13/2007


3/15/2007


3/17/2007
                                                                                Creating a Control Chart




3/19/2007
Step 1: Initial Data
• Generally need 20 data
  points to calculate
  control limits
Step 2: Mean & MRs
• Calculate mean of the
  first 20 points
• Calculate the moving
  range of the first 20
  points
   – Ex: =ABS(E5-E4)
Step 3: Draw Initial Chart
                       (with Mean line)
                                LeanBlog.org Daily Page Loads
2500



2000



1500



1000



 500



   0
       1   2   3    4   5   6    7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
Step 4: Add Control Limits
• Calculate “MR-bar”
   – Average of the 1st 19
     MRs
• Calculate Control Limits
   – LCL = Mean – 3*(MR bar)/1.126
   – UCL = Mean + 3*(MR bar)/1.126
Step 5: Review Chart
                               LeanBlog.org Daily Page Loads
2500



2000



1500



1000



 500
                                                                     Special Cause?
   0
       1   2   3   4   5   6    7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
Step 6: Revise Limits
Step 7: Evaluate Over Time
                                 LeanBlog.org Daily Page Loads
3000


2500


2000


1500


1000


500


   0
       1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051
Step 7: Evaluate Over Time
                                 LeanBlog.org Daily Page Loads
3000


2500


2000


1500


1000


500


   0
       1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051
Step 7: Shift the Limits
                                 LeanBlog.org Daily Page Loads
3000


2500


2000


1500


1000


500


   0
       1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051
“Western Electric” Rules (1956)
• 8 consecutive points on same side of mean

• 6 consecutive points moving same direction

• 14 alternating up/down points in a row

• Any single point above or below 3-sigma LCL or UCL

   – Full rules  http://bit.ly/WErules
Process Shifts
           35
           35
                                                       Daily TAT
           30
           30                                                                                                                                       Process Shift
           25
           25
           20
           20
           15
           15
           10
           10
            5
            5
            0
                1

                    4

                        7

                            10 10

                                    13 13

                                            16 16

                                                    19 19

                                                            22 22

                                                                    25 25

                                                                            28 28

                                                                                    31 31

                                                                                            34 34

                                                                                                    37 37

                                                                                                            40 40

                                                                                                                    43 43

                                                                                                                            46 46

                                                                                                                                    49 49

                                                                                                                                            52 52
            0
                1

                    4

                        7




• If you made a change that you expected to improve the
  system, use a control chart to test the hypothesis
Long-Term Process Shifts
NOT Understanding Variation Leads To…
• Pressuring people to get better results by
  working harder within the same system
• Wasting time looking for explanations of a
  perceived trend when nothing has
  changed
• Taking other actions when it would have
  been better to do nothing
• Not focusing on systemic improvements
Isn’t it always the system?


It’s (almost) always the system.
Q&A / Contact Info
• Email:
   – mark@constancy.us
• Blog:
   – www.leanblog.org
• Twitter:
   – @MarkGraban
• Books:
   – www.LeanHospitalsBook.com
   – www.HCkaizen.com

More Related Content

What's hot

DDDオンライン勉強会#2 「集約・境界付けられたコンテキスト」
DDDオンライン勉強会#2 「集約・境界付けられたコンテキスト」 DDDオンライン勉強会#2 「集約・境界付けられたコンテキスト」
DDDオンライン勉強会#2 「集約・境界付けられたコンテキスト」
Koichiro Matsuoka
 
Software cost estimation
Software cost estimationSoftware cost estimation
Software cost estimation
Dr. C.V. Suresh Babu
 
Selection of an appropriate project approach
Selection of an appropriate project approachSelection of an appropriate project approach
Selection of an appropriate project approach
tumetr1
 
Software Project Management: Risk Management
Software Project Management: Risk ManagementSoftware Project Management: Risk Management
Software Project Management: Risk Management
Minhas Kamal
 
The Power of Simple: Whats New in BMC Control-M 8
The Power of Simple: Whats New in BMC Control-M 8The Power of Simple: Whats New in BMC Control-M 8
The Power of Simple: Whats New in BMC Control-M 8
BMC Software
 
.NET 7 での ASP.NET Core Blazor の新機能ピックアップ
.NET 7 での ASP.NET Core Blazor の新機能ピックアップ.NET 7 での ASP.NET Core Blazor の新機能ピックアップ
.NET 7 での ASP.NET Core Blazor の新機能ピックアップ
一希 大田
 
Introduction to XAML and WPF
Introduction to XAML and WPFIntroduction to XAML and WPF
Introduction to XAML and WPFDoncho Minkov
 
Redmine issue assign notice plugin の紹介
Redmine issue assign notice plugin の紹介Redmine issue assign notice plugin の紹介
Redmine issue assign notice plugin の紹介
onozaty
 
毎日が越境だ!
毎日が越境だ!毎日が越境だ!
毎日が越境だ!
増田 亨
 
Software project estimation
Software project estimationSoftware project estimation
Software project estimation
inayat khan
 
20221226_TITECH_lecture_ishizaki_public.pdf
20221226_TITECH_lecture_ishizaki_public.pdf20221226_TITECH_lecture_ishizaki_public.pdf
20221226_TITECH_lecture_ishizaki_public.pdf
Kazuaki Ishizaki
 
Spm project planning
Spm project planning Spm project planning
Spm project planning
Kanchana Devi
 
Projet security et datawarehouse
Projet security et datawarehouseProjet security et datawarehouse
Projet security et datawarehouse
omri med
 
Reverse engineering
Reverse  engineeringReverse  engineering
Reverse engineeringYuffie Valen
 
技術選定をしてみたというお話
技術選定をしてみたというお話技術選定をしてみたというお話
技術選定をしてみたというお話
ssuser000144
 
ユニットテストを意識して安心しよう
ユニットテストを意識して安心しようユニットテストを意識して安心しよう
ユニットテストを意識して安心しよう
Yuta Matsumura
 
Requirement Analysis - Software Enigneering
Requirement Analysis - Software EnigneeringRequirement Analysis - Software Enigneering
Requirement Analysis - Software Enigneering
university of education,Lahore
 
Docker presentation | Paris Docker Meetup
Docker presentation | Paris Docker MeetupDocker presentation | Paris Docker Meetup
Docker presentation | Paris Docker Meetup
dotCloud
 
OSSNA18: Xen Beginners Training
OSSNA18: Xen Beginners Training OSSNA18: Xen Beginners Training
OSSNA18: Xen Beginners Training
The Linux Foundation
 
Software estimation
Software estimationSoftware estimation
Software estimationMd Shakir
 

What's hot (20)

DDDオンライン勉強会#2 「集約・境界付けられたコンテキスト」
DDDオンライン勉強会#2 「集約・境界付けられたコンテキスト」 DDDオンライン勉強会#2 「集約・境界付けられたコンテキスト」
DDDオンライン勉強会#2 「集約・境界付けられたコンテキスト」
 
Software cost estimation
Software cost estimationSoftware cost estimation
Software cost estimation
 
Selection of an appropriate project approach
Selection of an appropriate project approachSelection of an appropriate project approach
Selection of an appropriate project approach
 
Software Project Management: Risk Management
Software Project Management: Risk ManagementSoftware Project Management: Risk Management
Software Project Management: Risk Management
 
The Power of Simple: Whats New in BMC Control-M 8
The Power of Simple: Whats New in BMC Control-M 8The Power of Simple: Whats New in BMC Control-M 8
The Power of Simple: Whats New in BMC Control-M 8
 
.NET 7 での ASP.NET Core Blazor の新機能ピックアップ
.NET 7 での ASP.NET Core Blazor の新機能ピックアップ.NET 7 での ASP.NET Core Blazor の新機能ピックアップ
.NET 7 での ASP.NET Core Blazor の新機能ピックアップ
 
Introduction to XAML and WPF
Introduction to XAML and WPFIntroduction to XAML and WPF
Introduction to XAML and WPF
 
Redmine issue assign notice plugin の紹介
Redmine issue assign notice plugin の紹介Redmine issue assign notice plugin の紹介
Redmine issue assign notice plugin の紹介
 
毎日が越境だ!
毎日が越境だ!毎日が越境だ!
毎日が越境だ!
 
Software project estimation
Software project estimationSoftware project estimation
Software project estimation
 
20221226_TITECH_lecture_ishizaki_public.pdf
20221226_TITECH_lecture_ishizaki_public.pdf20221226_TITECH_lecture_ishizaki_public.pdf
20221226_TITECH_lecture_ishizaki_public.pdf
 
Spm project planning
Spm project planning Spm project planning
Spm project planning
 
Projet security et datawarehouse
Projet security et datawarehouseProjet security et datawarehouse
Projet security et datawarehouse
 
Reverse engineering
Reverse  engineeringReverse  engineering
Reverse engineering
 
技術選定をしてみたというお話
技術選定をしてみたというお話技術選定をしてみたというお話
技術選定をしてみたというお話
 
ユニットテストを意識して安心しよう
ユニットテストを意識して安心しようユニットテストを意識して安心しよう
ユニットテストを意識して安心しよう
 
Requirement Analysis - Software Enigneering
Requirement Analysis - Software EnigneeringRequirement Analysis - Software Enigneering
Requirement Analysis - Software Enigneering
 
Docker presentation | Paris Docker Meetup
Docker presentation | Paris Docker MeetupDocker presentation | Paris Docker Meetup
Docker presentation | Paris Docker Meetup
 
OSSNA18: Xen Beginners Training
OSSNA18: Xen Beginners Training OSSNA18: Xen Beginners Training
OSSNA18: Xen Beginners Training
 
Software estimation
Software estimationSoftware estimation
Software estimation
 

Similar to Using SPC to Make Better Management Decisions

Mark Graban SHS 2014: Two Data Points Are Not a Trend: Using SPC to Manage Be...
Mark Graban SHS 2014: Two Data Points Are Not a Trend: Using SPC to Manage Be...Mark Graban SHS 2014: Two Data Points Are Not a Trend: Using SPC to Manage Be...
Mark Graban SHS 2014: Two Data Points Are Not a Trend: Using SPC to Manage Be...
Mark Graban
 
Quality Control PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Quality Control PowerPoint Presentation Slides Quality Control PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Quality Control PowerPoint Presentation Slides
SlideTeam
 
Tools Of Quality Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Tools Of Quality Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides Tools Of Quality Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Tools Of Quality Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
SlideTeam
 
1645 track2 short
1645 track2 short1645 track2 short
1645 track2 short
Rising Media, Inc.
 
Velocity is not the goal code palo-usa
Velocity is not the goal   code palo-usaVelocity is not the goal   code palo-usa
Velocity is not the goal code palo-usa
Doc Norton
 
Production and Quality Tools: Seven Quality Tools and Introduction to Statistics
Production and Quality Tools: Seven Quality Tools and Introduction to StatisticsProduction and Quality Tools: Seven Quality Tools and Introduction to Statistics
Production and Quality Tools: Seven Quality Tools and Introduction to Statistics
Dr. John V. Padua
 
Qc 7 tools
Qc 7 toolsQc 7 tools
7 QC Tools Presentation .pdf
7 QC Tools Presentation .pdf7 QC Tools Presentation .pdf
7 QC Tools Presentation .pdf
OlivierNgono
 
7 QC Tools Presentation -1.pdf
7 QC Tools Presentation -1.pdf7 QC Tools Presentation -1.pdf
7 QC Tools Presentation -1.pdf
OlivierNgono
 
Useful Tools for Problem Solving by Operational Excellence Consulting
Useful Tools for Problem Solving by Operational Excellence ConsultingUseful Tools for Problem Solving by Operational Excellence Consulting
Useful Tools for Problem Solving by Operational Excellence Consulting
Operational Excellence Consulting
 
Quality Assurance Tools PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Quality Assurance Tools PowerPoint Presentation Slides Quality Assurance Tools PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Quality Assurance Tools PowerPoint Presentation Slides
SlideTeam
 
Statistical quality control, sampling
Statistical quality control, samplingStatistical quality control, sampling
Statistical quality control, sampling
Sana Fatima
 
Pareto Charts
Pareto ChartsPareto Charts
Pareto Charts
Steven Bonacorsi
 
Pareto Charts
Pareto ChartsPareto Charts
Pareto Charts
Nat Evans
 
Pareto charts
Pareto chartsPareto charts
Pareto charts
Steven Bonacorsi
 
Measures of Success - Webinar
Measures of Success - WebinarMeasures of Success - Webinar
Measures of Success - Webinar
Mark Graban
 
Measures of Success: React Less, Lead Better, Improve More
Measures of Success: React Less, Lead Better, Improve MoreMeasures of Success: React Less, Lead Better, Improve More
Measures of Success: React Less, Lead Better, Improve More
Mark Graban
 

Similar to Using SPC to Make Better Management Decisions (20)

Mark Graban SHS 2014: Two Data Points Are Not a Trend: Using SPC to Manage Be...
Mark Graban SHS 2014: Two Data Points Are Not a Trend: Using SPC to Manage Be...Mark Graban SHS 2014: Two Data Points Are Not a Trend: Using SPC to Manage Be...
Mark Graban SHS 2014: Two Data Points Are Not a Trend: Using SPC to Manage Be...
 
Quality Control PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Quality Control PowerPoint Presentation Slides Quality Control PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Quality Control PowerPoint Presentation Slides
 
Tools Of Quality Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Tools Of Quality Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides Tools Of Quality Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Tools Of Quality Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides
 
1645 track2 short
1645 track2 short1645 track2 short
1645 track2 short
 
Velocity is not the goal code palo-usa
Velocity is not the goal   code palo-usaVelocity is not the goal   code palo-usa
Velocity is not the goal code palo-usa
 
Production and Quality Tools: Seven Quality Tools and Introduction to Statistics
Production and Quality Tools: Seven Quality Tools and Introduction to StatisticsProduction and Quality Tools: Seven Quality Tools and Introduction to Statistics
Production and Quality Tools: Seven Quality Tools and Introduction to Statistics
 
Qc 7 tools
Qc 7 toolsQc 7 tools
Qc 7 tools
 
7 QC Tools Presentation .pdf
7 QC Tools Presentation .pdf7 QC Tools Presentation .pdf
7 QC Tools Presentation .pdf
 
7 QC Tools Presentation -1.pdf
7 QC Tools Presentation -1.pdf7 QC Tools Presentation -1.pdf
7 QC Tools Presentation -1.pdf
 
Useful Tools for Problem Solving by Operational Excellence Consulting
Useful Tools for Problem Solving by Operational Excellence ConsultingUseful Tools for Problem Solving by Operational Excellence Consulting
Useful Tools for Problem Solving by Operational Excellence Consulting
 
Quality Assurance Tools PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Quality Assurance Tools PowerPoint Presentation Slides Quality Assurance Tools PowerPoint Presentation Slides
Quality Assurance Tools PowerPoint Presentation Slides
 
Statistical quality control, sampling
Statistical quality control, samplingStatistical quality control, sampling
Statistical quality control, sampling
 
Pareto Charts
Pareto ChartsPareto Charts
Pareto Charts
 
Pareto Charts
Pareto ChartsPareto Charts
Pareto Charts
 
Pareto charts
Pareto chartsPareto charts
Pareto charts
 
Pareto charts
Pareto chartsPareto charts
Pareto charts
 
Quality control tools
Quality control toolsQuality control tools
Quality control tools
 
Measures of Success - Webinar
Measures of Success - WebinarMeasures of Success - Webinar
Measures of Success - Webinar
 
Six sigma
Six sigmaSix sigma
Six sigma
 
Measures of Success: React Less, Lead Better, Improve More
Measures of Success: React Less, Lead Better, Improve MoreMeasures of Success: React Less, Lead Better, Improve More
Measures of Success: React Less, Lead Better, Improve More
 

More from Mark Graban

Our Favorite Mistakes: Creating a Culture of Learning from Mistakes
  Our Favorite Mistakes: Creating a Culture of Learning from Mistakes  Our Favorite Mistakes: Creating a Culture of Learning from Mistakes
Our Favorite Mistakes: Creating a Culture of Learning from Mistakes
Mark Graban
 
From Cop to Counselor 2020
From Cop to Counselor 2020From Cop to Counselor 2020
From Cop to Counselor 2020
Mark Graban
 
Improve Your Lean Management System With a Simple Chart
Improve Your Lean Management System With a Simple ChartImprove Your Lean Management System With a Simple Chart
Improve Your Lean Management System With a Simple Chart
Mark Graban
 
A Vision for Lean Healthcare
A Vision forLean HealthcareA Vision forLean Healthcare
A Vision for Lean Healthcare
Mark Graban
 
Today’s Effective Leader: Shifting From Cop to Coach and Counselor
Today’s Effective Leader: Shifting From Cop to Coach and CounselorToday’s Effective Leader: Shifting From Cop to Coach and Counselor
Today’s Effective Leader: Shifting From Cop to Coach and Counselor
Mark Graban
 
The Steps You Need to Take to Get Your Business Ready to Reopen (Proactive Ma...
The Steps You Need to Take to Get Your Business Ready to Reopen (Proactive Ma...The Steps You Need to Take to Get Your Business Ready to Reopen (Proactive Ma...
The Steps You Need to Take to Get Your Business Ready to Reopen (Proactive Ma...
Mark Graban
 
Getting from Data to Analysis and Insight in the Covid-19 Pandemic (Final)
Getting from Data to Analysis and Insight in the Covid-19 Pandemic (Final)Getting from Data to Analysis and Insight in the Covid-19 Pandemic (Final)
Getting from Data to Analysis and Insight in the Covid-19 Pandemic (Final)
Mark Graban
 
Busting Myths About Just in Time: The Implications for Healthcare Supply Chains
Busting Myths About Just in Time: The Implications for Healthcare Supply ChainsBusting Myths About Just in Time: The Implications for Healthcare Supply Chains
Busting Myths About Just in Time: The Implications for Healthcare Supply Chains
Mark Graban
 
Mark Graban Garden Center Conference Talk
Mark Graban Garden Center Conference TalkMark Graban Garden Center Conference Talk
Mark Graban Garden Center Conference Talk
Mark Graban
 
How Authors Can Stress Less Over Their Metrics
How Authors Can Stress Less Over Their MetricsHow Authors Can Stress Less Over Their Metrics
How Authors Can Stress Less Over Their Metrics
Mark Graban
 
Improve Your Lean Management System With a Simple Chart
Improve Your Lean Management System With a Simple ChartImprove Your Lean Management System With a Simple Chart
Improve Your Lean Management System With a Simple Chart
Mark Graban
 
Respect for People and Continuous Improvement for Healthcare
Respect for People and Continuous Improvement for HealthcareRespect for People and Continuous Improvement for Healthcare
Respect for People and Continuous Improvement for Healthcare
Mark Graban
 
Mark Graban ILC / MGMC Event 2016
Mark Graban ILC / MGMC Event 2016Mark Graban ILC / MGMC Event 2016
Mark Graban ILC / MGMC Event 2016
Mark Graban
 
Mark Graban ASHHRA Talk
Mark Graban ASHHRA TalkMark Graban ASHHRA Talk
Mark Graban ASHHRA Talk
Mark Graban
 
Practicing Lean 2016 Mark Graban Lean Frontiers
Practicing Lean 2016 Mark Graban Lean FrontiersPracticing Lean 2016 Mark Graban Lean Frontiers
Practicing Lean 2016 Mark Graban Lean Frontiers
Mark Graban
 
The Real Lessons of Dr. Deming’s Red Bead Factory
The Real Lessons of Dr. Deming’s Red Bead FactoryThe Real Lessons of Dr. Deming’s Red Bead Factory
The Real Lessons of Dr. Deming’s Red Bead Factory
Mark Graban
 
Mark Graban Intro to Lean - Frisco
Mark Graban Intro to Lean - FriscoMark Graban Intro to Lean - Frisco
Mark Graban Intro to Lean - Frisco
Mark Graban
 
Mark Graban Practicing Lean - Lean Frontiers TWI & HR Summit May 2016
Mark Graban Practicing Lean - Lean Frontiers TWI & HR Summit May 2016Mark Graban Practicing Lean - Lean Frontiers TWI & HR Summit May 2016
Mark Graban Practicing Lean - Lean Frontiers TWI & HR Summit May 2016
Mark Graban
 
Mark Graban Deming Red Bead 2016 SHS
Mark Graban Deming Red Bead 2016 SHSMark Graban Deming Red Bead 2016 SHS
Mark Graban Deming Red Bead 2016 SHS
Mark Graban
 
Mark Graban - Social Media for #BigGiveSA
Mark Graban - Social Media for #BigGiveSAMark Graban - Social Media for #BigGiveSA
Mark Graban - Social Media for #BigGiveSA
Mark Graban
 

More from Mark Graban (20)

Our Favorite Mistakes: Creating a Culture of Learning from Mistakes
  Our Favorite Mistakes: Creating a Culture of Learning from Mistakes  Our Favorite Mistakes: Creating a Culture of Learning from Mistakes
Our Favorite Mistakes: Creating a Culture of Learning from Mistakes
 
From Cop to Counselor 2020
From Cop to Counselor 2020From Cop to Counselor 2020
From Cop to Counselor 2020
 
Improve Your Lean Management System With a Simple Chart
Improve Your Lean Management System With a Simple ChartImprove Your Lean Management System With a Simple Chart
Improve Your Lean Management System With a Simple Chart
 
A Vision for Lean Healthcare
A Vision forLean HealthcareA Vision forLean Healthcare
A Vision for Lean Healthcare
 
Today’s Effective Leader: Shifting From Cop to Coach and Counselor
Today’s Effective Leader: Shifting From Cop to Coach and CounselorToday’s Effective Leader: Shifting From Cop to Coach and Counselor
Today’s Effective Leader: Shifting From Cop to Coach and Counselor
 
The Steps You Need to Take to Get Your Business Ready to Reopen (Proactive Ma...
The Steps You Need to Take to Get Your Business Ready to Reopen (Proactive Ma...The Steps You Need to Take to Get Your Business Ready to Reopen (Proactive Ma...
The Steps You Need to Take to Get Your Business Ready to Reopen (Proactive Ma...
 
Getting from Data to Analysis and Insight in the Covid-19 Pandemic (Final)
Getting from Data to Analysis and Insight in the Covid-19 Pandemic (Final)Getting from Data to Analysis and Insight in the Covid-19 Pandemic (Final)
Getting from Data to Analysis and Insight in the Covid-19 Pandemic (Final)
 
Busting Myths About Just in Time: The Implications for Healthcare Supply Chains
Busting Myths About Just in Time: The Implications for Healthcare Supply ChainsBusting Myths About Just in Time: The Implications for Healthcare Supply Chains
Busting Myths About Just in Time: The Implications for Healthcare Supply Chains
 
Mark Graban Garden Center Conference Talk
Mark Graban Garden Center Conference TalkMark Graban Garden Center Conference Talk
Mark Graban Garden Center Conference Talk
 
How Authors Can Stress Less Over Their Metrics
How Authors Can Stress Less Over Their MetricsHow Authors Can Stress Less Over Their Metrics
How Authors Can Stress Less Over Their Metrics
 
Improve Your Lean Management System With a Simple Chart
Improve Your Lean Management System With a Simple ChartImprove Your Lean Management System With a Simple Chart
Improve Your Lean Management System With a Simple Chart
 
Respect for People and Continuous Improvement for Healthcare
Respect for People and Continuous Improvement for HealthcareRespect for People and Continuous Improvement for Healthcare
Respect for People and Continuous Improvement for Healthcare
 
Mark Graban ILC / MGMC Event 2016
Mark Graban ILC / MGMC Event 2016Mark Graban ILC / MGMC Event 2016
Mark Graban ILC / MGMC Event 2016
 
Mark Graban ASHHRA Talk
Mark Graban ASHHRA TalkMark Graban ASHHRA Talk
Mark Graban ASHHRA Talk
 
Practicing Lean 2016 Mark Graban Lean Frontiers
Practicing Lean 2016 Mark Graban Lean FrontiersPracticing Lean 2016 Mark Graban Lean Frontiers
Practicing Lean 2016 Mark Graban Lean Frontiers
 
The Real Lessons of Dr. Deming’s Red Bead Factory
The Real Lessons of Dr. Deming’s Red Bead FactoryThe Real Lessons of Dr. Deming’s Red Bead Factory
The Real Lessons of Dr. Deming’s Red Bead Factory
 
Mark Graban Intro to Lean - Frisco
Mark Graban Intro to Lean - FriscoMark Graban Intro to Lean - Frisco
Mark Graban Intro to Lean - Frisco
 
Mark Graban Practicing Lean - Lean Frontiers TWI & HR Summit May 2016
Mark Graban Practicing Lean - Lean Frontiers TWI & HR Summit May 2016Mark Graban Practicing Lean - Lean Frontiers TWI & HR Summit May 2016
Mark Graban Practicing Lean - Lean Frontiers TWI & HR Summit May 2016
 
Mark Graban Deming Red Bead 2016 SHS
Mark Graban Deming Red Bead 2016 SHSMark Graban Deming Red Bead 2016 SHS
Mark Graban Deming Red Bead 2016 SHS
 
Mark Graban - Social Media for #BigGiveSA
Mark Graban - Social Media for #BigGiveSAMark Graban - Social Media for #BigGiveSA
Mark Graban - Social Media for #BigGiveSA
 

Recently uploaded

April 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
April 2024 Nostalgia Products NewsletterApril 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
April 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
NathanBaughman3
 
Brand Analysis for an artist named Struan
Brand Analysis for an artist named StruanBrand Analysis for an artist named Struan
Brand Analysis for an artist named Struan
sarahvanessa51503
 
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptx
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptx3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptx
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptx
tanyjahb
 
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdf
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdfEnterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdf
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdf
KaiNexus
 
LA HUG - Video Testimonials with Chynna Morgan - June 2024
LA HUG - Video Testimonials with Chynna Morgan - June 2024LA HUG - Video Testimonials with Chynna Morgan - June 2024
LA HUG - Video Testimonials with Chynna Morgan - June 2024
Lital Barkan
 
Affordable Stationery Printing Services in Jaipur | Navpack n Print
Affordable Stationery Printing Services in Jaipur | Navpack n PrintAffordable Stationery Printing Services in Jaipur | Navpack n Print
Affordable Stationery Printing Services in Jaipur | Navpack n Print
Navpack & Print
 
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
tjcomstrang
 
Business Valuation Principles for Entrepreneurs
Business Valuation Principles for EntrepreneursBusiness Valuation Principles for Entrepreneurs
Business Valuation Principles for Entrepreneurs
Ben Wann
 
What is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdf
What is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdfWhat is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdf
What is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdf
seoforlegalpillers
 
Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111
Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111
Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111
zoyaansari11365
 
Buy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star Reviews
Buy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star ReviewsBuy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star Reviews
Buy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star Reviews
usawebmarket
 
Sustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & Economy
Sustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & EconomySustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & Economy
Sustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & Economy
Operational Excellence Consulting
 
ikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdf
ikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdfikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdf
ikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdf
agatadrynko
 
Tata Group Dials Taiwan for Its Chipmaking Ambition in Gujarat’s Dholera
Tata Group Dials Taiwan for Its Chipmaking Ambition in Gujarat’s DholeraTata Group Dials Taiwan for Its Chipmaking Ambition in Gujarat’s Dholera
Tata Group Dials Taiwan for Its Chipmaking Ambition in Gujarat’s Dholera
Avirahi City Dholera
 
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and Templates
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and TemplatesDigital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and Templates
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and Templates
Aurelien Domont, MBA
 
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to ma...
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to ma...Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to ma...
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to ma...
Lviv Startup Club
 
amptalk_RecruitingDeck_english_2024.06.05
amptalk_RecruitingDeck_english_2024.06.05amptalk_RecruitingDeck_english_2024.06.05
amptalk_RecruitingDeck_english_2024.06.05
marketing317746
 
The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...
The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...
The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...
awaisafdar
 
Maksym Vyshnivetskyi: PMO Quality Management (UA)
Maksym Vyshnivetskyi: PMO Quality Management (UA)Maksym Vyshnivetskyi: PMO Quality Management (UA)
Maksym Vyshnivetskyi: PMO Quality Management (UA)
Lviv Startup Club
 
ENTREPRENEURSHIP TRAINING.ppt for graduating class (1).ppt
ENTREPRENEURSHIP TRAINING.ppt for graduating class (1).pptENTREPRENEURSHIP TRAINING.ppt for graduating class (1).ppt
ENTREPRENEURSHIP TRAINING.ppt for graduating class (1).ppt
zechu97
 

Recently uploaded (20)

April 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
April 2024 Nostalgia Products NewsletterApril 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
April 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
 
Brand Analysis for an artist named Struan
Brand Analysis for an artist named StruanBrand Analysis for an artist named Struan
Brand Analysis for an artist named Struan
 
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptx
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptx3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptx
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptx
 
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdf
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdfEnterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdf
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdf
 
LA HUG - Video Testimonials with Chynna Morgan - June 2024
LA HUG - Video Testimonials with Chynna Morgan - June 2024LA HUG - Video Testimonials with Chynna Morgan - June 2024
LA HUG - Video Testimonials with Chynna Morgan - June 2024
 
Affordable Stationery Printing Services in Jaipur | Navpack n Print
Affordable Stationery Printing Services in Jaipur | Navpack n PrintAffordable Stationery Printing Services in Jaipur | Navpack n Print
Affordable Stationery Printing Services in Jaipur | Navpack n Print
 
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
 
Business Valuation Principles for Entrepreneurs
Business Valuation Principles for EntrepreneursBusiness Valuation Principles for Entrepreneurs
Business Valuation Principles for Entrepreneurs
 
What is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdf
What is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdfWhat is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdf
What is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdf
 
Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111
Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111
Introduction to Amazon company 111111111111
 
Buy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star Reviews
Buy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star ReviewsBuy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star Reviews
Buy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star Reviews
 
Sustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & Economy
Sustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & EconomySustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & Economy
Sustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & Economy
 
ikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdf
ikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdfikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdf
ikea_woodgreen_petscharity_cat-alogue_digital.pdf
 
Tata Group Dials Taiwan for Its Chipmaking Ambition in Gujarat’s Dholera
Tata Group Dials Taiwan for Its Chipmaking Ambition in Gujarat’s DholeraTata Group Dials Taiwan for Its Chipmaking Ambition in Gujarat’s Dholera
Tata Group Dials Taiwan for Its Chipmaking Ambition in Gujarat’s Dholera
 
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and Templates
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and TemplatesDigital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and Templates
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and Templates
 
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to ma...
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to ma...Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to ma...
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to ma...
 
amptalk_RecruitingDeck_english_2024.06.05
amptalk_RecruitingDeck_english_2024.06.05amptalk_RecruitingDeck_english_2024.06.05
amptalk_RecruitingDeck_english_2024.06.05
 
The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...
The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...
The Parable of the Pipeline a book every new businessman or business student ...
 
Maksym Vyshnivetskyi: PMO Quality Management (UA)
Maksym Vyshnivetskyi: PMO Quality Management (UA)Maksym Vyshnivetskyi: PMO Quality Management (UA)
Maksym Vyshnivetskyi: PMO Quality Management (UA)
 
ENTREPRENEURSHIP TRAINING.ppt for graduating class (1).ppt
ENTREPRENEURSHIP TRAINING.ppt for graduating class (1).pptENTREPRENEURSHIP TRAINING.ppt for graduating class (1).ppt
ENTREPRENEURSHIP TRAINING.ppt for graduating class (1).ppt
 

Using SPC to Make Better Management Decisions

  • 1. Using SPC to Make Better Management Decisions Mark Graban Author, Lean Hospitals Co-Author, Healthcare Kaizen www.MarkGraban.com @MarkGraban
  • 2. Key Management Questions • How are we performing? – Are we getting better or worse? • What action should we take? “Failure to understand variation is a central problem of management.” – Dr. Lloyd S. Nelson Some rights reserved by Marco Bellucci
  • 3. My Most Favorite Book Ever Donald J. Wheeler, PhD http://www.spcpress.com/
  • 4. “No data have meaning apart from their context”
  • 5. Comparisons in the News Fatalities per 100 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled (U.S. & CT) 2 U.S. 1.5 1 CT 0.5 0 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
  • 6. Need to Look for Trends “You don't want to make a big conclusion based on just one year.” – Jonathan Adkins of the Governors Highway Safety Association “Office Space”
  • 8.
  • 10. Run Charts Show More Context
  • 11. Need to Avoid Bad Conclusions “The average patient satisfaction increased from 87.2 to 89%”
  • 12.
  • 13. A Better Dashboard Limited information you need to make decisions
  • 15. Overwhelming Data Sept „06 ? Can we predict September? Can We See Trends?
  • 16. The Good News… There is a better way
  • 17. SD = Standard Deviation, a measure of variation “X” Control Chart (Chart for Individual Values) Goal = 25 minutes “Every system is perfectly designed to get the results it gets.” (Deming)
  • 18. X and MR Chart Combo
  • 19. Small Business Example Revenue as a Stable Process? X chart MR chart
  • 20. Deming‟s 7 Concepts of Variation 1. All variation is caused – specific reasons. 2. There are 4 types of causes: 1. Common causes 2. Special causes 3. Tampering 4. Structural 3. Managers must distinguish amongst these – Each one requires different managerial actions.
  • 21. Deming‟s 7 Concepts of Variation 4. For special causes, get timely data 5. For common causes, all data are relevant. – In-depth knowledge of the process being improved is needed – statistics, flow charts, Pareto, stratification analysis, DOE 6. When all variation is common cause, the system is said to be “stable” and “predictable.” 7. SPC limits let a manager predict future performance with some confidence.
  • 22. The Funnel Experiment • Lloyd Nelson, 1987 – Suspend a funnel on a stand a few inches off the ground – Drop 50 marbles x
  • 23. A “Stable” System • Does NOT mean: – Zero variability – System meets customer requirements • Means only: – Causes of variation are basically constant over time
  • 24. We Have to Try Harder!!! • 4 different rules for adjusting the funnel Adjust relative Adjust relative No adjustment to last position to center Learn more – online simulator at http://www.symphonytech.com/dfunnel.htm
  • 25. So we should do nothing? “Don’t just do something, stand there.” -- Deming
  • 26. Responding to Daily Changes 60 Daily Production Average 50 Praise PT PT 40 Team GOAL 30 Kick KB 20 Butt KB 10 0 Are we helping? Is this process stable? 3/1/07 3/2/07 3/3/07 3/4/07 3/5/07 3/6/07 3/7/07 3/8/07 3/9/07 3/10/07 3/11/07 3/12/07
  • 27. 0 10 20 30 40 50 3/1/2007 60 3/3/2007 3/5/2007 3/7/2007 Lower Control Limit Upper Control Limit 3/9/2007 3/11/2007 3/13/2007 3/15/2007 3/17/2007 Creating a Control Chart 3/19/2007
  • 28. Step 1: Initial Data • Generally need 20 data points to calculate control limits
  • 29. Step 2: Mean & MRs • Calculate mean of the first 20 points • Calculate the moving range of the first 20 points – Ex: =ABS(E5-E4)
  • 30. Step 3: Draw Initial Chart (with Mean line) LeanBlog.org Daily Page Loads 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
  • 31. Step 4: Add Control Limits • Calculate “MR-bar” – Average of the 1st 19 MRs • Calculate Control Limits – LCL = Mean – 3*(MR bar)/1.126 – UCL = Mean + 3*(MR bar)/1.126
  • 32. Step 5: Review Chart LeanBlog.org Daily Page Loads 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Special Cause? 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
  • 33. Step 6: Revise Limits
  • 34. Step 7: Evaluate Over Time LeanBlog.org Daily Page Loads 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051
  • 35. Step 7: Evaluate Over Time LeanBlog.org Daily Page Loads 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051
  • 36. Step 7: Shift the Limits LeanBlog.org Daily Page Loads 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051
  • 37. “Western Electric” Rules (1956) • 8 consecutive points on same side of mean • 6 consecutive points moving same direction • 14 alternating up/down points in a row • Any single point above or below 3-sigma LCL or UCL – Full rules  http://bit.ly/WErules
  • 38. Process Shifts 35 35 Daily TAT 30 30 Process Shift 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 1 4 7 10 10 13 13 16 16 19 19 22 22 25 25 28 28 31 31 34 34 37 37 40 40 43 43 46 46 49 49 52 52 0 1 4 7 • If you made a change that you expected to improve the system, use a control chart to test the hypothesis
  • 40. NOT Understanding Variation Leads To… • Pressuring people to get better results by working harder within the same system • Wasting time looking for explanations of a perceived trend when nothing has changed • Taking other actions when it would have been better to do nothing • Not focusing on systemic improvements
  • 41. Isn’t it always the system? It’s (almost) always the system.
  • 42. Q&A / Contact Info • Email: – mark@constancy.us • Blog: – www.leanblog.org • Twitter: – @MarkGraban • Books: – www.LeanHospitalsBook.com – www.HCkaizen.com

Editor's Notes

  1. Nelson worked with Deming -- ASQ's 20th Honorary Member
  2. What is a “quality panel”? Keep in mind this is supposed to be a public metric in the LOBBY for visitors to see. What is the scale? What is a good score? What’s a good score compared to others? Why is the target what it is? The target is SUSPICIOUSLY close to the actual. Comparing a number to a target provides very little context… so does comparing a number to last year or last quarter… as we often see in the news.
  3. Test scores are down, teen smoking rates are up… Big changes aren't necessarily signal -- Small changes aren't just noise. 2.9% decline might be somewhat trivial (but good), while a 42% increase in CT *might* be statistically significant. Each state’s “JUMP” could be statistical noise. Look at the chart (made from NHTSA data) – are our roads safer (chart) or more dangerous (headline). A 42% increase in CT – what’s going on there?
  4. Weird that the time scale goes right to left. What looks like an increase from 43 to 47% disapproval, could statistically be a drop from 46% to 44%.
  5. Executive time series -- Take into account noise in the system and common cause variation the picture is much less clear
  6. Consulting firm case study from a hospital… the early and late data point comparison…. Or you can try the linear trend. But by SPC standards, this is a stable process… not statistically valid improvement
  7. Another reason charts are preferable is that they are VISUAL and much more easily interpreted by people
  8. I wish I could say I just won about a bet about incorporating Knight Rider into the webinar… but I just like the picture. Sorry.
  9. So we could CHART the data and make it more visual. But how do we manage?
  10. Driving to work….
  11. Management is prediction
  12. Topic that people didn’t like? Website down?  Stop SOPA Day
  13. Special cause of Jan 2 – holiday weekend, so that was eliminated. Not the most stable process, but can generally predict daily page loads would be between 1200 and 2200 without there being any special cause
  14. Expect one “false positive” signal every 371 data points with just this rule (“Shewhart Rule”)
  15. This is how I would test if a client is not only sustaining gains, but also improving
  16. You’re different story