10. Source: University of Illinois 2018
• With corn and soybean acreage relatively unchanged in 2018, price movements were going to be driven by weather/yields
and trade over the summer and fall
• Weather in the US looked very favourable to above trend yields as June and July progressed and this would have trended
prices downwards regardless of China situation. The China situation generally added day to day volatility and profit-taking
by non-commercials
• Corn: payment of $0.01 per bu is about 0.29% of the current cash price of $3.41 per bu in the US - does little to retrace the
roughly $0.60 per bu lost since June
• Soybeans: payment of $1.65 per bu is about 19% of the current cash price of $8.58 in the US – will retrace a larger portion
of the roughly $2 per bu lost since June
US Corn and Soybean Prices during China Dispute
11. 2018 Market Facilitation Payment
• USDA announced first MFP payment on July 24, 2018 and second payment on Dec 17, 2018
• Each payment was on 50% of the farm’s total production for the commodity.
• Outside of soybeans and hogs the payments per unit are quite minor: Corn: payment of $0.01 per bu is about 0.29%
of the current cash price of $3.41 per bu in the US; Wheat: payment of $0.14 per bu is about 2.7% of the current cash
price of $5.22 in the US; Milk: payment of $0.12 per cwt is about 0.68% of the current cash price of $17.40 per cwt in
the US; Soybeans: payment of $1.65 per bu is abput 19% of the current cash price of $8.58 in the US; Hogs:
payment of $8 per head is about 7.5% of the current cash price of about $106 per head in the US
• While the soybean and hog payments are quite large, the MFP is subject to the similar per farm payment limits as the
ARC and PLC programs. The payment limit being $125,000 per farm. Note with MFP, a large hog, dairy and cash
crop farm could trigger up to $250,000. In the context of the scale of US farms, effectively this means the largest
farms have very little real coverage and may limit both participation and the financial impact of the program. For
example, a farm growing 1,300 acres of soybeans would hit the cap.
14
Commodity
Payment
Rate Units Production Base
Estimated Total
Payments ($ Millions)
Soybeans 1.65 bushel Harvested crop 7,259.40
Hogs 8.00 head Inventory during July 15 to August 15 580.60
Cotton 0.06 pounds Harvested crop 553.80
Sorghum 0.86 bushel Harvested crop in 2018 313.60
Dairy - milk 0.12 cwt. Historical MPP-Dairy production 254.60
Wheat 0.14 bushel Harvested crop in 2018 238.40
Corn 0.01 bushel Harvested crop in 2018 192.00
Fressh sweet cherries 0.16 pound Harvested crop in 2018 111.50
Shelled Almonds 0.03 pound Harvested crop in 2018 63.30
Total 9,567.20
Source: Congressional Research Service - Dec 20, 2018
2018 US Market Facilitation Payment - total of July 24 and Dec 17 payments
12. US Corn Supply-Disposition
Source: USDA - WASDE
CORN
2016/17 2017/18
2018/19
December 2019/20 2020/21
Area Planted 94 90.2 89.1 92.0 93.0
Area Harvested 86.7 82.7 81.8 84.6 85.6
Yield per Harvested Acre 174.6 176.6 178.9 176.5 178.5
Beginning Stocks 1,737 2,293 2,139 1,780 1,570
Production 15,148 14,604 14,626 14,930 15,280
Imports 57 36 45 50 50
Supply, Total 16,942 16,933 16,810 16,760 16,900
Feed and Residual 5,470 5,298 5,500 5,575 5,650
Food, Seed & Industrial 2/
6,885 7,058 7,080 7,190 7,215
Ethanol & by-products
3/ 5,432 5,605 5,600 5,700 5,725
Domestic, Total 12,355 12,356 12,580 12,765 12,865
Exports 2,294 2,438 2,450 2,425 2,450
Use, Total 14,649 14,794 15,030 15,190 15,315
Ending Stocks 2,293 2,139 1,780 1,570 1,585
Stocks-Use Ratio 15.7% 14.5% 11.8% 10.3% 10.3%
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 3.36 3.36 3.25 - 3.95 3.90 3.95
Million Acres
Bushels
Million Bushels
USDA Corn long-term projections as of October 2018
13. US Soybeans Supply-Disposition
Source: USDA - WASDE
SOYBEANS
2016/17 2017/18
2018/19
December 2019/20 2020/21
Area Planted 83.4 90.1 89.1 82.5 82.5
Area Harvested 82.7 89.5 88.3 81.8 81.8
Yield per Harvested
Acre 52 49.3 52.1 50.0 50.6
Beginning Stocks 197 302 439 956 794
Production 4,296 4,411 4,600 4,090 4,135
Imports 22 22 25 25 25
Supply, Total 4,515 4,735 5,064 5,071 4,954
Crush 1,901 2,055 2,080 2,075 2,100
Seed 105 104 96 95 96
Residual 41 8 32 32 32
Domestic, Total 2,047 2,167 2,208 2,202 2,228
Exports 2,166 2,129 1,900 2,075 2,090
Use, Total 4,213 4,296 4,108 4,277 4,318
Ending Stocks 302 439 956 794 636
Stocks-Use Ratio 7.2% 10.2% 23.3% 18.6% 14.7%
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 9.47 9.33 7.85 - 9.35 8.75 9.15
Million Acres
Bushels
Million Bushels
USDA Corn long-term projections as of October 2018
27. Meat Demand
27
▪ Total meat demand is growing
▪ Beef demand increased and has flattened despite rising prices
28. Canadian Cow Herd Size
28
▪ Canadian cow herd at lowest level in 20 years – short-
lived expansion in 2016 and 2017
29. Ontario Cattle Slaughter
29
• Ontario cattle slaughter has risen in large part due to higher cow slaughter
• Western Feeder cattle have fallen from 44% of total slaughter in 2015 to
about 30% in 2017
• Slaughter prices have fallen sharply from record highs but are still
historically strong
30. Canadian Cattle Slaughter
30
• Tight supply has lead to increasing carcass weights over
time
• 2017 saw first decline in close to ten years
31. Ontario Cattle Slaughter
31
• Tight slaughter supply has meant a strong basis
• Simply not enough fed cattle in Ontario to meet demand
• Basis has weakened considerably as cow slaughter has increased
32. Beef Imports
32
▪ Beef imports are a major part of the Canadian supply
chain and are below pre-BSE levels
▪ Ontario imports close to 50% of beef consumption
33. Ontario Feeder Calf Basis
33
• High crop prices and low returns since BSE has tightened an already tight
feeder calf supply
• Weak dollar, and low supply of calves are main drivers
• Fall 2018 has seen price ranges widen as weaker cattle are heavily
discounted
34. Ontario Sow Herd Productivity
34
▪ Ontario productivity per litter has grown rapidly since 2006
▪ Ontario pigs born per litter exceed US by almost 2 pigs
35. Ontario Hog Slaughter
35
• Total Ontario hog slaughter fell as sow numbers declined and has
began to rise again
• Roughly 1.5 million market hogs go to Quebec for slaughter now
36. Ontario Hog Slaughter
36
• Tight slaughter supply means a stronger basis
• Movement of hogs to Quebec has pushed this also
37. Pork Imports
37
▪ Pork imports are a major part of the Canadian supply
chain
▪ Ontario imports roughly 40% of pork consumption
47. Highlights
▪ Long-term prospects for the ag sector continue to be bright.
▪ 2019 should see modestly higher US acreage for grains & oilseeds crops.
▪ US beef and pork production continues to grow while demand is growing –
adding strength to prices in the medium to longer term
▪ Unpredictability and volatility are likely to increase due to expansion of
livestock markets in the US and high level of stocks
▪ Weak Canadian dollar continues to largely shield Canadian farmers from
price weakness experienced in US.
▪ Ontario prices
▪ Farmers must continue to implement a number of strategies:
• pushing for production and cost efficiencies;
• participating in business risk management programs;
• hedging on commodity markets;
• using available marketing tools;
• ensuring credit is in place before it is needed; and,
• reducing debt and increasing liquid assets.
47