NC Demographic Change & the 2016 Electorate by Dr. Tippett presented at NCFEF Thinkers Lunch July 31, 2015

1. North Carolina
Demographic Change &
the 2016 Electorate
NCFEF Thinkers Luncheon
July 31, 2015
Rebecca Tippett, University of North Carolina

2. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
July1Population(Millions)
YearData: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, OSBM Projections
Officially 9th most
populous state
as of 2014
10.2M
in 2016
North Carolina’s Total Population (July 1), 1990-2016

3. Urbanization
50% in 1990
vs.
66% in 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

4. NC Counties with Growth from Natural
Increase & Net Migration, 2010-2014
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

5. NC Counties with Growth from Natural
Increase Only, 2010-2014
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

6. NC Counties with Growth from Net
Migration Only, 2010-2014
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

7. NC Counties with Population Loss, 2010-2014
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

8. Who is “at risk”
of voting?

9. 1. Total Population
Who is eligible to vote?
2. Voting Eligible Population

10. Share of eligible voters can differ from
share of total population
Data Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey

11. 1. Total Population
Who is eligible to vote?
2. Voting Eligible Population
Who is registered to vote?
3. Registered Population
Who votes?
4. Electorate

12. Differences in registration & turnout rates
shift county share of total electorate
Data Sources: 2009-2013 ACS; NC SBE

13. 75%
64%
22%
21%
1% 9%
1%
2%
1% 3%
1990 Census 2013 ACS
White Black Hispanic Asian Other
Racial/Ethnic Shifts, 1990 vs. 2013

14. 64% 67% 71% 71%
21%
21%
22%
22%
9% 7%
4%
2%
2% 1%
3% 2%
Total Population 18+ Citizen 18+ 2012 Electorate
White Black Hispanic Asian Other
Eligibility & Turnout Impact Face of Electorate
Data Sources: 2009-2013 ACS; NC SBE

15. Greatest
( -1927)
Silent
(1928-1945)
Boomers
(1946-1964)
Gen X
(1965-1981)
31% Millennial
in 2017
Gen Z
(2005- )
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Proportionof18+Population
Year
Millennial adults will outnumber Boomers in NC by 2017
Generational composition of North Carolina's 18+ population, 2010-2035
Data Source: NC OSBM Single Year of Age Projections
Millennial
(1982-2004)

16. 5.9%
0.7%
1.3%
2.7%
10.0%
7.6%
Total
Population
Greatest Silent Boomers Gen X Millennial
Population share of non-citizens highest among Gen X, Millennials
Percent non-citizen among NC residents 15+ in 2013, ACS
Data Source: 2013 American Community Survey, IPUMS-USA

17. 1% 1%
11%
13%
35%
29%
27%
30%
24%
Adult Population Registered, Active
Voters
Eligibility & registration patterns shift generational composition
of NC's 2016 electorate
Baby Boomers
Gen X
Millennials
Silent
Greatest
Data Sources: NC SBE Voter Registration, 5/23/2015; NC OSBM

18. Thank you!
http://demography.cpc.unc.edu
@ncdemography
Rebecca Tippett
(919) 962-6151
rebecca.tippett@unc.edu