The 2019 sotc presentation for slide share

State of the Community Report
September 19, 2019 | 7:30 - 10 a.m.
UNC Friday Center

Ellen Shannon
Vice Chair, The Chamber’s Board of Directors
#CHCSOTC

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35th CLASS GRADUATION
Learn more and apply for Leadership 2020 at CarolinaChamber.org/Leadership

35th CLASS GRADUATION
Elinor Landess
Campus & Community
Coalition Director,
Chapel Hill Downtown Partnership
Dave Gilliam
Director of Sales &
Account Management,
Acxiom
2019 Class Co-Presidents
Learn more and apply for Leadership 2020 at CarolinaChamber.org/Leadership

Presenting Sponsor
Jessica Aylor
Vice President of
Community Engagement

Aaron NelsonPresident and CEO
#CHCSOTC

Some Caveats
• Order
• Ping Pong
• Snap Shot
• Blurt
• Recency
• Partnership
• Jessica Stanford, Jensen, Vanessa and Dr. Tippett
• Underwriters

Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors

Orange
County Total
Value Per Acre
Urban3

Southern
Orange County
Planning
Jurisdictions
Orange County Planning

Downtown
Meadowmont
Southern Village
Ephesus
Church
FordhamDowntown
Assessed Value
Per Acre
Orange County Total Value Per Acre
Urban3

Chapel Hill
4.9%
Carrboro
1.6%
Hillsborough
1.3%
Mebane
0.5%
Rest of
Orange
91.7%
Orange County Land
Distribution
5-Year American Community Survey, 2013-17

Orange County
Housing Unit
Distribution
(56,941 total units)
Chapel
Hill
20,056
Carrboro
9,585Hillsborough 2,831
Mebane
1,148
Rest of
Orange
23,321

2018 Orange County Total Assessed Value (millions)
Chapel Hill,
$7,012
(43.8%)
Carrboro, $2,139 (13.4%)
Hillsborough,
$886 (5.5%)
Rest of
Orange
County,
$5,963
(37.3%)
Total = $16 billion
Orange County Tax Assessor

2018 County Assessed Value (percentage)
72.1% 77.1%
58.2%
95.5%
80.7%
18.5% 10.7%
33.4%
3.9%
12.9%
9.3% 12.2% 8.4% 6.4%
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Rest of Orange
County
Total County
Residential Commercial Apartment

Orange County Assessed Value (millions)
$5,058
$1,650
$516
$5,696
$1,300
$229
$296
$234
$654
$260
$74
$34
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Rest of Orange
County
Residential Commercial Apartment

Each year ‘health’ gets
crunched at the end…
Not this time.

Adult Smoking (2019)
Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
County Health Rankings
18%
14% 15%
19%
16%
14%
11%
22%
13%
19%
13%
10%
16% 16%

Access to Exercise Opportunities (2019)
73%
84%
64%
79%
90% 89%
97%
80%
94% 90% 91% 97% 93% 87%

Adult Obesity (2019)
30%
25%
27%
32%
26%
24%
15%
25% 24% 25% 24%
22%
27%
29%

Excessive Drinking (2019)
17%
21%
16% 16% 17%
20%
24%
17%
29%
21%
25%
20% 21%
19%

Uninsured Adults (2019)
15%
12%
16% 17%
15%
11%
8%
18%
6%
10%
6%
9%
4%
8%

Disconnected Youth (2019)
7%
3%
10%
7%
6%
4%
3%
2% 2% 2%
3%
5% 5%
7%

All Cancers Rate per 100,000 is Lowest in Orange
NC State Center for Health
Statistics
470
509
489
456
449
463
North Carolina
Alamance
Chatham
Durham
Orange
Wake
2013-2017

497
507
483 489
468
533
470
509
489
456 449
463
North
Carolina
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
2008-12 2013-17
All Cancers Rate per 100,000 Declines Except
for Alamance and Chatham
2008-2012 vs 2013-2017
Statistics

Statistics
112
108
109
111
91
122
North Carolina
Alamance
Chatham
Durham
Orange
Wake
Prostate Cancer Rate per 100,000 Lowest in Orange
2013-2017

Statistics
Prostate Cancer Rate per 100,000 Declines
2008-2012 vs 2013-2017
144 149
124
145
128
159
112 108 109 111
91
122
North
Carolina
2008-12 2013-17

Statistics
160.2
186.0
187.7
174.1
190.7
169.9
North Carolina
Alamance
Chatham
Durham
Orange
Wake
Female Breast Cancer Rate per 100,000
Highest Orange
2013-2017

159 165 173 176 166 170160
186 188 174
191
170
North
Carolina
2008-12 2013-17
Female Breast Cancer Rate per 100,000 Increases
2008-2012 vs 2013-2017

Orange County Teen Pregnancies Too Few to
Calculate Rate Since 2014
26.1
9.1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Too few to
calculate rates
Statistics
Pregnancies per 1,000 girls ages 15-17

Orange County Infant Mortality Lower than NC for
the Last Decade
12.0
5.1
8.8
7.2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Orange County North Carolina
Statistics
Infant Deaths per 1,000 Live Births

Robert Wood Johnson Foundation County
Health Rankings
2019Health
Indicator
OrangeCounty ChathamCounty Who is #1
Length of Life 1 7 Orange
Quality of Life
Health Behaviors
Clinical Care
Social and
Economic Factors
Physical
Environment

Health Rankings
2019Health
Indicator
Quality of Life 3 19 Dare
Health Behaviors
Clinical Care
Social and
Economic Factors
Physical
Environment

Health Rankings
2019Health
Indicator
Health Behaviors 2 3 Wake
Clinical Care
Social and
Economic Factors
Physical
Environment

Health Rankings
2019Health
Indicator
Clinical Care 1 9 Orange
Social and
Economic Factors
Physical
Environment

Health Rankings
2019Health
Indicator
Social and
Economic Factors
2 15
Wake
Physical
Environment

Health Rankings
2019Health
Indicator
Social and
Economic Factors
2 15
Wake
Physical
Environment
46 74 Hyde

% of Residents 25+ with a Bachelor’s Degree
or Higher (2013-2017)
Chapel Hill, NC,
74.6%
Carrboro, NC, 67.8%
Orange County, NC, 57.6%
Hillsborough, NC,
42.9%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%
Cambridge, MA
Chapel Hill, NC
Ann Arbor, MI
Boulder, CO
Berkeley, CA
Carrboro, NC
Evanston, IL
Amherst, MA
Sunnyvale, CA
Corvallis, OR
Orange County, NC
Santa Clara, CA
Bloomington, IN
Fort Collins, CO
Charlottesville, VA
Burlington, VT
Austin, TX
Tallahassee, FL
Boston, MA
Gainesville, FL
Hillsborough, NC
San Jose, CA
Chatham County, NC
Athens-Clarke Co, GA
Columbus, OH

Children in Poverty (2019)
21%
11%
16%
21%
24%
12%
10%
29%
9%
17%
11% 11%
13%
17%

Number of Children in Poverty Declined From Peak
4,822
3,229
2,952
2,462
0
2,500
5,000
Orange County Chatham County
U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty
Estimates (SAIPE)

Orange County Food and Nutrition Services (FNS)
Caseload and Participants Decline from Peak
5,0546,279
2,925
9,985
11,779
6,111
Orange Cases Orange Participants
Orange County Department of Health and Human Services

Chatham County Food and Nutrition Services (FNS)
Caseload and Participants Decline from Peak
2,525
3,221
1,345
5,288
6,632
2,948
Chatham Cases Chatham Participants
Orange County Department of Health and Human Services

Food Insecurity Rate by County (2017)
14.6%
12.7%
14.4%
11%
16.5%
12.1%
North
Carolina
Orange Alamance Chatham Durham Wake
Feeding America

Change in Food Insecurity Rate (2013-2017)
-3.7%
-2.7%
-2.3%
-1.0%
-1.7%
-2.3%
North
Carolina Orange Alamance Chatham Durham Wake
Feeding America

Food Insecure People by County (2017)
18,030 22,680
7,490
49,600
124,130
Feeding America

Change in Food Insecure People (2013-2017)
(2,870) (2,770)
(260) (780)
(9,330)
Feeding America

Percent of Students Enrolled in Free and
Reduced Lunch (2017-2018)
61.4%
50.1%
64.0%
44.0%
28.3%
34.3%
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange
County
CHCCS Wake
NC Department of Public Instruction

Growing Percentage of Students Enrolled in
Free & Reduced Lunch
44.0%
50.1%
50.6%
64.0%
32.6%
44.0%
21.7%
28.3%
Chatham Durham Orange County CHCCS

Violent Crime per 100,000 Declining
2001-2017
NC Department of Public Safety
232
199
372
176
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Chatham Orange

Violent Crime per 100,000
361
446
232
199
885 748
372
176
451
245
2001-2017

Property Crime per 100,000 Declining
2001-2017
3,319
1,455
4,887
2,078
Chatham Orange

Property Crime per 100,000 (2001-2017)
Alamance, 2,124
Chatham, 1,455
Durham, 3,758
Orange, 2,078
Wake, 1,875
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000

Orange Highest Per Capita Income in State,
Chatham #3
Orange, $38,348
Chatham, $36,933
Durham, $33,151
NC, $28,123
Scotland,
$17,103
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000 Orange
Wake
Chatham
Mecklenburg
Durham
Union
New
Moore
Carteret
Dare
Iredell
Polk
Brunswick
Buncombe
Currituck
Davie
Cabarrus
Forsyth
Guilford
Henderson
NC
Camden
Lincoln
Macon
Haywood
Craven
Transylvania
Pender
Catawba
Perquimans
Pitt
Pamlico
Clay
Nash
Alamance
Gaston
Johnston
Granville
Beaufort
Watauga
Person
Gates
Davidson
Franklin
Rowan
Pasquotank
Jackson
Ashe
Cumberland
Lee
Chowan
Stokes
Stanly
Wilson
Wayne
Onslow
Yadkin
Alexander
Madison
Surry
Rockingham
Harnett
Randolph
Mitchell
Martin
Caldwell
Yancey
Burke
Columbus
Wilkes
Avery
Caswell
Cleveland
Lenoir
Warren
Vance
Alleghany
Cherokee
Washington
Rutherford
Jones
Swain
Montgomery
Sampson
Bladen
McDowell
Halifax
Richmond
Hoke
Hyde
Northampton
Anson
Graham
Edgecombe
Greene
Duplin
Hertford
Bertie
Tyrrell
Robeson
Scotland

Median Household Income (1998-2017)
$62,138
$69,422$65,999
$63,373
$61,796 $60,045
Orange County Chatham County
Durham County
Estimates (SAIPE)
Adjusted for inflation ($2017)

Dollar Change in Median Household Income
1998 vs. 2017 (adjusted for inflation)
$7,284
($2,626)
($1,751)
($6,513)
($3,589)
($183)
$3,082
Orange County
Chatham County
Durham County
Alamance County
Wake County
North Carolina
United States
Estimates (SAIPE)

Percent Change in Median Household Income
1998 vs. 2017 (adjusted for inflation)
11.7%
-4.0%
-2.8%
-12.0%
-4.4%
-0.3%
5.4%
Orange County
Chatham County
Durham County
Alamance County
Wake County
North Carolina
United States
Estimates (SAIPE)

Ranesha Hinson – Branch Manager, Chapel Hill
Sam Nichols – Commercial Banker
Jochen Schwarz – Business Banker
Troy Fairbank – Financial Advisor
Tim Hinton – Premier Relationship Banker
Meet the Chapel Hill Market Team
Sponsor of nonprofit Teen Cancer America and recently announced a
partnership with the UNC Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center
Forever Strong. Forever First®.
Forever Family. Forever Helping. Forever Stable.
North Carolina Based Since 1898

Who We Are and
How We Are Changing
Demographics - Population Growth - Migration

Dr. Rebecca TippettFounding Director
#CHCSOTC

Demographics and
Population Growth

Orange County Population Increases
Numeric Growth by Decade, 1930-2018
1,901
11,363
8,535
14,737
19,348
16,796
24,376
15,574
12,325
U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates (July 1)
?

Orange County Population Increases Smallest Since
1950s
1,901
11,363
8,535
14,737
19,348
16,796
24,376
15,574
12,325

Orange County Population Percentage Growth
Percent Population Increase by Decade, 1930-2018
9.0%
49.3%
24.8%
34.3% 33.5%
21.8%
26.0%
13.2%
9.2%

Orange County Population Percentage Growth
Slowest Since 1930s
9.0%
49.3%
24.8%
34.3% 33.5%
21.8%
26.0%
13.2%
9.2%

Chatham County Added over 14k people in the 2000s
549 666 1,393
2,769
3,861
5,344
10,570
14,176
9,658

2000s Fastest Growth Decade for Chatham County
2.3% 2.7%
5.5%
10.3%
13.1%
16.0%
27.3% 28.7%
15.2%

Growth in Chapel Hill
6,222 6,290
7,308
11,214
3,768
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2018
?

Smallest Numeric Growth in Chapel Hill since 1970s
6,222 6,290
7,308
11,214
3,768
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2018

2010s Slowest-Growing Decade for Chapel Hill
23.7%
19.4% 18.9%
24.4%
6.6%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2018

Smallest Numeric Growth in Carrboro Since 1970s
2,278
4,798 4,648
2,800
1,747
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2018

Numeric Growth in Carrboro
2,278
4,798 4,648
2,800
1,747
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2018

2010s Slowest-Growing decade for Carrboro
45.0%
65.4%
38.3%
16.7%
8.9%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2018

Numeric Growth in Hillsborough Should Pass
2000s
1,575
1,244 1,183
641 630
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2018

Hillsborough Growth on Pace with 2000s Rate
109.1%
41.2%
27.8%
11.8% 9.5%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2018

Population Gains Since 2010 Smallest in Chatham
Numeric Population Growth, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018
9,658
12,325
15,276
46,740
191,247
Chatham County
Orange County
Alamance County
Durham County
Wake County

Orange, Chatham Grew Faster than State Average
Population Growth Rate April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018
8.9%
9.2%
10.1%
15.2%
17.3%
21.2%
North Carolina
Orange County
Alamance County
Chatham County
Durham County
Wake County

Orange County Population by Race
Population Composition, 1990-2018
80% 76% 71% 69%
16%
14%
12% 11%
1%
4%
8% 9%
3% 4% 7% 8%
2% 3% 3%
1990 2000 2010 2018
Other or
Multiracial
Asian
Hispanic
Black
White
U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census | Population Estimates

Orange County Minority Population by Race
14,847 16,175 15,722 16,619
1,279
5,273 11,017 12,5832,352 4,860
9,031
11,955
3,764
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1990 2000 2010 2018
Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander All Other*
*All Other includes American Indian, Other race, and multiracial
U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census | Population
Estimates

State and County Minority Make Up (2018)
21%
12% 11%
10%
12%
9%
3% 2%
8%
3% 2% 3%
North Carolina Chatham County Orange County

Municipal Minority Make Up (2017)
12%
10%
21%
9%
6%
12%
9%
13%
2%
4% 4% 3%
Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough

Share 65+ Increased Statewide, Locally
Population proportion 65+, April 1, 2010 vs July 1, 2018
18%
15%
13%
10% 10% 8%
24%
17% 16%
14% 13% 12%
Chatham Alamance North Carolina Orange Durham Wake
2010 2018

Increases in 65+ Drove Majority of NC and
County Growth
Share of 2010-2018 population growth due to 65+ growth
64%
61%
54%
40%
33%
26%
Chatham
Orange
North Carolina
Alamance
Durham
Wake

Migration Drives Population Growth in Orange
County
Components of Orange County’s Estimated 12,325 person growth, 2010-2018
12,325
10,015
-6,448
2,960
5,812
Total Change Births Deaths
Domestic
Migration
International
Migration

All Growth in Chatham is from Domestic Migration
9,658
5,247
-5,368
9,693
5
Total Change Births Deaths
Domestic
Migration
International
Migration
Components of Chatham County’s Estimated 9,658 person growth, 2010-2018

-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
AgeSource: Winkler et al., 2013
NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
No Net Migration

-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Net Out Migration
Source: Winkler et al., 2013

-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Winkler et al., 2013

-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Orange Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010

-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Orange
Pitt
Watauga
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010

-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Youth Drain
Halifax

0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Employment
Center
Wake

0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Family Suburbs
Johnston

-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Chatham, Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010

Total Per Pupil Expenditure (2017-2018)
$8,919
$9,080
$10,437
$11,084
$11,341
$12,250
$12,790
Alamance-Burlington Schools
Wake County Schools
Chatham County Schools
Durham County Schools
Orange County Schools
Chapel Hill/Carrboro City
Schools
Asheville City Schools

Local Per Pupil Expenditure (2017-2018)
$1,952
$2,737
$3,510
$3,629
$4,511
$5,676
$6,235
Wake County Schools
Durham County Schools
Asheville City Schools
Chapel Hill/Carrboro City
Schools

Average SAT Evidence-Based Reading and
Writing Score (2018)
568
573
621
522
539
520
542
Wake County Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro City
Schools
Durham Public Schools
North Carolina (All Students)

Average SAT Mathematics Score (2018)
562
559
611
505
524
521
532
Wake County Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools

Average SAT Total Score (2018)
1,130
1,133
1,231
1,027
1,063
1,041
1,074
Wake County Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro City
Schools

End of Grade Reading Grade 3 (2018)
65%
48%
71%
43%
60%
50%
Grade Level Proficient (Level 3+)

End of Grade Reading Grade 3 (2018)
56%
39%
65%
33%
50%
41%
College and Career Ready (Level 4 or 5)

3rd Grade Reading Proficiency Declining
75%
71%
63%
48%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
CHCCS Orange County
% Grade Level Proficient (level 3+), 2014-2018

CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 “Proficient”
77%
55%
43%
89%
73%
43% 39%
89%
Asian Black Hispanic White
2017 2018

CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 “Grade Level
Proficient” (2014-2018)
75% 71%
79% 73%
34%
43%44% 39%
92% 89%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
All Asian Black Hispanic White

Orange County EOG Reading Grade 3 “Proficient”
2016-17 vs 2017-18 (level 3+)
35%
29%
74%
39%
23%
61%
Black Hispanic White
2017 2018

Orange County EOG Reading Grade 3 “Proficient”
(2014-2018)
63%
48%46%
39%37%
23%
73%
61%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
All Black Hispanic White

Chatham County EOG Reading Grade 3 “Proficient”
2016-17 vs 2017-18
35%
42%
78%
37%
45%
73%
Black Hispanic White
2017 2018

Chatham County EOG Reading Grade 3 “Proficient”
2014-2018
62% 60%
38% 37%
44% 45%
76%
73%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
All Black Hispanic White

High School Dropout Rates, 2000-2018
1.9%
0.7%
5.2%
2.5%
5.7%
2.2%
CHCCS Orange NC

All Students 4-Year Graduation Rates
4-Year Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate 2018
90%
86% 86% 86%
89%
82% 81%
50%
100%
CHCCS Orange Chatham NC Wake Durham Alamance-
Burlington

Growth in All Student 4-Year Graduation Rates
% Change in 4-Year Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate, 2008 vs. 2018
2%
12%
8%
23%
13%
29%
15%
0%
50%
Burlington

Graduation Rates in Neighboring Districts
Nearly Equal to CHHS
Share of the 9th grade cohort that graduated in 4 years, by graduation year
CHCCS
90%
CHCCS
90%
Orange
67%
Orange
86%
Chatham
67%
Chatham
86%
NC
68%
NC 86%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
CHCCS Orange Chatham NC

Black Students 4-Year Graduation Rates
86%
80%
83% 83% 84% 83% 82%
50%
100%
Burlington

Growth in Black Student 4-Year Graduation Rates
35%
21%
7%
33%
30%
44%
31%
0%
50%
Burlington

Hispanic Students 4-Year Graduation Rates
85% 83%
77%
80%
77%
71%
76%
50%
100%
Burlington

Economically Disadvantaged Students 4-Year Graduation
Rates
74% 75%
80% 80% 78% 76% 76%
50%
100%
Burlington

Growth in Economically Disadvantaged Student
4-Year Graduation Rates
25% 29%
6%
36% 38%
57%
31%
0%
50%
100%
Burlington

Students with Disabilities 4-Year Graduation Rates
77%
69% 68% 69% 71%
67%
61%
50%
100%
Burlington

Growth in Students with Disabilities 4-Year Graduation
Rates% Change in 4-Year Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate, 2008 vs. 2018
27%
0.3%
4%
22%
26%
19%
30%
0%
50%
Burlington

Dr. Pamela BaldwinSuperintendent
#CHCSOTC

Higher Education,
Innovation and Workforce

State Appropriations to UNC-Chapel Hill Remain
Below 2008 Levels (1980-2018)
$518 million
$543 million
$108 million
UNC Office of Institutional Research

UNC-Chapel Hill Revenues Rise Rapidly, State
Appropriations See Modest Growth
$3.4 billion
$294 million
$518 million
$108 million
UNC-CH North Carolina

UNC-Chapel Hill Campus Grows Past
21 Million Square Feet
21.2 million
7.8 million

UNC-Chapel Hill Student Population Now
Exceeds 30,000
30,011
21,465

UNC Annual Research Funding exceeds $883 million
$883 million
$70 million

500 and 424 (NC)
Innovate Carolina

And the pace is quickening
288 in the last five years and 218 in the previous five

Billion
in total funding
Innovate Carolina

Billion in Annual Revenue (2018-19)
*$13.1 Billion Headquartered NC
Innovate Carolina

78,658
Employees
12,587 employees in NC
…. and a total of 9,915 volunteers
Innovate Carolina

Most UNC Startups Headquartered in NC
UNC

Durham Tech Licensure Pass Rates &
Transfer Performance Generally Increase
2017 vs. 2018
85%
97%
76%
95% 100% 94%89%
100%
78%
97% 100%
81%
Transfer
Performance
(2015-2016)
Practical
Nursing
Registered
Nursing
EMT EMT-P Esthetician
2017 2018
Durham Tech

Career and College Promise & Orange Promise
Durham Tech: Orange County Campus Awards
59
108
143
91
178 190
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Career and College Promise (CCP) Orange Promise Awards
Durham Tech

47%of CHCCS or OCS graduates
received financial aid from
Durham Tech
(N=1515, 2013-2018)
Durham Tech

Continuing Education Classes Offered
Durham Tech Orange County Campus, 2011-12 – 2017-18
269
245
215
188
213 204
237
264
Durham Tech

Join us on November 15th for a ribbon cutting ceremony for more information
visit CommunityWorxNC.org or email: info@communityworxnc.org

Where People Work
Where People Live

Where People Work
Where People Live
And Where People Live and Work

Orange County Workers Driving in for Work
Growing Faster than Workers Driving Out
26,751 32,262
36,382
30,747
37,935
48,026
Driving Out for Work Driving In for Work
U.S. Census Bureau OnTheMap (LODES)

Orange Worker Inflows/Outflows (2017)
46,164 drive in; 37,073 drive out; and 19,953 live and work in Orange County

Where do Orange County Workers Live? (2017)
11,267
7,465
3,975
3,427
2,505
1,395
1,080
881
777
691
32,654
Durham city, NC
Chapel Hill town, NC
Carrboro town, NC
Raleigh city, NC
Cary town, NC
Burlington city, NC
Mebane city, NC
Hillsborough town, NC
Apex town, NC
Greensboro city, NC
All Other Locations

Change in Where Orange County Workers Live
Change in number or workers from 2007-2017
1,568
-644
-201
1,274
959
283
386
-89
284
164
3,640
Durham city, NC
Carrboro town, NC
Raleigh city, NC
Cary town, NC
Burlington city, NC
Mebane city, NC
Apex town, NC
Greensboro city, NC
All Other Locations

Where do Orange County Residents Work? (2017)
14,150
12,237
5,102
1,828
1,601
1,554
1,498
1,335
973
737
16,011
Durham city, NC
Raleigh city, NC
Cary town, NC
Charlotte city, NC
Carrboro town, NC
Greensboro city, NC
Burlington city, NC
Mebane city, NC
All Other Locations

Change in Where Orange County Residents Work
2007-2017
-2,485
-1,332
1,216
584
236
273
142
-5
37
166
2,395
Durham city, NC
Raleigh city, NC
Cary town, NC
Charlotte city, NC
Carrboro town, NC
Greensboro city, NC
Burlington city, NC
Mebane city, NC
All Other Locations

Chapel Hill Worker Inflows/Outflows (2017)
41,779 drive in; 14,008 drive out; and 6,627 live and work in Chapel Hill

Carrboro Worker Inflows/Outflows (2017)
3,666 drive in; 8,561 drive out; and 571 live and work in Carrboro

Hillsborough Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2017
4,593 drive in; 2,810 drive out; and 236 live and work in Hillsborough

Where do Hillsborough Workers Live? (2017)
630
236
184
172
137
110
102
78
62
56
3,062
Durham city, NC
Burlington city, NC
Mebane city, NC
Raleigh city, NC
Carrboro town, NC
Graham city, NC
Cary town, NC
Greensboro city, NC
All Other Locations

Where do Hillsborough Residents Work? (2017)
784
413
256
236
83
80
76
74
69
35
940
Durham city, NC
Raleigh city, NC
Greensboro city, NC
Burlington city, NC
Charlotte city, NC
Cary town, NC
Mebane city, NC
Carrboro town, NC
All Other Locations

Chatham Worker Inflows/Outflows (2017)
9,375 drive in, 21,897 drive out, and 5,140 live and work in Chatham

Where do Chatham County Residents Work? (2017)
3,856
2,907
2,618
1,376
1,337
1,306
855
747
727
438
10,870
Raleigh city, NC
Durham city, NC
Cary town, NC
Siler City town, NC
Pittsboro town, NC
Sanford city, NC
Charlotte city, NC
Greensboro city, NC
Morrisville town, NC
All Other Locations

Majority of Chatham Residents Work Elsewhere
Share of Chatham County resident workers who work outside of Chatham, 2002-2017
65%
81%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
U.S. Census

Majority of Orange Residents Work Elsewhere
Share of Orange County resident workers who work outside of Orange, 2002-2017
55%
65%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%

52%
65%
58%
70%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
Chatham County Orange County
Most County Jobs Filled by In-Commuters
Share of county jobs filled by workers who live outside of county, 2002-2017

Number of Orange County Workers Under 30 Living
and Working in Orange Highest Since 2009
4,567 3,956
3,331
4,032
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Number of Orange County Workers Under 30
Driving Out of the County for Work Declines
7,889 7,686
7,380
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Under 30 Workers Driving into Orange County
for Work at All Time High
8,774
8,840
10,351

Total People Under 30 Working in Orange
County Increasing From 2012 Low
13,847
12,199
12,975
14,383

BIG IDEAS. DRIVING
INNOVATION IN THE TRIANGLE
AND IN NORTH CAROLINA

BOXYARDRTP
• 40 Shipping Containers transformed into vibrant, local, dog-friendly entertainment complex
• 15,000 square feet (15 vendors) of creative eateries, service providers, and specialty shops
A UNIQUE CARGOTECTURE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE HEART OF THE TRIANGLE

Chapel Hill Transit Ridership Highest in 10 Years
Total ridership in millions, FY 2004-2019
5.27
5.78 5.95 5.98
6.40
7.23 7.01 6.99 6.94 6.92 6.94 6.73
6.33 6.18
6.59
7.03
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Chapel Hill Transit

GoTriangle Annual Ridership Steady since FY17
0.69 0.77 0.82 0.86 0.94
1.10 1.07
1.29
1.58
1.77 1.82 1.84 1.78
1.66 1.64 1.65
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Total ridership in millions, FY 2004-2019
GoTriangle

2018 Homes Sold in Orange County Exceeded
Pre-Recession Sales
1,751
1,275
1,143 1,143 1,128
1,277
1,630
1,433
1,650
1,815 1,782
1,869
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Triangle MLS

Chatham County Homes Sold Return to 2015 Levels
1,008
797
699
782
858
1,037
1,320 1,318 1,297
1,412
1,323 1,297
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Median Residential Closing Price (2018)
Triangle MLS
$255,000
$305,000
$388,000
$315,000
$377,000
Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS
District

Median Price per Square Foot (2018)
$134 $139
$157 $158
$175
Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS
District
Triangle MLS

Median Residential Closing Price
Triangle MLS
$282,500
$388,000
$260,000
$315,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chatham Orange

Chatham New Construction Sales Dip,
But Outpace Orange
New construction as percent of total sales (2007-2018)
16%
34%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Orange Chatham

New Construction Activity Concentrated in Wake
New, For Sale Housing Units, Built 2010-2018
1,641
3,014
6,499
33,539
Orange
Chatham
Durham
Wake

New Construction Highest Share of Sales in
Chatham
Available Housing Units Built 2010-2018, as a Percentage of all Sales
3.0%
10.5%
5.4%
9.0%
Orange
Chatham
Durham
Wake

Steady 4-Year Growth in Regional Home Prices
Change in Median Sale Price, 2015 vs. 2018
Triangle MLS
32%
22%
16%
9%
11%
Durham
Wake
Chatham
Orange
CHCCS District

37% of Homes in CHCCS District and 47% of All
Orange County Homes Sold for <$300K (2018)
20%
19%
21%
27%
18%
40%
17%
17%
17%
21%
26%
15%
14%
20%
6%
Orange County (All)
CHCCS District
Not CHCCS
<$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999
$400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more
Triangle MLS

Thank you Brett Bushnell
Tri Local Realty

2018-19 Municipal Property Tax Rates
Cary, 0.35
Apex, 0.415
Raleigh, 0.4382
Chapel Hill, 0.528
Durham, 0.5786
Carrboro, 0.5944
Hillsborough, 0.62
Salisbury, 0.7169
Huntersville
Cary
Morrisville
Apex
Asheville
Raleigh
Concord
Charlotte
Wilmington
Fayetteville
Greenville
Chapel Hill
Gastonia
Hickory
Wilson
Durham
Carrboro
Burlington
Winston-Salem
Monroe
Hillsborough
Kannapolis
Greensboro
Jacksonville
High Point
Goldsboro
Rocky Mount
Salisbury
NC Department of Revenue

2018-19 All Jurisdictions Property Tax Rates
Cary, 1.0044
Apex, 1.0694
Raleigh, 1.0926
Durham, 1.3565
Hillsborough, 1.4704
Chapel Hill, 1.5802
Carrboro, 1.6466
Cary
Morrisville
Wilmington
Apex
Asheville
Raleigh
Huntersville
Hickory
Burlington
Concord
Greenville
Fayetteville
Wilson
Charlotte
Goldsboro
Winston-Salem
Jacksonville
Monroe
Kannapolis
Durham
Greensboro
High Point
Salisbury
Gastonia
Hillsborough
Rocky Mount
Chapel Hill
Carrboro

2018-19 Tax Assessed on Median Home Value
Burlington, $1,376
Winston-Salem,
$1,795
Asheville, $3,080
Raleigh, $3,009
Durham, $3,093
Cary, $3,743
Apex, $3,747
Hillsborough, $3,752
Carrboro, $4,579
Chapel Hill, $5,978
Goldsboro
Rocky Mount
Burlington
Fayetteville
Greenville
High Point
Hickory
Winston-Salem
Wilson
Jacksonville
Kannapolis
Greensboro
Salisbury
Gastonia
Monroe
Wilmington
Concord
Asheville
Charlotte
Raleigh
Durham
Morrisville
Huntersville
Cary
Apex
Hillsborough
Carrboro
Chapel Hill
NC Department of Revenue | Zillow

Share of People Renting Declines in Carrboro and
Hillsborough
Percent renter-occupied units, 2012 vs. 2017
40%
65%
50%
44%
33%
20%
45%
34% 33%
38%
57%
52%
39%
35%
24%
47%
36% 35%
2008-2012 ACS 2013-2017 ACS

What People are Paying for Rent in Orange County
Gross Rent Paid, ACS 2013-2017
4%
43%
36%
17%
Less than $500
$500 to $999
$1,000 to $1,499
$1,500 or more

What People are Paying for Rent in the Region
Median Rent, 2012 vs. 2017
$912 $886
$959 $916 $896
$954
$1,026 $983
$1,130
$937 $966
$1,043
Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Durham Wake
2008-2012 ACS 2013-2017 ACS
5-Year American Community Survey

Renters Paying More Than 30% of Income on
Rent Declines
Orange County Gross Rent as Percentage of Household Income
26%
25%
48%
21%
25%
55%
Less than 20%
20-29%
30% or more
2008-2012 ACS 2013-2017 ACS
5-Year American Community Survey

UNC Student Enrollment by Housing Type (2017)
Resident
Student
Housing
27%
Married Student Housing
2%
Off-Campus
64%
Fraternity
& Sorority,
3%
Other University Affiliated
Housing (Granville Towers) 4%

Percent of Undergrads in Campus Housing
2018
84%
50%
48%
44%
43%
40%
39%
34%
26%
25%
19%
Duke University
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
University of Southern California
University of Maryland – College Park
University of Miami
UNC Ashville
University of Virginia
University of Michigan – Ann Arbor
University of Wisconsin at Madison
East Carolina University
University of Texas – Austin
Carolina Housing

Number of Undergrads in Campus Housing
2018
12,192
10,000
9,479
7,850
7,600
7,400
6,235
5,400
4,310
3,600
1,400
University of Maryland – College Park
University of Michigan – Ann Arbor
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
University of Wisconsin at Madison
University of Southern California
University of Texas – Austin
University of Virginia
Duke University
University of Miami
Northwestern University
UNC Ashville
Carolina Housing

Speaking of Housing
A Thank You

Orange County Taxable Sales (in millions)
1,128 1,146 1,130 1,082 1,135 1,133 1,155
1,264
1,505 1,561 1,636
1,764 1,766
FY 05-06 – FY 17-18 (inflation adjusted $2018)

Orange County Sales Tax Collections (in millions)
$40.8 $41.8 $41.5 $41.0
$52.5
$58.8
$51.5
$56.1
$67.8 $70.5 $74.8
$82.3 $84.3
FY06 – FY18
*2014-15 Amended

Chapel Hill & Carrboro Receive 30% of Orange
County Sales Tax Distributions
County sales tax distributions, FY2018
67%
8%
22%
0.01% 3% 1%
Orange
County Total
Carrboro Chapel Hill Durham Hillsborough Mebane

Dollar Amount
FY 2018 County Sales Tax Distributions
$37,254,011
$4,478,959
$12,346,391
$6,759 $1,445,903 $441,692
Orange
County Total
Carrboro Chapel Hill Durham Hillsborough Mebane

Visitor Spending and
Economic Impact

Orange County Average Daily Hotel Occupancy
59% 60%
64% 65% 65%
70% 71% 70%
67% 67%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2009-2018
Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau

Orange County Hotels Average Daily Rate Increases
$107.35
$102.12 $101.61
$104.38
$106.49
$113.65
$121.48
$124.43
$126.22 $126.55
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Orange County Average Hotel Revenue per Room
Increases
$63.34 $60.87 $65.15 $68.00 $69.60
$79.45
$85.69 $87.18 $84.24 $84.54
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2009-2018

Orange County Total Tax Revenues from Tourism
Rises to $15.6 million, All Time High
(Inflation Adjusted $2018 in millions)
VisitNC
$9.3
$9.2
$9.5
$9.2
$9.2
$9.3
$9.5
$9.4
$9.4
$9.0
$9.7
$9.6
$9.3
$9.6
$10.0
$10.5
$10.9
$10.9
$11.1
$3.4
$3.3
$3.5
$3.4
$3.4
$3.5
$3.6
$3.7
$3.7
$3.3
$3.4
$3.4
$3.6
$3.8
$4.1
$4.2
$4.3
$4.4
$4.5
State Tax Receipts Local Tax Receipts

Orange County Local Tourism Tax Revenue
Rises to All Time High of $4.5 million$2.4
$2.4
$2.5
$2.5
$2.6
$2.7
$2.9
$3.1
$3.1
$2.8
$2.9
$3.0
$3.3
$3.6
$3.9
$4.0
$4.2
$4.3
$4.5
VisitNC
(Unadjusted Values in Millions)

Domestic Visitor Expenditures on Steady Increase
$108 million
$208 million
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
VisitNC
In millions, unadjusted

Three Population Projection Models – Annual
Change
20-Year Exponential, 20-Year Linear, 10-Year Linear
Geography
Exponential
(1990-2010)
Linear
(1990-2010)
Linear
(2010-2017)
Orange 1.8%
Chatham 2.5%
Carrboro 2.4%
Chapel Hill 2.0%
Hillsborough 1.8%

Change
Geography
Exponential
(1990-2010)
Linear
(1990-2010)
Linear
(2010-2017)
Orange 1,553 people
Chatham 1,237people
Carrboro 372 people
Chapel Hill 926people
Hillsborough 91 people

Change
Geography
Exponential
(1990-2010)
Linear
(1990-2010)
Linear
(2010-2017)
Orange 1,496people
Chatham 1,171people
Carrboro 212 people
Chapel Hill 457people
Hillsborough 76people

How many people in 2050? Orange County
Orange County Planning | Carolina Demography
271,957
213,701
133,801
193,626
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2018)

How many people in 2050? Chatham County
170,482
112,997
63,505
110,341
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

How many people in 2050? Carrboro
50,999
34,478
19,582
28,067
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

How many people in 2050? Chapel Hill
125,104
94,277
57,233
75,497
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

How many people in 2050? Hillsborough
12,410
9,735
6,087
9,122
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

What we did not cover…
• Cost of Living
• Retail Sales
• Homelessness
• ELI
• Water
• Employment/Occupation
• Environment
• Non Profits

Creighton Blackwell
Chair, The Chamber’s Board of Directors
#CHCSOTC

Submit your ideas online or by text
BigBoldIdeas.org
919-525-1395

BIG BOLD IDEAS STEERING COMMITTEE
Forty community leaders from diverse backgrounds and all sectors working together to launch a
powerful new community-wide civic improvement initiative, called “Big Bold ideas.”

Big Bold Ideas should:
1) have a lasting and positive impact on our community,
2) be ambitious, measurable and accomplishable, and
3) be something you are willing to work on, but cannot
accomplish alone.
EXAMPLES:
“All children read on grade level by grade 3”
“We create 1000 units of affordable housing in the next 10 years”
“We build 100 miles of greenways and bike trails by 2030”
Submit online at BigBoldIdeas.org or by text 919-525-1395

TIMELINE:
1) Submit Ideas now through October 12
2) Online community crowd-sorting of ideas
3) November 7 - Community Selection Conference
Implementation announcements to come at The
Chamber’s Annual Meeting January 31.
Submit online at BigBoldIdeas.org or by text 919-525-1395

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