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2018 State of the
Community Report
#CHCSOTC
Reagan Greene Pruitt
2018 Chamber Board Chair
2018 State of the Community Report
#CHCSOTC
Leadership Graduation Sponsor
Denny Marcin
Chamber Board of Directors
2018 State of the Community Report
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
2018 Leadership Class President
Kate Kryder
Co-Curricular Leadership Development Program Coordinator
UNC-Chapel Hill
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Bonnie
Hammersley
Orange County
Roger Stancil
Town of Chapel Hill
Data and Research Partners
Presenting Sponsor
Jessica Aylor
Interim CEO and Vice President of
Community Investment
2018 State of the Community Report
#CHCSOTC
Aaron Nelson
President and CEO Chapel Hill-Carrboro
Chamber of Commerce
2018 State of the Community Report
Presenting Sponsor
Program Sponsor
Breakfast Sponsor
Networking Sponsor
Medical practice that provides
comprehensive care for the whole person
in a non-judgmental environment.
Leadership Graduation Sponsor
Contributing Sponsors
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Data Produced in Partnership with:
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Official Data Research Partner
11th Annual
State of the Community Report
#CHCSOTC
Preview
• Demography
• Migration
• Commuting
• Education
• Housing
• Wages
• Poverty
• Health
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
#CHCSOTC
A Few Things First…
• Percentage Point vs Percent (10% to 11%)
• Data Lag
• Adjusting for Inflation
• County Lines v zip codes v city limits
• 5 year averages
• The Quarter and the Ping Pong Paddle
2018 State of the Community Report
Lets Begin
Where am I
Add #
Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Orange County
Total Value Per
Acre
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Source: Urban3
Source 2012-2016 American Community Survey
Orange County Land Distribution
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Chapel Hill 5% Carrboro 2%
Hillsborough 1%
Mebane
0.5%
Rest of
Orange
92%
Southern
Orange
County
Planning
Jurisdictions
Town of Chapel Hill
#CHCSOTC
Orange County 56,494 Housing Units Distribution Percentage
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Source 2012-2016 American Community Survey
Chapel Hill
36%
Carrboro
17%
Hillsborough
4%
Mebane
2%
Rest of
Orange
41%
Who am I?
Some Demography
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Chapel Hill Second Highest in Nation with BA+
Percent of Residents 25+ with Bachelors degree or higher (2012-16)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Cambridge (MA), 74.9%
Chapel Hill, 74.6%
Carrboro, 69.1%
Orange County, 57.7%
Charlottesville (VA), 50.0%
Chatham County, 38.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Cambridge (MA)
Chapel Hill (NC)
Ann Arbor (MI)
Boulder (CO)
Berkeley (CA)
Carrboro (NC)
Evanston (IL)
Amherst (MA)
Sunnyvale (CA)
Corvallis (OR)
Orange County (NC)
Santa Clara (CA)
Bloomington (IN)
Fort Collins (CO)
Burlington (VT)
Charlottesville (VA)
Austin (TX)
Tallahassee (FL)
Boston (MA)
Gainesville (FL)
Athens-Clarke County (GA)
San Jose (CA)
Chatham County (NC)
Columbus (OH)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Orange Highest Per Capita Income in State (2016)
Source: 5-Year American Community Survey
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Orange
$37,103 Chatham
$35,109
North Carolina
$26,779
Scotland
$16,192
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
Orange
Wake
Chatham
Mecklenburg
Durham
Union
NewHanover
Dare
Moore
Carteret
Brunswick
Iredell
Currituck
Davie
Polk
Buncombe
Cabarrus
Forsyth
Guilford
NorthCarolina
Henderson
Haywood
Camden
Lincoln
Perquimans
Transylvania
Craven
Macon
Pamlico
Catawba
Nash
Pitt
Pender
Alamance
Beaufort
Gaston
Gates
Granville
Johnston
Cumberland
Davidson
Clay
Watauga
Onslow
Pasquotank
Wilson
Rowan
Franklin
Lee
Ashe
Madison
Chowan
Mitchell
Stanly
Person
Stokes
Jackson
Yadkin
Randolph
Wayne
Avery
Yancey
Surry
Rockingham
Harnett
Martin
Columbus
Alleghany
Burke
Lenoir
Cleveland
Caldwell
Alexander
Washington
Jones
Swain
Caswell
Wilkes
Halifax
Montgomery
Sampson
Rutherford
Warren
Bladen
Richmond
Cherokee
McDowell
Northampton
Graham
Hyde
Hoke
Vance
Greene
Edgecombe
Duplin
Hertford
Anson
Bertie
Tyrrell
Robeson
Scotland
2016 Median Household Income
$65,299 $63,303
$54,255
$46,060
$76,173
$50,595
$57,617
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Durham
County
Alamance
County
Wake County North
Carolina
United States
Source: U.S. Census Bureau SAIPE
#CHCSOTC
Median Household Income 1998-2016 (Adjusted for
Inflation) $2016
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
$75,000
$80,000
$85,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Orange County Chatham County Durham County
Wake County North Carolina United States
#CHCSOTC
Median Household Income 1998-2016 (Adjusted for
Inflation) $2016
$65,299$61,796
$54,255
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Orange County Durham County
Orange County Shows Growth in Inflation Adjusted
Median Family Income (1998-2016)
Dollar Change in Median Household Income From 1998 to 2016 (adjusted for inflation) $2016
$3,161
($2,696)
($7,541)
($8,367)
($5,057)
($2,385)
$363
Orange County
Chatham County
Durham County
Alamance County
Wake County
North Carolina
United States
Orange County Shows Growth in Inflation Adjusted
Median Family Income (1998-2016)
Percent Change in Median Household Income From 1998 to 2016 (adjusted for inflation) Inflation Adjusted
5.1%
-4.1%
-12.2%
-15.4%
-6.2%
-4.5%
0.6%
Orange County
Chatham County
Durham County
Alamance County
Wake County
North Carolina
United States
Orange County Population by Race
Source: US Census Bureau; Orange County Planning
80% 76% 71% 69%
16%
14%
12% 11%
1%
4%
8% 9%
3% 4% 7% 8%
2% 3% 3%
1990 2000 2010 2017
White Black Hispanic Asian Other or Multiracial
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Changes By Decade
Orange Minority Population by Race
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts
14,847 16,643
12,336
11,823
3,232
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1990 2000 2010 2017
Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Chapel Hill Minority Population by Race
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning
4,840 5,460
3,638
1,678
6,786
1,282
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1990 2000 2010
Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Carrboro Minority Population by Race
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning
1,916 1,933
2,706
1,592
430
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1990 2000 2010
Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
Growth History
Population Growth
Jurisdiction 2010 2017 Pop Growth Growth Rate
Orange County 133,688 144,946 11,258 8.4% (1.1% PY)
Hillsborough 6,613 7,231 618 7.9% (1.2% PY)
Carrboro 19,564 21,544 1,980 10.1% (1.3% PY)
Chapel Hill 57,221 59,862 2,641 4.6% (0.6% PY)
North Carolina 9,535,721 10,273,419 737,698 7.7% (1.0% PY)
Note: showing April 1, 2010 Estimates Base
Source U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Orange County Population Growth Slowest Since 1960s
Numeric Growth By Decade, 1930-2010
Source U.S. Census Bureau
1,901
11,363
8,535
14,737
19,348
16,796
24,376
15,574
11,258
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-
2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
9.0%
49.3%
24.8%
34.3% 33.5%
21.8%
26.0%
13.2%
8.4%
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Source U.S. Census Bureau
Orange County Population Percentage Growth
Slowest Since 1930s
Percent Population Increase By Decade, 1930-2010
Chatham County Grew By 7,993 in First 8 Years of this Decade
Numeric Growth By Decade, 1930-2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
549 666
1,393
2,769
3,861
5,344
10,570
14,176
7,993
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017
549 666
1,393
2,769
3,861
5,344
10,570
14,176
7,993
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017
Source U.S. Census Bureau
2.3% 2.7%
5.5%
10.3%
13.1%
16.0%
27.3% 28.7%
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
2000s Fastest Growth Decade for Chatham County
Percent Population Increase By Decade, 1930-2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
2.3% 2.7%
5.5%
10.3%
13.1%
16.0%
27.3%
28.7%
12.6%
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017
7,993
11,193
11,258
41,656
171,144
Chatham County
Alamance County
Orange County
Durham County
Wake County
Population Gains Since 2010 Smallest in Chatham
Numeric Population Growth, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2017
#CHCSOTC
Source U.S. Census Bureau
2018 State of the Community Report
Migration Drove County Population Growth 2010 - 2017
Components of Orange County's estimated 11,258 person growth, 2010- 2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Note: Not shown is the estimated loss of 2 individuals that cannot be attributed to births, deaths, or migration (residual)
Source U.S. Census Bureau
11,258
8,872
-5,565
2,802
5,159
Total Change Births Deaths Domestic Migration
International
Migration
#CHCSOTC
Dr. Rebecca Tippett
2018 State of the Community Report
Migration
With Dr. Rebecca Tippett, Carolina Demography
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
AgeSource: Winkler et al., 2013
NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
No Net Migration
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Net Out Migration
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Net In Migration
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Orange
Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Orange
Pitt
Watauga
Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Youth Drain
Halifax
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Employment Center
Wake
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Family Suburbs
Johnston
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Chatham Moore
Retiree Destinations
Chatham & Moore
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Orange
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
White
Black
Other
Hispanic
Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Black
Other
Hispanic
Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Population Projecting
Three Population Projection Models – Annual Change
20-Year Exponential, 20-Year Linear, 10-Year Linear
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Geography
Exponential
(1990-2010)
Linear
(1990-2010)
Linear
(2010-2017)
Orange 1.8% 1,553 people 1,999 people
Chatham 2.5% 1,237people 1,102people
Carrboro 2.4% 372 people 273 people
Chapel Hill 2.0% 926people 364people
Hillsborough 1.8% 91 people 85people
How many people in 2050? Orange County
3 Population Projection Models
Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
271,957
213,701
133,801
195,914
0
75,000
150,000
225,000
300,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
How many people in 2050? Chapel Hill
3 Population Projection Models
Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
125,104
94,277
2010-2017
57,233
71,804
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
How many people in 2050? Carrboro
3 Population Projection Models
Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
50,999
34,478
19,582
30,506
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
How many people in 2050? Chatham County
3 Population Projection Models
Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
170,482
112,997
107,604
0
75,000
150,000
225,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
Carrboro Remains One of the Most Densely Populated
Communities in NC
People per square mile by census and using ‘Linear 1990-2010’ projections
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning
2,970
3,437
3,754
3,108
3,586
4,158
1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected
2,970
3,437
3,754
3,031
3,608
4,184
1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Chapel Hill Population Density To Increase
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
2,583
2,342 2,330
2,710
3,148
3,587
1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected
People per square mile by census and using ‘Linear 1990-2010’ projections
4,246
4,116
4,094
3,948
3,472
3,108
3,037
2,710
3,587
Charlottesville (VA)
Burlington (VT)
Ann Arbor (MI)
Boulder (CO)
Bloomington (IN)
Carrboro (NC)
Madison (WI)
Chapel Hill (NC)
Chapel Hill 2030
Chapel Hill in 2030 is Less Dense than Most Peers
People Per Square Mile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Its time to get up and go to work
Orange Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015
43,036 drive in, 35,818 drive out, and 20,406 live and work in Orange
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
61% of Orange County Households Have 2+ Cars
Share of Households by Number of Vehicles Available, 2012-16
Source: 2012-16 American Community Survey
No Vehicles
5%
1 Vehicle
34%
2 Vehicles
38%
3 or More
Vehicles
23%
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Fewer Orange, Chatham Workers Drive Alone to Work
Percent of commuters who drive alone to work, 2012-16
Source: Vehicle Availability and Commuting, 2012-16 American Community Survey
81%
67%
78%
84%
76% 79%
North Carolina Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Chapel Hill Transit Ridership Down
Total Chapel Hill Transit Ridership (in millions), FY2004-FY2017
5.27
7.23
6.94
6.73
6.33 6.18
4.0
6.0
8.0
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
(millions)
Source: Chapel Hill Transit
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
0.71 0.75 0.82 0.87 0.94
1.14 1.09
1.29
1.58
1.77 1.82 1.84 1.78
1.66
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
GoTriangle Ridership Declines 10% from 2015 Peak
Total Triangle Transit Ridership, FY2004-FY2017
Source: Triangle Transit
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
High Share of Orange, Chatham Workers Work from Home
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
4.8%
8.2%
7.8%
2.7%
4.8%
7.6%
North Carolina Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
52,698
63,442
48,702
56,224
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Jobs in Orange Workers in Orange
County Job Growth has not Consistently Translated to More
Workers Living in Orange
Number of jobs in Orange vs. workers in Orange, 2002-2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
While Most Orange County Residents Work Elsewhere,
Percent Driving Out for Work is Declining from Peak
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
55%
66%
64%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Share of Orange County resident workers who work outside of Orange County, 2002-2015
Younger Workers
Young Workers Living and Working in Orange Increasing
Number living and working in Orange County, 29 or younger, highest since 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
4,567
3,625 3,751
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Fewer Workers Under 29 Commuting Out of Orange
Number of young workers commuting out of Orange County declining
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
7,889
7,495
6,956
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Total People 29 or Younger Working Orange County
Increasing (2012 – 2015)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
12,199
12,975
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
New Young Workers Driving Into Orange for Work Increasing
2009 through 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
8,966
9,224
8,500
8,600
8,700
8,800
8,900
9,000
9,100
9,200
9,300
9,400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Who Works Where
14,228
12,088
4,662
1909
1635
1596
1324
1297
1037
683
15,765
Chapel Hill town, NC
Durham city, NC
Raleigh city, NC
Hillsborough town, NC
Carrboro town, NC
Cary town, NC
Greensboro city, NC
Charlotte city, NC
Burlington city, NC
Mebane city, NC
All Other Locations
Where Do Orange County Residents Work?
Location of Primary Job, 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Where Orange County Residents Work is Changing
Location of Primary Job, 2005-2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
-2,383
1,141
1,971
259
97
609
298
228
266
14 3,509
Chapel Hill town, NC
Durham city, NC
Raleigh city, NC
Hillsborough town, NC
Carrboro town, NC
Cary town, NC
Greensboro city, NC
Charlotte city, NC
Burlington city, NC
Mebane city, NC
All Other Locations
Chapel Hill Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015
38,804 drive in, 18,697 drive out, and 11,106 live and work in Chapel Hill/Carrboro
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Carrboro Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015
3,623 drive in, 8,524 drive out, and 645 live and work in Carrboro
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Chatham Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015
8,997 drive in, 20,551 drive out, and 5,124 live and Work in Chatham
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
46% of Chatham Workers Driving Alone Travel 30+ Minutes
Percent of those who drive alone to work commuting 30+ minutes, 2012-16
Source: Vehicle Availability and Commuting, 2012-16 American Community Survey
31% 29%
46%
31%
24%
33%
North Carolina Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Majority of Chatham Residents Work Elsewhere
Share of Chatham County resident workers who work outside of Chatham, 2002-2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
65%
81%
80%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Now time to work
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
We begin with employment
Monthly Unemployment Rate (Unadjusted)
1/2004 to 4/2018
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14% 1/2004
7/2004
1/2005
7/2005
1/2006
7/2006
1/2007
7/2007
1/2008
7/2008
1/2009
7/2009
1/2010
7/2010
1/2011
7/2011
1/2012
7/2012
1/2013
7/2013
1/2014
7/2014
1/2015
7/2015
1/2016
7/2016
1/2017
7/2017
1/2018
North Carolina Orange County Chapel Hill Chatham County
Source: BLS LAUS
Annual Unemployment Rate (Unadjusted)
Unemployment Rate, 1997-2017
Source: NC Department of Commerce
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
10.9%
6.6%
Orange
3.8%
6.6%
Chapel Hill,
4.6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
UnemploymentRate
North Carolina Orange County Chapel Hill Chatham County
Source: BLS LAUS
Number of Unemployed Persons, 2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
1,379 1,365
2,921
Chapel Hill Chatham County Orange County
Orange County Employment Patterns
Orange Top 5 Specialized Industries, by Employment, 2016 (NACO)
Source: National Association of Counties
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
41,300 jobs |
44.6%
6,700 jobs |
7.2%
5,400 jobs |
5.8%
2,000 jobs |
2.1%
170 jobs | 0.2%
State & Local
Government
Food & Hospitality
Professional &
Business Services
Educational
Services
Mining
Minority Business Ownership Rates
Orange County & Municipalities Fall Below U.S. and Statewide Averages
10.3%
11.8%
13.5%
13.7%
14.0%
14.9%
15.2%
20.5%
20.8%
21.1%
22.8%
26.3%
28.8%
36.7%
Bloomington (IN)
Chatham County (NC)
Madison (WI)
Chapel Hill (NC)
Orange County (NC)
Ann Arbor (MI)
Carrboro (NC)
Johnston County (NC)
Alamance County (NC)
Hillsborough (NC)
North Carolina
Wake County (NC)
United States
Durham County (NC)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Higher share of women-owned firms in unincorporated Orange County
#CHCSOTC 2017 State of the Community Report
30.2%
31.2%
32.2%
32.4%
34.2%
34.6%
35.4%
35.5%
35.6%
35.6%
35.8%
35.9%
36.3%
41.7%
Bloomington (IN)
Hillsborough (NC)
Johnston County (NC)
Ann Arbor (MI)
Chapel Hill (NC)
Alamance County (NC)
Madison (WI)
Chatham County (NC)
North Carolina
Wake County (NC)
United States
Carrboro (NC)
Orange County (NC)
Durham County (NC)
Female Business Ownership Rates
Total Non-Profit Employment
Nonprofit Employee County by County (2015)
29,808
1,681
42,373
Orange Chatham Durham
Source Center for Nonprofits
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
47% of Orange County workers employed in Nonprofit
Nonprofit employment as percent of total employment, 2015
47%
12%
23%
Orange Chatham Durham
Source: Center for Nonprofits
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Orange County Major Employers 2017 Q4
1. UNC Chapel Hill
2. UNC Health Care System
3. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
4. Orange County Schools
5. UNC Physicians Network LLC, Education
& Health Services
6. Local Government
7. Town Of Chapel Hill Inc
8. Eurosport
9. General Electric Company
10. Aramark Food And Support Services G.
11. Wal-Mart Associates Inc.
12. Harris Teeter
Source: NC Department of Commerce
13. A K G Of America Inc.
14. Food Lion
15. The Chapel Hill Residential
16. United Parcel Service Inc.
17. P H E Inc.
18. Summit Consulting-Engineering
19. Weaver Street Market
20. Performance BMW
21. Wellspring Grocery
22. Residential Services Inc.
23. U S Postal Service
24. Carolina Inn
25. The Arc Of The Triangle
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Sales and Economy
Taxable Sales Grows to $1.76 Billion
Orange County Taxable Sales (in millions), FY06 - FY18
Source: NC Department of Revenue
*Change in reporting
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$908 $948 $972 $927 $988 $1,017 $1,058
$1,176
$1,422 $1,477
$1,568
$1,726 $1,766
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15* 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Annual Growth of Orange County Taxable Sales
Change (in millions) from Taxable Sales of Prior Year FY05-FY18
Source: NC Department of Revenue
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$41 $23
-$45
$61
$30 $41
$117
$246
$55
$91
$158
$40
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Orange County Percent Change of Taxable Sales of Prior Year
FY05-FY18
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
4%
2%
-5%
7%
3% 4%
11%
21%
4%
6%
10%
2%
Sales Tax Collections Grow to $84 Million
Orange County Gross Sales Tax Collections (in millions), FY06-FY18
Source: NC Department of Revenue
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$41 $42 $42 $41
$52
$59
$52
$56
$68 $70
$75
$82 $84
Distribution of $56 Million in Orange County Sales Tax Distributions
Municipality share of Orange County Local Option Sales Tax (LOST) Revenue Distributions, FY 2016-17
Source: NC Department of Revenue
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$37 million
$4.5 million
$12.3 million
$6,759 $1.4 million $441,692
Orange County
Total
Carrboro Chapel Hill Durham Hillsborough Mebane
Chapel Hill & Carrboro Receive 30% of Orange County Sales Tax
Distributions )
Municipality share of Orange County Local Option Sales Tax (LOST) Revenue Distributions, FY 2016-17
Source: NC Department of Revenue
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
67%
8%
22%
0.01% 3% 1%
Orange County
Total
Carrboro Chapel Hill Durham Hillsborough Mebane
2017-18 County Tax Disbursements
Sales Tax Per Capita FY2016 and FY2017
Source: NC Department of Revenue
$175
$157
$251
$172
$154
$177 $177
$255
$182
$156
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
2016 2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Sales Tax Per Capita Rankings
Ranking of 100 NC Counties (1=highest), 2013-2017
Source: NC Department of Revenue
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
81
31
48
55
9
0
20
40
60
80
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CountyRanking(1to100)
Orange Chatham Durham
Total Household Income (billions)
2017 Inflation Adjusted Dollars
Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce
$3.99
$2.75
$9.86
$4.86
Alamance
Chatham
Durham
Orange
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Average Household Retail Demand
2016
$51,358
$32,097
$44,329
$38,192
$48,176
Orange County
Alamance County
Chatham County
Durham County
Wake County
Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Number of Households (2016)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
64,369
28,568
123,697
50,203
Alamance County
Chatham County
Durham County
Orange County
$2.1 $1.3
$4.7
$2.6
$18.7
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
Retail Demand 2016 in Billions (revised)
Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce
Values shown in billions
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
The Retail Gap
#CHCSOTC 2017 State of the Community Report
Orange Had Largest Retail Gap in 2016 (revised)
Retail Potential vs. Retail Sales (in billions), 2016
Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$2.1
$1.3
$4.7
$2.6
$1.8
$0.6
$4.6
$1.8
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange
Total Retail Potential Total Sales
Orange Had Largest Retail Gap in 2016
Retail Gap– Demand Minus Supply (in Millions), 2016 revised
Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$269
$648
$81
$796
$623
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Retail Leakage occurs when local people spend a
larger amount of money on goods than local
businesses report in sales, usually due to people
traveling to a neighboring town to buy goods.
Orange County Draws Outside Dollars in 4 Categories
2016 Retail Leakage (in Millions)
Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$85.7
$49.5
$13.9
$0.2
-$28.3
-$30.7
-$45.4
-$47.1
-$50.9
-$52.7
-$87.8
-$280.8
-$321.9
Nonstore Retailers
Sports/Hobby/Book/Music Stores
Gasoline Stations
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Furniture/Home Furnishing Stores
Food Services & Drinking Places
Bldg/Garden Equip/Supply Stores
Health and Personal Care Stores
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Clothing/Accessories Stores
Food and Beverage Stores
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
General Merchandise Stores
Chatham County Draws Outside Dollars in 1 Category
2016 Retail Leakage (in Millions)
Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$10.7
-$9.9
-$20.3
-$21.6
-$23.0
-$29.5
-$40.8
-$41.0
-$41.3
-$41.8
-$73.3
-$99.1
-$217.4
Sports/Hobby/Book/Music Stores
Gasoline Stations
Furniture/Home Furnishing Stores
Nonstore Retailers
Bldg/Garden Equip/Supply Stores
Health and Personal Care Stores
Clothing/Accessories Stores
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Food Services & Drinking Places
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Food and Beverage Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Public Schools
Total Per Pupil Expenditure (2016-17)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
$8,588
$8,742
$10,180
$10,641
$11,012
$11,601
$12,017
Alamance-Burlington Schools
Wake County Schools
Chatham County Schools
Durham County Schools
Orange County Schools
Asheville City Schools
Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
Local Per Pupil Expenditure (2016-17)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
$1,826
$2,537
$3,463
$3,556
$4,281
$4,880
$6,151
Alamance-Burlington Schools
Wake County Schools
Chatham County Schools
Durham County Schools
Orange County Schools
Asheville City Schools
Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
Average SAT Evidence Based Reading and Writing (ERW)
Score 2017
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
568
573
621
522
539
520
542
Wake County Schools
Orange County Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
Durham Public Schools
Chatham County Schools
Alamance-Burlington Schools
North Carolina (All Students)
Average SAT Math Score 2017
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
562
559
611
505
524
521
532
Wake County Schools
Orange County Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
Durham Public Schools
Chatham County Schools
Alamance-Burlington Schools
North Carolina (All Students)
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
Average SAT Total Scores 2017
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
1,130
1,133 1,231
1,027
1,063
1,041
1,074
Wake County Schools
Orange County Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
Durham Public Schools
Chatham County Schools
Alamance-Burlington Schools
North Carolina (All Students)
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
EOG Math Grade 3, 2016-17
College and Career Ready (Level 4 or 5)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
60%
50%
70%
38%
58%
47%
52%
Wake County Schools Orange County
Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro
City Schools
Durham Public
Schools
Chatham County
Schools
Alamance-Burlington
Schools
North Carolina (All
Students)
EOG Math Grade 8, 2015-16
College and Career Ready (Level 4 or 5)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
48% 48%
66%
28%
45%
38% 40%
Wake County
Schools
Orange County
Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro
City Schools
Durham Public
Schools
Chatham County
Schools
Alamance-Burlington
Schools
North Carolina (All
Students)
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
EOG Reading Grade 8, 2016-17
Grade Level Proficient (Level 3+)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
63%
55%
72%
41%
57%
47%
54%
Wake County Schools Orange County
Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro
City Schools
Durham Public
Schools
Chatham County
Schools
Alamance-Burlington
Schools
North Carolina (All
Students)
EOG Reading Grade 3, 2016-17
Grade Level Proficient (Level 3+)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
67%
56%
74%
45%
60%
53%
58%
Wake County Schools Orange County
Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro
City Schools
Durham Public
Schools
Chatham County
Schools
Alamance-Burlington
Schools
North Carolina (All
Students)
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
Local School Dropout Rate Declines
2000 through 2017
Source: NC DPI
1.9%
CHCCS
0.8%
5.2%
Orange
2.0%
5.7% NC
2.3%
CHCCS Orange NC
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
Graduation Rates in Neighboring Districts Nearly
Equal to CHCCS
Share of 9th Grade Cohort that Graduated in 4 Years, by Graduation Year
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
CHCCS
90%
90%
Orange
67%
89%
Chatham
67%
88%
NC
68% 87%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year of Graduation
CHCCS Orange Chatham NC
But there are challenges to
address
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Grades 3-8 Math EOG "College and Career Ready", 2017
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
28%
23% 26% 23%
28% 26% 30%
60% 56%
65%
72%
66%
83%
74%
NC Alamance Chatham Durham Orange CHCCS Wake
Black White
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
And Some Areas of
Improvement
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficient
2015-2016 vs. 2016-2017 Grade 3 Proficient (Level 3+)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
80
47
39
92
77
55
43
89
Asian Black Hispanic White
2016 2017
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Subgroups
Grade 3 Reading EOG "Grade Level Proficient"
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
44
52 49
26
52
56 58
36
Black Hispanic EDS SWD
2016 2017
Orange County Schools EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficient
2015-16 vs. 2016-2017 Grade 3 Proficient (Level 3+)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
44
34
71
35
29
74
Black Hispanic White
2016 2017
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
Chatham County Schools EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficient
2015-16 vs. 2016-17 Grade 3 Proficient (Level 3+)
39 36
72
35
42
78
Black Hispanic White
2016 2017
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 "Grade Level Proficient"
2014-2017
79.1 77.4
34
54.5
43.6 42.8
91.5 88.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
2014 2015 2016 2017
Asian Black Hispanic White
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 "Grade Level Proficient“
2014-2017
34
54.5
43.6 42.8
2014 2015 2016 2017
Black Hispanic
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Orange County Schools Percentage Point "Gap" between
White and Black Student Performance
Grade 3 EOG Reading "Grade Level Proficiency" Scores
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
27.1
29.8
27.4
39.1
2014 2015 2016 2017
Chatham County Schools Percentage Point "Gap" between
White and Black Student Performance
Grade 3 EOG Reading "Grade Level Proficiency" Scores
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
37.7
29.2
33.1
42.8
2014 2015 2016 2017
CHCCS Percentage Point "Gap" between White and Black
Student Performance
Grade 3 EOG Reading "Grade Level Proficiency" Scores
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
57.5
37.4
44.9
34
2014 2015 2016 2017
Durham Tech
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Continuing Education Offered and Total Seats Used
Durham Tech Orange County Campus, 2011-12 through 2017-18
Source: Durham Tech
269 245 215 188 213 204 237
4,063
3,623
3,087
2,686
3,071 3,274
3,686
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018
Classes Offered Total Seats Used
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
49%
of CHCCS or OCS graduates
received financial aid from
Durham Tech (2013-2018)
Source: Durham Tech
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
Durham Tech Licensure Pass Rates and Transfer Performance
2017
Source: Durham Tech
84.50%
97%
76%
95% 100% 94%
Transfer
Performance
(2015-2016)
Practical
Nursing
Registered
Nursing
EMT EMT-P Esthetician
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
University of North Carolina
at Chapel Hill
State Appropriations to UNC Chapel Hill
Source: OIRA
$500 million
$543 million
in 2008
$107,782,727$
108 million$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
1980 - 2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
UNC Chapel Hill Revenues Rise, State Appropriations Flat
Source: OIRA
$3.2 billion
$500 million
$0
$500,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$2,500,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$3,500,000,000
Revenues Appropriations
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
UNC milestones
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
UNC Chapel Hill Campus Grows Past 20 Million square feet
Gross Square Feet of UNC Chapel Hill Campus
Source: OIRA
20.1 million17.8 million
in 2008
7.8 million
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
UNC Chapel Hill Student Population Nearing 30,000
Number of Students Enrolled at UNC, 1980-2017
29,911
28,567 in 2008
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2017201520132011200920072005200320011999199719951993199119891987198519831981
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
UNC Annual Research Funding nears $900 million
Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research
$898 million
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
Millions
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Housing
Homes Sold in 2017 Decline From 2016 Peak
Number of single and multifamily home sales, 2007 through 2017
Source: Triangle MLS
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
1,751
1,815
1782
1,008 1,037
1323
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Orange Chatham
New Construction as a Percent of Total Sales
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
11%
40%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Orange Chatham
1986median year house built in Orange County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
2003median year Orange County
homeowner moved into unit
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
vs. 2012 for renters
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Steady Growth in Regional Home Prices
Median residential closing price, 2007-2017
Orange
Chatham
Chatham
Orange
Source: Triangle MLS
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$282,500 $277,700
Chatham
$369,000
$260,000 $265,000
Orange
$316,245
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Chatham Orange
Price in Chatham Exceeds All Others
2017 Median Residential Closing Price
Source: Triangle MLS
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$230,750
$285,000
$369,000
$316,245
$360,000
Price in Chatham Exceeds All Others
2017 Median Residential Closing Price
Source: Triangle MLS
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$230,750
$285,000
$369,000
$316,245
$360,000
Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District
$123
$144 $149 $151
$166
Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District
Price Per Square Foot
Median Price Per Square Foot, 2017
Source: Triangle MLS
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Change in Median Home Sale Price 2017 vs 2015
2017 vs. 2015
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
20%
14%
10%
9%
6%
Durham
Wake
Chatham
Orange
CHCCS District
38% of Homes in CHCCS District and 47% of All
Orange County Homes Sold for <$300K
2016 Orange County home sales by price
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
25%
21%
28%
22%
17%
26%
18%
19%
14%
21%
25%
14%
13%
18%
18%
Orange County (All)
(1,782 Sales)
CHCCS District
(1,049 Sales)
Not CHCCS
(686 Sales)
<$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999
$400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more
Source: Triangle MLS
2017 Orange County Homes Sales by Price
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
454
224
230
395
178
217
316
197
119
378
258
120
239
192
147
-200 300 800 1,300 1,800
Orange County (All)
(1,782 Sales)
CHCCS District
(1,049 Sales)
Not CHCCS
(686 Sales)
<$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999
$400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more
Renting
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Most People Renting
(2012-2016 ACS)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Source: 5-Year American Community Survey
39%
59%
52%
37%
23%
Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham
Median Rent
2007-2011 vs 2012-2016 American Community Survey
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$887 $846
$934
$870
$824
$872
$970 $945
$1,061
$831 $803
$921
Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham Durham
2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS
What People are Paying for Rent
Orange County Gross Rent Paid (2012-2016 ACS)
5%
49%
31%
15%
Less than $500
$500 to $999
$1,000 tp $1,499
$1,500 or more
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Changes in % Paying $1,000 or More in Rent
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
34%
25%
42%
30% 31% 33%
46%
43%
56%
24% 24%
40%
Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham Durham
2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS
25%
25%
50%
21%
25%
54%
Less than 20%
20-29%
30% or more
2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS
Households Paying >30% of Gross Income on Rent Declines
Gross Rent as a Percentage of Household Income
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
19%
-1%
-7%
Less than 20%
20-29%
30% or more
Households Paying >30% of Gross Income on Rent Declines
Percent Change 2007-2010 to 2012-2016
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Visitor Spending
and Economic Impact
$107.35
$102.12 $101.61
$104.38
$106.49
$113.65
$121.48
$124.43
$126.13
$85
$100
$115
$130
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Hotel Average Daily Rate Continues to Increase
Orange County Average Daily Rate, 2009-2017
Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Orange County Hotel Average Daily Occupancy Off Peak
Average Daily Hotel Occupancy, 2009-2017
Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
58.9% 59.6%
64.1% 65.1% 65.1%
69.9% 70.5% 70.1%
66.8%
48%
56%
64%
72%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$63.34 $60.87
$65.15 $68.00 $69.60
$79.45
$85.69 $87.18 $84.25
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Revenue per Room Continues to Grow
Orange County Average Revenue Per Room, 2009-2017
Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Orange County Revenues from Tourism Rising
(Adjusted for Inflation)
State and Local Visitor Spending Tax Revenue (millions)
2018 State of the Community Report
Source: Prepared for VisitNC by the US Travel Association
#CHCSOTC
$9.2 $8.9 $9.2 $9.6 $10.1 $10.5
$3.2 $3.5 $3.7 $3.9 $4.0 $4.2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
State Tax Receipts ($2016) Local Tax Receipts ($2016)
Domestic Visitor Spending Increases 4.4%
Orange County Domestic Visitor Spending (millions)
$184.45
$192.63
2015 2016
Source: Prepared for VisitNC by the US Travel Association
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Domestic Visitor Expenditures (millions) on Steady Increase
(Adjusted for Inflation $2016)
Orange County Domestic Visitor Expenditures
Source: Prepared for VisitNC by the US Travel Association
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$151
$153
$193
$70
$110
$150
$190
$230
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
191 203 217
262
339
261255 254
282
355
467
394
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2017 2018
#CHCSOTC
Air B&B Room Nights Increasing
2018 State of the Community Report
#CHCSOTC
Air B&B Annual Revenue Growing in Orange County
*2018 projected based on trends
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
$1,739,404
$4,000,892
$6,645,065
$9,823,136
2015 2016 2017 2018*
What is it all Worth?
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Orange County 2018 Total Assessed Value
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Chapel Hill,
$7B (44%)
Carrboro,
$2.1B (13%)
Hillsborough,
$886 M (5.5%)
Rest of
County, $6B
(37.3%)
Total = $16 billion
2018 Orange County Commercial Assessed Value (millions)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Chapel Hill,
$1.3 Billion
(63%)
Carrboro,
$229
million
(11%)
Hillsborough,
$296 million
(14%)
Rest of County,
$234 million
(11%)
Total = $2.06 billion
2018 Orange County Residential Assessed Value
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Chapel Hill,
$5 billion
(39%)
Carrboro,
$1.6 billion
(13%)
Hillsborough,
$516 million (4%)
Rest of
County,
$5.7 billion
(44%)
Total = $13 billion
2018 Orange County Apartment Assessed Value (millions)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Chapel Hill,
$654 million
(64%)
Carrboro,
$260 million
(25%)
Hillsborough,
$74 million (7%)
Rest of Orange County,
$34 million (3%)
Total = $1 billion
72.1% 77.1%
58.2%
95.5%
80.7%
18.5% 10.7%
33.4%
3.9%
12.9%
9.3% 12.2% 8.4%
0.6% 6.4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Rest of Orange
County
Total County
Residential Commercial Apartment
2018 Orange County Assessed Value
#CHCSOTC#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Crime
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Violent Crime Rate Per 100,000
By County
Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year)
232.0
158
371.5
173
2001 2006 2011 2016
Chatham Orange
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Violent Crime Rate Per 100,000
By County
Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year)
397
158
773
173
240
2001 2006 2011 2016
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Property Crime Rate Per 100,000
By County, 2001 - 2016
Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year)
3318.6
1,511
4,887
2,051
2001 2006 2011 2016
Chatham Orange
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Property Crime Rate Per 100,000
By County, 2001 - 2016
Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year)
2,405
1,511
3,7154,887
2,051
1,885
2001 2006 2011 2016
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Low crime, but you are a worrier
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
2017-18 City and Town Property Tax Rates
Source: NC Department of Revenue
Cary, 0.3500
Apex, 0.3800
Raleigh, 0.4253
Chapel Hill, 0.508
Durham, 0.5786
Carrboro, 0.5894
Salisbury, 0.7096
Huntersville
Cary
Apex
Raleigh
Asheville
Charlotte
Concord
Wilmington
Fayetteville
Chapel Hill
Greenville
Gastonia
Wilson
Hickory
Durham
Monroe
Carrboro
Burlington
Winston-Salem
Kannapolis
Greensboro
Jacksonville
High Point
Goldsboro
Rocky Mount
Salisbury
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Cary, 0.965
Apex, 0.995
Raleigh, 1.0403
Chapel Hill, 1.3457
Durham, 1.3465
Carrboro, 1.4271
Cary
Asheville
Apex
Raleigh
Wilmington
Huntersville
Hickory
Burlington
Concord
Greenville
Wilson
Charlotte
Fayetteville
Goldsboro
Jacksonville
Winston-Salem
Kannapolis
Rocky Mount
Chapel Hill
Durham
Greensboro
Monroe
Salisbury
High Point
Gastonia
Carrboro
2016 All Jurisdictions Property Tax Rates
Source: NC Department of Revenue
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Burlington, $1,246
Raleigh, $2,720
Durham, $2,841
Apex, $3,388
Cary, $3,449
Carrboro, $3,873
Chapel Hill, $4,979
Goldsboro
Rocky Mount
Burlington
Fayetteville
Greenville
Hickory
High Point
Jacksonville
Kannapolis
Winston-Salem
Wilson
Salisbury
Greensboro
Gastonia
Concord
Monroe
Wilmington
Asheville
Raleigh
Charlotte
Durham
Huntersville
Apex
Cary
Carrboro
Chapel Hill
2017-18 Tax Assessed on Median Home Value
Source: NC Department of Revenue, Zillow 5/2018
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
And at the same time there are
those in our community with
very little
Percent of People in Poverty
2000 2006 2011 2016
Orange County 10% 14% 17%
13%
Chatham County 9% 12% 11%
12%
Durham County 11% 16% 20%
16%
Wake County 7% 9% 12%
9%
North Carolina 12% 15% 18%
15%
United States 11% 13% 16%
14%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Orange County SNAP Individuals Decline from Peak
Monthly Participants Over Time
Source: NC Department of Health and Human Services
9,898
11,779
6,111
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
Jan-18Jan-17Jan-16Jan-15Jan-14Jan-12Jan-11Jan-10Jan-09Jan-08Jan-07
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Number of Children in Poverty Decreasing
1998 through 2016
2018 State of the Community Report
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
2,773
4,822
3,229
1,848
2,952
2,462
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Orange County Chatham County
#CHCSOTC
Food Insecurity Rate by County (2016)
Source: Feeding America
15.4%
13.2%
14.7%
10.9%
17.3%
12.7%
North Carolina Orange Alamance Chatham Durham Wake
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
-2.9%
-2.2% -2.0%
-1.1% -0.9%
-1.7%
-9.0%
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
North
Carolina Orange Alamance Chatham Durham Wake
Percentage Point Change in Food Insecurity Rate
2013 to 2016
Source: Feeding America
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Food Insecure People by County (2016)
Source: Feeding America
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
18,460
22,930
7,480
50,890
Orange Alamance Chatham Durham
Health Data
Adult Smoking Rates
Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities
Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
14%
19%
15% 16%
14%
11%
22%
13%
19%
13%
10%
16% 16%
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Adult Obesity
Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities
Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
23%
33%
26% 26%
23%
14%
26% 24% 23% 24%
21%
29%
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Violent Crime Rate per 100,000
Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities
Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
150
396
174
613
245 210
372
231
277 299 264
435
363
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Disconnected Youth
Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities
Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
4%
13%
20%
13%
8%
6% 5% 6% 6%
4%
10%
13%
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
9
12
6
9 10
13
17 18
11
17
15
18
Drug Overdose Deaths per 100,000
Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities
Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
21%
16% 16% 17%
20%
24%
17%
29%
21%
25%
20% 19%
Excessive Drinking
Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities
Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Access to Exercise Opportunities
Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities
Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
86% 86%
65%
92% 92% 97%
87%
95%
83%
94% 96%
88%
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Prostate Cancer Rate per 100,000
2006-2010 vs. 2011-2015
Source: N.C. State Center for Health Statistics
154.9
167.6
134.2
160.9
142.8
178.5
109.4 108.3
96.9 101.8
84.1
118.3
NORTH
CAROLINA
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
2007-2011 2012-2016
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Female Breast Cancer Rate per 100,000
2007-2011 vs. 2012-2016
Source: N.C. State Center for Health Statistics
159.2
166.0
181.0
173.0
170.6 169.5
157.5
181.2
169.4
174.6
177.0
168.0
NORTH
CAROLINA
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
2007-2011 2012-2016
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Orange County Teen Pregnancy Rates Decrease
Per 1000 Girls, Age 15-17
Source: NC Health and Human Services
26.1
9.1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Too few to
calculate rates
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
#CHCSOTC
2018 Health Indicators
Health Indicator
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Who is #1
Length of Life #1 #9 Orange
Quality of Life
Health Behaviors
Clinical Care
Social and Economic
Factors
Physical Environment
Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
#CHCSOTC
2018 Health Indicators
Health Indicator
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Who is #1
Length of Life #1 #9 Orange
Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare
Health Behaviors
Clinical Care
Social and Economic
Factors
Physical Environment
Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
#CHCSOTC
2018 Health Indicators
Health Indicator
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Who is #1
Length of Life #1 #9 Orange
Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare
Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake
Clinical Care
Social and Economic
Factors
Physical Environment
Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
#CHCSOTC
2018 Health Indicators
Health Indicator
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Who is #1
Length of Life #1 #9 Orange
Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare
Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake
Clinical Care #1 #17 Orange
Social and Economic
Factors
Physical Environment
Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
#CHCSOTC
2018 Health Indicators
Health Indicator
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Who is #1
Length of Life #1 #9 Orange
Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare
Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake
Clinical Care #1 #17 Orange
Social and Economic
Factors #2 #13 Union
Physical Environment
Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
#CHCSOTC
2018 Health Indicators
Health Indicator
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Who is #1
Length of Life #1 #9 Orange
Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare
Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake
Clinical Care #1 #17 Orange
Social and Economic
Factors #2 #13 Union
Physical Environment #33 #19 Hyde
Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Summary
Add #
#CHCSOTC
Summary
• We are growing, but slowly, and we are less dense than peer
communities.
• Young workers working in Orange, and driving into Orange, is
increasing.
• Household income is out-pacing inflation.
• Orange has number 1 in per capita income but lags in per capita
sales.
• Retail gap remains wide with additional retail opportunity on the
horizon.
• CHCCS continues to out perform peers.
• Minority student reading is improving in CHCCS and the
achievement gap is closing there.
#CHCSOTC
Summary
• Health Indicators show Orange and Chatham lead neighbors and
peers.
• Rent is getting more expensive, but wage growth is outpacing it.
• Housing prices are increasing, though rate of growth in Orange is
slowest
• Orange and Chatham properties are valuable and have a strong
and growing tax bases.
• Poverty, and children in poverty, are declining.
• Crime is down.
• We remain one the best places in the world to live, work, shop,
play, learn, and raise a family. Add #
#CHCSOTC
Creighton Blackwell
2018 Chamber Board Vice Chair
2018 State of the Community Report
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
2018 InterCity Visit
September 23-25
LAWRENCE, KANSAS
Only 17 Spots Remaining
Register at
CarolinaChamber.org/ICV
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
HELP YOUR LOCAL COMMUNITY,
GET A CHANCE TO WIN
$10,000
Step 1: Buy a $100 ticket for a 1 in 400 chance!
Step 2: Attend the Party Thursday, October 25 from 5:30-8 p.m.
See any Chamber Board Member or visit
carolinachamber.org/raffle to purchase your ticket!
Proceeds support the Chamber’s economic and community
development work.
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
The Chamber’s Hendrick Golf Classic
October 8, 2018 | Governors Club | 8:30 am - 5 pm
Come Play on Columbus Day!
Thank you for attending the
2018 State of the
Community Report

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2018 State of the Community Report Presentation

  • 1. 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 2. #CHCSOTC Reagan Greene Pruitt 2018 Chamber Board Chair 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 3. #CHCSOTC Leadership Graduation Sponsor Denny Marcin Chamber Board of Directors 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 4. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 2018 Leadership Class President Kate Kryder Co-Curricular Leadership Development Program Coordinator UNC-Chapel Hill
  • 5. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Bonnie Hammersley Orange County Roger Stancil Town of Chapel Hill Data and Research Partners
  • 6. Presenting Sponsor Jessica Aylor Interim CEO and Vice President of Community Investment 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 7. #CHCSOTC Aaron Nelson President and CEO Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 11. Networking Sponsor Medical practice that provides comprehensive care for the whole person in a non-judgmental environment.
  • 14. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Data Produced in Partnership with:
  • 15. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Official Data Research Partner
  • 16. 11th Annual State of the Community Report
  • 17. #CHCSOTC Preview • Demography • Migration • Commuting • Education • Housing • Wages • Poverty • Health #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 18. #CHCSOTC A Few Things First… • Percentage Point vs Percent (10% to 11%) • Data Lag • Adjusting for Inflation • County Lines v zip codes v city limits • 5 year averages • The Quarter and the Ping Pong Paddle 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 20. Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 21. Orange County Total Value Per Acre #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Source: Urban3
  • 22. Source 2012-2016 American Community Survey Orange County Land Distribution #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Chapel Hill 5% Carrboro 2% Hillsborough 1% Mebane 0.5% Rest of Orange 92%
  • 24. Orange County 56,494 Housing Units Distribution Percentage #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Source 2012-2016 American Community Survey Chapel Hill 36% Carrboro 17% Hillsborough 4% Mebane 2% Rest of Orange 41%
  • 25. Who am I? Some Demography #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 26. Chapel Hill Second Highest in Nation with BA+ Percent of Residents 25+ with Bachelors degree or higher (2012-16) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Cambridge (MA), 74.9% Chapel Hill, 74.6% Carrboro, 69.1% Orange County, 57.7% Charlottesville (VA), 50.0% Chatham County, 38.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Cambridge (MA) Chapel Hill (NC) Ann Arbor (MI) Boulder (CO) Berkeley (CA) Carrboro (NC) Evanston (IL) Amherst (MA) Sunnyvale (CA) Corvallis (OR) Orange County (NC) Santa Clara (CA) Bloomington (IN) Fort Collins (CO) Burlington (VT) Charlottesville (VA) Austin (TX) Tallahassee (FL) Boston (MA) Gainesville (FL) Athens-Clarke County (GA) San Jose (CA) Chatham County (NC) Columbus (OH) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 27. Orange Highest Per Capita Income in State (2016) Source: 5-Year American Community Survey #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Orange $37,103 Chatham $35,109 North Carolina $26,779 Scotland $16,192 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Orange Wake Chatham Mecklenburg Durham Union NewHanover Dare Moore Carteret Brunswick Iredell Currituck Davie Polk Buncombe Cabarrus Forsyth Guilford NorthCarolina Henderson Haywood Camden Lincoln Perquimans Transylvania Craven Macon Pamlico Catawba Nash Pitt Pender Alamance Beaufort Gaston Gates Granville Johnston Cumberland Davidson Clay Watauga Onslow Pasquotank Wilson Rowan Franklin Lee Ashe Madison Chowan Mitchell Stanly Person Stokes Jackson Yadkin Randolph Wayne Avery Yancey Surry Rockingham Harnett Martin Columbus Alleghany Burke Lenoir Cleveland Caldwell Alexander Washington Jones Swain Caswell Wilkes Halifax Montgomery Sampson Rutherford Warren Bladen Richmond Cherokee McDowell Northampton Graham Hyde Hoke Vance Greene Edgecombe Duplin Hertford Anson Bertie Tyrrell Robeson Scotland
  • 28. 2016 Median Household Income $65,299 $63,303 $54,255 $46,060 $76,173 $50,595 $57,617 Orange County Chatham County Durham County Alamance County Wake County North Carolina United States Source: U.S. Census Bureau SAIPE
  • 29. #CHCSOTC Median Household Income 1998-2016 (Adjusted for Inflation) $2016 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 $70,000 $75,000 $80,000 $85,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Orange County Chatham County Durham County Wake County North Carolina United States
  • 30. #CHCSOTC Median Household Income 1998-2016 (Adjusted for Inflation) $2016 $65,299$61,796 $54,255 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 $70,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Orange County Durham County
  • 31. Orange County Shows Growth in Inflation Adjusted Median Family Income (1998-2016) Dollar Change in Median Household Income From 1998 to 2016 (adjusted for inflation) $2016 $3,161 ($2,696) ($7,541) ($8,367) ($5,057) ($2,385) $363 Orange County Chatham County Durham County Alamance County Wake County North Carolina United States
  • 32. Orange County Shows Growth in Inflation Adjusted Median Family Income (1998-2016) Percent Change in Median Household Income From 1998 to 2016 (adjusted for inflation) Inflation Adjusted 5.1% -4.1% -12.2% -15.4% -6.2% -4.5% 0.6% Orange County Chatham County Durham County Alamance County Wake County North Carolina United States
  • 33. Orange County Population by Race Source: US Census Bureau; Orange County Planning 80% 76% 71% 69% 16% 14% 12% 11% 1% 4% 8% 9% 3% 4% 7% 8% 2% 3% 3% 1990 2000 2010 2017 White Black Hispanic Asian Other or Multiracial #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Changes By Decade
  • 34. Orange Minority Population by Race Source: U.S. Census Bureau NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts 14,847 16,643 12,336 11,823 3,232 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 1990 2000 2010 2017 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 35. Chapel Hill Minority Population by Race Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 4,840 5,460 3,638 1,678 6,786 1,282 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 1990 2000 2010 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 36. Carrboro Minority Population by Race #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 1,916 1,933 2,706 1,592 430 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1990 2000 2010 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
  • 38. Population Growth Jurisdiction 2010 2017 Pop Growth Growth Rate Orange County 133,688 144,946 11,258 8.4% (1.1% PY) Hillsborough 6,613 7,231 618 7.9% (1.2% PY) Carrboro 19,564 21,544 1,980 10.1% (1.3% PY) Chapel Hill 57,221 59,862 2,641 4.6% (0.6% PY) North Carolina 9,535,721 10,273,419 737,698 7.7% (1.0% PY) Note: showing April 1, 2010 Estimates Base Source U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 39. Orange County Population Growth Slowest Since 1960s Numeric Growth By Decade, 1930-2010 Source U.S. Census Bureau 1,901 11,363 8,535 14,737 19,348 16,796 24,376 15,574 11,258 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010- 2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 40. 9.0% 49.3% 24.8% 34.3% 33.5% 21.8% 26.0% 13.2% 8.4% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Source U.S. Census Bureau Orange County Population Percentage Growth Slowest Since 1930s Percent Population Increase By Decade, 1930-2010
  • 41. Chatham County Grew By 7,993 in First 8 Years of this Decade Numeric Growth By Decade, 1930-2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Source: U.S. Census Bureau 549 666 1,393 2,769 3,861 5,344 10,570 14,176 7,993 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017 549 666 1,393 2,769 3,861 5,344 10,570 14,176 7,993 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017
  • 42. Source U.S. Census Bureau 2.3% 2.7% 5.5% 10.3% 13.1% 16.0% 27.3% 28.7% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2000s Fastest Growth Decade for Chatham County Percent Population Increase By Decade, 1930-2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 2.3% 2.7% 5.5% 10.3% 13.1% 16.0% 27.3% 28.7% 12.6% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017
  • 43. 7,993 11,193 11,258 41,656 171,144 Chatham County Alamance County Orange County Durham County Wake County Population Gains Since 2010 Smallest in Chatham Numeric Population Growth, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2017 #CHCSOTC Source U.S. Census Bureau 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 44. Migration Drove County Population Growth 2010 - 2017 Components of Orange County's estimated 11,258 person growth, 2010- 2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Note: Not shown is the estimated loss of 2 individuals that cannot be attributed to births, deaths, or migration (residual) Source U.S. Census Bureau 11,258 8,872 -5,565 2,802 5,159 Total Change Births Deaths Domestic Migration International Migration
  • 45. #CHCSOTC Dr. Rebecca Tippett 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 46. Migration With Dr. Rebecca Tippett, Carolina Demography
  • 47. -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople AgeSource: Winkler et al., 2013 NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 48. -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 No Net Migration #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 49. -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Net Out Migration Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 50. -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Net In Migration Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 51. -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 52. -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Orange Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 53. -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Orange Pitt Watauga Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 54. -1,400 -1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Youth Drain Halifax Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 55. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Employment Center Wake Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 56. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Family Suburbs Johnston Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 57. -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Chatham Moore Retiree Destinations Chatham & Moore Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 58. -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Orange Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 59. -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age White Black Other Hispanic Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 60. -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Black Other Hispanic Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 62. Three Population Projection Models – Annual Change 20-Year Exponential, 20-Year Linear, 10-Year Linear #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Geography Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017) Orange 1.8% 1,553 people 1,999 people Chatham 2.5% 1,237people 1,102people Carrboro 2.4% 372 people 273 people Chapel Hill 2.0% 926people 364people Hillsborough 1.8% 91 people 85people
  • 63. How many people in 2050? Orange County 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 271,957 213,701 133,801 195,914 0 75,000 150,000 225,000 300,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
  • 64. How many people in 2050? Chapel Hill 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 125,104 94,277 2010-2017 57,233 71,804 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
  • 65. How many people in 2050? Carrboro 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 50,999 34,478 19,582 30,506 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
  • 66. How many people in 2050? Chatham County 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 170,482 112,997 107,604 0 75,000 150,000 225,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
  • 67. Carrboro Remains One of the Most Densely Populated Communities in NC People per square mile by census and using ‘Linear 1990-2010’ projections Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 2,970 3,437 3,754 3,108 3,586 4,158 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected 2,970 3,437 3,754 3,031 3,608 4,184 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 68. Chapel Hill Population Density To Increase Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 2,583 2,342 2,330 2,710 3,148 3,587 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected People per square mile by census and using ‘Linear 1990-2010’ projections
  • 69. 4,246 4,116 4,094 3,948 3,472 3,108 3,037 2,710 3,587 Charlottesville (VA) Burlington (VT) Ann Arbor (MI) Boulder (CO) Bloomington (IN) Carrboro (NC) Madison (WI) Chapel Hill (NC) Chapel Hill 2030 Chapel Hill in 2030 is Less Dense than Most Peers People Per Square Mile Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 70. Its time to get up and go to work
  • 71. Orange Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015 43,036 drive in, 35,818 drive out, and 20,406 live and work in Orange Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 72. 61% of Orange County Households Have 2+ Cars Share of Households by Number of Vehicles Available, 2012-16 Source: 2012-16 American Community Survey No Vehicles 5% 1 Vehicle 34% 2 Vehicles 38% 3 or More Vehicles 23% #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 73. Fewer Orange, Chatham Workers Drive Alone to Work Percent of commuters who drive alone to work, 2012-16 Source: Vehicle Availability and Commuting, 2012-16 American Community Survey 81% 67% 78% 84% 76% 79% North Carolina Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 74. Chapel Hill Transit Ridership Down Total Chapel Hill Transit Ridership (in millions), FY2004-FY2017 5.27 7.23 6.94 6.73 6.33 6.18 4.0 6.0 8.0 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 (millions) Source: Chapel Hill Transit #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 75. 0.71 0.75 0.82 0.87 0.94 1.14 1.09 1.29 1.58 1.77 1.82 1.84 1.78 1.66 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 GoTriangle Ridership Declines 10% from 2015 Peak Total Triangle Transit Ridership, FY2004-FY2017 Source: Triangle Transit #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 76. High Share of Orange, Chatham Workers Work from Home #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 4.8% 8.2% 7.8% 2.7% 4.8% 7.6% North Carolina Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
  • 77. 52,698 63,442 48,702 56,224 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jobs in Orange Workers in Orange County Job Growth has not Consistently Translated to More Workers Living in Orange Number of jobs in Orange vs. workers in Orange, 2002-2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 78. While Most Orange County Residents Work Elsewhere, Percent Driving Out for Work is Declining from Peak Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 55% 66% 64% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Share of Orange County resident workers who work outside of Orange County, 2002-2015
  • 80. Young Workers Living and Working in Orange Increasing Number living and working in Orange County, 29 or younger, highest since 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 4,567 3,625 3,751 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 81. Fewer Workers Under 29 Commuting Out of Orange Number of young workers commuting out of Orange County declining Source: U.S. Census Bureau 7,889 7,495 6,956 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 82. Total People 29 or Younger Working Orange County Increasing (2012 – 2015) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 12,199 12,975 11,000 11,500 12,000 12,500 13,000 13,500 14,000 14,500 15,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  • 83. New Young Workers Driving Into Orange for Work Increasing 2009 through 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 8,966 9,224 8,500 8,600 8,700 8,800 8,900 9,000 9,100 9,200 9,300 9,400 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 85. 14,228 12,088 4,662 1909 1635 1596 1324 1297 1037 683 15,765 Chapel Hill town, NC Durham city, NC Raleigh city, NC Hillsborough town, NC Carrboro town, NC Cary town, NC Greensboro city, NC Charlotte city, NC Burlington city, NC Mebane city, NC All Other Locations Where Do Orange County Residents Work? Location of Primary Job, 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 86. Where Orange County Residents Work is Changing Location of Primary Job, 2005-2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report -2,383 1,141 1,971 259 97 609 298 228 266 14 3,509 Chapel Hill town, NC Durham city, NC Raleigh city, NC Hillsborough town, NC Carrboro town, NC Cary town, NC Greensboro city, NC Charlotte city, NC Burlington city, NC Mebane city, NC All Other Locations
  • 87. Chapel Hill Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015 38,804 drive in, 18,697 drive out, and 11,106 live and work in Chapel Hill/Carrboro Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 88. Carrboro Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015 3,623 drive in, 8,524 drive out, and 645 live and work in Carrboro Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 89. Chatham Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015 8,997 drive in, 20,551 drive out, and 5,124 live and Work in Chatham Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 90. 46% of Chatham Workers Driving Alone Travel 30+ Minutes Percent of those who drive alone to work commuting 30+ minutes, 2012-16 Source: Vehicle Availability and Commuting, 2012-16 American Community Survey 31% 29% 46% 31% 24% 33% North Carolina Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 91. Majority of Chatham Residents Work Elsewhere Share of Chatham County resident workers who work outside of Chatham, 2002-2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 65% 81% 80% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 92. Now time to work #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 93. We begin with employment
  • 94. Monthly Unemployment Rate (Unadjusted) 1/2004 to 4/2018 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1/2004 7/2004 1/2005 7/2005 1/2006 7/2006 1/2007 7/2007 1/2008 7/2008 1/2009 7/2009 1/2010 7/2010 1/2011 7/2011 1/2012 7/2012 1/2013 7/2013 1/2014 7/2014 1/2015 7/2015 1/2016 7/2016 1/2017 7/2017 1/2018 North Carolina Orange County Chapel Hill Chatham County Source: BLS LAUS
  • 95. Annual Unemployment Rate (Unadjusted) Unemployment Rate, 1997-2017 Source: NC Department of Commerce #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 10.9% 6.6% Orange 3.8% 6.6% Chapel Hill, 4.6% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% UnemploymentRate North Carolina Orange County Chapel Hill Chatham County Source: BLS LAUS
  • 96. Number of Unemployed Persons, 2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 1,379 1,365 2,921 Chapel Hill Chatham County Orange County
  • 97. Orange County Employment Patterns Orange Top 5 Specialized Industries, by Employment, 2016 (NACO) Source: National Association of Counties #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 41,300 jobs | 44.6% 6,700 jobs | 7.2% 5,400 jobs | 5.8% 2,000 jobs | 2.1% 170 jobs | 0.2% State & Local Government Food & Hospitality Professional & Business Services Educational Services Mining
  • 98. Minority Business Ownership Rates Orange County & Municipalities Fall Below U.S. and Statewide Averages 10.3% 11.8% 13.5% 13.7% 14.0% 14.9% 15.2% 20.5% 20.8% 21.1% 22.8% 26.3% 28.8% 36.7% Bloomington (IN) Chatham County (NC) Madison (WI) Chapel Hill (NC) Orange County (NC) Ann Arbor (MI) Carrboro (NC) Johnston County (NC) Alamance County (NC) Hillsborough (NC) North Carolina Wake County (NC) United States Durham County (NC) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 99. Higher share of women-owned firms in unincorporated Orange County #CHCSOTC 2017 State of the Community Report 30.2% 31.2% 32.2% 32.4% 34.2% 34.6% 35.4% 35.5% 35.6% 35.6% 35.8% 35.9% 36.3% 41.7% Bloomington (IN) Hillsborough (NC) Johnston County (NC) Ann Arbor (MI) Chapel Hill (NC) Alamance County (NC) Madison (WI) Chatham County (NC) North Carolina Wake County (NC) United States Carrboro (NC) Orange County (NC) Durham County (NC) Female Business Ownership Rates
  • 100. Total Non-Profit Employment Nonprofit Employee County by County (2015) 29,808 1,681 42,373 Orange Chatham Durham Source Center for Nonprofits #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 101. 47% of Orange County workers employed in Nonprofit Nonprofit employment as percent of total employment, 2015 47% 12% 23% Orange Chatham Durham Source: Center for Nonprofits #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 102. Orange County Major Employers 2017 Q4 1. UNC Chapel Hill 2. UNC Health Care System 3. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools 4. Orange County Schools 5. UNC Physicians Network LLC, Education & Health Services 6. Local Government 7. Town Of Chapel Hill Inc 8. Eurosport 9. General Electric Company 10. Aramark Food And Support Services G. 11. Wal-Mart Associates Inc. 12. Harris Teeter Source: NC Department of Commerce 13. A K G Of America Inc. 14. Food Lion 15. The Chapel Hill Residential 16. United Parcel Service Inc. 17. P H E Inc. 18. Summit Consulting-Engineering 19. Weaver Street Market 20. Performance BMW 21. Wellspring Grocery 22. Residential Services Inc. 23. U S Postal Service 24. Carolina Inn 25. The Arc Of The Triangle #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 104. Taxable Sales Grows to $1.76 Billion Orange County Taxable Sales (in millions), FY06 - FY18 Source: NC Department of Revenue *Change in reporting #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $908 $948 $972 $927 $988 $1,017 $1,058 $1,176 $1,422 $1,477 $1,568 $1,726 $1,766 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15* 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
  • 105. Annual Growth of Orange County Taxable Sales Change (in millions) from Taxable Sales of Prior Year FY05-FY18 Source: NC Department of Revenue #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $41 $23 -$45 $61 $30 $41 $117 $246 $55 $91 $158 $40 -$100 -$50 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300
  • 106. Orange County Percent Change of Taxable Sales of Prior Year FY05-FY18 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 4% 2% -5% 7% 3% 4% 11% 21% 4% 6% 10% 2%
  • 107. Sales Tax Collections Grow to $84 Million Orange County Gross Sales Tax Collections (in millions), FY06-FY18 Source: NC Department of Revenue #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $41 $42 $42 $41 $52 $59 $52 $56 $68 $70 $75 $82 $84
  • 108. Distribution of $56 Million in Orange County Sales Tax Distributions Municipality share of Orange County Local Option Sales Tax (LOST) Revenue Distributions, FY 2016-17 Source: NC Department of Revenue #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $37 million $4.5 million $12.3 million $6,759 $1.4 million $441,692 Orange County Total Carrboro Chapel Hill Durham Hillsborough Mebane
  • 109. Chapel Hill & Carrboro Receive 30% of Orange County Sales Tax Distributions ) Municipality share of Orange County Local Option Sales Tax (LOST) Revenue Distributions, FY 2016-17 Source: NC Department of Revenue #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 67% 8% 22% 0.01% 3% 1% Orange County Total Carrboro Chapel Hill Durham Hillsborough Mebane 2017-18 County Tax Disbursements
  • 110. Sales Tax Per Capita FY2016 and FY2017 Source: NC Department of Revenue $175 $157 $251 $172 $154 $177 $177 $255 $182 $156 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake 2016 2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 111. Sales Tax Per Capita Rankings Ranking of 100 NC Counties (1=highest), 2013-2017 Source: NC Department of Revenue #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 81 31 48 55 9 0 20 40 60 80 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CountyRanking(1to100) Orange Chatham Durham
  • 112. Total Household Income (billions) 2017 Inflation Adjusted Dollars Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce $3.99 $2.75 $9.86 $4.86 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 113. Average Household Retail Demand 2016 $51,358 $32,097 $44,329 $38,192 $48,176 Orange County Alamance County Chatham County Durham County Wake County Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 114. Number of Households (2016) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 64,369 28,568 123,697 50,203 Alamance County Chatham County Durham County Orange County
  • 115. $2.1 $1.3 $4.7 $2.6 $18.7 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake Retail Demand 2016 in Billions (revised) Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce Values shown in billions #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 116. The Retail Gap #CHCSOTC 2017 State of the Community Report
  • 117. Orange Had Largest Retail Gap in 2016 (revised) Retail Potential vs. Retail Sales (in billions), 2016 Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $2.1 $1.3 $4.7 $2.6 $1.8 $0.6 $4.6 $1.8 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Total Retail Potential Total Sales
  • 118. Orange Had Largest Retail Gap in 2016 Retail Gap– Demand Minus Supply (in Millions), 2016 revised Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $269 $648 $81 $796 $623 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
  • 119. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Retail Leakage occurs when local people spend a larger amount of money on goods than local businesses report in sales, usually due to people traveling to a neighboring town to buy goods.
  • 120. Orange County Draws Outside Dollars in 4 Categories 2016 Retail Leakage (in Millions) Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $85.7 $49.5 $13.9 $0.2 -$28.3 -$30.7 -$45.4 -$47.1 -$50.9 -$52.7 -$87.8 -$280.8 -$321.9 Nonstore Retailers Sports/Hobby/Book/Music Stores Gasoline Stations Miscellaneous Store Retailers Furniture/Home Furnishing Stores Food Services & Drinking Places Bldg/Garden Equip/Supply Stores Health and Personal Care Stores Electronics & Appliance Stores Clothing/Accessories Stores Food and Beverage Stores Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers General Merchandise Stores
  • 121. Chatham County Draws Outside Dollars in 1 Category 2016 Retail Leakage (in Millions) Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $10.7 -$9.9 -$20.3 -$21.6 -$23.0 -$29.5 -$40.8 -$41.0 -$41.3 -$41.8 -$73.3 -$99.1 -$217.4 Sports/Hobby/Book/Music Stores Gasoline Stations Furniture/Home Furnishing Stores Nonstore Retailers Bldg/Garden Equip/Supply Stores Health and Personal Care Stores Clothing/Accessories Stores Electronics & Appliance Stores Food Services & Drinking Places Miscellaneous Store Retailers Food and Beverage Stores General Merchandise Stores Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
  • 123. Total Per Pupil Expenditure (2016-17) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction $8,588 $8,742 $10,180 $10,641 $11,012 $11,601 $12,017 Alamance-Burlington Schools Wake County Schools Chatham County Schools Durham County Schools Orange County Schools Asheville City Schools Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  • 124. Local Per Pupil Expenditure (2016-17) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction $1,826 $2,537 $3,463 $3,556 $4,281 $4,880 $6,151 Alamance-Burlington Schools Wake County Schools Chatham County Schools Durham County Schools Orange County Schools Asheville City Schools Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  • 125. Average SAT Evidence Based Reading and Writing (ERW) Score 2017 Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC 568 573 621 522 539 520 542 Wake County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Durham Public Schools Chatham County Schools Alamance-Burlington Schools North Carolina (All Students)
  • 126. Average SAT Math Score 2017 Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 562 559 611 505 524 521 532 Wake County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Durham Public Schools Chatham County Schools Alamance-Burlington Schools North Carolina (All Students) 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  • 127. Average SAT Total Scores 2017 Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 1,130 1,133 1,231 1,027 1,063 1,041 1,074 Wake County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Durham Public Schools Chatham County Schools Alamance-Burlington Schools North Carolina (All Students) 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  • 128. EOG Math Grade 3, 2016-17 College and Career Ready (Level 4 or 5) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC 60% 50% 70% 38% 58% 47% 52% Wake County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Durham Public Schools Chatham County Schools Alamance-Burlington Schools North Carolina (All Students)
  • 129. EOG Math Grade 8, 2015-16 College and Career Ready (Level 4 or 5) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 48% 48% 66% 28% 45% 38% 40% Wake County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Durham Public Schools Chatham County Schools Alamance-Burlington Schools North Carolina (All Students) 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  • 130. EOG Reading Grade 8, 2016-17 Grade Level Proficient (Level 3+) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC 63% 55% 72% 41% 57% 47% 54% Wake County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Durham Public Schools Chatham County Schools Alamance-Burlington Schools North Carolina (All Students)
  • 131. EOG Reading Grade 3, 2016-17 Grade Level Proficient (Level 3+) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 67% 56% 74% 45% 60% 53% 58% Wake County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Durham Public Schools Chatham County Schools Alamance-Burlington Schools North Carolina (All Students) 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  • 132. Local School Dropout Rate Declines 2000 through 2017 Source: NC DPI 1.9% CHCCS 0.8% 5.2% Orange 2.0% 5.7% NC 2.3% CHCCS Orange NC 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  • 133. Graduation Rates in Neighboring Districts Nearly Equal to CHCCS Share of 9th Grade Cohort that Graduated in 4 Years, by Graduation Year Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC CHCCS 90% 90% Orange 67% 89% Chatham 67% 88% NC 68% 87% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year of Graduation CHCCS Orange Chatham NC
  • 134. But there are challenges to address #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 135. Grades 3-8 Math EOG "College and Career Ready", 2017 Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 28% 23% 26% 23% 28% 26% 30% 60% 56% 65% 72% 66% 83% 74% NC Alamance Chatham Durham Orange CHCCS Wake Black White #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 136. And Some Areas of Improvement #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 137. CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficient 2015-2016 vs. 2016-2017 Grade 3 Proficient (Level 3+) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 80 47 39 92 77 55 43 89 Asian Black Hispanic White 2016 2017 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  • 138. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Subgroups Grade 3 Reading EOG "Grade Level Proficient" #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 44 52 49 26 52 56 58 36 Black Hispanic EDS SWD 2016 2017
  • 139. Orange County Schools EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficient 2015-16 vs. 2016-2017 Grade 3 Proficient (Level 3+) Source: NC Department of Public Instruction 44 34 71 35 29 74 Black Hispanic White 2016 2017 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  • 140. Chatham County Schools EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficient 2015-16 vs. 2016-17 Grade 3 Proficient (Level 3+) 39 36 72 35 42 78 Black Hispanic White 2016 2017 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  • 141. CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 "Grade Level Proficient" 2014-2017 79.1 77.4 34 54.5 43.6 42.8 91.5 88.5 0 20 40 60 80 100 2014 2015 2016 2017 Asian Black Hispanic White #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 142. CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 "Grade Level Proficient“ 2014-2017 34 54.5 43.6 42.8 2014 2015 2016 2017 Black Hispanic #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 143. Orange County Schools Percentage Point "Gap" between White and Black Student Performance Grade 3 EOG Reading "Grade Level Proficiency" Scores #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 27.1 29.8 27.4 39.1 2014 2015 2016 2017
  • 144. Chatham County Schools Percentage Point "Gap" between White and Black Student Performance Grade 3 EOG Reading "Grade Level Proficiency" Scores #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 37.7 29.2 33.1 42.8 2014 2015 2016 2017
  • 145. CHCCS Percentage Point "Gap" between White and Black Student Performance Grade 3 EOG Reading "Grade Level Proficiency" Scores #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 57.5 37.4 44.9 34 2014 2015 2016 2017
  • 146. Durham Tech #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 147. Continuing Education Offered and Total Seats Used Durham Tech Orange County Campus, 2011-12 through 2017-18 Source: Durham Tech 269 245 215 188 213 204 237 4,063 3,623 3,087 2,686 3,071 3,274 3,686 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 Classes Offered Total Seats Used 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  • 148. 49% of CHCCS or OCS graduates received financial aid from Durham Tech (2013-2018) Source: Durham Tech 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  • 149. Durham Tech Licensure Pass Rates and Transfer Performance 2017 Source: Durham Tech 84.50% 97% 76% 95% 100% 94% Transfer Performance (2015-2016) Practical Nursing Registered Nursing EMT EMT-P Esthetician 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
  • 150. University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
  • 151. State Appropriations to UNC Chapel Hill Source: OIRA $500 million $543 million in 2008 $107,782,727$ 108 million$0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000 $300,000,000 $400,000,000 $500,000,000 $600,000,000 1980 - 2017 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 152. UNC Chapel Hill Revenues Rise, State Appropriations Flat Source: OIRA $3.2 billion $500 million $0 $500,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $2,500,000,000 $3,000,000,000 $3,500,000,000 Revenues Appropriations #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 153. UNC milestones #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 154. UNC Chapel Hill Campus Grows Past 20 Million square feet Gross Square Feet of UNC Chapel Hill Campus Source: OIRA 20.1 million17.8 million in 2008 7.8 million 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 155. UNC Chapel Hill Student Population Nearing 30,000 Number of Students Enrolled at UNC, 1980-2017 29,911 28,567 in 2008 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2017201520132011200920072005200320011999199719951993199119891987198519831981 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 156. UNC Annual Research Funding nears $900 million Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research $898 million $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 Millions #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 158. Homes Sold in 2017 Decline From 2016 Peak Number of single and multifamily home sales, 2007 through 2017 Source: Triangle MLS #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 1,751 1,815 1782 1,008 1,037 1323 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Orange Chatham
  • 159. New Construction as a Percent of Total Sales #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 11% 40% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Orange Chatham
  • 160. 1986median year house built in Orange County Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 161. 2003median year Orange County homeowner moved into unit Source: U.S. Census Bureau vs. 2012 for renters #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 162. Steady Growth in Regional Home Prices Median residential closing price, 2007-2017 Orange Chatham Chatham Orange Source: Triangle MLS #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $282,500 $277,700 Chatham $369,000 $260,000 $265,000 Orange $316,245 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Chatham Orange
  • 163. Price in Chatham Exceeds All Others 2017 Median Residential Closing Price Source: Triangle MLS #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $230,750 $285,000 $369,000 $316,245 $360,000
  • 164. Price in Chatham Exceeds All Others 2017 Median Residential Closing Price Source: Triangle MLS #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $230,750 $285,000 $369,000 $316,245 $360,000 Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District
  • 165. $123 $144 $149 $151 $166 Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District Price Per Square Foot Median Price Per Square Foot, 2017 Source: Triangle MLS #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 166. Change in Median Home Sale Price 2017 vs 2015 2017 vs. 2015 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 20% 14% 10% 9% 6% Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District
  • 167. 38% of Homes in CHCCS District and 47% of All Orange County Homes Sold for <$300K 2016 Orange County home sales by price #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 25% 21% 28% 22% 17% 26% 18% 19% 14% 21% 25% 14% 13% 18% 18% Orange County (All) (1,782 Sales) CHCCS District (1,049 Sales) Not CHCCS (686 Sales) <$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more Source: Triangle MLS
  • 168. 2017 Orange County Homes Sales by Price #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 454 224 230 395 178 217 316 197 119 378 258 120 239 192 147 -200 300 800 1,300 1,800 Orange County (All) (1,782 Sales) CHCCS District (1,049 Sales) Not CHCCS (686 Sales) <$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more
  • 169. Renting #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 170. Most People Renting (2012-2016 ACS) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Source: 5-Year American Community Survey 39% 59% 52% 37% 23% Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham
  • 171. Median Rent 2007-2011 vs 2012-2016 American Community Survey #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $887 $846 $934 $870 $824 $872 $970 $945 $1,061 $831 $803 $921 Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham Durham 2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS
  • 172. What People are Paying for Rent Orange County Gross Rent Paid (2012-2016 ACS) 5% 49% 31% 15% Less than $500 $500 to $999 $1,000 tp $1,499 $1,500 or more #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 173. Changes in % Paying $1,000 or More in Rent #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 34% 25% 42% 30% 31% 33% 46% 43% 56% 24% 24% 40% Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham Durham 2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS
  • 174. 25% 25% 50% 21% 25% 54% Less than 20% 20-29% 30% or more 2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS Households Paying >30% of Gross Income on Rent Declines Gross Rent as a Percentage of Household Income Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 175. 19% -1% -7% Less than 20% 20-29% 30% or more Households Paying >30% of Gross Income on Rent Declines Percent Change 2007-2010 to 2012-2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 177. $107.35 $102.12 $101.61 $104.38 $106.49 $113.65 $121.48 $124.43 $126.13 $85 $100 $115 $130 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Hotel Average Daily Rate Continues to Increase Orange County Average Daily Rate, 2009-2017 Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 178. Orange County Hotel Average Daily Occupancy Off Peak Average Daily Hotel Occupancy, 2009-2017 Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 58.9% 59.6% 64.1% 65.1% 65.1% 69.9% 70.5% 70.1% 66.8% 48% 56% 64% 72% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  • 179. $63.34 $60.87 $65.15 $68.00 $69.60 $79.45 $85.69 $87.18 $84.25 $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Revenue per Room Continues to Grow Orange County Average Revenue Per Room, 2009-2017 Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 180. Orange County Revenues from Tourism Rising (Adjusted for Inflation) State and Local Visitor Spending Tax Revenue (millions) 2018 State of the Community Report Source: Prepared for VisitNC by the US Travel Association #CHCSOTC $9.2 $8.9 $9.2 $9.6 $10.1 $10.5 $3.2 $3.5 $3.7 $3.9 $4.0 $4.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 State Tax Receipts ($2016) Local Tax Receipts ($2016)
  • 181. Domestic Visitor Spending Increases 4.4% Orange County Domestic Visitor Spending (millions) $184.45 $192.63 2015 2016 Source: Prepared for VisitNC by the US Travel Association #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 182. Domestic Visitor Expenditures (millions) on Steady Increase (Adjusted for Inflation $2016) Orange County Domestic Visitor Expenditures Source: Prepared for VisitNC by the US Travel Association #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report $151 $153 $193 $70 $110 $150 $190 $230 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
  • 183. 191 203 217 262 339 261255 254 282 355 467 394 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2017 2018 #CHCSOTC Air B&B Room Nights Increasing 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 184. #CHCSOTC Air B&B Annual Revenue Growing in Orange County *2018 projected based on trends 2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC $1,739,404 $4,000,892 $6,645,065 $9,823,136 2015 2016 2017 2018*
  • 185. What is it all Worth? #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 186. Orange County 2018 Total Assessed Value #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Chapel Hill, $7B (44%) Carrboro, $2.1B (13%) Hillsborough, $886 M (5.5%) Rest of County, $6B (37.3%) Total = $16 billion
  • 187. 2018 Orange County Commercial Assessed Value (millions) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Chapel Hill, $1.3 Billion (63%) Carrboro, $229 million (11%) Hillsborough, $296 million (14%) Rest of County, $234 million (11%) Total = $2.06 billion
  • 188. 2018 Orange County Residential Assessed Value #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Chapel Hill, $5 billion (39%) Carrboro, $1.6 billion (13%) Hillsborough, $516 million (4%) Rest of County, $5.7 billion (44%) Total = $13 billion
  • 189. 2018 Orange County Apartment Assessed Value (millions) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report Chapel Hill, $654 million (64%) Carrboro, $260 million (25%) Hillsborough, $74 million (7%) Rest of Orange County, $34 million (3%) Total = $1 billion
  • 190. 72.1% 77.1% 58.2% 95.5% 80.7% 18.5% 10.7% 33.4% 3.9% 12.9% 9.3% 12.2% 8.4% 0.6% 6.4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Rest of Orange County Total County Residential Commercial Apartment 2018 Orange County Assessed Value #CHCSOTC#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 191. Crime #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 192. Violent Crime Rate Per 100,000 By County Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year) 232.0 158 371.5 173 2001 2006 2011 2016 Chatham Orange #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 193. Violent Crime Rate Per 100,000 By County Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year) 397 158 773 173 240 2001 2006 2011 2016 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 194. Property Crime Rate Per 100,000 By County, 2001 - 2016 Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year) 3318.6 1,511 4,887 2,051 2001 2006 2011 2016 Chatham Orange #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 195. Property Crime Rate Per 100,000 By County, 2001 - 2016 Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year) 2,405 1,511 3,7154,887 2,051 1,885 2001 2006 2011 2016 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 196. Low crime, but you are a worrier #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 197. 2017-18 City and Town Property Tax Rates Source: NC Department of Revenue Cary, 0.3500 Apex, 0.3800 Raleigh, 0.4253 Chapel Hill, 0.508 Durham, 0.5786 Carrboro, 0.5894 Salisbury, 0.7096 Huntersville Cary Apex Raleigh Asheville Charlotte Concord Wilmington Fayetteville Chapel Hill Greenville Gastonia Wilson Hickory Durham Monroe Carrboro Burlington Winston-Salem Kannapolis Greensboro Jacksonville High Point Goldsboro Rocky Mount Salisbury #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 198. Cary, 0.965 Apex, 0.995 Raleigh, 1.0403 Chapel Hill, 1.3457 Durham, 1.3465 Carrboro, 1.4271 Cary Asheville Apex Raleigh Wilmington Huntersville Hickory Burlington Concord Greenville Wilson Charlotte Fayetteville Goldsboro Jacksonville Winston-Salem Kannapolis Rocky Mount Chapel Hill Durham Greensboro Monroe Salisbury High Point Gastonia Carrboro 2016 All Jurisdictions Property Tax Rates Source: NC Department of Revenue #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 199. Burlington, $1,246 Raleigh, $2,720 Durham, $2,841 Apex, $3,388 Cary, $3,449 Carrboro, $3,873 Chapel Hill, $4,979 Goldsboro Rocky Mount Burlington Fayetteville Greenville Hickory High Point Jacksonville Kannapolis Winston-Salem Wilson Salisbury Greensboro Gastonia Concord Monroe Wilmington Asheville Raleigh Charlotte Durham Huntersville Apex Cary Carrboro Chapel Hill 2017-18 Tax Assessed on Median Home Value Source: NC Department of Revenue, Zillow 5/2018 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 200. And at the same time there are those in our community with very little
  • 201. Percent of People in Poverty 2000 2006 2011 2016 Orange County 10% 14% 17% 13% Chatham County 9% 12% 11% 12% Durham County 11% 16% 20% 16% Wake County 7% 9% 12% 9% North Carolina 12% 15% 18% 15% United States 11% 13% 16% 14% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 202. Orange County SNAP Individuals Decline from Peak Monthly Participants Over Time Source: NC Department of Health and Human Services 9,898 11,779 6,111 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 Jan-18Jan-17Jan-16Jan-15Jan-14Jan-12Jan-11Jan-10Jan-09Jan-08Jan-07 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 203. Number of Children in Poverty Decreasing 1998 through 2016 2018 State of the Community Report Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) 2,773 4,822 3,229 1,848 2,952 2,462 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Orange County Chatham County #CHCSOTC
  • 204. Food Insecurity Rate by County (2016) Source: Feeding America 15.4% 13.2% 14.7% 10.9% 17.3% 12.7% North Carolina Orange Alamance Chatham Durham Wake #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 205. -2.9% -2.2% -2.0% -1.1% -0.9% -1.7% -9.0% -8.0% -7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% North Carolina Orange Alamance Chatham Durham Wake Percentage Point Change in Food Insecurity Rate 2013 to 2016 Source: Feeding America #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 206. Food Insecure People by County (2016) Source: Feeding America #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 18,460 22,930 7,480 50,890 Orange Alamance Chatham Durham
  • 208. Adult Smoking Rates Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation 14% 19% 15% 16% 14% 11% 22% 13% 19% 13% 10% 16% 16% #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 209. Adult Obesity Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation 23% 33% 26% 26% 23% 14% 26% 24% 23% 24% 21% 29% #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 210. Violent Crime Rate per 100,000 Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation 150 396 174 613 245 210 372 231 277 299 264 435 363 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 211. Disconnected Youth Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation 4% 13% 20% 13% 8% 6% 5% 6% 6% 4% 10% 13% #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 212. 9 12 6 9 10 13 17 18 11 17 15 18 Drug Overdose Deaths per 100,000 Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 213. 21% 16% 16% 17% 20% 24% 17% 29% 21% 25% 20% 19% Excessive Drinking Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 214. Access to Exercise Opportunities Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation 86% 86% 65% 92% 92% 97% 87% 95% 83% 94% 96% 88% #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 215. Prostate Cancer Rate per 100,000 2006-2010 vs. 2011-2015 Source: N.C. State Center for Health Statistics 154.9 167.6 134.2 160.9 142.8 178.5 109.4 108.3 96.9 101.8 84.1 118.3 NORTH CAROLINA Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake 2007-2011 2012-2016 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 216. Female Breast Cancer Rate per 100,000 2007-2011 vs. 2012-2016 Source: N.C. State Center for Health Statistics 159.2 166.0 181.0 173.0 170.6 169.5 157.5 181.2 169.4 174.6 177.0 168.0 NORTH CAROLINA Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake 2007-2011 2012-2016 #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 217. Orange County Teen Pregnancy Rates Decrease Per 1000 Girls, Age 15-17 Source: NC Health and Human Services 26.1 9.1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Too few to calculate rates #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 218. #CHCSOTC 2018 Health Indicators Health Indicator Orange County Chatham County Who is #1 Length of Life #1 #9 Orange Quality of Life Health Behaviors Clinical Care Social and Economic Factors Physical Environment Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 219. #CHCSOTC 2018 Health Indicators Health Indicator Orange County Chatham County Who is #1 Length of Life #1 #9 Orange Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare Health Behaviors Clinical Care Social and Economic Factors Physical Environment Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 220. #CHCSOTC 2018 Health Indicators Health Indicator Orange County Chatham County Who is #1 Length of Life #1 #9 Orange Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake Clinical Care Social and Economic Factors Physical Environment Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 221. #CHCSOTC 2018 Health Indicators Health Indicator Orange County Chatham County Who is #1 Length of Life #1 #9 Orange Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake Clinical Care #1 #17 Orange Social and Economic Factors Physical Environment Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 222. #CHCSOTC 2018 Health Indicators Health Indicator Orange County Chatham County Who is #1 Length of Life #1 #9 Orange Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake Clinical Care #1 #17 Orange Social and Economic Factors #2 #13 Union Physical Environment Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 223. #CHCSOTC 2018 Health Indicators Health Indicator Orange County Chatham County Who is #1 Length of Life #1 #9 Orange Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake Clinical Care #1 #17 Orange Social and Economic Factors #2 #13 Union Physical Environment #33 #19 Hyde Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 225. #CHCSOTC Summary • We are growing, but slowly, and we are less dense than peer communities. • Young workers working in Orange, and driving into Orange, is increasing. • Household income is out-pacing inflation. • Orange has number 1 in per capita income but lags in per capita sales. • Retail gap remains wide with additional retail opportunity on the horizon. • CHCCS continues to out perform peers. • Minority student reading is improving in CHCCS and the achievement gap is closing there.
  • 226. #CHCSOTC Summary • Health Indicators show Orange and Chatham lead neighbors and peers. • Rent is getting more expensive, but wage growth is outpacing it. • Housing prices are increasing, though rate of growth in Orange is slowest • Orange and Chatham properties are valuable and have a strong and growing tax bases. • Poverty, and children in poverty, are declining. • Crime is down. • We remain one the best places in the world to live, work, shop, play, learn, and raise a family. Add #
  • 227. #CHCSOTC Creighton Blackwell 2018 Chamber Board Vice Chair 2018 State of the Community Report
  • 228. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report 2018 InterCity Visit September 23-25 LAWRENCE, KANSAS Only 17 Spots Remaining Register at CarolinaChamber.org/ICV
  • 229. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report HELP YOUR LOCAL COMMUNITY, GET A CHANCE TO WIN $10,000 Step 1: Buy a $100 ticket for a 1 in 400 chance! Step 2: Attend the Party Thursday, October 25 from 5:30-8 p.m. See any Chamber Board Member or visit carolinachamber.org/raffle to purchase your ticket! Proceeds support the Chamber’s economic and community development work.
  • 230. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report The Chamber’s Hendrick Golf Classic October 8, 2018 | Governors Club | 8:30 am - 5 pm Come Play on Columbus Day!
  • 231. Thank you for attending the 2018 State of the Community Report