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THE SCIENCE OF START
Entrepreneurship Strategies that Work




                                        paulshawsmith
                                           scientific business strategy
1. INDUSTRY CHOICE


               IT

                      Publishing
Health




                              paulshawsmith
                                 scientific business strategy
INC 500 vs. TOTAL STARTS BY INDUSTRY
Source: Shane (2009)


                           Industry      Number of Inc 500   Firm starts          Percent of Starts
                                              firms
Pulp mills                                       6                 33                   18.182
Computer and office equipment                   99               2359                    4.197
Guided missiles, space vehicles, parts           2                 60                    3.333
Nonferrous rolling and drawing                  14                581                    2.410
Railroad car rental                              3                136                    2.206
Measuring and controlling devices               49               2482                    1.974
Paper mills                                      3                125                    2.400
Search and navigation devices                    6                310                    1.935
General industrial machinery                    26               2173                    1.197
Photographic equipment and supplies              7                646                    1.084
Manifold business forms                          3                281                    1.068
Household appliances                             4                390                    1.026
Electrical industrial apparatus                 11               1080                    1.019
Legal services                                  10             129207                    0.008
Eating and drinking places                      34             494731                    0.007
Carpentry and floor work contractors             4              66383                    0.006
Real estate operators                            5              90042                    0.006
Hotels and motels                                2              39177                    0.005
Painting and paper contractors                   2              43987                    0.005
Retail bakeries                                  1              22165                    0.005
Grocery stores                                   5             112473                    0.004
Used merchandise stores                          1              24442                    0.004
Automotive repair shops                          5             124725                    0.004
Beauty shops                                     3              79081                    0.004
Residential care                                 1              27710                    0.004
Videotape rental                                 1              27793                    0.004




                                                                           paulshawsmith
                                                                              scientific business strategy
COMPUTER AND OFFICE
    EQUIPMENT




 Inc 500              Total start ups
   99                      2,359




                        paulshawsmith
                           scientific business strategy
EATING AND DRINKING
      PLACES




 Inc 500              Total start ups
   34                    494,731




                        paulshawsmith
                           scientific business strategy
INDUSTRY AND INC 500
       Source: Shane (2009)




Computer and Office Equipment   Eating and Drinking Places
           (1/25)                       (1/14,550)




                                           paulshawsmith
                                              scientific business strategy
MEASURING DEVICES AND
 CONTROLLING DEVICES




      Inc 500           Total start ups
        49                  2,482




                             paulshawsmith
                                scientific business strategy
BEAUTY SHOPS




Inc 500        Total start ups
  3                 79,081




                 paulshawsmith
                    scientific business strategy
INDUSTRY AND INC 500
      Source: Shane (2009)




Measuring and controlling devices   Beauty Shops
                  (1/50)             (1/26,360)



                                        paulshawsmith
                                           scientific business strategy
INDUSTRY AND SURVIVAL (4 YEARS)
Source: Mata and Portugal (1994)



  Glass Products                                                                            85.7
  Spinning, weaving and finishing of cottons, artificial and synthetic fibre                81.0
  Spinning, weaving and finishing of wool                                                   76.9
  Slaughtering                                                                              68.0
  Knitting Industry                                                                         65.7
   Cut Stone and Stone Products                                                             65.6
  Footwear n.e.c.                                                                           65.4
  Iron and Steel Industry                                                                   64.6
  Tanning and Dressing of Leather                                                           63.6
  Machinery for the industry n.e.c.                                                         61.5
  Radio and TV Communication Equipment                                                      47.4
  Fabricated Metal Products n.e.c.                                                          46.7
  Manufacturing n.e.c.                                                                      44.4
  Cement Products                                                                           42.7
  Clay Products for Construction                                                            42.1
  Pottery                                                                                   41.2
  Household Textile Products                                                                40.9
  Made-to-Measure Clothing                                                                  37.9
  Pastry                                                                                    34.7
  Fish Preserving                                                                           25.0


                                                                               paulshawsmith
                                                                                  scientific business strategy
INDUSTRY AND SURVIVAL
  Source: Mata and Portugal (1994)




            Glass Products           Fish Preserving
               (3/20 failed)          (15/20 failed)



                                           paulshawsmith
                                              scientific business strategy
INDUSTRY AND PROFITABILITY
  Source: SARS (2008)


Industry Sector                                              % Profitable No. Companies   No. Profitable
Social and related community services                           58.7          7,256          4,261
Coal and petroleum products                                     56.3           197            111
Medical, dental and other health and veterinary services        56.0          2,416          1,352
Chemicals and chemical, rubber and plastic products             51.2          1,220           625
Scientific, optical and similar equipment                       51.1           264            135
Machinery and related items                                     50.5          2,803          1,416
Vehicles, parts and accessories                                 49.7          2,156          1,072
Leather, leather goods and fur (excl. footwear & clothing)      42.6           108             46
Transport equipment                                             41.8           208             87
Paper, printing and publishing                                  38.7          1,649           638
Wholesale trade                                                 38.4          8,484          3,260
Wood, wood products and furniture                               38.3          1,086           416
Food, drink and tobacco                                         37.0          1,580           584
Mining and quarrying                                            35.3           320            113
Research and scientific institutes                              30.2           344            104
Retail trade                                                    29.6          33,867         10,011
Employment (director of a company/member of CC)                 28.7           261             75
Transport, storage and communications                           28.6          7,953          2,278
Recreation and cultural services                                27.4          1,835           502
Educational services                                            26.0          2,175           566
Catering and accommodation                                      23.6          5,892          1,390
Agencies and other services                                     23.3          71,327         16,587
Agriculture, forestry and fishing                               23.3          6,248          1,456
Construction                                                    22.8          19,839         4,532
Personal and household services                                 22.6          2,659           600
Long term insurance                                             22.2            45             10

                                                                                          paulshawsmith
                                                                                             scientific business strategy
INDUSTRY AND PROFITABLITY
       Source: Lussier (1996)




 Coal and Petroleum products    Personal and household
       (12/20 profitable)       services (4/20 profitable)



                                           paulshawsmith
                                              scientific business strategy
5.00%
                                                          10.00%
                                                          15.00%
                                                          20.00%
                                                          25.00%
                                                          30.00%
                                                          35.00%
                                                          40.00%
                                                          45.00%




                                                           0.00%
                                                                   Source: Porter (2008)




                                         Security Brokers
                                               Soft Drinks
                                                  Software
                                        Pharamaceuticals
                                    Perfume, Cosmetics,โ€ฆ
                                             Ad Agencies
                                          Distilled Spirits
                                         Semiconductors
                                    Medical Instruments
                                         Mens' and Boys'โ€ฆ
                                                       Tires
                                                                                           INDUSTRY AND PROFITABILITY (ROIC)




                                   Household Appliances
                                          Malt Beverages
                                  Child Day Care Services
                                              Drug Stores
                                           Mobile Homes
                                         Book Publishing
                                       Soft Drink Bottling
                                            Knitting Mills
                                                    Hotels
                                      Mail-Order Houses
                                                   Airlines
   scientific business strategy
paulshawsmith
INDUSTRY AND ROIC
   Source Porter (2008)




       Soft drinks        Airlines
        (37.6%)           (5.9%)




                            paulshawsmith
                               scientific business strategy
TOTAL VC INVESTMENT PER INDUSTRY
Source: Wustenhagen & Teppo (2006)




         1 Bio technology
         2 Software
         3 Telecommunications
         4 Medicine and Pharmaceuticals
         5 Electrical engineering
         6 Mechanical engineering
         7 Computer hardware
         8 Industrial automation
         9 Computer semi-conductors
       10 Energy

                                          paulshawsmith
                                             scientific business strategy
1) INDUSTRY CHOICE




                     paulshawsmith
                        scientific business strategy
2. INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE




                         paulshawsmith
                            scientific business strategy
INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE
   Source: Barreria (2004)




       Growing                  No
       Ventures               Growth
         (15/20 profitable)   (5/20 profitable)




                                     paulshawsmith
                                        scientific business strategy
INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE
  Source: Fresser and Willard (1990)




  No industry
experience, 25%




                                               Industry
                                            experience, 75%




                                       paulshawsmith
                                          scientific business strategy
1) INDUSTRY CHOICE
2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE




                         paulshawsmith
                            scientific business strategy
3. PREPARATION




 To prepare or not to
 prepare, that is the   paulshawsmith
                           scientific business strategy
     question!?!
BUSINESS PLANS
Source: Lange, Mollov, Pearlmutter, Singh and Bygrave (2007)




      โ€œnew ventures launched with formal written
         business plans do not outperform ones
                launched without them.โ€




                                                               paulshawsmith
                                                                  scientific business strategy
BUSINESS PLAN?
  Source: Bhide (2000)

                                         79%

    21%
                         Yes!
                                No!




                                      paulshawsmith
                                         scientific business strategy
BUSINESS PLAN?
 Source: Duchesneau and Gartner (1990)




Successful                               Unsuccessful
  firms                                     firms
      (Avg. 237.3 hrs)                      (Avg. 84.9 hrs)




                                                   paulshawsmith
                                                      scientific business strategy
INC 500: IDEA TO START UP
      Source: Bhide (2000)




    Less than a
    month, 24%




                                        More than a
                                        month, 74%




                             paulshawsmith
                                scientific business strategy
1) INDUSTRY CHOICE
2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE
3) PREPARE




                         paulshawsmith
                            scientific business strategy
4. GET A TEAM




                paulshawsmith
                   scientific business strategy
PERCENTAGE SUCCEED (6 YRS)
    Source: Eisenhart & Schooven (19900




                Strong                    Weak
                Team                      Team
                  (15/20)                 (4/20)



                                             paulshawsmith
                                                scientific business strategy
DID YOU GROW TO 20 PEOPLE?
    Source: Stam and Schutjens (2004)




              (0.4% yes)                (3.3% yes)




                                          paulshawsmith
                                             scientific business strategy
1) INDUSTRY CHOICE
2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE
3) PREPARE
4) TEAM




                         paulshawsmith
                            scientific business strategy
5. HIGH INTIAL SALES




                       paulshawsmith
                          scientific business strategy
START UP SALES (8 YEARS)
     Source: Doutriaux (1992)




     < R400,000                  > R400,000
        Sales                       Sales
    (R3,312,000 avg.)           (R12,652,800 avg.)




                                         paulshawsmith
                                            scientific business strategy
START UP SIZE & GROWTH
    Source: Reynolds (1987)




                              paulshawsmith
                                 scientific business strategy
1) INDUSTRY CHOICE
2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE
3) PREPARE
4) TEAM
5) HIGH INTIAL SALES




                         paulshawsmith
                            scientific business strategy
6. SEEK ADVICE




                 paulshawsmith
                    scientific business strategy
GUIDED PREP AND GROWTH
 Source: Chrisman, McMullun and Hall (2005)




                                                Guided
                                              Preparation




                                                   paulshawsmith
                                                      scientific business strategy
ADVICE AND SURVIVAL
      Source: Watson (2007)




Advice from accountants 3< /yr   No advice from accountants
      (16/20 survived )               (9/20 survived)


                                         paulshawsmith
                                            scientific business strategy
NETWORKING & SURVIVAL
     Source: Watson (2007)




           Network range = How often an entrepreneur networks
                 x How widely an entrepreneur networks
                                                         paulshawsmith
                                                            scientific business strategy
INCUBATOR & SURVIVAL (5 YRS)
    Source: Phillips (2002) and Audretch (1995)




    Incubator average                             Industry average
        (3/20 fail)                                  (10/20 fail)


                                                         paulshawsmith
                                                            scientific business strategy
1) INDUSTRY CHOICE
2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE
3) PREPARE
4) TEAM
5) HIGH INTIAL SALES
6) ADVICE




                         paulshawsmith
                            scientific business strategy
7. GET AN EDUCATION




                      paulshawsmith
                         scientific business strategy
UNIVERSITY EDUCATION?
      Source: Fairlie and Robb (2007)




University drop outs                University graduates   Post graduate degree
                                    (25% greater sales)     (75% greater sales)



                                                              paulshawsmith
                                                                 scientific business strategy
INC 500 FOUNDERS
       Source: Bhide (2000)




     Other                    High school,
   advanced                       11%
  degree, 20%
                                      Two-year
                                     college, 6%


MBA, 15%


                                     Four-year
                                    college, 48%



                                       paulshawsmith
                                          scientific business strategy
1) INDUSTRY CHOICE
2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE
3) PREPARE
4) TEAM
5) HIGH INTIAL SALES
6) ADVICE
7) EDUCATION




                         paulshawsmith
                            scientific business strategy
8. USE FINANCIAL CONTROLS




                            paulshawsmith
                               scientific business strategy
BUGETING AND GROWTH
  Source: Davila and Foster (2005)




                                     paulshawsmith
                                        scientific business strategy
WHY DID YOU FAIL?
  Source: Lussier (1996)




  31%                      Creditor problems &
                           Slow account receivables




                                         paulshawsmith
                                            scientific business strategy
1) INDUSTRY CHOICE
2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE
3) PREPARE
4) TEAM
5) HIGH INTIAL SALES
6) ADVICE
7) EDUCATION
8) FINANCIAL CONTORL




                         paulshawsmith
                            scientific business strategy
9. START WITH MONEY




                      paulshawsmith
                         scientific business strategy
MONEY AND SURVIVAL
Source: Bruderl, Preisendorfer & Ziegler (1992)




              R250,000 or more                    R100,000 or less

                      (3/20 fail)                   (11/20 fail)


                                                      paulshawsmith
                                                         scientific business strategy
VC BACKING AND LISTING
Source: Gomper et al. (2009), Shane (2009), CIPRO




                      (1/10 list)                   (1/2500 list)




                                                         paulshawsmith
                                                            scientific business strategy
1) INDUSTRY CHOICE
2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE
3) PREPARE
4) TEAM
5) HIGH INTIAL SALES
6) ADVICE
7) EDUCATION
8) FINANCIAL CONTORL
9) MONEY




                         paulshawsmith
                            scientific business strategy
10. TIME




           paulshawsmith
              scientific business strategy
TIME AND SURVIVAL RATES
   Source: Evans and Leighton (1989)




                                       paulshawsmith
                                          scientific business strategy
START UP EXP AND SURVIVAL
  Source: Bruderl, Ziegler & Preisendorfer (1992)




      Start up                                      No start up
     Experience                                     Experience
             (3/20 failed)                            (6/20 failed)




                                                            paulshawsmith
                                                               scientific business strategy
1) INDUSTRY CHOICE
2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE
3) PREPARE
4) TEAM
5) HIGH INTIAL SALES
6) ADVICE
7) EDUCATION
8) FINANCIAL CONTORL
9) MONEY
10) TIME


                         paulshawsmith
                            scientific business strategy
11. MANY GOOD DECISIONS




                          paulshawsmith
                             scientific business strategy
GROWTH FACTORS
  Source: Schutjens and Wever (2000)




๏ƒผ Team               ๏‚ง One person biz
๏ƒผ Well prepared      ๏‚ง Less prepared
๏ƒผ High initial sales ๏‚ง Low initial sales
  (46% grew)                           (4% grew)


                                            paulshawsmith
                                               scientific business strategy
๏ƒผ Team
๏ƒผ Well prepared    =
๏ƒผ High initial sales
                       10 times
                       more likely
                        to grow



                          paulshawsmith
                             scientific business strategy
Predicting New Firm Survival
      Source: Cooper et. al (1994)




                                     paulshawsmith
                                        scientific business strategy
1) INDUSTRY CHOICE
2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE
3) PREPARE
4) TEAM
5) HIGH INTIAL SALES
6) ADVICE
7) EDUCATION
8) FINANCIAL CONTORL
9) MONEY
10) TIME
11) MANY GOOD DECISIONS
                          paulshawsmith
                             scientific business strategy
www.paulshawsmith.co.za
paulshawsmith@gmail.com
073 954 1346




                     paulshawsmith
                        scientific business strategy

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The Science of Start

  • 1. THE SCIENCE OF START Entrepreneurship Strategies that Work paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 2. 1. INDUSTRY CHOICE IT Publishing Health paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 3. INC 500 vs. TOTAL STARTS BY INDUSTRY Source: Shane (2009) Industry Number of Inc 500 Firm starts Percent of Starts firms Pulp mills 6 33 18.182 Computer and office equipment 99 2359 4.197 Guided missiles, space vehicles, parts 2 60 3.333 Nonferrous rolling and drawing 14 581 2.410 Railroad car rental 3 136 2.206 Measuring and controlling devices 49 2482 1.974 Paper mills 3 125 2.400 Search and navigation devices 6 310 1.935 General industrial machinery 26 2173 1.197 Photographic equipment and supplies 7 646 1.084 Manifold business forms 3 281 1.068 Household appliances 4 390 1.026 Electrical industrial apparatus 11 1080 1.019 Legal services 10 129207 0.008 Eating and drinking places 34 494731 0.007 Carpentry and floor work contractors 4 66383 0.006 Real estate operators 5 90042 0.006 Hotels and motels 2 39177 0.005 Painting and paper contractors 2 43987 0.005 Retail bakeries 1 22165 0.005 Grocery stores 5 112473 0.004 Used merchandise stores 1 24442 0.004 Automotive repair shops 5 124725 0.004 Beauty shops 3 79081 0.004 Residential care 1 27710 0.004 Videotape rental 1 27793 0.004 paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 4. COMPUTER AND OFFICE EQUIPMENT Inc 500 Total start ups 99 2,359 paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 5. EATING AND DRINKING PLACES Inc 500 Total start ups 34 494,731 paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 6. INDUSTRY AND INC 500 Source: Shane (2009) Computer and Office Equipment Eating and Drinking Places (1/25) (1/14,550) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 7. MEASURING DEVICES AND CONTROLLING DEVICES Inc 500 Total start ups 49 2,482 paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 8. BEAUTY SHOPS Inc 500 Total start ups 3 79,081 paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 9. INDUSTRY AND INC 500 Source: Shane (2009) Measuring and controlling devices Beauty Shops (1/50) (1/26,360) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 10. INDUSTRY AND SURVIVAL (4 YEARS) Source: Mata and Portugal (1994) Glass Products 85.7 Spinning, weaving and finishing of cottons, artificial and synthetic fibre 81.0 Spinning, weaving and finishing of wool 76.9 Slaughtering 68.0 Knitting Industry 65.7 Cut Stone and Stone Products 65.6 Footwear n.e.c. 65.4 Iron and Steel Industry 64.6 Tanning and Dressing of Leather 63.6 Machinery for the industry n.e.c. 61.5 Radio and TV Communication Equipment 47.4 Fabricated Metal Products n.e.c. 46.7 Manufacturing n.e.c. 44.4 Cement Products 42.7 Clay Products for Construction 42.1 Pottery 41.2 Household Textile Products 40.9 Made-to-Measure Clothing 37.9 Pastry 34.7 Fish Preserving 25.0 paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 11. INDUSTRY AND SURVIVAL Source: Mata and Portugal (1994) Glass Products Fish Preserving (3/20 failed) (15/20 failed) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 12. INDUSTRY AND PROFITABILITY Source: SARS (2008) Industry Sector % Profitable No. Companies No. Profitable Social and related community services 58.7 7,256 4,261 Coal and petroleum products 56.3 197 111 Medical, dental and other health and veterinary services 56.0 2,416 1,352 Chemicals and chemical, rubber and plastic products 51.2 1,220 625 Scientific, optical and similar equipment 51.1 264 135 Machinery and related items 50.5 2,803 1,416 Vehicles, parts and accessories 49.7 2,156 1,072 Leather, leather goods and fur (excl. footwear & clothing) 42.6 108 46 Transport equipment 41.8 208 87 Paper, printing and publishing 38.7 1,649 638 Wholesale trade 38.4 8,484 3,260 Wood, wood products and furniture 38.3 1,086 416 Food, drink and tobacco 37.0 1,580 584 Mining and quarrying 35.3 320 113 Research and scientific institutes 30.2 344 104 Retail trade 29.6 33,867 10,011 Employment (director of a company/member of CC) 28.7 261 75 Transport, storage and communications 28.6 7,953 2,278 Recreation and cultural services 27.4 1,835 502 Educational services 26.0 2,175 566 Catering and accommodation 23.6 5,892 1,390 Agencies and other services 23.3 71,327 16,587 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 23.3 6,248 1,456 Construction 22.8 19,839 4,532 Personal and household services 22.6 2,659 600 Long term insurance 22.2 45 10 paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 13. INDUSTRY AND PROFITABLITY Source: Lussier (1996) Coal and Petroleum products Personal and household (12/20 profitable) services (4/20 profitable) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 14. 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 0.00% Source: Porter (2008) Security Brokers Soft Drinks Software Pharamaceuticals Perfume, Cosmetics,โ€ฆ Ad Agencies Distilled Spirits Semiconductors Medical Instruments Mens' and Boys'โ€ฆ Tires INDUSTRY AND PROFITABILITY (ROIC) Household Appliances Malt Beverages Child Day Care Services Drug Stores Mobile Homes Book Publishing Soft Drink Bottling Knitting Mills Hotels Mail-Order Houses Airlines scientific business strategy paulshawsmith
  • 15. INDUSTRY AND ROIC Source Porter (2008) Soft drinks Airlines (37.6%) (5.9%) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 16. TOTAL VC INVESTMENT PER INDUSTRY Source: Wustenhagen & Teppo (2006) 1 Bio technology 2 Software 3 Telecommunications 4 Medicine and Pharmaceuticals 5 Electrical engineering 6 Mechanical engineering 7 Computer hardware 8 Industrial automation 9 Computer semi-conductors 10 Energy paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 17. 1) INDUSTRY CHOICE paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 18. 2. INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 19. INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE Source: Barreria (2004) Growing No Ventures Growth (15/20 profitable) (5/20 profitable) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 20. INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE Source: Fresser and Willard (1990) No industry experience, 25% Industry experience, 75% paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 21. 1) INDUSTRY CHOICE 2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 22. 3. PREPARATION To prepare or not to prepare, that is the paulshawsmith scientific business strategy question!?!
  • 23. BUSINESS PLANS Source: Lange, Mollov, Pearlmutter, Singh and Bygrave (2007) โ€œnew ventures launched with formal written business plans do not outperform ones launched without them.โ€ paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 24. BUSINESS PLAN? Source: Bhide (2000) 79% 21% Yes! No! paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 25. BUSINESS PLAN? Source: Duchesneau and Gartner (1990) Successful Unsuccessful firms firms (Avg. 237.3 hrs) (Avg. 84.9 hrs) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 26. INC 500: IDEA TO START UP Source: Bhide (2000) Less than a month, 24% More than a month, 74% paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 27. 1) INDUSTRY CHOICE 2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE 3) PREPARE paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 28. 4. GET A TEAM paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 29. PERCENTAGE SUCCEED (6 YRS) Source: Eisenhart & Schooven (19900 Strong Weak Team Team (15/20) (4/20) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 30. DID YOU GROW TO 20 PEOPLE? Source: Stam and Schutjens (2004) (0.4% yes) (3.3% yes) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 31. 1) INDUSTRY CHOICE 2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE 3) PREPARE 4) TEAM paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 32. 5. HIGH INTIAL SALES paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 33. START UP SALES (8 YEARS) Source: Doutriaux (1992) < R400,000 > R400,000 Sales Sales (R3,312,000 avg.) (R12,652,800 avg.) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 34. START UP SIZE & GROWTH Source: Reynolds (1987) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 35. 1) INDUSTRY CHOICE 2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE 3) PREPARE 4) TEAM 5) HIGH INTIAL SALES paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 36. 6. SEEK ADVICE paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 37. GUIDED PREP AND GROWTH Source: Chrisman, McMullun and Hall (2005) Guided Preparation paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 38. ADVICE AND SURVIVAL Source: Watson (2007) Advice from accountants 3< /yr No advice from accountants (16/20 survived ) (9/20 survived) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 39. NETWORKING & SURVIVAL Source: Watson (2007) Network range = How often an entrepreneur networks x How widely an entrepreneur networks paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 40. INCUBATOR & SURVIVAL (5 YRS) Source: Phillips (2002) and Audretch (1995) Incubator average Industry average (3/20 fail) (10/20 fail) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 41. 1) INDUSTRY CHOICE 2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE 3) PREPARE 4) TEAM 5) HIGH INTIAL SALES 6) ADVICE paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 42. 7. GET AN EDUCATION paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 43. UNIVERSITY EDUCATION? Source: Fairlie and Robb (2007) University drop outs University graduates Post graduate degree (25% greater sales) (75% greater sales) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 44. INC 500 FOUNDERS Source: Bhide (2000) Other High school, advanced 11% degree, 20% Two-year college, 6% MBA, 15% Four-year college, 48% paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 45. 1) INDUSTRY CHOICE 2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE 3) PREPARE 4) TEAM 5) HIGH INTIAL SALES 6) ADVICE 7) EDUCATION paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 46. 8. USE FINANCIAL CONTROLS paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 47. BUGETING AND GROWTH Source: Davila and Foster (2005) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 48. WHY DID YOU FAIL? Source: Lussier (1996) 31% Creditor problems & Slow account receivables paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 49. 1) INDUSTRY CHOICE 2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE 3) PREPARE 4) TEAM 5) HIGH INTIAL SALES 6) ADVICE 7) EDUCATION 8) FINANCIAL CONTORL paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 50. 9. START WITH MONEY paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 51. MONEY AND SURVIVAL Source: Bruderl, Preisendorfer & Ziegler (1992) R250,000 or more R100,000 or less (3/20 fail) (11/20 fail) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 52. VC BACKING AND LISTING Source: Gomper et al. (2009), Shane (2009), CIPRO (1/10 list) (1/2500 list) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 53. 1) INDUSTRY CHOICE 2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE 3) PREPARE 4) TEAM 5) HIGH INTIAL SALES 6) ADVICE 7) EDUCATION 8) FINANCIAL CONTORL 9) MONEY paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 54. 10. TIME paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 55. TIME AND SURVIVAL RATES Source: Evans and Leighton (1989) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 56. START UP EXP AND SURVIVAL Source: Bruderl, Ziegler & Preisendorfer (1992) Start up No start up Experience Experience (3/20 failed) (6/20 failed) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 57. 1) INDUSTRY CHOICE 2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE 3) PREPARE 4) TEAM 5) HIGH INTIAL SALES 6) ADVICE 7) EDUCATION 8) FINANCIAL CONTORL 9) MONEY 10) TIME paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 58. 11. MANY GOOD DECISIONS paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 59. GROWTH FACTORS Source: Schutjens and Wever (2000) ๏ƒผ Team ๏‚ง One person biz ๏ƒผ Well prepared ๏‚ง Less prepared ๏ƒผ High initial sales ๏‚ง Low initial sales (46% grew) (4% grew) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 60. ๏ƒผ Team ๏ƒผ Well prepared = ๏ƒผ High initial sales 10 times more likely to grow paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 61. Predicting New Firm Survival Source: Cooper et. al (1994) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 62. 1) INDUSTRY CHOICE 2) INDUSTRY EXPEREINCE 3) PREPARE 4) TEAM 5) HIGH INTIAL SALES 6) ADVICE 7) EDUCATION 8) FINANCIAL CONTORL 9) MONEY 10) TIME 11) MANY GOOD DECISIONS paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 63. www.paulshawsmith.co.za paulshawsmith@gmail.com 073 954 1346 paulshawsmith scientific business strategy