The document summarizes recent economic developments in the UK and globally. It notes that the UK economy saw negative GDP growth in Q2 2019, with manufacturing continuing to decline. PMIs indicate contraction in agriculture, manufacturing and services in September due to Brexit uncertainty. The global economy is also slowing, partly due to pressures in Germany and worsening US trade wars. M&A activity in the UK and US has declined amid ongoing uncertainties from Brexit and trade tensions.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2018Latvijas Banka
Macroeconomic Developments Report:
External Demand;
Financial Conditions;
Sectoral Development;
GDP Analysis from the Demand Side;
Labour Market;
Costs and Prices;
Conclusions and Forecasts;
The Fiscal Impact of Inequality Measures. Analysis of Scenarios.
This is a revision presentation on the state of the UK economy five months on from the June 23rd Brexit vote.
Overview:
Post-Brexit impact yet to fully materialize in the macro data
Inflation is back with rising commodity prices and a weaker currency since June 2016
Labour market performance remains strong
But scale of UK current account deficit is a problem
Structural weaknesses on the UK supply-side are unlikely to be resolved soon despite renewed focus on infrastructure and industrial policy in the new May/Hammond government
Productivity and skills gaps hurt UK competitiveness
Risk is that Brexit will lower the UK’s trend growth rate if the economy is not “match-fit” post 2019
Lots of external uncertainties as we head into 2017
The merchandise trade deficit widened in June, hitting yet another record of $3.6 billion, and much worse than expected. The gap was up from $3.5 billion in May (revised from $3.3 bln). Exports finally managed to rise after a nasty skid in the prior four months, when they dropped by a cumulative 10%.
But even that is not good news, as the modest 0.6% gain was entirely due to higher prices, as volumes fell a
hefty 1.4%.
Meantime, imports rose 0.8% and volumes were up 0.7%. This suggest that trade will drag even more heavily on overall growth in Q2, as we expect real net exports to chop more than 4 percentage points from GDP. We are quite comfortable being on the low side for Q2 GDP—we are now looking for a 2.0% drop in Q2, versus the BoC’s latest assumption of -1.0%, and today’s figures put the risks squarely to the downside.
We do look for some recovery in trade and overall growth in Q3, but suffice it to say that today’s brutal trade results cast some serious doubt on the Bank of Canada’s
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2018Latvijas Banka
Macroeconomic Developments Report:
External Demand;
Financial Conditions;
Sectoral Development;
GDP Analysis from the Demand Side;
Labour Market;
Costs and Prices;
Conclusions and Forecasts;
The Fiscal Impact of Inequality Measures. Analysis of Scenarios.
This is a revision presentation on the state of the UK economy five months on from the June 23rd Brexit vote.
Overview:
Post-Brexit impact yet to fully materialize in the macro data
Inflation is back with rising commodity prices and a weaker currency since June 2016
Labour market performance remains strong
But scale of UK current account deficit is a problem
Structural weaknesses on the UK supply-side are unlikely to be resolved soon despite renewed focus on infrastructure and industrial policy in the new May/Hammond government
Productivity and skills gaps hurt UK competitiveness
Risk is that Brexit will lower the UK’s trend growth rate if the economy is not “match-fit” post 2019
Lots of external uncertainties as we head into 2017
The merchandise trade deficit widened in June, hitting yet another record of $3.6 billion, and much worse than expected. The gap was up from $3.5 billion in May (revised from $3.3 bln). Exports finally managed to rise after a nasty skid in the prior four months, when they dropped by a cumulative 10%.
But even that is not good news, as the modest 0.6% gain was entirely due to higher prices, as volumes fell a
hefty 1.4%.
Meantime, imports rose 0.8% and volumes were up 0.7%. This suggest that trade will drag even more heavily on overall growth in Q2, as we expect real net exports to chop more than 4 percentage points from GDP. We are quite comfortable being on the low side for Q2 GDP—we are now looking for a 2.0% drop in Q2, versus the BoC’s latest assumption of -1.0%, and today’s figures put the risks squarely to the downside.
We do look for some recovery in trade and overall growth in Q3, but suffice it to say that today’s brutal trade results cast some serious doubt on the Bank of Canada’s
Quarterly Report. Perspectives on Global and Spanish economy Q2-2019Círculo de Empresarios
The main international organisations (IMF, OECD, European Commission, etc.) continue to downgrade their growth expectations in light of the new geopolitical and economic scenario. Q1 2019 has been marked by the darkening economic outlook, the waning confidence of the private sector, and the mounting global uncertainty, which is at record levels of 2016, mainly due to the impact of trade tensions between the US and China, the fears associated with Brexit, the weakening of the multilateral trade, the lack of leadership, and the rise of populism.
Globally, the slowdown in growth is confirmed, although better prospects are maintained for 2020. In advanced economies, there is a less robust & synchronised progress, symptoms of nearing the end of the expansion phase of the business cycle, and the US & euro area economies are decoupling. The US maintains a growth rate of over 2% per year & an unemployment rate at record lows, although the expansionary effect of its fiscal policy is beginning to subside. On the other hand, there is less dynamism in the EU, mainly due to the weakness of the German industry, the political & economic fragility of Italy, and the institutional crisis of the United Kingdom stemming from the indetermination of the final agreement of the Brexit.
Macroeconomic imbalances persist in emerging countries, mainly in Turkey and Argentina, given their high debt levels, and the evolution of their growth & inflation rates. All this in a context contingent on the monetary policy of the main central banks, the evolution of oil price & other raw materials, the trade war, and lower profits margins.
View more documents https://circulodeempresarios.org/en/coleccion/informe-trimestral-en/
On June 23rd 2016 the UK voted in a referendum to leave the European Union.
Prime Minister David Cameron resigned the morning after the vote
A few weeks later, Theresa May was elected leader of the Conservative Party and new Prime Minister.
The terms of the UK’s new economic relationship with the EU remain uncertain.
Hard Brexit
Means that the United Kingdom leaves the EU Single Market and trades under World Trade Organization rules
Under WTO rules, each member must grant the same market access—including charging the same tariffs—to all other members as the most favoured nation
Soft Brexit
Involves the option of staying in the Single Market (like Norway)
As a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), Norway has a free trade agreement with the European Union, which means that there are no tariffs on trade between the two
The United Kingdom is the fifth-largest national economy in the world measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP), ninth-largest in the world measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), and nineteenth-largest in the world measured by GDP per capita, comprising 4% of world GDP. It is the second-largest economy in the European Union by both metrics. In 2016, the UK was 19/28 for GDP growth in Europe, with the third lowest unemployment rate.
The United Kingdom’s post-Brexit future is uncertain. But one thing is clear: boosting economic growth will depend heavily on addressing long-standing productivity challenges.
It is likely that the impending trade war will be limited to individual product groups. If so, growth will continue in Finland this and the next year. The economic recovery shows that Finland has not been endowed with the exceptionally serious structural problems as alleged. Because of spending cuts and other measures, the strong economic development will not improve the situation of all population groups equally. The growth of income inequality should be mitigated by updating basic social security, which would include index adjustments of benefits no later than 2019.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
So far Sterling and Japanese and European equity markets have borne the brunt of the initial shock, while the FTSE is down only 3.3% since Thursday and most major and emerging market currencies have been reasonably well behaved (see Figure 1).
But there are still far many more questions than answers and the situation remains extremely fluid.
For starters there is no precedent for a country leaving the EU and thus no clear-cut rulebook to rely on. The government has limited institutional capacity to start negotiations with the UK’s 27 EU partners until Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered and no timeline has been provided for when this will happen (assuming it is triggered at all).
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the mammoth task ahead, the Leave campaign leaders have been very short on specifics regarding the mechanics and timing of the UK’s exit from the EU, the likely shape of future trade treaties and national policies such as immigration. Prime Minister Cameron’s de-facto resignation and wholesale changes in personnel in the opposition Labour Party are adding to the head-scratching.
Moreover, it is not one country seeking to leave the EU, but a union of four countries – England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – which further complicates matters as both Scotland and Northern Ireland seem intent on remaining part of the EU and potentially breaking free from the UK.
At this point in time, all we can do is take stock of what we know (or at least we think we know) and what we don’t know (but can tentatively try to forecast).
I would conclude, as I did in Europe – the Final Countdown (21 June 2016), that the many layers of political, legal, economic and financial uncertainty are likely to keep UK investment, consumption and employment, as well as Sterling on the back-foot for months to come. Financial market volatility is also likely to remain elevated in coming weeks.
In this context the US Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates on hold in coming months and the European Central Bank can probably afford to do little for the time being. The Bank of England is likely to seriously contemplate cutting its policy rate while the Bank of Japan will be under renewed pressure to curb soaring Yen strength.
Of course, British policy-makers and business associations have come out and said the right things in order to limit the carnage and contagion. But they have far more limited room to reflate the economy and fade gyrations in financial markets than they did during the 2008-2009 great financial crisis. They are not in control at this juncture and it is not obvious who is.
Quarterly Report. Perspectives on Global and Spanish economy Q2-2019Círculo de Empresarios
The main international organisations (IMF, OECD, European Commission, etc.) continue to downgrade their growth expectations in light of the new geopolitical and economic scenario. Q1 2019 has been marked by the darkening economic outlook, the waning confidence of the private sector, and the mounting global uncertainty, which is at record levels of 2016, mainly due to the impact of trade tensions between the US and China, the fears associated with Brexit, the weakening of the multilateral trade, the lack of leadership, and the rise of populism.
Globally, the slowdown in growth is confirmed, although better prospects are maintained for 2020. In advanced economies, there is a less robust & synchronised progress, symptoms of nearing the end of the expansion phase of the business cycle, and the US & euro area economies are decoupling. The US maintains a growth rate of over 2% per year & an unemployment rate at record lows, although the expansionary effect of its fiscal policy is beginning to subside. On the other hand, there is less dynamism in the EU, mainly due to the weakness of the German industry, the political & economic fragility of Italy, and the institutional crisis of the United Kingdom stemming from the indetermination of the final agreement of the Brexit.
Macroeconomic imbalances persist in emerging countries, mainly in Turkey and Argentina, given their high debt levels, and the evolution of their growth & inflation rates. All this in a context contingent on the monetary policy of the main central banks, the evolution of oil price & other raw materials, the trade war, and lower profits margins.
View more documents https://circulodeempresarios.org/en/coleccion/informe-trimestral-en/
On June 23rd 2016 the UK voted in a referendum to leave the European Union.
Prime Minister David Cameron resigned the morning after the vote
A few weeks later, Theresa May was elected leader of the Conservative Party and new Prime Minister.
The terms of the UK’s new economic relationship with the EU remain uncertain.
Hard Brexit
Means that the United Kingdom leaves the EU Single Market and trades under World Trade Organization rules
Under WTO rules, each member must grant the same market access—including charging the same tariffs—to all other members as the most favoured nation
Soft Brexit
Involves the option of staying in the Single Market (like Norway)
As a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), Norway has a free trade agreement with the European Union, which means that there are no tariffs on trade between the two
The United Kingdom is the fifth-largest national economy in the world measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP), ninth-largest in the world measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), and nineteenth-largest in the world measured by GDP per capita, comprising 4% of world GDP. It is the second-largest economy in the European Union by both metrics. In 2016, the UK was 19/28 for GDP growth in Europe, with the third lowest unemployment rate.
The United Kingdom’s post-Brexit future is uncertain. But one thing is clear: boosting economic growth will depend heavily on addressing long-standing productivity challenges.
It is likely that the impending trade war will be limited to individual product groups. If so, growth will continue in Finland this and the next year. The economic recovery shows that Finland has not been endowed with the exceptionally serious structural problems as alleged. Because of spending cuts and other measures, the strong economic development will not improve the situation of all population groups equally. The growth of income inequality should be mitigated by updating basic social security, which would include index adjustments of benefits no later than 2019.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
So far Sterling and Japanese and European equity markets have borne the brunt of the initial shock, while the FTSE is down only 3.3% since Thursday and most major and emerging market currencies have been reasonably well behaved (see Figure 1).
But there are still far many more questions than answers and the situation remains extremely fluid.
For starters there is no precedent for a country leaving the EU and thus no clear-cut rulebook to rely on. The government has limited institutional capacity to start negotiations with the UK’s 27 EU partners until Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered and no timeline has been provided for when this will happen (assuming it is triggered at all).
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the mammoth task ahead, the Leave campaign leaders have been very short on specifics regarding the mechanics and timing of the UK’s exit from the EU, the likely shape of future trade treaties and national policies such as immigration. Prime Minister Cameron’s de-facto resignation and wholesale changes in personnel in the opposition Labour Party are adding to the head-scratching.
Moreover, it is not one country seeking to leave the EU, but a union of four countries – England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – which further complicates matters as both Scotland and Northern Ireland seem intent on remaining part of the EU and potentially breaking free from the UK.
At this point in time, all we can do is take stock of what we know (or at least we think we know) and what we don’t know (but can tentatively try to forecast).
I would conclude, as I did in Europe – the Final Countdown (21 June 2016), that the many layers of political, legal, economic and financial uncertainty are likely to keep UK investment, consumption and employment, as well as Sterling on the back-foot for months to come. Financial market volatility is also likely to remain elevated in coming weeks.
In this context the US Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates on hold in coming months and the European Central Bank can probably afford to do little for the time being. The Bank of England is likely to seriously contemplate cutting its policy rate while the Bank of Japan will be under renewed pressure to curb soaring Yen strength.
Of course, British policy-makers and business associations have come out and said the right things in order to limit the carnage and contagion. But they have far more limited room to reflate the economy and fade gyrations in financial markets than they did during the 2008-2009 great financial crisis. They are not in control at this juncture and it is not obvious who is.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
1. Global activity easing
2. Slowdown most apparent in euro area
3. China transitioning to slower growth, service economy
4. Central banks pulling back from tightening
5. UK growth dependent on Brexit: exit deal could see GDP growth > 1.0% this year, no deal growth could be < 0.5%
6. Risks to global growth tilting to downside
Quantic Asset Management Monthly Review April 2019
Find out more about our services by visiting https://www.quantic-am.com/en/and https://www.tirthas.com/
Working with Toby, Harry and Robbie we created a Brexit presentation for our economic exam talking about different macro economic factors and political parties.
80% Pass
The EU Referendum: The Future of the UK and Europe - Third Edition - July 2016Ewan Kinnear
The EU Referendum - the Future of the UK and Europe. Lloyds Banking Group has prepared this fact based and objective document to help inform about the technical and mechanical aspects around the various models for a future UK-EU relationship and what happens next.
Macroeconomic Developments Report, December 2017Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
2. SUMMARY
RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS:
► The UK saw negative GDP growth confirmed in the second quarter of the
year (Q2) with manufacturing activity continuing to decline through the
summer.
► Purchasing Managers' Index (PMIs) indicate that agriculture,
manufacturing and services all contracted in September, with Brexit and
associated uncertainty cited in each case.
► The global economy is continuing to slow partly resulting from domestic
pressures in Germany and worsening US trade wars.
► M&A activity in both the UK and the US continues to decline.
LOOKING FORWARD:
► Trade tensions: The trade war between the US and China continues to
undermine confidence and hamper economic activity.
► Brexit: Uncertainty of the UK and European Union’s ability to secure and
agree a Brexit deal before the 31st October deadline and the possibility
of a No Deal Brexit as a result.
► European economy: The Eurozone is facing a challenging economic
outlook, exemplified by the ongoing difficulties faced by the German
manufacturing sector.
Fabian Society |YF Finance & Economics | 1
3. Main Economic Indicators
Indicator
Latest
change
6-month
trend
Comment
GDP growth - No updated GDP data since last month.
Current economic
activity Manufacturing and construction PMIs remained in contraction
territory, while the services PMI also dipped into contraction.
Business confidence - There has been no significant change in business confidence
over the last few months.
Consumer confidence
(GFK / You Gov) change
- Consumer confidence as measured by two major indicators
declined in September.
FTSE100/250 - The steady recovery since July was reversed by a sharp fall at the
end of September
Sterling / US Dollar - -
The pound recovered slightly on the reduced likelihood of a no-
deal Brexit, before being hit again by economic and political
uncertainty.
Brent crude prices - - No significant change in oil price in September as it fluctuated
driven by political and economic outlook.
UK 10yr Gilts UK long term debt yields have continued to fall, along with similar
movements in Europe and the US.
4. -3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
2018 2019 2020 2021
GDP(YoY,%growth)
Oxford: No Deal Oxford: Baseline Capital: Repeated Delays
Capital: Deal Capital: No Deal S&P: Baseline
S&P: No Deal IMF Baseline IMF No border distruption
IMF Severe
Source : Oxford Economics, Capital Economics, S&P, and IMF
UK Brexit scenario forecasts, GDP growth
Fabian Society |YF Finance & Economics | 3
Brexit scenario narratives
Oxford Economics
► Baseline: Contingent on an orderly departure of the UK from the EU.
► No-deal: UK leaves the EU in a disorderly fashion in October 2019.
Capital Economics
► Deal: Assumes a Brexit deal is struck on 31 October 2019.
► Repeated delays: Assumes Brexit delayed repeatedly until the end of 2021.
► No-deal: UK leaves the EU without a trade deal on 31 Oct 2019.
Standard & Poor’s (S&P)
► Baseline: Orderly (though potentially delayed) departure from the EU and a
transition period until the end of 2020 Brexit.
► No-deal: Disorderly exit that limits UK access to EU markets or imposed
tariffs/nontariff barriers that reduces competitiveness.
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
► Baseline: Assumes a Brexit deal was struck in Q2 2019.
► No-deal: No-deal at the end of Q2 2019 with no border disruptions and a small
Noborderdisruptions increase in UK sovereign/corporate spreads.
► No-deal: No-deal at the end of Q2 2019 with significant border disruptions that raise
Severe UK import costs for firms/households and a more severe tightening in financial
conditions.
Comparison of Brexit scenario with other forecasters
5. Fabian Society |YF Finance & Economics | 4Source : Oxford Economics, Capital Economics, and Reuters
Despite the Prime Minister’s proposed Brexit deal the final outcome
remains illusive amid continuing political uncertainty
► Boris Johnson’s government has outlined its plans for a Brexit deal
with the European Union. It seeks to replace the Irish backstop
proposal in the plans agreed between Theresa May’s government
and the European Union, which were a key sticking point in her
attempts to achieve parliamentary approval.
► The latest plans would instead see the whole of UK – including
Northern Ireland – leave the EU’s customs union, but with Northern
Ireland retaining the EU Single Market’s regulations for goods.
► The pound recovered some of its value in September following the
government’s statement of intention to strike a deal.
► However, the latest indications from the EU suggest this proposition
has not been well received, with attention turning instead to the
likely length of a further extension to Article 50, prompting further
political uncertainty in the UK.
45%
35%
35%
31%
30%
25%
20%
18%
18%
18%
17%
17%
15%
15%
15%
14%
14%
5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Bank of Montreal (October)
Capital Economics…
Reuters (median)…
Matchbook (October)
Goldman Sahs (September)
JP Morgan (October)
Paddy Power (October)
Boyle Sports (October)
Betfred (October)
Betfair (October)
Unibet (October)
Bet Victor (October)
Sky Bet (October)
Smarkets (October)
Betfair Exchange (October)
Coral (October)
Labrokes (October)
Danske Bank (October)
Probabiloty weightings
No-deal Brexit probabilities
8. $0bn
$10bn
$20bn
$30bn
$40bn
$50bn
$60bn
Jan 2017 Jul 2017 Jan 2018 Jul 2018 Jan 2019 Jul 2019
Exports Imports
Source: Destatis and US Census Bureau
Germany Index of New Orders in Manufacturing US Trade with China
The global economy is continuing to slow, with domestic pressures in
Germany, and US trade wars worsening
Fabian Society |YF Finance & Economics | 7
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 Jan 2018 Jul 2018 Jan 2019 Jul 2019
Total Domestic Non-Domestic
9. Source: Destatis and US Census Bureau
Different EU Downside scenarios
European ‘manufacturing virus’ is spreading amidst subdued inflation
Fabian Society |YF Finance & Economics | 8
►The probability of an economic recession in the Eurozone is rising rapidly amid weak foreign demand and an industrial recession in Germany that is
having a deeper and more long-lasting impact than expected.
►The monetary arsenal of a recent stimulus package deployed by the European Central Bank (ECB) could help to contain recession risks. However, the
lack of pre-emptive fiscal easing to accompany the ECB action raises the risk of recession next year, as external threats – Brexit, US tariffs on European
exports, escalating trade tensions – look unlikely to abate.
►Italy: Economy remains stagnant with GDP having managed to grow only in one of the last five quarters.
►Spain: Private consumption is expected to continue to slow as the pace of job creation eases.
►France: Has been the bright spot in the Eurozone picture with businesses in France increasing their staff numbers in September driven by robust private
consumption due to fiscal support, contained inflation and rising wages that will continue to help offset the external weakness.
Downside probability weightings for EU countries
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
GDP-YoYGrowth(%)
Trade war escalation (EU market) Protracted eurozone slowdown (EU market)
US recession hits the global economy (EU market) No-deal Brexit (EU market)
EM upturn as trade war fears fade (EU market)
10%
15%
15%
20%
40%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
US recession hits the global economy (EU market)
No-deal Brexit (EU market)
EM upturn as trade war fears fade (EU market)
Protracted eurozone slowdown (EU market)
Trade war escalation (EU market)
10. Consumer confidence remains subdued relative to recent
years
► UK Consumer confidence from the two major surveys has continued a downward trend.
► Confidence levels reported by YouGov are at the lowest levels since 2013, while the GfK index has continued a negative run
___ from the start of 2016.
Fabian Society |YF Finance & Economics | 9Source: YouGov and GfK
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
YouGov/Cebr, Consumer Confidence Index GfK, Consumer Confidence Index
11. Source: Mergermarket
US: ANNOUNCED M&A DEALS*
UK: ANNOUNCED M&A DEALS*
* Lapsed / withdrawn bids are excluded
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) activity in the UK and the US declined
in Q3 amid uncertainty generated by Brexit and US trade wars
Fabian Society |YF Finance & Economics | 10
Recent UK M&A news:
► The owner of Paddy Power Betfair has
agreed to buy the company behind Poker
Stars in a $6 billion share deal to create the
world’s largest online betting and gambling
company by revenue, seeking to take
advantage of the opening up of U.S.
markets. (Source: Reuters.)
► Blackstone Group has struck a deal to buy
a portfolio of US industrial warehouses from
Colony Capital for $5.9bn, including debt,
furthering its bet on the continued growth
of e-commerce. (Source: Financial News.)
► Tokio Marine has agreed to buy US
insurance group Pure Group for $3.1bn, as
the fourth-largest property and casualty
insurer globally continues with its merger
and acquisition strategy. (Source:
International Investment.)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
$bn
#
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
$bn
#
Total number of deals (announced) Value of deals for the past three months
12. THANK YOU
Lead author and economist
Amarvir Singh-Bal
Contributors
Contact address:
economynetwork@youngfabians.org.uk
Victoria Parrett
Policy & Parliamentary Liaison Officer
