4. I) Economic consequences
I) Single market
Trade agreement between all EU member states.
Britain leaves the single market then pound £ slumped to its lowest level.
44% of Britain’s Exports go to the EU.
UK have power to limit the number of migrants.
5. Effect on Trade & Economy
61% of UK small business exports go to the EU being able to free trade with EU.
Lower GDP of 2.2% in 2030 of UK
- The Rand Corporation estimates that UK GDP would fall by 4.9% ($ 140 billion)
over 10 years, while the EU would lose only 0.7% of GDP.
- According to the British government's Department for Exiting the European
Union, UK GDP would lose 8% growth over 15 years.
6.
7. Foreign Direct Investment
After Brexit, higher trade costs with the EU would be likely to depress FDI.
22% fall in FDI over the next decade.
UK’s car industry imply that production fall by 12% and prices would rises by 2.5%.
New gateway for the foreign firms other then EU market.
8. Employment Problem In U.K
“Several thousand jobs currently located in the United Kingdom could be relocated to
Paris as part of the Brexit”, said Bruno Le Maire, the French Minister of Economy.
The banks run away :
Ex: US bank JPMorgan, which employs 16,000 people in the UK,
warned Friday it could move 1,000 to 4,000 jobs out of the country
Without an agreement with the European Union the Bank of England anticipates up
to 75,000 job cuts in finance at the end of March 2019.
9. II) Stock Market/ Currencies
On 24 June FTSE 100 fell from 6338.10 to 5806.13 in first ten minutes.
FTSE 100 index had lost £ 85 billion till 27 June.
On the same day pound sterling fell to its lower level around 10%.
10.
11.
12. - The future of G7 ?
- In 2050 a new G8 ? ( China, Mexico, Indonesia …. )
- The European Union is cut by 14% of its GDP.
- She also loses a seat on the UN Security Council
- A geopolitical situation dangerous ( UK unity with Scotland and Ireland )
III) Political consequences
13. Conclusion
- A weakened Europe.
- Crucial negotiations for the future of several countries.
- The escape of the banking world.
Editor's Notes
Put graph of british stock market, 2015 until 2018