Daniele Poponi. Energy Technology and Policy Division. International Energy Agency. Autumn Seminar 2015. Climate change: Implications for technological developments and industrial competitiveness. Jornada organizada por FUNSEAM y la Cátedra de Energía de Orkestra-Instituto Vasco de Competitividad con la colaboración de Fundación Repsol. 4 de Noviembre de 2015. CAMPUS REPSOL. Madrid, España

1. © OECD/IEA 2015
The IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives
project: analysis on the
low-carbon technology mix for long-term
sustainable energy scenarios
Climate Change: Implications for Technological
Developments and Industrial Competitiveness
Madrid, 4th November 2015
Daniele Poponi
Energy Technology and Policy Division
International Energy Agency

2. © OECD/IEA 2015
ETP 2014 ETP 2015 ETP 2016 ETP 2017
Part 1. Setting the Scene
Global Outlook, Tracking Clean Energy Progress
Part 2. Driving the Change (Thematic Focus) *
Harnessing
Electricity’s
Potential
Mobilising
Innovation to
Accelerate
Climate Action
Building Urban
Energy Systems
TBD
• Securing sustainable
resources
• Investing in
sustainable
infrastructure
Partner Country
India China Mexico
TBD
(Indonesia?)
ETP publication programme

3. © OECD/IEA 2014
Technology mix for carbon
emissions reduction in the 2DS
A portfolio-approach is needed for a
least-cost low-carbon scenario
Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions
6DS
2DS
Source: ETP 2015

4. © OECD/IEA 2014
Primary energy mix in the ETP scenarios
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
2012
Fossil
Non-fossil
2050
2012
Fossil
Non-fossil
2050
2012
Fossil
Non-fossil
2050
6DS 4DS 2DS
EJ
Other renewables
Hydro
Biomass and waste
Nuclear
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
The primary energy mix is much more diversified in the 2DS
Source: ETP 2015

5. © OECD/IEA 2015
Thanks to 40 years of innovation efforts, solar PV generation is
an increasingly cost competitive option
0
3
6
9
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GW
USD/kWh
Levelised Cost of Electricity Installed capacity
Cost of electricity generated and utility-scale PV capacity installations in Germany
Some renewables are on fast-track
deployment
Source: ETP 2015

6. © OECD/IEA 2014
Energy efficient technologies are also
constantly improving
Fuel economy is improving as policy increasingly drives
the deployment of more efficient vehicle technologies
Fuel economy trends to 2025 for selected countries

7. © OECD/IEA 2014
The use of fossil fuels is gradually
more efficient and sustainable
The economic benefit of improved power generation
efficiency is partly offsetting poor low-carbon policies
Carbon intensity of coal-fired power generation

8. © OECD/IEA 2015
Aggressive cost reductions are needed in the near term to
make these projections a reality
Projected Levelised Cost of Electricity of coal
power generation in Asia
Assumptions on Capture Cost and
Performance in the 2DS
CCS: from early stage support to
future technology competitiveness

9. © OECD/IEA 2014
Clean energy deployment is not
ramping up fast enough
Evidence shows that despite continued progress in many areas, for the
first time none of the technologies are in line with 2DS goals

10. © OECD/IEA 2014
Supporting Energy Innovation:
The right policy at the right time
The right support depends on the maturity of the
technology and the degree of market uptake

11. © OECD/IEA 2015
Annual energy-related direct CO2 emissions in the industrial sector in the 2DS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO2
Energy efficiency Fuel and feedstock switching Recycling Innovative processes
6DS
2DS
Source: ETP 2015
Innovation is essential for sustainable
growth in the industrial sector
The deployment of innovative technologies is crucial to
making a 2DS scenario possible

12. © OECD/IEA 2014
There is no “one-size fits all” solution
that can meet all local requirements
National circumstances and resources will drive
different technology portfolios and pathways
Regional technology shares in primary energy supply
Source: ETP 2015

13. © OECD/IEA 2015
Photo Credit flickr.com - AIDG (2015)
Innovation in emerging economies
has delivered….
Photo Credit: Pallava Bagla/Corbis - the
Guardian (2011)

14. © OECD/IEA 2015
Linking urban electricity and heat systems
ETP 2016: Building Sustainable
Urban Energy Systems
Source: Fraunhofer IBP/IEA-EBC Annex 64 (2015)
Urban areas offer a significant potential for
low-carbon technology deployment

15. © OECD/IEA 2014
Thank you

16. © OECD/IEA 2015
Investment in our future pays off…
…and it is cost effective to make the transition

17. © OECD/IEA 2014
Energy-related CO2 emission abatement
by region between 6DS and 2DS
In the 2DS, select emerging economies contribute the majority
of energy-related CO2 emissions reduction.
Global energy-related Co2 reductions between 6DS and 2DS by region
6DS
2DS