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The Hidden ABCs of
Product Management:
Reveal Your Product
Blind Spots
Blind Spots Can Sneak Up On Us...
Hidden ABCs of Product Management
Assumptions
Biases
Costs
Hi 👋, I’m Wes Galliher!
Connect or say hi: @wesgalliher
/in/wesgalliher/
wes@prodpad.com
Current: US Business Lead @ProdPad
Past: PM/Mgr @Pivotal Labs
Dir of Tech @Children’s Health Dallas
Product @startups in pharma/healthcare
Way Past: Chemistry PhD @Stanford
● Busy product manager
● Decision-making, but with little authority
● Trusts expertise of team
● Decisions impact long-term success
of both product & company
An all-too-familiar story...
DMaaS
(decision making as-a-service)
But what goes into those decisions
that we might not see...
Assumptions
Biases
Costs
Assumptions:
what we believe to be true based on our experience
or information available on hand.
Why can this
be a problem?
Assumptions:
what we believe to be true based on our experience
or information available on hand.
Team diversity is valuable!
✔ Different experiences
✔ Different perspectives
✔ Different biases
Assumptions:
what we believe to be true based on our experience
or information available on hand.
You don’t know
what you don’t know
Spectrum of decision-making
Quick intuition Analysis paralysis
Spectrum of decision-making
Quick intuition Analysis paralysis
Spectrum of decision-making
Quick intuition Analysis paralysis
Consideration:
Is it a Type 1 or Type 2 decision?
(largely irreversible) (reversible)
We make
assumptions to
fill gaps in our
data so we can
move forward
UX
Business
Tech
We make
assumptions to
fill gaps in our
data so we can
move forward
● Proto-personas
● Proto-journey maps
● Research, in general
● Business model canvas
● Willingness to pay
● Value
● Lead scoring
● How tech will get used
● Walking skeletons
● Integrations
UX
Business
Tech
Assumptions
Biases
Costs
Our natural biases & blind
spots cause us to miss things
● Anchoring
● Confirmation
● Hindsight
● Status quo
● Commitment escalation
● Anchoring
● Confirmation
● Hindsight
● Status quo
● Commitment escalation
We miss…
the way numbers are
affecting our decisions
● Anchoring
● Confirmation
● Hindsight
● Status quo
● Commitment escalation
We miss…
information that
disproves our initial
assumptions
● Anchoring
● Confirmation
● Hindsight
● Status quo
● Commitment escalation
We miss…
learnings from
past failures
● Anchoring
● Confirmation
● Hindsight
● Status quo
● Commitment escalation
We miss…
potential outcomes
offered by taking
new actions
● Anchoring
● Confirmation
● Hindsight
● Status quo
● Commitment escalation
We miss…
opportunities to avoid
more costs or problems
by continuing
Assumptions
Biases
Costs
“Complexity cost is the
debt you accrue by complicating
features or technology in order
to solve problems.”
- Kris Gale, former VP of
Engineering @Yammer
“Can’t you just add a
toggle here…”
“Can’t you just add a
toggle here…”
1 2 3 4
“Can’t you just add a
toggle here…”
“Can’t you just add a
toggle here…”
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
“Can’t you just add a
toggle here…”
16 states
“Can’t you just add a
toggle here…”
“How hard would it be to add this toggle?"
- shows a lack of understanding of total costs.
"How much more complicated does it get
with this toggle?"
- gets us closer to the right discussion.
https://firstround.com/review/The-one-cost-engineers-and-product-managers-dont-consider/
Cost of Delay
● Combines urgency & value
● Effective decisions require understanding both
● Cost can be $$, strategic, competitive, or customer value
https://www.leadingagile.com/2017/05/cost-delay-project-management/
Cost of Tech Debt
How will today’s decisions
impact tomorrow?
What are the risks of ignoring these?
Assumptions Biases Costs
● Don’t capture
potential value
● Build wrong thing
● Misuse of product
● Limited learning
● Don’t break out of
status quo
● Narrow focus
● Unnecessary complexity
● Debt (many kinds)
● Quality
issues
Now that you’ve
uncovered them…
Tips & Tricks
DISCOVER
TRACK
COMMUNICATE
HIRE
DISCOVER
Do Continuous Discovery because...
You don’t know what you don’t know (requires exploration)
You need to validate what you KNOW you don’t know
(requires collecting data)
Involve the whole team in discovery
FACT CHECK
DATA
COLLECTION
INTUITION EXPLORATION
Known
Known
Unknown
Unknown
TRACK
Use Trello or ProdPad to track
assumptions that still need
to be validated
Note assumptions across all areas
Revisit assumptions regularly
COMMUNICATE
Be transparent & explicit about assumptions
when making & communicating decisions
Communicate trade-offs, especially hidden costs
HIRE
Culture add, not culture fit
Diverse panel of interviewers
Thanks!
Connect or say hi: @wesgalliher
/in/wesgalliher/
wes@prodpad.com💬
bit.ly/product-blind-spots
bit.ly/art-science-decisions
Want to learn more about embracing uncertainty in decision making?
Want today’s slides? Snap a pic
of this slide!
📸

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The Hidden ABCs of Product Management: Reveal Your Product Blind Spots

Editor's Notes

  1. Reference Jeff Bezos Type 1 vs Type 2 Decisions (https://www.inc.com/jeff-haden/amazon-founder-jeff-bezos-this-is-how-successful-people-make-such-smart-decisions.html) Consider quoting Teresa Torres from https://www.producttalk.org/2018/04/time-in-product-discovery/
  2. Reference Jeff Bezos Type 1 vs Type 2 Decisions (https://www.inc.com/jeff-haden/amazon-founder-jeff-bezos-this-is-how-successful-people-make-such-smart-decisions.html) Consider quoting Teresa Torres from https://www.producttalk.org/2018/04/time-in-product-discovery/
  3. Reference Jeff Bezos Type 1 vs Type 2 Decisions (https://www.inc.com/jeff-haden/amazon-founder-jeff-bezos-this-is-how-successful-people-make-such-smart-decisions.html) Consider quoting Teresa Torres from https://www.producttalk.org/2018/04/time-in-product-discovery/
  4. Anchoring: we tend to be influenced by numbers, even invalid ones. Numbers affect our decisions, even when we should ignore them Confirmation: Our initial decisions or assumptions become self-fulfilling prophecies; we seek out evidence that confirms our initial decisions, ignoring information against them Hindsight: Once we know something, we can’t remember when we did not know it, challenging our ability to learn from past failures Status quo: people feel greater regret for bad outcomes that result from new actions taken than for bad consequences that are the consequence of inaction; sticking to choices that worked in the past is often safe & less difficult decision Commitment escalation: making decisions and committing resources doesn’t necessarily guarantee a reward; difficult to accept sunk costs
  5. Anchoring: we tend to be influenced by numbers, even invalid ones. Numbers affect our decisions, even when we should ignore them Confirmation: Our initial decisions or assumptions become self-fulfilling prophecies; we seek out evidence that confirms our initial decisions, ignoring information against them Hindsight: Once we know something, we can’t remember when we did not know it, challenging our ability to learn from past failures Status quo: people feel greater regret for bad outcomes that result from new actions taken than for bad consequences that are the consequence of inaction; sticking to choices that worked in the past is often safe & less difficult decision Commitment escalation: making decisions and committing resources doesn’t necessarily guarantee a reward; difficult to accept sunk costs
  6. Anchoring: we tend to be influenced by numbers, even invalid ones. Numbers affect our decisions, even when we should ignore them Confirmation: Our initial decisions or assumptions become self-fulfilling prophecies; we seek out evidence that confirms our initial decisions, ignoring information against them Hindsight: Once we know something, we can’t remember when we did not know it, challenging our ability to learn from past failures Status quo: people feel greater regret for bad outcomes that result from new actions taken than for bad consequences that are the consequence of inaction; sticking to choices that worked in the past is often safe & less difficult decision Commitment escalation: making decisions and committing resources doesn’t necessarily guarantee a reward; difficult to accept sunk costs
  7. Anchoring: we tend to be influenced by numbers, even invalid ones. Numbers affect our decisions, even when we should ignore them Confirmation: Our initial decisions or assumptions become self-fulfilling prophecies; we seek out evidence that confirms our initial decisions, ignoring information against them Hindsight: Once we know something, we can’t remember when we did not know it, challenging our ability to learn from past failures Status quo: people feel greater regret for bad outcomes that result from new actions taken than for bad consequences that are the consequence of inaction; sticking to choices that worked in the past is often safe & less difficult decision Commitment escalation: making decisions and committing resources doesn’t necessarily guarantee a reward; difficult to accept sunk costs
  8. Anchoring: we tend to be influenced by numbers, even invalid ones. Numbers affect our decisions, even when we should ignore them Confirmation: Our initial decisions or assumptions become self-fulfilling prophecies; we seek out evidence that confirms our initial decisions, ignoring information against them Hindsight: Once we know something, we can’t remember when we did not know it, challenging our ability to learn from past failures Status quo: people feel greater regret for bad outcomes that result from new actions taken than for bad consequences that are the consequence of inaction; sticking to choices that worked in the past is often safe & less difficult decision Commitment escalation: making decisions and committing resources doesn’t necessarily guarantee a reward; difficult to accept sunk costs
  9. Anchoring: we tend to be influenced by numbers, even invalid ones. Numbers affect our decisions, even when we should ignore them Confirmation: Our initial decisions or assumptions become self-fulfilling prophecies; we seek out evidence that confirms our initial decisions, ignoring information against them Hindsight: Once we know something, we can’t remember when we did not know it, challenging our ability to learn from past failures Status quo: people feel greater regret for bad outcomes that result from new actions taken than for bad consequences that are the consequence of inaction; sticking to choices that worked in the past is often safe & less difficult decision Commitment escalation: making decisions and committing resources doesn’t necessarily guarantee a reward; difficult to accept sunk costs
  10. https://firstround.com/review/The-one-cost-engineers-and-product-managers-dont-consider/ An application that does 20 things is more difficult to refactor than an application that does one thing, so changes to its code will take longer Sometimes complexity is a necessary cost
  11. Humans aren’t good at distinguishing between urgency and value